Azeri vs. Zenyatta

[exactatom]

Who do you think was better? I tried to think of a horse in the last 10 years that compared to Zenyatta. Both won Apple Blossom at Oaklawn multiple times and raced in BC Classic. Both mostly raced in California.

[cpitt84]

Well, if zenyatta beats the boys again...definitely zenyatta.

[Dahoss9698]

Well, if zenyatta beats the boys again...definitely zenyatta.

Would it be fair to say Azeri faced a better field in her BC Classic run then Zenyatta will in her repeat attempt this year?

[the little guy]

If it was a match race Zenyatta could have filled out the exacta.

[Robert Fischer]

If it was a match race Zenyatta could have filled out the exacta.

literally

[letswastemoney]

Impossible to say who was better given the different surfaces, unless you're using Zenyatta's whopping 2 dirt races to compare with Azeri's all dirt career.

[castaway01]

Would it be fair to say Azeri faced a better field in her BC Classic run then Zenyatta will in her repeat attempt this year?

That would be quite fair to say.

[NTamm1215]

Would it be fair to say Azeri faced a better field in her BC Classic run then Zenyatta will in her repeat attempt this year?

It might be fair to say Azeri faced a better field in the 2002 BC Distaff than Zenyatta will face in this year's Classic. The 2004 Classic is a different issue altogether. I think the depth of that race is under-appreciated. You had horses in it that had won (just in their starts prior to the BCC) the Woodward, Ky Cup Classic, Pacific Classic, Spinster, Travers, Super Derby, Jockey Club Gold Cup, and Hawthorne Gold Cup.

[Spalding No!]

I think the depth of that race is under-appreciated. You had horses in it that had won (just in their starts prior to the BCC) the Woodward, Ky Cup Classic, Pacific Classic, Spinster, Travers, Super Derby, Jockey Club Gold Cup, and Hawthorne Gold Cup.
That's kind of a bogus argument. This year's field will have the winners of many of those races as well.

[NTamm1215]

That's kind of a bogus argument. This year's field will have the winners of many of those races as well.

You're right, the difference is there were good horses in those races. Horses that nowadays would be hailed as all-time greats. What would Roses in May do to this year's Classic field?!?

Go through who ran in the 2004 Classic and compare it to this year's slate and get back to me.

[cpitt84]

Would it be fair to say Azeri faced a better field in her BC Classic run then Zenyatta will in her repeat attempt this year?

While we will never know, I believe Zenyatta would have beat those horses Azeri faced and she will beat the males again.

[RXB]

Do you honestly believe that Zenyatta would've defeated Ghostzapper, especially with the way that '04 Classic race played out? (Soft fractions, totally favoured GZ.) Seems essentially impossible.

[bks]

Zenyatta would almost certainly not have beaten Ghostzapper in that race, c'mon.

[redshift1]

Ghostzapper probably the best since 1980. Zenyatta not even in the discussion.

[Robert Fischer]

Had Zenyatta run in the 2004 Classic, and been much the best, she would have been about in a photo-finish with Roses in May 4L back. If you think she is merely the equal of Ghostzapper(or somewhere close), she would have most likely been 3rd in front of Pleasantly Perfect.

[Robert Fischer]

Had Zenyatta run in the 2004 Classic, and been much the best, she would have been about in a photo-finish with Roses in May 4L back. If you think she is merely the equal of Ghostzapper(or somewhere close), she would have most likely been 3rd in front of Pleasantly Perfect.

SWAMI SEZ

In the 2008 Classic, Zenyatta and Raven's Pass finish well ahead of a tiring Ghostzapper.

In the 2009 Classic Zenyatta wins as well.


http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_1OMiSrEJXnY/SMA55VivJoI/AAAAAAAAIeI/4K4lOmhVW-g/s400/berman+swami.jpg

[Pine Tree Lane]

Don't think she could have beaten anyone in that field...

She was 5 months old.

[the little guy]

Don't think she could have beaten anyone in that field...

She was 5 months old.


There are more than a few posters around the internet that don't think that would have stopped her.

[tubesockshakur]

that little yearling was fast as can be.....she could get her last qtr. in 23 and change :faint:

[Dahoss9698]

While we will never know, I believe Zenyatta would have beat those horses Azeri faced and she will beat the males again.

Not what I asked, but wow.

[big frank]

Just ask Mike Smith.... i would bet he would ride ZEN !!!!!!!!!1

[tzipi]

Zen never would've beat Ghostzapper in that race.

For the other poster saying RP would've beat GZ. Raven's Pass was a turf horse and his trainer said he never would've ran Raven Pass on the dirt. Ran him because it was poly.

[Bullet Plane]

I'd say Azeri was better managed until Lukas got a hold of her. Then he put her in too deep, and got her crushed.

I'd say Z has been poorly managed with zero shipping, zero running against the boys, zero going to the Dubai World Cup which was held on the plastics, zero imagination, zero, zero, zero.

I'd say Z had much more potential, but we'll never really know - because she has been campaigned so timidly.

It's also very hard to put her in historical context because of her low Beyer Speed figures. Beyers can be low for plastic runners- Baffert says to add ten Beyer points to the speed figure to get the dirt number. But, I'm not sure there is a hell of a lot of evidence for that approach. Not saying he is wrong, just dunno.

I'd say she is going to get crushed in the BC classic. However, I also have to admit that I have very little information to go on- just don't know how those plastic numbers will translate.

Because of the timid campaign, the big one at Churchill will be the defining race for me- if she wins- she's all that. If she loses, she sucks.

[Spalding No!]

I'd say Azeri was better managed until Lukas got a hold of her. Then he put her in too deep, and got her crushed.

I'd say Z has been poorly managed with zero shipping, zero running against the boys, zero going to the Dubai World Cup which was held on the plastics, zero imagination, zero, zero, zero.

Until Lukas took over Azeri, she had nearly an identical 2-year run as Zenyatta sans the BC Classic. So it's a bit inconsistent to say one was better managed than the other.

As far as Lukas getting her "crushed", well for starters, it should be noted that she was retired by Laura De Seroux et al. with some sort of tendon injury prior to being put back in training a few months later by Michael Paulson and DW Lukas.

And while she became a bit of an in-and-outer under her new trainer (I'd say a lot of that was from an uneven campaign of sprinting and facing males amid starts against a razor-sharp Sightseek), Azeri probably won more "detractors" from the De Seroux era over to her fan base once she acquitted herself admirably on more than one occassion despite a very demanding campaign. Dare I say that Zenyatta would find herself the darling of all racing fans had her silly connections let her roll this year?

Personally, as far as Azeri is concerned, I was sold after that heartbreaking defeat in the 7f Humana Distaff, an almost inexplicable race to run in after her huge comeback in the Apple Blossom.

[the little guy]

Personally, as far as Azeri is concerned, I was sold after that heartbreaking defeat in the 7f Humana Distaff, an almost inexplicable race to run in after her huge comeback in the Apple Blossom.


For me it was the Personal Ensign, where, one race after beating the mighty Sightseek in the Go for Wand, she dueled with Roar Emotion through 6F in 1:09 4/5, and was narrowly beaten very late in the race by Storm Flag Flying ( who was 2nd in the BC Distaff later that year ).

Thankfully D Wayne gave racing fans a chance to see what kind of horse she could be under a variety of circumstances. She was another horse who showed more in defeat than many do in victory.

[Spalding No!]

For me it was the Personal Ensign, where, one race after beating the mighty Sightseek in the Go for Wand, she dueled with Roar Emotion through 6F in 1:09 4/5, and was narrowly beaten very late in the race by Storm Flag Flying ( who was 2nd in the BC Distaff later that year ).

Thankfully D Wayne gave racing fans a chance to see what kind of horse she could be under a variety of circumstances. She was another horse who showed more in defeat than many do in victory.

