Losing Streaks

[jamey1977]

I hate this damn game. I suppose to have a hit rate. 25 percent winners at 11 dollars. But this takes forever. I lost all 9 of my plays this week. Doesn't it feel that the horses lose, just for you ?. They will find ways to lose just for us. I can't stand waiting 5 weeks for that great period where my hit rate can kick in. I bet Win Only. Does anybody bet to Win and how do you handle losing streaks.? What is the most you lost in a losing streak but came back and still maintained your hit rate. Are we in just a random occurence or are we doing something that matters.? Just because a hit-rate is there for 3 months, will it be there for 3 years? This damn game is so frustrating

[thaskalos]

IMO, there is no such thing as an established "hit rate". Our entire betting career is one long gambling session, with our hit rate always in a state of flux...and yet to be determined.

[xfile]

If a player is making a profit who cares about the hit rate. I've always said this game is a mental game and most players lose because of the mental pressures of losing streaks. This is gambling. There's going to be winning streaks and losing streaks. Just get strong and be confident in your plan if you know it works. Don't obsess over it. Pick up a distraction to get you through the insane moments. Some other kind of hobby for a break now and then. Music, other sports, etc.

[thaskalos]

The losing streaks are the nature of the game, and all the players are subjected to them. We should stop feeling sorry for ourselves and just stick to our game plans.

Difficulties make us stronger. Calm seas do not produce competent sailors.

[Valuist]

IMO, there is no such thing as an established "hit rate". Our entire betting career is one long gambling session, with our hit rate always in a state of flux...and yet to be determined.

This is 100% correct. You read about so-called hit rates and the fact of the matter is they DO change.

[SchagFactorToWin]

In a group of 100 races with a 25% win rate, the chances of getting a 9 race losing streak is 88%.

Handicapping may be art or science, but wagering is all math.

[BlueShoe]

Nine losers in a row from a method that gets 25% winners is nothing. A streak of 20, 30, or even 40 straight losers would not be unheard of. A 50% winning method is going to have 9 losers in a row at some point. A good way to get a grasp on how bad or how good streaks can get is to study casino dice or roulette records, and observe the different trends and patterns. Six hours at the tables can equal six months at the track as far as number of plays is concerned.

[therussmeister]

A good way to get a grasp on how bad or how good streaks can get is to study casino dice or roulette records, and observe the different trends and patterns.
I made a spread sheet using the random function. I can choose any winning percentage I want and observe streaks. I also use this to woork out various money management strategies.

[parlay]

I made a spread sheet using the random function. I can choose any winning percentage I want and observe streaks. I also use this to woork out various money management strategies.


Thanks in advance

[DJofSD]

I know the basis for a lot of the responses are correct and true, and, likely based upon Monte Carlo trials. Is there a web site that can be used to demonstrate why 9 losses in a row is not that unusual?

[CincyHorseplayer]

How ridiculous is your losing streak??

If your horses are getting banged up in stages of the race or catching a bias against or hit the gate you know you're not doing anything wrong.

Other than that take the good with the bad.You go on a losing streak for a week at about 10% of your bankroll you can make it up in one race.And don't forget to repeat to yourself the goal of this game on occasion "Win"!!It works.

[Trotman]

Hit Rate, Strike Rate, Bias, Variant, Early, Late, all of this IMO is keeping you from "WINNING". Why is it many believe that what has happened in the past has any thing to do what with what will happen today. IMO each race is it's own independent event and if handicapped as such will in the long run show a profit.

[fmolf]

hit rate 25%@$11 one week...next week,15%@$7.20..3rd week,35%@$12.40.....it is ever changing and you cannot get crazy over it.compute it for the full year so it averages out,then compare from yr to yr....i also like to stop playing my favorite track where i am on the losing streak.I begin to play a totally different circuit where i haveno preconceived notionsabout jockeys or trainers being bums because they burned me before.My handicapping at the new circuit becomes horse ability based,relying strongly on the fundamentals...speed/pace/form/class!...Works for me.

[PaceAdvantage]

This is where the mental aspect of the game can easily kill someone who isn't sporting the proper-sized bankroll, is playing with scared money, or has little faith in his methodology.

Nobody said it was easy.

[JustRalph]

42 losers in a row once..........

I got over it. you will too.

I would caution you of one thing. I have had this moment a couple of times in the last ten years (only been playing ten years) sometimes you have to realize that you may need to adapt. Doing the same thing over and over again expecting a different result is the old definition of insanity.

The game changes........ don't be afraid to reevaluate how you play. You have to change too

[CincyHorseplayer]

42 losers in a row once..........

I got over it. you will too.

I would caution you of one thing. I have had this moment a couple of times in the last ten years (only been playing ten years) sometimes you have to realize that you may need to adapt. Doing the same thing over and over again expecting a different result is the old definition of insanity.

The game changes........ don't be afraid to reevaluate how you play. You have to change too

I had a 25'er to end 2004.Very humbling experience.

[raybo]

With an overall hit rate in supers at 8% for 6 years, you can imagine the streaks I have seen. If it gets to you too much just take a break. Than after making sure you haven't changed your process, continue.

[mistergee]

With an overall hit rate in supers at 8% for 6 years, you can imagine the streaks I have seen. If it gets to you too much just take a break. Than after making sure you haven't changed your process, continue.
at least with supers you can hit just 1 that will carry you for awhile. I am assuming that at 8% keeping track for 6 years you are strictly playing for bomb payoffs?

[raybo]

at least with supers you can hit just 1 that will carry you for awhile. I am assuming that at 8% keeping track for 6 years you are strictly playing for bomb payoffs?

Not really, I look at the lowest odds combination on my ticket and if it won't pay approximately $300@$1, I don't bet.

[Pell Mell]

Winning, not losing, streaks are the exception to the rule. ;)

[mountainman]

IMO, there is no such thing as an established "hit rate". Our entire betting career is one long gambling session, with our hit rate always in a state of flux...and yet to be determined.

Post of the century.

[CincyHorseplayer]

Post of the century.

There has to be a measuring stick at some point though Mountain.Wether it is a meet,a month,some period of time to establish proficiency or else it all lapses into obscurity and grey area.

[riskman]

If you are a 25% handicapper your bankroll must be able to withstand approximately 17 consecutive losses. If you are averaging an 11.00 mutual, you are doing pretty damn good. At an average mutual of 9.60 you are guaranteed a 20% OR GREATER RATE OF PROFIT.
You will never have as many winning days as losing ones betting on one horse per race. Maybe you should consider giving up some profit and betting two horses per race. With a 50% win rate at 9.60 mutual you have a profit 20%. This should help your confidence since you will cash more frequently but in reality it is still difficult to hit a 20% ROI. You are not being realistic IMO.

[mountainman]

There has to be a measuring stick at some point though Mountain.Wether it is a meet,a month,some period of time to establish proficiency or else it all lapses into obscurity and grey area.
You make a good point cincy. But I can speak only from my own experience, and my returns fluctuate considerably from week to week; month to month-even year to year. It's probably not pc to admit this on a forum where so many geeks (that word isn't an insult anymore, right?) espouse the security of programmed handicapping, but my looser approach, more intuitive in nature, subjects my bottom line to roller coaster ups and downs.

[Dave Schwartz]

It's probably not pc to admit this on a forum where so many geeks (that word isn't an insult anymore, right?) espouse the security of programmed handicapping, but my looser approach, more intuitive in nature, subjects my bottom line to roller coaster ups and downs.

Mountainman,

Another reason that "programmed" handicapping is more stable (win or lose) is that there is a likelihood of much higher play volume. You could well be comparing a 50-races per week player to a 50-races per day player.


Dave

[BlueShoe]

With a 50% win rate at 9.60 mutual you have a profit 20%.
You would have a flat bet profit of 140%, not 20%. No handicapper alive could achieve anywhere close to this result over a period of time. Any capper that gets 50% winners is going to be one that specializes in mostly very solid chalk. 50% winners at an average $4.40 or $4.60 mutual might be achievable if you are very, very good at selecting this type of play.

[therussmeister]

Thanks in advance
Are you still interested in the spreadsheet?

I have massive gaps in my computer knowledge and am not sure how to attach it.

[WinterTriangle]

A lot of good points made here.

Not really, I look at the lowest odds combination on my ticket and if it won't pay approximately______, I don't bet.

Discipline, in other words.


I rate these highest:

Discipline. Proper capitalization (bankroll). Money management (limit losses, maximize gains).

Plenty of people winning wagers appear to be losing in the long run??

My brothers who are mathematician types sat me down 25 years ago for some lessons, with charts. (I hit them up for some new lesson plans for horse racing, but it wasn't really any different than other investments.)

There will always be randomness (things beyond your control), luck, losing streaks, judgement errors.

You can have the best database in the world, but you still have to consistently stick with a carefully constructed "investment plan", or you will not weather the storms and losing streaks, because you didn't maximize during those winning streaks.

Turns out that money management is simple math.... even for me who is not adept in more complex math.

[rubicon55]

42 losers in a row once..........

I got over it. you will too.

I would caution you of one thing. I have had this moment a couple of times in the last ten years (only been playing ten years) sometimes you have to realize that you may need to adapt. Doing the same thing over and over again expecting a different result is the old definition of insanity.

The game changes........ don't be afraid to reevaluate how you play. You have to change too

Never more truer words spoken.

[CincyHorseplayer]

You make a good point cincy. But I can speak only from my own experience, and my returns fluctuate considerably from week to week; month to month-even year to year. It's probably not pc to admit this on a forum where so many geeks (that word isn't an insult anymore, right?) espouse the security of programmed handicapping, but my looser approach, more intuitive in nature, subjects my bottom line to roller coaster ups and downs.

I hear ya man,everybody's does or they are the Dalai Lama or a liar or awesome!!.I evaluate myself if I'm playing part time based on 5 bet day or a basic racing week.And I have been playing part time til lately.My first 5 days since summer I had a 69% ROI.The last 5 days a 7% loss.So I'm holding steady and to me that is of utmost importance.In flux right now.

But if I'm playing "for real!!" I give myself a month.You have a lump sum and 30 days,you should be able to relax and make something happen.It usually works.I think a meet is a very strong measure.Some meets are stronger than others and I have been experimenting for the last 2 years on where I succeed best.I have noticed I am good at win bets at big tracks and good with the exactas at smaller tracks.

[lansdale]

IMO, there is no such thing as an established "hit rate". Our entire betting career is one long gambling session, with our hit rate always in a state of flux...and yet to be determined.

Hi thaskalos,

There is an established hit rate, which like your ROI and variance, are a measures of your play which continues to increase in accuracy the longer you play, as the Law of Large Numbers states. Although there is flux, or volatility, as you say, there is a measureable, which is the most important stat.

Cheers,

lansdale

[lansdale]

Hi thaskalos,

There is an established hit rate, which like your ROI and variance, are a measures of your play which continues to increase in accuracy the longer you play, as the Law of Large Numbers states. Although there is flux, or volatility, as you say, there is a measureable, which is the most important stat.

Cheers,

lansdale

Last line should read, 'there is a measureable mean'.

[thaskalos]

Hi thaskalos,

There is an established hit rate, which like your ROI and variance, are a measures of your play which continues to increase in accuracy the longer you play, as the Law of Large Numbers states. Although there is flux, or volatility, as you say, there is a measureable, which is the most important stat.

Cheers,

lansdaleI politely disagree...and I have a long betting career to base my disagreement on.

Our hit rate is in a constant state of flux NOT only because of the "chaos" factor that we all have to deal with (as implied by your reference to length of play and the Law of Large Numbers)...but also because of the constant changes inherent in the game itself.

The recent changes within the game (synthetic surfaces, "super trainers", "whale" computer betting, smaller fields, etc...) coupled with the increased sophistication of the general betting public, render our prior results, and hit rates, questionable and subject to change.

The dynamic nature of this game makes it imperative that the winning player always be alert and willing to adapt...and not to rest in the comforts of pre-conceived "hit-rates" and ROI.

Cheers,

thaskalos.

[raybo]

I politely disagree...and I have a long betting career to base my disagreement on.

Our hit rate is in a constant state of flux NOT only because of the "chaos" factor that we all have to deal with (as implied by your reference to length of play and the Law of Large Numbers)...but also because of the constant changes inherent in the game itself.

The recent changes within the game (synthetic surfaces, "super trainers", "whale" computer betting, smaller fields, etc...) coupled with the increased sophistication of the general betting public, render our prior results, and hit rates, questionable and subject to change.

The dynamic nature of this game makes it imperative that the winning player always be alert and willing to adapt...and not to rest in the comforts of pre-conceived "hit-rates" and ROI.

Cheers,

thaskalos.

Hate to just dive into what seems like a 2 person discussion, but, I have to agree with both of you, to some extent. If one keeps good records, one knows what his long term hit rate has been and has an excellent idea of what it will be in the future.

One doesn't have to be static to establish a hit rate, nor does his hit rate necessarily have to take a nose dive. One just has to realize and understand what "flux" factors exist and what is likely to be coming down the pike. Sure adjustments have to be made, but, most of us who have been at this game for 30+ years didn't establish our hit rate without making adjustments along the way. There are very few things that remain unchanged in life. We have been adjusting our game since day 1, however, we still have an established hit rate.

Mine has been 8% and change for 6+ years, in superfectas. The only major changes I've made were not hit rate related, but, payout related. Call that "flux" if you want but I made those changes, not to increase my hit rate but to increase my net profit, and reduce the stress and grind involved in maintaining a long term positive ROI.

[OCF]

In a group of 100 races with a 25% win rate, the chances of getting a 9 race losing streak is 88%.

This is good information, what is the formula being used?

[SchagFactorToWin]

This is good information, what is the formula being used?
I don't use the formula since I found this the calculator: http://www.sbrforum.com/betting-tools/streak-calculator.aspx

[Capper Al]

I don't use the formula since I found this the calculator: http://www.sbrforum.com/betting-tools/streak-calculator.aspx

Great link. To get under 1% chance of having a losing streak with a 30% win rate (70% losing rate) over a series of 400 bets, I needed to make my losing streak at least 27 races long. This paints a different picture.

[OCF]

I don't use the formula since I found this the calculator: http://www.sbrforum.com/betting-tools/streak-calculator.aspx

Thanks!

[windoor]

I hate this damn game. I suppose to have a hit rate. 25 percent winners at 11 dollars. But this takes forever. I lost all 9 of my plays this week. Doesn't it feel that the horses lose, just for you ?. They will find ways to lose just for us. I can't stand waiting 5 weeks for that great period where my hit rate can kick in. I bet Win Only. Does anybody bet to Win and how do you handle losing streaks.? What is the most you lost in a losing streak but came back and still maintained your hit rate. Are we in just a random occurence or are we doing something that matters.? Just because a hit-rate is there for 3 months, will it be there for 3 years? This damn game is so frustrating


A little late here, but this thread caught my eye.

As someone who has played the win bet for over 30 years, I can tell you a little something about losing streaks.

Last year at this time I was hitting at a 32% rate per wager and a win per race in the mid 40's.

I chop the year up into quarters and have not seen such numbers as that for all of this year. This last quarter has been the worst at 19% per wager and 26% per race. (I often play more than one horse per race) The other Quarters were mostly in mid to high 20 percent range.

From 11/28/10 to 12/7/10 I had 27 straight losses per race before hitting a low odd horse, then another 12 in a row before hitting a nice 6 to 1. The grand total for period was one win in 52 wagers. I think this is the worst I have ever experienced.

As of 12/7/10 to date: Here are my results using the same method of handicapping then produced the losing streak, as copied from my spreadsheet that I use to keep track of wagers.
W $40.00 $14.20 6.1 $284.00
$40.00 $0.00
$40.00 $0.00
$40.00 $0.00
$40.00 $0.00
W $40.00 $17.80 7.9 $356.00
W $40.00 $18.60 8.3 $372.00
W $40.00 $4.20 1.1 $84.00
$40.00 $0.00
W $40.00 $5.80 1.9 $116.00
$40.00 $0.00
W $40.00 $14.20 6.1 $284.00
$40.00 $0.00
W $40.00 $3.20 0.6 $64.00
W $40.00 $6.60 2.3 $132.00
W $40.00 $5.60 1.8 $112.00
W $40.00 $3.40 0.7 $68.00
$40.00 $0.00
$0.00 $0.00
$40.00 $0.00
W $40.00 $8.40 3.2 $168.00
W $40.00 $84.40 41.2 $1,688.00
W $40.00 $4.20 1.1 $84.00
$40.00 $0.00


The 41 to 1 shot was the bomb I needed to recover, but the overall win percent was very good. 13 win out of 23 races played using the same method that created the losing streak.

I often have losing streaks that reach into the teens, and at least a couple times a year, have them go into the 20’s.

The interesting thing is that of the 38 races played during the losing streak, fourteen ran second and 24 hit the board. That told me that I continued to be on live horses, I just pissed of the racing Gods a little. Probably from bragging on how well I was doing :)

So you shouldn’t be worried about 9 losses’s in a row. Keep you bank strong for the amount of your wager, (I use 200 units) and not only will you survive it, but still be there when it turns around.

Regards,

Windoor