Haynesfield

[MickJ26]

Anybody know if Haynesfield is BC nominated?
Where was Blame's closing kick?
On paper, Haynesfield belonged. In reality, wow!

[horses4courses]

Haynesfield strikes me as a NY specialist who likes an easy lead.

Should he go to Churchill, and he deserves a shot, he will hinder the chances of Quality Road, for one, and would be a longshot even off his win today.

A quick pace in the Classic plays into the hands of the favorites:

Zenyatta, Lookin At Lucky, and Blame (he likes CD for sure)

[pandy]

Hopefully Blame comes out of today's race fine is fit and ready for the classic, every horse is entitled to an off day, but Blame's prior two impressive starts certainly stamp him as a big obstacle to Zenyatta in the Classic.

[ManeMediaMogul]

It seems to me that the racing surface promoted Haynesfield's victory, especially after watching the Belmont finale.

[PaceAdvantage]

It seems to me that the racing surface promoted Haynesfield's victory, especially after watching the Belmont finale.

Race 1) Off the pace winner crushes 2/5 front runner who set uncontested pace at 6 furlongs

Race 2) 24-1 shot comes from out of the clouds at 6.5 furlogns

Race 3) 7.8-1 shot comes from fifth to beat even money front-runner at 8.5 furlongs.

Race 4) Off-the-pace runner comes from fifth to win at six furlongs.

Race 5) 4-5 shot wins from off the pace at 8.5 furlongs

Race 6) Pace presser/pace dueler wins at 6 furlongs as the favorite

Race 8) Life At Ten wins from off the pace at 9 furlongs

Race 10) Haynesfield wins wire-to-wire

Race 11) The favorite in an off-the-turf MAIDEN race goes wire-to-wire and wins by almost 13 lengths.

Ummm...I'd say your theory has some serious flaws. If anything, the slower pace promoted Haynesfield's victory...the evidence about the track itself helping Haynesfield is severely lacking based on the above results.

[Jasonm921]

This horse fires from time to time. Lone speed and a lack of a clock in the heads of the other jockeys led to this result.

[Vinnie]

The race setup (for me anyhow) went poorly when I had believed that Rail Trip would be up near the front to contest the lead with Haynesfield. When that didn't happen, Haynsefield with his inherent quickness was allowed to shake loose on the lead and the race was over because the margin he created was essentially too much for the closers to overcome. My bad! That son of a gun cost me a short to moderate P4. But, heck, that is why they run these races. Congratulations to Haynesfield and his connections. That frigg'in Ramon D. (he is my favorite Jock) always has a way of costing me on the rare occasions when I leave him out. Very nice race ride by him. :)

[Tom]

Was the tracked changed by maintenance before the JCGC?
Anyone there see anything different? The last two races might have run over a different track?

Two wtw big margin winners, and the last, a big LS runs second all around the track. I'll be interested to see how the variants shake out.

If not, are we going to anoint him HOY now?:rolleyes:

[Linny]

Blame doesn't really have a closing kick. He is a "grinder." By that I mean that he's a horse that just wears you down with a determined, prolonged run, not by having a sharp turn of foot. When a quality speed horse gets loose on the lead on his favorite track (Haynesfield has never lost at BEL but for once when he didn't get the lead) it's very tough for a grinding type like Blame to run him down. Unless that pace horse is stopping badly a horse that lacks true turn of foot is vulnerable.

Of course all of this understanding didn't help me cash a ticket yesterday. :bang:

[sandpit]

This horse fires from time to time. Lone speed and a lack of a clock in the heads of the other jockeys led to this result.

I'd say he fires more often than not since he's 8 for 11 lifetime. Still, he's yet to try 10 furlongs and being by Speightstown doesn't scream distance. He's one of Asmussen's better training jobs, IMO, and I would be surprised if he's entered in the Dirt Mile as first preference.

[Linny]

I'd say he fires more often than not since he's 8 for 11 lifetime. Still, he's yet to try 10 furlongs and being by Speightstown doesn't scream distance. He's one of Asmussen's better training jobs, IMO, and I would be surprised if he's entered in the Dirt Mile as first preference.


He won at 10f yesterday.

[pandy]

It's certainly possible for the track to change during the course of the day. There did not appear to be any left over moisture on the track early in the card but they may not have watered the surface because of the prior rainy days. Before the big races they usually water the surface well so that may have made a difference. It did appear to be more speed favoring the last two races.

[sandpit]

He won at 10f yesterday.