In addition, though I typically don't sing DW Lukas's praises, how many other trainers would have immediately retired Azeri after she virtually eased in the Ogden Phipps?

[bks]

It's also very hard to put her in historical context because of her low Beyer Speed figures. Beyers can be low for plastic runners- Baffert says to add ten Beyer points to the speed figure to get the dirt number.


Bullet Plane: do you know how silly this sounds? Because of her Beyer Speed Figures, it's hard to put her in historical contexts? Because of her BSF???

I guess it's a good thing Andy Beyer was born so horses could be placed in their appropriate historical context. And the Zenyattaphobes think her fans are the zealots!

I'd say she is going to get crushed in the BC classic. However, I also have to admit that I have very little information to go on- just don't know how those plastic numbers will translate.

Then what is your opinion that she is going to "get crushed" based on? Numbers that you have no confidence will translate? Do you think that's all the information you have to go on?

Of course you do.

[the little guy]

Bullet Plane: do you know how silly this sounds? Because of her Beyer Speed Figures, it's hard to put her in historical contexts? Because of her BSF???

I guess it's a good thing Andy Beyer was born so horses could be placed in their appropriate historical context. And the Zenyattaphobes think her fans are the zealots!



Then what is your opinion that she is going to "get crushed" based on? Numbers that you have no confidence will translate? Do you think that's all the information you have to go on?

Of course you do.

Here you have it, a poster who early on shared his lack of knowledge about speed figures.....


Beyer numbers predict nothing. Never have, and never will.




...chastising another for understanding their merit in comparing horses from different years. Nobody declared it an exact science....but someone with no understanding of them mocks someone else for using them.

Is it just me, or do a substantial number of Zenyatta's fans display a complete lack of interest in speed figures? I wonder why.

[Charlie D]

Is it just me, or do a substantial number of Zenyatta's fans display a complete lack of interest in speed figures? .

Strange that tlg as they do seem to show great interest in other types of mumbers.

[Robert Fischer]

For the other poster saying RP would've beat GZ. Raven's Pass was a turf horse and his trainer said he never would've ran Raven Pass on the dirt. Ran him because it was poly.

that was the whole point.

In '08 the great GZ would have been a easy toss for me, easily dusted by Curlin(even with the bad ride), and my pick Henrythenavigator(even with the bad footwork), as well as Zenyatta and Ravens Pass. In '04 Zenyatta would have been a toss DUSTED by GZ and prob RiM.

the only reason i even mention it, is because they are textbook examples for this season.

[bks]

Andy, I know you're not as dumb as you sounded above.

If you think Beyer speed figures predict anything about a horse's subsequent performance, state it now or do everyone the favor of shutting your mouth for once.

You will of course show nothing of the kind.

[the little guy]

Andy, I know you're not as dumb as you sounded above.

If you think Beyer speed figures predict anything about a horse's subsequent performance, state it now or do everyone the favor of shutting your mouth for once.

You will of course show nothing of the kind.


Is there an English translation available?

[bks]

Your Zenyattaphobia acting up again?

Zenyattaphobia:

–noun
A progressive condition, aggravated by winning streaks in G1 company without a loss, marked by an unacknowledged fear that there might be aspects to racehorse greatness that are resistant to current efforts by small men [literally and figuratively] at numerical representation.

Symptoms can include hostility to others who don't suffer from the same condition, unwarranted self-assurance, allowing roughly 90% of your posts on message boards to consist of childish putdowns or sarcastic replies and, most prominently, a belief in "synthetic exclusionalism".

[Charlie D]

Your Zenyattaphobia acting up again?

Zenyattaphobia:

–noun
A progressive condition, aggravated by winning streaks in G1 company without a loss, marked by an unacknowledged fear that there might be aspects to racehorse greatness that are resistant to current efforts by small men [literally and figuratively] at numerical representation.

Symptoms include hostility to others who don't suffer from the same condition, unwarranted self-assurance, allowing roughly 90% of your posts on message boards to consist of childish putdowns or sarcastic replies and, most prominently, a belief in "synthetic exclusionalism".

Told yer they like using other numbers.

[bks]

Forgive Charlie, everyone. He likes to run with the foxes and hunt with the hounds.

Come race day, his money will be on the mare (assuming he bets).

[Robert Fischer]

i thought TLG was talking about comparing cross-era, not subsequent starts...


I agree with the cross-era stuff (normalizing for whether beyers are getting higher or whatever)
But with Zenyatta, since she hasn't run in enough final time fast races, or even the traditional big dirt races - yet, she isn't really applicable to a BSF comparison. Mike Smith and her weak competition and the dynamics of her races have been a "governor" to her BSFs.

[Charlie D]

her weak competition and the dynamics of her races have been a "governor" to her BSFs.


Here is someone who understands how ALL these numbers are achieved.

[bks]

[QUOTE]Robert wrote:
yet, she isn't really applicable to a BSF comparison. Mike Smith and her weak competition and the dynamics of her races have been a "governor" to her BSFs.

Charlie D wrote:
Here is someone who understands how ALL these numbers are achieved.

You're not really implying that Robert's point is new to this several-month-long discussion, are you, Charlie?

[Sericm]

Ghostzapper probably the best since 1980. Zenyatta not even in the discussion.

What planet do you guys live on! Ghostzapper faced 3 horses ea in his first 2 races of 04, 6 horses when he barely beat St. Liam and then won the BC.
THIS IS A GREAT CAMPAIGN!!!!! He was the most overrated hoy in history and talk about a managed Campaign.

[Charlie D]

[QUOTE]



You're not really implying that Robert's point is new to this several-month-long discussion, are you, Charlie?


No, i'm stating something.

Has Zenmania made you lose your reading ability now???

[bks]

More straw man nonsense. You've already established in past threads that you avoid questions you don't like, so here's another easy request for you to avoid:

Please make a meaningful prediction for Zenyatta's performance in the BCC based on her Beyer Speed Figures. Assume any field composition and track condition you like. Be specific, and explain how you used the numbers to come to your conclusion.

All others who want to play are welcome to as well.

[Dahoss9698]

The Zenyatta folk sure are getting nasty. Only going to get worse when she flops.

[Charlie D]

Don't know who is running, don't know track comdition, don't know likely Pace of race etc and this idiot bks is asking people to make a prediction


read sig bks imho.

[Nikki1997]

The Zenyatta folk sure are getting nasty. Only going to get worse when she flops.

Can't speak for any Z fan but myself, but here's the gist of it. Your favorite is retired and there's, what, 4 or 5 threads on here that have Z's name in them, right? For ALL the crap this mare gets, it is comical she generates so much interest.

You and a few others just can't stop posting about her. Too funny.

The most lame come backs by you and others is to accuse someone who has something nice to say about her or defend her as being terribly uninformed. Actually, where this mare is concerned, I've never seen more uninformed people in one place. LOL.

[Charlie D]

Can't speak for any Z fan but myself, but here's the gist of it. Your favorite is retired and there's, what, 4 or 5 threads on here that have Z's name in them, right? For ALL the crap this mare gets, it is comical she generates so much interest.

You and a few others just can't stop posting about her. Too funny.

The most lame come backs by you and others is to accuse someone who has something nice to say about her or defend her as being terribly uninformed. Actually, where this mare is concerned, I've never seen more uninformed people in one place. LOL.

So if you don't think she is the Greatest, you don't believe the Hype, you are considered a clueless idiot who knows frig all about horses and horse racing.

We get it.

[bks]

I asked Charlie to:
Please make a meaningful prediction for Zenyatta's performance in the BCC based on her Beyer Speed Figures. Assume any field composition and track condition you like. Be specific, and explain how you used the numbers to come to your conclusion.(my emphasis)

Charlie responded:
Don't know who is running, don't know track comdition, don't know likely Pace of race etc and this idiot bks is asking people to make a prediction

Charlie, I'm sorry if I caused you any distress. I'm going to leave you alone for awhile, because I hate to see you suffering from whatever the hell you have.

