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douglasw32
09-23-2010, 06:46 AM
Okay-

So I can pretty much narrow it down to who will win or come 2nd and who the contenders are.

Doing pretty good with my KEY over 3 others and 3 others over my key horse.

But get burned sometime laying out $12.00 and having the exacta hit but only pay $7 something.

Is there a simple way to DUTCH exacta bets ?

teddy
09-23-2010, 08:08 AM
Yes, premier has a thing that works well for small dutches like that. Beware it can get thrown off if you are only beting small amounts, due to difference in exacta payoffs. If you are betting a 2 increment I suggest you put in a bet of $2,000 so it gives you more accurate data. Just move the decimal and round the dollar amount. Other wise it can leave bets off your dutch due to the payoff being way more than the bet amount. Sorry if I am not clear but it sucks when u think u have the horse covered and it does not make the wager for u. That is if u are using thier service. Otherwise there are plenty of manual dutch calcs.

teddy
09-23-2010, 08:11 AM
On strategy, my work with my data base says on exactas to use the top horses and leave off the overbet low quality horses. I think optimal is based on field size but usually top pick with the next 4 pics is pretty good. But in small fields that might be top with next 2. I love to reverse the chalk second, seems to pay way more than u would think.

TrifectaMike
09-23-2010, 08:53 AM
Okay-

So I can pretty much narrow it down to who will win or come 2nd and who the contenders are.

Doing pretty good with my KEY over 3 others and 3 others over my key horse.

But get burned sometime laying out $12.00 and having the exacta hit but only pay $7 something.

Is there a simple way to DUTCH exacta bets ?

I'm assuming you want to do this with software.

Let's state the problem in the following way:

You have exacta combinations e (e1,e2,e3, ...) and the odds associated with each exacta combination o (o1,o2,o3, ...).

Now define the profit you want to achieve p (p1,p2,p3, ...) on each exacta combo.

Set the problem up as a system of equations, and solve it.

Let's set up an example of three exacta combinations.
(this is a 3 by 3 matrix, let's name it A)

[o1 -1 -1]
[-1 o2 -1]
[-1 -1 o3]

and the profit vector (let's name it p)

[p1 p2 p3]

and what we are solving for (the amount to bet on each exacta combo,
let's name it b)



This is the system of equations you will solve (using the Math package included with the program language):

[b]Ab = p

If you want to implement this and need further help, let me know.

Mike

Aerocraft67
09-23-2010, 10:56 AM
But get burned sometime laying out $12.00 and having the exacta hit but only pay $7 something.

Is there a simple way to DUTCH exacta bets ?

The simplest is to buy an extra exacta or two of the lowest-priced contender over your key, particularly if that contender is the favorite, which I presume it is if it's paying $7 on a $2 exacta. If, heaven forbid, you're keying the favorite, you'd buy extra part wheels with the fave on top. Otherwise you'll likely have to raise the investment considerably in order to level out the dutch across several contenders, not to mention collect data from the tote, which may change significantly after you bet. Those are prudent approaches, but they're less simple.

What's maddening about this is that you're throwing a large proportion of the investment at low-odds horses, possibly the favorite, but that's how dutching works. Since even modest exacta wheels like the ones you (and I) play will lose if the fave wins without dutching and escalating the bet size, I concluded that if I must play a favorite, I should cut the play way down, say, F/AB, but even that requires some value in A or B—that is, if A or B are the second fave, you're still likely stuck with an underlay. An $8 payout on the F/AB exacta just gets you back to an even-money proposition at $2 units, which I guess is an improvement over 3/5 win or whatever, but probably still an underlay unless you really believe in all your contenders. Trying to improve the odds with a cold exacta or tiny trifecta wheel really reduces the likely hit rate.

So most of the guys will probably say just don't play $8 propositions on $2 exactas because they're hopeless underlays (i.e., don't play favorites). You'll have a lower hit rate, but higher payoffs on lower investment. I don't mean to question your knowledge by trotting out the whole favorites thing, but it seems pertinent to a discussion of $8 exacta payouts on $12 investments with $2 units, and I've certainly observed the same thing in my humble experience and tried to reckon with it.

xfile
09-23-2010, 02:02 PM
Overlay key horse going off at 8-1 or higher on top with ALL underneath. Frequently catch some big exactas.

pandy
09-23-2010, 03:56 PM
It sounds like your playing too many low paying exactas. If you do not have a longshot key, betting 6 exactas is too much. Cut down your contenders from 3 to 2 and play your key in a $4 exacta box with your 2nd ranked horse, then play another $4 using your key horse on top of your 3rd ranked horse. That is also a $12 bet but if you hit, you get the exacta twice instead of once. Your hit percentage will drop a bit because you are playing less combos, but I guarantee you that this will increase your R.O.I.

If you have a longshot key horse, that's different, then you may be able to get away with what you're doing now, although the method I laid out will probably work better with longshot keys as well. Read Steven Crist's book on Exotic wagering. He shows you how to smash it, rather than nibble. The bottom line is, when you are right, you need to have it more than once.

fmolf
09-23-2010, 08:07 PM
It sounds like your playing too many low paying exactas. If you do not have a longshot key, betting 6 exactas is too much. Cut down your contenders from 3 to 2 and play your key in a $4 exacta box with your 2nd ranked horse, then play another $4 using your key horse on top of your 3rd ranked horse. That is also a $12 bet but if you hit, you get the exacta twice instead of once. Your hit percentage will drop a bit because you are playing less combos, but I guarantee you that this will increase your R.O.I.

If you have a longshot key horse, that's different, then you may be able to get away with what you're doing now, although the method I laid out will probably work better with longshot keys as well. Read Steven Crist's book on Exotic wagering. He shows you how to smash it, rather than nibble. The bottom line is, when you are right, you need to have it more than once.
the way i have been playing it for years,is as follows:
I have an overlay exacta chart that shows which combos are paying overlaid prices and which are underlaid.I then look up my combos odds on the chart to see what they are paying and crosscheck that to the exacta willpays.Sometimes the first two favs. are overlaid,mostly this combo seems to bean underlay though.By insisting you bet only overlaid combos you are assured of covering your bets when you hit.Dick Mitchell wrote a great chapter on exacta strategies in his book "Common Sense Betting " I highly recommend reading this book........the exacta chart canbe found in barry Meadows books.

jfdinneen
09-23-2010, 08:23 PM
TrifectaMike,

I endorse your approach (using matrix solution to set of simultaneous linear equations). In Excel,B is {=MMULT(MINVERSE(A),P)}.

