BC Launches Zenyatta-Focused Website. Will She be Overbet in the Classic? [Archive] - Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com

andymays

10-12-2010, 12:16 PM

andymays

10-12-2010, 12:17 PM

http://www.zenyatta2010.com/

Excerpt:

WITH EVERY GALLOP, HER LEGEND GROWS. WITH EVERY RACE, SHE STAYS PERFECT. AND WITH EVERY INCREDIBLE VICTORY, SHE TRANSCENDS THE SPORT OF RACING.

BluegrassProf

10-12-2010, 12:41 PM

WITH EVERY GALLOP, HER LEGEND GROWS.:D That's for damned sure...

DJofSD

10-12-2010, 12:45 PM

I hope it doesn't turn into a Cigar/Hollywood Gold Cup fiasco.

FenceBored

10-12-2010, 12:50 PM

You know, it's things like this that make life difficult for parodists.

I mean, that thing I posted last week (http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showpost.php?p=983537&postcount=76) is going to be considered tame by Nov. 5th, much less the 7th should she win, sorry I mean of course, when she's won.

mountainman

10-12-2010, 01:27 PM

http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/59317/bc-launches-zenyatta-focused-website

Excerpt:

“We wanted to create an environment where people could interactively engage and share in the Zenyatta phenomenon.”

Yes, that's what Zenyatta does, promotes a spirit of sharing.

Sarcasm aside, I wonder which posters would actually go fist city over the topic of her legacy? Any thoughts? Amongst the sort of informed fans that frequent this site, passions run so high, that the horse herself seems secondary to the sniping she incites.

DJofSD

10-12-2010, 01:36 PM

Zen will likely be t'bred racing's last hurrah.

andymays

10-12-2010, 01:36 PM

Nobody seems interested in how overbet she will be.

Does anyone think we might see some Mega Bridge Jumping on Z in the Classic?

DJofSD

10-12-2010, 01:43 PM

Nobody seems interested in how overbet she will be.

Does anyone think we might see some Mega Bridge Jumping on Z in the Classic?
I hope so.....

andymays

10-12-2010, 01:46 PM

I hope so.....

I agree.

Pine Tree Lane

10-12-2010, 01:51 PM

When she retires you guys are going to have to find new material.

andymays

10-12-2010, 02:03 PM

When she retires you guys are going to have to find new material.

Will she be overbet? What is your opinion?

Most gamblers/Horseplayers will look at this as an opportunity. Fans are a different deal.

W2G

10-12-2010, 02:21 PM

Steve Byk was actually talking about $2 souvenir tickets on Zenyatta driving her odds down. Maybe I'm missing something but I just don't get the sense that that kind of thing is going to happen. Whatever the outcome of the Classic, this seems like a private party. Will we eventually see any promos on TV or has ESPN given up on horse racing?

thaskalos

10-12-2010, 02:23 PM

Will she be overbet? What is your opinion?

Most gamblers/Horseplayers will look at this as an opportunity. Fans are a different deal. What is the definition of "overbet" in this race?

IMO, given the strength of the field, and the speculation about Zenyatta's ability on the dirt...she should not go off at odds less than 7/2.

andymays

10-12-2010, 02:25 PM

What is the definition of "overbet" in this race?

IMO, given the strength of the field, and the speculation about Zenyatta's ability on the dirt...she should not go off at odds less than 7/2.
http://sports.espn.go.com/sports/horse/columns/story?columnist=plonk_jeremy&id=5674599

Excerpt:

it's still probably safe to say she'll be below the 2-1 odds barometer, whether or not that's considered fair value in your estimation.

Tom

10-12-2010, 02:27 PM

When she retires you guys are going to have to find new material.

As long as one synthetic tracks exists, there will be fodder.:D

Phantombridgejumpe

10-12-2010, 02:30 PM

There will be no bridgejumping, under the assumption that there will be at least 9 others running.

Is 9-5 overbet? Probably a bit, however, I think she deserves to be the favorite and in my mind there isn't a real clear 2nd choice.

I went with Lookin' at Lucky as the 2nd choice when I did a ML, but that wasn't an easy choice for me.

Pine Tree Lane

10-12-2010, 02:34 PM

Will she be overbet? What is your opinion?

Most gamblers/Horseplayers will look at this as an opportunity. Fans are a different deal.

I thought she'd be overbet at Santa Anita last year since it was on her home track and such. At the end of the day I don't know if 5-2 was a value or not.

I just don't see her being much lower than 9-5. I would also think that would probably be a square price (which takes into account the non believers who would play against her and offset that vs. dumb money.) I really think there are horses coming up to the race that are attractive to seaoned players. Quality Road, Blame and Lookin at Lucky will all take money and you can make a case that they are better than anything she faced last year. If that is the case at 9-5 she will be an underlay.

depalma113

10-12-2010, 02:35 PM

Nobody seems interested in how overbet she will be.

Does anyone think we might see some Mega Bridge Jumping on Z in the Classic?

She will be even money or lower.

If Bernardini can go into the race as an even money favorite in a 13 horse field, the defending champion with a 19-0 record is certainly going to be that low against what this field is shaping up to be.

In fact, I doubt any other horse will be below 5-1.

Pick6

10-12-2010, 02:36 PM

One needs to establish fair value before determining if she is "overbet". I have not seen anyone projecting her % chances as of yet, although it is quite early.

andymays

10-12-2010, 02:51 PM

I think we're gonna see some crazy stuff when it comes to the betting pools.

When have people been so emotionally invested in a horse?

ArlJim78

10-12-2010, 02:53 PM

She will be somewhat overbet, so what is the play, who is the key? If you're thinking that with her off the board the tote will light up I think you're dreaming.

depalma113

10-12-2010, 02:59 PM

She will be somewhat overbet, so what is the play, who is the key? If you're thinking that with her off the board the tote will light up I think you're dreaming.

If she is off the board, that tote will light up.

jonnielu

10-12-2010, 03:02 PM

Nobody seems interested in how overbet she will be.

Does anyone think we might see some Mega Bridge Jumping on Z in the Classic?

There probably won't be any bridgejumping, although there is a good selection of bridges closeby. But, there may be a few serious injuries in the last minute stampede, should the legions of detractors wait to see her get down to 1/1 so that they know it's a sure thing. Even if the survivors take her down to 1/5, you can't overbet a sure thing.

jdl

Pick6

10-12-2010, 03:04 PM

Smarty Jones was the worst overbet I can recall, and seemed like giving money away. That I had Birdstone probably goes into my reasoning a bit.

andymays

10-12-2010, 03:07 PM

There probably won't be any bridgejumping, although there is a good selection of bridges closeby. But, there may be a few serious injuries in the last minute stampede, should the legions of detractors wait to see her get down to 1/1 so that they know it's a sure thing. Even if the survivors take her down to 1/5, you can't overbet a sure thing.

jdl

Thanks for making my point. 1/5 is not overbet? :eek: Sure thing? :rolleyes:

thaskalos

10-12-2010, 03:12 PM

Smarty Jones was the worst overbet I can recall, and seemed like giving money away. That I had Birdstone probably goes into my reasoning a bit.There are a lot more questions about Zenyatta than there were about Smarty Jones. This race does not have the makings for a large overbet.

Tom

10-12-2010, 03:12 PM

One needs to establish fair value before determining if she is "overbet". I have not seen anyone projecting her % chances as of yet, although it is quite early.

Ya think?

I'm not worrying about her odds until about 20 minutes to post time.
Maybe 10, just to see if Quality Road goes bonkers again. :D

ArlJim78

10-12-2010, 03:15 PM

If she is off the board, that tote will light up.
What do you envision the payoffs to be if it comes in
Looking At Lucky / Blame / Quality Road
You think the board will light up? like nobody is even going to imagine a ticket with Zenyatta off?

thaskalos

10-12-2010, 03:18 PM

Dahoss9698

10-12-2010, 03:31 PM

Smarty Jones was the worst overbet I can recall, and seemed like giving money away. That I had Birdstone probably goes into my reasoning a bit.

Scoreboard

Pre race opinions- 0

Redboards- 1

Pick6

10-12-2010, 03:55 PM

Scoreboard

Pre race opinions- 0

Redboards- 1
A reason you don't use search feature to clear that up? And you will have your chance with the BC contest.

andymays

10-12-2010, 04:03 PM

Liza G. Fly sings “Zenyatta” to Lady Z in Person | ZENYATTA

http://www.zenyatta.com/media/liza-g-fly-sings-zenyatta-to-lady-z-in-person?ref=nf

FenceBored

10-12-2010, 04:20 PM

Liza G. Fly sings “Zenyatta” to Lady Z in Person | ZENYATTA

http://www.zenyatta.com/media/liza-g-fly-sings-zenyatta-to-lady-z-in-person?ref=nf

:eek: Are they trying to kill the poor girl?

FenceBored

10-12-2010, 04:22 PM

A reason you don't use search feature to clear that up? And you will have your chance with the BC contest.

How can he use the search feature to clear up that you didn't call Birdstone before the 2004 Belmont when you didn't start posting as Pick6 until March of 2010?

carlonr

10-12-2010, 04:37 PM

10-12-2010, 04:38 PM

Wasn't I ridiculed when I suggested that Zenyatta had something to do with the advance sales being up this year. Just another example that the general consensous of many regualar posters on this board may not always be based on reality.

Could you find that please? I don't recall you being ridiculed for anything like that, but I could be wrong.

PaceAdvantage

10-12-2010, 04:42 PM

Zen will likely be t'bred racing's last hurrah.Oh, I doubt that...

PaceAdvantage

10-12-2010, 04:43 PM

When she retires you guys are going to have to find new material.We've been doing it for over 10 years...why should her retirement have any impact? :lol:

PaceAdvantage

10-12-2010, 04:44 PM

Does anyone think we might see some Mega Bridge Jumping on Z in the Classic?No way...there are still too many question marks involved with her, and the field should be deep enough, especially if some of the better Euros decide to run.

PaceAdvantage

10-12-2010, 04:45 PM

She will be even money or lower.

If Bernardini can go into the race as an even money favorite in a 13 horse field, the defending champion with a 19-0 record is certainly going to be that low against what this field is shaping up to be.

In fact, I doubt any other horse will be below 5-1.Even money or lower would be a pretty shocking scenario.

9-5 or 2-1...that's the price I see. Maybe 8-5, but that would be surprising to me if she's that low.

andymays

10-12-2010, 04:47 PM

Wasn't I ridiculed when I suggested that Zenyatta had something to do with the advance sales being up this year. Just another example that the general consensous of many regualar posters on this board may not always be based on reality.

Why are you always looking for reparations? Move on. The Victim stuff is old.

Do you think she will be overbet? What's her price at post time?

FenceBored

10-12-2010, 05:13 PM

Could you find that please? I don't recall you being ridiculed for anything like that, but I could be wrong.

The exchange he's thinking of takes place at the end of this short thread:

Oh, Gee, Who'da Thunk It? BC Tix Sales Well Ahead of Last Year (http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=75049)

FenceBored

10-12-2010, 05:18 PM

Wasn't I ridiculed when I suggested that Zenyatta had something to do with the advance sales being up this year. Just another example that the general consensous of many regualar posters on this board may not always be based on reality.

Pointing out that every BC at Churchill Downs has had more people in attendance than Santa Anita did on Saturday last year now qualifies as ridiculing you?

BC at CD
1988 71,237
1991 66,204
1994 71,671
1998 80,452
2000 76,043
2006 75,132

The lowest figure is over 7k higher than the 58,845 Santa Anita had last year. The average for CD Breeder's Cups (73,457) is over 14.5k higher. Based on these facts, who wouldn't expect sales to be higher than last year.

That's the reality.

gm10

10-12-2010, 05:23 PM

http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/59317/bc-launches-zenyatta-focused-website

Excerpt:

“She is the star of the show,” said Peter Rotondo, vice president of media and entertainment for the Breeders’ Cup, in a release. “We wanted to create an environment where people could interactively engage and share in the Zenyatta phenomenon and where we could help educate a broader audience that may be new to Zenyatta, working with her team to provide some behind the scenes access.”

In order to be able to answer your question, we will first need an objective estimate of her chances of winning.

gm10

10-12-2010, 05:26 PM

Pointing out that every BC at Churchill Downs has had more people in attendance than Santa Anita did on Saturday last year now qualifies as ridiculing you?

BC at CD
1988 71,237
1991 66,204
1994 71,671
1998 80,452
2000 76,043
2006 75,132

The lowest figure is over 7k higher than the 58,845 Santa Anita had last year. The average for CD Breeder's Cups (73,457) is over 14.5k higher. Based on these facts, who wouldn't expect sales to be higher than last year.

That's the reality.

Isn't the Churchill Downs grandstand capacity twice as large as the Santa Anita one? I was at Santa Anita last year, it was a full house.

FenceBored

10-12-2010, 05:31 PM

In order to be able to answer your question, we will first need an objective estimate of her chances of winning.

She's a 100% lock.

gm10

10-12-2010, 05:34 PM

She's a 100% lock.

then she's underbet

FenceBored

10-12-2010, 05:34 PM

Isn't the Churchill Downs grandstand capacity twice as large as the Santa Anita one? I was at Santa Anita last year, it was a full house.

I don't know about twice as large. They don't open the infield for BC. And Santa Anita hosted 69,155 for the BC in 1986, so last year wasn't even the most SA has had for the BC on a Saturday.

tbwinner

10-12-2010, 05:38 PM

Bet ALL / ALL in a $1 exacta. It'll be a $182 lottery ticket.

gm10

10-12-2010, 05:41 PM

I don't know about twice as large. They don't open the infield for BC. And Santa Anita hosted 69,155 for the BC in 1986, so last year wasn't even the most SA has had for the BC on a Saturday.

I'm sure rules and regulations regarding max capacity have changed over the years

anyway, as far as I know, the CD grandstand can sit twice as many people, so it is probably quite a bit bigger, and as such probably quite normal to have bigger crowds there on the big days

depalma113

10-12-2010, 06:32 PM

What do you envision the payoffs to be if it comes in
Looking At Lucky / Blame / Quality Road
You think the board will light up? like nobody is even going to imagine a ticket with Zenyatta off?

The last time a favorite didn't finish first or second, the exacta was $70 and that was Curlin at 4-1 over 8-1 Hard Spun in a nine horse field. Other than that, when the favorite isn't in the top two, you are looking at a minimum $140 exacta.

Sorry, but this is the Breeders Cup and if she is off the board, the tote will be huge.

Pick6

10-12-2010, 06:41 PM

How can he use the search feature to clear up that you didn't call Birdstone before the 2004 Belmont when you didn't start posting as Pick6 until March of 2010?
If that were the case he should have enough sense not to post this.

But he is most likely referring to me not citing pre-race predictions, which I indeed have posted.

10-12-2010, 06:43 PM

I'm sure rules and regulations regarding max capacity have changed over the years

anyway, as far as I know, the CD grandstand can sit twice as many people, so it is probably quite a bit bigger, and as such probably quite normal to have bigger crowds there on the big days

Rules? They sell what they can fill. SA was not sold out, so a bigger grandstand wasn't helping.

Pick6

10-12-2010, 07:28 PM

FenceBored

10-12-2010, 08:14 PM

If that were the case he should have enough sense not to post this.

But he is most likely referring to me not citing pre-race predictions, which I indeed have posted.

You redboard, and he shouldn't rib you about it. Got it. :ThmbUp:

GatetoWire

10-12-2010, 10:12 PM

She's a 100% lock.

Can someone please help me out with this?
I just don't understand the lack of objectivity here.

I love Zenyatta!!!! What she has done is remarkable.....she will go down as one of the greatest of all time but as a handicapper I cannot understand how anyone can look at what she is about to tackle and think she is a 100% lock.

She is going to
1. ship to CD
2. run on dirt for only the 3rd time in her life (1st at CD)
3. run on dirt for the 1st time at 10f
3. run on dirt for the 1st time against real competition
4. run on dirt for the first time vs Males
5. face at least 4 top class US based horses who are battle tested and all appear to be coming into the Classic in top form.

As much as my heart would love to see her dominate.....the Handicapper in me realizes that this is by far the greatest challenge she has ever faced.

Plus I have to wonder if these cupcake races she has been winning against Fillies and Mares in California are really going to get her ready to beat Lookin at Lucky, Blame, QR and Haynesfield????

Let's be honest...last year she had a huge advantage because the ProRide surface eliminated all of the top dirt runners. That won't be the case this year.

That is a lot to overcome to be a 100% lock
She is absolutely going to fire but is it going to be enough to overcome all these hurdles and beat a field this deep?? She will run well on dirt but so will everyone else.

I think maybe she can win.....but not enough to make her a 5 star lock

bks

10-12-2010, 10:20 PM

Zenyatta will be lower than 2-1, but above 6/5. To me, that's overbet, but gun to my head I would pick her over the other contenders.

QR will almost certainly be second choice [5-2, 3-1 range]. LaL will be around 9/2-5-1, as will Blame. Haynesworth will be only other under 10-1.

I'm hoping for Crown of Thorns to be entered, and to go off at 18-1 or so.

Dahoss9698

10-12-2010, 10:31 PM

But he is most likely referring to me not citing pre-race predictions, which I indeed have posted.

No you haven't.

keithw84

10-13-2010, 12:27 AM

Can someone please help me out with this?
I just don't understand the lack of objectivity here.

I love Zenyatta!!!! What she has done is remarkable.....she will go down as one of the greatest of all time but as a handicapper I cannot understand how anyone can look at what she is about to tackle and think she is a 100% lock.

I believe the post about her being a 100% lock was sarcasm in response to the question of what her actual chances of winning are.

This isn't dice or poker where we could actually agree upon what the probabilities are... But I'm sure someone could say after the race that the order of finish was predestined and there was a 100% chance it would turn out that way.

jamey1977

10-13-2010, 02:22 AM

So Much crap can happen. These jocks will be doing everything to try to put the race in their favor. With a quick pace. That long Churchill stretch. The Mile and A Quarter is made for Zenyatta. The horses will come back. But, what if they don't? What if the jocks are so apt at causing a slow pace. That someone sneaks away and goes wire to wire by 9 lengths and Zenyatta tries to close the deal. But, comes up a little short? No one knows what will happen. It depends on Mike Smith and the trip Zenyatta gets. I always said a Mile and a Quarter was made for Zenyatta. We all saw her in that stretch at Last Years Breeders Cup. A train. A roaring train. Things can happen. But my scenario is Zenyatta zooming by Looking At Lucky or Haynesfield, Quality Road, if they run. So a Trifecta. Zenyatta with Looking At Lucky, Haynesfield, Quality Road with all. Should pay well. With all of the money. Can even do a reverse Trifecta, with those 3 with Zenyatta , second, to all. I was always afraid of someone sneaking away. But of course, I want Zenyatta to win. She has to win.

FenceBored

10-13-2010, 07:38 AM

I believe the post about her being a 100% lock was sarcasm in response to the question of what her actual chances of winning are.

This isn't dice or poker where we could actually agree upon what the probabilities are... But I'm sure someone could say after the race that the order of finish was predestined and there was a 100% chance it would turn out that way.

Oh no you don't. When she wins I deserve credit for saying she was a 100% lock.

ronsmac

10-13-2010, 10:21 AM

She appears to be one of the biggest locks in Breeders cup classic history. So I' d say no, she won't be overbet.

andymays

10-13-2010, 10:24 AM

She appears to be one of the biggest locks in Breeders cup classic history. So I' d say no, she won't be overbet.

You're kind of making my point and contradicting yourself. ;)

FenceBored

10-13-2010, 10:33 AM

Pine Tree Lane

10-13-2010, 10:55 AM

andymays

10-13-2010, 04:44 PM

Shirreffs Outlines Zenyatta's Training Plans

http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/59338/shirreffs-outlines-zenyattas-training-plans

Pick6

10-13-2010, 04:50 PM

You redboard, and he shouldn't rib you about it. Got it. :ThmbUp:
No, I indicated that my belief Birdstone was undervalued probably contributed to my belief that Smarty Jones was overvalued.

Pick6

10-13-2010, 04:52 PM

No you haven't.
Yes, in fact I did post pre-race predictions. You did not search well enough, obviously.

So now you can post "last word" or something equally meaningful.

Pick6

10-13-2010, 04:56 PM

Now then, what about the propriety of the first half of the thread title?

There is no Blame2010.com, no LookinatLucky2010.com, no QualityRoad2010.com. There's not even a Goldikova2010.com and she's going for her 3rd BC win hours before Zen is going for hers.

Should they be exhibiting this much favortism toward one participant in a two-day 14 race competition?
Maybe you should start one of these; nobody is stopping you. Check out GoDaddy, it won't cost you much. I'd enjoy observing the content you post.

Maybe then you will get some value on Z?

Dahoss9698

10-13-2010, 05:08 PM

Yes, in fact I did post pre-race predictions. You did not search well enough, obviously.

So now you can post "last word" or something equally meaningful.

No, to date you have yet to post a single pre race opinion on who you think will win or lose a specific race. Not one. You have however redboarded, obviously.

Thus, the scoreboard.

andymays

10-13-2010, 06:21 PM

VEITCH: Zenyatta's 20th, final and most crucial will be at Breeders' Cup - saratogian.com

http://www.saratogian.com/articles/2010/10/13/sports/doc4cb518020f42f343696126.txt

Excerpt:

The excitement and tension during the buildup to the $5 million Classic on Nov. 6 could be unprecedented in Breeders’ Cup history.

Provided everything goes as scheduled, the great Zenyatta will make her 20th and final career start on that night at famed Churchill Downs in Louisville.

The 6-year-old mare will attempt to win Horse of the Year honors, capture her second Classic victory and retire with a spotless record.

bisket

10-13-2010, 06:26 PM

this race could set up as the value play of the year for da bisket.wooohoooooo!!!!! da bisket is due.....

andymays

10-13-2010, 06:26 PM

this race could set up as the value play of the year for da bisket.wooohoooooo!!!!! da bisket is due.....

What value? There will be no value on Z.

bisket

10-13-2010, 06:30 PM

What value? There will be no value on Z.
she's the likely winner, but there's some good value available for the place and show. if zen's not up to it i'm gonna be sittin pretty.... even prettier than rich's kid :jump:

andymays

10-13-2010, 06:31 PM

she's the likely winner, but there's some good value available for the place and show. if zen's not up to it i'm gonna be sittin pretty.... even prettier than rich's kid :jump:

I'm only using her for fourth in the supers.

bisket

10-13-2010, 07:21 PM

I'm only using her for fourth in the supers.
andy she at least figures in the money even with the view that she's not what everyone thinks. honestly man, they're putting in dirt. times to start getting back to just enjoying the ponies racing around in circles, and analyze the race just like it is the featured allowance on thursday....

andymays

10-13-2010, 07:24 PM

andy she at least figures in the money even with the view that she's not what everyone thinks. honestly man, they're putting in dirt. times to start getting back to just enjoying the ponies racing around in circles, and analyze the race just like it is the featured allowance on thursday....

It's a totally different ballgame this year.

I can't see her winning but if she happens to win I'll be the first to stand up and applaud. If she's only beaten a few lengths I'll give her credit as well. At least she will be taking on grade 1 males on the dirt.

Charlie D

10-13-2010, 07:37 PM

Andy

Dirt has shown to be no problem
10 panels has shown to be no problem
Taking on males with decent ability has shown to be no problem
Running style has shown to be no problem

She is the horse THEY have to beat.

andymays

10-13-2010, 07:40 PM

Andy

Dirt has shown to be no problem
10 panels has shown to be no problem
taking on males with decent ability has shown to be no problem
running style has shown to be no problem

She is the horse THEY have to beat.

It's not at Santa Anita on Magic Pro Ride. Until she shows me that she can beat grade 1 males on dirt I'm very skeptical. Not just a little skeptical, very very skeptical. I'm not sure she would be lock in the filly and mare race this year let alone the Classic. She wasn't winning under wraps this year against the likes of Rinterval and Switch. If they were in the filly and mare race they would be double digit odds in that race. Their connections don't think they have the ability to contend there. Doesn't that tell you anything?

Charlie D

10-13-2010, 07:54 PM

Zenyatta's PP tells me SHE is the horse THEY have to beat. If it did not, i would not have stated so in the previous post.

andymays

10-13-2010, 07:55 PM

Zenyatta's PP tells me SHE is the horse THEY have to beat. If it did not, i would not have written it in the previous post.

OK Charlie D. I see something very very different. That's why they race and that's why we bet on them.

Charlie D

10-13-2010, 07:57 PM

Andy.Tell me what you see in her PP that i seem to be missing.

andymays

10-13-2010, 08:00 PM

Andy.Tell me what you see in her PP that i seem to be missing.

I don't believe that she can beat grade 1 males on a dirt surface. She hasn't been beating much and she hasn't been doing it easily. Maybe she wasn't in an all out drive but she wasn't under wraps either. On top of that she will be overbet. So from a handicapping standpoint and a betting standpoint she's a bet against in this years Classic all day every day for me. As I said if she wins I will be happy for her and her connections.

Charlie D

10-13-2010, 08:08 PM

I don't believe that she can beat grade 1 males on a dirt surface.

Why?? there is no evidence in her PP to come to this conclusion.

She hasn't been beating much and she hasn't been doing it easily.

She has been doing the same or similar to last year and won her last race easily enough from what i saw.

andymays

10-13-2010, 08:11 PM

Why?? there is no evidence in her PP to come to this conclusion.
She has been doing the same or similar to last year and won her last race easily enough from what i saw.

Has she ever beaten grade 1 males on dirt? Until she does I don't believe she can.

Last year she beat grade 1 males on Pro Ride. Big difference this year.

Charlie D

10-13-2010, 08:19 PM

Has she ever beaten grade 1 males on dirt? Until she does I don't believe she can't

No, so there is no evidence that tells you she can not beat them :rolleyes:

Last year she beat grade 1 males on Pro Ride. Big difference this year.

No big difference to last year actually Andy as she is going to be racing against decent males on a surface she is proven on

andymays

10-13-2010, 08:26 PM

No, so there is no evidence that tells you she can not beat them :rolleyes:

No big difference to last year actually Andy as she is going to be racing against decent males on a surface she is proven on

There is no evidence that she can beat them and she will be overbet. :rolleyes:

There is a big difference from last year. Not a small difference but a big difference.

Charlie D

10-13-2010, 08:32 PM

Andy

Her PP tells you Dirt is no problem, beating males is no problem, but you are concluding the opposite.

read sig imho.

andymays

10-13-2010, 08:34 PM

Andy

Her PP tells you Dirt is no problem, beating males is no problem, but you are concluding the opposite.

read sig inho.

Charlie D, given your confidence in her ability to win the Classic I would advise you to go all in on her.

Pick6

10-13-2010, 08:34 PM

There is no evidence that she can beat them and she will be overbet. :rolleyes:

There is a big difference from last year. Not a small difference but a big difference.
Instead of guessing on post time odds, how about you tell us her % chances of winning assuming a fast track and 12 horse field with the expected major contenders entered.

andymays

10-13-2010, 08:36 PM

Instead of guessing on post time odds, how about you tell us her % chances of winning assuming a fast track and 12 horse field with the expected major contenders entered.

I don't think her chances of winning come close to what her low odds will be at post time.

Pick6

10-13-2010, 08:43 PM

I don't think her chances of winning come close to what her low odds will be at post time.
With that in mind would you please quantify that to a % chance?

andymays

10-13-2010, 08:44 PM

With that in mind would you please quantify that to a % chance?

With that in mind No.

Pick6

10-13-2010, 08:44 PM

No.
Is there some reason? Seems a fair question.

Charlie D

10-13-2010, 08:50 PM

Charlie D, given your confidence in her ability to win the Classic I would advise you to go all in on her.

Didn't state she was going to win, but don't let that stop you posting BS and if i took your advice to go All in then i'd be a silly as you seem to be.

andymays

10-13-2010, 08:51 PM

Didn't state she was going to win, but don't let that stop you posting BS and if i took your advice to go All then i'd be a silly as you seem to be.

Charlie D, I wasn't rude to you at all in our exchange and answered your questions truthfully. What's with the smart *ss stuff? That's a little silly on your part.

Charlie D

10-13-2010, 09:00 PM

Charlie D, I wasn't rude to you at all in our exchange and answered your questions truthfully. What's with the smart *ss stuff? That's a little silly on your part.

Don't think i have been rude, but if i have, i'm sure admin will remove these statements.

As for smart ass comments, you could probably take this as one

Charlie D, given your confidence in her ability to win the Classic I would advise you to go all in on her.

andymays

10-13-2010, 09:02 PM

Don't think i have been rude, but if i have, i'm sure admin will remove these statements.

As for smart ass comments, you could probably take this as one

Why would you think that saying you should go all in on her given your confidence in her ability to win is out of line?

Is there some cultural thing that I don't know about?

ronsmac

10-13-2010, 09:02 PM

You're kind of making my point and contradicting yourself. ;)
She won't be 1/2. So she will not be overbet.

andymays

10-13-2010, 09:03 PM

She won't be 1/2. So she will not be overbet.

I admire your confidence.

Charlie D

10-13-2010, 09:05 PM

Why would you think that saying you should go all in on her given your confidence in her ability to win is out of line?

Is there some cultural thing that I don't know about?

Telling someone to go ALL in is silly advice,

Why would you think anything i have stated is a rude or smart ass comment??

andymays

10-13-2010, 09:07 PM

Why would you think anything i have stated is a rude or smart ass comment??

Post #96. Maybe I'm taking it wrong. Was it a compliment?

Pick6

10-13-2010, 09:07 PM

Why would you think that saying you should go all in on her given your confidence in her ability to win is out of line?

Is there some cultural thing that I don't know about?
No reasonable bettor would ever go "all in" on any bet unless they were at no risk of losing. This is a horse race.

You can offer up your view of her chances on the poll; seems to be a fair way to gauge people's estimates. No harm, of course; this is only a HR forum.

andymays

10-13-2010, 09:08 PM

No reasonable bettor would ever go "all in" on any bet unless they were at no risk of losing. This is a horse race.

You can offer up your view of her chances on the poll; seems to be a fair way to gauge people's estimates. No harm, of course; this is only a HR forum.

Don't you have your own thread to carry now? :lol:

Pick6

10-13-2010, 09:10 PM

Don't you have your own thread to carry now? :lol:
You can still simply offer up your estimate of her chances. What is the harm in that? Seems reasonable, right? If you are convinced she will be "overbet", then I am guessing you have some idea of her chances, right?

andymays

10-13-2010, 09:13 PM

You can still simply offer up your estimate of her chances. What is the harm in that? Seems reasonable, right? If you are convinced she will be "overbet", then I am guessing you have some idea of her chances, right?

You're starting to remind me of gm10. Maybe I'm wrong but I'll keep my distance for a while.

Pick6

10-13-2010, 09:18 PM

You're starting to remind me of gm10. Maybe I'm wrong but I'll keep my distance for a while.
Hey, it's just a number. This is just a HR forum. No rules broken.

You do have an idea of her % chances, right? What harm can there be in posting that?

Charlie D

10-13-2010, 09:18 PM

Post #96. Maybe I'm taking it wrong. Was it a compliment?

No and you know that so why ask such a silly question??

andymays

10-13-2010, 09:19 PM

Hey, it's just a number. This is just a HR forum. No rules broken.

You do have an idea of her % chances, right? What harm can there be in posting that?

gm10 likes people to jump through hoops too. The similarities are scary.

I will admit that you have a long way to go to be as bad as him. ;)

Dan H

10-13-2010, 09:20 PM

Pick6

10-13-2010, 09:21 PM

gm10 likes people to jump through hoops too. The similarities are scary.

I will admit that you have a long way to go to be as bad as him. ;)
Ok, so we have a poll, and you post your estimate. That's it. How is that "jumping through hoops?"

andymays

10-13-2010, 09:22 PM

My vote was 2/5, and I feel that is "over-bet."

I think she (Zenyatta) is in for a very rough trip - being forced to go extra wide on the final turn by some grudge-filled riders in a larger than her customary field. A presser with a perfect trip on (what I expect to be) a live rail should prevail to finish first.

Zenyatta will have to do something she has never done to win this race - overtake that Gr1 male presser who is more accustomed to the surface than she is. This will be real tough company.

My notes from the last BC at CD have alerted me to Keenland shippers and an inside post bias.

I'm not a good enough handicapper to predict the winner, but Z will certainly fill out my exacts and trifecta tickets.

I don't think she's going to be able to relax at the back of the pack for most of the race like she usually does. There will be a couple of others right by her.

bks

10-13-2010, 09:40 PM

DanH wrote:

Zenyatta will have to do something she has never done to win this race - overtake that Gr1 male presser who is more accustomed to the surface than she is. This will be real tough company.

I think you make a good point, Dan. But if some of the speed materializes, we may see a slightly-strung-out field and an easier way through for her. Maybe not, of course. They could still bunch up on the turn.

But I don't agree it's real tough company. No monsters in there.

Valuist

10-13-2010, 10:47 PM

I want to vote "over 4-1". Certainly not impossible and far more likely than the ridiculous 1-5 and 2-5 quoted odds. Get a full field....Quality Road, Blame, and some good 3 year olds and 9-2 is NOT an impossibility. Can't wait to see the Kool-Aid drinkers reaction to this post.

GatetoWire

10-13-2010, 10:53 PM

My vote was 2/5, and I feel that is "over-bet."

I think she (Zenyatta) is in for a very rough trip - being forced to go extra wide on the final turn by some grudge-filled riders in a larger than her customary field. A presser with a perfect trip on (what I expect to be) a live rail should prevail to finish first.

Zenyatta will have to do something she has never done to win this race - overtake that Gr1 male presser who is more accustomed to the surface than she is. This will be real tough company.

My notes from the last BC at CD have alerted me to Keenland shippers and an inside post bias.

I'm not a good enough handicapper to predict the winner, but Z will certainly fill out my exacts and trifecta tickets.

Good Luck with Keenland shippers this year....that track is so different than it was in 2006.....plus it looks like most of the Keenland Poly runners will switch to turf for the BC......I don't see any Street Sense's in this years BC fields.

I have noticed a couple of Keenland horses that I think have a big shot in the BC but I am really not sure how the 2010 Keenland Poly track form will transfer to CD.

bks

10-13-2010, 11:04 PM

Valuist wrote:
I want to vote "over 4-1". Certainly not impossible and far more likely than the ridiculous 1-5 and 2-5 quoted odds. Get a full field....Quality Road, Blame, and some good 3 year olds and 9-2 is NOT an impossibility. Can't wait to see the Kool-Aid drinkers reaction to this post.

assessing Zenyatta's odds at post time has nothing to do with Kool-Aid. I like her chances, but full field or not, there's a better chance of gravity ceasing to operate than getting 9/2 on Zenyatta.

Quality Road is 6-1 in future books, though he'll get bet to a lower number. Blame and LaL, while strong contenders, each have question marks, but neither will be lower than 7/2 with Z in the race.

There's no one else that will make a big dent in the pools.

FenceBored

10-14-2010, 07:26 AM

Maybe you should start one of these; nobody is stopping you. Check out GoDaddy, it won't cost you much. I'd enjoy observing the content you post.

Maybe then you will get some value on Z?

Make sense. Zenyatta.com (www.zenyatta.com) (the OFFICIAL Zenyatta website) already exists. Zenyatta2010, the BC site, is something different.

Me setting up a site for any of these horses would just be on the level of any fan site, unless I got complete buy-in from the connections, and even then it wouldn't be the same thing as BC setting up a separate site for that horse.

Valuist

10-14-2010, 09:36 AM

assessing Zenyatta's odds at post time has nothing to do with Kool-Aid. I like her chances, but full field or not, there's a better chance of gravity ceasing to operate than getting 9/2 on Zenyatta.

Quality Road is 6-1 in future books, though he'll get bet to a lower number. Blame and LaL, while strong contenders, each have question marks, but neither will be lower than 7/2 with Z in the race.

There's no one else that will make a big dent in the pools.

William Hill's antepost odds are as sharp as any. They have Lookin at Lucky listed as a co-favorite with Zenyatta at 4-1.

bks

10-14-2010, 09:49 AM

William Hill's antepost odds are as sharp as any. They have Lookin at Lucky listed as a co-favorite with Zenyatta at 4-1.

Did they have her at 5-2 last time?

Valuist

10-14-2010, 01:24 PM

I remember looking last year and she was either favored or one of the top two choices. Can't tell you if they had her exactly around 5-2 but I would imagine it was pretty close. Seen that last year's running was on synthetic, a surface where she IS the best horse, that shouldn't be a surprise.

Why the obsession with last year's odds? That was a different surface, and a different group of horses. It has no bearing on what her odds will be at Churchill.

thaskalos

10-14-2010, 01:30 PM

andymays

10-14-2010, 02:03 PM

She was a lot less regarded before last year's Classic than she is now. It was her victory in the Classic that elevated her to "superstar' status...

That's true but at the time most experienced players felt she was overbet for that race. I think she will really be overbet in this one. I believe there are going to be more interational players in the pools this year as well. Zenyatta is pretty well known around the world.

bks

10-14-2010, 02:08 PM

My point was that William Hill misfired on her odds last time, Valuist. I think she's got a better chance of being 6/5 than 5/2 this year.

DJofSD

10-14-2010, 02:08 PM

Andy, it sounds like you and I would lay against Z. Too bad we don't have that option.

andymays

10-14-2010, 02:09 PM

Andy, it sounds like you and I would lay against Z. Too bad we don't have that option.

She would have to be 6-1 before I would think about betting on her.

DJofSD

10-14-2010, 02:17 PM

I started to think about what my cut off would be after reading this thread. Your's is 6:1. I would take her at 4:1 or better. Why 4:1? Stupid answer: b/c I like pay offs with more than one digit left of the decimal point!

WeirdWilly

10-14-2010, 02:17 PM

http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/59317/bc-launches-zenyatta-focused-website

Excerpt:

“She is the star of the show,” said Peter Rotondo, vice president of media and entertainment for the Breeders’ Cup, in a release. “We wanted to create an environment where people could interactively engage and share in the Zenyatta phenomenon and where we could help educate a broader audience that may be new to Zenyatta, working with her team to provide some behind the scenes access.”

Huh? All I have been reading here is that she is really a nobody, an unknown, an over-hyped nag.

According to the wizards here at PA, the BC people are wasting their time with something like this, since 20 out of 20 people in Louisville have NO idea who she is!

:lol:

PaceAdvantage

10-14-2010, 06:02 PM

Huh? All I have been reading here is that she is really a nobody, an unknown, an over-hyped nag.

According to the wizards here at PA, the BC people are wasting their time with something like this, since 20 out of 20 people in Louisville have NO idea who she is!

:lol:Why do you take this stuff so personally? Wizards? All you've been reading here?

Get a grip.

Pick6

10-14-2010, 07:29 PM

She would have to be 6-1 before I would think about betting on her.
Thanks. It wasn't that difficult now, was it?

andymays

10-14-2010, 07:43 PM

Thanks. It wasn't that difficult now, was it?

I would have answered your question and posted in your thread early on if you didn't bust my stones. ;)

WeirdWilly

10-15-2010, 02:09 AM

Why do you take this stuff so personally? Wizards? All you've been reading here?

Get a grip.

I blame the Monster Energy drinks, over-enthusiasm, and positive female response to Zenyatta videos

Pick6

10-15-2010, 12:16 PM

I would have answered your question and posted in your thread early on if you didn't bust my stones. ;)
I ask you nicely and you interpret that as "bust my stones".

PaceAdvantage

10-15-2010, 06:01 PM

I blame the Monster Energy drinks, over-enthusiasm, and positive female response to Zenyatta videosOK, you are forgiven. :lol:

depalma113

11-02-2010, 02:21 PM

Even money or lower would be a pretty shocking scenario.

9-5 or 2-1...that's the price I see. Maybe 8-5, but that would be surprising to me if she's that low.

Morning line of 8-5. I think even money is all but a given now.

thaskalos

11-02-2010, 02:59 PM

Morning line of 8-5. I think even money is all but a given now.Never! The depth of the field practically guarantees that Zenyatta will be at least 9-5...

There are genuine concerns surrounding this horse, and the "smart-money" action will reflect it.

IMO...the reason Zenyatta is listed at 8-5 has more to do with the "mystery" surrounding Quality Road in this race...than with Zenyatta's superiority.

cpitt84

11-02-2010, 03:11 PM

anyone else order the zenyatta commerative issue? I can't wait to get it!

andymays

11-02-2010, 03:16 PM

1. Quality Road - John Velazquez - 5-1

2. Paddy O'Prado - Kent Desormeaux - 15-1

3. Haynesfield - Ramon Dominguez - 12-1

4. First Dude - Robby Albarado - 15-1

5. Blame - Garrett Gomez - 9-2

6. Fly Down - Julien Leparoux - 15-1

7. Musket Man - Rajiv Maragh - 20-1

8. Zenyatta - Mike Smith - 8-5

9. Pleasant Prince - Joel Rosario - 30-1

10. Etched - Alan Garcia - 30-1

11. Espoir City - Tetsuzo Satoh - 20-1

12. Lookin At Lucky - Martin Garcia - 6-1

Tom

11-02-2010, 03:31 PM

IMO...the reason Zenyatta is listed at 8-5 has more to do with the "mystery" surrounding Quality Road in this race...than with Zenyatta's superiority.

Don't forget what happened last year.....QR took one look at Zenny in person and had a panic attack he was so scared! Flat out refused to run against her. :D

And Gio Ponti, he lost his next couple because when the others horses got along side him he had flashbacks and lost his action late! Look it up!

Charlie D

11-02-2010, 03:55 PM

thaskalos

11-02-2010, 03:58 PM

FWIW. 5-2 or above and she is a bet according to me :)We agree Charlie...:ThmbUp:

horses4courses

11-02-2010, 04:18 PM

I speculated weeks ago that Zenyatta would go off at around 2-1.
Lower odds, should any of the next top 4 contenders scratch, and very unlikely to be any higher - under any circumstances.

The weight of public money may drive her down close to even money.

Those waiting for potential overlay situations in this race are licking their chops! No matter how you cut it, her true odds of winning are over 3-1.

thaskalos

11-02-2010, 04:29 PM

I have her odds of winning at 36%...or 1.78/1.

Charlie D

11-02-2010, 04:43 PM

Those waiting for potential overlay situations in this race are licking their chops! No matter how you cut it, her true odds of winning are over 3-1.

I hope there are plenty of layers this side of the pond thinking above on Saturday.

pandy

11-02-2010, 04:51 PM

I think Zenyatta will be 7-5 and not over bet. A bad favorite that comes to mind was Curlin. I threw him out and boxed the three Euro shippers and hit the big exacta that year. The pace projects to be fast here and I think the bettors will anticipate that and bet Zenyatta accordingly.

JustRalph

11-02-2010, 05:04 PM

The latest IPAD Breeders Cup App has a Zenyatta button on the front page where you can get to all things Z. She has her own section of the app.....

I wonder if we will ever see that for other horses in the future

BluegrassProf

11-02-2010, 08:09 PM

Look it up!Without looking, I bet there's like a 40% chance someone put this on the Wikipedia page... :D

PaceAdvantage

11-02-2010, 09:51 PM

Morning line of 8-5. I think even money is all but a given now.I disagree. It would shock me to see her go off that low.

chickenhead

11-02-2010, 11:33 PM

I've assumed she'll be around 5/2....maybe I'm crazy, but I just don't see her going off much lower than that. If she goes at 8/5 I'll be amazed.

andymays

11-03-2010, 10:08 AM

http://www.courier-journal.com/article/20101102/SPORTS08/311020032/1037/rss0701

Excerpt:

As Churchill Downs oddsmaker Mike Battaglia began making the morning line for Saturday's $5 million Breeders' Cup Classic, he penciled in unbeaten Zenyatta as the 5-2 favorite.“Then my wife showed me the latest issue of Oprah (O magazine) , where Zenyatta was among the 20 most influential females in the country, so I knocked her down to 2-1,” Battaglia told Tuesday's post-position draw audience. “Then I was watching ‘60 Minutes' on Sunday and I saw this great piece on her,, so I knocked her down to 8-5.

Tom

11-03-2010, 10:21 AM

If he reads some threads here, she will be 20-1!
Or 1-9.

:D

horses4courses

11-03-2010, 04:08 PM

I've assumed she'll be around 5/2....maybe I'm crazy, but I just don't see her going off much lower than that. If she goes at 8/5 I'll be amazed.

I think you will see 8-5 easier than you will see 5-2.
Public opinion is powerful - it's just a question of how much the value-seekers are willing to bet against her.

oddsmaven

11-03-2010, 04:43 PM

When linemakers put 8:5, they really are expecting something close to even money...Zenyatta proved she could win or dirt & separately beat males...but last year the likes of Summer Bird had to race on synthetic...this year, she's racing on THEIR TERMS...I like QR, who looks to come up to the race sharp...Blame & Lucky also merit serious support, so she doesn't deserve to be a real heavy favorite...she seemed to struggle in just beating the females this year...there's enough evidence to keep her from really being pounded, IMO.

gm10

11-03-2010, 06:02 PM

andymays

11-03-2010, 07:25 PM

The Zenyatta collection; champion’s connections get custom bling

http://blog-beb.thoroughbredtimes.com/2010/11/zenyatta-collection-champions.html

Excerpt:

Ann Moss turned to longtime friend and jewelry designer Loree Radkin to design a Zenyatta ring for herself and a bracelet for the Moss’s racing manager, Dottie Ingordo-Shirreffs.

Radkin designed the jewelry worn by First Lady Michelle Obama on the occasion of her husband’s inauguration as President, and that work currently appears in the Smithsonian, but she had never designed for a queen before.

“This horse is the most magnificent creature on the planet,” Radkin said. “There’s a look in Zenyatta’s eye that she’s a superstar. She knows she’s the ‘it’ girl.”

horses4courses

11-03-2010, 07:43 PM

When linemakers put 8:5, they really are expecting something close to even money...

Not sure where you come up with that.
I would venture to say that they are expecting something close to 8-5........

thaskalos

11-03-2010, 08:15 PM

Zenyatta 'could start odds-on' for Classic

http://www.racingpost.com/news/horse-racing/churchill-downs-churchill-downs-zenyatta-gamble-gathers-pace-for-breeders-cup/785131/top/

backed her at 5/1 about 3 weeks ago!!If Zenyatta goes off at even money in the Classic, it could only mean that the speed figure "boys" are not the heavy bettors that they advertise themselves to be...:)

Horseplayersbet.com

11-03-2010, 08:53 PM

Anything under 8-1 is a big underlay. I just looked at the race, and even though I'll be rooting for Zenyatta, my money will be elsewhere.

Oh, and I hated Zenyatta in this race last year, so take my opinion with a grain of salt. Musket Man looks good.

oddsmaven

11-05-2010, 09:21 AM

Not sure where you come up with that.
I would venture to say that they are expecting something close to 8-5........
Where I come up with that is - obervation & asking.
Do you really think the linemaker thinks the favorite will be 3:1 or 5:2 as often as they put it? Please! They seldom go off that high. Plus I asked the NY guy and he confirmed it. Maybe some of the guys don't keep the favorite high, but the ones I've followed always have.

depalma113

11-06-2010, 07:55 AM

Zenyatta currently at 3/5! It's freaking Christmas morning!

Izzy2742

11-06-2010, 09:15 AM

I am rooting for Zenyatta, but will not bet on her today.

Yesterday, in the route races, the furthest anyone came from behind to win at any call was 5.5 lengths. I'm sure she'll be much further back than that.

And the furthest from behind anyone came from the "Str" call was Apart in the Ack Ack Handicap (one length).

I'm sure Mike Smith is aware of this, but it seems ominous at 6/5 or so.

Robert Goren

11-06-2010, 09:48 AM

Zenyatta may well win, but betting short priced closers is the leading cause of sleeping in a homeless shelter.

pandy

11-06-2010, 11:14 AM

I agree that generally speaking you want to bet overlays and longshots, but the key is betting against weak favorites. If you think that Zenyatta is a weak favorite, in other words, a favorite that is likely to lose, or shouldn't be favored in the first place, then you have a good case for betting against her. Personally, I think she is a strong favorite who is likely to win and therefore not worth betting against.

DJofSD

11-10-2010, 10:56 AM

So, who correctly guessed the closing odds on Zen?

depalma113

11-10-2010, 11:30 PM

She will be even money or lower.

If Bernardini can go into the race as an even money favorite in a 13 horse field, the defending champion with a 19-0 record is certainly going to be that low against what this field is shaping up to be.

In fact, I doubt any other horse will be below 5-1.

If Lookin at Lucky hadn't snuck in at 4.9 -1, I would have retired perfect.