Andy Beyer: Zenyatta's fast, but doesn't belong in racing's pantheon

[andymays]

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/09/29/AR2010092903591.html

Excerpt:

When the mare subsequently lost the horse of the year title to Rachel Alexandra, her partisans reacted with white-hot anger. The blogosphere is regularly filled with sharp rebukes for anybody who demeans Zenyatta or even suggests that she is not one of the greatest racehorses of all time.

Compiling an 18-for-18 career record is an extraordinary feat. Horse races contain so many potential pitfalls that no high-class U. S. horse has put together such a streak since Hindoo in 1881. Nevertheless (at the risk of inflaming the blogosphere), I could not put Zenyatta on a list of all-time great racehorses.

[andymays]

Isn't this just what the doctor ordered?

Let the pissing contest begin. ;)

[Dahoss9698]

Another fantastic article by Beyer. Horse racing is lucky to have him.

[cj]

As usual, he is spot on...except the 2008 Apple Blossom wasn't much of a field.

[andymays]

Zenyatta faces five in her final prep for Classic | Daily Racing Form

http://drf.com/news/zenyatta-faces-five-her-final-prep-classic

Excerpt:

Satans Quick Chick was supplemented to the Lady's Secret for $4,500 on Wednesday by owner Jerry Jamgotchian, who also owns Rinterval. Eric Reed trains Satans Quick Chick and Rinterval.

[andymays]

How long before carlonr starts flipping out ?

[Pick6]

He gave himself an out. And the article ignores the fact that Moss did go east to challenge RA. Of course the likely outcome of Z defeating RA would not have changed his view anyways, so really no need to bring it up.

Also, he clearly contradicts himself when stating that Z could have ended the Z/RA debate by defeating a "below-her-prime" RA.

And there do exist horses who have performed well on both surfaces. Zenyatta is another, although everybody ignores her 2008 AB win as meaningless.

[Pick6]

Zenyatta faces five in her final prep for Classic | Daily Racing Form

http://drf.com/news/zenyatta-faces-five-her-final-prep-classic

Excerpt:

Satans Quick Chick was supplemented to the Lady's Secret for $4,500 on Wednesday by owner Jerry Jamgotchian, who also owns Rinterval. Eric Reed trains Satans Quick Chick and Rinterval.
So who is the sacrificial rabbit?

[cj]

He gave himself an out. And the article ignores the fact that Moss did go east to challenge RA. Of course the likely outcome of Z defeating RA would not have changed his view anyways, so really no need to bring it up.

And there do exist horses who have performed well on both surfaces. Zenyatta is another, although everybody ignores her 2008 AB win as meaningless.

Since when is Arkansas east?

[andymays]

So who is the sacrificial rabbit?

I'm not familiar with Satans Quick Chick so I couldn't tell you. Rinterval runs on or near the lead.

[DeanT]

Beyer has his POV, or world view on, surfaces and he writes - and writes it very well. He is one of the best people to read in the sport.

But it is somewhat curious, because you can read last year's tome before the BC, and almost transpose it to this year's piece on Z. The weird part for me, is he says virtually the same thing he said last year about her and her opponents, when saying she had no shot to win against males. Now this year, when she accomplished what he said she could not do, he harkens back to the same argument (only replacing it with his surface world view).

It smacks of a little bit of "having your cake and eating it too" in my opinion.

Zenyatta is the biggest star in two days of racing at Santa Anita that include 14 stake races with more than $25 million in purse money. But there are substantial reasons to doubt that she can beat male rivals as Rachel Alexandra did in the spring and summer.

Trainer John Shirreffs has given Zenyatta an ultra-conservative campaign this season, racing her four times on the synthetic tracks she loves, always against small fields of overmatched fillies and mares. Zenyatta didn't blow away this competition, and her speed figures were unexceptional. Her modest winning margins were partly the result of her catch-'em-at-the-wire style, but nevertheless she has not looked as impressive as she was in her best efforts of 2008. It requires a giant leap of faith to conclude, from her 2009 form, that Zenyatta can beat the Classic field that includes the best U.S. males -- Summer Bird and Quality Road -- and a pair of high-class Europeans. It is preposterous that she is the 5-to-2 morning-line favorite.

[bisket]

like many on this board beyer's handicapping lives and dies with his speed figures. speed figs leave much to be desired in gauging the speed of a race when comparing races on dirt and poly track. so like many handicappers that rely heavily on speed figures. when it comes to this subject, they are consistantly wrong when it comes to this particular aspect of handicapping.

[andymays]

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/09/29/AR2010092903591.html

Excerpt:

When racing fans of the future look back at the record of a mare who excelled on long-forgotten substances called Pro-Ride and Cushion Track, they are apt to regard Zenyatta as a historical curiosity rather than an all-time great racehorse.

[Pick6]

Since when is Arkansas east?
it's not? Last time I looked at a map Arkansas is about 1,500 miles EAST of Hollywood Park. Or are you suggesting flying around the Earth in the other direction 23,000 miles to get there?

[Dahoss9698]

Isn't this just what the doctor ordered?

Let the pissing contest begin. ;)

Thanks for this thread Andy. I can't wait to check back later. i was going to go see a movie, but I'm sure this will be far more entertaining.

[Pick6]

Beyer has his POV, or world view on, surfaces and he writes - and writes it very well. He is one of the best people to read in the sport.

But it is somewhat curious, because you can read last year's tome before the BC, and almost transpose it to this year's piece on Z. The weird part for me, is he says virtually the same thing he said last year about her and her opponents, when saying she had no shot to win against males. Now this year, when she accomplished what he said she could not do, he harkens back to the same argument.

It smacks of a little bit of "having your cake and eating it too" in my opinion.
It seemed as though he was not the only one to misjudge Z's incredible ability. Again, he structures a pseudo-argument with an out in case he's wrong again.

[andymays]

Thanks for this thread Andy. I can't wait to check back later. i was going to go see a movie, but I'm sure this will be far more entertaining.

:lol:

Yep, I'd pay all of my 400 v cash to see carlonr do his thing.

[cj]

it's not? Last time I looked at a map Arkansas is about 1,500 miles EAST of Hollywood Park. Or are you suggesting flying around the Earth in the other direction 23,000 miles to get there?

Well, sure, but so is Turf Paradise. Would that be called shipping east too?

She didn't ship to race Rachel in any case. It was known well in advance she wasn't coming. They shipped to face a bunch of tomato cans, similar to all the fields she has faced this year.

[RXB]

She didn't ship to race Rachel in any case. It was known well in advance she wasn't coming. They shipped to face a bunch of tomato cans, similar to all the fields she has faced this year.

When the plans were made to point Zenyatta towards the Apple Blossom, the multi-million purse and Rachel Alexandra were on the agenda.

[cj]

When the plans were made to point Zenyatta towards the Apple Blossom, the multi-million purse and Rachel Alexandra were on the agenda.

Plans never change? Wasn't the Big Cap a week later?

[Pick6]

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/09/29/AR2010092903591.html

Excerpt:

When racing fans of the future look back at the record of a mare who excelled on long-forgotten substances called Pro-Ride and Cushion Track, they are apt to regard Zenyatta as a historical curiosity rather than an all-time great racehorse.
An alternate view can also be constructed:

A racemare who was never defeated either on dirt or synthetic surfaces, who beat older males twice in the richest event American racing had to offer. Only one's imagination can be used to expand on what she could have done if her racing career was in another era, when synthetic surfaces were only a curiosity.

[ArlJim78]

How many horses are in racings pantheon, and how do they qualify for that?
Also how many horses are on his list of all time greats? If the list is only five or 10 horses he has a point. If he means that Zenyatta is not in the top 50 or 100 all time I can't agree.

this is all subjective.

I get his point, and there is some truth to what he says. But I think he's dead wrong about Zenyatta being a known as a curiosity only in the future. And why would he publish this column today, before the final two races of Zenyatta's career? If she wins the 2010 classic against a solid field, ends her career at 20 for 20 and a two time classic winner, he's nuts if he thinks she will be only a curiosity and not on every list of all time greats.

If she gets thumped then he could be right. But why make the call today? Why was he compelled to summarize and completely quantify Zenyatta's career today?

[RXB]

Big Cap early March, Apple Blossom early April.

[Pick6]

Well, sure, but so is Turf Paradise. Would that be called shipping east too?

She didn't ship to race Rachel in any case. It was known well in advance she wasn't coming. They shipped to face a bunch of tomato cans, similar to all the fields she has faced this year.
So RA campaigned at Turf Paradise? You got me on that one. And I think Moss could have vanned her there in 6 hours, so no I don't see how anybody could say Z going to Arkansas is not "going East", which is what Beyer states in his article.

And correct me if I'm wrong, was there not a $5,000,000 deal for Z and RA to race? And who backed out of that, was it Z? So who intended to "go East" to race against RA again? And who chose to omit that from his article again?

[andymays]

An alternate view can also be constructed:

A racemare who was never defeated either on dirt or synthetic surfaces, who beat older males twice in the richest event American racing had to offer. Only one's imagination can be used to expand on what she could have done if her racing career was in another era, when synthetic surfaces were only a curiosity.

I'm more on board with the "long forgotten" part of his statement when referring the Pro Ride and Cushion track. He did forget Polytrack the biggest nightmare of all.

[Pick6]

How many horses are in racings pantheon, and how do they qualify for that?
Also how many horses are on his list of all time greats? If the list is only five or 10 horses he has a point. If he means that Zenyatta is not in the top 50 or 100 all time I can't agree.

this is all subjective.

I get his point, and there is some truth to what he says. But I think he's dead wrong about Zenyatta being a known as a curiosity only in the future. And why would he publish this column today, before the final two races of Zenyatta's career? If she wins the 2010 classic against a solid field, ends her career at 20 for 20 and a two time classic winner, he's nuts if he thinks she will be only a curiosity and not on every list of all time greats.

If she gets thumped then he could be right. But why make the call today? Why was he compelled to summarize and completely quantify Zenyatta's career today?
All fair points. Anybody who leaves her out of the top 50 with a 2010 BCC win is not objective.

And of course something happened yesterday that probably has a bit to do with this.

[tzipi]

He gave himself an out. And the article ignores the fact that Moss did go east to challenge RA. Of course the likely outcome of Z defeating RA would not have changed his view anyways, so really no need to bring it up.

Also, he clearly contradicts himself when stating that Z could have ended the Z/RA debate by defeating a "below-her-prime" RA.

And there do exist horses who have performed well on both surfaces. Zenyatta is another, although everybody ignores her 2008 AB win as meaningless.

Now Arkansas is East. C'mon.

[Pick6]

Now Arkansas is East. C'mon.
Another proposal to fly 23,000 miles WEST instead of 1,500 miles EAST?

[DeanT]

And why would he publish this column today, before the final two races of Zenyatta's career?

I assume it was written before RA retired. It seems it would have to be, because the story today is her, not Z. But ya, it seems more appropriate for before the BC Classic, or even after.

Good point on the rankings (1-10 versus against other females). When she is done, I assume she will be somewhere placed below Ruffian and above Personal Ensign in the mid to high 30's, mid 40's. But that is just my opinion. The list is always skewed towards males, and we still have the BC to go. Where would you put her Jim?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blood-Horse_magazine_List_of_the_Top_100_U.S._Racehorses _of_the_20th_Century

[tzipi]

Another proposal to fly 23,000 miles WEST instead of 1,500 miles EAST?
:rolleyes:. You should have seen how the past champions horses traveled.

[cj]

All fair points. Anybody who leaves her out of the top 50 with a 2010 BCC win is not objective.

And of course something happened yesterday that probably has a bit to do with this.

He said he doesn't expect her to win.

[Pick6]

:rolleyes:. You should have seen how the past champions horses traveled.
Fully aware of it. Buckpasser, Dr. Fager, Damascus, Riva Ridge, and Seattle Slew all good examples.

[Pick6]

He said he doesn't expect her to win.
Which is his out, obviously.

[cj]

Which is his out, obviously.

An out? It is a prediction, one some would consider bold seeing how she will most likely be favored, second choice at worst.

[OntheRail]

When the plans were made to point Zenyatta towards the Apple Blossom, the multi-million purse and Rachel Alexandra were on the agenda.

Part of that is correct... this part. When the plans were made to point Zenyatta towards the Apple Blossom,

Oaklawn's owner hatch the scheme with the 5 mil lure after Moss had already been pointed toward the race. Jackson did not have it on Rachel's dance card.

And Arkansas may be East of CA but it is the MID WEST. So no Zenyatta did not travel EAST.

[Pick6]

An out? It is a prediction, one some would consider bold seeing how she will most likely be favored, second choice at worst.
Z against the field? The field will be favored, obviously.

And the out is if indeed Z wins, he can just erase everything he wrote today and claim she is the best racemare ever.

[Pick6]

And Arkansas may be East of CA but it is the MID WEST. So no Zenyatta did not travel EAST.

You need help with directions. Flying 1,500 miles EAST is indeed "going East", which is what Beyer pointed out. I never claimed it was not in the midwest, or the south, or 500 miles from Louisville, KY, etc.

And RA had campaigned there as a 3YO, so this was not strange territory. And RA was not "going West" to meet Z by any reasonable estimate, as she was already in training in Louisiana.

[Cardus]

A well-written, and well-argued column.

And by noting the "white-hot anger" exhibited by Zenyatta fans following the Horse-of-the-Year announcement, is it clear that Beyer reads PA?

He did not give himself "an out": he concluded that he doubts that Zenyatta will win the Breeders' Cup Classic. If she wins, it'll be noted by him for the special achievement that it is to win two Breeders' Cup Classics.

She would join fellow Californian Tiznow on that pedestal. Same pedestal.

[andymays]

Hovdey: A rivalry never settled on the track

http://www.drf.com/news/rivalry-never-settled-track

Excerpt:

In the end, there was only that one fleeting moment when Rachel Alexandra and Zenyatta could have been embraced at the same place and time. They were both there at Churchill Downs, on May 1, 2009, Rachel to run that day in the Kentucky Oaks and Zenyatta entered to make her first start of the year in the Louisville Handicap, earlier on the program. Shirreffs took one look at the way the muddy racetrack was being renovated that morning and decided to scratch. Rachel Alexandra, then trained by Hal Wiggans, won the Oaks by 20 1/4 lengths.

[Pick6]

A well-written, and well-argued column.

And by noting the "white-hot anger" exhibited by Zenyatta fans following the Horse-of-the-Year announcement, is it clear that Beyer reads PA?

He did not give himself "an out": he concluded that he doubts that Zenyatta will win the Breeders' Cup Classic. If she wins, it'll be noted by him for the special achievement that it is to win two Breeders' Cup Classics.

She would join fellow Californian Tiznow on that pedestal. Same pedestal.
It is an out because he predicates the article on his assumption that Z will lose.

So not only does he get an out if Z wins (because his position is based on the assumption she loses), but he then gets to restate an entirely new position based on her performance in the BCC.

Excellent writing. Any soap opera screenwriter would be proud.

[tzipi]

Fully aware of it. Buckpasser, Dr. Fager, Damascus, Riva Ridge, and Seattle Slew all good examples.

Well alot of current greats too. Also many mares have to over time. Can't leave them out. I remember SilverBulletDay and Serena Song, two of my favorites going east to west all the time. Different game today.

[Pick6]

Hovdey: A rivalry never settled on the track

http://www.drf.com/news/rivalry-never-settled-track

Excerpt:

In the end, there was only that one fleeting moment when Rachel Alexandra and Zenyatta could have been embraced at the same place and time. They were both there at Churchill Downs, on May 1, 2009, Rachel to run that day in the Kentucky Oaks and Zenyatta entered to make her first start of the year in the Louisville Handicap, earlier on the program. Shirreffs took one look at the way the muddy racetrack was being renovated that morning and decided to scratch. Rachel Alexandra, then trained by Hal Wiggans, won the Oaks by 20 1/4 lengths.
I would say, based on how things have worked out, that Shirreffs made a very smart move by scratching that day. Who knows what might have happened with Z in that race. And it would have done nothing to substantiate a position for or against her ability, not even considering that they were not set to race against each other.

And there were 5 million reasons for RA to race in this year's AB, where Z was planning to run. So no, this was not the only chance when they could have met.

[Pick6]

Well alot of current greats too. Also many mares have to over time. Can't leave them out. I remember SilverBulletDay, one of my favorites going east to west all the time. Different game today.
And who could ever forget Chris Evert winning by 50?

[Show Me the Wire]

Hovdey: A rivalry never settled on the track

http://www.drf.com/news/rivalry-never-settled-track

Excerpt:

In the end, there was only that one fleeting moment when Rachel Alexandra and Zenyatta could have been embraced at the same place and time. They were both there at Churchill Downs, on May 1, 2009, Rachel to run that day in the Kentucky Oaks and Zenyatta entered to make her first start of the year in the Louisville Handicap, earlier on the program. Shirreffs took one look at the way the muddy racetrack was being renovated that morning and decided to scratch. Rachel Alexandra, then trained by Hal Wiggans, won the Oaks by 20 1/4 lengths.


What is your point? Shirreffs, who doesn't like AWS felt the ""dirt" surface would be unsafe. Shirreffs did what he thought was best for his horse, nothing wrong with that move.

It may have been a miscalcualtion on Shirreffs part because he was not as familiar with the CD surface as Wiggins.

[ArlJim78]

I assume it was written before RA retired. It seems it would have to be, because the story today is her, not Z. But ya, it seems more appropriate for before the BC Classic, or even after.

Good point on the rankings (1-10 versus against other females). When she is done, I assume she will be somewhere placed below Ruffian and above Personal Ensign in the mid to high 30's, mid 40's. But that is just my opinion. The list is always skewed towards males, and we still have the BC to go. Where would you put her Jim?


I honestly don't know. I don't put a lot of thought into these subjective rankings. Like this idea of the pantheon. I still want to know which horses are in the pantheon.

My lone opinion is that with a strong showing at CD that she would have to be considered amongst the all time greats, whether that means 20, 30, 40, 50th, I 'm not sure. I think for a lot of people, myself included, her final race is going to be a big factor on where she stands historically speaking.

[jonnielu]

Another fantastic article by Beyer. Horse racing is lucky to have him.

Well.. let's see. Pre-Beyer, horse racing was America's number 1 spectator sport. After 35 years of Beyer, the sport teeters on extinction. Yeah.... that's lucky.

jdl

[Cardus]

Well.. let's see. Pre-Beyer, horse racing was America's number 1 spectator sport. After 35 years of Beyer, the sport teeters on extinction. Yeah.... that's lucky.

jdl

I have been looking for pure idiocy. I mean PURE idiocy.

I've found what I've been looking for.

[riskman]

Could Zenyatta on her best day beat any of the 10 or 20 greatest race horses of all time. The same can be said of Rachel Alexander.Of course, then you get into the argument on who was the best. Did she beat the best of her time? Could she beat Ruffian or Personal Ensign.You see, you can go on and on.
If Zenyatta wins the Classic on dirt she will certainly be discussed for quite some time. Zenyatta had all year to silence her critics but her handlers chose to play the safe route.

[Pick6]

Could Zenyatta on her best day beat any of the 10 or 20 greatest race horses of all time. The same can be said of Rachel Alexander.Of course, then you get into the argument on who was the best. Did she beat the best of her time? Could she beat Ruffian or Personal Ensign.You see, you can go on and on.
If Zenyatta wins the Classic on dirt she will certainly be discussed for quite some time. Zenyatta had all year to silence her critics but her handlers chose to play the safe route.
If RA would have gone in the AB, and assuming that Z wins, does that change your view?

And I'm assuming a win in the 2010 BCC does not seem to sway your apparent position that Z is not one of the greatest racemares, correct?

[Bruddah]

Part of that is correct... this part.

Oaklawn's owner hatch the scheme with the 5 mil lure after Moss had already been pointed toward the race. Jackson did not have it on Rachel's dance card.

And Arkansas may be East of CA but it is the MID WEST. So no Zenyatta did not travel EAST.


Iz can't stands it no mo. You're both wrong! Zenyatta and her connections traveled east but not to the Northeast. shhhhit! :mad:

[bigmack]

Well.. let's see. Pre-Beyer, horse racing was America's number 1 spectator sport. After 35 years of Beyer, the sport teeters on extinction. Yeah.... that's lucky.
jdl
That is quite possibly the most hilarious post (in a troll kinda way) of all time.

Particularly in light of it coming from someone who has the gall to peddle & hawk this garbage propaganda.

'jdl', is that for Just a Downright Lunatic?

http://i165.photobucket.com/albums/u70/macktime/1-2.jpg

[Hanover1]

Oh, brother. I could go 4 paragraphs with examples, but why bother? Horses don't know how fast they run, they just do it. If she pulls off another BC win, I place her in the top 3 of the mares, and in top 15 alltime regardless of age/sex. Having to never run down a torrid pace to the mile pole does detract somewhat from her greatness, but overcoming snaillike paces adds to it as well. I still feel we may never see the bottom of her, and a win in upcoming BC would solidify this position-further enhancing her greatness.
Beyer himself will tell you that the fastest horse doesn't always win the race, but in her case, I find it amusing that we look for excuses as to why she wins, and I seldom see excuses for winners, except that they went faster than the rest of them that day.
I suppose that up until now, she is slower than many horses out there, but we don't have any examples of any one of these faster horses with her record. Just excuses for why she is a winner.......I hope she gets it done again to solidify her place once and for all. And it will be on dirt.

[cpitt84]

I see switch was entered today and that will make the race alittle more interesting since Switch beat Blind Luck.

Mike Smith was saying he thinks Zenyatta is actually getting better. I think they should run her next year, depending on her next 2 races. I don't think they will but I would love it if they did. I think Mike Smith is hinting that he does, too :)

[Robert Fischer]

im not reading 4pages of this stuff(or the article), but Beyer has to draw a chuckle out of you. Classic stuff, great timing:ThmbUp:

[riskman]

If RA would have gone in the AB, and assuming that Z wins, does that change your view?

And I'm assuming a win in the 2010 BCC does not seem to sway your apparent position that Z is not one of the greatest racemares, correct?


The AB did not happen so I have no opinion.

A win in the Classic on dirt for Zenyatta places her as one of the greatest race mares if the greatest is more than 10

[jonnielu]

That is quite possibly the most hilarious post (in a troll kinda way) of all time.

Particularly in light of it coming from someone who has the gall to peddle & hawk this garbage propaganda.

'jdl', is that for Just a Downright Lunatic?



Why don't you go ahead and trot out your support for that claim, unless you are just running your yap as usual.

jdl

[Pick6]

The AB did not happen so I have no opinion.

A win in the Classic on dirt for Zenyatta places her as one of the greatest race mares if the greatest is more than 10

I am aware the 2010 AB match did not happen; I was extrapolating a likely scenario in which Z defeats RA.

top 10 f/m of 20th century:
Ruffian
Busher
Gallorette
Personal Ensign
Dahlia
Susan's Girl
Twilight Tear
Cicada
Top Flight
All Along

That would leave Z at around #70, measured against the complete top 20th century list.

I'm sure RA and Rags to Riches would be put in this somewhere, which reduces your estimate of Z to somewhere around 80-90 all-time.

Too low IMO. Ruffian certainly, the others probably not. I think that is where the historians will place her as well, #2.

[Cardus]

Hovdey: A rivalry never settled on the track

http://www.drf.com/news/rivalry-never-settled-track

Excerpt:

In the end, there was only that one fleeting moment when Rachel Alexandra and Zenyatta could have been embraced at the same place and time. They were both there at Churchill Downs, on May 1, 2009, Rachel to run that day in the Kentucky Oaks and Zenyatta entered to make her first start of the year in the Louisville Handicap, earlier on the program. Shirreffs took one look at the way the muddy racetrack was being renovated that morning and decided to scratch. Rachel Alexandra, then trained by Hal Wiggans, won the Oaks by 20 1/4 lengths.

If the Pulitzer folks gave a "What Does It Matter?" Award, this column would win it.

The quality of Hovdey's columns in Zenyatta-related matters has fallen off the cliff.

[Robert Fischer]

Zenyatta is somewhere between the greatest of all time and an average true GradeI horse(which is fairly rare itself).

This was such an excruciatingly awful campaign this year. Yes she seems to have made it to the BCC healthy, however this will only be 1 race vs GradeI rivals for the whole year.

she never once took on Goldikova,Workforce,Pacoboy or other top turf horses on turf.

She never took on any of the top turf horses on synthetic.

I would love to see Zenyatta pointed for the DWC 2011, with one world class turf race in europe in between(made-up if necessary.) Go out with a bang. None of her "real" fans mind if she loses, we want to see her tested against the best, and no 1 1/16th short routes vs slow-down pace scenarios of the mismatched rivals are NOT the kind of tests we want to see!

[Nets]

If the Pulitzer folks gave a "What Does It Matter?" Award, this column would win it.

The quality of Hovdey's columns in Zenyatta-related matters has fallen off the cliff.

If there was such an award, surely it would go either to:

"Who's Better - Rachel or Zenyatta?"

or

"Who Predicted Rachel's Retirement First?"

[bigmack]

There once was a time when the reporting @ The Washington Post had some level of credibility. That’s gone.

There once was a time when readership of a Beyer column had more volume and weight than it does. That’s gone.

There once was a time when racing held the interest of more than a very small slice of society. That’s gone.

AB refers to this nebulous, misnomered ‘blogosphere’ because he’s acutely aware of his audience. Might as well write about something that will garner some reaction like Z.

What else is there to write a column about, Frankel in Europe?

I greatly respect AB, and at the same time I’ve found posts around here far more insighful than his columns.

Arguably, he makes some contentious statements:

In my view, it is a dubious distinction to be the poster girl for the surfaces that have robbed the sport here of its unique character.
Robbed the sport of the unique character of what; dirt? Has Astroturf 'robbed' the unique character of MLB or the NFL?

There is still no evidence that she is as potent on dirt as she is on synthetics.
No evidence? None at all?

When racing fans of the future look back at the record of a mare who excelled on long-forgotten substances called Pro-Ride and Cushion Track, they are apt to regard Zenyatta as a historical curiosity rather than an all-time great racehorse.
A historical curiosity? If he posted that around here it would appear ‘flaming’.
________________________________

The world has changed. Once upon a time an opinion came down from a publication/column that brought insight that was otherwise little known. With this darn internet thing, insights abound. By the time a published column has come out, it's been hashed over around these parts to the point of it being a non-issue. But then again, it's Beyer.

Viva la Beyer. :cool:

[ronsmac]

Beyer hasn't really been able to understand synthetic racing. Thus judging her on inferior Beyers instead of concentrating on the wicked finish she displays.

[GaryG]

Some of these guys, who never have an opinion on if it might rain tomorrow or any other damn thing, come out of the woodwork whenever Zenyatta is mentioned. Now we even have "what if" extrapolations. :lol:

The story on Zenyatta will not be written until after the BC. This one is on natural dirt you know.

[thaskalos]

This was not one of Beyer's better pieces, IMO.

He states at the end of the article that Zenyatta can silence all her critics by winning, or narrowly losing, the BC Classic...but what does "silencing all her critics" really mean?

If Zenyatta beats the country's best dirt horses in the Classic...what will Beyer, and "all her critics" say about her then?

Will they say that she now belongs among the "Greats" of the sport...or will most of them still maintain that she remains a "curiosity" that only ran twice against the "big boys"...while staying in California for 85% of her starts?

Do the Zenyatta critics who agree with Beyer's views in this article, also agree that they should be "silenced" by a Zenyatta victory in the Classic?

[jonnielu]

Beyer hasn't really been able to understand synthetic racing. Thus judging her on inferior Beyers instead of concentrating on the wicked finish she displays.

Beyer has never been able to understand that time is a result, and speed is one component of a horse race. But, thank goodness he has so many blind and non-thinking followers.

jdl

[DeanT]

This was not one of Beyer's better pieces, IMO.

He states at the end of the article that Zenyatta can silence all her critics by winning, or narrowly losing, the BC Classic...but what does "silencing all her critics" really mean?

If Zenyatta beats the country's best dirt horses in the Classic...what will Beyer, and "all her critics" say about her then?

Will they say that she now belongs among the "Greats" of the sport...or will most of them still maintain that she remains a "curiosity" that only ran twice against the "big boys"...while staying in California for 85% of her starts?

Do the Zenyatta critics who agree with Beyer's views in this article, also agree that they should be "silenced" by a Zenyatta victory in the Classic?

The polarization regarding opinion is there, and has been for some time. Like Beyer's article, we have someone that said she could not do something (then she did) and instead of saying "congrats, wow, I was way wrong about her ability", the bar is moved again and she has to jump over it again. No horse in our history has ever had that asked of them.

There is something more to this.

DanG, one of the sharpest players and judges of flesh you will find (imo), and most importantly a gentleman does not post anymore, but I caught one of his gems today. it was in response to a question of "why so polarizing" http://www.homebased2.com/forums/showpost.php?p=93556&postcount=3

I think he is spot on.

[classhandicapper]

Andy Beyer has often demonstrated that much like when he wrote Picking Winners and claimed that pace doesn't matter at all or when he later called Seattle Slew a mediocre horse that he lacks a deep and comprehensive understanding of racing and how to measure thoroughbred ability and performance.

One thing I am certain of is that there is a huge difference between being a winning horse player and actually having a deep understanding of thoroughbred performance and ability.

Winning requires a handful of profitable insights and the self control to stick with them. Winning a lot of money requires the above plus the personality type willing to risk large sums, cope with long losing streaks etc... Andy has all that in spades and that makes him a great horse player.

However, IMHO Andy and many other winning players do not have a very deep understanding of performance or thoroughbred ability. At least he didn't exactly say she's not among the all time great mares of history. He seems to be implying the broader category of all horses (male and female).

There are many things to complain about or at least question regarding Zenyatta's handling, but to not recognize her greatness and place among the all time great mares is beyond ignorant.

[classhandicapper]

Beyer has never been able to understand that time is a result, and speed is one component of a horse race. But, thank goodness he has so many blind and non-thinking followers.

jdl

I second that.

[bigmack]

However, IMHO Andy and many other winning players do not have a very deep understanding of performance or thoroughbred ability.
How many winning players do you know and how is it you have an intimate knowledge of their 'deep understanding' of things?

I'm reminded of people saying Bjorn Borg had an unorthodox style of play and would never amount to much. That said by coaches/players that never amounted to much.

[metroman]

seabiscuit had no chance against war admiral and the east coast foolishness continues to 2010.When zenyatta wins this years classic will she belong then?

[classhandicapper]

How many winning players do you know and how is it you have an intimate knowledge of their 'deep understanding' of things?

I'm reminded of people saying Bjorn Borg had an unorthodox style of play and would never amount to much. That said by coaches/players that never amounted to much.

Obviously, this is all IMHO....

After over 30 years in the game I've met a lot of winners. There were trainer pattern players, class handicappers, pace handicappers, trip handicappers, bias handicappers, guys that looked for inside money on the board, very stats oriented guys, angle oriented guys, selection oriented players, odds line/overlay oriented players, and various combinations of the above. I learned a lot of things from all of them and learned a lot on my own too.

IMHO very few of them had a fairly deep understanding of almost all aspects of the game and how it all fit together etc... They won doing what they knew best. Many of them were way better "horse players" than me (perhaps better than I'll ever be because they were better suited to this psychologically than I am), but IMHO only a handful understood the overall game better than I do.

Maybe that sounds arrogant, but I'm not suggesting I'm some kind of great horse player. I'm saying if you can't comprehend Zenyatta greatness, IMO you clearly don't understand as much as you think.

[the little guy]

seabiscuit had no chance against war admiral and the east coast foolishness continues to 2010.When zenyatta wins this years classic will she belong then?


I'm dying to see your other five posts.

[Tom]

Beyer hasn't really been able to understand synthetic racing. Thus judging her on inferior Beyers instead of concentrating on the wicked finish she displays.

My thoughts exactly.

[Cratos]

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/09/29/AR2010092903591.html

Excerpt:

When the mare subsequently lost the horse of the year title to Rachel Alexandra, her partisans reacted with white-hot anger. The blogosphere is regularly filled with sharp rebukes for anybody who demeans Zenyatta or even suggests that she is not one of the greatest racehorses of all time.

Compiling an 18-for-18 career record is an extraordinary feat. Horse races contain so many potential pitfalls that no high-class U. S. horse has put together such a streak since Hindoo in 1881. Nevertheless (at the risk of inflaming the blogosphere), I could not put Zenyatta on a list of all-time great racehorses.

Andy Beyer’s article was well written, but not well documented with respect to the differences between synthetic and dirt surfaces and that should be expected because Andy Beyer from all public accounts is not a man adroit, voluble, and assured with the scientific acumen to quantitate the speed differential between the surfaces of synthetic and dirt.

Does this demean his standing as the most distinguished spokesman today speaking aloud in the sport journals about horseracing?

No it doesn’t, but it does say that what he wrote was merely an opinion and shouldn’t be taken as dogma.

[riskman]

One thing I am certain of is that there is a huge difference between being a winning horse player and actually having a deep understanding of thoroughbred performance and ability.

Winning requires a handful of profitable insights and the self control to stick with them. Winning a lot of money requires the above plus the personality type willing to risk large sums, cope with long losing streaks etc... Andy has all that in spades and that makes him a great horse player.

However, IMHO Andy and many other winning players do not have a very deep understanding of performance or thoroughbred ability.

And how does one acquire this knowledge if you are not hands on with either training, owning breeding, riding or vet practice.

This may seem like stupid question to you. But I really am interested in your answer.

[classhandicapper]

Beyer hasn't really been able to understand synthetic racing. Thus judging her on inferior Beyers instead of concentrating on the wicked finish she displays.

That's essentially the problem.

If you start with the assumption that only great dirt horses are great then you aren't going to like Zenyatta much (unless of course she does the close to impossible and wins the Classic). Personally, I think that's a very closed minded perspective. It's no less silly than a European thinking that only great turfers are great.

However, if you don't understand how turf and synthetic racing differs from dirt racing and try to use dirt metrics (like speed figures and average winning margins etc...) to compare turf and synthetic horses to dirt horses, you are simply misunderstanding the sport and wrong.

[the little guy]

And how does one acquire this knowledge if you are not hands on with either training, owning breeding, riding or vet practice.




You choose a moniker and password and sign up for an internet message board.

[Dahoss9698]

This was not one of Beyer's better pieces, IMO.

He states at the end of the article that Zenyatta can silence all her critics by winning, or narrowly losing, the BC Classic...but what does "silencing all her critics" really mean?

If Zenyatta beats the country's best dirt horses in the Classic...what will Beyer, and "all her critics" say about her then?

Will they say that she now belongs among the "Greats" of the sport...or will most of them still maintain that she remains a "curiosity" that only ran twice against the "big boys"...while staying in California for 85% of her starts?

Do the Zenyatta critics who agree with Beyer's views in this article, also agree that they should be "silenced" by a Zenyatta victory in the Classic?

Defeating the Classic field will go a long way to proving just how good she really is. Her critics just want to see her run against the best in order to crown her. Her zealots want to crown her because she beats up on mediocre competition. That's the difference.

No one can say with a straight face that her last two years have been anything other than uninspiring campaigns. I know she ran in the Classic last year and the plans are this year. But there is more to the year than one race.

On the other hand, her consistency is remarkable and there can be no denying she's extremely talented. We just don't know how good she truly is because she's been handled with ZERO confidence. Somewhere along the way (maybe at Churchill last year) it was decided the streak was more important than competing. It's too bad and I would say the same thing about the way RAchel was handled this year. No confidence and it seemed she was campaigned more not to lose than actually competing.

[5k-claim]

Some of these guys, who never have an opinion on if it might rain tomorrow or any other damn thing, come out of the woodwork whenever Zenyatta is mentioned. Now we even have "what if" extrapolations. :lol:

The story on Zenyatta will not be written until after the BC. This one is on natural dirt you know.

I guess I am one of those guys. I came in to see about the Rachel retirement, and stayed around for this Beyer stuff on Zenyatta.

My favorite line in this article has to be:

When racing fans of the future look back at the record of a mare who excelled on long-forgotten substances called Pro-Ride and Cushion Track, they are apt to regard Zenyatta as a historical curiosity rather than an all-time great racehorse.

I have talked to enough horsemen with enough combined experience of eyes and hands on horses to feel safe in saying that Z's high regard is pretty safe from falling completely into the "historical curiosity" category. I have purposefully had conversations about Z, and purposefully left them as open ended as possible, seeing how long it takes before the subjects of "synthetic specialist" or "slow speed figures" are brought up by the other person. More often than not, they never come up.

The man I am stabled next to right now has over 50 years experience training horses, and one morning when I put the name "Zenyatta" with the idea of "synthetic specialist" his first reaction was "What?" (To be fair, this could have been due in part to the fact that his hearing is kinda shot.) After explaining how popular this question is among some people his second reaction was to laugh; and his third was an expletive.

After that, I didn't even bother bringing up the whole "slow Beyer Speed Figures" thing.

Granted, mine is a highly informal and personal poll taken in the shallow end of the racing pool at the "lower level" tracks (the kind so many people are anxious to see go under.) But I am genuinely curious to hear people's opinions about Z while she is still running, and have definitely tried not to steer the responses. Even if nobody else finds it interesting or useful, it has been interesting to me. The end result is not at all surprising. A wide enough range of opinions (from Beyer to the man I am stabled with) that I would be very willing to bet against that last prediction of his. Or maybe I just don't know exactly who he is including when he refers to "racing fans".

[classhandicapper]

And how does one acquire this knowledge if you are not hands on with either training, owning breeding, riding or vet practice.

This may seem like stupid question to you. But I really am interested in your answer.

The best way I can explain it from my perspective is that over time if you are a serious handicapper you will accumulate ideas, theories etc... from others and your own research that seems to explain some things. After a longer period of time you start getting to the point where there are some things you "know you know" and other things that still fall into the category of ideas or theories etc...

We all have holes in our game and understanding, but IMHO you can win with a lot of holes in your game as long as stick to what you know.

[bigmack]

On the other hand, her consistency is remarkable and there can be no denying she's extremely talented. We just don't know how good she truly is because she's been handled with ZERO confidence. Somewhere along the way (maybe at Churchill last year) it was decided the streak was more important than competing. It's too bad and I would say the same thing about the way RAchel was handled this year. No confidence and it seemed she was campaigned more not to lose than actually competing.
Well done, Sir. Your post encapsulates both equines and their campaigns as best as it can be expressed. Case closed. End of discussion.

True blue. That's it.

[jonnielu]

Obviously, this is all IMHO....

After over 30 years in the game I've met a lot of winners. There were trainer pattern players, class handicappers, pace handicappers, trip handicappers, bias handicappers, guys that looked for inside money on the board, very stats oriented guys, angle oriented guys, selection oriented players, odds line/overlay oriented players, and various combinations of the above. I learned a lot of things from all of them and learned a lot on my own too.

IMHO very few of them had a fairly deep understanding of almost all aspects of the game and how it all fit together etc... They won doing what they knew best. Many of them were way better "horse players" than me (perhaps better than I'll ever be because they were better suited to this psychologically than I am), but IMHO only a handful understood the overall game better than I do.

Maybe that sounds arrogant, but I'm not suggesting I'm some kind of great horse player. I'm saying if you can't comprehend Zenyatta greatness, IMO you clearly don't understand as much as you think.

I believe this is an accurate assessment. For many, it makes no sense to keep answering questions once you have come to a point where you can succeed and your methods suit you. At the point you are doing well with what you do well, there is not a great need to take it farther.

But, for those that do want or need to accomplish a more full and complete understanding of this sport, they may find that the reality of the sport is no where near as complex as the great bulk of handicapping dogma may imply. Don't be surprised if you find that the game is more consistent then it is complex.

Everyone agrees that it is a tough game, success can be fleeting because if you are a winner, everyone is trying to beat you. To apply a wholesale discount to any horse, at any level, that has won 18 races straight, is just ridiculous.

jdl

[Tom]

If you start with the assumption that only great dirt horses are great then you aren't going to like Zenyatta much

I think you have something here, Class.
We have to discount all poly tracks races, obviously.

But I think we need to further...we need to remove all off tracks wins from all horses, including Persoanl Ensign and Forgo's sloppy track wins.
After all, wet dirt is not real dirt.

And no grass race should ever be considered anything but malarkey.

and we need to go back to every HOY and dig deep into all of their Gr1 wins and re-classify many of them.

And then we need to go deeper and throw out any race over a track with a provable bias towards early speed or golden rails, or dead rails, or anything else we might find.

Who knows how many pretenders are out there with undeserved legacies of eclipse awards?

We need a Spanish Inquisition here.
Let's start with Man O' war.

:rolleyes:

[bigmack]

Everyone agrees that it is a tough game
Say what? You promise potential customers something else.

http://i165.photobucket.com/albums/u70/macktime/999-4.png

What did that chick say to Meatloaf in that tune - What's it gonna be boy?

[SmartyLane]

Everybody has an opinion....nothing wrong with any of them.

I have only one point to make.

For all the Non-Believers in Z - What if she smokes the field in the BCC this year?

Will you say, this years BCC was weak and still dismiss the win? Or some other excuse.

or

Will you say, I was wrong, this win proves to me she deserves the greatness some have been speaking of for some time?

I will say it now.......If she makes the gates in the BCC, SHE WILL WIN. I will be on the rail yelling my a** off, with chills going down my spine.

[bisket]

An out? It is a prediction, one some would consider bold seeing how she will most likely be favored, second choice at worst.
there we go. we've got it in writing.... saying which horse will win before the race is.... bold? :lol: you know alot of us do this all the time. afraid to stick your neck out? so is zenyatta gonna win? who's gonna win the jcgc? your speed figs are the best..... but making predictions before the race is bold?

[cj]

Everybody has an opinion....nothing wrong with any of them.

I have only one point to make.

For all the Non-Believers in Z - What if she smokes the field in the BCC this year?

Will you become a believer?

or

Will you say, this years BCC was weak and still dismiss the win?

or

Will you say, I was wrong, this win proves to me she deserves the greatness some have been speaking of for some time?

I will say it now.......If she makes the gates in the BCC, SHE WILL WIN. I will be on the rail yelling my a** off, with chills going down my spine.

If she wins, I will be disappointed that we never got to see her against the best horses other than in her last race. I'll also be surprised. Further, I'll worry that any decent horse that comes along will try to emulate the "one race season" Shirreffs' model.

[classhandicapper]

Defeating the Classic field will go a long way to proving just how good she really is........


The problem is I don't think I've ever seen a filly/mare that I would make the favorite in the typical Breeders Cup Classic at 10F on dirt in my 35 years of being a fan/handicapper.

Furthermore, I'm certain I've never seen a turf mare that I would make the favorite in the typical Breeder's Cup Classic at 10F on dirt.

So even if she fails dismally, I'm not really sure what that really proves other that she's not a great dirt horse.

So I don't think the standard should be win or failure. I think this is about proving versatility.

If she runs a big race and finishes close given the trip etc... I would consider that to be an outstanding performance and a vindication of her ability on dirt "too". Despite the silly schedule this year I already consider her a great mare based on some of her races against very good horses on synthetic.

On the flip side, if she were to somehow win the Classic this year I would consider it one of the greatest achievements by any mare ever, especially considering her overall record and her 2 other BC wins. (of course I'll probably be ripping up some tickets give the likely odds)

It would be really hard to deny anything about her at that point.

[the little guy]

It's not Zenyatta's fault that the many horses over the last 25 years that were better than her are not around to beat her.....but that also doesn't make her better than them.

Blame is also a really nice horse but I don't think any sane person believes him to be anything close to an all-time great either. Perspective, quite frankly, has been, especially recently, completely thrown out the window. However, that doesn't make those of us that have it either stubborn or wrong....or anything of the kind.

[classhandicapper]

I think you have something here, Class.
We have to discount all poly tracks races, obviously.

But I think we need to further...we need to remove all off tracks wins from all horses, including Persoanl Ensign and Forgo's sloppy track wins.
After all, wet dirt is not real dirt.

And no grass race should ever be considered anything but malarkey.

and we need to go back to every HOY and dig deep into all of their Gr1 wins and re-classify many of them.

And then we need to go deeper and throw out any race over a track with a provable bias towards early speed or golden rails, or dead rails, or anything else we might find.

Who knows how many pretenders are out there with undeserved legacies of eclipse awards?

We need a Spanish Inquisition here.
Let's start with Man O' war.

:rolleyes:


LOL.

I'm one of the biggest Ghostzapper fans in the world, but he had one of softest schedules of any all time great I have ever seen (and I do think he was a modern an all time great). Half his stakes wins came against high quality allowance horses, on wet tracks, etc... but somehow he gets a free pass. ;) I think he proved his greatness against St Liam (who was just hitting his best stride then) and subsequently in the Classic when he beat one of the deepest and best Classic fields of all time.

[thaskalos]

Defeating the Classic field will go a long way to proving just how good she really is. Her critics just want to see her run against the best in order to crown her. Her zealots want to crown her because she beats up on mediocre competition. That's the difference.

No one can say with a straight face that her last two years have been anything other than uninspiring campaigns. I know she ran in the Classic last year and the plans are this year. But there is more to the year than one race.

On the other hand, her consistency is remarkable and there can be no denying she's extremely talented. We just don't know how good she truly is because she's been handled with ZERO confidence. Somewhere along the way (maybe at Churchill last year) it was decided the streak was more important than competing. It's too bad and I would say the same thing about the way RAchel was handled this year. No confidence and it seemed she was campaigned more not to lose than actually competing.As I have told you before, I find it impossible to disagree with you when you are making perfect sense.

I agree...this year's Classic will be Zenyatta's defining moment, and I think she will pass the test with flying colors. And then she will waltz into the history books as the best mare in recent memory...and one of the most unforgettable horses any of us ever saw.

[RXB]

We need a Spanish Inquisition here.
Let's start with Man O' war.


A horse so stupid that he wheeled at the start in one of his races, thus losing to the inferior Upset. Obviously a contemptible animal; exactly the kind that probably would've moved up on an artificial surface.

How about Citation? Pig. Lost to a filly. And lost to Saggy. Poly horse for sure.

Don't even get me started on Kelso.

There must be others.

[cj]

there we go. we've got it in writing.... saying which horse will win before the race is.... bold? :lol: you know alot of us do this all the time. afraid to stick your neck out? so is zenyatta gonna win? who's gonna win the jcgc? your speed figs are the best..... but making predictions before the race is bold?

I predict you have an IQ of less than 40 before you take the test.

[OntheRail]

Iz can't stands it no mo. You're both wrong! Zenyatta and her connections traveled east but not to the Northeast. shhhhit! :mad:
When people mention East and Horse Racing... Saratoga... Belmont... Churchill... Pimlico. and such come to mind. Not Oaklawn. :lol:

[jonnielu]

Say what? You promise potential customers something else.



What did that chick say to Meatloaf in that tune - What's it gonna be boy?

Tough game for any particular horse to win 18 straight. Even an imbecile like yourself could make a living betting it.

jdl

[the little guy]

Tough game for any particular horse to win 18 straight. Even an imbecile like yourself could make a living betting it.

jdl


But not an imbecile like you.

[Dahoss9698]

I predict you have an IQ of less than 40 before you take the test.

Can I get odds on this?

[cj]

Can I get odds on this?

1 to 10. 1 to 5 he beats little johnny.

[classhandicapper]

It's not Zenyatta's fault that the many horses over the last 25 years that were better than her are not around to beat her.....but that also doesn't make her better than them.

Blame is also a really nice horse but I don't think any sane person believes him to be anything close to an all-time great either. Perspective, quite frankly, has been, especially recently, completely thrown out the window. However, that doesn't make those of us that have it either stubborn or wrong....or anything of the kind.

I could also make a long list of great "male" horses I think were better at what they did than she is at what she does and would almost certainly beat her on dirt.

I could probably make a fairly long list of "dirt mares" that "might" be able to beat her on dirt too.

We simply don't know how good she is on dirt and perhaps that's something that we can all agree we would like to know (and may get a chance to see soon).

The issue is that greatness is not limited to dirt.

There are great turf horses, great dirt horses, great sprinters, great routers etc... and now there are various forms of another surface (at least for awhile)

The thing is, the standards and tools that are used to measure greatness on dirt where most handicappers develop their insights into racing do not transfer well to synthetic or turf racing. So if you are using them to compare horses across surfaces, IMO you are comparing apples to oranges and will often make large errors regarding the quality of individual performances and sometimes even the quality of a field.

I don't think I'm saying anything too controversial.

But what I am saying is that some of the qualities Zenyatta possesses and some of the things she has done, very few mares in the history of universe could have done. And those special things she can do make her great on synthetic surfaces even if they don't eventually transfer well to dirt. But most important IMO it simply doesn't matter if she fails in the Classic any more than the fact that Ruffian would probably have gotten her handed to her against a lot of great turf mares.

[bigmack]

Tough game for any particular horse to win 18 straight. Even an imbecile like yourself could make a living betting it.
You don't really want to go to war with me do you?

Just take my ribs and pipe down.

Dig?

[Charlie D]

The problem is I don't think I've ever seen a filly/mare that I would make the favorite in the typical Breeders Cup Classic at 10F on dirt in my 35 years of being a fan/handicapper.




Rags To Riches???

[Beachbabe]

I think you have something here, Class.
We have to discount all poly tracks races, obviously.

But I think we need to further...we need to remove all off tracks wins from all horses, including Persoanl Ensign and Forgo's sloppy track wins.
After all, wet dirt is not real dirt.

And no grass race should ever be considered anything but malarkey.

and we need to go back to every HOY and dig deep into all of their Gr1 wins and re-classify many of them.

And then we need to go deeper and throw out any race over a track with a provable bias towards early speed or golden rails, or dead rails, or anything else we might find.

Who knows how many pretenders are out there with undeserved legacies of eclipse awards?

We need a Spanish Inquisition here.
Let's start with Man O' war.

:rolleyes:

Now, this post makes the most sense. :D

[Pick6]

Defeating the Classic field will go a long way to proving just how good she really is. Her critics just want to see her run against the best in order to crown her. Her zealots want to crown her because she beats up on mediocre competition. That's the difference.
I would say most who recognize Z's immense talent would prefer she run in the 2010 BCC, instead of resting on her laurels assuming she wins this weekend.

We just don't know how good she truly is because she's been handled with ZERO confidence.
Competing in 2009 BCC contradicts this. When you got guys like Beyer saying stupid things like "5/2 is a joke", then I would say quite a few others felt the same way.

[cj]

The issue is that greatness is not limited to dirt.



The real issue that many of us are not willing to grant greatness to a horse that races almost exclusively on a surface we can't possibly understand very well yet, no matter how smart we think we are. It is also very likely that the surface will be gone from top level racing almost before it got started.

[horses4courses]

This type of thread is so annoying it's beyond belief.
Too many people look at Beyer in awe - like he is racing's messiah.

Unfounded opinions, conjecture, hypothesis.....you name it, it's here.

So, what can you get out of all of this?

Not much.

I will say this, though:

If Zenyatta mows down Olympic Road, Lookin at Lucky, Blame, and assorted others, in the Classic this year, Andrew Beyer can eat s-h-1-t.

Should she not perform to her follower's expectations, the detractors were right all along.

Personally, I doubt she will win in November.
However, I will rejoice if she does,because handicapping horse racing is more than a numbers game.........

[Pick6]

Rags To Riches???
I'd lean more toward Genuine Risk, who peaked at that distance and who probably did not face the same level of competition for her generation.

[jonnielu]

But not an imbecile like you.

Well, I'd certainly be up against it if I were betting your "best" horses. BTW, congratulations on cutting down the stammering, you might make a broadcaster someday.

jdl

[jonnielu]

You don't really want to go to war with me do you?

Just take my ribs and pipe down.

Dig?

No, go ahead and fire away, you want to call names... back it up, I'm standing here.

jdl

[Dahoss9698]

Competing in 2009 BCC contradicts this. When you got guys like Beyer saying stupid things like "5/2 is a joke", then I would say quite a few others felt the same way.

I disagree. The plan was to retire her. If she didn't win, she was going to retire anyway, so it didn't matter.

Her campaign this year has been one of zero confidence. Even you can't deny it.

[cj]

No, go ahead and fire away, you want to call names... back it up, I'm standing here.

jdl

He did. He said your claims are ridiculous. I'm sure Patrick would agree. No response to your silly 5k per month claims?

[cj]

Competing in 2009 BCC contradicts this. When you got guys like Beyer saying stupid things like "5/2 is a joke", then I would say quite a few others felt the same way.

She was headed to the Distaff until Sea the Stars scratched...how soon people forget, conveniently.

[jonnielu]

The real issue that many of us are not willing to grant greatness to a horse that races almost exclusively on a surface we can't possibly understand very well yet, no matter how smart we think we are. It is also very likely that the surface will be gone from top level racing almost before it got started.

What if everything you think you know about surfaces is of no actual consequence?

jdl

[cj]

What if everything you think you know about surfaces is of no actual consequence?

jdl

I guess I'd find a new game, but luckily that isn't the case.

[classhandicapper]

The real issue that many of us are not willing to grant greatness to a horse that races almost exclusively on a surface we can't possibly understand very well yet, no matter how smart we think we are. It is also very likely that the surface will be gone from top level racing almost before it got started.

CJ,

I think you, I, and many others understand it well enough to know that very few mares in the history of racing could have won in some of the spots she's won (multiple times). You just seem to not want to acknowledge that she possesses some extremely rare abilities that are especially suited to that surface that make her unique and IMO great relative to the norms for horses.

IMO, it's fairly clear she's a rare freak of a specimen even if she gets buried in the Classic.

At least despite the disagreement, we remain polite. ;)

[Pick6]

She was headed to the Distaff until Sea the Stars scratched...how soon people forget, conveniently.
Beyer made his stupid statements without Sea the Stars in the race.

[cj]

CJ,

I think you, I, and many others understand it well enough to know that very few mares in the history of racing could have won in some of the spots she's won (multiple times). You just seem to not want to acknowledge that she possesses some extremely rare abilities that are especially suited to that surface that make her unique and great relative to the norms for horses.

IMO, it's fairly clear she's a rare freak of a specimen even if she gets buried in the Classic.

At least despite the disagreement, we remain polite. ;)

I don't mind acknowledging that her talent is especially suited to rubber. It is what I've said all along. On dirt, I don't think she is as good. I just have trouble knowing if those abilities translate to being great on dirt or turf, and no, turf and rubber are not the same.

[jonnielu]

He did. He said your claims are ridiculous. I'm sure Patrick would agree. No response to your silly 5k per month claims?

I'm sure that you are sure of a lot of things that have no basis in fact. Funny how I never hear about my ridiculous claims from anyone that is familiar with the material.

jdl

[Pick6]

I disagree. The plan was to retire her. If she didn't win, she was going to retire anyway, so it didn't matter.

Her campaign this year has been one of zero confidence. Even you can't deny it.
So you say the record is paramount to the camp, then they risk losing it is ok because it would have been her last race? That would be more reason NOT to take a risk.

And entering her in 2010 BCC, according to many, is a bigger risk than last year. So, it is certainly NOT ZERO confidence in play here. A smart and conservative campaign, certainly.

[cj]

Beyer made his stupid statements without Sea the Stars in the race.

I was talking about the zero confidence which is what you were addressing. If they were so confident, there would have been no cross entering.

[cj]

I'm sure that you are sure of a lot of things that have no basis in fact. Funny how I never hear about my ridiculous claims from anyone that is familiar with the material.

jdl

Who would tell people to quit there job to bet horses? It is laughable, even you don't believe it.

[horses4courses]

The Zenyatta campaign this year has not lacked in confidence at all.

They have done right by the horse.

She took on all comers again at OP - nobody showed.
Fields have been pretty easy in Calif, but she is still undefeated.
St. Trinians is no slouch - she is still licking her wounds.

Everything has been geared towards the Classic.
It's all-in then - her entire 2010 campaign hinges on it.
There is no lack of confidence.......good luck to her!

[Pick6]

I was talking about the zero confidence which is what you were addressing. If they were so confident, there would have been no cross entering.
If they had ZERO confidence, they would not have entered/run her in the 2009 BCC. Beyer and his cronies had her scoped for a big loss, i.e. "5/2 is a joke" stuff.

[bigmack]

Funny how I never hear about my ridiculous claims from anyone that is familiar with the material.
Happy to see you realize the error of your ways.

Look, Chump; if you were posting at some tangential handicapping site you might get away with your outlandish, fraudulent claims. Truth is, folk 'round here don't take kindly to dolts promising guaranteed profits to the uninformed.

In any event, you remain a stone cold troll. Run along.

[cj]

If they had ZERO confidence, they would not have entered/run her in the 2009 BCC. Beyer and his cronies had her scoped for a big loss, i.e. "5/2 is a joke" stuff.

Horses win as underlays all the time. Just because a horse wins doesn't mean they are a good bet. Wasn't that the point, even if you disagree? Value is in the eye of the beholder.

I'd be worn out by now if every time I bet against an overbet horse that won I was considered a dumbass.

[bisket]

1 to 10. 1 to 5 he beats little johnny.
so i take this to mean you've deflected this question

[Pick6]

Horses win as underlays all the time. Just because a horse wins doesn't mean they are a good bet. Wasn't that the point, even if you disagree? Value is in the eye of the beholder.

I'd be worn out by now if every time I bet against an overbet horse that won I was considered a dumbass.
As an owner taking a risk that his undefeated mare will be embarrassed by a competitive field and experts telling you your horse has no chance? No. Entering your mare in that environment would not reflect ZERO confidence.

I believe Beyer conceded his incorrect view anyways. And if he were correct in his assessment then Z's camp were taking even more risk of getting beat.

[classhandicapper]

I don't mind acknowledging that her talent is especially suited to rubber. It is what I've said all along. On dirt, I don't think she is as good. I just have trouble knowing if those abilities translate to being great on dirt or turf, and no, turf and rubber are not the same.

So we are basically on the same page EXCEPT that I don't think it matters.

I also think the fact that she earned a solid new figure top for a mare on dirt in only her "4th start" before she had even reached her peak on synthetic, is substantial evidence that she's very versatile (another uncommon quality). It just doesn't prove whether she's as good on dirt.

Personally, I doubt she's as good on dirt, but I've heard that the connections think she handles dirt better based on workouts on a training track (not sure where), at Oaklawn and at CD when she was shipped there.

To be as good though, IMO she's going to have to get into the races quicker and retain some of her late punch. I question that. But even if she can do that, IMO she's probably not going to win the Classic. She's going to run well though and IMO that will go a long way to proving a lot.

[cj]

so i take this to mean you've deflected this question

I'm following your lead. You still never answered dahoss.

I make predictions plenty of times. One thing is sure, when I'm right I don't screw up the bet Dross. When the field comes out I'll tell you which horse I like.

Check my site. You can see every Breeder's Cup pick I've made for years. Some are really good, some ok, some stink. Ce la vie.

[FenceBored]

When the plans were made to point Zenyatta towards the Apple Blossom, the multi-million purse and Rachel Alexandra were on the agenda.

BUZZZZZT

Wrong. The Apple Blossom was the immediate target out of John Shirreff's mouth when asked what there plans were for her after her 'unretirement.'

Shirreffs told DRF that no decision has been made on Zenyatta's schedule, but indicated that they would like to return to Oaklawn Park for the Apple Blossom Handicap (gr. I) in Hot Springs, Ark., on April 3.
-- http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/54862/zenyatta-back-to-work-at-hollywood-park (January 18th, 2010)

[Pick6]

To be as good though, IMO she's going to have to get into the races quicker and retain some of her late punch. I question that. But even if she can do that, IMO she's probably not going to win the Classic. She's going to run well though and IMO that will go a long way to proving a lot.
Which probably is why Shirreffs has her in a 1 1/16 prep. He seems to have made all of the right moves so far, at least no wrong moves.

[bigmack]

You still never answered dahoss.
Ce la vie.
You know me, I hate to be pedantic. Howevah...

It's C'est la vie

As well as, 'You still never' doesn't really work.

Just a lil' FYI...

[cj]

You know me, I hate to be pedantic. Howevah...

It's C'est la vie

As well as, 'You still never' doesn't really work.

Step it up. :jump:

I know that well. Can't believe I screwed up both. I'm tired. It is hard work reading all this rubbish.

Nothing can ignite a thread like the words Beyer and Zenyatta.

[bigmack]

It is hard work reading all this rubbish.
Duly noted. Emotions run high with Z.

I get a kick out of the if she runs in the Classic she'll win and I'll be cashin' sentiment.

Little point in watching comedies when posts here offer much in the way of laughter.

[classhandicapper]

Which probably is why Shirreffs has her in a 1 1/16 prep. He seems to have made all of the right moves so far, at least no wrong moves.

I am not 100% convinced she's as good this year as she was in 2008 and in the Classic in 2009. Perhaps we'll learn more in the Ladies Secret, but I doubt the field and pace will be conducive to her revealing what she still has in the tank.

Shirreffs has been flawless and she has been working a little better lately than she was previously. So perhaps he's starting to crank her up. I'd love to see a huge effort because it would make the Classic more interesting to me. If she's still 100% and handles CD well, she'll probably get into the mix late. If she's not 100% she's going to get embarrassed and I'd really hate to see that given how all the critics will react.

[Dahoss9698]

The Zenyatta campaign this year has not lacked in confidence at all.

They have done right by the horse.

She took on all comers again at OP - nobody showed.
Fields have been pretty easy in Calif, but she is still undefeated.
St. Trinians is no slouch - she is still licking her wounds.

Everything has been geared towards the Classic.
It's all-in then - her entire 2010 campaign hinges on it.
There is no lack of confidence.......good luck to her!

It's hard to have real discussion with posts like this. Everything is geared towards one race. Avoid tougher competition and spots because of a target at the end of they year. But that isn't a lack of confidence?

They called Rail Trip the top of the mountain. Rail Trip. They made shipping seem like a herculean feat with the nonsense about the rockies. Blind Luck will be making her 5th trip across those same rockies on Saturday.

There are some really difficult things in this sport to understand and there are some easy ones. This one is a no brainer. If they weren't afraid of her losing, she would have had a more ambitious schedule. And I include RA and her connections in that group this year.

[keithw84]

Blame is also a really nice horse but I don't think any sane person believes him to be anything close to an all-time great either. Perspective, quite frankly, has been, especially recently, completely thrown out the window. However, that doesn't make those of us that have it either stubborn or wrong....or anything of the kind.

I would agree that there is no reason to think Blame has proven he is all-time great material. I think it is more a factor of thinking that as in most years, the best male horse in training is better than the best female in training.

Keep in mind that the best female in training (Azeri) was pretty much a non-factor in the 2004 BCC. I realize it's not a perfect comparison, but I think there are some parallels - both being 6 years old, etc.

Can we just agree that Zenyatta is the all-time greatest female on synthetics and move on? Second place would be Nashoba's Key... with maybe Anabaa's Creation being a very close third??? :rolleyes: ;)

[cj]

I would agree that there is no reason to think Blame has proven he is all-time great material. I think it is more a factor of thinking that as in most years, the best male horse in training is better than the best female in training.

Keep in mind that the best female in training (Azeri) was pretty much a non-factor in the 2004 BCC. I realize it's not a perfect comparison, but I think there are some parallels - both being 6 years old, etc.

Can we just agree that Zenyatta is the all-time greatest female on synthetics and move on? Second place would be Nashoba's Key... with maybe Anabaa's Creation being a very close third??? :rolleyes: ;)

Nashoba's Key might be better. We'll never know because Shirreffs ducked her with a late scratch.

[bigmack]

Nashoba's Key might be better. We'll never know because Shirreffs ducked her with a late scratch.
Can't you go along to get along, just once? :rolleyes:

[keithw84]

It's hard to have real discussion with posts like this. Everything is geared towards one race. Avoid tougher competition and spots because of a target at the end of they year. But that isn't a lack of confidence?

They called Rail Trip the top of the mountain. Rail Trip. They made shipping seem like a herculean feat with the nonsense about the rockies. Blind Luck will be making her 5th trip across those same rockies on Saturday.


Exactly. I get that she doesn't ship well, but do the connections just expect us to give them a free pass while others are taking more risks? Of course, I am referring to the risk of losing, not the risk of the animal's health.

[cj]

Can't you go along to get along, just once? :rolleyes:

I never miss a chance to mock the pathetic Zenyatta campaigns. Yes, I can't stand the schedule. I like the horse, not the connections. I don't think I've ever disliked a horse. Just want to get that off my chest.

[Dahoss9698]

Exactly. I get that she doesn't ship well, but do the connections just expect us to give them a free pass while others are taking more risks?

Yes, I really think they do. Her rabid fans help this along as well.

[cj]

Yes, I really think they do. Her rabid fans help this along as well.

Yes, but she dances.

[RXB]

BUZZZZZT

Wrong. The Apple Blossom was the immediate target out of John Shirreff's mouth when asked what there plans were for her after her 'unretirement.'

Shirreffs told DRF that no decision has been made on Zenyatta's schedule, but indicated that they would like to return to Oaklawn Park for the Apple Blossom Handicap (gr. I) in Hot Springs, Ark., on April 3.
-- http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/54862/zenyatta-back-to-work-at-hollywood-park (January 18th, 2010)


It hadn't been officially announced, but the discussions had already started, it was already rumoured throughout blogosphere that an Oaklawn meeting was in the works, and therefore Zenyatta was not being prepared to ship there just to face "a bunch of tomato cans."

From Jan 8 (ten days before the official unretirement announcement by Z's people):

http://farewelltokings.com/2010/01/zenyatta-2010/

From Jan 18:

http://www.tripledeadheat.ca/2010/01/welcome-back-zenyatta-and-chantal.html

[thaskalos]

I never miss a chance to mock the pathetic Zenyatta campaigns. Not surprisingly...you were a little more restrained when it came to mocking Rachel's equally pathetic campaign this year...

[bigmack]

Not surprisingly...you were a little more restrained when it came to mocking Rachel's equally pathetic campaign this year...
Oh, boy. Gonna be hard for C to respond to that. :rolleyes:

[thaskalos]

Oh, boy. Gonna be hard for C to respond to that. :rolleyes:Oh...I'm sorry. I didn't know that the point of our replies was to stump the other poster, making it impossible for him to respond.

No wonder your replies are so irrefutable...:rolleyes:

[bigmack]

making it impossible for him to respond.

No wonder your replies are so irrefutable...:rolleyes:
Imposseriss you say? Behold.

Hit it, C.

[chickenhead]

Rachel was losing during her campaign this year. I don't really get the "Rachel's shitty schedule" thing. She ran about where she belonged, it was just where that turned out to be was sad compared to 2009. If she had rounded back into '09 form towards the end here and was breathing fire getting ready to throw down in the Classic, it'd be a valid thing to talk about -- but she didn't, and she wasn't.

In retrospect, if not foresight, her schedule this year fit her abilities this year.

[WinterTriangle]

He said he doesn't expect her to win.

He said that last year, too.

[jonnielu]

Who would tell people to quit there job to bet horses? It is laughable, even you don't believe it.

Who told people to quit their job to bet horses? Do you not read much... or do you just not comprehend much of what you read? I don't just believe it, I know it.

jdl

[FenceBored]

It hadn't been officially announced, but the discussions had already started, it was already rumoured throughout blogosphere that an Oaklawn meeting was in the works, and therefore Zenyatta was not being prepared to ship there just to face "a bunch of tomato cans."

From Jan 8 (ten days before the official unretirement announcement by Z's people):

http://farewelltokings.com/2010/01/zenyatta-2010/

From Jan 18:

http://www.tripledeadheat.ca/2010/01/welcome-back-zenyatta-and-chantal.html

Of course the Apple Blossom would be a focus of speculation (which is all you linked to), being the first distaff G1 on the calendar outside California. But, the reasons for Zenyatta being pointed there don't rely on RA or any other horse in training. It's the Azeri route to HOY (Apple Blossom followed by the top California distaff races up to the BC). They tried it in 2008 and it didn't work, they left off the Apple Blossom in 2009 and might have felt that would have made the difference in HOY (doubt it, but whatever), now on the third try they included it again.

[jonnielu]

Happy to see you realize the error of your ways.

Look, Chump; if you were posting at some tangential handicapping site you might get away with your outlandish, fraudulent claims. Truth is, folk 'round here don't take kindly to dolts promising guaranteed profits to the uninformed.

In any event, you remain a stone cold troll. Run along.

Is that the best you can do? Some more name calling. Hey, I've been around here awhile, long enough to know that you represent the few. Just because you can't do it, doesn't mean that it can't be done, or that there aren't people doing it. It just means that you can't do it.

BTW - I don't guarantee profits, and I'm still waiting for you to substantiate your claims.

jdl

[Robert Fischer]

Zenyatta's 2010 campaign was so awful that a huge Z fan such as myself has to look at subtleties for inspiration.


If Martin Garcia didn't go (23.81) (23.47) (24.59) in the Santa Margarita, Zenyatta may have gotten the loss out of her way by now considering the traffic, and Mike Smithery she overcame in that race.


Her most impressive race on paper may have been the Clement Hirsch.
The race was limited to only 8.5furlongs in distance, and Martin Garcia wasn't in the race, which automatically contributed a lot to the average intelligence of the rival jockeys.;)
Because of the better game plan (and the fact that the typical group of G3 f&M of 2010 campaign lacked a horse competitive with Z), they finally went slow enough getting 6/8ths in 75.11.

The Apple Blossom was probably her most visually impressive race of the 2010BCPS (breeders-cup-practice-season :sleeping:).
Was kinda Cool seeing a horse close with a sweeping move on the turn over a dirt surface, w/out appearing to show her "bottom" (to anyone but the competition) images/UBGX/04.gif !

[WinterTriangle]

Nashoba's Key might be better. We'll never know because Shirreffs ducked her with a late scratch.

Somebody posted the story about this in another topic last week.

Why is it okay for RA to scratch if she's deemed by her trainer to not be 100%....but you don't seem to afford Zen's trainer the same absolution?

When a trainer says a horse isn't 100%, I prefer the horse not run. I did not have a problem with RA not running the AP, as her trainer said she wasn't raceworthy. I had nothing else to go on.

Do you have *inside* informaton that Zen was 100% that day? Ditto, do you have inside information that RA wasn't before the AP?

Just wondering how one makes these assessments if one is not in the paddock doing a vet inspection?

[FenceBored]

Somebody posted the story about this in another topic last week.

Why is it okay for RA to scratch if she's deemed by her trainer to not be 100%....but you don't seem to afford Zen's trainer the same absolution?

When a trainer says a horse isn't 100%, I prefer the horse not run. I did not have a problem with RA not running the AP, as her trainer said she wasn't raceworthy. I had nothing else to go on.

Do you have *inside* informaton that Zen was 100% that day? Ditto, do you have inside information that RA wasn't before the AP?

Just wondering how one makes these assessments if one is not in the paddock doing a vet inspection?

Why is it okay in your mind for some people to perpetually beat up on Jackson/Asmussen for pulling out of the AB deal, while CJ bringing up the Zenyatta scratch out of the race with Nashoba's Key has to be pushed back on after the second occurance? Haven't seen you jumping in to try and squelch the AB stuff.

CJ's just giving them a little of their own back and you think it has to be stopped for fairness's sake? On both general and specific principles, oy. :faint:

[WinterTriangle]

Why is it okay in your mind for some people to perpetually beat up on Jackson/Asmussen for pulling out of the AB deal

I asked CJ a question based on words he specifically posted. Are you answering for him?

You, on the other hand, are claiming to "read my mind."

:D

Explain to me where I beat up on JJ/As for pulling out of the AB deal. I just re-read my own post, and it specifically said: "I did not have a problem with RA not running the AP, as her trainer said she wasn't raceworthy. "

As for reading my mind, it's rather funny you would, or could claim what is, and what isn't, okay in my mind.



If you need to post your post to someone else, please do so. I can't be held responsible for what OTHER PEOPLE post.....or um...........have in their minds. I'll leave the mind reading to you, however, since obviously, you know what everyone thinks.

[mountainman]

History is replete with incredible horses who, fairly or not, just don't invoke a sense of awe commensurate with their achievements. Colin, Buckpasser, Native Diver and even, to some extent, the incomparable Dr Fager come to mind as examples. In most cases, the slight is explainable. Colin, for instance, was soon overshadowed by the flashier Man O' War; Native Diver was regarded as a provincial phenom; Buckpasser was thrashed by Damascus in the "race of the century," and Dr Fager did not compete in the triple crown.

Justifiably or not, Zenyatta seems destined for similar status as a lesser god. Or maybe not. Only history will decide that, and even hard- core enthusiasts on message boards like this won't care about the verdict. They'll be busy debating the merits of some future stalwart. In fact, a case can be made that, of all great thoroughbreds, only Man O' War and Secretariat have truly transcended time. (It helps, I suppose, to be big and red-or called "Big Red.") Thus the type of "immortality" that Zenyatta's supporters so urgently argue she's entitled to doesn't even exist-or is near impossible to attain.

[cj]

Not surprisingly...you were a little more restrained when it came to mocking Rachel's equally pathetic campaign this year...

Once she lost TWICE, I'm not sure what people expected. I did knock the Monmouth race as a joke after the Fleur de Lis.

[cj]

Somebody posted the story about this in another topic last week.

Why is it okay for RA to scratch if she's deemed by her trainer to not be 100%....but you don't seem to afford Zen's trainer the same absolution?

When a trainer says a horse isn't 100%, I prefer the horse not run. I did not have a problem with RA not running the AP, as her trainer said she wasn't raceworthy. I had nothing else to go on.

Do you have *inside* informaton that Zen was 100% that day? Ditto, do you have inside information that RA wasn't before the AP?

Just wondering how one makes these assessments if one is not in the paddock doing a vet inspection?

When did Rachel scratch a few days before a race she was actually entered in? I don't recall any. Saying you won't run weeks in advance is hardly the same thing.