Perhaps, you would outline a worked example for clarity.

John

pandy
09-23-2010, 08:24 PM
You method of using the overlay chart is perfectly logical. But sometimes you just want to bet a particular number. For instance, in harness racing I often bet two horse exacta boxes on horses that appear likely to line-up (race 1-2 all the way around). In those situations I don't care if the exacta pays $9.00 or $39.00, I'm betting it because I'm confident it's going to come in. I'm not going to pass on a winner because the exacta is paying 10% less than my "perfect price." Nobody really knows what the correct odds are, you are just taking a guess.

I've found that any bet that I feel has a strong chance of winning, whether it's an exacta or a win bet, is usually an overlay. I hit an exacta today that paid $8.80, looked like a lock. If you had asked me what I think it should pay before the race I probably would've said $10.00, but after the two horses ran 1-2 far ahead of the rest of the field I realized that $8.80 was actually an overlay.

RaceBookJoe
09-23-2010, 08:36 PM
You method of using the overlay chart is perfectly logical. But sometimes you just want to bet a particular number. For instance, in harness racing I often bet two horse exacta boxes on horses that appear likely to line-up (race 1-2 all the way around). In those situations I don't care if the exacta pays $9.00 or $39.00, I'm betting it because I'm confident it's going to come in. I'm not going to pass on a winner because the exacta is paying 10% less than my "perfect price." Nobody really knows what the correct odds are, you are just taking a guess.

I've found that any bet that I feel has a strong chance of winning, whether it's an exacta or a win bet, is usually an overlay. I hit an exacta today that paid $8.80, looked like a lock. If you had asked me what I think it should pay before the race I probably would've said $10.00, but after the two horses ran 1-2 far ahead of the rest of the field I realized that $8.80 was actually an overlay.

Was that the LBJ heat...think the top 2 were 4-5 and even. Since you cashed your ticket, i guess you could say that you got "over" what you "layed" :)

CincyHorseplayer
09-23-2010, 09:42 PM
Pandy makes a great point.You should be betting the exacta because you like 2 horses in a race or 1 horse with 2 others and expect it to run that way.Or it really isn't worth messing with.

I have been guilty of trying to force less combinations in an attempt to bang up a race,when it's wide open,but I hardly go through and think in terms of "let's line up Horse A with the 3rd and 4th choices because they are overlays" etc etc.

If a race is truly wide open beyond the single horse you like,bet to win or horizontally or don't bet at all.I'd have a base denomination and box all contenders with your key horse.Then assign your own denominations to specific combinations according to the strength of your own opinion.There is no mechanistic way of doing that.Unless eliminating thought is the objective!!:)

douglasw32
09-23-2010, 10:02 PM
Wow, okay thanks everyone, lot to think about.

It seems the simplest would be to look for any that will not pay 50% more than I am betting, and use a different combo with the key.

May miss a few but wouldn't it pay off in the long run.

xfile
09-23-2010, 10:08 PM
This chart might be helpful to someone on the topic of overlay exactas. You will need to use an oddsline with it:
http://www.fullcardreports.com/CAP/o_e_c.asp

CincyHorseplayer
09-23-2010, 10:22 PM
Just don't believe the myth that the exacta is a low probability sucker bet.That's one of the biggest pieces of BS I hear on a regular basis.Picking a horse to win or place with logical contenders,if you have even a rudimentary knowledge of the game is a high cash situation.

But beyond that it presents one of the best ROI situations in the game.Don't force it,but get aggressive on races where YOU think you know what is going to happen and the payoffs are solid.

Mr Saratoga
09-23-2010, 10:53 PM
Please don't lose sight of the fact that if you are playing where they show both exacta, and quinella payoffs, quite often the quinella is a better value.

TrifectaMike
09-23-2010, 11:32 PM
TrifectaMike,

I endorse your approach (using matrix solution to set of simultaneous linear equations). In Excel,B is {=MMULT(MINVERSE(A),P)}.

Perhaps, you would outline a worked example for clarity.

John

Let's consider 4 exactas:

exacta_1 odds 7-1
exacta_2 odds 20-1
exacta_3 odds 14-1
exacta_4 odds 58-1

and we would like to acquire the following profit:

exacta_1 wins $100
exacta_2 wins $40
exacta_3 wins $100
exacta_4 wins $200

The question is, how much do we bet on each exacta?

We can write the system of linear equations as follows:

7b1 - b2 - b3 - b4 = $100
-b1 +20b2 - b3 - b4 = $40
-b1 -b2 +14 b3 -b4 =$100
-b1 -b2 - b3 +58b4 =$100

If you use Excel, it's rather easy to set up (I am assuming you are famil;iar with array formulas. I can see that you are in your question).

1. Enter the coefficent matrix in a nxn range
2. Enter the vector of profits in n-tall column
3. Select a blank n-tall column (This will be your solution. The bet amounts)
4. Type = MMULT(MINVERSE(coefficents matrix range),profits vector range)

Setting up the coefficients matrix is easier than it appears. The odds are always along the diagonal and all off diagonal elements are -1.

Also, this is not limited to like kind bets. You can include a wiin bet or two. Actually any combination of bets as long as you have the odds,

In the above example the computed bets are:

exacta_1 $16.61
exacta_2 $ 3.47
exacta_3 $ 8.86
exacta_4 $ 3.95

Obviously the bets have to rounded up or down to bettable amounts.

Mike

pandy
09-23-2010, 11:58 PM
It was in one of the other races on the Jug card. But there are a lot of examples of this, solid favorites going off a true odds but lower than our "personal odds line."

pandy
09-24-2010, 12:04 AM
Good point. In the old handicapping books, exotics, or exactas were said to be sucker bets. I never could understand that theory, it is nonsense.

PaceAdvantage
09-24-2010, 04:05 AM
This chart might be helpful to someone on the topic of overlay exactas. You will need to use an oddsline with it:
http://www.fullcardreports.com/CAP/o_e_c.aspIf you're going to use Barry Meadow's Exacta Overlay Prices chart, you really should credit him...your chart has the same exact numbers as the one in his landmark 1988 book Money Secrets At The Racetrack.

teddy
09-24-2010, 07:05 AM
I have looked at the chart a few times... winner true odds? is that off odds. tote odds? Personally the underlaid combinations are those that are getting pounded because they make more sense due to racing style. So how can win odds have anything to do with a horses chance of running second. Two speeds may be runnning high figs on lone leads and terrible figs when they dont make the lead. Surely they are being bet to win based on that. I would prefer to rank them by win odds and amount bet to place. Just a thought.

Aerocraft67
09-24-2010, 08:06 AM
the underlaid combinations are those that are getting pounded because they make more sense due to racing style. So how can win odds have anything to do with a horses chance of running second.

I guess the hope is that a significant portion of the exacta pool is selecting contenders on overall ability to perform well and wheeling and boxing accordingly, which would leave contenders that are more likely to place than they are to finish elsewhere somewhat overlaid underneath, particularly if they're not among the lowest odds horses in the win pool. So a low-odds speed survivor winning over a closer for place that was ranked fifth in the win pool might not pay as much as it "should," given the clever use of the fifth win favorite for place while eliminating three of the other four top win prospects, but it might pay O.K. since more money will be focused on the top four contenders regardless of their likelihood to place. That said, a win contender holding on for place is not entirely unreasonable, particularly for close finishes. So the key there is to refine the pace handicapping.

Another thought is that you can use an exacta as a refined place bet. Say you like that high odds closer to finish in the money but figure one of the speeds will win, so you wheel your closer under a few likely winners. I freely admit that I generally can't muster the discipline to make this play without also using the key on top, adding a token win bet, or extending the wager to a trifecta to catch my "underneath key" in show. But it gets to your point about focusing on place contenders. The question is, is this kind of wagering predominant enough in the exacta pool to make truly logical place contenders underlaid?

sammy the sage
09-24-2010, 08:36 AM
Overlay key horse going off at 8-1 or higher on top with ALL underneath. Frequently catch some big exactas.

Yep, those happen EVERY day at EVERY race track... :rolleyes:

and you've posted HOW many PRIOR to an actual race running

how about just an 8/1 winner...you're awful good on those shipper's..AFTER the fact! :lol:

and I can't do it either...or else I would ;)

RaceBookJoe
09-24-2010, 09:34 AM
It was in one of the other races on the Jug card. But there are a lot of examples of this, solid favorites going off a true odds but lower than our "personal odds line."

Anytime you can take an even money favorite and turn him into 3-1 or higher, to me thats a good thing...just as long as the solid favorite actually is a solid favorite. rbj

jfdinneen
09-24-2010, 01:28 PM
Mike,

As you already know...

In line with Arrow-Debreu State Preference Theory, a bet is a special kind of state contingent claim (contract paying differing amounts under different states of world). An outcome (state of world) is a specification of the values of all variables over the relevant time horizon (finish position of all horses in specific race). For example, in a three horse race (A,B,C), there are only six outcomes (ABC, ACB, BAC, BCA, CAB, CBA). An event is a collection of one of more outcomes (result of race) and all bets are on events. If an outcome is part of an event, then the bet on that event pays off, otherwise it pays nothing. All bets are represented as payoff vectors with one element for each state of the world. This notion of payoff vectors is central to the theory of complete markets (non-redundant set of bets). Also, a bet is redundant if its payoffs in every outcome can be duplicated by synthesizing some combination of the other available bets. Every portfolio of bets is a system of linear equations in some unknowns (investment amounts). Furthermore, some collection of the available bets must have payoff vectors that are linearly independent...

In that context, using my simplistic example above, if you believe A to be an overlay are you able to derive (using linear algebra) a portfolio of bets (wps, exotics) to maximize your advantage? Or, to put it another way, is it your experience that parimutuel markets are complete despite the lack of an option to sell short?

John

TrifectaMike
09-24-2010, 02:38 PM
Mike,

As you already know...




In line with Arrow-Debreu State Preference Theory, a bet is a special kind of state contingent claim (contract paying differing amounts under different states of world). An outcome (state of world) is a specification of the values of all variables over the relevant time horizon (finish position of all horses in specific race). For example, in a three horse race (A,B,C), there are only six outcomes (ABC, ACB, BAC, BCA, CAB, CBA). An event is a collection of one of more outcomes (result of race) and all bets are on events. If an outcome is part of an event, then the bet on that event pays off, otherwise it pays nothing. All bets are represented as payoff vectors with one element for each state of the world. This notion of payoff vectors is central to the theory of complete markets (non-redundant set of bets). Also, a bet is redundant if its payoffs in every outcome can be duplicated by synthesizing some combination of the other available bets. Every portfolio of bets is a system of linear equations in some unknowns (investment amounts). Furthermore, some collection of the available bets must have payoff vectors that are linearly independent...






In that context, using my simplistic example above, if you believe A to be an overlay are you able to derive (using linear algebra) a portfolio of bets (wps, exotics) to maximize your advantage? Or, to put it another way, is it your experience that parimutuel markets are complete despite the lack of an option to sell short?




John

A complete market is perfectably hedgeable. In a probabilistic view there exist a unique Martingale measure for a complete market. There exists n wagers with known linearly independent payoff vector and known values. These n wagers form the basis for the n-dimensional space. For example, the lottery is a complete market, since every possible outcome is available for purchase.

And yes, you can derive a portfolio of wagers to maximize your advantage on a per event (race basis)., if at a minimum one overlay exists.

Mike

Actor
09-24-2010, 04:30 PM
Mike,

As you already know...

