Classic contenders' finishing speed

[gm10]

For those who like their numbers.

I've had a look at the previous finishing speed (m/sec) of this year's main Classic contenders. Only races over 8.5F or longer count, and the horse must have finished in the top 3.

Richard's Kid is very interesting. You can see what Baffert saw in him when he was still running at Laurel.

To me it seems like Zenyatta is the only horse that can truly finish as fast over 10F as over 8.5 or 9F (apart from QR who doesn't finish very fast period).

The finishing speeds are standardized for a mature (4yo+) horse carrying 126 lbs on a neutral surface. Synthetic is a bit quicker than dirt, it has to be said.

If a horse goes 0.1 m/s faster than another horse, it will make up about 1 length in the final 2 furlongs.

My projected finishing speeds for the Classic would be

Blame 16.4 m/s
Fly Down 16.4 m/s
Lookin At Lucky 16.3 m/s
Quality Road 16.2 m/s
Zenyatta 16.8 m/s

That would give 4 lengths bonus to Zenyatta. Will she need to make up more than 4 lengths on any of these horses? Hmmmm - I'll be honest, I backed her at 9/2 today.


RACE_DATE COURSE GO DIST m/s HORSE
31-Oct-2009 KEE FT 9 16.63 BLAME
19-Sep-2009 LAD FT 9 16.56 BLAME
02-Aug-2009 SAR GD 9 16.49 BLAME
12-Jun-2010 CD FT 9 16.49 BLAME
07-Aug-2010 SAR FT 9 16.46 BLAME
27-Nov-2009 CD FT 9 16.44 BLAME
02-Oct-2010 BEL FT 10 16.22 BLAME
15-May-2010 PIM FT 8.5 16.14 BLAME

08-May-2010 BEL FT 9 16.63 FLY DOWN
02-Oct-2010 BEL FT 10 16.21 FLY DOWN
28-Nov-2009 CD FT 8.5 16 FLY DOWN
21-Feb-2010 GP FT 9 15.76 FLY DOWN
05-Jun-2010 BEL FT 12 15.61 FLY DOWN
28-Aug-2010 SAR FT 10 15.33 FLY DOWN

07-Nov-2009 OSA FT 8.5 16.84 LOOKIN AT LUCKY
19-Dec-2009 HOL FT 8.5 16.65 LOOKIN AT LUCKY
03-Apr-2010 SA FT 9 16.51 LOOKIN AT LUCKY
04-Oct-2009 OSA FT 8.5 16.37 LOOKIN AT LUCKY
13-Mar-2010 OP FT 8.5 16.36 LOOKIN AT LUCKY
01-Aug-2010 MTH FT 9 16.26 LOOKIN AT LUCKY
02-Oct-2010 HOO SY 8.5 16.06 LOOKIN AT LUCKY
15-May-2010 PIM FT 9.5 16.05 LOOKIN AT LUCKY

07-Aug-2010 SAR FT 9 16.31 QUALITY ROAD
03-Oct-2009 BEL SY 10 16.2 QUALITY ROAD
06-Feb-2010 GP FT 9 16.14 QUALITY ROAD
28-Mar-2009 GP FT 9 16.08 QUALITY ROAD
04-Sep-2010 SAR FT 9 15.72 QUALITY ROAD
29-Aug-2009 SAR SY 10 15.1 QUALITY ROAD

07-Feb-2010 SA FT 9 17.38 RICHARD'S KID
10-Oct-2009 OSA FT 9 17.11 RICHARD'S KID
02-Oct-2010 OTH FT 9 16.65 RICHARD'S KID
01-Jan-2009 LRL FT 8.5 16.64 RICHARD'S KID
14-Feb-2009 LRL FT 9 16.5 RICHARD'S KID
06-Sep-2009 DMR FT 10 16.45 RICHARD'S KID
20-Nov-2008 LRL FT 8.5 16.29 RICHARD'S KID
28-Aug-2010 DMR FT 10 16.24 RICHARD'S KID
10-Jul-2010 HOL FT 10 16.15 RICHARD'S KID
30-Jul-2010 DMR FT 12 15.87 RICHARD'S KID
11-Dec-2008 LRL SY 8.5 15.76 RICHARD'S KID
24-Sep-2008 LRL FT 9 15.7 RICHARD'S KID
13-Oct-2008 LRL FT 8.5 15.53 RICHARD'S KID
05-Aug-2009 DMR FT 12 15.45 RICHARD'S KID

09-Aug-2009 DMR FT 8.5 17.36 ZENYATTA
27-Sep-2008 OSA FT 8.5 17.3 ZENYATTA
24-Oct-2008 OSA FT 9 17.25 ZENYATTA
10-Oct-2009 OSA FT 8.5 17.19 ZENYATTA
31-May-2008 HOL FT 8.5 17.17 ZENYATTA
07-Nov-2009 OSA FT 10 17.16 ZENYATTA
02-Oct-2010 OTH FT 8.5 17.16 ZENYATTA
13-Mar-2010 SA FT 9 16.97 ZENYATTA
07-Aug-2010 DMR FT 8.5 16.96 ZENYATTA
23-May-2009 HOL FT 8.5 16.92 ZENYATTA
27-Jun-2009 HOL FT 9 16.82 ZENYATTA
13-Jan-2008 SA FT 8.5 16.8 ZENYATTA
05-Apr-2008 OP FT 8.5 16.75 ZENYATTA
13-Jun-2010 HOL FT 9 16.73 ZENYATTA
02-Aug-2008 DMR FT 8.5 16.43 ZENYATTA
15-Dec-2007 HOL FT 8.5 16.17 ZENYATTA
09-Apr-2010 OP FT 9 16.09 ZENYATTA
05-Jul-2008 HOL FT 9 15.88 ZENYATTA

[redshift1]

How do you calculate the FS for a specific race.

[gm10]

How do you calculate the FS for a specific race.

- take last sectional time (usually covers the last 2-3 furlongs)
- adjust for age, weight, dtv
- divide relevant distance in meters by adjusted time

A furlong in 12 seconds corresponds to 16.76 m/s. It's a bit of a barrier. Curlin managed it twice on the dirt. Ghostzapper came close at 16.63. Barbaro got 16.56 in the KD. Big Brown 16.65 in the Haskell. Rachel Alexandra had a few encounters with 16.5. Saint Liam topped at 16.4

[redshift1]

So if I understand you correctly Zenyatta has faster closing speed than Ghostzapper, Curlin. St Liam and the others you mentioned? Also if you look at her dirt efforts they are more in line with the above horses.

[Turkoman]

- take last sectional time (usually covers the last 2-3 furlongs)
- adjust for age, weight, dtv
- divide relevant distance in meters by adjusted time

A furlong in 12 seconds corresponds to 16.76 m/s. It's a bit of a barrier. Curlin managed it twice on the dirt. Ghostzapper came close at 16.63. Barbaro got 16.56 in the KD. Big Brown 16.65 in the Haskell. Rachel Alexandra had a few encounters with 16.5. Saint Liam topped at 16.4

Wouldn't it be as effective to use what Michael Pizzola calls the Projected Power Fraction (PPF)? I use it as part of my handicapping, but have made some adjustments of my own.

Turkoman

[gm10]

So if I understand you correctly Zenyatta has faster closing speed than Ghostzapper, Curlin. St Liam and the others you mentioned? Also if you look at her dirt efforts they are more in line with the above horses.

Yes she has run much quicker on the poly than a lot of the others on dirt - but synthetic surfaces are quicker over the last part of the race (they are quicker overall as well imo, although that is a can of worms). So I wouldn't suggest comparing Z's FS on poly with FS on dirt. Although you can compare with Lucky and Richard's poly form.

If you look at Z's Oaklawn dirt FS, it is very good (for 2008 - 2010 is slower but I reckon we have to classify that race as a workout).

My main fears are a) horse like QR getting some sort of easy lead, or b) Zenyatta not really acting on dirt after all. Anyway, I'd make her 5/2, maybe 3/1 if Gitano Hernando shows up.

[gm10]

Wouldn't it be as effective to use what Michael Pizzola calls the Projected Power Fraction (PPF)? I use it as part of my handicapping, but have made some adjustments of my own.

Turkoman

I have read the author that you mention but can't remember the exact details. It's probably very similar.

