Stronach's Quadruple Quadfecta a bad gimmick bet. Ya Think?

[andymays]

http://www.drf.com/news/stronachs-quadruple-quadfecta-bad-gimmick-bet

Excerpt:

Eyes were dutifully rolled and everyone promptly forgot about the QQ until this past week, when MI Developments officials said they were moving to implement the fanciful wager as soon as this winter at Gulfstream and perhaps Santa Anita.

As best as anyone can tell , the Quadruple Quadfecta would require bettors to select four superfecta outcomes in advance, a challenge that makes hitting the Powerball lottery, much less a pick six, look like child’s play. In a 10-horse field, there are 5,040 possible superfecta combinations (10x9x8x7). Square that and picking two cold supers in advance is 25,401,600-1 shot. Leg 3 increases that another 5,000-fold to around 125 billion to 1, and the final super outcome sends it into the trillions. Good luck.

[The_Knight_Sky]

http://www.drf.com/news/stronachs-quadruple-quadfecta-bad-gimmick-bet




(at this time) There is no author listed along side that article.

Who wrote it?

[andymays]

(at this time) There is no author listed along side that article.

Who wrote it?

Don't know.

[Steve 'StatMan']

Article notes from New York, but no name in the article. However, to the right on the page, I see Steve Klein's DRF Best Bet for Keeneland for today Oct 8th. For now, I think he's the author of the article.

He showed good restraint! A quadruple superfecta will likely never ever be hit, with general odds over a Trillion to 1. Sure better be some consolation payoffs, but it is serious hard enough to hit one superfecta, two was what I thought they were going for, and that's darn near impossible. Three would be insane, and Four is either sadistically cruel or completely nieve! Play it once for the smallest amount, you're adventurous. Play it a second time or with multiple combos, and not knowing if anything other than a perfect 4-of-4 gets paid, they might as well not print the ticket because you'll seriously never need to cash it.

[turfnsport]

Article notes from New York, but no name in the article. However, to the right on the page, I see Steve Klein's DRF Best Bet for Keeneland for today Oct 8th. For now, I think he's the author of the article.


Not Klein, they always show those "best bets" randomly around the web site.

2/5 its Crist

[Pick6]

Unless the pool is seeded with house money this thing is never getting off the ground.

[rwwupl]

My view..

The racing managers are going ,again, in the wrong direction. The high takeout, hard to hit exotics are designed to benefit the "house" and those who take a percentage off the top.
That encourages those who have deep pockets and play multiple numbers when the pot is big enough... and the average customer can not compete,and he will go broke faster and not return. It tends to make smaller pools because the regular customers only have so much money to spend and they tap out quicker.

Handicapping is discounted and bows before the no thinking wheel,wheel wheel concept,big wallets against small wallets and taking away fair competition of one mans skill against another, creating another un level head start for some who know little and do not care about racing or the man to man contest of skill. Economic leverage defeats skill and the average customer is minimized, and our game suffers in the long term.

"Beancounters" are responsible for this ,not "Sportsmen" and our game continues down hill.

The Beancounters say the customers dream about a "Lifetime" score and that is what they want...I say send those to play the lottery and lets put Sportsmen in charge who understand horse racing the way it was meant to be and become viable again.

rwwupl

[The_Knight_Sky]

Not Klein, they always show those "best bets" randomly around the web site.

2/5 its Crist




Right.
I saw Dave Litfin on my page.

If this Quadfecta thing has any chance to be successful it will start at Lottery distribution points around the country and at a takeout rate that sells well among the lottery ticket purchasers.

At the typical 25% racing takeout rate, this clearly won't get the Average Joe Handicapper's heart-pumping. So I do agree with the basic premise of the article - whoever wrote it.

[InsideThePylons-MW]

That encourages those who have deep pockets and play multiple numbers when the pot is big enough... and the average customer can not compete,and he will go broke faster and not return.

The deep pockets will go broke on this one. No pockets are deep enough for this wager.

[chickenhead]

I know this is exactly what I've been hoping for. A pool with trillion - 1 fair odds and $8,432 in it. That is some pure wagering awesomeness right there.