In line with Arrow-Debreu State Preference Theory, a bet is a special kind of state contingent claim (contract paying differing amounts under different states of world). An outcome (state of world) is a specification of the values of all variables over the relevant time horizon (finish position of all horses in specific race). For example, in a three horse race (A,B,C), there are only six outcomes (ABC, ACB, BAC, BCA, CAB, CBA). An event is a collection of one of more outcomes (result of race) and all bets are on events. If an outcome is part of an event, then the bet on that event pays off, otherwise it pays nothing. All bets are represented as payoff vectors with one element for each state of the world. This notion of payoff vectors is central to the theory of complete markets (non-redundant set of bets). Also, a bet is redundant if its payoffs in every outcome can be duplicated by synthesizing some combination of the other available bets. Every portfolio of bets is a system of linear equations in some unknowns (investment amounts). Furthermore, some collection of the available bets must have payoff vectors that are linearly independent...

In that context, using my simplistic example above, if you believe A to be an overlay are you able to derive (using linear algebra) a portfolio of bets (wps, exotics) to maximize your advantage? Or, to put it another way, is it your experience that parimutuel markets are complete despite the lack of an option to sell short?

John
I love it! :lol:

Actor
09-24-2010, 04:42 PM
...lack of an option to sell short?
Would not dutching every horse except the favorite be the equivalent of a short sale? I.e., you are betting that that particular horse will lose.

markgoldie
09-24-2010, 05:20 PM
A couple of comments about this discussion.

First, exacta overlay charts. They are essentially useless. Why? Because the determination as to whether an exacta is an overlay or not is based on the win odds of the horses involved. Since the win odds at most tracks change drastically at the last minute, the determination of an overlay in the exacta pool is generally not possible with enough time to react in the form of a wager. That is, the basis for considerating an exacta overlaid may change dramatically when the price of the top horse (for example) goes up a point or more at the last second (or even after the race has begun). Similarly, the last minute exacta punches are also coming in very late which makes the certainty of an overlay very difficult.

In fact, the layout of the exacta probables is an excellent barometer of how the final win odds will settle. Since this is true, about all these exacta probables are good for is helping you determine if the late money was "inside" in the sense that it went contrary to the exacta-table's determination of price-value.

Next. As I have said many times, the larger the potential outcomes in a given pool, the more it is skewed toward favored combinations. I won't go over this again, because by now this statement should be settled law. Therefore, if you are planning on using a favorite in the exacta, you are actually better off just playing the horse to win and forgetting gimmicks altogether. Why??

Because any rational assessment that leads to playing a favorite must be based on a determination of value. That is, even though the horse will be favored, you have reason to believe that his closing price will be higher than it should be. Since wagering-pool inefficiencies are difficult to find in the first place (keeping in mind that we are fighting an onerous takeout), by playing the horse in gimmicks, you are combining the favorite with (most probably) underlaid animals. This combination of a skewed pool and the combination of your (hopefully) overlaid horse with underlaid animals is deadly over the long haul. Furthermore, dutching these probables does absolutely nothing to mitigate their essential lack of value.

teddy
09-24-2010, 05:21 PM
so if your exacta price is the same as the chart, then do you bet? or is that what it is expected to pay...

teddy
09-25-2010, 08:00 AM
If you just play the chalk to win, I suggest putting him second. No data but they always pay way more than you expect in that exacta combo.

fmolf
09-25-2010, 09:12 AM
I disagree with you Mark on the statement that all exacta overlay charts are useless.They offer a reasonable estimate using the win odds of the horses or the size of the different pools to gauge whether your combos are paying a fair price.Like a personal odds line made by the player for each race these charts are subject to interpretation by their user.What might constitute a play for Pandy may not for me.I will not make any win play where a horse is below my betting line nor will i play any exacta when it is below a certain price based on Barry Meadows chart. Which i have found to be the most accurate.Lots of races have the first 2 favs as severe underlays in the exacta pools but the fav with a 9/1 shot is not being bet.Without the chart i have no guidelines,save for my experience to tell me if i am getting a fair price.

Aerocraft67
09-25-2010, 12:50 PM
any rational assessment that leads to playing a favorite must be based on a determination of value. That is, even though the horse will be favored, you have reason to believe that his closing price will be higher than it should be. Since wagering-pool inefficiencies are difficult to find in the first place (keeping in mind that we are fighting an onerous takeout), by playing the horse in gimmicks, you are combining the favorite with (most probably) underlaid animals. This combination of a skewed pool and the combination of your (hopefully) overlaid horse with underlaid animals is deadly over the long haul. Furthermore, dutching these probables does absolutely nothing to mitigate their essential lack of value.

This makes sense, but the hopeful logic is the other way around. You determine the favorite an underlay, yet overwhelmingly likely to win the race, so you dare not play against him. But you see overlays for place. So you couple the fave with clever selections underneath in a vertical gimmick in what you reckon is an aggregate overlaid wager, even though the favorite is an underlay in the win pool. Perhaps the depressing effect of the fave in the exacta is insurmountable, but this is the idea.

riskman
09-25-2010, 02:25 PM
I will not make any win play where a horse is below my betting line nor will i play any exacta when it is below a certain price based on Barry Meadows chart.Without the chart i have no guidelines,save for my experience to tell me if i am getting a fair price.

I believe Barry Meadows exacta charts contain a 50% premium over the the 'FAIR" payoffs. Am I correct in this assumption?
There is nothing wrong with this as each one can determine what premium they need.

Valuist
09-25-2010, 03:58 PM
IMO, exactas are one of the best bets at the track. A few simple rules.

1. The only time you should ever consider boxing 3 or more horses is in a race where your only real opinion is you hate the favorite or favorites.

2. The best value in exacta pools is with longshot types in the underneath slot with logical horses in the win slot. Because so many box, the longshots in the "win" slot are often underlaid in the exacta pool.

Don't forget that odds of winning should in no way reflect the odds of horses finishing 2nd in a given race. We see plenty of speedballs who will be all or nothing; get loose and a great shot at winning. But once they start to tire, chances are good they won't hang on for 2nd. And we also see the closing and stalking types who start their move too late and are no threat to win but go all out to edge out a superior horse who's gassed from early pressure.

jfdinneen
09-25-2010, 06:07 PM
Mike,

Thanks for the confirmation.