[WinterTriangle]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

Not surprisingly...you were a little more restrained when it came to mocking Rachel's equally pathetic campaign this year...


Actually, in all fairness to CJ, I did not surmise from his posts on either Zen or RA that he gave either one a big PASS this year.

He is more restrained with RA since he has more faith in her abilities, and in comparison, has little to no faith in Zenyatta's.

But he didn't gush over RA this year.

[FenceBored]

I asked CJ a question based on words he specifically posted. Are you answering for him?

You, on the other hand, are claiming to "read my mind."

:D



Not at all. I read your posts. I see what arouses your ire enough to respond, and what doesn't.


Explain to me where I beat up on JJ/As for pulling out of the AB deal. I just re-read my own post, and it specifically said: "I did not have a problem with RA not running the AP, as her trainer said she wasn't raceworthy. "


Never said you did. I said I don't remember you ever pushing back against it the way you're doing with CJ and the Nashoba's Key incident.


As for reading my mind, it's rather funny you would, or could claim what is, and what isn't, okay in my mind.


Again, I don't claim to read your mind. I read your posts.


If you need to post your post to someone else, please do so. I can't be held responsible for what OTHER PEOPLE post.....or um...........have in their minds. I'll leave the mind reading to you, however, since obviously, you know what everyone thinks.

I posted to whom I needed to post.

[cj]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

Not surprisingly...you were a little more restrained when it came to mocking Rachel's equally pathetic campaign this year...


Actually, in all fairness to CJ, I did not surmise from his posts on either Zen or RA that he gave either one a big PASS this year.

He is more restrained with RA since he has more faith in her abilities, and in comparison, has little to no faith in Zenyatta's.

But he didn't gush over RA this year.

Had Rachel come out and won this year and raced in uninspiring races restricted to females, I would have been very disappointed. She lost, so all bets were off. There was no point putting her in against G1 males when she couldn't beat G3 females. Once she won the Fleur de Lis, I thought the Monmouth entry was a joke and said as much.

As for Zenayatta's ability, all I've said is it is a shame we won't really get a chance to see what she has this year until the last race. She is 6, nearly 7, and it may very well be too late.

[KingChas]

DanG, one of the sharpest players and judges of flesh you will find (imo), and most importantly a gentleman does not post anymore, but I caught one of his gems today. it was in response to a question of "why so polarizing" http://www.homebased2.com/forums/showpost.php?p=93556&postcount=3

I think he is spot on.


" A fundamental challenge to the speed figure establishment who can’t quantify grade-1 caliber closers."

Where's the bullseye Icon?

[the little guy]

" A fundamental challenge to the speed figure establishment who can’t quantify grade-1 caliber closers."

Where's the bullseye Icon?


Actually, it's the fradulent self-serving falsehood that adherents use to defend a slow horse.

There actually is an emoticon for that kind of comment...... :liar:

[BluegrassProf]

DanG, one of the sharpest players and judges of flesh you will find (imo), and most importantly a gentleman does not post anymore, but I caught one of his gems today. it was in response to a question of "why so polarizing" http://www.homebased2.com/forums/sh...556&postcount=3

I think he is spot on.Right on, Dan-cum-Dean. Real-world stuff be damned - it's all bias and spite and probably socialist inclinations.

At least someone's making it simple for us sour sods. Gooooo team!

In all faux seriousness: Dan-O's post toootally doesn't sound like anything I've heard anywhere else. What a stud.

[Robert Fischer]

Actually, it's the fradulent self-serving falsehood that adherents use to defend a slow horse.

There actually is an emoticon for that kind of comment...... :liar:

booooo

[Dahoss9698]

When did Rachel scratch a few days before a race she was actually entered in? I don't recall any. Saying you won't run weeks in advance is hardly the same thing.

It wasn't even a few days. It was the morning of the race. Like at Churchill. Could you imagine the backlash if Rachel had been scratched out of the AB the morning of the race?

[Dahoss9698]

He said that last year, too.

Whether you like Beyer or not, at least his opinion is out there. There is no mistaking who or what he likes.

The same can't be said for many that criticize him.

[Fingal]

I find it strange that he'll be at Hollywood Park Saturday to see a horse he can't stand while at Belmont there's also a little BC preview day going on. Wouldn't have to do with HP / Oak Tree paying him an appearance fee ?

http://oaktreeracing.com/news/andy-beyer-to-guest-saturday-on-the-inside-scoop

[the little guy]

I find it strange that he'll be at Hollywood Park Saturday to see a horse he can't stand while at Belmont there's also a little BC preview day going on. Wouldn't have to do with HP / Oak Tree paying him an appearance fee ?

http://oaktreeracing.com/news/andy-beyer-to-guest-saturday-on-the-inside-scoop


It shouldn't, but I am continually amazed at some of the foolishness people post.

[bigmack]

There actually is an emoticon for that kind of comment...... :liar:
What's that, twice in 3500 posts? It's like Halley's Comet.

[thaskalos]

Whether you like Beyer or not, at least his opinion is out there. There is no mistaking who or what he likes.

The same can't be said for many that criticize him.Beyer is not shy about voicing his opinions...but some of them are not thought out very clearly.

In his first book "Picking Winners", he voiced the astounding opinion that the pace of the race does not affect the race's final running time...causing horseplayers nationwide to shake their heads in disbelief. He was obviously so embarrassed by those comments...that they were not included in the book's more recent editions.

In his secong book "The Winning Horseplayer", while still maintaining that his speed figures were "the way, the truth, and the light"...he made the perplexing admission that, whenever his speed rating based opinions conflicted with the opinions of some noted "trip handicappers", THEIR opinions almost always proved to be the more accurate ones.

Hardly a ringing endorsement for the validity of the figures that he called the way, the truth, and the light...

Beyer may be a great writer, and his contagious enthusiasm for the game endears him to us all...but he is only human, and as likely to be wrong as anyone of us.

[Robert Fischer]

Beyer has EARNED a day's pay when ever he shows up at any track that plans to use his publicity.



...Oak Tree paying him an appearance fee ?

http://oaktreeracing.com/news/andy-beyer-to-guest-saturday-on-the-inside-scoop

[Robert Fischer]

Beyer is not shy about voicing his opinions...


In his first book "Picking Winners", he ...

In his secong book "The Winning Horseplayer", while still maintaining that his speed figures were "the way, the truth, and the light"...he ...


LET'S PUT IT THIS WAY - Beyer is relevant enough that people will go online and make posts about why they DISAGREE w/ his various books, articles, or theories.

It's almost common practice for noobs(not saying you are one) to start their horseplayer-dissertation with a rebuttal of various Beyerisms

[thaskalos]

LET'S PUT IT THIS WAY - Beyer is relevant enough that people will go online and make posts about why they DISAGREE w/ his various books, articles, or theories.

It's almost common practice for noobs(not saying you are one) to start their horseplayer-dissertation with a rebuttal of various BeyerismsForgive me Robert...but I have a hard time understanding you here.

This thread is about Beyer's opinion of Zenyatta...and I am only pointing out that Beyer is sometimes quick with an unsubstantiated opinion.

I like to think that I am as serious a handicapper and bettor as you, or anybody else on this board, and I hardly qualify to be placed among the noobs you refer to...(parenthesized comments noted.)

Nowhere did I say that Beyer was IRRELEVANT. I just didn't think that he was beyond any criticism...

If my post about Beyer was inaccurate...let me know where.

[KingChas]

Actually, it's the fradulent self-serving falsehood that adherents use to defend a slow horse.



"The race fell apart"
Is actually the fradulent self-serving falsehood that is used when the figs just didn't work and the wrong horse won.......... ;)

[mountainman]

Whether you like Beyer or not, at least his opinion is out there. There is no mistaking who or what he likes.

The same can't be said for many that criticize him.

Yes. He expresses strong opinions and offers no olive branch whatsoever to those opposing his views. I much admire that. A pundit should be bold, not bland.

[the little guy]

"The race fell apart"
Is actually the fradulent self-serving falsehood that is used when the figs just didn't work and the wrong horse won.......... ;)


If people actually knew how far their misguided beliefs about Andy Beyer fall from the truth they would be shocked.

[tubesockshakur]

An out? It is a prediction, one some would consider bold seeing how she will most likely be favored, second choice at worst.......going out on a limb there.....who does he expect to win?

[jonnielu]

If people actually knew how far their misguided beliefs about Andy Beyer fall from the truth they would be shocked.

Do you mean that he knows horse racing is not strictly one-dimensional, and has been keeping it secret all this time?

jdl

[WinterTriangle]

When did Rachel scratch a few days before a race she was actually entered in? I don't recall any. Saying you won't run weeks in advance is hardly the same thing.

Okay.

So you're suspicious of any horse that scratches a few days before a (big) race.

But not weeks in advance.

Unfortunately, most of racing doesn't appear to adhere to that kind of notification model.

[andymays]

This should be interesting. :)
------------------------------------


Oak Tree Racing • Andy Beyer To Guest Saturday On The Inside Scoop

http://oaktreeracing.com/news/andy-beyer-to-guest-saturday-on-the-inside-scoop

Excerpt:

Renowned author and longtime Washington Post columnist Andy Beyer will be Kurt Hoover’s guest on the first Inside Scoop of the Oak Tree meet at Hollywood Park on Saturday, Oct. 2.

[classhandicapper]

Nashoba's Key might be better. We'll never know because Shirreffs ducked her with a late scratch.

As much as I also respect Nashoba's Key, I feel confident there isn't much of a comparison between the two at their peaks. At the time they were set to meet, Zenyatta was extremely lightly raced. So it might have been a good battle. But very few horses are anywhere near their peak after 3-4 starts and I think Zenyatta would have handled her easily later that year.

[classhandicapper]

Actually, it's the fradulent self-serving falsehood that adherents use to defend a slow horse.

There actually is an emoticon for that kind of comment...... :liar:

I can't believe you seem to be actually defending speed figure comparisons across surfaces and especially without due consideration to occasional extreme paces.

The final times of closers are always related to the ability and pace action of the horses in front of them. Both synthetic and turf races are littered with extremely slow paces relative to dirt racing and they are also slower on average. So the top of the class structure on turf and synthetic is almost always going to be slower than the top of dirt racing and especially slower when individual horses get stuck in a series of especially slow paced races. That doesn't tell us much about their relative ability.

There are ways to try to normalize for this kind of thing and you can look at speed figures on turf and synthetic when the pace was more dirt like for clues, but other than that the comparisons are futile and mostly the efforts of people that don't understand the game.

[Phantombridgejumpe]

and it is a big IF, but IF she wins another BCC and is 20 for 20, to not put her in a list of top 10 MARES (Horses at least there would be an argument) of all time is nothing short of ignorant.

[bks]

the little guy wrote:
Actually, it's the fradulent self-serving falsehood that adherents use to defend a slow horse.

Please name some faster synthetic-based horses, Andy. Shouldn't be difficult, since she's slow.

[Dahoss9698]

Beyer may be a great writer, and his contagious enthusiasm for the game endears him to us all...but he is only human, and as likely to be wrong as anyone of us.

As you say, he's human. But I disagree he's as likely to be wrong. This is a discussion I have had before, so no real point in going over it again. But, some people's opinions are better than others because they have put in the time to become "experts" for a lack of a better term.

Horse racing and handicapping aren't something you you master overnight as you know. It take years and years to learn the nuances and as handicappers we can never learn enough. I've learned more in the last 5 years than I learned in the previous 10. But essentially I think there are some opinions who are more likely to be right, because the person having the opinion is an "expert".

[PaceAdvantage]

The polarization regarding opinion is there, and has been for some time. Like Beyer's article, we have someone that said she could not do something (then she did) and instead of saying "congrats, wow, I was way wrong about her ability", the bar is moved again and she has to jump over it again. No horse in our history has ever had that asked of them.

There is something more to this.

DanG, one of the sharpest players and judges of flesh you will find (imo), and most importantly a gentleman does not post anymore, but I caught one of his gems today. it was in response to a question of "why so polarizing" http://www.homebased2.com/forums/showpost.php?p=93556&postcount=3

I think he is spot on.I think Dan is as biased in his direction as he claims Zenyatta critics to be in the opposite direction.

That whole "A fundamental challenge to the speed figure establishment who can’t quantify grade-1 caliber closers" is a fantasy.

How exactly has the speed figure establishment gotten Zenyatta wrong? Are you telling me they have been perfect with every other horse who has ever run? They never get a figure wrong on dirt? They never get a front-runner's fig wrong?

This is a silly red herring.

They've gotten plenty of Zenyatta figures right. The finish margins lend much credence to this opinion.

[WinterTriangle]

Not at all. I read your posts. I see what arouses your ire enough to respond, and what doesn't.

I welcome you to continue your study of my posts. I'm sorry I don't remember stuff you write. I'll try to be more observant in the future.

I don't remember you ever pushing back against it the way you're doing with CJ and the Nashoba's Key incident.

There's a simple reason for that. :)

I don't agree with CJ's conclusion.

I doubt he has a huge problem with me, or anyone else, not *agreeing* with him.

Certainly not as much as you seem to. :D


Whether you like Beyer or not, at least his opinion is out there. There is no mistaking who or what he likes.

The same can't be said for many that criticize him.

Quoting Beyer's published opinion about Zen's chances in the BCC last year (slim to none) is hardly tantamount to "not liking him".


I would describe this decade as one in which Beyer certainly has "reduced importance." I still look over his figs in dirt sprints. There are thousands of races run internationally where the PPs don't even carry Beyer figs, so I guess a good % of the civilized world finds him unnecessary. Zenyatta's style has certainly rendered his figs useless, and he cannot seem to adjust his thinking....as a matter of fact, the more egg Zen throws on his face, the more he needs to write hit pieces about her. Like Randy Moss said about him: "sometimes you need to know when to pull another club out of the bag."

I think his model needs an update, sort of like when they take people off the street in the TV shows and get mercifully release them of their 70's and 80's hairstyles and clothes. :D

OTOH, nobody can stay relevant forever. Those who try often end up looking foolish.



One has to wonder about the ego(not to mention the zombie-like cult/religon implications) of those use the phrase "the way, the truth, the light" to describe his work. (or was it he himself?)

Passage in the bible: "Jesus said unto him, "I am the way, the truth, and the life."

Maybe it's just me, but using a phrase that described Jesus, in order to bestow honors on a man, is a laughable concept, ( if not somewhat offensive), and yet those who have uttered it seem to think they have a leg to stand on when they make references to Zenyatta fans going overboard. :lol:

[PaceAdvantage]

The Zenyatta campaign this year has not lacked in confidence at all.

They have done right by the horse.Stop with this nonsense.

And I have news for you. St Trinians IS a slouch. She had about $250,000 in career earnings coming into her race with Zenyatta...and it wasn't like she had 3 starts to her name either...

[the little guy]

I think Dan is as biased in his direction as he claims Zenyatta critics to be in the opposite direction.