Wow, what a moron (me, I mean)...I don't know why I thought the race was 9.:blush:

[Linny]

If you are the "Sandpit" I "know" from some older boards, I figured it was an oversight. :)

[MickJ26]

They came around with the tractors after every single race (that I was paying attention to anyway), if that plays into the minds of conspiracy theorists. Naturally after torrential rains, they had the track packed down pretty good. Garrett Gomez admitted after the race that he let Haynesfield get too far away. This is an Eclipse Award winning jockey who many consider the best in the game. By the way, does anybody know if Haynesfield is BC nominated? I can't seem to find anything on the internet. Thanks.

[PaceAdvantage]

I don't know how anyone can use the last race to judge the JCGC in terms of how the track was playing.

Once again, that last race was an off-the-turf maiden race, won by the favorite who I believe was a "main track only" horse.

The rest of the card provides AMPLE evidence that the track was not only NOT speed favoring, it might have been tilting ANTI-SPEED.

But ya'll are gonna use the last race as the barometer simply because you want to downplay Haynesfield's effort? Have at it... :rolleyes:

[Tom]

It would explain the place horse running merry-go-round at big odds, though.

[PaceAdvantage]

Are all track supers millionaires?

[slewis]

I took a real good look at all the horses for the JCGC (as I do every race) and the outcome wasn't such a shock to me.

Haynesfield looked, by far, best of the field, with Blame, Fly Down and Hold Me Back looking, what I consider average. I was a bit negative on Tranquil Manners looks, and even more negative on Rail Trip, who physically did nothing for me.

Now I can tell everyone that Haynesfield, according to my database, usually looks real sharp on race day. Toby Sheets (Asmussen's assistant) does a sensational job. When I checked my notes on Blame from the Whitney, I was much more impressed, and I got a great close up that day as we raced Musket Man so I watched all the horses closely in the paddock at Saratoga.

I personally think Stall didn't have his horse cranked up. I figure he was 80-85% and I expect him to run much better in the breeders cup.

Regarding the NYRA track super...... This guy does a sensational job. I've heard less complaining about the track from trainers then ever before.

On the big days the track(s) have played been pretty fair. I teased him on the day before the Whitney and asked him how much he was going to scrape it (the track) for Quality Road and he laughed and said "I dont do that".
Considering how much rain we had Thursday and Friday forcing the cancelations, I think the track Saturday was in pretty good shape.

[Tom]

Are all track supers millionaires?

That's crazy. Horses at big odds coming is one of the things you look at for judging a bias. Was the 48-1 shot helped by the track? Maybe....that' all I'm saying. Two races out of line with the rest of the card on an off track...not outside the realm of possibility. A horse that is supposed to win on the lead on a closers track would also figure to win on an early track, no?

[PaceAdvantage]

And race 2 saw a 24-1 shot come from way out of it to win a sprint race....

[Tom]

Yes, adding to the idea that the track was helping closers early on.
I'm talking about the track changing late in the day with new evidence.
I don't know if it did or not until I delve into the charts and times and PPs....just suggesting maybe it did. Wouldn't be the first time a track changed on an off day. My initial theory is Blame and the rest are just inferior horses who couldn't catch a loose NY Bred.

[PaceAdvantage]

Yes, adding to the idea that the track was helping closers early on.
I'm talking about the track changing late in the day with new evidence.
I don't know if it did or not until I delve into the charts and times and PPs....just suggesting maybe it did. Wouldn't be the first time a track changed on an off day. My initial theory is Blame and the rest are just inferior horses who couldn't catch a loose NY Bred.Fair enough...

[bisket]

i don't see haynesfield winning this race if it takes place before the hirsch. now with a slow pace i could see him hanging around for a piece, but not winning by daylight. i had the surface rated as a drying type surface and all the dirt races played out like that until jockey club. a drying type surface usually favors even type runners. before wagering i was concerned that the turf race would give them ample time to work on the track, and change how it was playing. its pretty obvious that is what took place. i like blame today just as much as i did before this race.

actually i think haynefield could help quality road.

[Dahoss9698]

I love the NY Bred stuff, as if that means he isn't good somehow. No wonder people coddle their horses. If they read any message boards they'd realize unless you're undefeated you suck.

Seems fair.

[pandy]

I agree that the track super does a very good job in NY. Years ago they used to have a lot more biased days with the dead rail at Belmont, speed bias on inner track, inside speed bias at Saratoga, and souped up hard tracks for big days. When Charles Hayward become CEO in 2004 one of the first things he wanted to do was get rid of the Belmont dead rail. He publicly stated that he believed racetracks should be fair and that was what he was going to strive for, so he hired Passero right away. Since then all of the NYRA tracks have played fair, even the inner track. Hayward and the track super both deserve a lot of credit.

[Tom]

I agree. I'm not saying they purposely changed the track, just that it did due to the weather.

[riskman]

The rest of the card provides AMPLE evidence that the track was not only NOT speed favoring, it might have been tilting ANTI-SPEED.