[Charlie D]

Do they treat people who live in a fantasy world where you live bks?? If so, seek help bud.

[Dahoss9698]

Can't speak for any Z fan but myself, but here's the gist of it. Your favorite is retired and there's, what, 4 or 5 threads on here that have Z's name in them, right? For ALL the crap this mare gets, it is comical she generates so much interest.

You and a few others just can't stop posting about her. Too funny.

The most lame come backs by you and others is to accuse someone who has something nice to say about her or defend her as being terribly uninformed. Actually, where this mare is concerned, I've never seen more uninformed people in one place. LOL.

You're terribly uninformed. Both of you.

[Spalding No!]

...there's, what, 4 or 5 threads on here that have Z's name in them, right? For ALL the crap this mare gets, it is comical she generates so much interest.

This, simply, is what is known as "hype".

You and a few others just can't stop posting about her. Too funny.

Nobody ever said she was insignificant.

The most lame come backs by you and others is to accuse someone who has something nice to say about her or defend her as being terribly uninformed. Actually, where this mare is concerned, I've never seen more uninformed people in one place. LOL.

I love the understated "something nice to say". Most of the comments praising Zenyatta have been hyperbolic to say the least. This is what the "detractors" react to.

Now if you'll excuse me, I have to go to one of the other "Z threads" to see what Zenyatta says to the fallen Mike Smith after coming to his aid following a victory in the 2010 BC Classic riderless, geared down, by a length and a half.

By the way, obviously she will speak English to New Mexico native Smith, but do you think she also speaks French and perhaps even a little Italian?

[chickenhead]

I like it -- she nudges him back to life, he stirs and she nuzzles his face. Tight close up, she whispers something to him in French, and at first a look of bewilderment, but then it sets in, and he slowly nods his head, gritty determined face. Fade to black.

We're all set for the sequel: Zenyatta II, Prix de l'Arc.

.

[thaskalos]

I like it -- she nudges him back to life, he stirs and she nuzzles his face. Tight close up, she whispers something to him in French, and at first a look of bewilderment, but then it sets in, and he slowly nods his head. Fade to black.

We're all set for the sequel: Zenyatta II, Prix de l'Arc.

.A heart-wrenching saga, IMO...can't wait to see it on the "big screen".

[Charlie D]

Got to be a future in Hollywood as scriptwriter for the Zenyatta trilogy for Chickenhead

[bks]

Dahoss9698 wrote:
The Zenyatta folk sure are getting nasty. Only going to get worse when she flops.

Your concern for board decorum is touching. Clearly it doesn't extend to noting when a fellow traveler of yours, on this very thread, grossly mischaracterizes the statements of others, thus triggering the latest round of nastiness for which he is most associated with around these parts.

And if Zenyatta flops, well, it's only one race after all. You don't expect her to win every time, do you? I mean, she's already done that, and what has that proven?

[Charlie D]

I asked Charlie to:
Please make a meaningful prediction for Zenyatta's performance in the BCC based on her Beyer Speed Figures. Assume any field composition and track condition you like. Be specific, and explain how you used the numbers to come to your conclusion.(my emphasis)


Pleae explain to us how you make a meaningful prediction using fantasy bks

[bks]

Spalding No! wrote:
I love the understated "something nice to say". Most of the comments praising Zenyatta have been hyperbolic to say the least. This is what the "detractors" react to.

I agree. But the question I never see answered is: why does the outsized adulation for Zenyatta bother her detractors?

The only thing that matters in all of this is that she is not getting the respect she deserves, for reasons that are frankly specious. (I said respect, not adulation). She likes dirt just fine, has already shown that and will probably like Churchill just fine. She's already been there, and I don't think Shirreffs would go back if he believed she didn't like the track. If she gets beat, I only hope it's because she wasn't good enough against that field.

As for the adulation, who gives a damn? It's true: a lot of people have overvalued her ability because they simply adore her. But love always does that to some. Why does it warrant a backlash of insults and ridicule? Why not simply ignore it? It's not like the sport's standard-bearers are on the cusp of a consensus that she belongs with Man 'O' War, Secretariat, Dr. Fager and the handful of others securely tucked behind the velvet rope of the pantheon.

So the excess adulation has leaked into the judgment of some people. At least they have a good excuse for getting it wrong. The Zenyattaphobes, who are also wrong about her, can't blame adulation. They have only their fear to blame.

[Charlie D]

But the question I never see answered is: why does the outsized adulation for Zenyatta bother her detractors?



Why does the analysis of Zen and the races she has run in bother Zenmania fans so much Bks

Can they not handle the truth??

[bks]

I'm sorry if I freaked you out with the word "meaningful", Charlie.

I don't think you'll do it, but I was only asking you make a prediction based on BSFs using any set of BCC circumstances you like. Be specific and as precise as the numbers warrant. That will suffice as "meaningful", ok?

[Charlie D]

Yep, you can see me freaking out can't you - more fantasy bks

[bks]

Why does the analysis of Zen and the races she has run in bother Zenmania fans so much Bks

We all have our analyses, Charlie. I've presented analogy after analogy on the subject to demonstrate the strength of her body of work, and you didn't respond when I presented one of them directly to you recently.

Dan Illman has posted a useful list of every stakes winner she's beaten, and what races they won.

http://www.drf.com/blogs/who-has-zenyatta-beaten-past-performance-requests


20 Grade 1 winners (including several males winners over synthetic and two BC Distaff champions)

13 Grade II winners

[Charlie D]

We all have our analyses, Charlie. I've presented analogy after analogy on the subject to demonstrate the strength of her body of work, and you didn't respond when I presented one of them directly to you recently.

Dan Illman has posted a useful list of every stakes winner she's beaten, and what races they won.

http://www.drf.com/blogs/who-has-zenyatta-beaten-past-performance-requests


20 Grade 1 winners (including several males winners over synthetic and two BC Distaff champions)

13 Grade II winners


Yes, brilliant analysis and about as useful as a chocolate fireguard when it comes to handicapping horse races and assigning probabilities.

[Headbanger]

We all have our analyses, Charlie. I've presented analogy after analogy on the subject to demonstrate the strength of her body of work, and you didn't respond when I presented one of them directly to you recently.

Dan Illman has posted a useful list of every stakes winner she's beaten, and what races they won.

http://www.drf.com/blogs/who-has-zenyatta-beaten-past-performance-requests


20 Grade 1 winners (including several males winners over synthetic and two BC Distaff champions)

13 Grade II winners

Come on, you can't really put much stock into this sham of a list can you? Let's go over this "list":

Of the G1 winners, the following were only synthetic/turf G1 winners: Romance is Diane, Santa Teresita, Double Trouble, Carriage Trail, Life is Sweet, Gio Ponti, Twice Over, Richard's Kid, Awesome Gem, Rip Van Winkle, and Einstein.

Of the G1 dirt winners, let's take a closer look at that list:
-Tough Tiz's Sis:Really? She ran one good race in the slop and it was in New York.
-Ginger Punch: She was ok, but she wasn't really a great horse who the one day she faced Zenyatta didn't run a step.
-Hystericalady: Zenyatta never got to face her over dirt which was clearly her preferred surface and her better surface as Zenyatta strictly faced her over synthetics. I have a feeling Zenyatta might have lost to her on dirt.
-Cocoa Beach: Another who was really just an average horse on dirt and probably better on synthetics and turf in all honesty.
-Music Note: Was pretty good, but was never really spectacular, and was arguably not as good as Cocoa Beach.
-Summer Bird: Ended up being a very good dirt horse by the end of the year and I would have taken him heads up against Zenyatta on the dirt. Unfortunately they met on synthetics.
-Colonel John: Was never much in the first place. Was a better synthetic horse and his claim to fame was winning a photo in the Travers on a head bob, and he never came close to that race after that. His turf race was very good though.
-Mine That Bird: Got good for a short period of time and yet again only beat him on synthetics.
-Girolamo: Not quite fair considering his G1 win is at 6 Furlongs on the dirt.