That whole "A fundamental challenge to the speed figure establishment who can’t quantify grade-1 caliber closers" is a fantasy.

How exactly has the speed figure establishment gotten Zenyatta wrong? Are you telling me they have been perfect with every other horse who has ever run? They never get a figure wrong on dirt? They never get a front-runner's fig wrong?

This is a silly red herring.


Didn't you know, it's because she is different than any other horse that has ever come along? She is only part horse, a small part too, while being more human, and as such has great qualities like mercy and compassion as it relates to her opponents. She doesn't embarrass them by showing her true talents unless absolutely necessary to win. She is the great giver....to both horses and humans alike.....her two true kinfolk.

Please, refrain from comparing her to the many thousands of horses that have raced before her. Do not use the handicapping techniques that have been applied successfully in the past. These simply don't relate to the great Zenyatta as she is a breed and entity unto herself.

[WinterTriangle]

Andy Beyer in recent piece: I could not put Zenyatta on a list of all-time great racehorses.


I'm confused.

I'm looking at his piece from The Washington Post here after the BCC:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/11/07/AR2009110703043.html

in which he says (talking about Rachel and Zenatta):

"Her (Zenyatta's) performance Saturday was the one that defined her greatness..."

"near-unanimous agreement that the two of them rank among the greatest fillies of all time......"

Which is it, Andy?

[ralph_the_cat]

couldnt put Andy Beyer anywhere close to the list of greatest horse racing writers or handicappers... I dont get the difference between his work and Dwelt Starts work... both make me either laugh or say, boy that was gay

[Dahoss9698]

Quoting Beyer's published opinion about Zen's chances in the BCC last year (slim to none) is hardly tantamount to "not liking him".


I would describe this decade as one in which Beyer certainly has "reduced importance." I still look over his figs in dirt sprints. There are thousands of races run internationally where the PPs don't even carry Beyer figs, so I guess a good % of the civilized world finds him unnecessary. Zenyatta's style has certainly rendered his figs useless, and he cannot seem to adjust his thinking....as a matter of fact, the more egg Zen throws on his face, the more he needs to write hit pieces about her. Like Randy Moss said about him: "sometimes you need to know when to pull another club out of the bag."

I think his model needs an update, sort of like when they take people off the street in the TV shows and get mercifully release them of their 70's and 80's hairstyles and clothes. :D

OTOH, nobody can stay relevant forever. Those who try often end up looking foolish.



One has to wonder about the ego(not to mention the zombie-like cult/religon implications) of those use the phrase "the way, the truth, the light" to describe his work. (or was it he himself?)

Passage in the bible: "Jesus said unto him, "I am the way, the truth, and the life."

Maybe it's just me, but using a phrase that described Jesus, in order to bestow honors on a man, is a laughable concept, ( if not somewhat offensive), and yet those who have uttered it seem to think they have a leg to stand on when they make references to Zenyatta fans going overboard. :lol:

Wow. This is some post. Jealous much?

[Steve R]

[snip]...I suppose that up until now, she is slower than many horses out there, but we don't have any examples of any one of these faster horses with her record...[snip]
We do, however, have an example of a slower horse with a better record at the moment. Then again, if record is the ultimate metric, dissociated from speed, then Kincsem puts Zenyatta and all the other pretenders to shame. Fifty-four wins in 54 starts in the late 19th century including some of Europe's most prestigious races and against both males and females. Those include the Goodwood Cup in England (also won by horses such as Yeats, Ardross, Alycidon, Son-in-Law and Rabelais), the Grand Prix de Deauville in France (won by Swain, Perrault, Val de Loir, etc) and the Grosser Preis von Baden in Germany (Acatenango, Strawberry Road, Oleander, etc). I guess my point is that race record, while important, is one of the more overrated measures of quality we have. It's right up there with lifetime earnings (unless, of course, you believe Curlin belongs among the all-time greats). Seriously, though, even if Zenyatta wins 19 straight or retires with 20 straight, does anyone believe she compares to the likes of Sea-Bird, Secretariat, Brigadier Gerard, Man o' War, Tudor Minstrel, Ribot, Nearco, Citation, Spectacular Bid, Affirmed or Seattle Slew? As a side note, in 1955 the American Trainers Association named Gallorette the greatest filly of all time, ahead of Twilight Tear, Regret, Busher, etc. They did this despite a lifetime record of 72-21-20-13. She did, however, defeat the equivalent of today's Grade 1 level males on multiple occasions from sprint to classic distances. So I suppose what you beat and under what circumstances preempts race record alone in the eyes of some people. As for me, there are fillies and mares I've seen race that are mentioned rarely if at all among the all-time greats which I believe were superior to Zenyatta, including Princess Rooney, Inside Information and Susan's Girl. But that's just my opinion.

[DeanT]

Andy Beyer in recent piece: I could not put Zenyatta on a list of all-time great racehorses.


I'm confused.

I'm looking at his piece from The Washington Post here after the BCC:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/11/07/AR2009110703043.html

in which he says (talking about Rachel and Zenatta):

"Her (Zenyatta's) performance Saturday was the one that defined her greatness..."

"near-unanimous agreement that the two of them rank among the greatest fillies of all time......"

Which is it, Andy?

Nice catch.

[cj]

Nice catch.

Maybe he rethought it after she was campaigned so modestly this year.

[the little guy]

Nice catch.


No it's not.....it's a distortion of what was said.

Attributing greatness to her does NOT also mean he considers her an all-time great racehorse.

That's fairly obvious to be honest.

[Dahoss9698]

All time great racehorses is not the same as all time great fillies. Also, just because you are great doesn't mean you are an all time great. See the difference?

Could we get any more petty in trying to discredit the guy?

[Dahoss9698]

No it's not.....it's a distortion of what was said.

Attributing greatness to her does NOT also mean he considers her an all-time great racehorse.

That's fairly obvious to be honest.

You stole my thunder. Mediocre minds?

[DeanT]

That whole "A fundamental challenge to the speed figure establishment who can’t quantify grade-1 caliber closers" is a fantasy.

It's an interesting question and imo there are oplenty of nuances. Grade I races, esp at Classic distances have a less than perfect smooth correlation to figs. Whereas we can pop most of the racing in NA in a nice compartmentalized box (i.e. by my database, top figs in various pubs hit around 27%), it is different with Gr1s and with closers esp. The last several years I have a 15% for the same horses. Worse with closers.

I look at it kinda like this - if college football had stats that showed a home team won at an 85% clip and it was a more than solid factor in W/L prediction, I would add it heavily to the line. If the NFL, in contrast had a 70% diff in predictably in home and away with a 50/50 type stat, I would use that as well.

Modern software using figs and other non-hidden factors rarely even predicts Zenyatta to win her races (and adding poly to the mix f's it up even more). I have seen two such packages (that are excellent packages, with a high level of success using databases) and I have seen her picked for second or worse several times. Why? Because she does not conform, just like several GR1's do not conform.

Grade 1 races, imo, are the most difficult to asses using only the conventional. And horses like her make them even more difficult.

[classhandicapper]

That whole "A fundamental challenge to the speed figure establishment who can’t quantify grade-1 caliber closers" is a fantasy.

How exactly has the speed figure establishment gotten Zenyatta wrong? Are you telling me they have been perfect with every other horse who has ever run? They never get a figure wrong on dirt? They never get a front-runner's fig wrong?

This is a silly red herring.

They've gotten plenty of Zenyatta figures right. The finish margins lend much credence to this opinion.

It's not that the figures are wrong.

If anything I'd argue that Beyer "inflated" a few of Zenyatta's figures just as he also did with Rachel.

It's that speed figures earned on dirt do not translate to speed figures earned on turf or synthetic and virtually everyone that makes them understands that and some of the issues why.

So the criticisms of Zenyatta should probably be more limited to her handling (even though I disagree with some of those criticisms too because of double standards related to east coast west coast bias).

Speed figures should more or less be off the table for the more thoughtful among us.

Using speed figures is kind of like comparing guys that hit home runs where one of them is in the most homer friendly ballpark in the major leagues and the other in the worst. You can do it, but you'd pretty much always be wrong about who was better or the gap between them.

[thaskalos]

As you say, he's human. But I disagree he's as likely to be wrong. This is a discussion I have had before, so no real point in going over it again. But, some people's opinions are better than others because they have put in the time to become "experts" for a lack of a better term.

Horse racing and handicapping aren't something you you master overnight as you know. It take years and years to learn the nuances and as handicappers we can never learn enough. I've learned more in the last 5 years than I learned in the previous 10. But essentially I think there are some opinions who are more likely to be right, because the person having the opinion is an "expert".Do you remember the furor that a Steve Davidowitz column caused on this board...when he showered Zenyatta with accolades, calling her one of the best horses he has ever seen? Wouldn't you agree that Davidowitz is an expert too? I mean...Beyer himself credits Steve D. with being his(Beyer's) mentor, and one of the most astute players in this game.

So, we have 2 genuine experts with conflicting opinions about the same horse...can they both be right? Which one of them is wrong?

Who cares, I say...

Opinions are opinions, and they should all be taken with a grain of salt...regardless of the source.

Perhaps my statement that Beyer can be as wrong as anyone of us was an exaggeration...but I submit that, after years and years of serious play, the horseplayer qualifies to be called an expert himself.

[ralph_the_cat]

Do you remember the furor that a Steve Davidowitz column caused on this board...when he showered Zenyatta with accolades, calling her one of the best horses he has ever seen? Wouldn't you agree that Davidowitz is an expert too? I mean...Beyer himself credits Steve D. with being his(Beyer's) mentor, and one of the most astute players in this game.

So, we have 2 genuine experts with conflicting opinions about the same horse...can they both be right? Which one of them is wrong?

Who cares, I say...

Opinions are opinions, and they should all be taken with a grain of salt...regardless of the source.

Perhaps my statement that Beyer can be as wrong as anyone of us was an exaggeration...but I submit that, after years and years of serious play, the horseplayer qualifies to be called an expert himself.


How is Andy Beyer an expert? Working in the business and contributing to the sport doesnt make anyone an expert. If Andy Beyer is an expert, then Ken Rudolph is one the greatest experts of all time.

[Robert Fischer]

I like to think that I am as serious a handicapper and bettor as you, or anybody else on this board, and I hardly qualify to be placed among the noobs you refer to...(parenthesized comments noted.)

I shouldn't have included that comment. It honestly was not meant to apply to you at all, but in hindsight I can see how it would be hard to just ignore it.

:) strike the comment from the record your honor ;)

[thaskalos]

I shouldn't have included that comment. It honestly was not meant to apply to you at all, but in hindsight I can see how it would be hard to just ignore it.

:) strike the comment from the record your honor ;)No problem. My respect for you remains intact. :)

[cj]

How is Andy Beyer an expert? Working in the business and contributing to the sport doesnt make anyone an expert. If Andy Beyer is an expert, then Ken Rudolph is one the greatest experts of all time.

Just when you think you've seen the most inane posts of all time, a new one emerges.

[BluegrassProf]

Who cares, I say...
Carl cares. Carl cares thiiiiiiiiiiis much. :jump:

[ralph_the_cat]

Just when you think you've seen the most inane posts of all time, a new one emerges.

CJ, you dry hump Andy like its a sport... get a grip. Do the honors of explaining how Andy is an expert.

[the little guy]

CJ, you dry hump Andy like its a sport... get a grip. Do the honors of explaining how Andy is an expert.


Your foolishness has already been established here. Stop piling on yourself....it's humiliating.

[cj]

CJ, you dry hump Andy like its a sport... get a grip. Do the honors of explaining how Andy is an expert.

Dry hump...yeah, sure.

He is an expert because I know for fact he has won money, hitting several large P6s and Twin Trifectas. To compare him to Ken Rudolph is the height of absurdity. Many of his ideas are in wide use today, and not just his figures. What has Ken Rudolph done for the game besides get drunk while hosting the Eclipse Awards?

[ArlJim78]

Ken Rudolph more of an expert than Beyer? A clear indication that this thread has run aground

[ralph_the_cat]

Your foolishness has already been established here. Stop piling on yourself....it's humiliating.

exactly what I thought...

guy is an expert on speed figures... and you can call him an expert writer for all I care... but to call him an expert at anything else in this sport has no substance to it, the guy cant even recognize a great race horse, one of the greatest of all times, because his big head blocks logical thinking. On top of that, he fails miserably every year in informing the public on potential "great" Derby prospects, I think until this year, he couldnt even identify a 3 yo to run ITM in the KY Derby, his ability to recognize great race horses, running at the pinnacle of our sport is gross... you can call me the fool. But its in his writings, reconsider who the fool is. When it comes to horses at the pinnacle of our sport, his opinions are grossly squashed, again and again, time after time. Ya, expert on speed figures, an expert writer, believe what you want-ignore the rest, the jokes on you

[riskman]

Andy Beyer in recent piece: I could not put Zenyatta on a list of all-time great racehorses.


I'm confused.

I'm looking at his piece from The Washington Post here after the BCC:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/11/07/AR2009110703043.html

in which he says (talking about Rachel and Zenatta):

"Her (Zenyatta's) performance Saturday was the one that defined her greatness..."

"near-unanimous agreement that the two of them rank among the greatest fillies of all time......"

Which is it, Andy?

Beyer mentions "greatness" as Zenyatta beating males in the BCC. Never done before. Beyer never mentions Zenyatta never having run 1-1/4, putting her undefeated record on the line, facing 10 Grade 1 winning males, 8 of which were multiple Grade 1 winners, from the U.S. and Europe. Supposedly the best the world had to offer. She rose to the challenge and and came out a winner again.But......it was on synthetics. And there lies the problem with Beyer as it does with others.

The second statement he is writing about the public or horseracing fans etc. Beyer did not give his personal opinion. Here is his quote "But there will be near-unanimous agreement that the two of them rank among the greatest fillies of all time, as well as regret that they never faced each other in competition. Rachel Alexandra skipped the Classic because owner Jess Jackson didn't want to race her on Santa Anita's synthetic Pro-Ride surface.
Again, he talks about synthetics.

Thats my take.

[the little guy]

exactly what I thought...

guy is an expert on speed figures... and you can call him an expert writer for all I care... but to call him an expert at anything else in this sport has no substance to it, the guy cant even recognize a great race horse, one of the greatest of all times, because his big head blocks logical thinking. On top of that, he fails miserably every year in informing the public on potential "great" Derby prospects, I think until this year, he couldnt even identify a 3 yo to run ITM in the KY Derby, his ability to recognize great race horses, running at the pinnacle of our sport is gross... you can call me the fool. But its in his writings, reconsider who the fool is. When it comes to horses at the pinnacle of our sport, his opinions are grossly squashed, again and again, time after time. Ya, expert on speed figures, an expert writer, believe what you want-ignore the rest, the jokes on you



More drivel.

[ralph_the_cat]

Dry hump...yeah, sure.

