Morning line oddsmakers

[redeye007]

does anyone think that morning line oddsmakers use computer software these days to make the oddsline for horse races? they seem to be much better at it than they used to be. seems like most contenders picked by computer software are the lowest odds on the morning line.

:confused:

[jballscalls]

i know that the morning lines are inputted into a computer.

but i know 4 guys who do that at various tracks, and all of them print out a program of the entries, go through and do the odds.

[Actor]

I've never tried this, but lately it occurs to me that if I were to throw out the bottom half of the field (ML wise) it might save me some time and money, the idea being that the track handicapper may know something I don't.

[Overlay]

I've never tried this, but lately it occurs to me that if I were to throw out the bottom half of the field (ML wise) it might save me some time and money, the idea being that the track handicapper may know something I don't.

I thnk that it's better to evaluate each horse in a race. Even if it's granted that the linemaker may know things that other people don't from the standpoint of which horse(s) has/have the best chance to win, to me it's still impossible to say with certainty before a race is run that any particular entrant has an absolute, literal, 0% probability of finishing first. So I never discard any of them out of hand. When a longshot does manage to win, those higher-odds horses will likely be where it comes from, and I want to be sure that I've kept them on my radar screen, so I can assess their winning chances in light of their odds.

[xfile]

Unless things have changed. The job of the line maker is to estimate how the public will bet. Not rating each horse's chance to win. It's been this way forever. Some guys might be different. I guess we would have to interview each track's odds maker to find out how they currently call the line. If you assign some sort of true odds line and compare near post time odds - the overlays rise to attention. It does not have to be an exact science because racing is not an exact science. Nor is racing a math problem. However this is a numbers game when the numbers are the odds. I recommend using TwinSpires. com's 'Conditional Wagering' feature to help you filter the overlays. You set a minimum accept for the horses you bet.

[mountainman]

I've never tried this, but lately it occurs to me that if I were to throw out the bottom half of the field (ML wise) it might save me some time and money, the idea being that the track handicapper may know something I don't.

Incorporating any factor that the public isn't aware of is the LAST thing an oddsmaker should do. The idea is to think LIKE the public, not attempt to smarten them up. And the players don't NEED to be enlightened by the linesmaker. The tote is amazingly accurate in reflecting each runner's respective chance. Thus a good oddsmaker should understand and consider the finer points of handicapping, because tote trends these days often represent sophisticated thinking. Just an offhand observation, but, in my opinion, the public does overbet big beyers and tends to overrate lone speed. There was a time when predicting the leader in largely paceless races paid off handsomely. Nowadays, though, that kind of tactical advantage is the first thing almost every player looks for.