If they carry over meet to meet it might be ok. Once it gets up to a billion dollars in a decade or so it'll create a lot of buzz.

[InsideThePylons-MW]

If they carry over meet to meet it might be ok. Once it gets up to a billion dollars in a decade or so it'll create a lot of buzz.

That's the problem. It will never get to a billion dollars.

The one thing that you can always count on in racing is that someone will figure out a way to get the money.

A tote system that uses a Commodore-Vic for security........jockeys/trainers that can make horses go forward or backward on command......etc. would be an almost automatic exploit for some and someone would be successful in this venture.

[Stillriledup]

http://www.drf.com/news/stronachs-quadruple-quadfecta-bad-gimmick-bet

Excerpt:

Eyes were dutifully rolled and everyone promptly forgot about the QQ until this past week, when MI Developments officials said they were moving to implement the fanciful wager as soon as this winter at Gulfstream and perhaps Santa Anita.

As best as anyone can tell , the Quadruple Quadfecta would require bettors to select four superfecta outcomes in advance, a challenge that makes hitting the Powerball lottery, much less a pick six, look like child’s play. In a 10-horse field, there are 5,040 possible superfecta combinations (10x9x8x7). Square that and picking two cold supers in advance is 25,401,600-1 shot. Leg 3 increases that another 5,000-fold to around 125 billion to 1, and the final super outcome sends it into the trillions. Good luck.


I love the your concept, but i think that your odds are wrong only because you're assuming that a person is going to only wager on one combination in each race.

If they insist on making the 4 races all 10 horse fields than i think very few people are going to play this bet and it may go years before its even hit one time.

I don't even know how one would PLAY this bet. How do you structure a QQ part wheel?

[tzipi]

A billion to one odds to hit a pool with no one playing it? Ridiculous bet. Even a set pot wouldn't mean much. It's a crapshoot. I'm glad these are the ideas their coming up with for racing :rolleyes:

[johnhannibalsmith]

...I don't even know how one would PLAY this bet...?

You'd hit the quick pick button a time or two or three, watch about two, three races, get bored, notice the game was another channel and forget all about playing the races. I think I get who this is geared towards, but I don't see how the structure leads to a return customer.

[andymays]

You'd hit the quick pick button a time or two or three, watch about two, three races, get bored, notice the game was another channel and forget all about playing the races. I think I get who this is geared towards, but I don't see how the structure leads to a return customer.

Everyone knows its a loser except Fab Frank. His people are scared to tell him anything and he wouldn't listen if they did.

[toussaud]

...the hell is this?


let me get this straight. you want me to wager in a pool, that i can't hit, and that's going to have less money in it becuase everyone knows you can't hit it lol?

you know, if this was a 10 cent wager, it wouldn't be the stupidest idea on earth. so what, 10 cents, you never now, i might get lucky. i often play 10 cent supers for S and G's, and have hit a few. but you know this isn't a 10 cent wager.

[Robert Fischer]

if your handicapping determines that you have a 3% chance of hitting each super straight, then its more like 1 out of 1.3Million for the quadfecto(if i did the math right .03^4 = 0.00000081 100million/81=1.3Million :)
still a dumb bet

[Horseplayersbet.com]

if your handicapping determines that you have a 3% chance of hitting each super straight, then its more like 1 out of 1.3Million for the quadfecto(if i did the math right .03^4 = 0.00000081 100million/81=1.3Million :)
still a dumb bet
A 3% chance of hitting a straight super??????? Maybe if their is a horse that can't be beat in a 9 horse race.

[Robert Fischer]

I could be off. :ThmbUp:

super isn't a big bet of mine with the rare exception of huge prices in dime-coverage situation.

[Horseplayersbet.com]

I could be off. :ThmbUp:

super isn't a big bet of mine with the rare exception of huge prices in dime-coverage situation.
I would say that I'm lucky to hit a super with a 4 horse box per two cards, and that includes 7 and 8 horse fields.