He is an expert because I know for fact he has won money, hitting several large P6s and Twin Trifectas. To compare him to Ken Rudolph is the height of absurdity. Many of his ideas are in wide use today, and not just his figures. What has Ken Rudolph done for the game besides get drunk while hosting the Eclipse Awards?

see, there you go... no logical thinking... you ask me what has ken done for the sport... so an expert relates to what you have done for the sport?... your thinking is grossly foolish. Mentioning Ken Rudolph was nothing more than to draw your attention, that said, Ken has picked more winners in the KY Derby, and will probably have a higher ROI on the KY Derby, that means little to me, but atleast it says more than what you have suggested, again, ANDY has ALWAYS lacked in understanding the horses racing at the pinnacle of our sport, proven time and time again, far from an expert at identifying greatness-or talent for that matter.

[BluegrassProf]

exactly what I thought...the jokes on you :D As usual, the more the trash piles up, the more worms join the feast.

Heck of a point you've got there. Heck of a point. I suggest you write a book.

[ralph_the_cat]

More drivel.
your comments lack in suggesting anything intelligent:ThmbDown:

[BluegrassProf]

your comments lack in suggesting anything intelligent:ThmbDown:Ha! Pwnirony!

Luvs. :blush:

[classhandicapper]

I realize that synthetics may be on their way out on CA, but what about Europe, Dubai and the rest of the world etc.... where they are building new courses and seem quite happy with them because a reasonable percentage of both turf and dirt horses handle the surfaces well.

I'm not not like this is going away on a global basis.

[PaceAdvantage]

I find it strange that he'll be at Hollywood Park Saturday to see a horse he can't stand can't stand? is that how you read it?

odd.

[castaway01]

can't stand? is that how you read it?

odd.

Unless you bow and genuflect, you "can't stand" the horse.

[ralph_the_cat]

Ha! Pwnirony!

Luvs. :blush:

Post that, rather than prove me wrong, you must be an expert too

[turfnsport]

How is Andy Beyer an expert? Working in the business and contributing to the sport doesnt make anyone an expert. If Andy Beyer is an expert, then Ken Rudolph is one the greatest experts of all time.

Ralph,

If Dwelt A. Start's probation officer would let him post on public forums, I bet he would say your post is really funny and really gay.

[PaceAdvantage]

Nice catch.No it's not. Read it again.

One states "list of all-time great racehorses"

The other states "rank among the greatest fillies of all time"

There is a big difference there, as I'm sure you now see.

[PaceAdvantage]

How is Andy Beyer an expert? Working in the business and contributing to the sport doesnt make anyone an expert. If Andy Beyer is an expert, then Ken Rudolph is one the greatest experts of all time.Just when you thought it couldn't...ahhh...the heck with it... :lol:

[PaceAdvantage]

Just when you think you've seen the most inane posts of all time, a new one emerges.I swear I didn't see your reply first... :lol:

mediocre minds, as dahoss recently said...

[ralph_the_cat]

Ralph,

If Dwelt A. Start's probation officer would let him post on public forums, I bet he would say your post is really funny and really gay.

I was hoping you were reading this thread, figured it would catch your eyes.

[DeanT]

No it's not. Read it again.

One states "list of all-time great racehorses"

The other states "rank among the greatest fillies of all time"

There is a big difference there, as I'm sure you now see.

I ain't too bad a reader. I passed grade three :)

It is the two articles themselves which have a completely different tone, and as usual with Wintertriangle, she does not post an opinion that is as flimsy as not reading something so simple correctly.

Think this: ""near-unanimous agreement that the two of them rank among the greatest fillies of all time......"

Then him writing a story yesterday about Rachel not "being one of the greatest racehorses of all time"

It's speculous and it would make little sense, and so did yesterday's story with a different horse's name.

[Robert Fischer]

On one hand Zenyatta tends to "perform" better than her popular statistics(such as raw time, speed figures, etc...).

For example in the Clement Hirsch - 1st you had them going the ridiculous distance of 8.5Furlongs - a distance that horseZ in her division
(I call Zs division: "GradeI classic-distance dirt males",
but really includes races from 9, 9.5, 10 furlongs for dirt/synth and from 9 - 12F on turf, and she lacks a penis...)
should basically never go 8.5Furlongs unless it's a comeback race meant for training purposes, or some high-stakes special matchup vs. a rival in the GradeIMiler divison.

So you have this weird distance...
Then you had the lack of a greedy pace which 'phenom' Martin Garcia seems to go out and ruin tacticZ in half of Zenyatta's races... giving an artificially fast pace that of course aids Zenyatta when/if it occurs,

And finally here you had the other jockeys ride seemingly to acknowledge the realization that Zenyatta was a $2.20 OVERLAY with a 1-run style and a legit question as to whether M.Smith would even adjust to a very slow pace.

So they went to 6/8ths in slower than 75Seconds:sleeping: (emoticons aside it was the proper strategy and the opposite of boring), and Mike Smith did a fine job by reacting to properly and adapting to the tedious 1:15.11 six furlongs,
- instead of dooming Zenyatta by ignoring the perfectly executed tacticZ of Bejarano.

So Zenyatta had to move early and wide, and close against a perfectly ridden horse(r.Bejarano Interval) who had not ridden enough total distance(just 1 1/16th race!) nor a fast enough 3/4ths to have taken anything out of Interval to be primed for anything less than a career best finishing 'gear'.

Zenyatta in the process of overcoming these various factorZ racked up a very high PF(i forget the abbreviation) "performance figure", and her PF/BSF ratio for the Clement Hirsch was one of the higher that I recall for 2010.

Zenyatta's style, the frequency that she leaves her division's race distance, and the frequency that she races others with such a gap in talent, contribute to a fairly high occurance of running races with a big PF/BSF ratio when compared to the other contenders in the "GradeI Classic Distance Dirt Male" division. However she is such a fan favorite, that this doesn't lead to the overlays you would expect with such a Ztatistical anomaly. She is generally relatively close to fair-odds when racing her local weak "out of division" races against females, often with pretend graded status, and often at odd distances like 8.5furlongs. Because of her popularity, "Z" may actually be slightly underlayed when running in the Classic in spite of her overlooked PF/BSF ratios.

[the little guy]

I ain't too bad a reader. I passed grade three :)

It is the two articles themselves which have a completely different tone, and as usual with Wintertriangle, she does not post an opinion that is as flimsy as not reading something so simple correctly.

Think this: ""near-unanimous agreement that the two of them rank among the greatest fillies of all time......"

Then him writing a story yesterday about Rachel not "being one of the greatest racehorses of all time"

It's speculous and it would make little sense, and so did yesterday's story with a different horse's name.



In reality, this is all an irrelevent argument, and typical internet spinning. Instead of addressing the issue at hand, or actually trying to argue the well thought out points of the article, some flimsy case is made against the writer.

[RXB]

Stop with this nonsense.

And I have news for you. St Trinians IS a slouch. She had about $250,000 in career earnings coming into her race with Zenyatta...and it wasn't like she had 3 starts to her name either...

Many races into his career, you could've said the same thing about Cigar.

Funny how a barn change and a surface change (and in St T's case, a continent change) can make a difference.

I didn't see any other fillies or mares make her look like a slouch.

[FenceBored]

Beyer mentions "greatness" as Zenyatta beating males in the BCC. Never done before. Beyer never mentions Zenyatta never having run 1-1/4, putting her undefeated record on the line, facing 10 Grade 1 winning males, 8 of which were multiple Grade 1 winners, from the U.S. and Europe. Supposedly the best the world had to offer. She rose to the challenge and and came out a winner again.But......it was on synthetics. And there lies the problem with Beyer as it does with others.


BS, and that's not supposed BS. The Cartier HOY winner wasn't there, the Eclipse HOY winner wasn't there. Not to mention the Southern Hemisphere contingent. Nope, not the best in the world, even supposedly.

[FenceBored]

I welcome you to continue your study of my posts. I'm sorry I don't remember stuff you write. I'll try to be more observant in the future.

There's a simple reason for that. :)

I don't agree with CJ's conclusion.

I doubt he has a huge problem with me, or anyone else, not *agreeing* with him.

Certainly not as much as you seem to. :D


Don't flatter yourself ... any more than you already do. :faint:

[turfnsport]

I was hoping you were reading this thread, figured it would catch your eyes.

LOL..Yeah comparing Beyer and Rudulph and then wait for me to become unglued, nice plan... I'm surprised you did not just PM me that comment.

[DeanT]

In reality, this is all an irrelevent argument, and typical internet spinning. Instead of addressing the issue at hand, or actually trying to argue the well thought out points of the article, some flimsy case is made against the writer.

I did that on page one. I did not like the article and told you why.

I was addressing Pace's question above.

[ralph_the_cat]

LOL..Yeah comparing Beyer and Rudulph and then wait for me to become unglued, nice plan... I'm surprised you did not just PM me that comment.

I did start my stop watch after I posted that, was disappointed it took you close to an hour to respond after the dwelt starts comment, so I had to go to the Ken comments.

[ralph_the_cat]

Andy Beyer is such a moron at understanding the individual animals at the pinnacle of our sport that he calls a Mare who won the BC Classic, one of the greatest fillies of all time.:lol:

[classhandicapper]

Stop with this nonsense.

And I have news for you. St Trinians IS a slouch. She had about $250,000 in career earnings coming into her race with Zenyatta...and it wasn't like she had 3 starts to her name either...

Personally, I rank St Trinians as the 3rd best mare to race in the US this year. She has some physical issues and "may" have only gotten so good for awhile because of her trainer (if you know what I mean), but if anything I am probably underestimating her. If she could handle dirt, she might have had a great chance to beat Rachel this year and be ranked second.

If she makes it back next year and can handle the surface and training on dirt, I think you'll see a dynamite mare for at least a few races before she goes bad again.

Dirt and soundness are major question marks for her. IMO ability is not.

[the little guy]

I did that on page one. I did not like the article and told you why.

I was addressing Pace's question above.


OK, and that makes it OK to do what you and Winter Triangle then did later?

I must be missing something.

[Robert Fischer]

Many races into his career, you could've said the same thing about Cigar.

Funny how a barn change and a surface change (and in St T's case, a continent change) can make a difference.

I didn't see any other fillies or mares make her look like a slouch.

ST was/is a talent.

She has major problems with conformation. From the outside looking in its only a guess as to whether or not she is in significant pain. Even if she does have pain, you'd have to guess that they have her feeling good.
Mike Mitchell is a wizard at getting claiming horses to run good as new again.
ST has a lot of heart and she really tried hard when facing Zenyatta, and she was asked for a lot.

[DeanT]

OK, and that makes it OK to do what you and Winter Triangle then did later?

I must be missing something.

Is there a rule on a chat board you cant go back and look at someone's writings in year one and compare them to year two?

Look, I know he is a buddy of yours and I like him too. But if he is going to write an article he might be criticized.

Steve D wrote an article about the same topic and was criticized for pages, bringing out everything he ever wrote that was known to man.

It's fair game for Steve D, and it is fair game for Beyer.

[riskman]

BS, and that's not supposed BS. The Cartier HOY winner wasn't there, the Eclipse HOY winner wasn't there. Not to mention the Southern Hemisphere contingent. Nope, not the best in the world, even supposedly.

That was not the point of my post.

[WinterTriangle]

some people's opinions are better than others because they have put in the time to become "experts" for a lack of a better term.

Horse racing and handicapping aren't something you you master overnight as you know.

Maybe we are not talking on the same subject.

I give Mr. Beyer his due on creating BSFs. He's a well-educated man, and BSF's is his baby, and it is a brilliant model. But it is only a model.

Many scientists and physicists have had models.......but there have been developments since then that add to, challenge, question parts of their models!

I see Mr. Beyer as the creator of a system, and in THAT he is an expert. (I do stop short at "the way, the light" and I'm sorry if you think that implies any kind of jealousy on my part. :D It's almost too absurd a phrase to not laugh about.)


But creating a figure system is not the *same* as being a great handicapper. These are two different things. Some of you equate them, and that is where some people have problems.

Again, the zeal some of you have concerning anyone who challenges anything "beyer" is exactly what you guys accuse Zenyatta fans of doing......

[the little guy]

Is there a rule on a chat board you cant go back and look at someone's writings in year one and compare them to year two?

Look, I know he is a buddy of yours and I like him too. But if he is going to write an article he might be criticized.





More circular logic and irrelevant information.

Once again, the argument is not being argued.

[Dahoss9698]

Maybe we are not talking on the same subject.

I give Mr. Beyer his due on creating BSFs. He's a well-educated man, and BSF's is his baby, and it is a brilliant model. But it is only a model.

Many scientists and physicists have had models.......but there have been developments since then that add to, challenge, question parts of their models!

I see Mr. Beyer as the creator of a system, and in THAT he is an expert. (I do stop short at "the way, the light" and I'm sorry if you think that implies any kind of jealousy on my part. :D It's almost too absurd a phrase to not laugh about.)


But creating a figure system is not the *same* as being a great handicapper. These are two different things. Some of you equate them, and that is where some people have problems.

Again, the zeal some of you have concerning anyone who challenges anything "beyer" is exactly what you guys accuse Zenyatta fans of doing......

Look, I know you've figured it all out in your two years of following the sport, but bear with some of us amateurs okay?

What is it like to be an expert on everything?

[gm10]

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/09/29/AR2010092903591.html

Excerpt:

When the mare subsequently lost the horse of the year title to Rachel Alexandra, her partisans reacted with white-hot anger. The blogosphere is regularly filled with sharp rebukes for anybody who demeans Zenyatta or even suggests that she is not one of the greatest racehorses of all time.

Compiling an 18-for-18 career record is an extraordinary feat. Horse races contain so many potential pitfalls that no high-class U. S. horse has put together such a streak since Hindoo in 1881. Nevertheless (at the risk of inflaming the blogosphere), I could not put Zenyatta on a list of all-time great racehorses.

Is there a sleep smilie on this MB?

This is old hat. As he suggested in one of his (excellent) books, one of the handicapper's most potent assets is an agile, open mind. He certainly possessed one once, maybe he still does, but he certainly hasn't displayed it since the introduction of synthetic surfaces. Does he really not see that the problem isn't the surface but the way he calculates his figures for the surface?

[andymays]

Is there a sleep smilie on this MB?

This is old hat. As he suggested in one of his (excellent) books, one of the handicapper's most potent assets is an agile, open mind. He certainly possessed one once, maybe he still does, but he certainly hasn't displayed it since the introduction of synthetic surfaces. Does he really not see that the problem isn't the surface but the way he calculates his figures for the surface?

Go get em tiger. :ThmbUp: The thread was getting ready to run out of gas.

[FenceBored]

Is there a sleep smilie on this MB?


Yes. :sleeping:

[Show Me the Wire]

Look, I know you've figured it all out in your two years of following the sport, but bear with some of us amateurs okay?

What is it like to be an expert on everything?

Yes, please tell us Dahoss, what does it feel like?

New perspectives allow us to see the forest from the trees. WT stated the valid criticism succinctly. Do not confuse creating a speed figure system with being a great handicapper or being knowledgeable about every aspect of the industry.