Pretty much a totally skewed list that doesn't take any of the circumstances into play.

[bks]

Headbanger wrote:
Come on, you can't really put much stock into this sham of a list can you? Let's go over this "list":

Of the G1 winners, the following were only synthetic/turf G1 winners: Romance is Diane, Santa Teresita, Double Trouble, Carriage Trail, Life is Sweet, Gio Ponti, Twice Over, Richard's Kid, Awesome Gem, Rip Van Winkle, and Einstein.

Of the G1 dirt winners, let's take a closer look at that list:
-Tough Tiz's Sis:Really? She ran one good race in the slop and it was in New York.
-Ginger Punch: She was ok, but she wasn't really a great horse who the one day she faced Zenyatta didn't run a step.
-Hystericalady: Zenyatta never got to face her over dirt which was clearly her preferred surface and her better surface as Zenyatta strictly faced her over synthetics. I have a feeling Zenyatta might have lost to her on dirt.
-Cocoa Beach: Another who was really just an average horse on dirt and probably better on synthetics and turf in all honesty.
-Music Note: Was pretty good, but was never really spectacular, and was arguably not as good as Cocoa Beach.
-Summer Bird: Ended up being a very good dirt horse by the end of the year and I would have taken him heads up against Zenyatta on the dirt. Unfortunately they met on synthetics.
-Colonel John: Was never much in the first place. Was a better synthetic horse and his claim to fame was winning a photo in the Travers on a head bob, and he never came close to that race after that. His turf race was very good though.
-Mine That Bird: Got good for a short period of time and yet again only beat him on synthetics.
-Girolamo: Not quite fair considering his G1 win is at 6 Furlongs on the dirt.

Pretty much a totally skewed list that doesn't take any of the circumstances into play.

First of all, you're wrong. Einstein won a GI on dirt. Not that it matters at all in the scheme of things, but it does to your silly argument.

Otherwise your basic complaint is: she didn't run on dirt against some of these, and you "feel like" she might have lost to horses Hystericalady and Summer Bird on it. Quite novel.

A textbook invocation of the double-standard: either the horses Zenyatta beat on synthetics were better on dirt [diminishing the value of her victory], or they were only good on synthetics, and therefore not really good horses. We get it. That's why you waive your hand at Life is Sweet, Richard's Kid, Einstein and Gio Ponti.

And when Zenyatta does beat a good horse on dirt like Ginger Punch, it's because they had an off-day or weren't really any good to begin with, despite being an Eclipse Award winner.

Name any horse in training you like facing identical competition over 17 races, over any surface at the same distances. Every one would have been defeated, and most if not all would have multiple defeats. But apparently a unique ability to maintain top form over an almost three-year period with no exceptions, while racing for the most part in G1 races open to anyone of her sex, and then against males in the richest race the sport has to offer, is not an indication of greatness.

[Headbanger]

First of all, you're wrong. Einstein won a GI on dirt. Not that it matters at all in the scheme of things, but it does to your silly argument.

Otherwise your basic complaint is: she didn't run on dirt against some of these, and you "feel like" she might have lost to horses Hystericalady and Summer Bird on it. Quite novel.

A textbook invocation of the double-standard: either the horses Zenyatta beat on synthetics were better on dirt [diminishing the value of her victory], or they were only good on synthetics, and therefore not really good horses. We get it. That's why you waive your hand at Life is Sweet, Richard's Kid, Einstein and Gio Ponti.

And when Zenyatta does beat a good horse on dirt like Ginger Punch, it's because they had an off-day or weren't really any good to begin with, despite being an Eclipse Award winner.

Name any horse in training you like facing identical competition over 17 races, over any surface at the same distances. Every one would have been defeated, and most if not all would have multiple defeats. But apparently a unique ability to maintain top form over an almost three-year period with no exceptions, while racing for the most part in G1 races open to anyone of her sex, and then against males in the richest race the sport has to offer, is not an indication of greatness.

Really, I'd like for you to point out the G1 on dirt that Einstein won, except you may have some trouble with that...you have trouble with pretty much any rational argument anyway, but you'll certainly have trouble finding Einstein's G1 win on dirt because simply put, there is no G1 on dirt that he won. But don't let that get in the way of your rebuttal.

And anyway, Ginger Punch wasn't that good of a horse to begin with. Come on, don't come at me with Richard's Kid. Richard's Kid f'ing sucks. If you are going to tell me that Zenyatta deserves credit for beating Richard's Kid you are going to be on your own with that argument.

Back to the main point of this thread though, and that is to compare the slugs that Zenyatta beat to the horses that Azeri ran against isn't fair to the horses that Azeri ran against because Azeri actually ran against real horses that would have wiped the floor against the slugs that Zenyatta's running against. Take Charge Lady, Farda Amiga, Summer Colony, Imperial Gesture, they would have laughed at the horses Zenyatta's been facing. If Azeri faced Zenyatta's schedule she would be undefeated too.

Hell in that 2002 BC Distaff field alone she faced Farda Amiga (Kentucky Oaks and Alabama winner), Imperial Gesture (Beldame and Gazelle winner), Starrer (Santa Margarita and Santa Maria winner), Mandy's Gold (Ruffian winner), Take Charge Lady (Spinster and Ashland winner), Two Item Limit (a G2 winner and MG1SP), and Summer Colony (Personal Ensign and La Canada winner). That would be 6 G1 winners and 1 G2 winner behind her in one race. And that's not even moving on to beating oustanding runners like Sightseek.

[Cardus]

We all have our analyses, Charlie. I've presented analogy after analogy on the subject to demonstrate the strength of her body of work, and you didn't respond when I presented one of them directly to you recently.

Dan Illman has posted a useful list of every stakes winner she's beaten, and what races they won.

http://www.drf.com/blogs/who-has-zenyatta-beaten-past-performance-requests


20 Grade 1 winners (including several males winners over synthetic and two BC Distaff champions)

13 Grade II winners

"Dan Illman" and "useful" in the same sentence?

You're joking, right?

[Headbanger]

"Dan Illman" and "useful" in the same sentence?

You're joking, right?

Sharp Post

[bks]

You're right, headbanger. Einstein did not win a G1 on dirt. It was a G2. I stand corrected and apologize for saying you were wrong.

[Headbanger]

You're right, headbanger. Einstein did not win a G1 on dirt. It was a G2. I stand corrected and apologize for saying you were wrong.

He was absolutely a neat horse who probably had some bad luck along the way that prevented him from winning a G1 race on the dirt, but in all honesty he was better on the turf/synthetic too, as his best race was probably the Mervin Muniz when he had a ridiculous trip winning, despite having to avoid a Frankel horse who got pulled up. Yes, it's all speculative, but the point I was trying to make was the best horses that Zenyatta faced, she faced on a synthetic surface that was not the best surface for the other horses. If Zenyatta had beaten Hystericalady and Summer Bird on dirt, yeah, she would have gotten credit she deserved, but she beat them on a surface that clearly wasn't their best, so it's hard to take those results at face value.

[Cardus]

He was absolutely a neat horse who probably had some bad luck along the way that prevented him from winning a G1 race on the dirt, but in all honesty he was better on the turf/synthetic too, as his best race was probably the Mervin Muniz when he had a ridiculous trip winning, despite having to avoid a Frankel horse who got pulled up. Yes, it's all speculative, but the point I was trying to make was the best horses that Zenyatta faced, she faced on a synthetic surface that was not the best surface for the other horses. If Zenyatta had beaten Hystericalady and Summer Bird on dirt, yeah, she would have gotten credit she deserved, but she beat them on a surface that clearly wasn't their best, so it's hard to take those results at face value.

