View Full Version : Anyone know how recent Zenyatta foes Rinterval and Zardana did today?
andymays
10-10-2010, 06:16 PM
Just curious.
Zardanya out. Not sure on the other ....just watched it and forgot already, but I was watching the other Z.
Both ran out.
Seabiscuit@AR
10-10-2010, 06:21 PM
Zardana is only famous for beating Rachel so has to be classified as more of a Rachel foe
Horses that run with Rachel do not come back. She destroyed them.
andymays
10-10-2010, 06:26 PM
Zardana is only famous for beating Rachel so has to be classified as more of a Rachel foe
Yes, but Rachel retired. I was wondering if Rinterval or Zardana had a shot in the filly and mare classic since they both ran reasonably well to Zenyatta who is supposed to be favored in the Classic.
FenceBored
10-10-2010, 06:31 PM
Zardana is only famous for beating Rachel so has to be classified as more of a Rachel foe
Nice try, but her last out was against Zenyatta in the Vanity. If she'd won today there'd be claims that this was a next out G1 win for a beaten Zenyatta foe (legitimately), so you got to take the bad with the good.
Dahoss9698
10-10-2010, 06:32 PM
It was the trip over the rockies that probably did them in.
andymays
10-10-2010, 06:34 PM
Someone just PM'd me that they finished 6th and 9th. Is that possible given that one of them came close to beating Zenyatta and the other ran third to Zenyatta?
What are we to make of Zenyattas recent competition? I'm told that Switch is running in a 7 furlong sprint next but I could be wrong.
FenceBored
10-10-2010, 06:35 PM
Just curious.
Officially, Rinterval 6th (beaten 6.75), Zardana 9th (beaten 7.25).
andymays
10-10-2010, 06:36 PM
Officially, Rinterval 6th (beaten 6.75), Zardana 9th (beaten 7.25).
Hmmmmmmmmm
Run into the ground. That whirlwind going past them in the stretch sucked out the will to win. As they turned for home, both had flashbacks and gave it up.
Both now sit in their stalls and drool a lot while shivering.
andymays
10-10-2010, 06:53 PM
Someone just PM'd me that they finished 6th and 9th. Is that possible given that one of them came close to beating Zenyatta and the other ran third to Zenyatta?
What are we to make of Zenyattas recent competition? I'm told that ]Switch[/B] is running in a 7 furlong sprint next but I could be wrong.
http://drf.com/news/switch-will-stick-plan
Excerpt:
Even though the 3-year-old filly would appear to be a suitable contender for the $2 million Breeders’ Cup Ladies’ Classic over 1 1/8 miles at Churchill Downs on Nov. 5 following her determined performance against Zenyatta, Sadler said she is better suited to the $1 million Filly and Mare Sprint over seven furlongs on the same day.
ArlJim78
10-10-2010, 07:06 PM
Andy how badly will Zenyatta get beat in the classic, 5 lengths, 10 lengths, 15 lengths, more?
FenceBored
10-10-2010, 07:06 PM
And, for bonus points, we had Striking Dancer finishing 7th beaten 6.75. Striking Dancer ran 4th (beaten 1.75) to Zenyatta in the Santa Margarita back in March.
andymays
10-10-2010, 07:11 PM
Andy how badly will Zenyatta get beat in the classic, 5 lengths, 10 lengths, 15 lengths, more?
Haven't thought about it yet.
Her competition this year has been suspect at best. How many of them are even going in the ladies classic? That's a little strange don't you think? And she's going to be favored in the Classic? Hmmmmmm
Stillriledup
10-10-2010, 09:31 PM
Just curious.
Probably well you would imagine. After all, they're coming out of a 'key' race. :jump:
PaceAdvantage
10-10-2010, 11:58 PM
Andy how badly will Zenyatta get beat in the classic, 5 lengths, 10 lengths, 15 lengths, more?I suspect Zenyatta will be much closer than 5 lengths. I don't think she will win, but I think she will put in her usual gutsy effort, and that will get her close.
It's a whole other world facing Grade 1 males on dirt, as compared to facing Grade 1 turf and dirt males on synthetics.
horses4courses
10-11-2010, 12:10 AM
Her competition this year has been suspect at best. How many of them are even going in the ladies classic? That's a little strange don't you think? And she's going to be favored in the Classic? Hmmmmmm
Her competition in '09 before the BCC was suspect, too.
That being said, her connections had her right on song for the big race.
This year, not long after her second win in the Apple Blossom, a race that was open for all of her sex 4 years and older, the connections mapped out the path to the 2010 BCC at Churchill. She hasn't dodged anyone.
The wins keep coming, and she will go to the BCC a sound and happy mare.
PaceAdvantage
10-11-2010, 11:33 AM
This year, not long after her second win in the Apple Blossom, a race that was open for all of her sex 4 years and older, the connections mapped out the path to the 2010 BCC at Churchill. She hasn't dodged anyone.Of course she has. She dodged all the open company races in California for starters. Hell, even St Trinians (you remember her) took on males in the Santa Anita Handicap (as the FAVORITE no less, and got summarily trounced).
I think you need a new category called 'Sad Zenyatta bashing threads'. Anydmays is the ideal moderator imo.
andymays
10-11-2010, 05:24 PM
I think you need a new category called 'Sad Zenyatta bashing threads'. Anydmays is the ideal moderator imo.
What we really should have is a new category just called "Sad". gm10 can be the moderator and only poster.
If you can't argue any of the points about Zenyattas recent competition made in the thread then do the board a favor and get lost.
Dahoss9698
10-11-2010, 05:28 PM
What we really should have is a new category just called "Sad". gm10 can be the moderator and only poster.
While I don't disagree with the category or moderator, you should open up who can post there. There are many who deserve the chance to post in this new spot.
andymays
10-11-2010, 05:31 PM
While I don't disagree with the category or moderator, you should open up who can post there. There are many who deserve the chance to post in this new spot.
I think they're removing the Pro Ride today from Santa Anita and he's throwing a tantrum over it.
What we really should have is a new category just called "Sad". gm10 can be the moderator and only poster.
If you can't argue any of the points about Zenyattas recent competition made in the thread then do the board a favor and get lost.
It is a point that has been made a million times here. This thread is just irritating. Why not make a similar tread every time a horse from the Woodward 2009 loses AGAIN. Oh no wait, RA broke their hearts, that's why they lose. Of course!
This thread is simply S A D.
andymays
10-11-2010, 05:33 PM
It is a point that has been made a million times here. This thread is just irritating. Why not make a similar tread every time a horse from the Woodward 2009 loses AGAIN. Oh no wait, RA broke their hearts, that's why.
This thread is simply S A D.
Who gives a sh*t what you find irritating? You're irritating not to mention wrong all the time. Do everyone a favor and get lost again.
Who gives a sh*t what you find irritating? You're irritating not to mention wrong all the time. Do everyone a favor and get lost again.
OK you have gone a level beyond sad. Goodbye.
andymays
10-11-2010, 05:39 PM
OK you have gone a level beyond sad. Goodbye.
You've broken that promise several times before. Let's hope for everyones sake that you keep your word for once.
By the way>>>>
Santa Anita Starts Surface Replacement
http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/59309/santa-anita-starts-surface-replacement
:lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:
The Breeders Cup Classic is on dirt at Churchill this year right? :D
Robert Fischer
10-11-2010, 05:52 PM
you have to remember that Rinterval needed a 1:15.11 pace and a lone speed trip and a distance of only 8.5F to stay anywhere near Zenyatta.
Clearly if she was a mare who belonged in the G1 Spinster, she would have beaten Zenyatta with those scales so dramatically in her favor. Even with "Z" on her PPs, she went off 9-1! No one was fooled.
Switch is a decent horse, who like Zenyatta in the Lady's Secret only had to run for part of the race. The pace was only 113 and the distance was only 8.5 and Switch had 2 or 3 lengths headstart when it came time to actually run, and she did a nice job of staying within a length. Better horse than Rinterval but she isn't some Grade I leader.
