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View Full Version : Nick Kling: Reverse claims in New York


andymays
10-19-2010, 02:17 PM
http://www.troyrecord.com/articles/2010/10/19/sports/horseracing/doc4cbd1f01c5fb9221388545.txt

Excerpt:

Jim's query about horses claimed away by other trainers is easy to research. Daily Racing Form's Formulator Web program has a function which allows users to isolate every horse a trainer has claimed in the last five years, and every one which has been claimed away from him or her.

In theory, a horseman whose recent claims are doing much better than Thoroughbreds claimed away is having success. There are those of us who believe training, like every other human endeavor, is made up of people with varying degrees of skill. Cynics would offer a different explanation.

FenceBored
10-19-2010, 03:37 PM
http://www.troyrecord.com/articles/2010/10/19/sports/horseracing/doc4cbd1f01c5fb9221388545.txt

Excerpt:

Jim's query about horses claimed away by other trainers is easy to research. Daily Racing Form's Formulator Web program has a function which allows users to isolate every horse a trainer has claimed in the last five years, and every one which has been claimed away from him or her.

In theory, a horseman whose recent claims are doing much better than Thoroughbreds claimed away is having success. There are those of us who believe training, like every other human endeavor, is made up of people with varying degrees of skill. Cynics would offer a different explanation.

And to a certain extent, both groups are right.

Dahoss9698
10-19-2010, 03:48 PM
If you want to see an interesting stat, take a look at the winning % and ROI on horses first off the claim from Linda Rice, especially in the last two years. I couldn't believe it.

ukbro00
10-19-2010, 09:44 PM
can you share?

Dahoss9698
10-19-2010, 09:54 PM
First off the claim from Linda Rice the last 2 years.

Win- 29%
ITM- 54%
ROI- $3.03

thaskalos
10-19-2010, 09:56 PM
First off the claim from Linda Rice the last 2 years.

Win- 29%
ITM- 54%
ROI- $3.03How many starters?

Dahoss9698
10-19-2010, 10:18 PM
How many starters?

28

If you go back five years 63 starters, 24% wins and a ROI of $2.33.

Not a lot of starters, but she doesn't get claimed from much. I just thought it was interesting because she is one of the sharper trainers on the NY circuit.

thaskalos
10-19-2010, 10:23 PM
28

If you go back five years 63 starters, 24% wins and a ROI of $2.33.

Not a lot of starters, but she doesn't get claimed from much. I just thought it was interesting because she is one of the sharper trainers on the NY circuit.I agree...interesting stat.

Tom
10-19-2010, 10:41 PM
My first thought is that if you claim from a trainer who actually "trains" the form will carry over until the new guy ruins it. If you claim from other types of trainers, you only get the horse, not the "key," so it will not perform.

Dahoss9698
10-19-2010, 11:00 PM
My first thought is that if you claim from a trainer who actually "trains" the form will carry over until the new guy ruins it. If you claim from other types of trainers, you only get the horse, not the "key," so it will not perform.

That actually makes a lot of sense.

For example, last 5 years claiming from Bill Mott

76 starters
21% wins
$2.13 ROI

Nick Zito

77 starters
19% wins
$3.22 ROI


On the other end of the spectrum is Wayne Catalano. Last 5 years claiming from Wayne Catalano

330 starters
10% wins
$0.99 ROI

thaskalos
10-19-2010, 11:14 PM
On the other end of the spectrum is Wayne Catalano. Last 5 years claiming from Wayne Catalano

330 starters
10% wins
$0.99 ROIConsidering that Catalano claims to be "just a hay, oats and water man"...this is a curious stat to say the least.

Dahoss9698
10-19-2010, 11:33 PM
Considering that Catalano claims to be "just a hay, oats and water man"...this is a curious stat to say the least.

First off the claim from Juan Carlos Guerrero

39 starters
3% winners
$0.16 ROI



:lol:

pandy
10-19-2010, 11:53 PM
I think it's a good point, it's smarter to claim off a proven top trainer like Zito, Mott, Rice, than the trainers who raise suspicions. I don't think it's just because you are claiming a horse that has been well trained or cared for, but also because these trainers have quality stock. I would think Pletcher would fall into that category, like Zito, he often drops well bred good looking horses into maiden claimers and they are claimed, and sometimes the new owners get a bargain, an expensive horse that didn't live up to expectations but can still be a useful claimer.

thaskalos
10-20-2010, 12:04 AM
First off the claim from Juan Carlos Guerrero

39 starters
3% winners
$0.16 ROI



:lol:Let me get this straight...

With first time claims, Guerrero wins 50%+ of the time...but when others claim from HIM, THEY win at a 3% clip?

How long will things like these be allowed to go on?

Dahoss9698
10-20-2010, 12:07 AM
First off claim from Pletcher

154 starters
18% winners
$2.37 ROI

Dahoss9698
10-20-2010, 12:15 AM
Let me get this straight...

With first time claims, Guerrero wins 50%+ of the time...but when others claim from HIM, THEY win at a 3% clip?

How long will things like these be allowed to go on?