I remember that wonderful effort, and I believe that I had keyed the place horse. (It wasn't Cloudy's Knight, was it?) Of course, I had no complaints about my key running second with what Einstein overcame to win.

[bks]

Headbanger wrote:
Yes, it's all speculative, but the point I was trying to make was the best horses that Zenyatta faced, she faced on a synthetic surface that was not the best surface for the other horses. If Zenyatta had beaten Hystericalady and Summer Bird on dirt, yeah, she would have gotten credit she deserved, but she beat them on a surface that clearly wasn't their best, so it's hard to take those results at face value.

That's fine. But then why doesn't she get the credit for beating a very good horse in Einstein on his preferred surface? And you dissed Richard's Kid, but he's won three G1's on synthetic at 1 1/8 -1 1/4 miles. He's beaten Einstein and Rail Trip in the process (who also loves synthetic). Yet she crushed him. He may suck on dirt, but RK is very good when right on synthetic.

And what about Gio Ponti? He's best on turf, but if Zenyatta hadn't entered the BCC, he would be a BCC champion on synthetic! So he can run on it a bit, too. She went by him easily with much in reserve.

Point is: it's not like she hasn't achieved anything. And the manner in which she's achieved it suggests the well is significantly deeper.

Azeri was a great, great horse. It's speculation, yes,but Azeri would very likely not have been undefeated with Zenyatta's schedule. Azeri lost both of her races at 1 1/4 [admittedly against good and great company]. She would have very likely lost in the Classic last year.

It's not appropriate to hold it against Zenyatta that there's no other great horses in training right now. She still has to beat what's in front of her, and she has. So did Azeri, of course, 14 of 15 times, while she had a similar schedule to Zenyatta's. There's very little between them in terms of their record to that point.

How many of Azeri's last 7 races would Zenyatta have won, do you think? At least two, wouldn't you agree?

[Charlie D]

But then why doesn't she get the credit for beating a very good horse in Einstein on his preferred surface




Saying Einstein is very good is same as saying Zen has beat the best in world. Niether are actually correct and a quick look at the PP's will tell you this.

Horses like Goldikova are very good. There is a big difference.

There is no wonder some think Zen is the Greatest.

[the little guy]

Saying Einstein is very good is same as saying Zen has beat the best in world. Niether are actually correct and a quick look at the PP's will tell you this.

Horses like Goldikova are very good. There is a big difference.

There is no wonder some think Zen is the Greatest.

Great point. Einstein was a really neat horse, but nobody that knows ANYTHING about racing history would EVER confuse him for anything other than a routinely talented horse. To use him to put Zenyatta into the context of greatness is, seriously, laughable....and shows that person to be severely ( and this is being kind ) lacking in any kind of historical perspective.

Einstein's skill was being roughly equally talented on three surfaces...while not being relatively exceptional on any of them. In relation to " great " he is about as close as I am to being " tall. "

[FenceBored]

That's fine. But then why doesn't she get the credit for beating a very good horse in Einstein on his preferred surface? And you dissed Richard's Kid, but he's won three G1's on synthetic at 1 1/8 -1 1/4 miles. He's beaten Einstein and Rail Trip in the process (who also loves synthetic). Yet she crushed him. He may suck on dirt, but RK is very good when right on synthetic.


Watch Einstein in the Classic. Watch him get "steadied sharply 5/16p" in the Classic. Watch him lose 6 lengths on the leaders between the 5/16th pole and the 1/4 pole in the Classic. Now make the argument he had any chance of running his best race down the lane. That's why she doesn't get full credit from me for beating Einstein in the Classic. Rip Van Winkle took him out of the race just when he should have started to move.

Anyway, his preferred surface was turf.

[Dahoss9698]

Your concern for board decorum is touching. Clearly it doesn't extend to noting when a fellow traveler of yours, on this very thread, grossly mischaracterizes the statements of others, thus triggering the latest round of nastiness for which he is most associated with around these parts.

And if Zenyatta flops, well, it's only one race after all. You don't expect her to win every time, do you? I mean, she's already done that, and what has that proven?

This sums it up well. Thanks for making my job a lot easier.

Anyone disagreeing that she is the equine version of the Beatles is a big meanie. And a poor showing in her biggest test will mean nothing. Sounds about right.

Hero worship:

idolize: love unquestioningly and uncritically or to excess; venerate as an idol; "Many teenagers idolized the Beatles"

[Charlie D]

Great point. Einstein was a really neat horse, but nobody that knows ANYTHING about racing history would EVER confuse him for anything other than a routinely talented horse. To use him to put Zenyatta into the context of greatness is, seriously, laughable....and shows that person to be severely ( and this is being kind ) lacking in any kind of historical perspective.

Einstein's skill was being roughly equally talented on three surfaces...while not being relatively exceptional on any of them. In relation to " great " he is about as close as I am to being " tall. "



If people are over- rating the beaten horses tlg, they will certainly over-rate the winner.


More reading and less talking is probably required

[5k-claim]

If people are over- rating the beaten horses tlg, they will certainly over-rate the winner.

More reading and less talking is probably required

Very interesting, Charlie.

Out of curiosity, what is on the reading list that you would suggest?

[cpitt84]

It's not appropriate to hold it against Zenyatta that there's no other great horses in training right now. She still has to beat what's in front of her, and she has. So did Azeri, of course, 14 of 15 times, while she had a similar schedule to Zenyatta's. There's very little between them in terms of their record to that point.


Completely agree.

If she wins this BCC, she would have beaten the best male horses in training and it would be a stronger field than last year's.

But, I am certain there will be people on here saying "well she only beat them once." or "quality road, blame, LAL, isn't that great of a horse because...."

[Charlie D]

I've posted links on few occasions 5k, but they now seem longer no longer available so can't re-post some, however a search may bear fruit if the articles have not been deleted , as for books, Mordin On Time, MPH should be of assistance and of course there is lots of wheat to be found amongst the loads on chaff on PA.


Hope this helps.

[Charlie D]

Here you go 5k,

http://betting.betfair.com/horse-racing/betting-strategy/betting-strategy-simon-rowlands-on-time-analysis-part-o-240309.html

Google is great :)


Hope it helps and all the best.

[5k-claim]

Here you go 5k,

http://betting.betfair.com/horse-racing/betting-strategy/betting-strategy-simon-rowlands-on-time-analysis-part-o-240309.html

Google is great :)


Hope it helps and all the best.

Sounds fine. Thanks for the link.

[Charlie D]

Spend lots of time reading 5k - I do. ;)

[PaceAdvantage]

Your concern for board decorum is touching. Clearly it doesn't extend to noting when a fellow traveler of yours, on this very thread, grossly mischaracterizes the statements of others, thus triggering the latest round of nastiness for which he is most associated with around these parts.In the grand scheme of things, he hardly ever posts. What are you getting so riled up about?

[PaceAdvantage]

I agree. But the question I never see answered is: why does the outsized adulation for Zenyatta bother her detractors?Because it comes at the expense of those who came before her...who truly EARNED that kind of adulation.

It's called having historical perspective.

[bks]

But I mean why does adulation from less-than-serious fans bother you?

There are people who think we never landed on the moon, PA. Some of them are pretty insistent about it. Should it bother people who are knowledgeable about NASA?

[Dahoss9698]

But I mean why does adulation from less-than-serious fans bother you?

There are people who think we never landed on the moon, PA. Some of them are pretty insistent about it. Should it bother people who are knowledgeable about NASA?

Why does all of this bother you?

[thaskalos]

Adulation is the wrong word...it is only a difference of opinion.

