Ranking the state breeding programs

[Valuist]

Based on what I've seen, here's how I'd rank them. No numbers to back it up; just opinion on the horses and how strong the stakes programs are in each state:

1. Kentucky
2. Florida
3. California
4. New York
5. Illinois
6. Maryland
7. Louisiana
8. Texas
9. New Jersey
10. ???

Its hard to separate states like Ohio, Washington and Minnesota.

[cj]

Maryland behind Illinois? No way in hell.

[kenwoodallpromos]

What exactly is your criteria? Being a left coaster, I know nothing about MN's breeding program but some Wa ponies can win in Ca! I know Great Lakes has the slowest pars and Idaho is among the lowest purses.
Due to FC's status of NY Bred (the only I did not pick him in the Ky Derby!), and considering studs can be located anywhere, I would say state bred $ added to the purses may make a big difference.

[Valuist]

CJ-

I almost had Maryland ahead of Illinois. Maybe I'm biased, since I'm from Illinois and have seen all the Illinois champions days going back xxx years. You probably could make a case for them but I've seen the Maryland Million day cards and I thought they were pretty similar to the Champions day in Illinois.

Ken-

The only criteria is opinion. Its 100% subjective. I'm sure others will have varying opinions. I don't know enough about Washington breds because I don't play Emerald to say whether they're any better than Minnesota breds.

[VetScratch]

Valuist,
Are we asking which state is doing the most to promote state-bred breeding (relatively or absolutely) or which state produces the most superior runners per 1000 foals?

Maryland certainly has the great tradition, but I don't know the particulars about their breeding incentives today.

Illinois was declining until the new incentive scheme where state-breds get extra money for beating open company. This is like giving every good state-bred two or three extra conditions to run through.

[cj]

Most of the better Maryland breds run in the non-statebred races, they don't need those races. You don't see many Ill breds competing in top notch open company like the MD breds.

I know its all just opinion...you may have guessed, I'm from Baltimore!

[Valuist]

Vet Scratch-

I was referring to strictly the quality of the runners. Illinois has SNW1X and SNW2X races but no SNW3X, which they had for a few years in the mid 90s. Yes its true the par for a SNW2X is about the equivalent of a 7500 or 10000 open claimer but every now and then a decent runner comes thru. Buck's Boy, the BC Turf winner, is probably the best that I've seen. Dust Commander is the only Illinois bred to win the Ky Derby but that goes back 30 plus years.

[sjk]

For what it's worth, here are some average speed figures for state-bred maiden races. I have mixed colts and fillies and all age groups so the accuracy is not that great, but directionally, they should be OK.



STATE COND AVGSR
CA M 73.99
NY M 63.26
NJ M 62.21
ILL M 60.31
LA M 59.70
OK M 58.95
TX M 56.46
IA M 50.99
MI M 50.60
OH M 49.47
NEB M 48.90
MN M 47.46
NM M 45.51
IND M 42.32

[kenwoodallpromos]

You have to tell me where you got those figures! Great source!! Actually, if adjusted for par times, Il with Great Lakes maybe should be higher. Mtnr and Ca tracks are among the fastest pars. I think maidens and stakes show high and more average purses with quality animals!

[sjk]

These are averages of figures I made myself.

[Tom]

If you didn't count all the SB races at FL, then your data is not representatice. If you did inlcude FL, then the figure seems way too hig to me.
JMHO. And I admitt, I have no use for the NY breeder's program.

[sjk]

TRACK COND avgsr
AQ inner M 61.93
AQU M 63.17
BEL M 67.91
FL M 54.41
SAR M 67.61

[gillenr]

There's a reason they are called "ill breds". I've seen many SMCL where I wouldn't take the whole field for the price of one. They ruin a card.

[Valuist]

Sjk--

Very interesting numbers you posted. It looks like the one that I had underrated was the NJ breds, and also Okie breds. Illinois was right around where I figured they'd be. I see Indiana is at the bottom; after a couple nights of playing Hoosier, I'm not surprised. You can win a Indy Mdn Clmr w/a Beyer in the low 30s.

[Suff]

The NY Breeding Program is 2nd to none and the envy of every state in the country.

The Kentucky Breeders association just drafted new legislation this week to alter the Kentucky Laws so they can continue to lead the nation.

I was reading that the Breeders Assoc in KY has begun to see and feel the success of the NY Breeding program. And they are reacting to to that.

I bet a lot of Maiden races. And when I do.. the sleeper state is MD. For some reason MD gets no respect..but they have an excellent breeding program and nice stallions standing there.

I have them

KY
NY
MD
CA

[VetScratch]

This thread is sort of like jockey colony comparisons where regional pride has little to do with where jockeys actually ride.

A desired pedigree match may be conceived anywhere, but where the foal is dropped determines which state appears on the NJC registration papers. Because KY is the epicenter of the breeding industry, numerous mares are shipped to KY, covered by KY sires, and returned to their home states to complete gestation. This is especially true for Mid-American states from north to south.

