Suff
09-13-2003, 07:18 AM
Betting away from the Favorite here....for just a couple of reasons. primary among them is my slant on handicapping to win money.
Pretty wild... tough to go against. The resume is filled with the who's who....Sky Mesa (why SM was the real Sky Mesa) Zavata, why why why, Erinsoutern...et al,,,
Has raced with the Toughies.
But? I think the paper is sharper than the horse.
Starting with the Last race. Running line is decieving. Pretty Wild broke extremley well....had a jump on the field...took the early lead...allowed a 50-1 shot to come inside and take the lead...sat just off him for two furlongs...took the lead roundiing the turn...was taken down to the rail (that was glass that day) and drew off..(But ,,Prado was on the whip inside the 1/8th pole ) Did win going away, and race was fast...But not "super fast" ..This was Travers day we saw many fractions quicker than this that day and many others...Saratoga had the most consistent fastest First quarters I've seen in Years,
A look at the Paper tells me that his best effort have come Fresh and in the Mud. If that 5 length win took anything out of him,,,I see him as vunerable in this race.... even MORE SO on this ONE TURN Mile. Appears to be the Main ZIP in here...as not to much speed showing up on paper except the woodbine shipper way out in the 8 hole. It looks like he'll clear early. But thats to foggy to really say..Because many of these are cutting back from 8,9 panels. One or two of these may have more get Up and Go than they've had to show...
On a class level they all Fit... A handfull in here have Graded experience across the Board...
If this One Horse (pretty wild) don't clear where does he go? He's never circled Horses in his life. I think he gets Burned up on the rail here. Distinct Vision needs the same trip, and coming from the 3 hole figures to contest. Plus if I get one of my question marks to show some Zip and its "off to the races",, and to the window.
I'm going to land on and use the 9 horse(your bluffing 20-1) because I see a new top, best effort, High Potential to get needed trip scenario.
Debuted with a 90, and won with a 91. and I think he has a 95-101 in him today. And that will very likely put him on the wire or ticket at a price.
3 for 6 on fast dirt...and the only race that looks bad on Fast dirt? Thats the Colita-Auto city race. The PIk4 players will remember that race as really the KEY race of the entire Inner meet... Colita and Auto City went on to win Stakes and a handful of Winners and BIG runners came out of that race.
His other Aqd loss was to another nice NY horse...Torre and Zim.
I think he'll prefer Belmont to Aqd...and I think those Nice Aqd efforts from him were on a surface and Oval he does'nt prefer..so I give them more weight than many might.
I'm making excuses for his "Don't fit' races.
6/5/03 First off a layoff, 6 furlong to short.
6/17 ..sloppy track
7-19 First Turf...First time in open allowNW2 company (2nd)
8-3 2nd turf,,,,Wet Grass (SF)
8-20 First Fast dirt effort in 3 months.. Wins by 4, earns a 91
Has 2 Bullets, one is a BEST of 53 last week..From the 9 hole he has alot of Ground to work with before the turn .Might get a easy look at the Field and a nice clean trip.
He has come from 10 lengths off to win by a 1/2 length and come From 6 lengths off to win by 3 1/2. Needs heat up front and I think he'll get it. Plenty of races to watch to see if the track might be leaning my way for this trip too...
I'm seeing more and more Horses prepping in these Optional Claimers...seen a Grade 1 winner this year prep in an OClaimer40K. People don't want to see Grade 1 and 2 horses Prep in NW2 or 3 or even a Money allowance with out a TOP winning effort.
plus , the trainers don't want to burn up the condition.
.. the price is inconsequential to class. You have to know the field...to assume its a cheap field of claimers probably is wrong.
Connections are sharp.. Luzzi up and Trombetta. Trombetta 24% from a Healthy 96 starts this year.
I'll watch the Track and The Surface, and use this Horse in and around a few others. At a Price,,,even under the favorite.
Your Bluffing makes the ticket and at a price...Makes the ticket.
Pretty wild... tough to go against. The resume is filled with the who's who....Sky Mesa (why SM was the real Sky Mesa) Zavata, why why why, Erinsoutern...et al,,,
Has raced with the Toughies.
But? I think the paper is sharper than the horse.
Starting with the Last race. Running line is decieving. Pretty Wild broke extremley well....had a jump on the field...took the early lead...allowed a 50-1 shot to come inside and take the lead...sat just off him for two furlongs...took the lead roundiing the turn...was taken down to the rail (that was glass that day) and drew off..(But ,,Prado was on the whip inside the 1/8th pole ) Did win going away, and race was fast...But not "super fast" ..This was Travers day we saw many fractions quicker than this that day and many others...Saratoga had the most consistent fastest First quarters I've seen in Years,
A look at the Paper tells me that his best effort have come Fresh and in the Mud. If that 5 length win took anything out of him,,,I see him as vunerable in this race.... even MORE SO on this ONE TURN Mile. Appears to be the Main ZIP in here...as not to much speed showing up on paper except the woodbine shipper way out in the 8 hole. It looks like he'll clear early. But thats to foggy to really say..Because many of these are cutting back from 8,9 panels. One or two of these may have more get Up and Go than they've had to show...
On a class level they all Fit... A handfull in here have Graded experience across the Board...
If this One Horse (pretty wild) don't clear where does he go? He's never circled Horses in his life. I think he gets Burned up on the rail here. Distinct Vision needs the same trip, and coming from the 3 hole figures to contest. Plus if I get one of my question marks to show some Zip and its "off to the races",, and to the window.
I'm going to land on and use the 9 horse(your bluffing 20-1) because I see a new top, best effort, High Potential to get needed trip scenario.
Debuted with a 90, and won with a 91. and I think he has a 95-101 in him today. And that will very likely put him on the wire or ticket at a price.
3 for 6 on fast dirt...and the only race that looks bad on Fast dirt? Thats the Colita-Auto city race. The PIk4 players will remember that race as really the KEY race of the entire Inner meet... Colita and Auto City went on to win Stakes and a handful of Winners and BIG runners came out of that race.
His other Aqd loss was to another nice NY horse...Torre and Zim.
I think he'll prefer Belmont to Aqd...and I think those Nice Aqd efforts from him were on a surface and Oval he does'nt prefer..so I give them more weight than many might.
I'm making excuses for his "Don't fit' races.
6/5/03 First off a layoff, 6 furlong to short.
6/17 ..sloppy track
7-19 First Turf...First time in open allowNW2 company (2nd)
8-3 2nd turf,,,,Wet Grass (SF)
8-20 First Fast dirt effort in 3 months.. Wins by 4, earns a 91
Has 2 Bullets, one is a BEST of 53 last week..From the 9 hole he has alot of Ground to work with before the turn .Might get a easy look at the Field and a nice clean trip.
He has come from 10 lengths off to win by a 1/2 length and come From 6 lengths off to win by 3 1/2. Needs heat up front and I think he'll get it. Plenty of races to watch to see if the track might be leaning my way for this trip too...
I'm seeing more and more Horses prepping in these Optional Claimers...seen a Grade 1 winner this year prep in an OClaimer40K. People don't want to see Grade 1 and 2 horses Prep in NW2 or 3 or even a Money allowance with out a TOP winning effort.
plus , the trainers don't want to burn up the condition.
.. the price is inconsequential to class. You have to know the field...to assume its a cheap field of claimers probably is wrong.
Connections are sharp.. Luzzi up and Trombetta. Trombetta 24% from a Healthy 96 starts this year.
I'll watch the Track and The Surface, and use this Horse in and around a few others. At a Price,,,even under the favorite.
Your Bluffing makes the ticket and at a price...Makes the ticket.