HOY Candidates

[GatetoWire]

In my opinion there is a maximum of 8 horses left that can win the Horse of the year. Let me know what you think of this


We all know Zenyatta will be HOY if she wins....contrary to Shirreffs silly notion she will NOT be HOY if she loses.


Here are the other contenders.


Classic:
Blame
Lookin at Lucky
Quality Road

All three win HOY if they win the Classic


Others:
Haynesfield: can win HOY if he wins the Classic and Blind Luck loses the Ladies Classic

Blind Luck: Can win HOY if there is a bomber in the Classic and she crushes the ladies in the Distaff

Uncle Mo - Could win HOY if there is a Bomber in the Classic, Blind Luck loses the Distaff and he throws in an Arazi type performance in the Juvenile.

Goldikova: Would need to dominate the mile plus have a bomber in the Classic, Blind Luck lose and Uncle Mo lose or just squeak a win.

[v j stauffer]

In my opinion there is a maximum of 8 horses left that can win the Horse of the year. Let me know what you think of this


We all know Zenyatta will be HOY if she wins....contrary to Shirreffs silly notion she will NOT be HOY if she loses.


Here are the other contenders.


Classic:
Blame
Lookin at Lucky
Quality Road

All three win HOY if they win the Classic


Others:
Haynesfield: can win HOY if he wins the Classic and Blind Luck loses the Ladies Classic

Blind Luck: Can win HOY if there is a bomber in the Classic and she crushes the ladies in the Distaff

Uncle Mo - Could win HOY if there is a Bomber in the Classic, Blind Luck loses the Distaff and he throws in an Arazi type performance in the Juvenile.

Goldikova: Would need to dominate the mile plus have a bomber in the Classic, Blind Luck lose and Uncle Mo lose or just squeak a win.

Any scenarios for Proviso?

[GatetoWire]

Any scenarios for Proviso?

Vic:
I knew that she would come up!!
What do you think?
Is it the same as Goldikova?

I am assuming that Proviso would go in the Mile.

If there is a bomber in the Classic, Blind Luck loses and Proviso beats Goldikova do you think she is HOY?

[redshift1]

It's down to four:

Zanyetta
Lookin at Lucky
Blame
Quality Road

If anyone besides the above four wins the BCC then LAL wins HOY. Up to now he's had the best overall year.

[depalma113]

Blame has 2 grade one wins going in.
Zenyatta has 5 grade one wins going in.
Quality Road has 3 grade one wins going in.
Lookin at Lucky has 2 grade one wins going in.
Richard's Kid has 2 grade one wins going in.

If any of those 5 win, they will be HOY. Anyone else wins and it will be Zenyatta.

[W2G]

Realistically, I think there are far fewer scenarios. As long as Zenyatta is moving like a freight train down the middle of that long CD stretch in front of all those people and on your TV, it's hers. Now if she were shockingly passed in the stretch by [fill in the blank], that's something different. The way the race plays out (pace, trouble, traffic) may rightly or wrongly be a factor in many voter's opinions, especially if she doesn't catch [fill in the blank] at the wire.

[DeanT]

Realistically, I think there are far fewer scenarios. As long as Zenyatta is moving like a freight train down the middle of that long CD stretch in front of all those people and on your TV, it's hers. Now if she were shockingly passed in the stretch by [fill in the blank], that's something different. The way the race plays out (pace, trouble, traffic) may rightly or wrongly be a factor in many voter's opinions, especially if she doesn't catch [fill in the blank] at the wire.

I would agree with that. I make her about 3-5 to win HOY in a pretty anti-climactic vote. Regardless what is said about past years not being a part of a HOY vote, it is pure folly. The DRF dude has it completely right with his Lord of the Rings analogy. She has delivered five grade one wins this season and that will be hard for anyone to match this year, barring something wild and unforseen.

[GatetoWire]

Realistically, I think there are far fewer scenarios. As long as Zenyatta is moving like a freight train down the middle of that long CD stretch in front of all those people and on your TV, it's hers. Now if she were shockingly passed in the stretch by [fill in the blank], that's something different. The way the race plays out (pace, trouble, traffic) may rightly or wrongly be a factor in many voter's opinions, especially if she doesn't catch [fill in the blank] at the wire.