Amazing isn't it? I almost didn't believe it when I saw it. I can count on one hand the number of races I've bet from Philly or Penn National in the last 5 years and I'll never do it again after seeing that.

thaskalos
10-20-2010, 12:24 AM
Amazing isn't it? I almost didn't believe it when I saw it. I can count on one hand the number of races I've bet from Philly or Penn National in the last 5 years and I'll never do it again after seeing that.I remember when I first encountered a Guerrero claim a few months ago while handicapping a race at Philly, late one night. (I even mentioned it on this board).

I spotted a horse which I thought could win at a price...and then I saw that one of the "outsiders" was a first time Guerrero claim. He sported a 54% win rate with first time claims out of 37 starts.

I closed my racing form and went to bed...

Dahoss9698
10-20-2010, 12:35 AM
Mike Mitchell when he claims a horse

226 starters
28% winners
$2.20 ROI

When horse gets claimed from him

211 starters
14% winners
$1.28 ROI



Jeff Mullins when he claims a horse

181 starters
28% winners
$2.28 ROI


When horse gets claimed from him

237 starters
13% winners
$1.05 ROI

thaskalos
10-20-2010, 12:42 AM
I hate to put you to work...but can you check trainers Larry Rivelli and Nick Canani?

Dahoss9698
10-20-2010, 01:06 AM
Pretty interesting numbers on Rivelli

Larry Rivelli when he claims a horse

136 starters
19% winners
$1.17 ROI

When horse gets claimed from Larry Rivelli

179 starters
24% winners
$2.55 ROI


Nick Canani when he claims a horse

115 starters
34% winners
$1.88 ROI

When horse gets claimed from Canani

104 starters
15% winners
$1.56 ROI

Robert Fischer
10-20-2010, 01:23 AM
if you see an owner or even barn for a guy who doesn't juice, with poor 1st of claim it's often a case of them "protecting" their claim by moving up the class ladder.

good numbers on Rivelli.


Dale Romans seems like a guy you could claim from, but purely a guess.

thaskalos
10-20-2010, 01:34 AM
Thanks for the research Dahoss...very interesting stats.

I shudder at the thought of what Juan Carlos Guerrero's first-off-the-claim stats would be, if he claimed exclusively from Linda Rice and Larry Rivelli...:)

castaway01
10-20-2010, 10:52 AM
I remember when I first encountered a Guerrero claim a few months ago while handicapping a race at Philly, late one night. (I even mentioned it on this board).

I spotted a horse which I thought could win at a price...and then I saw that one of the "outsiders" was a first time Guerrero claim. He sported a 54% win rate with first time claims out of 37 starts.

I closed my racing form and went to bed...

While it might be morally offensive to you to do so, why wouldn't you just bet on the Guerrero claims and AGAINST the ones claimed from him? Seems like easy money.

Linny
10-20-2010, 12:26 PM
I think it's a good point, it's smarter to claim off a proven top trainer like Zito, Mott, Rice, than the trainers who raise suspicions. I don't think it's just because you are claiming a horse that has been well trained or cared for, but also because these trainers have quality stock. I would think Pletcher would fall into that category, like Zito, he often drops well bred good looking horses into maiden claimers and they are claimed, and sometimes the new owners get a bargain, an expensive horse that didn't live up to expectations but can still be a useful claimer.

Agreed. Taking dropdowns from stakes type barns usually assures that the horse has had good care and often has some back class. The claiming ranks usally provide the easiest way to sell off horses that clearly are not going to be of stakes quality.

thaskalos
10-20-2010, 03:13 PM
While it might be morally offensive to you to do so, why wouldn't you just bet on the Guerrero claims and AGAINST the ones claimed from him? Seems like easy money.If I were in this game purely for the money, I would have abandoned it long ago...from a dollar per hour standpoint, the game is not very appealing at all.

The handicapping aspect of it, and the competition that it creates among the players is what initially hooked me...and it hasn't let me go yet, 30 years later. I enjoy handicapping races as much as I do betting them.

But when I see trainers like Mr. Guerrero...making a mockery of this game, and rendering the handicapping process obsolete...I feel like an idiot, and not like the player it took me 30 years to become.

And I curse those responsible for allowing these atrocities to go on as long as they have...

fmolf
10-20-2010, 04:25 PM
If I were in this game purely for the money, I would have abandoned it long ago...from a dollar per hour standpoint, the game is not very appealing at all.

The handicapping aspect of it, and the competition that it creates among the players is what initially hooked me...and it hasn't let me go yet, 30 years later. I enjoy handicapping races as much as I do betting them.

But when I see trainers like Mr. Guerrero...making a mockery of this game, and rendering the handicapping process obsolete...I feel like an idiot, and not like the player it took me 30 years to become.

And I curse those responsible for allowing these atrocities to go on as long as they have...
guerrero is the extreme....It's quite possible that astute trainers are dropping these horses into races where they have a better shot at winning and losing them via claim ....in a top notch trainers case maybe the horse is damaged....does the newtrainer drop the horse and win...too many variables for me to make blanket observations...each claim is a different transaction and should be handicapped as such....in my opinion

garyoz
10-20-2010, 04:30 PM
Let me get this straight...

With first time claims, Guerrero wins 50%+ of the time...but when others claim from HIM, THEY win at a 3% clip?

How long will things like these be allowed to go on?

Until we stop betting.

Robert Fischer
10-20-2010, 05:39 PM
maybe the addicts or the whales can see betting on these d-bags, but when players who demand value see them favored in a race, they don't wager.