John

teddy
09-25-2010, 11:17 PM
It seems that everyone has an idea how to play but has anyone found an indepth study on valuation of how best to play an exacta based on off odds. Surely there is someone at sometime that has looked at how they pay with the chalk winning and with mid priced contenders winning..... What is usually underlaid and overlaid..

Actor
09-26-2010, 12:43 AM
Surely there is someone at sometime that has looked at how they pay with the chalk winning and with mid priced contenders winning..... What is usually underlaid and overlaid..Barry Meadow

fmolf
09-26-2010, 09:08 AM
Barry Meadow
well said!...I believe his chart just about assures that you make money if you are any type of handicapper and adhere to it strictly.Also remember that you need to be compensated for all your losing combos as well in each race....Meadows chart allows for this as well.

teddy
09-26-2010, 10:32 AM
Its hardly a study to say get paid back 1.5 times the usual payoff and thats representative of the way to play exactas. Their has to be a sweet spot or some pool advantages to take advantage of the publics mindset. I do know that the WHALES are very much into the exacta pools. So that might be deminished. Im sure they have that strategy covered and the underbet exactas will get pounded by their computers. This may be a waste of time to look for an advantage. Looking thru results I only saw a few exactas that fit into that chart that hit. Quick glance at those saw exactas with 10-1 shots on top came close to meeting the chart requirments but only in a few cases.

markgoldie
09-26-2010, 12:20 PM
This makes sense, but the hopeful logic is the other way around. You determine the favorite an underlay, yet overwhelmingly likely to win the race, so you dare not play against him. But you see overlays for place. So you couple the fave with clever selections underneath in a vertical gimmick in what you reckon is an aggregate overlaid wager, even though the favorite is an underlay in the win pool. Perhaps the depressing effect of the fave in the exacta is insurmountable, but this is the idea.
I think if you undertake an exhaustive study that you'll find this strategy does not work. Why? Because there are few scenarios that pull win bettors into the exacta pool as much as the one you are describing. The "lock" winner who can't pay me enough on my win bet, but on whom I can make some decent money by playing some selected exactas. This is part of the mindset which creates scenarios in which favorites are overbet in larger vertical pools, since it extends very quickly to trifectas and/or superfectas as well.

And so you virtually never get an overlaid aggregate wager in these situations. Also, top-half overlays are generally more potent for creating value than bottom-half overlays. This is true in exactas but really explodes in trifectas and superfectas. That's because the vast majority of dedicated complex vertical players have long since come to realize that boxing groups of horses is not cost efficient. And so they gravitate toward part-wheels in which only certain contenders are put in the top spot, certain others in the second spot, etc. That's why the payouts tend to explode as the price horse works his way up the ladder on the ticket. For ex., a 15-1 in a fourth spot on a super ticket may not do much to enhance the price. But get him up to first or second and the number balloons.

At any rate, in general, if you believe a short-priced horse will win, you are better served playing to win than looking for exactas and that includes dutching exacta probables.

teddy
09-26-2010, 12:37 PM
Mark, sounds like you would be a bc/ abcd exacta dutch player... or any really longshot on top. If you deem the chalk vulnerable. In tri you would play bc with efg with all? From our past talks, I know you like the all button to explode the tri payoff in third. Maybe All is my version of all the horses i think can run 3rd. Not necessarily all.

markgoldie
09-26-2010, 12:58 PM
Mark, sounds like you would be a bc/ abcd exacta dutch player... or any really longshot on top. If you deem the chalk vulnerable. In tri you would play bc with efg with all? From our past talks, I know you like the all button to explode the tri payoff in third. Maybe All is my version of all the horses i think can run 3rd. Not necessarily all.
Think you may have me mixed up with someone else when it comes to the ALL button. I don't believe in it because ticket-structure effieiency is little-understood, but absolutely crucial for long-term success. That being said, there may be very select races in which the all button is required, but such races do not meet my optimum race layout. In general, I like supers and those which feature one of the following: (A) A degree of contentiousness such that it is nearly impossible to predict a winner among 4 or more horses; and (B) Races in which a favorite is vulnerable; and while a book might be written on this particular subject, my main criteria for this is either: (1) A basic mis-interpretation of the quality of recent efforts, or more likely (2) Certain form defects or unknowns.

teddy
09-26-2010, 01:26 PM
OH I remember you like supers, I was trying to make what you said about exactas relevant to what these guys are playing... The supers thing sounds like you need huge wagers and could have long run outs, unless you bet the dime. Your thinking on the exactas sounds like you just dont like the wager. Not enough inefficiency is my guess.

fmolf
09-26-2010, 06:11 PM
when i think i have a good viable value horse in the exacta i only play him straight with one or two overlayed second place horses.I will generally bet more on less combos so if i am correct i will get a nice boost to my bankroll in addition to my prime win bet on the race.Provided one was warranted.I have tried tri's and 10 cent superswith little success.I just cannot seem to pick that third horse in tri's an the 3rd and 4th in supers with any consistency.

Aerocraft67
09-27-2010, 10:27 AM
Turns out we've been here before (http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=60891&highlight=exacta). Post #26 includes data from Jeff P regarding exactas with the favorite coupled with each of the other horses by their win odds rank. It actually suggests that favorites on top offer more value than underneath, particularly with the third through fifth choices in the win pool. The data also shows that betting the first or second favorite to win returns more than the best exacta combos that include the favorite (ROIs of 0.83 and 0.81, respectively). Of course there are limits to conclusions we can draw from random wagering, but this seems to inform the discussion here.

classhandicapper
09-27-2010, 01:02 PM
I've found that any bet that I feel has a strong chance of winning, whether it's an exacta or a win bet, is usually an overlay. I hit an exacta today that paid $8.80, looked like a lock. If you had asked me what I think it should pay before the race I probably would've said $10.00, but after the two horses ran 1-2 far ahead of the rest of the field I realized that $8.80 was actually an overlay.

We think a lot alike for guys that never met and shared thoughts on handicappng and wagering.

My explanation for this that if you look at all favorites they will tend to outperform other horses from a ROI point of view. If you eliminate the bad ones, the remainder will do a lot better. If you stick with the ones you really love it seems be enough to put you over the top without making a careful analysis of the odds. Of course this wouldn't have worked for me 20 years ago because I still lacked the skill to sepreate the bad ones from the real standouts well enough, but it does seem to work now. If I look at something and simply can't seem to imagine how the horse/exacta will lose, they still do occasionally lose, but they are profitable for me.

classhandicapper
09-27-2010, 01:21 PM
My approach to exactas not not very complex.

I typically only go into the exacta pool when I think I have more than 1 overlay in the race. I play an exacta box combining the two (or even 3 of them of them on rare occasions) because it will almost always create more value than betting either of them to win alone.

Sometimes, if I like the favorite and hate another shorter priced horse but deem the favorite too short a price to bet to win, I will put the favorite on top of the horses I rank ahead of the horse I hate. If the hated horse is a short enough price and bad enough, that can create enough value some of the time.

Fastracehorse
09-27-2010, 07:39 PM
Let's consider 4 exactas:

exacta_1 odds 7-1
exacta_2 odds 20-1
exacta_3 odds 14-1
exacta_4 odds 58-1

and we would like to acquire the following profit:

exacta_1 wins $100
exacta_2 wins $40
exacta_3 wins $100
exacta_4 wins $200

The question is, how much do we bet on each exacta?

We can write the system of linear equations as follows:

7b1 - b2 - b3 - b4 = $100
-b1 +20b2 - b3 - b4 = $40
-b1 -b2 +14 b3 -b4 =$100
-b1 -b2 - b3 +58b4 =$100

If you use Excel, it's rather easy to set up (I am assuming you are famil;iar with array formulas. I can see that you are in your question).

1. Enter the coefficent matrix in a nxn range
2. Enter the vector of profits in n-tall column
3. Select a blank n-tall column (This will be your solution. The bet amounts)
4. Type = MMULT(MINVERSE(coefficents matrix range),profits vector range)

Setting up the coefficients matrix is easier than it appears. The odds are always along the diagonal and all off diagonal elements are -1.

Also, this is not limited to like kind bets. You can include a wiin bet or two. Actually any combination of bets as long as you have the odds,

In the above example the computed bets are:

exacta_1 $16.61
exacta_2 $ 3.47
exacta_3 $ 8.86
exacta_4 $ 3.95

Obviously the bets have to rounded up or down to bettable amounts.

Mike

What if U have 1 min to get your:

win, xacta, tri, super, d/d, p-3, and p-4 bets in?

Serious question.

fffastt

Light
09-28-2010, 12:20 AM
This weekend at tracks I played, 30-1 shots and up came in 2nd for these reasons.

9/26
TP 3rd, 75-1 lone speed. Fav on top,exacta $471 for $2.
9/25
TP 5th 52-1 first time for new trainer. Exacta below 4th fav(9/2) $408 for $2.
9/25
Pha 12th 45-1 First time on grass with decent turf breeding. 3rd choice on top $382 exacta for $2
9/26
GG 5th 30-1 with 3rd best speed rating in field from 2 back. 3rd choice on top $323 for $2.

I put this out there as an exacta strategy. Forget about the favorites. One of the top 4 will win 80% of the time,so you will just put them on top of your key. No need to handicap them. Saves a lot of time. Now look at the longest priced horses and I mean bombs,not 8-1. That exacta has to pay or pass. If you can make a case for one of them like the above scenarios,you are only going to need to hit 1 in 30 plays to break even because the average exacta payoff with these bombs is $180 for $1 and your investment each race will be $6. Play $2 to win on the bomb and $4 with the bomb below the 4 chalk. $6 investment per race. You have to lose 30 in a row to lose $180.

You probably won't lose 30 in a row because the reason we miss bombs is not because we cant handicap them but because we focus more on the favorites due to the fear of them beating us. But when you work backwards,and ignore the 4 chalk and concentrate on the bombs,interesting things start to come out in their form.

teddy
09-28-2010, 07:13 AM
I have a hard time believing the chalk underneath is less value. It always seems to pay way more. Especially when the horse is 10-1 on top of a 1-2. The public does not think like that.. they do pound the 1-2 with an long odds horse to make value.

teddy
09-28-2010, 08:42 AM
This weekend at tracks I played, 30-1 shots and up came in 2nd for these reasons.

9/26
TP 3rd, 75-1 lone speed. Fav on top,exacta $471 for $2.
9/25
TP 5th 52-1 first time for new trainer. Exacta below 4th fav(9/2) $408 for $2.
9/25
Pha 12th 45-1 First time on grass with decent turf breeding. 3rd choice on top $382 exacta for $2
9/26
GG 5th 30-1 with 3rd best speed rating in field from 2 back. 3rd choice on top $323 for $2.

I put this out there as an exacta strategy. Forget about the favorites. One of the top 4 will win 80% of the time,so you will just put them on top of your key. No need to handicap them. Saves a lot of time. Now look at the longest priced horses and I mean bombs,not 8-1. That exacta has to pay or pass. If you can make a case for one of them like the above scenarios,you are only going to need to hit 1 in 30 plays to break even because the average exacta payoff with these bombs is $180 for $1 and your investment each race will be $6. Play $2 to win on the bomb and $4 with the bomb below the 4 chalk. $6 investment per race. You have to lose 30 in a row to lose $180.

You probably won't lose 30 in a row because the reason we miss bombs is not because we cant handicap them but because we focus more on the favorites due to the fear of them beating us. But when you work backwards,and ignore the 4 chalk and concentrate on the bombs,interesting things start to come out in their form.


My software had 1 of 20 that placed above 30 to one off odds for $524.

Good profit !!!

teddy
09-28-2010, 09:02 AM
Interesting data.. last 60 plays top 4 with the long shot

wagers $320
return was $650 ish...


all with long shot

wagers $1000 approx and return was $4150 approx.... a 50-1 topped my $30 to one for a $3500 exacta. for most of it.


very few plays though and u have to watch the tote all day...

TrifectaMike
09-28-2010, 09:33 AM
What if U have 1 min to get your:

win, xacta, tri, super, d/d, p-3, and p-4 bets in?

Serious question.

fffastt

Type quickly!!!!