Don't read me wrong on this post because I love Zenyatta as much as anyone but she will not be and does not deserve to be horse of the year if she loses the Classic.

You cannot face cupcake competition all summer and then fail the first time you face any real contenders and still think you can win HOY.

As somebody else said on this board. It's going to be like the Yankees playing in Triple A all season then losing in the World Series.

I am sorry but that will not get you HOY.

[Dahoss9698]

Don't read me wrong on this post because I love Zenyatta as much as anyone but she will not be and does not deserve to be horse of the year if she loses the Classic.

You cannot face cupcake competition all summer and then fail the first time you face any real contenders and still think you can win HOY.

As somebody else said on this board. It's going to be like the Yankees playing in Triple A all season then losing in the World Series.

I am sorry but that will not get you HOY.

Yeah, but Jay Hovdey used a Lord of The Rings analogy. That trumps everything.

[Irish Boy]

There's an argument (not a great one, IMO) that Zenyatta should have been HOY in 2009, and there's a much better argument that she should have been in 2008. Regardless of the merits of her campaign this year, every doubt will be resolved in her favor. It's not entirely fair to her competition, but that's just how it works. Over her career, it seems that she would have deserved at least one, and many people will vote based on that.

[cj]

There's an argument (not a great one, IMO) that Zenyatta should have been HOY in 2009, and there's a much better argument that she should have been in 2008. Regardless of the merits of her campaign this year, every doubt will be resolved in her favor. It's not entirely fair to her competition, but that's just how it works. Over her career, it seems that she would have deserved at least one, and many people will vote based on that.

People keep saying this, but where is the precedent? What former Horse of the Year won it based at least partially on prior years?

[Irish Boy]

Curlin 2008, for starters.

[FenceBored]

People keep saying this, but where is the precedent? What former Horse of the Year won it based at least partially on prior years?

The one I've had thrown at me is the 1954 HOY won by Native Dancer.

[cj]

Curlin 2008, for starters.

That is debatable. He certainly won a lot of prestigious races that year, and the fact the Classic was on rubber for the first time lessened its importance with voters in my opinion.

[FenceBored]

That is debatable. He certainly won a lot of prestigious races that year, and the fact the Classic was on rubber for the first time lessened its importance with voters in my opinion.

Yep, saying the horse who won the DWC, the Foster, the Woodward, the JCGC and ran 2nd in G1 Man o' War in his only turf start (between two former BC Turf winners) hasn't done enough to be a legitimate HOY is a little strange.

[cj]

The one I've had thrown at me is the 1954 HOY won by Native Dancer.

I won't pretend to know much about what happened in 1954.

[Irish Boy]

That is debatable. He certainly won a lot of prestigious races that year, and the fact the Classic was on rubber for the first time lessened its importance with voters in my opinion.
I think the strongest argument for Curlin, if it is to be made, is that his race in Dubai was better than anything any other horse in America did on dirt. That could be true, but after the Dubai trip, Curlin won some very weak editions of prestigious races and lost his races on other surfaces. I think Curlin also got a boost for trying the other surfaces and for actually returning for his 4yo campaign.

Part of what complicates matters is that for most of the past decade, a win in the BC Classic has equaled HOY. That will still probably be true this year for the big four candidates.

[Steve R]

There's an argument (not a great one, IMO) that Zenyatta should have been HOY in 2009, and there's a much better argument that she should have been in 2008. Regardless of the merits of her campaign this year, every doubt will be resolved in her favor. It's not entirely fair to her competition, but that's just how it works. Over her career, it seems that she would have deserved at least one, and many people will vote based on that.
If that's how votes are decided we might as well just scrap the Eclipse awards completely because they would no longer serve any purpose. You could call them the equine equivalent of the People's Choice Awards - IOW, useless.

[cj]

...Curlin won some very weak editions of prestigious races and lost his races on other surfaces...

Again, debatable. In all his dirt races after Dubai, the pace was a big factor. Two were slow and he overcame them, and the other (Saratoga) was very fast. I had him running 9 points faster to the pace call than at any other time in his career.

[Charlie D]

...Curlin won some very weak editions of prestigious races and lost his races on other surfaces...



Interesting that someone can spot the weakness of Curlin races in 2008, but not the weakness of Zen's in 2008, 2009 and 2010

[Steve R]

The one I've had thrown at me is the 1954 HOY won by Native Dancer.
I think the 3yo, High Gun, was the only legitimate competition to Native Dancer that year despite the latter racing just three times. The problem was that High Gun lost too many races early in the year and then, after the Belmont, lost decisively twice to a nice but not special colt named Errard King. He did win the JCGC beating horses like Fisherman and Bicarb but in a very slow time. Native Dancer, OTOH, went 3 for 3, winning the Metropolitan Handicap under 130 pounds in two ticks off the Belmont TR while giving 13 pounds to the place horse and a Saratoga handicap by 9 lengths toting 137 pounds. There may have been some sentiment in the vote, although realistically Native Dancer most likely was the best horse that year.

[FenceBored]

I think the 3yo, High Gun, was the only legitimate competition to Native Dancer that year despite the latter racing just three times. The problem was that High Gun lost too many races early in the year and then, after the Belmont, lost decisively twice to a nice but not special colt named Errard King. He did win the JCGC beating horses like Fisherman and Bicarb but in a very slow time. Native Dancer, OTOH, went 3 for 3, winning the Metropolitan Handicap under 130 pounds in two ticks off the Belmont TR while giving 13 pounds to the place horse and a Saratoga handicap by 9 lengths toting 137 pounds. There may have been some sentiment in the vote, although realistically Native Dancer most likely was the best horse that year.

I'll just quote a couple of passages from Charles Hatton's Profiles of Best Horses in the 1955 ARM to give his take on the arguments of that day, and their perennial nature. First from the profile of Native Dancer:
A champion -- hailed rather than merely acknowledged -- each of his three seasons in competition. Native Dancer was voted Horse of the Year in 1954. The balloting for this distinction lacked the spontaneous unanimity accorded Busher and some others of the past, however, for "The Dancer" ran only three times as a four-year-old, and a number of the critics felt the three-year-old- High Gun more deserving of the honors on the basis of his attainments during the year. But nobody with the vaguest knowledge of form questioned he was the classiest performer in training, and many regard the marvelous gray as a Horse of the Ages, one whose challenging record of 21 victories in 22 starts will be quoted for posterity by generations of turf commentators.
Then from the profile of High Gun:
No other of the season's campaigners accomplished quite so much, and indeed there was a disposition in some quarters to feel he had earned Horse of the Year honors, even among those who fully appreciated Native Dancer's superlative class, and would not have backed High Gun to beat him at any odds. There was much to be said for the rectitude of their position, on the basis that the award is annual, and by the same token candidates should be judged strictly upon their form during that particular season, not career-wise. For the Dancer, it was a retroactive honor.
Now, Hatton may have been in the High Gun camp for all I know, but he certainly paints a fine portrait of a great horse whose accomplishments for the year were more limited by the standards of the day versus an animal who developed mid-year into a solid though never spectacular top level performer. Based on what little I've gleaned I'd have been in the High Gun camp (with his wins in the Dwyer, Peter Pan, Belmont, Sysonby, Manhattan {then on dirt}, and JCGC), but Native Dancer's performance in the Met Mile certainly makes it a closer thing.

[gm10]

Yep, saying the horse who won the DWC, the Foster, the Woodward, the JCGC and ran 2nd in G1 Man o' War in his only turf start (between two former BC Turf winners) hasn't done enough to be a legitimate HOY is a little strange.

Isn't HOY based on performances on American soil?

[cj]

Isn't HOY based on performances on American soil?

There is no rule that says an American based winning overseas can't be considered.

[GatetoWire]

Interesting that someone can spot the weakness of Curlin races in 2008, but not the weakness of Zen's in 2008, 2009 and 2010

I think it's amazing that people cannot be objective when looking at Z's 2010 campaign.