Unfortunately, differences of opinion sometimes lead to arguments...and things go too far.

There is nothing personal going on here. Since we don't even know each other... how mad at each other can we possibly get?

It's just that neither side likes to be belittled by the other.

Stubborness is a common horseplayer characteristic...and we all possess more than our share.

[FenceBored]

But I mean why does adulation from less-than-serious fans bother you?

There are people who think we never landed on the moon, PA. Some of them are pretty insistent about it. Should it bother people who are knowledgeable about NASA?

Yes, and it does "bother people knowledgable about NASA," not least because the votes of Apollo-deniers influence public officials who control NASA and it's budget. So, these fruitloops are partially responsible for the pitiful state of the US's manned space program.

[eastie]

This sums it up well. Thanks for making my job a lot easier.

Anyone disagreeing that she is the equine version of the Beatles is a big meanie. And a poor showing in her biggest test will mean nothing. Sounds about right.

Hero worship:


idolize: love unquestioningly and uncritically or to excess; venerate as an idol; "Many teenagers idolized the Beatles"







Zenyatta....the Beatles of hossracing....sounds about right. They were that good. She's that good. Rachel would be The Monkees.

[cj]

Zenyatta....the Beatles of hossracing....sounds about right. They were that good. She's that good. Rachel would be The Monkees.

Did the Monkees win the Album of the Year Grammy?

UQNqk54HPdE&feature=related

[Dahoss9698]

Zenyatta....the Beatles of hossracing....sounds about right. They were that good. She's that good. Rachel would be The Monkees.

We really didn't need any more evidence of how confused you are.

[exactatom]

Zenyatta....the Beatles of hossracing....sounds about right. They were that good. She's that good. Rachel would be The Monkees.

Since Zenyatta failed to travel, wouldn't they be more like an early Springsteen playing local clubs up and down the Jersey Shore? Not a bad act, but hardly world wide one for the ages.

[exactatom]

Do you honestly believe that Zenyatta would've defeated Ghostzapper, especially with the way that '04 Classic race played out? (Soft fractions, totally favoured GZ.) Seems essentially impossible.

Ghostzapper ran a minus 3 Ragozin that yuear inthe Classic and one of the highest Beyer speed ratings ever. How could Zenyatta have beat him that day?

I started this out as an Azeri vs. Zenyatta aregument, but find it ironic that Ghostzapper came up. Last month a filly out of Azeri by Ghostzapper was sold on the first ngiht of the sale. I beleive this is the first horse conceived by two horses that both competed in the BC Classic.

[ronsmac]

Azeri was very good, Zenyatta is legendary.

[tucker6]

Zenyatta is legendary.
Why??

[Dahoss9698]

Why??

You've obviously never seen her dance.

[tucker6]

You've obviously never seen her dance.
You're right. What was I thinking Hoss. I have short term memory loss syndrome. On that note, I believe it's time to make myself a drink. :D

[eastie]

Since Zenyatta failed to travel, wouldn't they be more like an early Springsteen playing local clubs up and down the Jersey Shore? Not a bad act, but hardly world wide one for the ages.


That all changes on Novermber 6th, when the naysayers become believers. Plus it's not like I said she was the Stones or the Dead Or Zeppelin, only the Beatles, who kind of retired on top, like Zenyatta will.

[Charlie D]

That all changes on Novermber 6th, when the naysayers become believers. Plus it's not like I said she was the Stones or the Dead Or Zeppelin, only the Beatles, who kind of retired on top, like Zenyatta will.


Why would the naysayers become believers on Nov 6th?? Zen is not running against animals that are much better than last year is she??

[bks]

the little guy wrote:
Einstein was a really neat horse, but nobody that knows ANYTHING about racing history would EVER confuse him for anything other than a routinely talented horse. To use him to put Zenyatta into the context of greatness is, seriously, laughable....and shows that person to be severely ( and this is being kind ) lacking in any kind of historical perspective.

I think it's pretty evident Zenyatta's winning the Classic is not going to make up for the feeling here that she needed to shine during a hard campaign to truly be considered a top horse.

You don't want to give her credit toward greatness for beating solid GI type horses like Einstein, Richard's Kid, Life is Sweet and Ginger Punch on their preferred surfaces, because those horses aren't great. But who is saying they're great? They're part of a broad canvas of achievement over three seasons that makes the argument for her.

I think most will agree there are currently no great handicap horses in training. If she beats the Classic field, the complaints will linger that she wasn't campaigned aggressively enough against what is out there. It's understandable to a degree. Yet if she were to win the Classic again at 1 1/4, giving her wins on two surfaces in the only two meetings against males, added to 17 consecutive G1 and G2 races without a single loss, I think you're on a really thin branch if you want to claim she's not an all-time great mare simply because you think she didn't run fast enough in any of those wins.

Even great horses get beaten by inferior ones sometimes. Zenyatta has had enough exposure to good horses and bad situations in 17 graded stakes races to lose a couple of them. The fact that she hasn't, and the fact that winning the race is the goal, and the very plain appearance of having not seen her maxed out all suggest there's much more there in terms of ability than what the final times indicate.

[FenceBored]

I think it's pretty evident Zenyatta's winning the Classic is not going to make up for the feeling here that she needed to shine during a hard campaign to truly be considered a top horse.

You don't want to give her credit toward greatness for beating solid GI type horses like Einstein, Richard's Kid, Life is Sweet and Ginger Punch on their preferred surfaces, because those horses aren't great. But who is saying they're great? They're part of a broad canvas of achievement over three seasons that makes the argument for her.

I think most will agree there are currently no great handicap horses in training. If she beats the Classic field, the complaints will linger that she wasn't campaigned aggressively enough against what is out there. It's understandable to a degree. Yet if she were to win the Classic again at 1 1/4, giving her wins on two surfaces in the only two meetings against males, added to 17 consecutive G1 and G2 races without a single loss, I think you're on a really thin branch if you want to claim she's not an all-time great mare simply because you think she didn't run fast enough in any of those wins.

Even great horses get beaten by inferior ones sometimes. Zenyatta has had enough exposure to good horses and bad situations in 17 graded stakes races to lose a couple of them. The fact that she hasn't, and the fact that winning the race is the goal, and the very plain appearance of having not seen her maxed out all suggest there's much more there in terms of ability than what the final times indicate.

Or, not.

[OntheRail]

Azeri was very good, Zenyatta is legendary.
Yes... right next to Pepper's Pride.

[PaceAdvantage]

The fact that she hasn't, and the fact that winning the race is the goal, and the very plain appearance of having not seen her maxed out all suggest there's much more there in terms of ability than what the final times indicate.Just curious...what would "maxed out" have to look like in order for you to grant that title?

Zenyatta has been life or death this year in a number of her races...

Just curious...

[Tom]

Maxed out =Rachel's Woodward. Running all the way, turning back challenge after challenge.

Zenyatta has close finishes, but does very little for the first half or better of the races. Like the Harlem Globetrotters, never pushed hard, just winning.

[bks]

Just curious...what would "maxed out" have to look like in order for you to grant that title?

Zenyatta has been life or death this year in a number of her races...

Tom basically hit on it. It's true she wins a lot of races quite narrowly, due to the way she's handled. I think most people accept that she's just not asked to run until the very end of races. There's obviously a point of diminishing returns to "saving" her for the final 3/8's, meaning she can only go so fast in those last furlongs. At 9f, having her go 1:14 to the 3/4s may produce a 35.1 final 3/8's, but going 1:17 to the 3/4s is obviously not going to produce a 32.1 final 3/8's. Somewhere, there is an "optimal" pace for her that will still allow her to finish as fast as she is capable.