[redshift1]

Yes she has run much quicker on the poly than a lot of the others on dirt - but synthetic surfaces are quicker over the last part of the race (they are quicker overall as well imo, although that is a can of worms). So I wouldn't suggest comparing Z's FS on poly with FS on dirt. Although you can compare with Lucky and Richard's poly form.

If you look at Z's Oaklawn dirt FS, it is very good (for 2008 - 2010 is slower but I reckon we have to classify that race as a workout).

My main fears are a) horse like QR getting some sort of easy lead, or b) Zenyatta not really acting on dirt after all. Anyway, I'd make her 5/2, maybe 3/1 if Gitano Hernando shows up.

good info thanks

[cj]

It is good info, but betting finishing speed on dirt, even at 10f, is a quick way to the poor house. It takes more that running fast late to win on dirt.

[gm10]

It is good info, but betting finishing speed on dirt, even at 10f, is a quick way to the poor house. It takes more that running fast late to win on dirt.

maybe it does, but year after year, the division leaders run the fastest FS at least once or twice

[Tom]

Since Zen will run against the boys, how does she look unadjusted for anything?

[gm10]

Since Zen will run against the boys, how does she look unadjusted for anything?

Excellent question. I haven't looked it up but I believe she gets 3 lbs from the older horses but gives 1lb away to Lucky, so those two are favoured in that sense. Lucky is the biggest threat as it is but the 1lb in hand is a worry. Though I didn't like the way he finished the race last weekend. Perfectly excusable - but that was a very tired horse wasn't it?

[redshift1]

Excellent question. I haven't looked it up but I believe she gets 3 lbs from the older horses but gives 1lb away to Lucky, so those two are favoured in that sense. Lucky is the biggest threat as it is but the 1lb in hand is a worry. Though I didn't like the way he finished the race last weekend. Perfectly excusable - but that was a very tired horse wasn't it?

What makes you think he was tired?

[gm10]

What makes you think he was tired?

He seemed to slow down a lot in the last half furlong. Just a visual impression, anyway.

[redshift1]

He seemed to slow down a lot in the last half furlong. Just a visual impression, anyway.

Unusual race for LAL... being so far back early he finished well, but given the field not spectacularly ... he is still my pick for the BCC unless he draws the one post again.

[gm10]

- take last sectional time (usually covers the last 2-3 furlongs)
- adjust for age, weight, dtv
- divide relevant distance in meters by adjusted time

A furlong in 12 seconds corresponds to 16.76 m/s. It's a bit of a barrier. Curlin managed it twice on the dirt. Ghostzapper came close at 16.63. Barbaro got 16.56 in the KD. Big Brown 16.65 in the Haskell. Rachel Alexandra had a few encounters with 16.5. Saint Liam topped at 16.4

Uncle Mo got 16.71 m/s yesterday. Boys At T. was 16.58 over 7F.
Both are very good imo.

[gm10]

For those who like their numbers.

I've had a look at the previous finishing speed (m/sec) of this year's main Classic contenders. Only races over 8.5F or longer count, and the horse must have finished in the top 3.

Richard's Kid is very interesting. You can see what Baffert saw in him when he was still running at Laurel.

To me it seems like Zenyatta is the only horse that can truly finish as fast over 10F as over 8.5 or 9F (apart from QR who doesn't finish very fast period).

The finishing speeds are standardized for a mature (4yo+) horse carrying 126 lbs on a neutral surface. Synthetic is a bit quicker than dirt, it has to be said.

If a horse goes 0.1 m/s faster than another horse, it will make up about 1 length in the final 2 furlongs.

My projected finishing speeds for the Classic would be

Blame 16.4 m/s
Fly Down 16.4 m/s
Lookin At Lucky 16.3 m/s
Quality Road 16.2 m/s
Zenyatta 16.8 m/s

That would give 4 lengths bonus to Zenyatta. Will she need to make up more than 4 lengths on any of these horses? Hmmmm - I'll be honest, I backed her at 9/2 today.



Just a follow-up on this ... the finishing speeds in the Classic were

Blame 16.20 meters/second
Zenyatta 16.68 meters/second
Fly Down 16.30 meters/second
Lucky 15.75 meters/second

Uncle Mo 16.40 m/s (I had hoped for the magical 16.7 m/s here)