ArlJim78
10-11-2010, 05:55 PM
I suspect Zenyatta will be much closer than 5 lengths. I don't think she will win, but I think she will put in her usual gutsy effort, and that will get her close.
It's a whole other world facing Grade 1 males on dirt, as compared to facing Grade 1 turf and dirt males on synthetics.
If she does get close like you say (much closer than five lengths), then why is it "a whole other world" for her to face Grade 1 males? It sounds like you're saying she fits well in the race.
I thought with all this talk around here about how she ducks the competition and has been facing nothing but tomato cans, that people were figuring that she'd be way out of the picture in the classic. A complete non factor who will be exposed.
andymays
10-11-2010, 06:01 PM
you have to remember that Rinterval needed a 1:15.11 pace and a lone speed trip and a distance of only 8.5F to stay anywhere near Zenyatta.
Clearly if she was a mare who belonged in the G1 Spinster, she would have beaten Zenyatta with those scales so dramatically in her favor. Even with "Z" on her PPs, she went off 9-1! No one was fooled.
Switch is a decent horse, who like Zenyatta in the Lady's Secret only had to run for part of the race. The pace was only 113 and the distance was only 8.5 and Switch had 2 or 3 lengths headstart when it came time to actually run, and she did a nice job of staying within a length. Better horse than Rinterval but she isn't some Grade I leader.
So if we are handicapping for the Classic this year knowing that Zenyatta will be dramatically overbet what do you do? I'm thowing her out of everything except for fourth in the superfecta.
If she wins she deserves it. If she runs well and loses she will still get my respect. At least she will be taking on the best on dirt.
Robert Fischer
10-11-2010, 06:45 PM
So if we are handicapping for the Classic this year knowing that Zenyatta will be dramatically overbet what do you do? I'm thowing her out of everything except for fourth in the superfecta.
If she wins she deserves it. If she runs well and loses she will still get my respect. At least she will be taking on the best on dirt.
I think that whether or not she will be overbet will not be evident until the race either falls apart late, or favors the forwardly placed runners.
discodog
10-11-2010, 06:49 PM
Please do not discourage Zenyatta from coming to Churchill. I want all of the Califorina money I can get.
jonnielu
10-11-2010, 07:18 PM
Someone just PM'd me that they finished 6th and 9th. Is that possible given that one of them came close to beating Zenyatta and the other ran third to Zenyatta?
What are we to make of Zenyattas recent competition? I'm told that Switch is running in a 7 furlong sprint next but I could be wrong.
All you have to do is make sense of it like the "great handicapper" does. As we all know, horse racing always makes complete sense, except for when it doesn't. At those times, the variant, bias, trip, form cycle, and cheating can pretty much make complete sense of any results.
By applying this wisdom, developed over many decades by "experts" who know exactly how it should have gone, and which was the "best" horse, all mysteries of the turf can be resolved.
Everyone knows that the artificial track is clearly preferred by Zenyatta, and she may be the only horse in the country that is clearly propelled by it. The failure of these other two this weekend is just more evidence that they, obviously can't run on the surface. They should put a little tomato can icon in the past performances for these kind of horses that the poly holds back, because it is now obvious that they are only suited for a dirt track. And since they are nothing but tomato cans, at least on poly, the horse that beat them should get no credit whatsoever, and get a little tomato can icon next to that PP line too.
jdl
Rackon
10-11-2010, 07:21 PM
you have to remember that Rinterval needed a 1:15.11 pace and a lone speed trip and a distance of only 8.5F to stay anywhere near Zenyatta.
Clearly if she was a mare who belonged in the G1 Spinster, she would have beaten Zenyatta with those scales so dramatically in her favor. Even with "Z" on her PPs, she went off 9-1! No one was fooled.
Switch is a decent horse, who like Zenyatta in the Lady's Secret only had to run for part of the race. The pace was only 113 and the distance was only 8.5 and Switch had 2 or 3 lengths headstart when it came time to actually run, and she did a nice job of staying within a length. Better horse than Rinterval but she isn't some Grade I leader.
Agree with you here!
Moreover, even if Rinterval fit in the Spinster better I would've still tossed her - fractious in the paddock the weekend before, tried to throw herself and got scratched, missed intended race and so shipped in at last minute for Spinster on quirky Keeneland surface - not much to like there even if you like the mare.
So quite aside from anyone's previously held or current opinions about Zenyatta, IMOR interval's performance in the Spinster isn't a particularly useful yardstick in assessing Zenyatta's current form.
jonnielu
10-11-2010, 07:43 PM
So if we are handicapping for the Classic this year knowing that Zenyatta will be dramatically overbet what do you do? I'm thowing her out of everything except for fourth in the superfecta.
If she wins she deserves it. If she runs well and loses she will still get my respect. At least she will be taking on the best on dirt.
Why assume that Zenyatta will be overbet? Surely, there are enough players that believe Kentucky dirt will make a huge difference. At least that dirt will propel some other horse and not Zenyatta. Since Zenyatta will be running on dirt, she supposedly loses her only advantage. Which horse is seen as the "fastest"? That is your overbet candidate.
jdl
andymays
10-11-2010, 07:46 PM
Why assume that Zenyatta will be overbet? Surely, there are enough players that believe Kentucky dirt will make a huge difference. At least that dirt will propel some other horse and not Zenyatta. Since Zenyatta will be running on dirt, she supposedly loses her only advantage. Which horse is seen as the "fastest"? That is your overbet candidate.
jdl
You can't be serious.
Dahoss9698
10-11-2010, 08:04 PM
You can't be serious.
You might have spoke too soon. Jonnielu would make a fine moderator.
bisket
10-11-2010, 08:08 PM
Why assume that Zenyatta will be overbet? Surely, there are enough players that believe Kentucky dirt will make a huge difference. At least that dirt will propel some other horse and not Zenyatta. Since Zenyatta will be running on dirt, she supposedly loses her only advantage. Which horse is seen as the "fastest"? That is your overbet candidate.
jdl
i agree with your tongue in cheek post here. (at least thats how i see it). its absolutely hilarious how many handicappers on this board seem to process zenyatta's races in this fashion: every horse that races zenyatta and then runs admirably on the dirt is hampered by the poly track. although when it comes to analyzing zenyatta she puts on her magic horseshoes and it makes her incredibly fast on the poly track and slow on dirt... i don't think it has occurred to many handicappers that the surface might just slow zenyatta as much as many others
Dahoss9698
10-11-2010, 08:10 PM
...and a new candidate emerges.
andymays
10-11-2010, 08:20 PM
Zenyatta will be overbet.
How can anyone disagree with this? Where am I?
PhantomOnTour
10-11-2010, 08:25 PM
Zenyatta will be overbet.
How can anyone disagree with this? Where am I?
In a thread that you started by asking a question I think you already knew the answer to.
andymays
10-11-2010, 08:26 PM
In a thread that you started by asking a question I think you already knew the answer to.
Yes, I was being a smart ass when I started it. I knew the results. Most people knew that I was trying to make a point in a sarcastic way.
PhantomOnTour
10-11-2010, 08:28 PM
Yes, I was being a smart ass when I started it. I knew the results. Most people knew that I was trying to make a point in a sarcastic way.
I can see the Rinterval angle but why Zardana? She beat Rachel and lost to Zenyatta.
andymays
10-11-2010, 08:29 PM
I can see the Rinterval angle but why Zardana? She beat Rachel and lost to Zenyatta.
Rachel is irrelevant to the discussion. Zardana fished third to Zenyatta.
FenceBored
10-11-2010, 08:49 PM
I can see the Rinterval angle but why Zardana? She beat Rachel and lost to Zenyatta.