I think we've already seen the best she can finish, in terms of time. She's not going to run much faster to finish a race than she has already. But I think she can cruise the first mile at a stronger clip than she's been asked to and still deliver that punch. That's what makes the Classic so fascinating. If they go 1:10 flat will she be 15-18 lengths back at that point? Or will Smith have her more like 5-8 lengths back and risk compromising her kick?

[Dahoss9698]

Based on this, can a closer ever be "maxed out"? Or is this exclusive to only Zenyatta?

[Cardus]

Based on this, can a closer ever be "maxed out"? Or is this exclusive to only Zenyatta?

To the second question, yes.

There is a lot of "exclusivity" reserved for Zenyatta.

Why would this aspect be any different?

[Spalding No!]

That's what makes the Classic so fascinating. If they go 1:10 flat will she be 15-18 lengths back at that point? Or will Smith have her more like 5-8 lengths back and risk compromising her kick?

See the 2008 Vanity to see how Smith and Zenyatta handle a rapid pace.

Shirreffs pointed that race out as one that impressed him and worried him at the same time.

Apparently a sub-:46 half is detrimental to a one-run closer.

[eastie]

Yes... right next to Pepper's Pride.


how many grade ones in a row has the queen won ? ya mook ya. stick peppers pride up you arse. take a long walk off a short pier while you're at it

[cj]

See the 2008 Vanity to see how Smith and Zenyatta handle a rapid pace.

Shirreffs pointed that race out as one that impressed him and worried him at the same time.

Apparently a sub-:46 half is detrimental to a one-run closer.

That is a big reason I think the dirt and the pace will be a problem.

[bks]

I agree you can't like the way she ran in the 2008 Vanity, but can we be sure it was the pace that caused it? Zenyatta was way off of it, and that race was not one of Mike Smith's proudest moments.

I recall she faced a pretty hot pace in the Milady in 2009, and had to check after starting her run against Life is Sweet, and she still won in the end wrapped up.


Originally Posted by Dahoss9698
Based on this, can a closer ever be "maxed out"? Or is this exclusive to only Zenyatta?


Sure they can. You often see horses make well-timed moves to get up in a close finish, and then get passed after the wire by several horses. Or, they make a move to gain a lead by a length in the stretch, and then win by a margin of a neck or head.

[Dahoss9698]

Sure they can. You often see horses make well-timed moves to get up in a close finish, and then get passed after the wire by several horses. Or, they make a move to gain a lead by a length in the stretch, and then win by a margin of a neck or head.

Maybe it's just me, but this doesn't make a lot of sense. Essentially, by your definition, the last moving horse can never be "maxed out" unless they are passed in the gallop out, or move prematurely?

Concern was a deep closer. You can't tell me he wasn't "maxed out" in the '94 Classic and he wasn't passed in the gallop out and he didn't move too early.

[bks]

Essentially, by your definition, the last moving horse can never be "maxed out" unless they are passed in the gallop out, or move prematurely?

My position doesn't entail that, no. There may be other ways to infer a horse has reached its bottom besides its losing ground while being urged in the race's final stages, or during the gallop-out.

I'm not the sort of person who can pick up on smaller cues, like some might be able to.

[Dahoss9698]

My position doesn't entail that, no. There may be other ways to infer a horse has reached its bottom besides its losing ground while being urged in the race's final stages, or during the gallop-out.

I'm not the sort of person who can pick up on smaller cues, like some might be able to.

I guess I'm confused as to what your position is. The two examples you provided of a closer being maxed out were a horse being passed on the gallop out, or essentially moving too early.

So, what about a horse closer that had neither of those things happen? The examples are endless, like Concern in the Classic or Blame in the Whitney this year.

Hard for me to believe Zenyatta wasn't "maxed out" in the Hirsch in 2009.

[bks]

I just went back and looked at the 1994 Classic again. Great run by Concern. Why do you think he was at his bottom? If they had gone another 1/16, don't you think he could have held everyone off?

I think the confusion is coming from the "maxed out" term. You seem to be understanding maxed out as "trying as hard as the horse can try at the end of a race". In that sense, sure, Zenyatta, was maxed in the 2009 Hirsch, and so was Concern in the Classic. I mean "maxed out" in the sense of Real Quiet in the Belmont, where the horse has no more to give at the end.

[Dahoss9698]

I just went back and looked at the 1994 Classic again. Great run by Concern. Why do you think he was at his bottom? If they had gone another 1/16, don't you think he could have held everyone off?

I think the confusion is coming from the "maxed out" term. You seem to be understanding maxed out as "trying as hard as the horse can try at the end of a race". In that sense, sure, Zenyatta, was maxed in the 2009 Hirsch, and so was Concern in the Classic. I mean "maxed out" in the sense of Real Quiet in the Belmont, where the horse has no more to give at the end.

Yeah, there is definitely confusion in what we determine to be maxed out. The Real Quiet example is interesting though. Real Quiet moved too early, and was caught late because of this. I guess it gets back to my question of how can the last moving horse ever be maxed out? Even though they may be full out, no one is going to come and get them because they made the last move.

I guess I think about Holy Bull holding off Concern in the '94 Travers. He was no doubt maxed out, but it feels like they could have gone around again and he wasn't going to let Concern by him.

[bks]

What a call by Durkin in that Travers.

I agree Concern would never have gone by. Holy Bull had more to give if necessary. Absolutely astounding that he could responded the way he did near the 1/16 pole, when he looked hopelessly beat.

On the other hand, Coronado's Quest would have gotten beat if the 1998 Travers went another 10 yards in my opinion. He was at his bottom.

Given the style similarity, Concern is actually a good horse to raise in the context of Zenyatta. When he was in his prime, would you say they had comparable ability?

[PaceAdvantage]

Maxed out =Rachel's Woodward. Running all the way, turning back challenge after challenge.

Zenyatta has close finishes, but does very little for the first half or better of the races. Like the Harlem Globetrotters, never pushed hard, just winning.So even though she's been life and death to get up a few times this year, she's never been maxed out or pushed hard?

Just because she doesn't run hard (fast) at the beginning?

Does that mean a front-runner who runs hard (fast) at the beginning but just hangs on late while not running hard (slow) isn't maxed out?

Which would be odd since you cited Rachel's Woodward (a case of fast early / not so fast late) as a case where a horse was maxed out.

Sign me,

Confused.

[Stillriledup]

So even though she's been life and death to get up a few times this year, she's never been maxed out or pushed hard?

Just because she doesn't run hard (fast) at the beginning?

Does that mean a front-runner who runs hard (fast) at the beginning but just hangs on late while not running hard (slow) isn't maxed out?

Which would be odd since you cited Rachel's Woodward (a case of fast early / not so fast late) as a case where a horse was maxed out.

Sign me,

Confused.


Rachel's Woodward maxed her out as evidenced by her downhill decline after that race. Z on the other hand, kept chugging along.

Signed,
Did Z win HOY, i forgot to check.

[RXB]

Way to needlessly pull out a thread that is five months dead. Hopefully the mods will lock it.

[098poi]

Way to needlessly pull out a thread that is five months dead. Hopefully the mods will lock it.

If there is a God.

[v j stauffer]

I can only imagine it was revived because I never gave my opinion:) . Having called both numerous times I will say this. Zenyatta could possibly be the greatest racemare ever. She never HAD to have race shape to run down even fresh talented opponents. Without it though she would have NEVER caught Azeri. Think of what Zenny had to do to run down St. Trinians and Switch. Both terrific mares. Neither in the same statosphere as Azeri. Undoubtedly two of the all time greats. Fast contested pace "here comes Zenny" Uncontested 50- half mile. Zenny would never have seen where The Big A went.

[Spalding No!]

I can only imagine it was revived because I never gave my opinion:) . Having called both numerous times I will say this. Zenyatta could possibly be the greatest racemare ever. She never HAD to have race shape to run down even fresh talented opponents. Without it though she would have NEVER caught Azeri. Think of what Zenny had to do to run down St. Trinians and Switch. Both terrific mares. Neither in the same statosphere as Azeri. Undoubtedly two of the all time greats. Fast contested pace "here comes Zenny" Uncontested 50- half mile. Zenny would never have seen where The Big A went.