There is certainly nothing wrong with her wins in California and the number of Grade 1's she captured but in my opinion HOY goes to the horse at the end of the season who has proven to be the best.

Right now I am dealing with pure speculation on whether Z is the best horse in training because her competition has been so mediocre this year and she has stayed in California exclusively.

Right now I think the world of Blind Luck because of all she has accomplished this year and all the traveling she has done. She has had the kind of campaign that is HOY worthy.

Z has to win the BC to win HOY because of the weak group she has faced and the fact that she has won mostly on Poly in California.


The BC is the most important 2 days of the year because it's the only time we get all coasts to converge and we can really see who is the best horse in training.

2 seconds after the Classic we will know exactly who the best horse is.
Until then I can only think Z is the best in training and worthy of HOY.

That is the great thing about the BC. You get to prove it....not just be given it.

[PaceAdvantage]

That is the great thing about the BC. You get to prove it....not just be given it.The BC is not always the be all, end all. Especially when it is held over synthetics, as was proven last year.

[letswastemoney]

I don't think Blind Luck should be a contender for HOTY because she isn't facing the best competition.

It should be who beats the best competition on a consistent basis. Quality Road and Blame most closely resemble that.

[Fager Fan]

Don't read me wrong on this post because I love Zenyatta as much as anyone but she will not be and does not deserve to be horse of the year if she loses the Classic.

You cannot face cupcake competition all summer and then fail the first time you face any real contenders and still think you can win HOY.

As somebody else said on this board. It's going to be like the Yankees playing in Triple A all season then losing in the World Series.

I am sorry but that will not get you HOY.

It will though. Just look at the NTRA poll if you need some tangible proof of how the wind's blowing. Zenyatta isn't just number 1 in the poll, she took EVERY number 1 vote which is almost unheard of (and might really be a first at this point in the year).

Even Baffert acts like a giddy teenage girl when he talks about Zenyatta. When another man's horse gets these hardened trainers giddy, you should ask yourself what it is you're not understanding.

[Charlie D]

I would agree with that. I make her about 3-5 to win HOY in a pretty anti-climactic vote. Regardless what is said about past years not being a part of a HOY vote, it is pure folly. The DRF dude has it completely right with his Lord of the Rings analogy. She has delivered five grade one wins this season and that will be hard for anyone to match this year, barring something wild and unforseen.


Yes, but all were restricted to her sex and that may be a negative rather than a positive to some voters as it is to some handicappers on PA. A similar story with Lookin at Lucky who has ran in 3yo races i believe.

[Pine Tree Lane]

Yep, saying the horse who won the DWC, the Foster, the Woodward, the JCGC and ran 2nd in G1 Man o' War in his only turf start (between two former BC Turf winners) hasn't done enough to be a legitimate HOY is a little strange.

When you look at who he beat in those races and since the World Cup is not supposed to count, his campaign is eerily similar (and suspect) to one of this year's Horse of the Year candidates. (Guess)

Unless you think Past the Point, Barcola and Wanderin Boy are measuring sticks for Horse of the Year. Although he did beat Einstein.

[Dahoss9698]

It will though. Just look at the NTRA poll if you need some tangible proof of how the wind's blowing. Zenyatta isn't just number 1 in the poll, she took EVERY number 1 vote which is almost unheard of (and might really be a first at this point in the year).

Even Baffert acts like a giddy teenage girl when he talks about Zenyatta. When another man's horse gets these hardened trainers giddy, you should ask yourself what it is you're not understanding.

An NTRA poll?

:lol: :lol: :lol:

[FenceBored]

When you look at who he beat in those races and since the World Cup is not supposed to count, his campaign is eerily similar (and suspect) to one of this year's Horse of the Year candidates. (Guess)

Unless you think Past the Point, Barcola and Wanderin Boy are measuring sticks for Horse of the Year. Although he did beat Einstein.

Whoever said that winning foreign stakes (as a US based horse) doesn't count for Eclipse awards? The DWC counted for Cigar, and every other US based horse, so it counts for Curlin.

As to who he beat, "you can't hold it against" him. He "can only beat who gets into the gate with" him.

But, seriously. By this time in 2008 (even restricting it to US races) Curlin had beat more current year G1 winners than Zenyatta has in her past two pre-BC campaigns (this year and last year) ... combined.

[PaceAdvantage]

I don't think Blind Luck should be a contender for HOTY because she isn't facing the best competition.

It should be who beats the best competition on a consistent basis. Quality Road and Blame most closely resemble that.If some shocker jumps up and wins the BCC, then by all accounts the BEST can't really be determined all that accurately, now can it?

In cases like that, a filly like Blind Luck deserves to be in the conversation.

[Fager Fan]

An NTRA poll?

:lol: :lol: :lol:

You do realize who actually votes for the Eclipse awards, I hope.

Hint: It's not handicappers from the PA forum.

[Fager Fan]

If some shocker jumps up and wins the BCC, then by all accounts the BEST can't really be determined all that accurately, now can it?

In cases like that, a filly like Blind Luck deserves to be in the conversation.

Blind Luck got a 0 rag in her last race, and that's just the latest in the superb figures she's gotten. Given that she's probably best at 1 1/4 miles, she could well win the Classic if they weren't too fearful to put a 3yo filly in there.

[the little guy]

You do realize who actually votes for the Eclipse awards, I hope.

Hint: It's not handicappers from the PA forum.


Here's another hint.....not the people voting in an NTRA poll.

[Bullet Plane]

The NTRA poll I saw was about the same as has been posted here. 80 % for the winner Classic if it was Z , QR, Blame, or Lookin at Lucky. Same for the Bloodhorse poll. Haven't seen a different one anywhere.

So, get ready for crying towels...if they are needed. May the best horse win!

[Cardus]

The NTRA poll I saw was about the same as has been posted here. 80 % for the winner Classic if it was Z , QR, Blame, or Lookin at Lucky. Same for the Bloodhorse poll. Haven't seen a different one anywhere.

So, get ready for crying towels...if they are needed. May the best horse win!

As long as it is Zenyatta.

[PaceAdvantage]

You do realize who actually votes for the Eclipse awards, I hope.

Hint: It's not handicappers from the PA forum.Wanna bet? I guarantee you there are more than a few Eclipse award voters participating in this forum.

[the little guy]

Wanna bet? I guarantee you there are more than a few Eclipse award voters participating in this forum.


Besides gm10, name six.

[Fager Fan]

Here's another hint.....not the people voting in an NTRA poll.

The Eclipse Awards are co-sponsored by the National Thoroughbred Racing Association, Daily Racing Form and the National Turf Writers Association.

[Fager Fan]

Wanna bet? I guarantee you there are more than a few Eclipse award voters participating in this forum.

Great, but that sure missed the point, didn't it?

[the little guy]

The Eclipse Awards are co-sponsored by the National Thoroughbred Racing Association, Daily Racing Form and the National Turf Writers Association.


So what. Nobody voting in that poll is also an Eclipse award voter.

You're too funny.

[Fager Fan]

So what. Nobody voting in that poll is also an Eclipse award voter.

You're too funny.

The 2010 Thoroughbred Poll conducted by the National Thoroughbred Racing Association (NTRA), covering racing performances through Oct. 3. Rankings based on the votes of sports and thoroughbred racing media representatives on a 10-9-8-7-6-5-4-3-2-1 basis with first place votes in parentheses, record, total points and previous rank (Sex: C-colt, G-gelding, H-horse, F-filly, M-mare):

So, do you want to try again, little man?

[the little guy]

The 2010 Thoroughbred Poll conducted by the National Thoroughbred Racing Association (NTRA), covering racing performances through Oct. 3. Rankings based on the votes of sports and thoroughbred racing media representatives on a 10-9-8-7-6-5-4-3-2-1 basis with first place votes in parentheses, record, total points and previous rank (Sex: C-colt, G-gelding, H-horse, F-filly, M-mare):

So, do you want to try again, little man?


They are not the eclipse voters.

Maybe I am wrong about nobody....but it is a different voting block.

[PaceAdvantage]

Besides gm10, name six.Ummmmm....ok...you got me...