Rachel also beat her by 13 in the La Troienne, but let's forget about that. :rolleyes:
PhantomOnTour
10-11-2010, 09:05 PM
Rachel also beat her by 13 in the La Troienne, but let's forget about that. :rolleyes:
It was my mistaken assumption that the OP in this thread was sorta' doing a Rachel/Zen thing, so I brought up Rachel. That wasn't his direction at all and it's just about Zen...but since you wish to bring Rachel into it again....
Zen beat a horse who's beaten Rachel...what horse did Rachel beat that subsequently defeated Zenyatta? Hmmmm......
Yes, Rachel defeated Zardana in the La Troienne in the rematch.
Zenyatta has never needed a rematch.
PaceAdvantage
10-11-2010, 09:48 PM
If she does get close like you say (much closer than five lengths), then why is it "a whole other world" for her to face Grade 1 males? It sounds like you're saying she fits well in the race.
I thought with all this talk around here about how she ducks the competition and has been facing nothing but tomato cans, that people were figuring that she'd be way out of the picture in the classic. A complete non factor who will be exposed.Because it's not going to be some walk in the park running down Switch or Rinterval in the last 1/8th or 1/16th of a mile. It's going to be a whole new world.
And I have never said Zenyatta sucks. Quite the opposite. She's a uniquely gifted and talented runner. Nobody denies this. I just don't agree that she has done enough to deserve all of the accolades that have been thrown her way.
I don't know anyone who thinks she will be "way out of the picture" in the classic.
PA wrote:
I don't know anyone who thinks she will be "way out of the picture" in the classic.
For one such fellow, have you met the little guy, PA? Short fellow, usually knows his stuff, gave me and the world Storm in May in the Sunshine Millions Sprint in 2007 with a great analysis, but who can't seem to supply a synthetic runner faster than the "slow" Zenyatta and who actually said that Big Z will do well to finish 9th or better in the Classic?
Maybe he's expecting a blanket finish.
ArlJim78
10-12-2010, 12:12 AM
Because it's not going to be some walk in the park running down Switch or Rinterval in the last 1/8th or 1/16th of a mile. It's going to be a whole new world.
And I have never said Zenyatta sucks. Quite the opposite. She's a uniquely gifted and talented runner. Nobody denies this. I just don't agree that she has done enough to deserve all of the accolades that have been thrown her way.
I don't know anyone who thinks she will be "way out of the picture" in the classic.
Well I've seen many comments like that on here, and with regard to the accolades I just don't see that either. Do you mean like when the dean of racing writers calling her a mere curiosity, that kind of accolade?
What I do notice is a squadron of negativity on this board that is aligned to counter anyone who steps out of line and supports Zenyatta. I don't get that. I mean look at all the mocking threads and posts revolving around Zenyatta, it far outweighs any accolades around here. It's beyond an obsession with several folks here.
With regard to this idea of it being a whole new world, I don't really agree. The classic is a whole new world for all of them to some extent, correct? The part that is different for Zenyatta (facing better competition) in my mind is offset by the fact that I feel she's better on dirt and at 10F, and has never fully went to the bottom in any of her races. Combine that with the fact she's been to the big dance before and triumphed. I really think the outcome will look a lot like all of her other races, a narrow victory.
Dahoss9698
10-12-2010, 12:45 AM
I don't know anyone who thinks she will be "way out of the picture" in the classic.
I think she will be off the board. Other than that, well put.
Because it's not going to be some walk in the park running down Switch or Rinterval in the last 1/8th or 1/16th of a mile. It's going to be a whole new world.
And I have never said Zenyatta sucks. Quite the opposite. She's a uniquely gifted and talented runner. Nobody denies this. I just don't agree that she has done enough to deserve all of the accolades that have been thrown her way.
I don't know anyone who thinks she will be "way out of the picture" in the classic.
I agree that it will be a whole new world. Especially for Lucky and Blame who have it all to prove @ 10F. Lucky won over 9.5F but that was far from his best effort.
Zenyatta is the favorite in my book. I wouldn't be surprised if she won by further than last year. Not that I suggest taking a short price, as it's a good looking field. On the other hand, we have to be honest. If Zenyatta wins, nobody will be calling Lucky or Blame 'great horses' either.
andymays
10-12-2010, 06:56 AM
Well I've seen many comments like that on here, and with regard to the accolades I just don't see that either. Do you mean like when the dean of racing writers calling her a mere curiosity, that kind of accolade?
What I do notice is a squadron of negativity on this board that is aligned to counter anyone who steps out of line and supports Zenyatta. I don't get that. I mean look at all the mocking threads and posts revolving around Zenyatta, it far outweighs any accolades around here. It's beyond an obsession with several folks here.
With regard to this idea of it being a whole new world, I don't really agree. The classic is a whole new world for all of them to some extent, correct? The part that is different for Zenyatta (facing better competition) in my mind is offset by the fact that I feel she's better on dirt and at 10F, and has never fully went to the bottom in any of her races. Combine that with the fact she's been to the big dance before and triumphed. I really think the outcome will look a lot like all of her other races, a narrow victory.
Why is it that people like yourself need to berate anyone who is skeptical of her ability to beat grade 1 males on dirt? It seems like Horse Racings version of political correctness doesn't it?
What's not to understand about Zenyattas competition this year? If you believe that key races are a factor in handicapping then the opposite is also true. Winning races against weak competion is also an important handicapping factor is it not?
What's not to understand that in two years of Cup racing at Santa Anita, not one horse who made its previous start on a dirt track won a race on the synthetic main track"? Given that fact do you think racing on the Pro Ride helped her in last years Breeders Cup and hurt some horses like Summer Bird?
Just because there is push back on this board for anyone ready to declare her the best ever doesn't mean that people hate her. They are skeptical of her ability to beat grade 1 males on a dirt surface. If you want to buy the hype then you have a right to. If other people don't want to buy the hype then they have a right to do that as well. Any handicapper worth his weight is skeptical of an overbet favorite and that is what we will have in the Classic this year.
Are there time tested and established handicapping factors that work against Zenyatta in the upcoming Classic or not? If she can overcome them and win I will be the first to stand up and applaud her. She will be one of the best ever in my book. Until then I will choose to be skeptical.
Why is it that people like yourself need to berate anyone who is skeptical of her ability to beat grade 1 males on dirt? It seems like Horse Racings version of political correctness doesn't it?
What's not to understand about Zenyattas competition this year? If you believe that key races are a factor in handicapping then the opposite is also true. Winning races against weak competion is also an important handicapping factor is it not?
That makes no sense. The concept of a key race is only applicable in the presence of a key race. In the absence of it, it is nonsensical to even mention it. Which key race did RA come out of when she won the Preakness :confused: .
What's not to understand that in two years of Cup racing at Santa Anita, not one horse who made its previous start on a dirt track won a race on the synthetic main track"? Given that fact do you think racing on the Pro Ride helped her in last years Breeders Cup and hurt some horses like Summer Bird?
Again nonsensical. She is a synthetics horse going to dirt which isn't nearly as problematic, judging by her, Lucky's and Blind Luck's efforts this year. The other way around doesn't apply so why even bring it up.
Just because there is push back on this board for anyone ready to declare her the best ever doesn't mean that people hate her. They are skeptical of her ability to beat grade 1 males on a dirt surface. If you want to buy the hype then you have a right to. If other people don't want to buy the hype then they have a right to do that as well. Any handicapper worth his weight is skeptical of an overbet favorite and that is what we will have in the Classic this year.
Are there time tested and established handicapping factors that work against Zenyatta in the upcoming Classic or not? If she can overcome them and win I will be the first to stand up and applaud her. She will be one of the best ever in my book. Until then I will choose to be skeptical.
She already is. What she ran on is irrelevant. There is a top and bottom of the ladder, simple as. She doesn't posses some special polytrack gene that every other horse on the planet lacks. She is just a superior athlete.
andymays
10-12-2010, 07:20 AM
That makes no sense. The concept of a key race is only applicable in the presence of a key race. In the absence of it, it is nonsensical to even mention it. Which key race did RA come out of when she won the Preakness :confused: .
