My own par times

[Actor]

Just purchased the charts for the 2010 season at River Downs and thought I'd have a go at figuring my own par times. I think the normal procedure is to figure pars for $10,000 claiming races for males 3up. After eliminating grass and mud races I find that RD did not have any $10,000 claiming races in 2010. The majority of claiming races at RD are for $4000 and $5000. Races for other prices were so few that I don't think any pars would be valid.

I find that for 6 furlongs, $4000 claimers were faster (1:12.85) than $5000 claimers (1:13.00), an unexpected result. What to do? Should I go back and average over both 2009 and 2010, or simply say that $4000 and $5000 claimers are equal at RD?

What do commercial sellers of par times do in these cases?

[Dave Schwartz]

Building good pars begins with good class levels.

No wait... It begins with good pars.

Actually, it is both. The first year that you make pars, you kind of guess at the class levels. I used a very rigid class structure. Very Quirin-like.

Each year the pars get better. About every other year you use the pars to adjust and improve your class levels. After 4-6 years the pars really start to make sense.


To your specific question:

Obviously, the $4k horses are not going to run faster than $5k horses in the long run. However, $4k races might run faster than $5k races some times because the $4k races were actually populated with $6k horses!


One very common anomaly that I have seen for the 20 years that I have been making pars: It is very common for the lowest class at the track to run slightly faster than the one above. The reason for this is best seen as by example.

Imagine that you are a trainer on a circuit where the bottom rung on the ladder is $8k. You have a horse that is really a $12k-$15k horse but you really need a win with him right now. (Yes, this happens.) What do you do?

A) You could enter him where he belongs at $15k and hope for the best.
B) You could enter him at $12k where he'll have an edge and probably win if there aren't any other sharp droppers.
C) You could drop him to $10k where he will most assuredly win (and likely be claimed).
D) You could drop him into the very bottom, cinch the win, and create doubt as to whether or not he is sound. You may avoid the claim altogether.

When a trainer chooses "D" you get a very fast race in the bottom level.


One other strategy for your problem - Let's say that you have 8 races at both $4k and $5k. Throw out the fastest $4k race and the slowest $5k race. Now compare the times again. Continue to do this until the numbers make sense.

Another: Remember that there are situations where the $4k horses might be just as good as the $5ks. This happens when there aren't enough $5k races. Trainers get tired of waiting and just enter their horses for the lower price because the horses (and owners) need the action. The reverse can also be true.

This is much more prevalent at higher class levels like (say) $62,500 and $70,000. If you look at a few of these races you may see that they are really the same horses.


Hope this helps.

regards,
Dave Schwartz

[Robert Goren]

With all do respect to Dave, when I was doing my own SRs I discovered that bottom level claiming races at cheaper tracks very often were run at faster times than the next step up the ladder. I have come up with a bunch of reasons for this, but I can't prove any of them. I would not ignore your finding if you are making a daily variant. Good luck with your endeavor.

[jonnielu]

With all do respect to Dave, when I was doing my own SRs I discovered that bottom level claiming races at cheaper tracks very often were run at faster times than the next step up the ladder. I have come up with a bunch of reasons for this, but I can't prove any of them. I would not ignore your finding if you are making a daily variant. Good luck with your endeavor.

The cheap horse is limited in its ability to running as fast as they can for as far as they can.

jdl

[Dave Schwartz]

With all do respect to Dave, when I was doing my own SRs I discovered that bottom level claiming races at cheaper tracks very often were run at faster times than the next step up the ladder. I have come up with a bunch of reasons for this, but I can't prove any of them. I would not ignore your finding if you are making a daily variant. Good luck with your endeavor.

So, we are in agreement then?

[Irish Boy]

The cheap horse is limited in its ability to running as fast as they can for as far as they can.

jdl
Interestingly, the same is true of expensive horses, graded stakes winners, Arabians, quarterhorses, Shetland ponies, large dogs, mollusks, arthropods, and every other living creature.

[bigmack]

So, we are in agreement then?
:lol:

Kinda looks like it. In a 'with all due respect' kinda way.

[Light]

J
I find that for 6 furlongs, $4000 claimers were faster (1:12.85) than $5000 claimers (1:13.00)

Did you break em down by age, sex, state bred etc? Don't forget class within a class.(5kn1y,5kn2L,5kn2x,etc). For example a horse coming out of a 4K open going into a 5kn2L is actually taking a drop in quality of competition.

[PhantomOnTour]

Did you break em down by age, sex, state bred etc? Don't forget class within a class.(5kn1y,5kn2L,5kn2x,etc). For example a horse coming out of a 4K open going into a 5kn2L is actually taking a drop in quality of competition.
Problem with River Downs is that you won't find but a handful of open non-restricted Clm races...everything will be n2l-n3l-n2y etc....
Found that out when doing pars for Evd. The Clm4000 level breaks down like this:
Clm 4k
Clm 4n2y
Clm 4n1y
Clm 4n3l
Clm 4n2l

As we know the n2l is at the bottom and is way weaker than an n2y.

[Robert Goren]

The bottom claiming races have a lot of horses who are physically unsound. They can still run pretty fast, but are a risk to break down at any time. The next level up has horse which are more sound, but may be a little slower. That is possible reason for time problem. There maybe other reasons as well. All I know is that I found the faster bottom claimer times to happen a lot at low level race tracks. It happened enough to convince me it wasn't just a statistical fluke. Things are not always as neat and clean as we want them to be. My point is if you are trying to get a good daily variant, you should more interested accuracy than trying to make the numbers fit into a theory. There is one other thing you might run across. As the claiming price decreases the difference between f&m races and open races sometimes decreases. The size of the field matters too.

[Robert Goren]

So, we are in agreement then?Most likely.:)

[bigmack]

Most likely.:)
Did you not read his post? You can't tell if you're in agreement with him or not?
Why did you write "With all do (sic) respect"?
:bang:

[jonnielu]

Interestingly, the same is true of expensive horses, graded stakes winners, Arabians, quarterhorses, Shetland ponies, large dogs, mollusks, arthropods, and every other living creature.

Many horseplayers are also quite limited in their understanding of equine ability.

jdl

[Robert Goren]

Did you not read his post? You can't tell if you're in agreement with him or not?
Why did you write "With all do (sic) respect"?
:bang:The only problem I have with Dave's post and it is a small one is the throwing out the fastest 4k and the slowest 5k times til you get a line. I respect Dave's work. I just don't agree with that. I am sure he has done a lot more par times than me and most certainly more recently. I was just reporting what I have found many years ago. Take for it what is worth.

[michiken]

Why use class levels at all?

I was just wondering if anyone has attempted to make pars based on the AVERAGE TIME EARNED per distance at an individual track without regards to class level?

For example the average time for 6f:

22.4 46.0 112.0

Then a race run in 22.3 45.2 111.1 would be

+1 +3 +4

For races run at winter tracks such as Mountaineer, you could keep different averages per quarters of the year (winter, spring, summer and fall) then you would not have a mid January race look like -24 - 22 - 17

You would then have to use a projected speed and pace to create a variant. (You could also use median energy as a projection).

It seems to me that at the lower level tracks it could provide a better gage of the indeterminate class levels as Dave and Robert mention above.

[Dave Schwartz]

The only problem I have with Dave's post and it is a small one is the throwing out the fastest 4k and the slowest 5k times til you get a line. I respect Dave's work. I just don't agree with that. I am sure he has done a lot more par times than me and most certainly more recently. I was just reporting what I have found many years ago. Take for it what is worth.

Can't blame you for disagreeing with this. It is simply a tool to make things make sense on an amateur level with out really working to reconcile the issues on a race-by-race basis.

See, logic dictates that a $4k horse cannot be faster than a $5k horse. This is true and factual.

Where people get confused is in the difference between a $4k race with $8k horses and a $4k race with $4k horses.

The next best thing is to remove the $4k/$8k races from the sample. Guess which ones those probably are? The fastest ones!


Dave