But ya'll are gonna use the last race as the barometer simply because you want to downplay Haynesfield's effort? Have at it... :rolleyes:

Nice effort by Haynesfield .Got away good and no one was a threat. I kept on watching the winners, yet I continued to take a bath on my forwardly placed wagers. Thought I had a bomb with Straight
Romance #6 in the in the 2nd race 37-1 but faded to 3rd.

[bisket]

if people took my post as saying its some kind of conspiracy or something thats not how i think. the track has to dry to a certain point before they can change it. i just thought it was a possibility, but hey you gotta go with what ya got sometimes when wagering. :faint: anybody that had haynes on top of the other two i tip my cap. he did figure to be capable of winning by some of the data. he wasn't backing up in some of his 1 1/8 mile races time wise at the finish. i just figured rail and him would poop each other out on the front. that never materialized. with the way the race materialized i don't think haynes would have dropped out of show money anyhow, and my wagers weren't winners.

[PaceAdvantage]

before wagering i was concerned that the turf race would give them ample time to work on the track, and change how it was playing. its pretty obvious that is what took place.Maybe I should ask you the question I asked earlier.

Are track superintendents filthy rich?

[Bullet Plane]

I don't think that there was a track bias. However, the race, and the way it was run, gave a huge advantage to Haynesfield - as the lone speed in the race.

Speed kills.

[bisket]

Maybe I should ask you the question I asked earlier.

Are track superintendents filthy rich?
i'm sure they get a jump on everybody else on some occassions. although being at the track does have its advantages....

[bisket]

i will say sometimes you can tell when they are watering the track between races when watching on tv at home or if you have a cable connection for your internet (need clear reception). especially if they are watering certain parts and not others. while they have the camera's on the horses during the post parade look for sections of the track that are shaded darker than other parts. if you see horses running over those parts of the track doing better consistantly you can usually deduct that they are watering the track.

at monmouth this summer this trick worked like a charm during the june and july months. they consistantly watered the 1 path early in the card, and after every turf race 2 or 3 paths were watered. look at the replays from that period on monmouth's website and you will see what i mean.

[tbwinner]

Anybody know if Haynesfield is BC nominated?


He is BC-nominated and I definitely could see them going in the Classic.

[Grits]

Slewis Originally Posted: Toby Sheets (Asmussen's assistant) does a sensational job.

Slewis glad to see you believe as I, that Toby does a sensational job. I had said the same last night.

Scott Blasi gets far more ink, but Toby does do an outstanding job with Steve's New York string.

[bisket]

what was the reason given for haynesfield's behavior before the whitney?

[MickJ26]

He is BC-nominated and I definitely could see them going in the Classic.

Thanks, TB!

[classhandicapper]

It seems to me that the racing surface promoted Haynesfield's victory, especially after watching the Belmont finale.

It's funny that you bring that up because I have a question about that.

The track seemed to be unkind to speed all day, but it was drying out. Unfortunately I was entertaining someone and didn't notice if they worked on the track prior to the feature race (JCBG).

In my notes, I have the day as probably a disadvantage for inside speed relative to the norm, but I have a question mark for the last two races because it's possible that the track changed as it dried out or got worked on. The speed was logical in both races, but they both ran better than I expected.

[Charlie D]

I don't think that there was a track bias. However, the race, and the way it was run, gave a huge advantage to Haynesfield - as the lone speed in the race.

.

Good EP type, good jockey, no pressure, main opposition out the back for most of the race equaled game, set and match to Haynesfield.

No help from track needed at all thanks to the race dynamics

[cj]

Good EP type, good jockey, no pressure, main opposition out the back for most of the race equaled game, set and match to Haynesfield.

No help from track needed at all thanks to the race dynamics

Blame has overcome worse race dynamics a few times before. Not sure what to make of his effort.

[Charlie D]

Race was over before Blame was rollin CJ, Haynesfied would have had to have stopped to a walk or Blame needed to be wearing rocket powered shoes to overcome these race dynamics imho.

It will be no surprise to see the result reversed in Classic as the race dynamics will be totally different.

[cj]

Race was over before Blame was rollin CJ, Haynesfied would have had to have stopped to a walk or Blame needed to be wearing rocket powered shoes to overcome these race dynamics imho.

I will be surprised if result is not reversed in Classic as the race dynamics will be totally different.

As you know, I start with the numbers. For the JCGC, I have 104 pace, 107 speed. I had the Whitney at 106/110, a shorter distance and a better horse in front, Quality Road. He had no problems. I had the Foster at 99/102 with Battle Plan setting a pretty easy lead, a pretty good Battle Plan at the time. Again, no problem. I have my concerns about Blame, this race was uninspiring despite the dynamics in my opinion.