Again nonsensical. She is a synthetics horse going to dirt which isn't nearly as problematic, judging by her, Lucky's and Blind Luck's efforts this year. The other way around doesn't apply.
She already is. What she ran on is irrelevant. There is a top and bottom of the ladder, simple as. She doesn't posses some special polytrack gene that every other horse on the planet lacks. She is just a superior athlete.
Another broken promise by gm10 at the expense of the board. What happened to "Goodbye" in post #26?
Another broken promise by gm10 at the expense of the board. What happened to "Goodbye" in post #26?
A promise broken at the expense of the board? You are exceeding your own standards today.
I was only going to watch some TV, Andy, it was evening for me.
jonnielu
10-12-2010, 08:22 AM
Zenyatta will be overbet.
How can anyone disagree with this? Where am I?
Apparently, somewhat off the mark. Look, this year's BC is going to be real race horses, going in real horse races, on real dirt. Surely, that will make all of the difference in the world.
Sure, many in the crowd will bet Zenyatta, just because she has managed to win 19 horse races in a row. But, these are the great unwashed, what do they know about handicapping a horse race? Hell, these people refuse to recognize how slow Zenyatta is, and that it is only the artificial surface that has been enabling her to win.
Sure, this is a large crowd of unwashed, and most of them will step up to wager their $2, but I doubt that will even show up in the pool against the kind of major money that the "great handicapper" and his legions of followers will be wagering on the fastest horse.
All serious horseplayers know that the fastest horse always wins on real dirt. And, some of the most real dirt in the entire world is found right there in Louisville, KY. Hell, back in '73, two horses broke the 10f record in the same race. How did they do that? The realest of real dirt, that's how.
Sure, we all know that poly has propelled Zenyatta to 17 of her 19 wins, but she is just one horse. Look at how many horses have been propelled to their greatest performance by Churchill Downs real dirt.
Certainly, this is one huge factor that the un-sophisticated Zenyatta fan is completely unaware of. But, the "great handicapper" has been onto this cutting edge knowledge for 40 years. And, he's been telling people about it the whole time. Just look at the record, here is a man that knows about real race horses running 10f on real dirt at Churchill Downs.
Yeah, the morning line guy might make Zenyatta the favorite because of the same uninformed sentimentality, but everybody knows what idiots those guys are when it comes to making a "proper" morning line. Surely, the uncalculable swarms of serious handicappers will override that as they pound the fastest horse down to 6/5.
Keep in mind that the "whales" will likely be right there too, because they are also "serious handicappers".
Then, it is most likely that the majority of Zenyatta zealots will back down to show, especially since the "real dirt" thing has been getting explained to them for years now.
jdl
That makes no sense. The concept of a key race is only applicable in the presence of a key race. In the absence of it, it is nonsensical to even mention it. Which key race did RA come out of when she won the Preakness :confused: .
There are plenty of "negative" key races. Pretty much all of Zenyatta's 2010 efforts fit the bill. None of the others have returned to do anything. It is actually a good tool for a bettor to have.
depalma113
10-12-2010, 08:49 AM
Zenyatta will be even money or lower.
There are plenty of "negative" key races. Pretty much all of Zenyatta's 2010 efforts fit the bill. None of the others have returned to do anything. It is actually a good tool for a bettor to have.
I think it is less than six months ago that you said that you don't look at how horses do after the race to judge their performance. I guess it doesn't matter in the case of RA anyway because she broke the hearts of her opponents who could therefore no longer win races.
Anyway, in the case of Zenyatta I think there is no real key. Switch is a quality filly, and running her down wasn't easy. She has a chance in the FM Sprint. St Trinians is quality and will show it next year. Just Jenda won a G2 not so long ago. And of course there is also the unforgettable Zardana.
Anyway, I maintain that the concept of key races doesn't apply here. The only two who gave her a race were St Trinians and Switch. None of the two have come back yet.
I think it is less than six months ago that you said that you don't look at how horses do after the race to judge their performance. I guess it doesn't matter in the case of RA anyway because she broke the hearts of her opponents who could therefore no longer win races.
Anyway, in the case of Zenyatta I think there is no real key. Switch is a quality filly, and running her down wasn't easy. She has a chance in the FM Sprint. St Trinians is quality and will show it next year. Just Jenda won a G2 not so long ago. And of course there is also the unforgettable Zardana.
Anyway, I maintain that the concept of key races doesn't apply here. The only two who gave her a race were St Trinians and Switch. None of the two have come back yet.
I didn't say I would use that in isolation. In the case of the Woodward, for example, those horses were running well coming into the Woodward and ran well that day. Obviously, for whatever reason, the horses weren't the same after. If there was no history of good races before that day, I would look skeptically at the race.
I would hardly say St. T and Switch are the only horses to give her a race this year, but to each his own.
andymays
10-12-2010, 10:10 AM
Apparently, somewhat off the mark. Look, this year's BC is going to be real race horses, going in real horse races, on real dirt. Surely, that will make all of the difference in the world.
Sure, many in the crowd will bet Zenyatta, just because she has managed to win 19 horse races in a row. But, these are the great unwashed, what do they know about handicapping a horse race? Hell, these people refuse to recognize how slow Zenyatta is, and that it is only the artificial surface that has been enabling her to win.
Sure, this is a large crowd of unwashed, and most of them will step up to wager their $2, but I doubt that will even show up in the pool against the kind of major money that the "great handicapper" and his legions of followers will be wagering on the fastest horse.
All serious horseplayers know that the fastest horse always wins on real dirt. And, some of the most real dirt in the entire world is found right there in Louisville, KY. Hell, back in '73, two horses broke the 10f record in the same race. How did they do that? The realest of real dirt, that's how.
Sure, we all know that poly has propelled Zenyatta to 17 of her 19 wins, but she is just one horse. Look at how many horses have been propelled to their greatest performance by Churchill Downs real dirt.
Certainly, this is one huge factor that the un-sophisticated Zenyatta fan is completely unaware of. But, the "great handicapper" has been onto this cutting edge knowledge for 40 years. And, he's been telling people about it the whole time. Just look at the record, here is a man that knows about real race horses running 10f on real dirt at Churchill Downs.
Yeah, the morning line guy might make Zenyatta the favorite because of the same uninformed sentimentality, but everybody knows what idiots those guys are when it comes to making a "proper" morning line. Surely, the uncalculable swarms of serious handicappers will override that as they pound the fastest horse down to 6/5.
Keep in mind that the "whales" will likely be right there too, because they are also "serious handicappers".
Then, it is most likely that the majority of Zenyatta zealots will back down to show, especially since the "real dirt" thing has been getting explained to them for years now.
jdl
Classic cruel to standouts - ESPN
http://sports.espn.go.com/sports/horse/columns/story?columnist=plonk_jeremy&id=5674599
Excerpt:
History says it's rather rare to have a standout Breeders' Cup Classic favorite, but history has not met many mares like Zenyatta. Expect horseplayers to be all-in as Zenyatta aims for her 20th straight win without defeat in her Nov. 6 career finale.
FenceBored
10-12-2010, 11:13 AM
Santa Anita Starts Surface Replacement
http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/59309/santa-anita-starts-surface-replacement
Regarding that, as a service to our friends who love the synthetic tracks (especially SA's Pro-Ride), here's a photo from the Bloodhorse of the process and some music to listen to while viewing it.
http://www.bloodhorse.com/images/content/SantaAnitaResurface2010CourtesySA298.jpg (http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/59309/santa-anita-starts-surface-replacement)
SY0z-BKhefY
I didn't say I would use that in isolation. In the case of the Woodward, for example, those horses were running well coming into the Woodward and ran well that day. Obviously, for whatever reason, the horses weren't the same after. If there was no history of good races before that day, I would look skeptically at the race.
I would hardly say St. T and Switch are the only horses to give her a race this year, but to each his own.