Mike

andicap
09-28-2010, 10:44 AM
I too have enjoyed long-term success putting a favorite above an overlayed horse. It seems counter-intuitive since most people would seemingly overbet chalk in exactas on top, but whether I'm just good at picking horses to finish second or I'm selecting the right races to do so, it's one of my profitable plays in backing up my win overlays.

The only other method that has tested well for me -- and I haven't incorporated it yet -- is just the opposite Not quite hitting the "ALL" button, but using a kitchen sink approach with an overlay in order to hit the big exactas. Needs more testing on my part to see if it works with the overlay on top and bottom. In this second approach, the overlays should be 15-1 or 20-1 or better, somewhat like the strategy described above.


.

Light
09-28-2010, 10:59 AM
Interesting data.. last 60 plays top 4 with the long shot

wagers $320
return was $650 ish...


all with long shot

wagers $1000 approx and return was $4150 approx.... a 50-1 topped my $30 to one for a $3500 exacta. for most of it.


very few plays though and u have to watch the tote all day...

What criteria are you or your software using to pick the long shot exacta key?

Fastracehorse
09-28-2010, 02:49 PM
This weekend at tracks I played, 30-1 shots and up came in 2nd for these reasons.

9/26
TP 3rd, 75-1 lone speed. Fav on top,exacta $471 for $2.
9/25
TP 5th 52-1 first time for new trainer. Exacta below 4th fav(9/2) $408 for $2.
9/25
Pha 12th 45-1 First time on grass with decent turf breeding. 3rd choice on top $382 exacta for $2
9/26
GG 5th 30-1 with 3rd best speed rating in field from 2 back. 3rd choice on top $323 for $2.

I put this out there as an exacta strategy. Forget about the favorites. One of the top 4 will win 80% of the time,so you will just put them on top of your key. No need to handicap them. Saves a lot of time. Now look at the longest priced horses and I mean bombs,not 8-1. That exacta has to pay or pass. If you can make a case for one of them like the above scenarios,you are only going to need to hit 1 in 30 plays to break even because the average exacta payoff with these bombs is $180 for $1 and your investment each race will be $6. Play $2 to win on the bomb and $4 with the bomb below the 4 chalk. $6 investment per race. You have to lose 30 in a row to lose $180.

You probably won't lose 30 in a row because the reason we miss bombs is not because we cant handicap them but because we focus more on the favorites due to the fear of them beating us. But when you work backwards,and ignore the 4 chalk and concentrate on the bombs,interesting things start to come out in their form.

.............however, I have to handicap because if I see a 30-1; there are tri and super possibilties as well

and it's too expensive for me to put 4 on top or whatever in the tri and super

sadly, i have to be pretty much perfect to hit, which means alot of close misses

fffastt

Fastracehorse
09-28-2010, 02:58 PM
Type quickly!!!!

Mike

.....through HPI ( horse player interactive ) where we swipe a card on an autote machine and an account balance is displayed.

We select a track; and go from there. It's very fast and extremely convenient.

there is no need for vouchers; which all of us have misplaced at some time, etc

and it's way faster than playing on the computer

i don't know if u have a similar system where u play

teddy
09-28-2010, 05:35 PM
What criteria are you or your software using to pick the long shot exacta key?
30-1 off odds, must be a top value horse...by that it looks at factors that are proven to provide value... and many long shot winners... my program provides it and I dont know exactly .. usually early speed. or some other factor its top in such as total speed. and long odds...

Light
09-28-2010, 05:50 PM
Sounds good. What's the name of your program?

teddy
09-28-2010, 05:51 PM
I tried it with one morning line odds and it was 1.10 roi.. another way with longer odds was almost 2.00 roi.. but it was with off odds only.. throw out claimers and alowance horse... you need mdns . Turf stuff where the public cant get a line on it..

teddy
09-28-2010, 07:20 PM
Since you would have to watch the odds board all day maybe you can set the ptc dutch tool to send the exacta only when it brings back a min amount.... any other ideas of how to automate and exacta play that is based on one of the horses going off at 30 to one or more...

teddy
09-28-2010, 09:18 PM
This weekend at tracks I played, 30-1 shots and up came in 2nd for these reasons.

9/26
TP 3rd, 75-1 lone speed. Fav on top,exacta $471 for $2.
9/25
TP 5th 52-1 first time for new trainer. Exacta below 4th fav(9/2) $408 for $2.
9/25
Pha 12th 45-1 First time on grass with decent turf breeding. 3rd choice on top $382 exacta for $2
9/26
GG 5th 30-1 with 3rd best speed rating in field from 2 back. 3rd choice on top $323 for $2.

I put this out there as an exacta strategy. Forget about the favorites. One of the top 4 will win 80% of the time,so you will just put them on top of your key. No need to handicap them. Saves a lot of time. Now look at the longest priced horses and I mean bombs,not 8-1. That exacta has to pay or pass. If you can make a case for one of them like the above scenarios,you are only going to need to hit 1 in 30 plays to break even because the average exacta payoff with these bombs is $180 for $1 and your investment each race will be $6. Play $2 to win on the bomb and $4 with the bomb below the 4 chalk. $6 investment per race. You have to lose 30 in a row to lose $180.

You probably won't lose 30 in a row because the reason we miss bombs is not because we cant handicap them but because we focus more on the favorites due to the fear of them beating us. But when you work backwards,and ignore the 4 chalk and concentrate on the bombs,interesting things start to come out in their form.
It just hit in mtn 6th... $360... top 4 with the value horse...

Light
09-28-2010, 09:58 PM
Nice. Still am a bit unclear as to how you are landing on your plays but whatever works!

teddy
09-28-2010, 11:21 PM
Hey mine is truly black box.. my software kinks out the overlays according to ml. It gives the horses a designation. Their place roi is close to 1.00 on their own. Tie them up in an exact with the top 4 and thats pretty powerful I suppose. I would assume most software selects live longshots. They outperform in chaos races is what the data says. Like you would expect. Congrats on your style. Looks solid.

rubicon55
09-29-2010, 05:48 PM
I ran into an unusual situation recently. Based on the chart you provided the link I was playing a turf race in Australia, the winning horse was 11-1 and the second place horse was 7-2. My exacta only paid $20 while the chart showed that it should have been closer to $140. Do you know why there was such a large discrepancy? Just curious on what you think. Thanks.

njstu44
10-01-2010, 05:38 AM
Skip the race....noone can make money playing exactas that pay 7.00

fast4522
10-03-2010, 07:38 PM
Okay-

So I can pretty much narrow it down to who will win or come 2nd and who the contenders are.