[classhandicapper]

Blame has overcome worse race dynamics a few times before. Not sure what to make of his effort.

I suspect that Haynesfield ran better than most people think (and Blame not as bad as they think). I just don't know what to make of the track that day.

I'm also fairly sure the connections of Blame want him fresh and fit for the Classic. So they didn't have him wound up 100% for the JCGV. They didn't want him to fire a huge race in the JCGC and come out of it a tired horse. IMO, he will fire another top effort in the Classic and will be very dangerous horse.

[Charlie D]

Better horse in front?? Yes, maybe over a mile and shorter, not 9- 10f imho.

[cj]

I suspect that Haynesfield ran better than most people think (and Blame not as bad as they think). I just don't know what to make of the track that day.

I'm also fairly sure the connections of Blame want him fresh and fit for the Classic. So they didn't have him wound up 100% for the JCGV. They didn't want him to fire a huge race in the JCGC and come out of it a tired horse. IMO, he will fire another top effort in the Classic and will be very dangerous horse.

I'm thinking the same about not 100%, but do you really want 7 to 2 hoping that is the case?

How fast do you think Haynesfield ran? The number fits very well with the rest of the day.

[Charlie D]

I'm also fairly sure the connections of Blame want him fresh and fit for the Classic. So they didn't have him wound up 100% for the JCGV. They didn't want him to fire a huge race in the JCGC and come out of it a tired horse.


I think similar to this CH. Maybe it was a case of, if chance to take the race is there take it, but if not, lets save him for the BIG day

[classhandicapper]

I'm thinking the same about not 100%, but do you really want 7 to 2 hoping that is the case?

How fast do you think Haynesfield ran? The number fits very well with the rest of the day.

I have no idea how fast Haynesfield ran. The track was drying out and it was the only two turn race of the day. But I have a high opinion of Blame and think Fly Down is pretty fair also. The rest of them were so well beaten it wouldn't shock me if the race was a little faster than Beyer made it and Haynesfield ran a big top. I just don't know.

I am clueless as to what odds I would take on Blame right now.

I just know that a lot of trainers don't want their horses to peak prior to the major goal and if he did run a subpar race I am more apt to excuse it.

[bisket]

blame's workout pattern said to me they were looking past this race. the two handily 6 fur works and then a slow breeze isn't the pattern you would normally see to get a horse on his toes before a race. it would be a few breezes and then a zinger. although thats a very subjective observation.

i truly don't think this will be a good betting race unless the post draw makes the race winnable for a horse thats borderline and a good value. if 20 want to enter will they allow it?

[cj]

if 20 want to enter will they allow it?

You've been following the sport how long?

[bisket]

You've been following the sport how long?
not up on the breeders cup rules.

[Dahoss9698]

blame's workout pattern said to me they were looking past this race. the two handily 6 fur works and then a slow breeze isn't the pattern you would normally see to get a horse on his toes before a race. it would be a few breezes and then a zinger. although thats a very subjective observation.

i truly don't think this will be a good betting race unless the post draw makes the race winnable for a horse thats borderline and a good value. if 20 want to enter will they allow it?

As usual you're batting 1000%. Coming into the Whitney Blame had slow breezes, including one going 5 furlongs and one going 6 furlongs. No zinger at all before the Whitney. His pattern coming into the races were pretty close and the "slow breeze" before the JCGC was actually a bullet and there were only a few works within a week that went faster at keeneland for 4 furlongs.

[cj]

not up on the breeders cup rules.

MOTO

[tbwinner]

Since there seems to be some confusion here on field size, entry, etc...
I direct you here:
http://www.breederscup.com/points.aspx?divisionname=classic

All fields have max 14 starters. Eligibility for oversubscribed fields based on the points/automatic "win-you're-in" system.

[bisket]

As usual you're batting 1000%. Coming into the Whitney Blame had slow breezes, including one going 5 furlongs and one going 6 furlongs. No zinger at all before the Whitney. His pattern coming into the races were pretty close and the "slow breeze" before the JCGC was actually a bullet and there were only a few works within a week that went faster at keeneland for 4 furlongs.
thanks i'm in the hall of fame and the best hitter of all time.

[bisket]

Since there seems to be some confusion here on field size, entry, etc...
I direct you here:
http://www.breederscup.com/points.aspx?divisionname=classic

All fields have max 14 starters. Eligibility for oversubscribed fields based on the points/automatic "win-you're-in" system.
thanks tb i kinda thought that was the case. most people aren't aware that the track doesn't have control of the breeders cup card. so the rules are different.

[FenceBored]

thanks i'm in the hall of fame and the best hitter of all time.

I thought that was Only11. :confused: