Dave Schwartz is an excited guy!

[Dave Schwartz]

Why? Because he believes he has finally unraveled the most difficult issue on the handicapping planet: form cycle!

He just had to scream it from the rooftops!


FORM! FORM! FORM!

[cj]

What took you so long?

[Dave Schwartz]

Yeah... guess I am just slow.

[speculus]

Welcome to the elite club of "enlightened" handicappers :cool:

On a serious note, do give a thought to how you can exploit this special knowledge on Betfair by laying against horses that you know just CANNOT win.

[Dave Schwartz]

1. Betfair - is it not illegal from the U.S.?

2. I support race tracks and racing. Playing with Betfair is like playing with a bookie - zero benefit to racing.

[cj]

2. I support race tracks and racing. Playing with Betfair is like playing with a bookie - zero benefit to racing.

I don't believe that is true. I don't know the exact percentage, but Betfair does pay the industry.

[Dave Schwartz]

Really? I did not know that.

Thanks, CJ.

[Robert Fischer]

breakthroughs rock

[bigmack]

I don't believe that is true. I don't know the exact percentage, but Betfair does pay the industry.
I find that hard to believe. Ya got any linkage?

[PhantomOnTour]

So lay it on us Dave!

(better yet-just PM me....shhhhhh)

[speculus]

1. Betfair - is it not illegal from the U.S.?

2. I support race tracks and racing. Playing with Betfair is like playing with a bookie - zero benefit to racing.

Oh yes, I forgot Dave. It's illegal from your country too.

But I think some of your clients must be Betfair punters, so you can always offer "consultancy" to them for a "fee", and then pay taxes in your country on the fee "earned" to put your conscience at ease.

Also, I think cj is right, Betfair does help the cause of racing in many ways.

However, personally I feel the world will be a far better place without bookmakers and also exchanges like Betfair. The ideal world would be where all clubs have superfast and efficient tote machines in place and charge only 5% on WPS bets, and maybe 10% on exotics. :)

[BillW]

Damn, I thought this was going to be another one of those "Bulge in the pants" threads and that I'd have to go a moderatin' :eek:

[Charlie D]

I find that hard to believe. Ya got any linkage?

Try

http://www.thoroughbredtimes.com/national-news/2009/November/02/Betfair-NYRA-reach-wagering-agreement.aspx

[trying2win]

Why? Because he believes he has finally unraveled the most difficult issue on the handicapping planet: form cycle!

He just had to scream it from the rooftops!


FORM! FORM! FORM!

Dave:

Your words of excitement here, reminded me of the old flyers I used to get in the mail way back when from Norris Strauss. :)

[CincyHorseplayer]

Form cycle is the biggest joy of handicapping.And were all right sometimes!!That's where the bread and butter comes from!!

[Dave Schwartz]

Your words of excitement here, reminded me of the old flyers I used to get in the mail way back when from Norris Strauss.

That would certainly be my plan. LOL

[classhandicapper]

I thought I solved it when I realized that every horse and trainer is different and I should just try to stick with horses that appear on the upside instead of the downside or at greater risk of being over the top. But I'd love to hear what you've discovered.

[RaceBookJoe]

I am very interested in what you have to say about form cycle. I have studied it from my early days and it has always been part of my handicapping. I use it as an "angle" or "bonus". Looking forward to comparing what you have found with my stuff. rbj

[ceejay]

Congratulations Dave. So you were able to analytically quantify where you think a horse is on the form cycle?

It must've been a "Eureka" moment for you. I had one of those about a year ago in my professional work. Very emotionally satisfying; financially, too.

[lamboguy]

I don't believe that is true. I don't know the exact percentage, but Betfair does pay the industry.i think you are right, they do pay tracks in other countries than the united states, and they might even pay the united states. if they don't, i would consider paying them a token even if they don't have to, it would make them look pretty legit. but they are nothing more than a bookmaking operation.

[lamboguy]

Why? Because he believes he has finally unraveled the most difficult issue on the handicapping planet: form cycle!

He just had to scream it from the rooftops!


FORM! FORM! FORM!i remember years ago when len firedman, a partner in the ragozin sheet was in my room at a racetrack in mass. i had a horse that was running at arlington park. the horse had been off for a year and i won with him first time back. i double jumped him in class, i asked len what do you think of my horse. he said the horse is going to bounce. the horse went off at 12-1 he won by 6 lengths, he was in the winners circle and was bouncing around. i asked len is that what you mean by bounce?

[Overlay]

...finally unraveled the most difficult issue on the handicapping planet: form cycle!
Dave,

If your unraveling has addressed considerations of wagering value, and of avoiding loss of profitability as the result of overbetting, my hat's off to you!

[markgoldie]

I have looked at form-cycle considerations for years in the hope that such a handicapping angle would produce consistent profits. But frankly, I have never found anything that I could call statistically significant, except in well-known and well-bet circumstances such as second-out lifetime or second and third off of a layoff.

I have learned that when the seasons change, you must be aware of possible radical changes in form both good and bad. I think this has to do with seasonal allergies. And, of course, the old adage that studs tend to race better in warm weather and mares in cooler weather has a generalized merit.

However, the true idea of understanding form cycles (aside from the obvious necessity of parsing the trainer's abilities and tendencies) is in predicting movement in the quality of effort based solely upon the pattern of past quality. And this pattern is informed by the spacing between races.

This is difficult, in part, because of the ongoing dispute of exactly how to measure the quality of a performance itself; and, of course, the many in-race obstacles that prevent getting a "true" picture of the horse's capability (ie. current form). In short, the movement that we think we are seeing in form and quality of performance may just be a circumstance and trip-driven mirage.

All this being said, if you have actually found something of statistical significance, keep it to yourself, Dave. Could be worth its weight in gold.

[Overlay]

All this being said, if you have actually found something of statistical significance, keep it to yourself, Dave. Could be worth its weight in gold.

That's certainly sound logic, but if not intending to market it, or at least to discuss it further, why mention it here in the first place? We can all be happy just because Dave's happy, but without having more information about the cause of his happiness, how can we even give him a meaningful "Attaboy!" from a knowledgeable handicapping standpoint, other than on the basis of his general well-deserved reputation for quality?

[markgoldie]

That's certainly sound logic, but if not intending to market it, or at least to discuss it further, why mention it here in the first place?
Good point. I actually meant market it, because that's what Dave will no doubt do.

[Overlay]

Good point. I actually meant market it, because that's what Dave will no doubt do.

Which harks back to my comment in Post #22.

[Dave Schwartz]

I have looked at form-cycle considerations for years in the hope that such a handicapping angle would produce consistent profits. But frankly, I have never found anything that I could call statistically significant, except in well-known and well-bet circumstances such as second-out lifetime or second and third off of a layoff.

I have two versions - one is very Sheets-like - based upon patterns. I am in the process of making every horse fit into one of several patterns. It has shown me that my numbers for this are better than any others I have ever seen because they are "energy" numbers instead of "speed" numbers.

The second version is a single numerical value that is about 85% as good. The pattern stuff is the best, with the energy number being added to decide ties, etc.

[traveler]

Resurrecting DK-ALL and SLT's in a more modern way?

[Greyfox]

they are "energy" numbers instead of "speed" numbers.

.

Any odds on how long it will be before 46Zil checks in and says,
"Energy distribution?..The penny dropped. You finally saw the light." or words to that effect. ;)

[classhandicapper]

1. Betfair - is it not illegal from the U.S.?

2. I support race tracks and racing. Playing with Betfair is like playing with a bookie - zero benefit to racing.

Dave,

I don't think anyone should feel too bad about playing with a bookmaker, offshore, exchange, or even a legal internet site that pays the tracks less money than they could make if it was all bet with them.

Part of the reason many tracks are so screwed up is that government, incompetents with political patronage jobs, unions, and others that are part of the industry are so slow to adapt to the real world, the tracks eventually become unprofitable.

That kind of thing eventually threatens the union and patronage jobs and even the government's piece of the pie.

That's the only kind of pressure that will force change.

So maybe it's a really bad thing for the industry, owners, horsemen, jockeys etc.. in the short term, but so was the car for the buggy whip business.

It's time for change.

[Trotman]

Greyfox :lol: you should be on TV, best one-liner I read for awhile, you nailed it. :ThmbUp:

[Valuist]

Jimmy likes Elaine.

Gotta love the 3rd person talk.

[raybo]

I have two versions - one is very Sheets-like - based upon patterns. I am in the process of making every horse fit into one of several patterns. It has shown me that my numbers for this are better than any others I have ever seen because they are "energy" numbers instead of "speed" numbers.

The second version is a single numerical value that is about 85% as good. The pattern stuff is the best, with the energy number being added to decide ties, etc.

As someone who has often stated that, IMO, "current form determines everything else", I only have 2 form cycle categories: "form conditioning" cycle, "earning race" cycle.

The way I decide which cycle a horse is in is by "thinking like the trainer". What does the trainer need to do with the horse to improve his form, and, did he accomplish it? I start from the most distant paceline and work forward to the most recent paceline, categorizing each paceline as one or the other form cycle category. By the time I get to his most recent paceline vs what he will be doing today, I have a pretty good idea of where the horse is at in his/her form cycle.

Form cycle analysis comes first, for me, before any handicapping is attempted. Horses in a "form conditioning" cycle are pretty much disregarded for any "money" position. The "earning race" horses are the contenders for all money finishes, win through 4th (superfectas only, remember?)

[Greyfox]

The way I decide which cycle a horse is in is by "thinking like the trainer".)

:ThmbUp: Yes,..and some trainers think better than others....Their win % shows it.

[fmolf]

As someone who has often stated that, IMO, "current form determines everything else", I only have 2 form cycle categories: "form conditioning" cycle, "earning race" cycle.

The way I decide which cycle a horse is in is by "thinking like the trainer". What does the trainer need to do with the horse to improve his form, and, did he accomplish it? I start from the most distant paceline and work forward to the most recent paceline, categorizing each paceline as one or the other form cycle category. By the time I get to his most recent paceline vs what he will be doing today, I have a pretty good idea of where the horse is at in his/her form cycle.

Form cycle analysis comes first, for me, before any handicapping is attempted. Horses in a "form conditioning" cycle are pretty much disregarded for any "money" position. The "earning race" horses are the contenders for all money finishes, win through 4th (superfectas only, remember?)
of course you also check to see the horse is entered at the proper distance, on its preferred surface,with a pace set up favoring its running style,in a race it is capable of winning(entered at the proper class)and then conduct a thorough paddock inspection to determine if your in form horse is feeling well today.Many in form horses have off days...which is why 66% of all favorites lose!

[WinterTriangle]

and then conduct a thorough paddock inspection to determine if your in form horse is feeling well today.Many in form horses have off days...which is why 66% of all favorites lose!

Inexact science but .........Critical. :ThmbUp:

[Dave Schwartz]

What I am talking about comes in a graph. It is a slightly reworked version of what HSH users call Those Sheet-Like Things, a name attached by Dick Schmidt some years ago.

Here is one:




Energy Graph --- 1 HIGH LODE G7
Best=96 2nd Best=95
off 15 days
--------------------------------------------------
7] 1 8/12/10 --------> 86 76
7] 2 7/28/10 ------> 84 74

off 102 days
7] 3 4/17/10 ----> 82 72
7] 4 4/02/10 -----------> 89 79
7] 5 3/15/10 96 86
7] 6 2/27/10 ----------------> 94 84
7] 7 1/31/10 -------> 85 75
7] 8 1/11/10 -----------------> 95 85
6] 9 12/20/09 --------------> 92 82
6]10 12/09/09 --------------------> 98 88

Selected Top: 98 L2=75 L5=77
All Races Top: 98




See how the numbers flow? This is very typical.

The secret, of course, is in how to interpret the numbers.


Here is another graph:



Energy Graph --- 7 ICAN'TREMEMBER G5
Best=96 2nd Best=90
off 28 days
--------------------------------------------------
5] 1 7/30/10 ------------> 83 73
5] 2 7/04/10 --------------> 85 75
5] 3 6/09/10 ---------------> 86 76
5] 4 5/22/10 95 85
5] 5 4/28/10 --------------> 85 75

off 110 days
5] 6 1/08/10 --------------------> 91 81
4] 7 12/13/09 -----------------> 88 78

off 91 days
4] 8 9/13/09 ------------> 83 73

off 197 days
4] 9 2/28/09 -------------------> 90 80
4]10 2/07/09 ------------> 83 73

Selected Top: 91 L2=74 L5=76
All Races Top: 95


The horse above, ICan'tRemember, was the 1-1 favorite. See how he was in a small decline? He ran up the track.


Energy Graph --- 5 ONLY TOP MONEY G3
Best=92 2nd Best=89
off 33 days
--------------------------------------------------
3] 1 7/25/10 85 74
off 31 days
3] 2 6/24/10 ------> 83 72
3] 3 5/28/10 ----------> 87 76
3] 4 4/28/10 ------------> 89 78
3] 5 4/04/10 -------------> 90 79
3] 6 3/11/10 -----------> 88 77
3] 7 2/18/10 -----------> 88 77
off 33 days
3] 8 1/16/10 ------------------> 95 84
off 41 days
2] 9 12/06/09 --------------> 91 80
2]10 11/19/09 76 65

Selected Top: 95 L2=74 L5=76
All Races Top: 95


Only Top Money paid $19.20 and was an obvious contender (to me) in this race.

[traveler]

Resurrecting DK-ALL and SLT's in a more modern way?

That was easy, if I could have figured out how to make money with them.
Good Luck Dave

[Greyfox]

The secret, of course, is in how to interpret the numbers.




Best wishes Dave to becoming a Zillionaire. :)

[Robert Fischer]

As someone who has often stated that, IMO, "current form determines everything else", I only have 2 form cycle categories: "form conditioning" cycle, "earning race" cycle.

The way I decide which cycle a horse is in is by "thinking like the trainer". What does the trainer need to do with the horse to improve his form, and, did he accomplish it? I start from the most distant paceline and work forward to the most recent paceline, categorizing each paceline as one or the other form cycle category. By the time I get to his most recent paceline vs what he will be doing today, I have a pretty good idea of where the horse is at in his/her form cycle.

Form cycle analysis comes first, for me, before any handicapping is attempted. Horses in a "form conditioning" cycle are pretty much disregarded for any "money" position. The "earning race" horses are the contenders for all money finishes, win through 4th (superfectas only, remember?)

Good stuff. Beginning players could learn a lot from you, on a number of different fronts.

[formula_2002]

Why? Because he believes he has finally unraveled the most difficult issue on the handicapping planet: form cycle!

He just had to scream it from the rooftops!


FORM! FORM! FORM!
Dave how does the value compare to not having unraveled the form cycle.?
A typical odds line analysis would be helpful.

[fmolf]

Dave how does the value compare to not having unraveled the form cycle.?
A typical odds line analysis would be helpful.
Patience in regards to value and being able to discern when your selection is a value play is the key to this game.In my humble opinion.Knowing when to play and when to pass is the hardest part of this game.No matter what type of handicapper you are, and what factors or angles you are using,patience and discipline still the most important attributes.

[Dave Schwartz]

Dave how does the value compare to not having unraveled the form cycle.?
A typical odds line analysis would be helpful.

Formula,

Form cycle is a process that is applicable to what I call the "real handicapper's approach." It does not, by itself, result in an odds line.

Therefore, it will probably have no value to you in its current state.

However, many people will be thrilled to have a tool that answers the question, "How will your horse run today?" in the format:

A. Very likely to improve
B. Likely to improve
C. Not likely to improve
D. Likely to decline
E. Very likely to decline

[Exotic1]

Any odds on how long it will be before 46Zil checks in and says,
"Energy distribution?..The penny dropped. You finally saw the light." or words to that effect. ;)

Very funny.

[TrifectaMike]

In my opinion, the characterization of form is erroneous. To say that a
horse that has been racing regulary will have form that
improves/regresses is a tautology.

Remove over-raced, fatiqued, and horses coming off a rest, the
remaining horses are in racing form.

What horse's do posses is the appearance of form, which in reality is a
function of the race dynamics. So, what we have is an appearence of
form, which in fact is an indication of suitability.

I can go on, but I'll stop with this statement;

Each horse brings to a race an "ability" set. If the "ability" set fits into
the dynamics of race, I'd say he/she is in form.

Mike

[formula_2002]

Formula,

Form cycle is a process that is applicable to what I call the "real handicapper's approach." It does not, by itself, result in an odds line.

Therefore, it will probably have no value to you in its current state.

However, many people will be thrilled to have a tool that answers the question, "How will your horse run today?" in the format:

A. Very likely to improve
B. Likely to improve
C. Not likely to improve
D. Likely to decline
E. Very likely to decline

Dave, what I mean is, to what extent does knowing what you know, about form, improve your roi, wrt final odds, compare to betting public.

A "real" handicapper is only interested in the ratio of actual wins compared to expected win.

[Dave Schwartz]

Formula,

I know exactly what you mean. Like me, you look to quantify things with a number. That may someday be possible - this is but the beginning for me in terms of understanding.


In my opinion, the characterization of form is erroneous. To say that a
horse that has been racing regulary will have form that
improves/regresses is a tautology.

Mike,

Like you, I have had a similar feeling in the past. That was because there were just too many unpredictable form reversals.

When you look at the charts and see how smooth the form cycle is for almost all horses and how rarely the approach misses, you will probably rethink your quote above.

Those unpredictable form reversals still happen but they are very rare.

What I have seen as most interesting is the number of "declining horses" at very low odds that can become virtual throw outs. It appears that the negative aspect of form cycle analysis has just huge potential.

Most price horses come off as B's and C's, and a few with total reversals as D's but rarely F's.

[formula_2002]

Good luck Dave.

[Dave Schwartz]

Formula,

Thank you but as you and I both know, "luck" has absolutely nothing to do with it.


Dave

[TrifectaMike]

Formula,

Mike,


When you look at the charts and see how smooth the form cycle is for almost all horses and how rarely the approach misses, you will probably rethink your quote above.

If that is the case, why can't you quantify it?

Instead you have a categorical variable.

Mike

[Dave Schwartz]

Eventually I will but for now I am still defining the categories.

Where I am now is to say that the form cycle graph with some explanation makes the process very simple for the "real handicapper."

(Definition: A "real handicapper" is a guy that does not just use equations to produce a final number.")

By definition, I fall into the category of "unreal" (?) I guess. I use only my numbers and nothing else.

With this, my intention is to use my numbers to determine how good the horse is and the letter grade to determine the likelihood that he will run to how good he is today.

[Light]

Sounds like a rehash of "the Sheets"

[Dave Schwartz]

In many ways it is. However:

A) It comes with a strategy
B) It is a lot less expensive

[thorobasePA]

Do trainers (and those who train the horse day-to-day) themselves recognize these form cycles being described? Do they feel that their horses perform in such a, some would say, simplistic and predictable manner? If any have asked them about this topic, it would be great to hear what they themselves think of this area.

A lot of the time I feel trainers are often, maybe mostly, truly mystified by their charges' performances.

I don't have the mathematics education to correctly define the relavent area, but would this "pattern" approach be something like "graph theory" (or "curve/wave theory"; I'm making these terms up) and therefore could be formalized (in equation form) somewhat? And then you could do a large-scale study across years of data?

Finally, would this "form cycle" be likely to be replicated across other racing disciplines like athletics?

I follow professional cycling quite closely and many times the pros will describe themselves as having "good legs" over a period of days, yet can often have two back-to-back top performance days.

Dave, you are always a good read.

[Dave Schwartz]

Thorobase,

You ask good questions. I will make a note to add these to my list to answer in the product I am working on. (Which I have not begun yet.)

Short answers...

Do trainers (and those who train the horse day-to-day) themselves recognize these form cycles being described? Do they feel that their horses perform in such a, some would say, simplistic and predictable manner? If any have asked them about this topic, it would be great to hear what they themselves think of this area.

Yes, of course. They are, after all, "trainers" and what trainers/coaches in any sport do is prepare their soldiers for battle. Obviously, some are better than others.


A lot of the time I feel trainers are often, maybe mostly, truly mystified by their charges' performances.

Just as a college or professional football coach can be surprised at his team's performance, either good or bad. (Does not mean that they always admit that after the fact.)


I don't have the mathematics education to correctly define the relavent area, but would this "pattern" approach be something like "graph theory" (or "curve/wave theory"; I'm making these terms up) and therefore could be formalized (in equation form) somewhat? And then you could do a large-scale study across years of data?

Possibly. Probably. For now I am working at defining the patterns so that every horse falls into precisely one pattern, even if that pattern ultimately gets referred to as "unknown."

What makes this approach different than the other form approaches out there is that there really is a clear-cut, overall strategy behind it. This strategy makes sense from the moment you understand it.

What I mean by "clear-cut" is that this is not full of smoke and mirrors like many of the approaches to form cycle. You will see - I promise.

(Please forgive me but I am not quite ready to say any more on this topic at this time.)


Finally, would this "form cycle" be likely to be replicated across other racing disciplines like athletics?

I follow professional cycling quite closely and many times the pros will describe themselves as having "good legs" over a period of days, yet can often have two back-to-back top performance days.

If you mean, "Does the form cycle play a part in human athletics as it does in the equine variety?" I'd say the answer is a resounding "yes." In fact, when I explain the basic premise, those of you who train for anything will probably see the similarities.

However, if you mean, "Will the same patterns apply to humans as to horses?" I'd have to say, "I don't know," followed by "I doubt it."

About a year ago a man came into my office with an idea about horse-biorhythms. He said that he had "proven" his work was valid and produced like a 27-race sample. I resisted the urge to laugh at his sample size, but I did suggest that when he had (say) 27 thousand examples I would agree that he had made his point.

But my main question of him was, "How long are the horses' cycles and how did you determine them?"

He said that he used the accepted human cycles because all mammals would be the same. How would he know that?

My point is that, while animals and humans certainly have things in common, and it is logical that they would have a biorhythm, there is no logic that says their cycles would be the same. Why would they be the same? Their gestations are different, as are their "heat" processes.

The point-to-the-point is that horses train differently than humans. As an example, a human athlete trains very often and sometimes very long, while an equine athlete trains just every few days. They may get almost daily exercise at times - even if it is just walking - and there may be therapies that are applied; trainers also use other techniques such as swimming.

Again, the point-to-the-point is that horses train differently than humans because they are different.

So, I am not ready to say that this is in any way "universal."


Dave

[Greyfox]

Dave, my "gut level" hunch is you might be better betting NFL games than horses.
Just a hunch. ;)

[Dave Schwartz]

Foxie,

Explain, please.


Dave

[Greyfox]

Foxie,

Explain, please.


Dave

"Gut level" hunches are by definition pre-verbal and can't be explained.

[Dave Schwartz]

I know what a "hunch" is. I was trying to understand why I'd be better off with football.


Dave

[Greyfox]

I know what a "hunch" is. I was trying to understand why I'd be better off with football.


Dave

The fact is you may well be on to something that may apply to other sports better than horse racing, or at least equally as well.
For example, Jim Furyk winning the Tour Championship today while
Matt Kucher and Charlie Hoffman slid back.
Obviously the track they were on and their present form were influential factors.
You didn't find the beachbabe's Moses joke funny the other day either.
Believe it or not there was some, albeit minimal, humor in it.
IMO you played "thick" there too.
You don't need to do that here as I know that you are a bright guy.
Your responses here indicate that you may not be better off with football.
However, what you are on to may have wider implications.
Football has two teams composed of "individual hosses."
If one knew the right parameters, treating individual athletes with form cycle ideas, who will improve and who won't, one might be able to better predict the production of the collectivity. Then compare the two match ups.
Other than that a hunch is a hunch.

[Fastracehorse]

"Gut level" hunches are by definition pre-verbal and can't be explained.

............is trying to predict a horse that will improve markedly today, enough of an improvement to hit the board, so you can make money.

These are like 'guessing the future type-bets' - most people NEED something tangible, so U can get prices.

An example is the last at Belmont today: yes I DID NOT bet this horse in any shape, way, or, form - but it is an example.

Dutrow gets a horse from the Contessa barn - didn't fire right away but recently worked a bullet over the Monmouth strip.

So, the barn switch angle is always a good one, and the fact the horse worked very sharply for a dangerous outfit.

Now if U based your decision on how this horse ran his last two, U probably wouldn't make him a top 2 contender. It's the sharpness in the work in conjunction with the trainer change that make this horse a candidate for improvement.

Now, I don't know why this horse worked a bullet, 'cause sharp horses don't have to work sharp, maybe experience tells the trainer to work them fast when they have them ready to tip the public off, in this way they keep out of the judges office.

Bullets or presence of works, work, at alot of tracks - Calder comes to mind.

Another angle I bet relentlessly is if a horse shows improvement in early speed - I love this one - then they improve even more next start.

I like front running turf runners going routes who just fail - I used to think that race took too much out of them but they usually come right back a little better - if they don't duel, but at modest prices.

Like I said earlier, blinkers on or off can be a tip off to the punter, and keep them out of the judges office, and they have a function as well.

Arlington had a turf runner circle the field from near last to just hang on at 7-1 today - blinkers off.

A 9:2 wired a field at Wdb yesterday: 3rd start off lay-off, sprint to route, and, blinks on.

Not saying it's that easy but there are alot plays like the above - it's an art.

Many other form plays - form isn't just cycles - it's horse soundness and trainer philosophy too.

fffastt

[Dave Schwartz]

See how easy that was? Now I understand! :ThmbUp:

[bigmack]

Just a quick stab at the topic @ hand.

I can appreciate how handicapping programmers develop their algorithmic material. They are by nature ensconced with numbers. What oftentimes fails in translation is the decipherability of that data in a presentation that can be readily interpreted by the user. It then takes the programmer/seller WAY too long to educate the user how to interpret the data.

Coding has come a long way. Color coding & use of graphs/charts can work wonders for people to quickly visualize a race scenario.

Far too often programmers within this community ask for the user to decipher:

4 5 9 8

8 3 7 1
2 7 5 7

Charts & graphs using real pretty colors can work wonders and can embellish sales that otherwise would be lost.

[Pell Mell]

I wouldn't get too excited because most here have had many a "Eureka!" moment in their life. ;)

[bettheoverlay]

After 4 years of studying a database, I'm amazed anyone can win at this game consistently given all the variables and intangibles. It seems any statistical pattern flattens out over time. But I have always been obsessed with form so I'm very interested in what you have come up with. Will these new figures be part of your software program or do you envision offering them as a stand alone subscription?

[bcgreg]

Dave,

What if you had an algorithm that "predicted" their form cycle before the race and then "learned" from the results.

bcgreg

[Dave Schwartz]

Will these new figures be part of your software program or do you envision offering them as a stand alone subscription?

Actually, both.

[Dave Schwartz]

What if you had an algorithm that "predicted" their form cycle before the race and then "learned" from the results.

I envision that.

Very difficult.

[Sinner369]

Dave:

I hope you succeed........horse racing and handicapping need something "NEW" and "Hot" to use and discuss.

Do you have some kind of timeline when you will make public your findings......??



Sinner

[Dave Schwartz]

This week I am breaking ground on "Phase I," which is a quick release of the approach, including strategy for application. I hope to have it ready before the BC.

Phase II will include a free software product that allows the user to easily customize, view and print the sheets. (The data will come directly from HDW by subscription. Cost to be determined.)

Note that HSH users will be able to extract these reports directly from the current download at no additional cost.

[Fastracehorse]

Just a quick stab at the topic @ hand.

I can appreciate how handicapping programmers develop their algorithmic material. They are by nature ensconced with numbers. What oftentimes fails in translation is the decipherability of that data in a presentation that can be readily interpreted by the user. It then takes the programmer/seller WAY too long to educate the user how to interpret the data.

Coding has come a long way. Color coding & use of graphs/charts can work wonders for people to quickly visualize a race scenario.

Far too often programmers within this community ask for the user to decipher:

4 5 9 8

8 3 7 1
2 7 5 7

Charts & graphs using real pretty colors can work wonders and can embellish sales that otherwise would be lost.

............I use the racing form - I don't care whay anybody uses to make this argument - but isn't the information in the form, much of it numerical, a presentation much like programmers would offer? And that the user has to decipher? Filtering the noise so-to-speak.

That is what programs for horse racing do right? Make it easy for the user?

Not really different from the Sheets or the Form - except that they provide information that U don't have to interpret.

fffastt

[nomadpat]

What I am talking about comes in a graph. It is a slightly reworked version of what HSH users call Those Sheet-Like Things, a name attached by Dick Schmidt some years ago.

Here is one:




Energy Graph --- 1 HIGH LODE G7
Best=96 2nd Best=95
off 15 days
--------------------------------------------------
7] 1 8/12/10 --------> 86 76
7] 2 7/28/10 ------> 84 74

off 102 days
7] 3 4/17/10 ----> 82 72
7] 4 4/02/10 -----------> 89 79
7] 5 3/15/10 96 86
7] 6 2/27/10 ----------------> 94 84
7] 7 1/31/10 -------> 85 75
7] 8 1/11/10 -----------------> 95 85
6] 9 12/20/09 --------------> 92 82
6]10 12/09/09 --------------------> 98 88

Selected Top: 98 L2=75 L5=77
All Races Top: 98




See how the numbers flow? This is very typical.

The secret, of course, is in how to interpret the numbers.


Here is another graph:



Energy Graph --- 7 ICAN'TREMEMBER G5
Best=96 2nd Best=90
off 28 days
--------------------------------------------------
5] 1 7/30/10 ------------> 83 73
5] 2 7/04/10 --------------> 85 75
5] 3 6/09/10 ---------------> 86 76
5] 4 5/22/10 95 85
5] 5 4/28/10 --------------> 85 75

off 110 days
5] 6 1/08/10 --------------------> 91 81
4] 7 12/13/09 -----------------> 88 78

off 91 days
4] 8 9/13/09 ------------> 83 73

off 197 days
4] 9 2/28/09 -------------------> 90 80
4]10 2/07/09 ------------> 83 73

Selected Top: 91 L2=74 L5=76
All Races Top: 95


The horse above, ICan'tRemember, was the 1-1 favorite. See how he was in a small decline? He ran up the track.


Energy Graph --- 5 ONLY TOP MONEY G3
Best=92 2nd Best=89
off 33 days
--------------------------------------------------
3] 1 7/25/10 85 74
off 31 days
3] 2 6/24/10 ------> 83 72
3] 3 5/28/10 ----------> 87 76
3] 4 4/28/10 ------------> 89 78
3] 5 4/04/10 -------------> 90 79
3] 6 3/11/10 -----------> 88 77
3] 7 2/18/10 -----------> 88 77
off 33 days
3] 8 1/16/10 ------------------> 95 84
off 41 days
2] 9 12/06/09 --------------> 91 80
2]10 11/19/09 76 65

Selected Top: 95 L2=74 L5=76
All Races Top: 95


Only Top Money paid $19.20 and was an obvious contender (to me) in this race.


Dave,

I see two numbers after each running line. Is one a speed figure and another energy or are both energy numbers? I can'tremember has a 83 and 73 for the most recent race.

[Dave Schwartz]

Actually, the number to the right is incorrect. I posted a shot of a work-in-progress.

The number to the right is supposed to be the number below the horse's top.

The other number is the energy number.

[raybo]

of course you also check to see the horse is entered at the proper distance, on its preferred surface,with a pace set up favoring its running style,in a race it is capable of winning(entered at the proper class)

Of course, but then, that's part of the "between race" trainer activity, isn't it? Getting a horse in good current form is worthless if the trainer enters him/her in a race that is beyond it's capabilities.

That's pretty much a no-brainer.

I have never done paddock inspections, and, I do alright. I'm an internet player and hardly ever venture to the track, and only then as entertainment, no wagering.

[raybo]

Good stuff. Beginning players could learn a lot from you, on a number of different fronts.

Thanks!

IMO, if the player can reach the point of, from previous pacelines, "reading the story" produced by previous trainer activity (works, rest, race type selection, etc., and the results of those activities), he/she has a huge "leg up" on the vast majority of players. And, in paramutuel wagering, that's pretty much the "whole ball of wax".

[Fastracehorse]

Of course, but then, that's part of the "between race" trainer activity, isn't it? Getting a horse in good current form is worthless if the trainer enters him/her in a race that is beyond it's capabilities.

That's pretty much a no-brainer.

I have never done paddock inspections, and, I do alright. I'm an internet player and hardly ever venture to the track, and only then as entertainment, no wagering.

..........watching them parade and warm-up is a powerful addendum to paper 'capping.

fffastt

[JeremyJet]

I have two versions - one is very Sheets-like - based upon patterns. I am in the process of making every horse fit into one of several patterns. It has shown me that my numbers for this are better than any others I have ever seen because they are "energy" numbers instead of "speed" numbers.

You assume this to be the case, or did you sit down with a years worth of The Sheets, Thoro-Graph, Colt's Neck, etc ... and study the data?

I recall your numbers don't incorperate a daily track variant, Dave. IMHO, any numbers that adjust for track speed will be more predictive than ones that don't. There are no magic shortcuts in this game.

Good luck in your endeavor.

Regards,

JeremyJet

[KingChas]

Eureka.......I mean Holy Moses...... :eek:

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showpost.php?p=918784&postcount=27

[Dave Schwartz]

You assume this to be the case, or did you sit down with a years worth of The Sheets, Thoro-Graph, Colt's Neck, etc ... and study the data?

I recall your numbers don't incorperate a daily track variant, Dave. IMHO, any numbers that adjust for track speed will be more predictive than ones that don't. There are no magic shortcuts in this game.

In producing energy numbers the variant almost does not matter at all.

[Show Me the Wire]

Confused about your statement about energy numbers and that the variant is really not needed. If the track is slow and tiring wouldn't the horse expend more energy than it would expend on a fast non-tiring surface.

Or are we talking about a different definition of energy?

[Dave Schwartz]

Perhaps I exaggerated a little. What I should have said is that minor differences do not matter much.

I am going to leave most of this for explanation in the video I am working on.

What happens is that an extra point or two does not make that much difference because the form cycle is really so obvious in most horses.

Let me make this perfectly clear - it is not the numbers that are great. Numbers are just numbers. It is the interpretation of the numbers; what they mean.

And when I say, "Numbers are just numbers," I mean that. Are The Sheets better than Beyer numbers at predicting winners? Probably. But, as has been established (and I think accepted for a long time) is that the numbers are not enough to be profitable long term.

Listen, we all WANT the numbers to be the main thing. After all, that would make it so easy, wouldn't it? Just scan the column for the big numbers and you know who is going to win.

Except it doesn't work well enough in the long run.

I need to put the focus on the fact that this is the explanation of form cycle that makes sense. It is so clear and precise; so obvious when it is explained this way. (Which way? Well, you'll just have to wait for the video.)

The point about the variant not meaning much: that is because understanding the form cycle means so much more.

Sheet players have the reputation for being some of the biggest bettors. My contention is that the successful ones are more successful not because the numbers are so much better but because their analysis of form is better.

I believe that my form method will completely change the way people look at form.

Just a few more days...

[Show Me the Wire]

Dave:

You may recall I am not big on speed figures. I have stated many times, in the past, on this forum that horses pretty much hold their form from race to race, barring injury or unsoundnes. Decline in form is misinterpreted due to many variables.

Wrong distance, wrong class, subtle bad trip, unexpected poor start, etc, are usually mistaken as a decline, while, in fact, the horse is holding its form, or in your terminology energy.

A good trainer knows how fast his animal can cover a distance of ground and against what class of animal. An in form animal should generally be within 4/5 of a second in its race times at that distance.


For my purposes if the horse is within the 4/5 grouping I treat the race as equivalent to his other like kind races.

Looking forward to your video.

[Dave Schwartz]

SMTW,

I'd say that it is safe to assume that we will be in agreement.


Dave

[Steve 'StatMan']

Know how fast a horsse runs when he runs fast (or have a good estimate), and get a good estimate of how likely the horse will run at or near his faster races today.

[Dave Schwartz]

Steve,

Add "Does the horse fit the pace of today's race?" and you have summed up what you need to pick winners: Form-Speed-Pace.

Add a value assessment and you have what you need to make money.


Dave

[JeremyJet]

What I am talking about comes in a graph. It is a slightly reworked version of what HSH users call Those Sheet-Like Things, a name attached by Dick Schmidt some years ago.

Here is one:




Energy Graph --- 1 HIGH LODE G7
Best=96 2nd Best=95
off 15 days
--------------------------------------------------
7] 1 8/12/10 --------> 86 76
7] 2 7/28/10 ------> 84 74

off 102 days
7] 3 4/17/10 ----> 82 72
7] 4 4/02/10 -----------> 89 79
7] 5 3/15/10 96 86
7] 6 2/27/10 ----------------> 94 84
7] 7 1/31/10 -------> 85 75
7] 8 1/11/10 -----------------> 95 85
6] 9 12/20/09 --------------> 92 82
6]10 12/09/09 --------------------> 98 88

Selected Top: 98 L2=75 L5=77
All Races Top: 98




See how the numbers flow? This is very typical.

The secret, of course, is in how to interpret the numbers.


Here is another graph:



Energy Graph --- 7 ICAN'TREMEMBER G5
Best=96 2nd Best=90
off 28 days
--------------------------------------------------
5] 1 7/30/10 ------------> 83 73
5] 2 7/04/10 --------------> 85 75
5] 3 6/09/10 ---------------> 86 76
5] 4 5/22/10 95 85
5] 5 4/28/10 --------------> 85 75

off 110 days
5] 6 1/08/10 --------------------> 91 81
4] 7 12/13/09 -----------------> 88 78

off 91 days
4] 8 9/13/09 ------------> 83 73

off 197 days
4] 9 2/28/09 -------------------> 90 80
4]10 2/07/09 ------------> 83 73

Selected Top: 91 L2=74 L5=76
All Races Top: 95


The horse above, ICan'tRemember, was the 1-1 favorite. See how he was in a small decline? He ran up the track.


Energy Graph --- 5 ONLY TOP MONEY G3
Best=92 2nd Best=89
off 33 days
--------------------------------------------------
3] 1 7/25/10 85 74
off 31 days
3] 2 6/24/10 ------> 83 72
3] 3 5/28/10 ----------> 87 76
3] 4 4/28/10 ------------> 89 78
3] 5 4/04/10 -------------> 90 79
3] 6 3/11/10 -----------> 88 77
3] 7 2/18/10 -----------> 88 77
off 33 days
3] 8 1/16/10 ------------------> 95 84
off 41 days
2] 9 12/06/09 --------------> 91 80
2]10 11/19/09 76 65

Selected Top: 95 L2=74 L5=76
All Races Top: 95


Only Top Money paid $19.20 and was an obvious contender (to me) in this race.

What's the difference between the bottom two horses you posted? They were both on the decline based on your numbers. Why was ONLY TOP MONEY on a favorable pattern and ICAN'TREMEMBER on a negative pattern?

Regards,

JeremyJet

[Dave Schwartz]

That is one of the first things we cover in the video.

[JeremyJet]

That is one of the first things we cover in the video.

Why can't you just give me the explanation right now?

[thaskalos]

What's the difference between the bottom two horses you posted? They were both on the decline based on your numbers. Why was ONLY TOP MONEY on a favorable pattern and ICAN'TREMEMBER on a negative pattern?

Regards,

JeremyJetMy guess would be that ONLY TOP MONEY was a candidate for improvement, because the horse returned from a 31 day layoff and ran an improved effort over the race immediately preceding the layoff.

[JeremyJet]

My guess would be that ONLY TOP MONEY was a candidate for improvement, because the horse returned from a 31 day layoff and ran an improved effort over the race immediately preceding the layoff.

Well, I guess all we can do is guess. For some reason my request for an explanation was asking too much. We have to wait for the video. :confused:

Regards,

JeremyJet

[Dave Schwartz]

Jeremy,

This will be a good product when it is released. The primary purpose of the product (which is still unnamed) is to teach people why one horse's form is better than another's, which is the question you asked.

I am sorry that you are put out by this. Hopefully, between now and release you will be able to see my point of view and want to see the product firsthand.


Regards,
Dave Schwartz

[Show Me the Wire]

Looking at the graph, I expect Dave to opine Ican'tremember has been declining steadily since its big effort and 28 days is not a long enough freshening based on the horses past, while Only Top Money's races are all pretty much the same, except for the most recent before the 30+ day freshening. It seems Only Top Money threw a typical tired horse race and his connections reacted quickly in giving the horse time off to regain its energy.

[Cratos]

Why? Because he believes he has finally unraveled the most difficult issue on the handicapping planet: form cycle!

He just had to scream it from the rooftops!


FORM! FORM! FORM!
Dave,

I might have missed it in this thread, but I didn’t see a definition of “form cycle” for a horse although you appear to give some measurements of “form cycle” and if that is so, what is the reliability and validity parameters of those measurements.

Additionally, will you explain your application of speed and energy in the context of the horses’ “form cycle” because they come from the opposite ends of the horses’ performance?

[Dave Schwartz]

You are a very smart guy. You just described my next 3 products.

[TrifectaMike]

Formula,

Form cycle is a process that is applicable to what I call the "real handicapper's approach." It does not, by itself, result in an odds line.

Therefore, it will probably have no value to you in its current state.

However, many people will be thrilled to have a tool that answers the question, "How will your horse run today?" in the format:

A. Very likely to improve
B. Likely to improve
C. Not likely to improve
D. Likely to decline
E. Very likely to decline


I know, I'll be criticized as being a novice, and I don't understand
horses and horseracing. It's ok. I'm a big boy. I might learn
something.

1. I don't know how to use general, highly subjective categorical
form cycle factor in any systematic, mathematically sound framework.

2. It's a subjective probability of sort (I guess one could assign
probabilities). That leads to another question. Since it is a subjective
probability, how would I combine it with another subjective probability?

3. Then there is the question of collinearity or correlation. This can
get complicated, so I won't address it.

My concerns may not seem fair or relevant, but they are relevant.
Possibly by example, I can get a better understanding.

Let's assume that I've done my homework (tested for correlation and
significance), and I use multiple regression to predict a speed rating.

For explanatory variables I use the horse's speed history.
In this framework, how would I utilize a form cycle graph, or form cycle
categorical variable as described?

Mike

[Dave Schwartz]

Once you know the patterns and the definitions for those patterns, you could then study them and adjust your output accordingly.

Any factor that is used must, of course, have a clear-cut definition.

[TrifectaMike]

Once you know the patterns and the definitions for those patterns, you could then study them and adjust your output accordingly.

Any factor that is used must, of course, have a clear-cut definition.

Gotta love you. Great answer. I don't know what it means, but still great!

Mike

[Dave Schwartz]

It means that every horse falls into a single category like:

Top + Layoff
Layoff + Top
Improved 1
Improved 2
Improved 3
Declined 1
etc.


With a set of rules for each category you could produce a numerical value - an IV, etc.

[andicap]

Dave,
Are you implying that by employing your interpretation of form cycles, a handicapper could profitably use any decent figure? Not that I want to denigrate your energy figures, but you seem to be saying that 80% (or whatever percentage) of the benefit of your product is in reading the figures rather than the numbers themselves.

[Dave Schwartz]

Andy,

That would be correct. Numbers are numbers...

It is the method that counts.


Dave

[wes]

When you can get ants to out run the horses, you are on the top of your game.


wes

[RXB]

Hey Wes, I bet a horse that ran like an ant yesterday at WO. It looked about the size of an ant, too, on my video feed because it was so far behind in the stretch.

The worst of it is, in retrospect, it kind of figured to run like an ant. One for the "What-was-I-thinking?" file.

I trust that Dave's cyber ants are better than my living ants.

[Dave Schwartz]

Hey, do you think that a 6-legged horse that was strong enough to lift about 8 times its own weight and had bone-crushing strength in its mandibles er-uh, I mean teeth could win a few races?

I don't know but I'd be real careful feeding him.


Dave

[RXB]

You think lifting eight times its weight is impressive, just imagine if one of the supertrainers got care of it.

[traveler]

How's the video coming Dave?

[Dave Schwartz]

Actually, I decided to write the software first. It will be finished tomorrow then the video by Sunday (I hope).


Dave

PS: The software is free.

[mountainman]

It seems Only Top Money threw a typical tired horse race and his connections reacted quickly in giving the horse time off to regain its energy.

And what if the "tired" horse is in reality a "sore" horse whose connections had no choice but to rest? Infirmity is the "x" factor in fluctuating form cycles that few handicappers acknowledge and fewer still attempt to incorporate. On a related tangent, you wouldn't BELIEVE how many horses recently removed from the vet's list take tons of play and run up the track. It's a major source of frustration for me that, as a tv analyst, I can't always divulge things I'm aware of as a racing official. I throw out hints when appropriate, but total disclosure is a line I can't cross. It's my belief that the impact of a horse's physical problems on performance (and, by extension, its form cycle) CAN be estimated. Not through numbers-patterns, but instead through contextual factors and other info gleaned from the animal's history. But I won't get into that here. This is Dave's thread, and, from all appearances, he's done some fine research.

[Dave Schwartz]

Mountainman,

And what if the "tired" horse is in reality a "sore" horse whose connections had no choice but to rest? Infirmity is the "x" factor in fluctuating form cycles that few handicappers acknowledge and fewer still attempt to incorporate.

There is actually a place for this in the strategy. I am not saying that one can clearly tell the difference between "tired" and "sore" but there is a pattern that flags "something might be wrong."

[mountainman]

Mountainman,



There is actually a place for this in the strategy. I am not saying that one can clearly tell the difference between "tired" and "sore" but there is a pattern that flags "something might be wrong."

kudos. my perspective on form-cycles IS a little offbeat, but developed from hard experience, some of it behind the scenes. and good luck with the video pal.

[Edward DeVere]

On a related tangent, you wouldn't BELIEVE how many horses recently removed from the vet's list take tons of play and run up the track. It's a major source of frustration for me that, as a tv analyst, I can't always divulge things I'm aware of as a racing official. I throw out hints when appropriate, but total disclosure is a line I can't cross.

I don't understand. Are you saying that you can't refer to specific horses coming off the vet's list? If so, why not?

Or are you referring to something else?

[mountainman]

I don't understand. Are you saying that you can't refer to specific horses coming off the vet's list? If so, why not?

Or are you referring to something else?

That's exactly what I'm saying. I'm already unpopular with plenty of horsemen because of my blunt commentary. That's cool. My job isn't to be their best buddy and booster, but to deliver candid analysis. But if I started to spill things about their stock that i'm only aware of because of my morning job, they would lynch me. Literally. There is a confidence between horsemen and officials that I won't violate. And I doubt the superiors I respect and answer to at Mnr would approve of me crossing that line. The boundaries don't solely exclude me giving info about mnr's vet's or steward's list. I also can't divulge anything concerning claims I might be aware of, or dish that a horse, for instance, was entered at the office's behest to fill a race. I could list other no no's, but you get the idea.

[Tom]

Is the vet's list published at tracks, or is it kept secret from the customers?

[mountainman]

Is the vet's list published at tracks, or is it kept secret from the customers?

I've seen tracks that make it available. Most, however, do not. Technically, since state vet is a govn appointed position, the list is probably part of the public domain. But outing it on air is WAY above my pay grade and authority. And it just isn't done. I'd get crucified.

[Tom]

That's what I thought.
That seems like something horse players might want to go after - full disclosure, seeing how WE pay the goofball's salary.

to tell you the truth, I would much rather see efforts go after issues like this than take outs. I can get around takeouts by shopping for good good odds, but I can't do much about sicko-s running sore and lame horses without being there at the track.

[Dave Schwartz]

I finished the software last night. Now it is on to the video product!

[dastar]

Having not posted in a while, I must chime in.

The most consistent form of a horse is his or her being inconsistent. (I certainly didn't coin that phrase).

Also, with all due respect to ANY figures, it only shows a static number that you are trying to make dynamic!

But, in the event you have 'Magic Numbers' that does not necessarily mean the trainer is going to be trying to win. Not to mention jockeys have been known to make poor judgment with a good horse.

If someone EVER comes up with a method that points out whether or not a trainer is sending a horse with intentions of running well, in my humble opinion they would have hit the 'Pot Of Gold.'

Good luck finding that!

[raybo]

Having not posted in a while, I must chime in.

The most consistent form of a horse is his or her being inconsistent. (I certainly didn't coin that phrase).

Also, with all due respect to ANY figures, it only shows a static number that you are trying to make dynamic!

But, in the event you have 'Magic Numbers' that does not necessarily mean the trainer is going to be trying to win. Not to mention jockeys have been known to make poor judgment with a good horse.

If someone EVER comes up with a method that points out whether or not a trainer is sending a horse with intentions of running well, in my humble opinion they would have hit the 'Pot Of Gold.'

Good luck finding that!

Someone else coined the phrase "think like a trainer", but, some of us have been doing that for decades. If you've been around this game long enough and have been doing your "due diligence", you'll have learned how to figure out when the trainer is trying to earn his keep, by bringing home some money for the owner.

When a jockey screws up, it's just another loss, not the end of the world. That's why you stay within your means, because you know you can't hit 'em all.

But then, all you have to do is hit enough, at the right prices, to get your share.

How much do you figure the "Pot Of Gold" amounts to? If you're realistic in your estimate, some of us have already hit it.

[Dave Schwartz]

Product Announcement:

Improve or Decline: Unraveling the Mystery of Form

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?p=985027#post985027

[Learned Hand35]

That's what I thought.
That seems like something horse players might want to go after - full disclosure, seeing how WE pay the goofball's salary.


The whole veterinarian's list thing made me curious, so I did a little research. The veterinarian is employed by the state through the commission, as Mountainman stated. The veterinarian's list is referenced in the WV Racing Commission Regs.

I don't know what the case law says, but I looked up WV's FOIA statute, and it is shockingly pretty broadly written. It doesn't limit WV FOIA requests to residents of the state. I think a curious horseplayer WVirginian or no, could FOIA that document. Perhaps, FOIA it enough that they might be forced to start posting it instead of having to respond to each request.

I'm not just picking on WV, as this could be an idea for any other jurisdictions with similar set ups.

[Pell Mell]

Someone else coined the phrase "think like a trainer", but, some of us have been doing that for decades. If you've been around this game long enough and have been doing your "due diligence", you'll have learned how to figure out when the trainer is trying to earn his keep, by bringing home some money for the owner.

When a jockey screws up, it's just another loss, not the end of the world. That's why you stay within your means, because you know you can't hit 'em all.

But then, all you have to do is hit enough, at the right prices, to get your share.

How much do you figure the "Pot Of Gold" amounts to? If you're realistic in your estimate, some of us have already hit it.

:ThmbUp: :ThmbUp: :ThmbUp:

[banacek]

Product Announcement:

Improve or Decline: Unraveling the Mystery of Form

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?p=985027#post985027

Dave,

I seem to be missing something here. How do we get the free software? It isn't mentioned in the video announcement..at least I can't see anything about it. Does the video include the software?

Thanks

[Dave Schwartz]

The software will be released by the end of first week of November. It will be free and downloadable.

The software demands a subscription.

[Tom]

But, the software is not needed if you choose to make the figs by hand from existing speed figs?

[Dave Schwartz]

Tom, that is correct. You could make the figs from the DRF, from Beyer numbers, from any true speed rating.

After I get this seminar finished (it is about 50% right now) I will find some time to discuss the software here. I am hoping to get a chance for at least one live play sessions before release date. I will not be showing the new software but rather handing out the picks so that the effectiveness can be seen.

This stuff has absolutely changed the way I play forever.

Dave

[raybo]

Steve,

Add "Does the horse fit the pace of today's race?" and you have summed up what you need to pick winners: Form-Speed-Pace.

Add a value assessment and you have what you need to make money.


Dave

i've been preaching this for years, much of it on this forum. However, the order, I have found, is form, pace, speed. A thorough analysis of form is essential before any of the "numbers" hold any value.

Most losing players are so entrenched in their, faulty, beliefs that they fail to see, or admit, that they need to change their beliefs, and ultimately, their methods.

[Overlay]

i've been preaching this for years, much of it on this forum. However, the order, I have found, is form, pace, speed. A thorough analysis of form is essential before any of the "numbers" hold any value.

I agree that form, pace, and speed all have their place in any analysis of a field. But it would seem to me that, as long as you were not employing an elimination-based selection methodology, but instead assigning appropriate relative weights to the factors that you were using, and evaluating all the horses in the race on every factor, then the factors could be applied equally effectively in any order.

[Dave Schwartz]

I agree that form, pace, and speed all have their place in any analysis of a field. But it would seem to me that, as long as you were not employing an elimination-based selection methodology, but instead assigning appropriate relative weights to the factors that you were using, and evaluating all the horses in the race on every factor, then the factors could be applied equally effectively in any order.

Overlay,

I used to say the same thing. Not any more.

It has become obvious to me that the interdependence of the factors makes a difference which cannot be readily achieved with individual factors. I am not saying that my way is the only way but it is a process that results in showing which horses are simply not capable of winning a given race.


Dave

[raybo]

Overlay,

I used to say the same thing. Not any more.

It has become obvious to me that the interdependence of the factors makes a difference which cannot be readily achieved with individual factors. I am not saying that my way is the only way but it is a process that results in showing which horses are simply not capable of winning a given race.


Dave

I agree, pace, for instance, is not nearly as easily quantifiable, as regards weighting, as it would appear to those not having the experience of many years of "subjective" analysis of pace, probable pace, individual running styles, etc., etc.. Form analysis allows the player to make an informed decision on form, thus, pointing him towards a horse's true current pace potential. From the determination of pace potential he can then better determine current speed potential, under the probable pace scenario he faces today.

There's much more involved than just pace and speed times or figures as they relate to current form. Most of that is more highly "subjective" than those 2 factors. Very hard to place weighting on "subjective" factors and reasoning regarding those factors.

Some may be able to do it, but, the average (or even above average) player would probably not be able to achieve much improvement in their game trying to weight such things. There are just too many variables, it would take someone, like you 2, to arrive at a successful level using just weighting alone.

I am not trying to say that my order of importance is "the" correct order (form, pace, speed) but from my experience it holds true.

Elimination methodology is one of the easiest things a handicapper can do, as there are horses that obviously will not compete in today's race. But, form still must be analyzed, for all entries, before eliminations can take place, IMO. Otherwise, it would be easy to throw away some very good payoffs.

[Cratos]

Overlay,

I used to say the same thing. Not any more.

It has become obvious to me that the interdependence of the factors makes a difference which cannot be readily achieved with individual factors. I am not saying that my way is the only way but it is a process that results in showing which horses are simply not capable of winning a given race.


Dave

Dave will you be adding a graph to your software with "form" on the Y-axis and "time" on the X-axis?