So lets say, if I box 4 horses, I might hit one out of 20, and it would be higher if we are talking 10 horse plus fields.
So .05 times 1/24 equals 2 out of 1000 to hit one straight super in a row. And it is probably 2 out of 10,000 for fields of 12 or more.

[Robert Fischer]

I would say that I'm lucky to hit a super with a 4 horse box per two cards, and that includes 7 and 8 horse fields.

So lets say, if I box 4 horses, I might hit one out of 20, and it would be higher if we are talking 10 horse plus fields.
So .05 times 1/24 equals 2 out of 1000 to hit one straight super in a row. And it is probably 2 out of 10,000 for fields of 12 or more.

sounds good.

safe to say most of the more "exotic" exotics are generally bad bets without both a carryover situation and a pretty good sized bankroll to offset the lower hit rates.

*but some like the lotto style plays :confused:

[keithw84]

I'm not defending the QQ by any means, but the odds listed, assuming roughly 5000-1 per super, seem a little off. Those odds assume all horses have equal chances of coming in at first, second, third, and fourth, but we know that "better" horses tend to finish in the top four spots more often.

As a result, I would guess that the average payout on supers for 10-horse races is less than $5000 on a dollar wager. On the other hand, you can have a superfecta in which three spots are chalky but the other is a huge longshot, and the payout is still really high as a result.

In that regard, picking superfectas is like predicting the NCAA Basketball tournament. Most of the time, you have to pick a few that don't "belong," but you have to pick the right ones.

[InsideThePylons-MW]

I'm not defending the QQ by any means, but the odds listed, assuming roughly 5000-1 per super, seem a little off. Those odds assume all horses have equal chances of coming in at first, second, third, and fourth, but we know that "better" horses tend to finish in the top four spots more often.

For anybody playing a quick pick, which is what racing is hoping for in huge quantity, the actual odds of hitting the bet with four 10 horse fields is over 645 TRILLION to one.

If someone played $1,000,000 in quick picks EVERY day, they would expect to hit the bet once appx. every 2 million YEARS!

[Horseplayersbet.com]

The average superfecta pays around $2000-$2500 for a buck. Add takeout and we can figure out the probability pretty easy.
So what are the chances of 1/3000*1/3000*1/3000*1/3000
I can't do this on my basic calculator. My scientific calculator went on the fritz around 28 years ago, and I didn't think I'd ever need to replace it.

[Irish Boy]

Didn't they do a double-triple in the early nineties that was pretty much impossible to hit? Don't see how a quadruple-quadruple would help.

[keithw84]

The average superfecta pays around $2000-$2500 for a buck. Add takeout and we can figure out the probability pretty easy.
So what are the chances of 1/3000*1/3000*1/3000*1/3000
I can't do this on my basic calculator. My scientific calculator went on the fritz around 28 years ago, and I didn't think I'd ever need to replace it.

So even at those odds, roughly 1 in 81 trillion... don't think I'll be changing my wagering patterns...

[Horseplayersbet.com]

So even at those odds, roughly 1 in 81 trillion... don't think I'll be changing my wagering patterns...
I honestly believe that this information would be news to Stronach. In other words, this is an ill conceived whim.

[rwwupl]

I honestly believe that this information would be news to Stronach. In other words, this is an ill conceived whim.


I think you are correct. ;)

[Stillriledup]

If you can do penny part wheels, you can hit it. Anything more than a 1 cent base, its going to be very, very difficult.

[stevem]

If it was up to me, I would make it a $1 base bet where you get 4 horses in each of the 4 races (4 horse box)
If you want to have 5 horses in 1 race it would cost $5
If you want to have 5 horses in 2 races it would cost $10
If you want to have 5 horses in 3 races it would cost $15
If you want to have 5 horses in 4 races it would cost $20.

No other options. Tickets will cost 1,5,10,15 or 20.

It would be on the last 4 races of the day since those are usually the fullest fields.