Alternatively, a lot of mares from other states remain in KY to foal KY-breds because of the quality and depth of buyers at the KY weanling and yearling sales. For this purpose, KY attracts a lot of good mares from NY, FL, and CA. However, "KY-bred" has lost some of its perceived premium value in recent years since many top sires now stand in Japan, Australia, and inside the European Union.

To promote local sires, some states recognize conceived-and-foaled as a superior state-bred classification, and races can be written for state-conceived-and-foaled or simply for state-foaled horses.

Not all tracks even offer restricted state-bred maiden races. In some states, state-breds may be "preferred" or enticed with add-on purse money, but outsiders are not absolutely excluded.

The state-level par time comparisons are informative but should probably be restricted to state-bred MSW races or broken out into several classes. Every state produces it's share of cheap horses, but some states offer few restricted MCL opportunities for cheap state-breds while other states provide numerous opportunities.

[sjk]

The averages I posted were Msw races only. Sorry if that was not clear.

[kenwoodallpromos]

Your speed figure averages can serve many purposes depending on how you break them down by track;=trainer, distance, days since last race, compared to variations in last workout, It could be a good pattern indicator for the average horse or category of horse. You should seriously consider what factors you would average and write a annual book of averages and sell on and offline!!!

[sjk]

I appreciate your idea, but I've never considered myself much of an author or salesman.

The way things stand there is only one person (me) to be mad about it when things do not go as expected; probably best to leave it that way.

[Valuist]

Sufferin Downs--

I can't believe what I read. You think NY and Maryland are superior breeding programs to Florida? How many Breeder's Cup races have been won by NY or Md breds? Come to think of it, other than this year's Derby and Preakness, what have NY breds ever done? Win was running almost 20 years ago. And its been almost a decade since Fourstars Allstar went to Ireland to win a Grade 1.

[PaceAdvantage]

http://www.nybreds.com/frames/FS_millionaires.html


"Of approximately 460 North American-bred and raced millionaires foaled between 1980 and 2000, New York-breds comprise 16 -- or about 3.5% -- of them, which is in-line with New York-bred foal crops comprising less than 4.1% of national foal crops during those years."

[Suff]

Originally posted by Valuist
Sufferin Downs--

I can't believe what I read. You think NY and Maryland are superior breeding programs to Florida? How many Breeder's Cup races have been won by NY or Md breds? Come to think of it, other than this year's Derby and Preakness, what have NY breds ever done? Win was running almost 20 years ago. And its been almost a decade since Fourstars Allstar went to Ireland to win a Grade 1.

additionally... I'm not using "big wins" as my marking point.

I'm using the reality of Money. NY is paying Big Bonus money to owners that Breed and race in NY. It has many StateBred Opportunities that owners and trainers take advantage off.

Funnycide good example. Matched in Kentucy. Owners took the pregnant mare back to NY to drop the Foal. I see this alot now. Owners want the benefits and Money associatted with being a NY bred.

And here's a 2 day old story about another Kentucky Stallion that is being relocated to NY after years in kentucky.

http://www.bloodhorse.com/viewstory.asp?id=17967

Thats the angle that I am using to Place Ny 2nd.

Kentucky has a Foal Tax that the Breeeders are trying to eliminate so they can stop the tide of good stallions that are either leaving Kentucky or never standing there.

in 2003 NYRA sponsored $40 Million in Bonus's and Purses for NY Breds only. it pays and has paid for a while now...to breed and run Horses in NY.

I follow it pretty close....and it appears to me... That right now..
Everything is swinging NY's way in Breeding and racing right now.

[Suff]

Originally posted by Valuist
Sufferin Downs--

Come to think of it, other than this year's Derby and Preakness, what have NY breds ever done?

Funnycide and:

Since agriculture is the leading domestic product in New York State, it shouldn't be a surprise that New York has fertile farmland conducive to raising strong boned, competitive racehorses. Horses such as open stakes winners - CARSON HOLLOW, winner of the Prioress Stake (Gr.1) and Floral Park (Gr.3); PRIVATE EMBLEM, winner of the Arkansas Derby (Gr. 2), Southwest Stakes and Black Gold Handicap; Roman Dancer, winner of the Bay Shore Stake (Gr.2) and San Pedro Stake; WHITMORE'S CONN, winner of the Bowling Green (Gr. 2), FINALITY, winner of the Jamaica Handicap; MANHATTAN EXPRESS, winner of the Gateway to Glory Stake; CHEAP TALK, winner of the Kennedy Road Stake in Canada; DAT YOU MIZ BLUE, winner of the Garland of Roses; RHUM, winner of the Roseana Stake; IMPEACHTHEPRO, winner of the Longfellow Stake; SHOPPING FOR LOVE, winner of the Maryland Million Stake; and multiple Grade I winner CRITICAL EYE, winner of Ladies Handicap (Gr.3) before retiring to the breeding shed with earnings surpassing $1 Million

[PaceAdvantage]

Buy The Sport just won the Grade 1 Gazelle.....another NY bred...