To me this is important because “form” is cyclical with respect to time and there will be times when Horse A being the better horse will be on the downward slope of its form cycle curve and Horse B although subordinate to Horse A in terms of performance, but being in the same race and whose form cycle is upward sloping on its form curve at the point it is higher than Horse A and is the better horse at that time in that race.

A graph can clearly depict this phenomenon

[Dave Schwartz]

No. You really don't need it and you will agree once you have seen this video.

Do yourself a favor - order it. If you don't agree with it, you can always send it back.


Dave

[Dave Schwartz]

Okay, rethinking this... If you really want such a feature on the charts, I can build it but try it without first.

Seriously, I will be astounded... - considering the caliber of player that you have proven to be on this forum - ...I will be astounded if you do not see what a true breakthrough in form cycle analysis this is.


Dave

[raybo]

Dave,

I scanned all the posts so far but have not seen anything regarding "hard numbers", how much testing you've done on this form cycle theory of yours. Do you have summary numbers derived from database testing, ROI, hit rate, etc., etc.?

Or did the method just "hit you" and is solidly grounded, so you are proceeding with implementing the method first, and then doing testing later?

[Dave Schwartz]

Raybo,

The "solid numbers" are not really the target for me, although right now, as I approach 1,000 races, they border on "unbelievable" even for me.

Understand that what this methodology does is narrow down who will win today's race. The target is to get 90% of the winners into your top 4 contenders.

Much of the time this is attainable but in some races it is not possible as there are as many as 6 or 7 horses that have a chance to get a piece of that 90% pie.

Other times there are 4 but they are the top 4 public choices. Most of these races are not playable even though the goal is met.

Although the primary thrust of this seminar is "form cycle analysis," this is a "complete" strategy. That is, it integrates form with speed to determine who is a "first tier" contender, who is a "second tier" contender and who is really so unlikely to win the race under any conditions. Those "so unlikely horses" still win occasionally. They represent the 6-8% of winners that appear to be totally ungettable.

There is even a value-based section that many people will appreciate because there is absolutely no line making or line use whatsoever. It is very unique.

You guys need to trust me - this is really breakthrough stuff.

Think of it this way... Have you ever heard of me offering a money-back guarantee before?



Dave

[Tom]

Think of it this way... Have you ever heard of me offering a money-back guarantee before?

Hmmmmm, expect a phone call! :D

[Dave Schwartz]

Seems I missed these questions from Cratos awhile back.


I might have missed it in this thread, but I didn’t see a definition of “form cycle” for a horse although you appear to give some measurements of “form cycle” and if that is so, what is the reliability and validity parameters of those measurements.

There is a distinct definition of when a "form cycle" begins and ends. It is part of the seminar and it is different than any definition I have ever heard of before. When people hear it for the first time they will not be surprised and the entire concept is very logical.


Additionally, will you explain your application of speed and energy in the context of the horses’ “form cycle” because they come from the opposite ends of the horses’ performance?

I am not sure I understand this question, although it sounds like something that would be covered in the seminar. If this means, "What is energy?" or "How do you compute energy?" it is in the seminar.

[Dave Schwartz]

Seems I missed this from Trifecta Mike as well.



I know, I'll be criticized as being a novice, and I don't understand
horses and horseracing. It's ok. I'm a big boy. I might learn
something.

1. I don't know how to use general, highly subjective categorical
form cycle factor in any systematic, mathematically sound framework.


This is not a mathematical factor kind of thing, although you could make it so. This is discussed a little in the seminar.


2. It's a subjective probability of sort (I guess one could assign
probabilities). That leads to another question. Since it is a subjective
probability, how would I combine it with another subjective probability?

There is nothing subjective about anything I create. Everything I do comes with rules.



3. Then there is the question of collinearity or correlation. This can
get complicated, so I won't address it.

My concerns may not seem fair or relevant, but they are relevant.
Possibly by example, I can get a better understanding.

Let's assume that I've done my homework (tested for correlation and
significance), and I use multiple regression to predict a speed rating.

For explanatory variables I use the horse's speed history.
In this framework, how would I utilize a form cycle graph, or form cycle
categorical variable as described?


Ironically, (considering my answers in this post thus far) there is some very distinct statistical regression applied in this process, but it is not what you would expect. It will likely put you on a regression path you never thought of before. (Or maybe you have...)

In order to hear these answers... well, that is why you watch the seminar.


Dave

PS: If there are any other questions I have missed, please ask again.

[raybo]

Dave,

When you speak of integrating "form with speed" to categorize contenders as "tier 1", "tier 2", etc., does "speed" mean overall speed, as in a speed figure? Or, is pace also integrated?

If the former, are you of the mind that speed, no matter how it is attained, is valid for your purposes?

If the latter, are you doing the same thing with a performance figure, incorporating both pace and speed?

Or ----- are you doing both?

[Dave Schwartz]

When you speak of integrating "form with speed" to categorize contenders as "tier 1", "tier 2", etc., does "speed" mean overall speed, as in a speed figure?

Speed as in "speed ratings." This is not about pace. Pace comes later.

[TrifectaMike]

Dave, thank you for the response.

I know you're busy at the moment as well as excited. Your form cycle analysis has me thinking about your Monty Hall Project.

Have you given any thought of "marrying" the two; Monty Hall and Form Cycle. To me it seems like a natural "marriage".

For those that are unfamiliar or don't understand the Monty Hall problem, let me give a very simple explanation, which I believe anyone can follow.

Here's how it works. As a contestant you are asked to select one of three doors. A prize is behind one door. The placement of the prize is known to the host. The host always opens a door, which doesn't expose the prize. After showing you a door without a prize behind it, the host asks if you would like to switch your selection.

The contestant's first instinct is to reasonably believe that it doesn't matter, if he switches or not, because there are two doors and one contains the prize. This type of reasoning is incorrect since it actually is better that you switch doors.

Here's why (There are elegant proofs, but this this is a very simple explanation)

Assume you select door 1.

If the prize is behind door 3, the host opens door 2, so if you switch you win.

If the prize is behind door 2, the host opens door 3, so if you switch you win.

If the prize is behind door 1, no matter which door the host opens, if you swtch you lose.

So, by always switching you have a 2/3 chance of winning and a 1/3 chance of losing.

You can apply the same reasoning if select door 1 or 2.

Dave, the problem is even more interesting with the doors having unequal probabilities. As I said, I think your form cycle analysis can act as your Monty Hall engine.

Mike

[Dave Schwartz]

Mike,

Have you given any thought of "marrying" the two; Monty Hall and Form Cycle. To me it seems like a natural "marriage".

Absolutely!

A simple variation on MH:

Imagine that your make your pick(s) then check them against the form product which has a reasonable expectation of 88% or more in the top 4.

If you only played (say) horses from 5/1 up that you picked AND qualified, I'd expect a solid profit.


Dave

[fmolf]

Mike,



Absolutely!

A simple variation on MH:

Imagine that your make your pick(s) then check them against the form product which has a reasonable expectation of 88% or more in the top 4.

If you only played (say) horses from 5/1 up that you picked AND qualified, I'd expect a solid profit.


DaveDave are you trying to find out at what odds the highest figure horse is profitable?

[Dave Schwartz]

No, not even close.

[fmolf]

So i would make my choice....on pace,class,distance..etc..etc..then check my selection against your energy #'s to see if my horse is improving in his form or declining?..Isn't this idealogy similar to the "sheets guys"

[Dave Schwartz]

Again, not even close.

This is a complete approach. It assigns letter grades to each horse (A, B, C, D) then tells you what to do with them.

You really need to just dive in and get the seminar video. It is not like anything you have ever seen.

Dave

[Enigma]

Hey Dave,
I've followed this thread from day one and if your approach lives up to your sales hype (RPM eat your heart out) then day jobs will become obsolete.

[banacek]

Hey Dave,
I've followed this thread from day one and if your approach lives up to your sales hype (RPM eat your heart out) then day jobs will become obsolete.

Well, I have bought a few things from Dave and found his products to be of excellent quality. Having said that, I have to say that I was taken a bit aback from the sales pitch this time - which has caused me to pass on buying the video.("I've unravelled the most difficult problem on the handicapping planet" "the software is free!" then later .."a subscription will be required") It felt like I was reading one of the old-time sales pitches I used to get in the mail. But, I imagine it's good quality, certainly better than RPM! I'll just have to pass this time.

[Dave Schwartz]

Banacek,

Best thing to do is to wait for the reviews.

[wonatthewire1]

Banacek,

Best thing to do is to wait for the reviews.


Dave,

Looking forward to seeing the video, will give you a call tomorrow to order a copy

[Dave Schwartz]

If you call between 8am and 10am (pacific) we can still get you in the first shipment.

[wonatthewire1]

If you call between 8am and 10am (pacific) we can still get you in the first shipment.

will do...prob around 8 your time

[Steve 'StatMan']

I just placed my order Dave - I'm looking forward to it!

[Dave Schwartz]

Just spoke with the duplicators. They have our files and have now told me that we will have them Monday afternoon. So, Monday evening will be a busy night.

He also said that I can adjust the count as late as Thursday, 3pm (Eastern). So, all the orders that have been placed thus far are sure to get filled. In addition, we have ordered enough extra to cover new orders that may come in.