Obviously wouldnt reach 20 million, but would appeal to both actual handicappers and bingo style/quick pick players.

edit: Strange, could of swore I posted here before. I do lurk alot though

[InsideThePylons-MW]

If it was up to me, I would make it a $1 base bet where you get 4 horses in each of the 4 races (4 horse box)
If you want to have 5 horses in 1 race it would cost $5
If you want to have 5 horses in 2 races it would cost $10
If you want to have 5 horses in 3 races it would cost $15
If you want to have 5 horses in 4 races it would cost $20.

Who would ever bet anything but the $20 for 5 horses in 4 races?

[salty]

Why wouldn't they make it a ten cent super style bet?

I could pick some reasonably good coverage with $24 a race so that would only be $96 if it paid $10,000 then i just hit a hundred to one shot using 6 horses in 4 races where you know they all aren't going to be fields of more than 12. if its at santa anita i could probably have 3/4 of each feild covered only having to toss out one maybe two horses from each race.


If it is a one dollar base bet then well hey I hope you can afford the $1,000 dollar spin until you hit it.

Think about having to get 16 horses onto your ticket. They should have a guess the complete order of the Kentucky Derby bet next year.

[InsideThePylons-MW]

It seems obvious that many on here don't have any idea of how the bet works.

How the hell is the average track patron going to understand it?

[salty]

Actualy if there is a $20 milion dollar jackpot.

Do you realize that if theres only 5,040 combinations then who wouldn't spend $20,000 to win $20 million? So there obsiously won't be a Jackpot. In a pick 6 if it is two feilds of 8 one field of 7 one field of 6 and two feilds of 10 thats 6x7x8x8x10x10 a total $1 tickect cost of 268,800 which is not possible since its a $2 base wager which makes it over half a million to by an allxallxallxallxallxall pick six ticket in that average circumstance. Theres the problem in the bet, and the reason why it won't work out at all.

and who can't at least eliminate one or two horses out of ten horse races?

at a dollar that would only cost 6,720

what if its shorter feilds like 7x7x8x6

840+840+1680+360

cost $3,720

[InsideThePylons-MW]

and who can't at least eliminate one or two horses out of ten horse races?

at a dollar that would only cost 6,720

what if its shorter feilds like 7x7x8x6

840+840+1680+360

cost $3,720

It is 840x840x1680x360 cost $426,746,880,000

[fmolf]

didn't Maryland offer a double triple?.....A bettor selected a double triple bet in one race..... and if he hit that triple he... for every dollar he had on that winning combo he could select a triple combo in the next race ...If i remember you had to go to the windowexchange your ticket and play your combos on the next race.This was detailed in one of beyers books.....my memory is fleeting about it though.

[Horseplayersbet.com]

Actualy if there is a $20 milion dollar jackpot.

Do you realize that if theres only 5,040 combinations then who wouldn't spend $20,000 to win $20 million? So there obsiously won't be a Jackpot. In a pick 6 if it is two feilds of 8 one field of 7 one field of 6 and two feilds of 10 thats 6x7x8x8x10x10 a total $1 tickect cost of 268,800 which is not possible since its a $2 base wager which makes it over half a million to by an allxallxallxallxallxall pick six ticket in that average circumstance. Theres the problem in the bet, and the reason why it won't work out at all.

and who can't at least eliminate one or two horses out of ten horse races?

at a dollar that would only cost 6,720

what if its shorter feilds like 7x7x8x6

840+840+1680+360

cost $3,720
I think Frank Stronach used the same math. That is why he thought doing a triple superfecta would be too easy.

[Zman179]

didn't Maryland offer a double triple?.....A bettor selected a double triple bet in one race..... and if he hit that triple he... for every dollar he had on that winning combo he could select a triple combo in the next race ...If i remember you had to go to the windowexchange your ticket and play your combos on the next race.This was detailed in one of beyers books.....my memory is fleeting about it though.

The Laurel/Pimlico Double Triple (aka Twin Trifecta) was a $3 base wager comprised of the 3rd and 5th races. You would play the 3rd race first leg. If you hit, you would receive a payout (IIRC, the payout was based on 25% of the day's pool) and would then receive an exchange ticket on your 5th race picks. Winners of the 5th race would receive the carryover pool.