Who else did? I think Rinterval could have done that stretch 100 times over and still not have won. Who do you have in mind if not Rinterval?
Regarding that, as a service to our friends who love the synthetic tracks (especially SA's Pro-Ride), here's a photo from the Bloodhorse of the process and some music to listen to while viewing it.
http://www.bloodhorse.com/images/content/SantaAnitaResurface2010CourtesySA298.jpg (http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/59309/santa-anita-starts-surface-replacement)
SY0z-BKhefY
I think it's a dumb decision. I am not going to be as childish as some as not bet it because I don't like the surface, but I certainly have low hopes for it. It's a step back for California racing. The last few years will be seen as a good time for Californian horses imo - at least when it comes to producing sound, versatile horses who could dominate the national divisions as well the local scene. Just my opinion.
andymays
10-12-2010, 01:06 PM
I think it's a dumb decision. I am not going to be as childish as some as not bet it because I don't like the surface, but I certainly have low hopes for it. It's a step back for California racing. The last few years will be seen as a good time for Californian horses imo - at least when it comes to producing sound, versatile horses who could dominate the national divisions as well the local scene. Just my opinion.
Pro Ride Rejected! :ThmbUp: :D
PaceAdvantage
10-12-2010, 05:52 PM
I mean look at all the mocking threads and posts revolving around Zenyatta, it far outweighs any accolades around here. It's beyond an obsession with several folks here.How many mocking threads would you say have been created in the last 30 days?
PaceAdvantage
10-12-2010, 05:55 PM
If Zenyatta wins, nobody will be calling Lucky or Blame 'great horses' either.Is that some sort of requirement?
I never recall writing that Zenyatta must beat some "great horses" in order to be worthy of the accolades she currently generates.
Just meet and beat the best out there at the moment. She did it last year, but the BC Classic over synthetics still left question marks for me. Much like it would a European, if one of their top runners won a big race over a surface other than turf.
Is that some sort of requirement?
I never recall writing that Zenyatta must beat some "great horses" in order to be worthy of the accolades she currently generates.
Just meet and beat the best out there at the moment. She did it last year, but the BC Classic over synthetics still left question marks for me. Much like it would a European, if one of their top runners won a big race over a surface other than turf.
Whether it's a requirement or not is not the point. I'm just highlighting the fact that whatever she beats will never be good enough for some. For example you don't think that beating subsequent group 1 winners Twice Over, Gio Ponti, Richard's Kid, Girolamo, Awesome Gem, Rip Van Winkle is that meaningful because of the surface. I'd say that even bats are less blind than that, but that is only a suspicion.
PaceAdvantage
10-12-2010, 06:10 PM
Whether it's a requirement or not is not the point. I'm just highlighting the fact that whatever she beats will never be good enough for some. For example you don't think that beating subsequent group 1 winners Twice Over, Gio Ponti, Richard's Kid, Girolamo, Awesome Gem, Rip Van Winkle is that meaningful because of the surface. I'd say that even bats are less blind than that, but that is only a suspicion.Notice how I answered you with no hint of insult or sarcasm or whatever, and you come back at me with this junk about bats?
Twice Over - Turf Horse
Gio Ponti - Turf Horse
Girolamo (25-1 and last), Awesome Gem (52-1 and seventh) and Rip Van Winkle (10th) didn't even lift a hoof in the 2009 BC Classic and really aren't worth mentioning. Someone with little knowledge might come away with the thought that Zenyatta was somehow responsible for their poor showing.
Notice how I answered you with no hint of insult or sarcasm or whatever, and you come back at me with this junk about bats?
Twice Over - Turf Horse
Gio Ponti - Turf Horse
Girolamo (25-1 and last), Awesome Gem (52-1 and seventh) and Rip Van Winkle (10th) didn't even lift a hoof in the 2009 BC Classic and really aren't worth mentioning. Someone with little knowledge might come away with the thought that Zenyatta was somehow responsible for their poor showing.
No, I say that this was a very deep group 1 race that was won by an exceptional horse. There weren't any excuses imo, apart from Girolamo who clearly isn't a classic distance horse. They all had a fair chance, including the high class grinder Summer Bird who ran a very similar race to all his others, they all lost to the champ. I say credit where credit is due. It was simply awesome. It was great.
No, I say that this was a very deep group 1 race that was won by an exceptional horse. There weren't any excuses imo, apart from Girolamo who clearly isn't a classic distance horse. They all had a fair chance, including the high class grinder Summer Bird who ran a very similar race to all his others, they all lost to the champ. I say credit where credit is due. It was simply awesome. It was great.
Again, pretend surface doesn't matter.
If this were true, why exactly is Gio Ponti being considered for the Classic? It is because he can greatly enhance his stud value with a placing on DIRT, just like Giant's Causeway and Sakhee. Wait, didn't he already place on "dirt" in the Classic last year? Seems breeders aren't interested in that aspect of his record. I wonder why?
FenceBored
10-12-2010, 06:57 PM
No, I say that this was a very deep group 1 race that was won by an exceptional horse. There weren't any excuses imo, apart from Girolamo who clearly isn't a classic distance horse. They all had a fair chance, including the high class grinder Summer Bird who ran a very similar race to all his others, they all lost to the champ. I say credit where credit is due. It was simply awesome. It was great.
There weren't any excuses apart from Girolamo? :confused:
Perhaps you could watch the race again and pay particular attention to Einstein. Rip Van Winkle carried him right out of the race when that one stopped. I'd call that an excuse.
There weren't any excuses apart from Girolamo? :confused:
Perhaps you could watch the race again and pay particular attention to Einstein. Rip Van Winkle carried him right out of the race when that one stopped. I'd call that an excuse.
Please don't let facts get in the way of a good fairy tale.
Again, pretend surface doesn't matter.
If this were true, why exactly is Gio Ponti being considered for the Classic? It is because he can greatly enhance his stud value with a placing on DIRT, just like Giant's Causeway and Sakhee. Wait, didn't he already place on "dirt" in the Classic last year? Seems breeders aren't interested in that aspect of his record. I wonder why?
That is more than a bit speculative. I personally don't expect him in the Classic.
Please don't let facts get in the way of a good fairy tale.
:D
The fact that Einstein was caught flat-footed and suffered the trouble that many tiring horse undergo when they are dropping out of the race? He was in the same position as Zenyatta at the quarter pole and ended half a furlong behind her at the wire.
It's good to be informed of little nuances like these, they're so easy to miss.
FenceBored
10-13-2010, 07:12 AM
:D
The fact that Einstein was caught flat-footed and suffered the trouble that many tiring horse undergo when they are dropping out of the race? He was in the same position as Zenyatta at the quarter pole and ended half a furlong behind her at the wire.
It's good to be informed of little nuances like these, they're so easy to miss.
Seeing as how you're still missing it, I guess it is.
That is more than a bit speculative. I personally don't expect him in the Classic.
Whether he goes in the Classic or not, it is really the only way to increase his value as a stallion. Why would that be?
Maybe he is ducking Goldivoka?
FenceBored
10-13-2010, 10:02 AM
Maybe he is ducking Goldivoka?
Ya gotta feel for them.
Go in the Mile to duck Zenyatta you get Goldikova.
Go in the Classic to duck Goldikova, you get Zenyatta.
Can't get the 12f in the Turf against top-class horses.
Won't let him in the F&M Turf.
So where does that leave him?
Dirt Mile or Turf Sprint?
Ya gotta feel for them.
Go in the Mile to duck Zenyatta you get Goldikova.
Go in the Classic to duck Goldikova, you get Zenyatta.
Can't get the 12f in the Turf against top-class horses.
Won't let him in the F&M Turf.
So where does that leave him?
Dirt Mile or Turf Sprint?
I've never known the owners of Gio Ponti to duck anybody.
They said at Arlington 'let's all meet at Santa Anita for the Classic', and kept their word.