Thanks to everyone who has ordered. We are completely overwhelmed by the response. You will not be disappointed.


Regards,
Dave Schwartz

[Dave Schwartz]

I misspoke. We have probably ordered enough excess to cover new orders after Thursday.


Dave

[Tom]

I'm in.....and to show my faith in Dave, I already ordered the new car. :cool:

[offtrack]

Tom,

Just wondering....make, model, and color?

:)

[Dave Schwartz]

Tom,

Okay, you come and get me and we'll had back to Saratoga. I'm buying the chowder.


Dave

[lsosa54]

I'm in.....and to show my faith in Dave, I already ordered the new car. :cool:

And I've got a freshman in college I have to take care of. I'm counting on you, Dave!

[Richard]

Glad I could order at the pre-pub price,Dave.Looking real forward to this video.

[plainolebill]

I'm looking forward to getting my copy too. Thanks for the pre-release deal.

[Dave Schwartz]

Okay, you come and get me and we'll had back to Saratoga. I'm buying the chowder.

That's "HEAD" to Saratoga.

Okay, you come and get me and we'll head back to Saratoga.


You guys are raising the bar pretty high on me. Is there anything else you'd like me to be responsible for? Lawn mowing? Car washing? Morning coffee?

LOL - Seriously, when I finished the part about using the Beyer numbers and saw how easy it really was to use, I realized how much you guys are going to enjoy this.


Dave

[Robert Fischer]

this looks good Dave

"competitively unique activities are the essence of strategy"

:ThmbUp::ThmbUp:

[Cratos]

I am not sure I understand this question, although it sounds like something that would be covered in the seminar. If this means, "What is energy?" or "How do you compute energy?" it is in the seminar.


Dave, I know how to compute a horse's energy and that wasn’t my concern. What is of concern to me is how are you relating the horse’s energy to its speed in the form cycle. I agree that there is a definite relationship, but thus far it hasn’t be explained.

[Dave Schwartz]

Dave, I know how to compute a horse's energy and that wasn’t my concern. What is of concern to me is how are you relating the horse’s energy to its speed in the form cycle. I agree that there is a definite relationship, but thus far it hasn’t be explained.

Actually, I doubt that you do it the same way I do.

As for the other question, the relationship "between" them has no meaning for me. I do not relate energy to speed. Energy is the metric we use to express how good or poor a performance was.

I think you are looking for a depth here that is unnecessary in the application of form cycle.

Of course, you may well see it differently. The issue is what works. I suggest that what I have demonstrated significantly clarifies the picture and is quite logical as well.


Those of you who come looking for a complex mathematical formula derived from hours of pouring over physics text books will be disappointed.

Those of you who come looking for a practical way to tell which horses are likely to run today and which are likely to run in relation to the field should be impressed.


And guess what? It picks a lot of favorites! What would anyone expect? A lot of "favorites" win races. But it also picks longshots.

There are two big advantages to this system:
1. It will tell you that some low-priced horses can be bet against with great expectation. I have seen horses as low as 2/5 as virtual throw outs.

2. It will tell you that some high-priced horses can be bet with great confidence.


What it does is give you a picture of the race showing your final contenders along with who among your non-contenders you need to be afraid of.


Dave

[Cratos]

Actually, I doubt that you do it the same way I do.

As for the other question, the relationship "between" them has no meaning for me. I do not relate energy to speed. Energy is the metric we use to express how good or poor a performance was.

I think you are looking for a depth here that is unnecessary in the application of form cycle.

Of course, you may well see it differently. The issue is what works. I suggest that what I have demonstrated significantly clarifies the picture and is quite logical as well.


Those of you who come looking for a complex mathematical formula derived from hours of pouring over physics text books will be disappointed.

Those of you who come looking for a practical way to tell which horses are likely to run today and which are likely to run in relation to the field should be impressed.


And guess what? It picks a lot of favorites! What would anyone expect? A lot of "favorites" win races. But it also picks longshots.

There are two big advantages to this system:
1. It will tell you that some low-priced horses can be bet against with great expectation. I have seen horses as low as 2/5 as virtual throw outs.

2. It will tell you that some high-priced horses can be bet with great confidence.


What it does is give you a picture of the race showing your final contenders along with who among your non-contenders you need to be afraid of.


Dave

Dave,

I asked for an explanation which I didn’t get, but you seem to believe that I am looking for a theoretical textbook concept (which I am not). However I will explain my practical understanding of “energy” as it relates to a horse’s form cycle.

Practically speaking, a horse’s physical form cycle is energized by the following:

• Proper rest
• Proper diet
• Proper conditioning
• Proper medications

Therefore when those 4 variables are optimized you get optimal speed from the horse all other factors being equal and this can be clearly shown graphically and that is the practical relationship between speed and energy in a racehorse.

I realize that the horseplayer will not be privy to the conditioning of the racehorse, but a horse’s performance measurement (if it is properly race entered) over time will speak volumes about its form cycle.

[Tom]

So you have 4 unknowns and all other things are never equal.
Now what?

[raybo]

Not to sound crass, but, available energy can be affected by much more than just current form. It's only one portion of the form picture.

Without addressing the rest of the picture, it will be very unlikely that one can derive current form, or even past form, for that matter.

I'm sure Dave knows this and, in some way, tries to take an accounting of the complete form picture. The question is, has he succeeded?

You guys who do the seminar and use the software let us know. You'll know soon, by checking your bankroll.

Oh don't forget to apply discipline and patience, otherwise Dave's creation will be just another piece of software.

[Dave Schwartz]

Raybo,

Just so you know, the seminar has very little to do with the software. It is really about a paper and pencil approach to form. We do you the printouts from the software to demonstrate the principles but it is the application of the numbers that matter.


And Cratos, I am really not trying to ignore your questions, although explaining how it works would be counter-productive to selling the seminar. The thing is that you are asking questions that really have very little to do with what I am doing.



Dave

[jjflan]

Dave:

My brother, Rich, is very interested in your new form cycle method and wants to try it. Unfortunately he had a stroke some years ago and although it hasn't effected his thinking processes he has difficulty understanding spoken language. For this reason he's concerned about not being able to comprehend fully your video. Is there a written transcription available that could accompany the video?

Thanks,

Jim Flanagan

[Dave Schwartz]

There will not be a transcription available but I have the resources to produce one.

Give a call after November 3rd and we can discuss it.

Dave

[jjflan]

Will do, thanks.

J.

[Dave Schwartz]

We have had several calls today about the pre-release price. We will continue to honor that price as late as Monday afternoon. After that we are going on vacation until Nov. 3rd.

So, the pre-release price is $45 plus $6 shipping & handling. (International shipping is $10.)


Dave

[bcgreg]

Dave,

Are you sure ($45)?

Regards,
bcgreg

[lsosa54]

My charge was $47 + $6 = $53

[Dave Schwartz]

Oops! $47 plus $6.

My mistake.

[Cratos]

Raybo,

Just so you know, the seminar has very little to do with the software. It is really about a paper and pencil approach to form. We do you the printouts from the software to demonstrate the principles but it is the application of the numbers that matter.


And Cratos, I am really not trying to ignore your questions, although explaining how it works would be counter-productive to selling the seminar. The thing is that you are asking questions that really have very little to do with what I am doing.



Dave

Dave,
I understand what you are doing and I don’t want to intrude in your entrepreneurial enterprise. Good luck and I hope you are very successful with your sales.

[bigmack]

2 thingie dingies, Mr Schvartz -

Why not up the vid to the Whorld Whide Wheb and sell passwords urslurping postal costs?

und

Don't forget Virtual Sets for shooting any video. Just shoot with a green screen back and pop-em in a virtual.

With a little make-up you could end up looking as fetching as Mary Hart. :liar:
http://www.virtualset.com/

[Dave Schwartz]

1. A 500mb download is a bit much.
2. I don't want to look like Mary Hart.


My recently-deceased mother-in-law used to say, "When I was a girl all her friends wanted to look like Elizabeth Taylor. Now we do."


Dave

[Sly7449]

Tom, that is correct. You could make the figs from the DRF, from Beyer numbers, from any true speed rating.

After I get this seminar finished (it is about 50% right now) I will find some time to discuss the software here. I am hoping to get a chance for at least one live play sessions before release date. I will not be showing the new software but rather handing out the picks so that the effectiveness can be seen.

This stuff has absolutely changed the way I play forever.

Dave

Dave,

Did I miss the Live Demo and (if so), is the video replay available? I need to review it before the Special Offer Ends.

Thanks

[Dave Schwartz]

Sorry. I just did not have time to do one.

[Dave Schwartz]

Here is a delivery update for you.

On Friday morning our duplicator guys called and significantly "upped" us on price. Like more than double. I guess some of these guys are really shysters. So, I found a 5-1 duplicator within driving distance and got it here by Friday afternoon.

Today we made our own CDs and labels. All current orders are ready to ship!

This duplicator thing is really cool.

Dave

PS: I especially like the part where they said I could not cancel my original order at the original price when I told them I'd do it myself.

[John]

Ok: You guys that odered, I am waiting with baited breath.

:) :) :)

[PaceAdvantage]

Some comments from those who have received their DVD are appearing at the end of the following thread:

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=76137

[John]

Some comments from those who have received their DVD are appearing at the end of the following thread:

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=76137


Thanks Boss.
:) :) :)