The pool would carryover if nobody hit the second leg, or if there were no perfect tickets in the first leg (the first leg would pay out on X-X-ALL).

During the 80's, it was their most popular wager.

I've always felt that a Twin Trifecta would be popular at NYRA.

[andymays]

Has anyone addressed the time it would take to do all the crap required to make the bet and complete it from start to finish?

[FenceBored]

Has anyone addressed the time it would take to do all the crap required to make the bet and complete it from start to finish?

{A man walks up to the window 15minutes to post in the GP 4th race}

"Ummm, I'd like to make a Quadrup...le ... Quadra...fecta bet for 50 cents, no make that a dime. Ahhh, starting in the 5th race, no starting in the 4th. Umm, let's see I'd like the 9 horse annnddd the 3 horse over the 9 and the 3 aaannnddd the 6 aannndd the 8 over the 3 and the 6 and the 8 aaannndd the 2 over the 9 and the 2 aaannndd the 7 aanndd the 5. Now in the 5th race I'd like ... "

{15 minutes later}

"Finally, in the last leg I'd like - "
"I'm sorry, sir. Wagering on the 4th race has closed."

That what you mean, Andy?

[andymays]

{A man walks up to the window 15minutes to post in the GP 4th race}

"Ummm, I'd like to make a Quadrup...le ... Quadra...fecta bet for 50 cents, no make that a dime. Ahhh, starting in the 5th race, no starting in the 4th. Umm, let's see I'd like the 9 horse annnddd the 3 horse over the 9 and the 3 aaannnddd the 6 aannndd the 8 over the 3 and the 6 and the 8 aaannndd the 2 over the 9 and the 2 aaannndd the 7 aanndd the 5. Now in the 5th race I'd like ... "

{15 minutes later}

"Finally, in the last leg I'd like - "
"I'm sorry, sir. Wagering on the 4th race has closed."

That what you mean, Andy?

Yes, more people will get shut out and get pissed off. The 10 cent supers cause enough havoc at the live track.

[Fager Fan]

Too much complaining here. If the quad quad doesn't work, then why not suggest what lottery-type payoff bet will work?

[Horseplayersbet.com]

Too much complaining here. If the quad quad doesn't work, then why not suggest what lottery-type payoff bet will work?
The one is Sweden works well. But it is available at all lottery kiosks. If racing can get a lottery style bet available at kiosks everywhere, it would work, as long as it can actually be won.

A national pick 7 or even pick 8 would go over OK if there are enough consolidation prizes (like regular lotteries do), for example, give a small prize for 5 winners, etc.

There needs to be an element of churn attached to it I believe.

[GatetoWire]

All of Frank's management team must be afraid to tell him when he tries to do something stupid.

I still laugh every time I go to Laurel Park and see the room on the main level where the Horse Wizards were set up.

If you are not familiar with this.....Frank decided to create a slot machine type self service betting machine. It was going revolutionize horse racing

He spent Millions building these things....built a whole room at Laurel to house them and got special approval from the state to allow them.

The thing was a complete flop.....no one ever used them...I would go to Laurel and the entire room was empty!!!!

Eventually the pulled the machines out put in tables and now you can watch NFL Football in the room on Sundays.

The same will happen with this....Frank really loves our sport but he has no clue what the the people want. He constantly comes up with hair brained ideas and the scary thing is that he has the money to try them out.

This is why we have a Gulfstream that is a shadow of what it should be with the new Grandstand and other crap that Frank built.

[andymays]

All of Frank's management team must be afraid to tell him when he tries to do something stupid.


Agree. That's what's been going on.

[Stillriledup]

"Weird" Father Frank and his Quadruple Qunitefecta or whatever the heck its called. The FINAL SLAP.

You, as a California horseplayer, should be mortified at this concept. THIS is what Father Frank came up with after all these years. He's throwing YOU, the horseplayer, a 'bone' with this new innovation.

"We have the player in mind" is what he would probably say if asked.

Um, right father frank, we can't thank you enough.