Not only does his post contradict itself in the span of two sentences, but it also presumes that Zenyatta and Azeri are the two greatest racemares of all-time.

[v j stauffer]

Not only does his post contradict itself in the span of two sentences, but it also presumes that Zenyatta and Azeri are the two greatest racemares of all-time.

Ok Ben Bradley. I said two "of". The rest was my way of comparing the two. The thread was to debate two great mares. Not to do a book report on my post.:bang:

[Nikki1997]

Not only does his post contradict itself in the span of two sentences, but it also presumes that Zenyatta and Azeri are the two greatest racemares of all-time.

If you don't think so, fine. It's called an opinion. You ever heard of that?

People express their opinion on many things on a daily basis.

You disagree? Wonderful. You are entitled to that.

You don't think Z and Azeri should be be in that upper echelon of racing? Fine.

I think they are two of the finest mares that have come down the pike.

My opinion and I don't give a flying c--p on who agrees or disagrees with me.

[v j stauffer]

If you don't think so, fine. It's called an opinion. You ever heard of that?

People express their opinion on many things on a daily basis.

You disagree? Wonderful. You are entitled to that.

You don't think Z and Azeri should be be in that upper echelon of racing? Fine.

I think they are two of the finest mares that have come down the pike.

My opinion and I don't give a flying c--p on who agrees or disagrees with me.

Sharp post.

[the little guy]

Ok Ben Bradley. I said two "of". The rest was my way of comparing the two. The thread was to debate two great mares. Not to do a book report on my post.:bang:


You're only clever if you spell the guy's name right.

[Spalding No!]

Ok Ben Bradley. I said two "of". The rest was my way of comparing the two. The thread was to debate two great mares. Not to do a book report on my post.:bang:

In other words, your opinion is the final word.

Sorry to have interrupted your Raging Stallions movie hour. I guess discussing "dueling mares" pales in comparison. Who's Ben doing now?

[v j stauffer]

You're only clever if you spell the guy's name right.

Which did I get wrong? B E N or B R A D L E Y?:)

[Spalding No!]

If you don't think so, fine. It's called an opinion. You ever heard of that?

No. But I've heard of an a55hole.

Do you own a mirror?

People express their opinion on many things on a daily basis.

Some people do it twice a day. Once in the morning. The other after a hearty meal.

You disagree? Wonderful. You are entitled to that.

So why the dressing down?

You don't think Z and Azeri should be be in that upper echelon of racing? Fine.

Instead of putting words in my mouth, why don't you try and remove the two letters, B and S, out of yours?

I think they are two of the finest mares that have come down the pike.

We would have also accepted "come down the pipe", which would have been more fitting with this post thematically.

My opinion and I don't give a flying c--p on who agrees or disagrees with me.

We'll see if it sticks.

[Stillriledup]

Way to needlessly pull out a thread that is five months dead. Hopefully the mods will lock it.

Someone took a shot at Z in another post. I thought we were done with this. I haven't talked about Z in quite a while and i expected that the losers (people who wanted Z to NOT win HOY) would just be men and let it go. They won't let it go, here's my response.

[v j stauffer]

It's quite pathetic to admit this. I look at about 5 forums. I know I know I need a life.

There are more rude, angry, hateful people on this than the other 4 combined times 10.

What gives?

[cj]

It's quite pathetic to admit this. I look at about 5 forums. I know I know I need a life.

There are more rude, angry, hateful people on this than the other 4 combined times 10.

What gives?

I think you are probably going overboard, but even if not, it could be because there are 100 times more people here than the other 4 combined.

[cj]

Way to needlessly pull out a thread that is five months dead. Hopefully the mods will lock it.

Stillneverright is the king of that. Had I seen it earlier, I would have, but too much funny stuff now.

[Stillriledup]

It's quite pathetic to admit this. I look at about 5 forums. I know I know I need a life.

There are more rude, angry, hateful people on this than the other 4 combined times 10.

What gives?

Its simple. The people in charge don't care and most times, they're right in there tossing the insults and hate. This is a great place to post if you want to just attack someone for no real reason.

[v j stauffer]

I think you are probably going overboard, but even if not, it could be because there are 100 times more people here than the other 4 combined.

In this game it always seems to come down to the numbers.

[the little guy]

Which did I get wrong? B E N or B R A D L E Y?:)


Unless you meant the slave that learned to read, I will assume the last name.

By the way, just curious, will you be going to message boards to help with your steward's rulings in a similar fashion to how you asked for racecalling help?

[cj]

Its simple. The people in charge don't care and most times, they're right in there tossing the insults and hate. This is a great place to post if you want to just attack someone for no real reason.

There is only one person in charge, PA. Please direct me via link to his last three insults or hate laced posts.

[v j stauffer]

Unless you meant the slave that learned to read, I will assume the last name.

By the way, just curious, will you be going to message boards to help with your steward's rulings in a similar fashion to how you asked for racecalling help?

I was talking about the editor guy from All The President's Men.

As for your question. The answer is no.

[the little guy]

I was talking about the editor guy from All The President's Men.

As for your question. The answer is no.


I know who you were talking about....which is why I knew you spelled his name wrong. Don't worry, it won't be your last bad call.

[PaceAdvantage]

Its simple. The people in charge don't care and most times, they're right in there tossing the insults and hate. This is a great place to post if you want to just attack someone for no real reason.If you believe this nonsense, and you are still posting here, I must assume you also come here to attack people for no real reason? Or do you simply attack the long dead posts?

Otherwise, why would you still come here?

[v j stauffer]

I know who you were talking about....which is why I knew you spelled his name wrong. Don't worry, it won't be your last bad call.

See what I mean.

[cj]

See what I mean.

You had a sense of humor before becoming a steward. You honestly can't laugh at that? You think you'll never make a bad call? Come on Francis, lighten up.

[Stillriledup]

If you believe this nonsense, and you are still posting here, I must assume you also come here to attack people for no real reason? Or do you simply attack the long dead posts?

Otherwise, why would you still come here?

I find this to be a great message board with a lot of amazingly smart posters. I don't attack anyone, never have. If you've been paying attention, i take a lot of crap here for no reason. I'll bump a post and get ridiculed by you and your right hand men, someone bumped a 6 year old post the other day and nobody said anything. I bump a 6 month post and get beaten to a bloody pulp. If you dont want old posts bumped, why not lock them all? I mean, if the post is unlocked, i have to assume its fair game to respond to.

[v j stauffer]

You had a sense of humor before becoming a steward. You honestly can't laugh at that? You think you'll never make a bad call? Come on Francis, lighten up.

Touche!

[PaceAdvantage]

I find this to be a great message board with a lot of amazingly smart posters. I don't attack anyone, never have. If you've been paying attention, i take a lot of crap here for no reason. I'll bump a post and get ridiculed by you and your right hand men, someone bumped a 6 year old post the other day and nobody said anything. I bump a 6 month post and get beaten to a bloody pulp. If you dont want old posts bumped, why not lock them all? I mean, if the post is unlocked, i have to assume its fair game to respond to.With your choice of rhetoric, a response is simply a waste of time. "Beaten to a bloody pulp..." "Ridiculed" "Right hand men"

Where do they come up with this garbage?

Dude, if it's really that bad, I have three words of advice: demand a refund.

[Stillriledup]

With your choice of rhetoric, a response is simply a waste of time. "Beaten to a bloody pulp..." "Ridiculed" "Right hand men"

Where do they come up with this garbage?

Dude, if it's really that bad, I have three words of advice: demand a refund.

Its not that bad. In fact, its all good.