I think it will be the Mile.
Whether he goes in the Classic or not, it is really the only way to increase his value as a stallion. Why would that be?
Why would entering him in the Classic increase his stud value? Are you saying he's going to run well in it?
the little guy
10-13-2010, 12:21 PM
Why would entering him in the Classic increase his stud value? Are you saying he's going to run well in it?
This has to be an act. Nobody that could even find a horse racing message board could be as ill-informed as you....let alone someone who claims to know something about the game.
By the way, how's your handicapping contest going?
Robert Fischer
10-13-2010, 12:50 PM
look, this "overland" attack on Gio Ponti's effort in the 2009 is nearly as silly as trying to pretend that Gio Ponti wouldn't dramatically increase his stud value with even another 2nd in the Classic on dirt at CD
When evaluating the quality of the 2009BC, It matters not whether SA-Pro Ride is GP's "best surface". That's silly.
What actually matters is how good GP actually ran in the 2009 classic.
Any good handicapper should be able to make a good enough judgment from simply firing up the replay. (youtube has 720HD available) and watching GP exclusively. If you are even a decent visual handicapper you should be able to tell whether or not GP ran a race with the quality of a typical winning classic race.
Then once you have made that estimate, you can determine an estimate of how good Z ran in that race. It DOES NOT MATTER if GP would have preffered a mile on the turf at Keeneland!:lol: All that matters is how good GP actually ran in the classic.
My opinion on how good GP actually ran is also irrelevant, but since i'm spelling out what seems to be an obvious point - I think he ran a GI or GII winning contention type of race. I think he actually-ran very good, but it wasn't a huge effort by any means. Again the specifics of my estimate don't matter HOWEVER- because I "estimated" GP's performance as such - I can then usefully apply GIOPONTI in one method of estimating Zenyatta ran in that race. Hint- it's gonna be just slightly better than my GP-estimate.
"Favorite Trip" be damned
This has to be an act. Nobody that could even find a horse racing message board could be as ill-informed as you....let alone someone who claims to know something about the game.
By the way, how's your handicapping contest going?
You have to explain to me how entering him will increase his value. It will if he wins or runs really well, but someone needs to explain to me why just entering him would. Do breeders get extra money for just entering their horse in the Classic over dirt, even if the horse runs poorly?
I am very excited about hearing your or CJ's answer.
Dahoss9698
10-13-2010, 03:03 PM
You have to explain to me how entering him will increase his value. It will if he wins or runs really well, but someone needs to explain to me why just entering him would. Do breeders get extra money for just entering their horse in the Classic over dirt, even if the horse runs poorly?
I am very excited about hearing your or CJ's answer.
CJ never said just entering him will increase his value. Here was what he said initially.
If this were true, why exactly is Gio Ponti being considered for the Classic? It is because he can greatly enhance his stud value with a placing on DIRT, just like Giant's Causeway and Sakhee.
To which you responded you didn't expect to see him in the Classic. CJ responded with,
Whether he goes in the Classic or not, it is really the only way to increase his value as a stallion.
This is basic reading comprehension. You should spend less time posting gibberish and more time reading. You might learn a few things.
the little guy
10-13-2010, 03:14 PM
CJ never said just entering him will increase his value. Here was what he said initially.
If this were true, why exactly is Gio Ponti being considered for the Classic? It is because he can greatly enhance his stud value with a placing on DIRT, just like Giant's Causeway and Sakhee.
To which you responded you didn't expect to see him in the Classic. CJ responded with,
Whether he goes in the Classic or not, it is really the only way to increase his value as a stallion.
This is basic reading comprehension. You should spend less time posting gibberish and more time reading. You might learn a few things.
The whole thing has to be an act.
CJ never said just entering him will increase his value. Here was what he said initially.
If this were true, why exactly is Gio Ponti being considered for the Classic? It is because he can greatly enhance his stud value with a placing on DIRT, just like Giant's Causeway and Sakhee.
To which you responded you didn't expect to see him in the Classic. CJ responded with,
Whether he goes in the Classic or not, it is really the only way to increase his value as a stallion.
This is basic reading comprehension. You should spend less time posting gibberish and more time reading. You might learn a few things.
Sorry but that is nonsense.
What I'm hinting at is that scenario analysis is required.
Scenario A: goes to the Classic and wins or runs very well
Scenario B: goes to the Classic and wins or runs poorly
Scenario C: he goes to the Mile and wins (beating Goldikova, Paco Boy)
Scenario D: he goes to the Mile and runs poorly
Scenario E: he goes to the Turf and wins (beating Workforce)
Scenario F: he goes to the Turf and runs poorly
Scenario G: he doesn't run in any of them
....
Each scenario has its own probability, its own change in expected breeding value. To suggest that he can't increase his breeding with scenario C or E is something that I need explaining by you, CJ or - ideally - TLG. Scenario C & E would greatly increase his value imo. It would make his American turf form worth a lot more from a European point of view.
By the way, to do the exercise 'what is his future breeding value' without taking probabilities into account is an approach that I don't recommend.
the little guy
10-13-2010, 03:56 PM
Sorry but that is nonsense.
What I'm hinting at is that scenario analysis is required.
Scenario A: goes to the Classic and wins or runs very well
Scenario B: goes to the Classic and wins or runs poorly
Scenario C: he goes to the Mile and wins (beating Goldikova, Paco Boy)
Scenario D: he goes to the Mile and runs poorly
Scenario E: he goes to the Turf and wins (beating Workforce)
Scenario F: he goes to the Turf and runs poorly
Scenario G: he doesn't run in any of them
....
Each scenario has its own probability, its own change in expected breeding value. To suggest that he can't increase his breeding with scenario C or E is something that I need explaining by you, CJ or - ideally - TLG. Scenario C & E would greatly increase his value imo. It would make his American turf form worth a lot more from a European point of view.
By the way, to do the exercise 'what is his future breeding value' without taking probabilities into account is an approach that I don't recommend.
Once again, regardless of what you " think, " you know very little about horse racing from a business perspective ( among other perspectives ). It isn't even a discussion to be honest.
Just so you are clear, a win in either the BC Turf Mile or the BC Turf might enhance his value by a couple million bucks, while even a placing in this BC Classic on dirt could well enhance it by ten million dollars. Because you don't understand, or know this, doesn't change it. Much like your ignorance about Godolphin's stallion expenditures, your lack of knowledge here is substantial. I get it, you don't want to learn. Good for you.
Once again, regardless of what you " think, " you know very little about horse racing from a business perspective ( among other perspectives ). It isn't even a discussion to be honest.
Just so you are clear, a win in either the BC Turf Mile or the BC Turf might enhance his value by a couple million bucks, while even a placing in this BC Classic on dirt could well enhance it by ten million dollars. Because you don't understand, or know this, doesn't change it. Much like your ignorance about Godolphin's stallion expenditures, your lack of knowledge here is substantial. I get it, you don't want to learn. Good for you.
Dude i just said I wouldn't do this without taking probabilities into account. To ignore them is a very bad idea.
Furthermore, the discussion was clearly about possibilities of increasing his breeding value (see dahoss' post). I am still waiting to find out why the Classic is the only way to go.
I really - I mean really - want you to teach me why beating Goldi or Workforce wouldn't accomplish that.
the little guy
10-13-2010, 04:27 PM
Dude i just said I wouldn't do this without taking probabilities into account. To ignore them is a very bad idea.
Furthermore, the discussion was clearly about possibilities of increasing his breeding value (see dahoss' post). I am still waiting to find out why the Classic is the only way to go.
I really - I mean really - want you to teach me why beating Goldi or Workforce wouldn't accomplish that.
You can't be taught.
I understand expected values and even understand them in this case. However, I don't think CJ was discussing it in that term. His only real chance of having serious value as a Stallion is to run him in the Classic regardless of his chances. That doesn't mean they should, or will, choose that path. It is independant of that discussion.
Cardus
10-13-2010, 04:52 PM
Sorry but that is nonsense.
What I'm hinting at is that scenario analysis is required.
Scenario A: goes to the Classic and wins or runs very well
Scenario B: goes to the Classic and wins or runs poorly
Scenario C: he goes to the Mile and wins (beating Goldikova, Paco Boy)
Scenario D: he goes to the Mile and runs poorly
Scenario E: he goes to the Turf and wins (beating Workforce)
Scenario F: he goes to the Turf and runs poorly
Scenario G: he doesn't run in any of them
....
Each scenario has its own probability, its own change in expected breeding value. To suggest that he can't increase his breeding with scenario C or E is something that I need explaining by you, CJ or - ideally - TLG. Scenario C & E would greatly increase his value imo. It would make his American turf form worth a lot more from a European point of view.
By the way, to do the exercise 'what is his future breeding value' without taking probabilities into account is an approach that I don't recommend.
Scenario H: You've got to be kidding.
You can't be taught.
I understand expected values and even understand them in this case. However, I don't think CJ was discussing it in that term. His only real chance of having serious value as a Stallion is to run him in the Classic regardless of his chances. That doesn't mean they should, or will, choose that path. It is independant of that discussion.
Do you really mean that? Imagine if he beat Golidkova or Workforce (highest rated Epsom Derby winner ever).
Scenario H: You've got to be kidding.
Why?
the little guy
10-13-2010, 04:59 PM
Do you really mean that? Imagine if he beat Golidkova or Workforce (highest rated Epsom Derby winner ever).
Like I said, you really don't understand this.
Like I said, you really don't understand this.
You keep repeating yourself, but you also keep ignoring the same arguments.
Dahoss9698
10-13-2010, 05:13 PM
Furthermore, the discussion was clearly about possibilities of increasing his breeding value (see dahoss' post). I am still waiting to find out why the Classic is the only way to go.
Doesn't this game get old after a while? You misinterpret something that only you could. Someone explains to you that you misinterpreted it and then you play dumb.
It was fun for a long time, but how many times can you be wrong before you realize you are pretty clueless?
Doesn't this game get old after a while? You misinterpret something that only you could. Someone explains to you that you misinterpreted it and then you play dumb.
It was fun for a long time, but how many times can you be wrong before you realize you are pretty clueless?
It might take a while in this case. Explain to me, what am I clueless about here. I am really curious. Be specific please.
the little guy
10-13-2010, 05:20 PM
You keep repeating yourself, but you also keep ignoring the same arguments.
There is no money in the US breeding industry for turf stallions. This has been proven. Because you don't know this, or choose to ignore it, is of no interest to me.
Dahoss9698
10-13-2010, 05:25 PM
It might take a while in this case. Explain to me, what am I clueless about here. I am really curious. Be specific please.
Everything.
Anyone with eyes can see you misinterpreted what CJ said. Like the time you had to be explained over and over and over again about that Beyer article about Dirt fillies.
His turf form is already well established. The 12 furlong race isn't even an option, so it's a waste of time to discuss it. They are either going in the mile or Classic. He is proven on turf from a mile to 10-11 furlongs. On dirt he's a question mark. If he performs poorly in the Classic, nothing will change. If he wins the Mile, it won't really change either. He's already a good turf horse. He has grade 1's and eclipse awards to show that.
But, if he can somehow run well in the Classic it will enhance his value a lot, by proving he can run on dirt as well. I don't think he has a shot in the Classic, but from their perspective I can see why they are considering it.
Again, basic stuff.
There is no money in the US breeding industry for turf stallions. This has been proven. Because you don't know this, or choose to ignore it, is of no interest to me.
So if he is worth relatively little as a turfer, why would you say that he won't be worth more if he beats a global star like Goldikova.
Are arguing my case now?
Everything.
Anyone with eyes can see you misinterpreted what CJ said. Like the time you had to be explained over and over and over again about that Beyer article about Dirt fillies.
His turf form is already well established. The 12 furlong race isn't even an option, so it's a waste of time to discuss it. They are either going in the mile or Classic. He is proven on turf from a mile to 10-11 furlongs. On dirt he's a question mark. If he performs poorly in the Classic, nothing will change. If he wins the Mile, it won't really change either. He's already a good turf horse. He has grade 1's and eclipse awards to show that.
But, if he can somehow run well in the Classic it will enhance his value a lot, by proving he can run on dirt as well. I don't think he has a shot in the Classic, but from their perspective I can see why they are considering it.
Again, basic stuff.
The only point I have argued about is whether there are other ways to increase his breeding value than placing in the Classic. According to you, winning the Mile (beating Goldikova) wouldn't. I beg to differ. I won't call you clueless like you called me, but I still reckon you could raise some eyebrows with that theory.
Cardus
10-13-2010, 05:55 PM
The only point I have argued about is whether there are other ways to increase his breeding value than placing in the Classic. According to you, winning the Mile (beating Goldikova) wouldn't. I beg to differ. I won't call you clueless like you called me, but I still reckon you could raise some eyebrows with that theory.
His value has been established as a turf stallion. Running in the Mile neither increases nor decreases his value; he already has a prodigious turf resume.
Running at his best distance, on dirt, in the hopes that he takes well to dirt, opens up a lot more possibilities for him as a stallion.
the little guy
10-13-2010, 06:05 PM
So if he is worth relatively little as a turfer, why would you say that he won't be worth more if he beats a global star like Goldikova.
Are arguing my case now?
You're certainly doing a fine job of arguing your case that you're a trolling asshole. I can argue that for you as well....but you seem to do a better job than anyone else can.
You're certainly doing a fine job of arguing your case that you're a trolling asshole. I can argue that for you as well....but you seem to do a better job than anyone else can.
Classy response from a guy who has been proven wrong using his own reasoning.
His value has been established as a turf stallion. Running in the Mile neither increases nor decreases his value; he already has a prodigious turf resume.
Running at his best distance, on dirt, in the hopes that he takes well to dirt, opens up a lot more possibilities for him as a stallion.
At no point have I denied that doing well on dirt would increase his breeding value.
I do disagree with what you call a prodigious turf resume, though. As much as I like GP and like to think he is world class, his turf resume lacks a big name that he has beaten. In his defense there aren't many around in the US, but that doesn't change anything. If he were to beat or come very close to Goldikova, it would earn him a lot of respect. Just my opinion.
Cardus
10-13-2010, 06:21 PM
At no point have I denied that doing well on dirt would increase his breeding value.
I do disagree with what you call a prodigious turf resume, though. As much as I like GP and like to think he is world class, his turf resume lacks a big name that he has beaten. In his defense there aren't many around in the US, but that doesn't change anything. If he were to beat or come very close to Goldikova, it would earn him a lot of respect. Just my opinion.
He has already earned a lot of respect as a turf runner, I would like to think.
He has already earned a lot of respect as a turf runner, I would like to think.
I'm not knocking him, no way he is one of my favorites, but I think beating Goldikova and Paco Boy is a lot more significant than beating Just As Well, Musketier or Marsh Side.
Do you really mean that? Imagine if he beat Golidkova or Workforce (highest rated Epsom Derby winner ever).
It really wouldn't help much, not near as much as a placing in the Classic on dirt would. I'm not saying I think he would place on the dirt, I don't, but I understand why they might go that route.
The whole point is that his placing in the BC last year, because it was on synthetics, did virtually nothing to increase his value as a stallion.
It really wouldn't help much, not near as much as a placing in the Classic on dirt would. I'm not saying I think he would place on the dirt, I don't, but I understand why they might go that route.
The whole point is that his placing in the BC last year, because it was on synthetics, did virtually nothing to increase his value as a stallion.
It really is fascinating that apparently nobody here thinks that beating top Euro's would do all that much for his breeding value.
the little guy
10-13-2010, 08:38 PM
It really is fascinating that apparently nobody here thinks that beating top Euro's would do all that much for his breeding value.
It's not a question of " thinking. " It is a question of knowing.
However, it is certainly nothing new around here that you think you know things that are utterly false.
It really is fascinating that apparently nobody here thinks that beating top Euro's would do all that much for his breeding value.
What is fascinating is you think it would. How many American horses have beaten the top Euros on turf in the BC, and how are they doing at stud? Riddle me that...
What is fascinating is you think it would. How many American horses have beaten the top Euros on turf in the BC, and how are they doing at stud? Riddle me that...
The question was do you not think that beating Goldi can increase his breeding value. You and DaHoss clearly don't, I obviously do. It's an interesting contrast of opinions. From my perspective, I would say that beating Goldikova would be a massive boost to what is essentially a turf resume. This may sound a bit blunt, but I expect that foreign observers would take his previous turf form a lot more seriously if he could beat a top Euro.
Headbanger
10-14-2010, 09:57 AM
The question was do you not think that beating Goldi can increase his breeding value. You and DaHoss clearly don't, I obviously do. It's an interesting contrast of opinions. From my perspective, I would say that beating Goldikova would be a massive boost to what is essentially a turf resume. This may sound a bit blunt, but I expect that foreign observers would take his previous turf form a lot more seriously if he could beat a top Euro.
I am going to be nice and try and explain this to you. Here in America there is very little interest in breeding for turf. If Gio Ponti goes in the BC Turf or BC Mile no matter what he ends up doing in either race, we have already established he's a very good turf horse. The type of horse that breeders really have little interest in breeding to because many breeders look to sell at yearling or 2YO sales. Turf stallions are mainly breed to race compared to breed to sell, and frankly that's not the way most breeders look to go. Frankly it doesn't matter what he does because he's already got more than enough G1s and GSWs on the grass. The only place this horse is going to stand as a stud in is the United States because Europe doesn't want a horse to stand stud who never won a Group race in Europe no matter what his American record is. The only way for his owners to increase his stud potential is for him to win or place in the Classic on the dirt to show that the horse was of G1 quality on the dirt and not just Turf/Synthetic. It's why Godolphin runs Arc winners in the Classic. Apparently it's easy to see...for everyone but yourself. He'll gain more as a stallion by running 2nd or 3rd in the Classic than by winning the Mile or Turf, because breeders don't give a shit about turf runners in America.
I am going to be nice and try and explain this to you. Here in America there is very little interest in breeding for turf. If Gio Ponti goes in the BC Turf or BC Mile no matter what he ends up doing in either race, we have already established he's a very good turf horse. The type of horse that breeders really have little interest in breeding to because many breeders look to sell at yearling or 2YO sales. Turf stallions are mainly breed to race compared to breed to sell, and frankly that's not the way most breeders look to go. Frankly it doesn't matter what he does because he's already got more than enough G1s and GSWs on the grass. The only place this horse is going to stand as a stud in is the United States because Europe doesn't want a horse to stand stud who never won a Group race in Europe no matter what his American record is. The only way for his owners to increase his stud potential is for him to win or place in the Classic on the dirt to show that the horse was of G1 quality on the dirt and not just Turf/Synthetic. It's why Godolphin runs Arc winners in the Classic. Apparently it's easy to see...for everyone but yourself. He'll gain more as a stallion by running 2nd or 3rd in the Classic than by winning the Mile or Turf, because breeders don't give a shit about turf runners in America.
Yes I appreciate what you are saying, which is in essence the detailed explanation of earlier posts by others. I'm being very repetitive but I personally disagree: it would ensure that his turf resume is taken seriously by (at least) foreign buyers. We can keep disagreeing about this and never come to a conclusion as it's all very hypothetical. It's worth a poll: 'would Gio Ponti's future stud fee increase if he beat Goldikova?'.
Yes I appreciate what you are saying, which is in essence the detailed explanation of earlier posts by others. I'm being very repetitive but I personally disagree: it would ensure that his turf resume is taken seriously by (at least) foreign buyers. We can keep disagreeing about this and never come to a conclusion as it's all very hypothetical. It's worth a poll: 'would Gio Ponti's future stud fee increase if he beat Goldikova?'.
It is your opinion, but it is flawed. Do you have other examples of horses that won the BC Turf, or Mile, beating Euros, that suddenly were high dollar stallions? Manila? Artie Schiller? War Chant?
It is your opinion, but it is flawed. Do you have other examples of horses that won the BC Turf, or Mile, beating Euros, that suddenly were high dollar stallions? Manila? Artie Schiller? War Chant?
Nice try. It's about an increase full stop. I never denied that a top effort in the Classic would lead to the biggest increase.
I specifically said that you need to look at probabilities. Say he is worth 3 million more if he beats Goldi, and worth 6 million more if he places in the Classic. That's great what are the chances of that happening? I'd say his chances of beating Goldi are more than twice as high as placing in the Classic (make it 20% vs 5%). The expected value would therefore be higher (according to me) if you ran him in the Mile.
Anyway if you want to go down that road, you should provide your own estimated probabilities and changes in breeding value.
Nice try. It's about an increase full stop. I never denied that a top effort in the Classic would lead to the biggest increase.
I specifically said that you need to look at probabilities. Say he is worth 3 million more if he beats Goldi, and worth 6 million more if he places in the Classic. That's great what are the chances of that happening? I'd say his chances of beating Goldi are more than twice as high as placing in the Classic (make it 20% vs 5%). The expected value would therefore be higher (according to me) if you ran him in the Mile.
Anyway if you want to go down that road, you should provide your own estimated probabilities and changes in breeding value.
Well, as has been stated, I don't think there will be much if any increase by winning on turf again. He is already an Eclipse winner on turf.
Again, the whole point was not about a few dollars on this horse. The point was the way breeders look at synthetics. The Classic last year didn't help him because it was on rubber...period. That is all I'm addressing here.
Well, as has been stated, I don't think there will be much if any increase by winning on turf again. He is already an Eclipse winner on turf.
Again, the whole point was not about a few dollars on this horse. The point was the way breeders look at synthetics. The Classic last year didn't help him because it was on rubber...period. That is all I'm addressing here.
Just out of interest, how do you rate his chances in the classic?
Just out of interest, how do you rate his chances in the classic?
Slim and none, but it doesn't matter how I rate them.
Do you refuse to admit breeders are highly skeptical of synthetic horses? I have to assume that since you refuse to address the topic, the point of the original post I made.
Robert Fischer
10-14-2010, 10:43 AM
The question was do you not think that beating Goldi can increase his breeding value.
lets be honest Gio Ponti's pedigree is not hugely popular for a real turf horse. ToC has gained some respect and there are some useful turfers around. I don't know if any have been very tough at the 1.5 Classic distance, but maybe 6-9furlongs. In some ways GP is just seen as a nice horse and not a world standout turfer. The only way for him to boost his turf stud value significantly would be to impress enough that foreign interests would stand him elsewhere, and even if that happened(highly unlikely), it still may not be for much more than he'd be as his expected moderate price.
Nice try. It's about an increase full stop. I never denied that a top effort in the Classic would lead to the biggest increase.
what??
:bang::bang::bang:
c'mon dude.
lets be honest Gio Ponti's pedigree is not hugely popular for a real turf horse. ToC has gained some respect and there are some useful turfers around. I don't know if any have been very tough at the 1.5 Classic distance, but maybe 6-9furlongs. In some ways GP is just seen as a nice horse and not a world standout turfer. The only way for him to boost his turf stud value significantly would be to impress enough that foreign interests would stand him elsewhere, and even if that happened(highly unlikely), it still may not be for much more than he'd be as his expected moderate price.
what??
:bang::bang::bang:
c'mon dude.
What's the banging about?
Slim and none, but it doesn't matter how I rate them.
Do you refuse to admit breeders are highly skeptical of synthetic horses? I have to assume that since you refuse to address the topic, the point of the original post I made.
I am sure that they are right now, yes.
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