Blind Luck at Parx Saturday

[Manila]

http://www.drf.com/news/blind-luck-face-four-fitz-dixon-cotillion

[cj]

Probably not a very good track at all for her style.

[OTM Al]

Probably not a very good track at all for her style.

Agreed. Havre de Grace at the least should be able to turn the tables given track and distance if Rose doesn't screw up the ride.

[eastie]

Probably not a very good track at all for her style.


what style is that ? winning ?

[OntheRail]

Agreed. Havre de Grace at the least should be able to turn the tables given track and distance if Rose doesn't screw up the ride.
And giving 10lbs to all is not going to help her either... wish her and Jerry the best with his choice.

[OTM Al]

And giving 10lbs to all is not going to help her either... wish her and Jerry the best with his choice.

It doesn't bother me that much as I think she is at least that much better but a mid to deep closing style on a speedy track at 8.5f will cause her problems. Perfect time to do a reverse from the outcome of her last and puch a straight exacta, especially if enough people are thinking like eastie....Should pay relatively well given lack of other competition and small field

[joanied]

I swear, can the fields for stakes races get any smaller? her only concern will be Harve de Grace, but with Rose aboard...I don't see Harve de Grace beating Blind Luck...I cannot bet on any good horse that young man rides...sorry, he just doesn't inspire confidence...so, even giving 10 lbs. ,a dn the track & distance against her...she wins :ThmbUp: (I think the Beldame woulda been a better spot for Blind Luck)

[Jasonm921]

I agree...I think the Beldame would have been the spot for her. Especially now afte the "Retirement".

[Beachbabe]

Probably not a very good track at all for her style.

And is there some built-in bias that Philly Park (Parx Racing) has that would compromise her "style" ?

[cj]

And is there some built-in bias that Philly Park (Parx Racing) has that would compromise her "style" ?

Well, yes, what did you think I meant?

[Robert Fischer]

I swear, can the fields for stakes races get any smaller? her only concern will be Harve de Grace, but with Rose aboard...I don't see Harve de Grace beating Blind Luck...I cannot bet on any good horse that young man rides...sorry, he just doesn't inspire confidence...so, even giving 10 lbs. ,a dn the track & distance against her...she wins :ThmbUp: (I think the Beldame woulda been a better spot for Blind Luck)

I agree with you big time on the size of the field. It's a god damn 750K stake grade2 with 3K for starting the race, 20K for 5th(LAST!):mad: grrrr.....

But completely clueless as to the Jeremy Rose comments?? Is this dating back to the Afleet Alex days?? You sure you're thinking of the right jockey?? He has developed into one of the best around.
Rose is a big game rider these days who is one of the few who can alter the outcomes in his favor. His ride in the Tampa Derby this year was outstanding in which he nearly won the race with a horse far inferior to the horse he singlehandedly took down (supersaver). He's had a bunch of races at the mediocre tracks beating up on dumb jockeys who at times have deserved favs. Good instincts and aggressive.

[WinterTriangle]

Awesome Maria can bring it on dirt how BL can bring on synth, IMHO.
Also kinda like that Mineshaft Bonnie Blue Flag. I think Baffert has this one dead fit but I'll have to look at her running style. She gets Carmouche which is a plus.

I'll play those 2 on top. Haven't handicapped or looked at PPs yet.


Absinthe Minded odds higher than should be; Betfair race might have been too long for her, and in the Monmouth Oaks she got bumped and checked. Should have no problem with this distance, represents good value.


I don't know about Havre de Grace. Seems to just about get by every time and Rose seems to wrestle with her. I'm really so-so on her winning this. Blind Luck at Phila I don't know.....I'll pass on her winning.

Edit: I think I like Bonnie Blue Flag, now that I look at her again. She will surprise everyone

[Beachbabe]

Well, yes, what did you think I meant?


I don't know.
I haven't seen any bias. (at least one that doesn't change day to day or week to week).
So maybe you can expound.

[Dahoss9698]

If Absinthe Minded doesn't run last I'll be shocked. She's beaten a total of zero horses in her two attempts in stakes on dirt. If she was 99-1 it would still be an underlay.

[WinterTriangle]

If Absinthe Minded doesn't run last I'll be shocked. She's beaten a total of zero horses in her two attempts in stakes on dirt. If she was 99-1 it would still be an underlay.

who said she wasn't an underlay? I said she represents good value in exotics.

Saw her at Oaklawn. Started her maiden going 1-1/16 never went short race. Always has trouble. Liked her mdn against remit, and her race against Beautician and Tap Tap Tapping.

[Dahoss9698]

who said she wasn't an underlay? I said she represents good value in exotics.

Saw her at Oaklawn. Started her maiden going 1-1/16 never went short race. Always has trouble. Liked her mdn against remit, and her race against Beautician and Tap Tap Tapping.

Actually you said her odds were higher than they should be. She's 15-1. That would be a major underlay considering she has almost no shot of winning. Then you said she represents good value. Good value? There is no triple wagering and in a 5 horse field how much is the dime super going to pay?

She's terribly overmatched. She's running against the top two 3 year old fillies on dirt around and two others that are much better than she is.

[proximity]

i'd say i'm just a casual observer of pha racing, but on many of the days i watch the inside of the track seems dead to me. in the past season i believe i've been guilty of underestimating a few pha shippers to pen that have shown speed on the inside of pha's track.

btw, is anyone going to this?? i'm thinking of heading over for the afternoon if i can get up in time. :)

[Beachbabe]

i'd say i'm just a casual observer of pha racing, but on many of the days i watch the inside of the track seems dead to me. in the past season i believe i've been guilty of underestimating a few pha shippers to pen that have shown speed on the inside of pha's track.

btw, is anyone going to this?? i'm thinking of heading over for the afternoon if i can get up in time. :)


Most horses lately have been winning from just off the pace from the 3 or 4 wide path

[OTM Al]

what style is that ? winning ?

That would not be the style we were referring too

[Tom]

Close, but no cee-gar!

[bisket]

i wouldn't hold this race against blind luck. nice win for havre de grace who is named after the track that was formally in md. its now an army base, but many of the original buildings are still there. including the clubhouse.

[cj]

Most horses lately have been winning from just off the pace from the 3 or 4 wide path

Went exactly as I expected. Blind Luck is a very, very good horse.

[OTM Al]

Went exactly as I expected. Blind Luck is a very, very good horse.

Second that. My big score for the day when I saw the show pool was being jumped so I put $50 on Havre. Twoooooo fiddy!!!!!!

[Jasonm921]

This is a very nice rivalry that is developing. In an age where quality horses dont face each other, its refreshing to see these two horses have three great races against each other. They remind me of Lure and Star of Cozzene when they had their thing going. It makes the sport very fun to watch and keeps the gamblers happy.

[keithw84]

This is a very nice rivalry that is developing. In an age where quality horses dont face each other, its refreshing to see these two horses have three great races against each other. They remind me of Lure and Star of Cozzene when they had their thing going. It makes the sport very fun to watch and keeps the gamblers happy.

Agree 100%.

I'm glad Hollendorfer is willing to ship and accept the extra weight without complaint in order to fuel some good competition.

[Jasonm921]

True Keith, especially with the 10lb break, which seemed like a lot for a horse that just missed by inches the last two times but I'm not sure how the race was written. Next time they will have even weights with a possiblly different ending.