[Valuist]

Sufferin-

That list has some decent horses on it. I will even give you that the NY program is on the rise. I don't have any specific stats to quote but I do know that a very strong majority of Breeders Cup races have been won by KY and FL breds, with some European bred horses sprinkled in. As for the programs where mares are sent to KY to breed and then drop the foal back in their original state, I know for a fact NY isn't the only state doing this. It is being done in Illinois (and probably several other states as well).

Pace-

I think the money won stat is irrelevant nowadays. Next year the Delta Downs jackpot purse may be worth a million bucks. As for the NY breds money won, how much of that was accomplished in the state bred races?

PS-I'm not anti-New York racing. I think they put out the best combination of good quality and bettable races. I think that the good NY breds are good for the game (i.e. Funny Cide, Win, the Fourstars horses) because they all seem to get a public following.

[VetScratch]

The only thing holding back the NY breeding program is deer season. Every year, the newspapers in Dutchess County run stories about hundreds of horses, cows, goats, and even a few deer hanging on vehicles headed south on the Taconic Parkway.
:)

[VetScratch]

For the real reason NY breds have been improving, see http://www2.als.edu/glc/wagering/whyisfunnycide.pdf.

We can thank Pat Brown for this year's Cinderella story.

[cj]

Breeder's Cup winners by state:

1. Kentucky-A whole bunch
2. Florida-Many
3. Maryland-3 :)
3.(tie) Pennsylvania-3


Others....California, 2(both Tiznow), Illinois, 1....New York, 0.

[Valuist]

OK, I'll give you Maryland is ahead of Illinois (hey at least we have one win). How about Pennsylvania:eek: I wonder who the Pa-bred winners were. I'm guessing that two of the Md winners were Concern and Da Hoss and I know Buck's Boy is the Illinois bred.

[VetScratch]

For any of 40K foals born each year, the probability of running in Breeders Cup events is so small that paying the nomination fee is a bad bet.

However, for starry-eyed buyers at yearling sales, Breeders Cup eligibility does matter. Thus, the states where yearling sales are the most lucrative tend to be the states where foals are nominated to the BC.

In order to attract more nominations, the BC needs to increase the number of BC-added-money events that are run throughout the year. If all the BC-Day Grade I races were simply $1-million dollar events, many more "minor" BC-added-money events could be scheduled. In the end, this would dramatically increase the number of BC nominations and build the pyramid from the bottom up.

[cj]

Kentucky-80 winners
Florida-18 winners

Here are the winners from not from the Big 2 states:

Maryland:
Cigar, Concern, Safely Kept

Pennsylvania:
Alphabet Soup, Go for Wand, Tikkanen

New Jersey:
Open Mind

Illinois:
Buck's Boy

Oklahoma:
Lady's Secret

California:
Tiznow

The rest are all from foreign countries

Canada-3
Argentina-3 (2 for Bayakoa)
France-4
Great Britain-7
Ireland-11

[alysheba88]

Anyone who lives in the tri state area- tomorrow NJ is having a day dedicated soley to NJ breds at Monmouth. Every race. Also a bunch of vendors will be there. Should be fun. I go to the one in NY too every year (thats Oct 18 this year)

[depalma13]

Someone gave an example of Funny Cide being dropped in NY to get the breeder's bonuses, he was sold at the Saratoga sale and his new owners immediately shipped him to their Florida facility. The bonus where worthless the moment he was shipped out of the state. Had the owners that bought him and chopped him, decided to keep the horse instead of contacting their friend Barclay Tagg and selling him the horse, Funny Cide would not have returned to New York and would have raced in Florida for no breeder's awards.

I think far too much goes into where the horses were bred, instead of where the horses are raised. The limestone base in the ground beneath the Florida fields produces champions, and the great weather all year round allows for some of the best training facilities in the world. That is why most of the top trainers have some sort of facility in Florida to send their stock when they are maturing or not at the racetrack. I believe it is the horse's growth and training that make it a champion, the breeding is a crapshoot.

[VetScratch]

I was under the impression that FC was purchased at the SAR sale with the intention of pinhooking him. The OTC in Ocala is a favorite location to begin training 2YOs before they return to Illinois or New York where they are eligible for state-bred races. It makes no sense for NY-breds or IL-breds to start their racing careers in Florida or Kentucky when they can earn extra money by breaking their maidens and running out their conditions back in the state where they were foaled.

To my knowledge, the Arkansas breeding program is the only one that pays added-money bonuses when state-breds win in other states. This makes sense because the short meet at OP does not provide enough opportunities to sustain a healthy Arkansas breeding program.