Doing pretty good with my KEY over 3 others and 3 others over my key horse.

But get burned sometime laying out $12.00 and having the exacta hit but only pay $7 something.

Is there a simple way to DUTCH exacta bets ?

Doug, my way was to avoid exactas and just stick to the across the board on my key horse in the Tri. My logic was that my key horse hits the board all day on the races I play. Of late though I incorporated your fair odds into my past performance generator. We spend too much time handicapping races and not enough looking at the pools. I placed the fair odds between the PCR rating and my composite rating for the horse. The fair odds that you formulated has been a great help to me, it was my only bet of the day exacta included thank you very much. Now I pass more races and often link everything I can if the odds warrant it.

davew
09-09-2011, 11:40 PM
there is a way to dutch exactas

it is somewhat simple but takes effort in implementation
and it also makes it easier to decide when to pass a race
it works better in large pools that shows big pools early than
small tracks with big percentage showing after close


lets use your key horse example where your choice is A
and the 3 you want to key it with are BCD
A/BCD and BCD/A

so your 6 bets are AB, AC, AD, BA, CA, DA
set a target cash - in my example I will use $200

a couple minutes before post figure how much to bet on each combo to hit your target (so if any combo wins, you get the $200+)

example race 1 - short field your key is even money in 6 horse race
odds -> A=1 B=9/5 C=7/2 D=7

combo= will pay= need bet
AB= 8.60= 47
AC= 13.60= 29
AD= 22.80= 18
BA= 12.00= 34
CA= 28.20= 15
DA= 52.60= 8

looks like $151 needed bet to hit $200 goal
putting that all on place would need to get $2.80 to get more
also need to win around 75% of these break even


example race 2 - 10 horse field your key is 9/2 and others are 5/2, 5, 6
odds -> A=9/2 B=5/2 C=5 D=6

combo= will pay= need bet
AB= 39.80= 11
AC= 83.20= 5
AD= 88.80= 5
BA= 33.00= 13
CA= 90.00= 5
DA= 89.80= 5

IN this example, $44 was wagered to get that $200 cash
and you only need to win 22% of time to break even


you can do this with any combo you desire
keys, boxes, wheels
but limited in your ability to read probables, calculate and place wagers


there also is drift of probables after you take the numbers to calculate
yout bets - which should even out unless your bets are affecting the pool greatly

if you do this, you may want to make a chart and practice a few times
nothing worse than having the combo but getting a wrong number bet on what should have been the winning combo

works great if you can narrow the field to strong contenders
easy way to spew lots of cash if you are missing contenders and including false favorites

iceknight
09-10-2011, 11:31 PM
Please don't lose sight of the fact that if you are playing where they show both exacta, and quinella payoffs, quite often the quinella is a better value.

Quinella is a better value when you have two similar medium priced horses in your winning bet. But a $2 quinella on two mediums pays more than a $1 box exacta where the lower priced one comes out on top!
yes you are right...

citygoat
09-14-2011, 05:51 PM
play $2 exacta ab then play $1tri ba all

cost = number of horses in race

lansdale
09-14-2011, 07:32 PM
OH I remember you like supers, I was trying to make what you said about exactas relevant to what these guys are playing... The supers thing sounds like you need huge wagers and could have long run outs, unless you bet the dime. Your thinking on the exactas sounds like you just dont like the wager. Not enough inefficiency is my guess.

Hi Teddy,

I don't know how many of Mark's posts you've read, but you should be aware that he's a professional exotics player, and IMHO one of the smartest people on this site. If you're interested in beating the exotics, I would listen to everything he says, and do a search on all his posts.

Cheers,

lansdale

TimesTheyRAChangin
09-14-2011, 07:38 PM
Hi Teddy,

I don't know how many of Mark's posts you've read, but you should be aware that he's a professional exotics player, and IMHO one of the smartest people on this site. If you're interested in beating the exotics, I would listen to everything he says, and do a search on all his posts.

Cheers,

lansdale

I miss his posts.
Seems like he stopped almost a year ago,November,to be exact,w/o any warning.

Valuist
03-15-2013, 01:26 PM
Apparently Meadow has a new book, detailing his experiencing playing blackjack in hundreds of Nevada casinos. He's on the March 14 podcast:

http://www.bobdancer.com/radio.cfm

dav4463
03-19-2013, 12:25 AM
This weekend at tracks I played, 30-1 shots and up came in 2nd for these reasons.

9/26
TP 3rd, 75-1 lone speed. Fav on top,exacta $471 for $2.
9/25
TP 5th 52-1 first time for new trainer. Exacta below 4th fav(9/2) $408 for $2.
9/25
Pha 12th 45-1 First time on grass with decent turf breeding. 3rd choice on top $382 exacta for $2
9/26
GG 5th 30-1 with 3rd best speed rating in field from 2 back. 3rd choice on top $323 for $2.

I put this out there as an exacta strategy. Forget about the favorites. One of the top 4 will win 80% of the time,so you will just put them on top of your key. No need to handicap them. Saves a lot of time. Now look at the longest priced horses and I mean bombs,not 8-1. That exacta has to pay or pass. If you can make a case for one of them like the above scenarios,you are only going to need to hit 1 in 30 plays to break even because the average exacta payoff with these bombs is $180 for $1 and your investment each race will be $6. Play $2 to win on the bomb and $4 with the bomb below the 4 chalk. $6 investment per race. You have to lose 30 in a row to lose $180.

You probably won't lose 30 in a row because the reason we miss bombs is not because we cant handicap them but because we focus more on the favorites due to the fear of them beating us. But when you work backwards,and ignore the 4 chalk and concentrate on the bombs,interesting things start to come out in their form.



Have you ever tried it by handicapping your top four, just to throw one of them out and then play two bombs underneath the three you kept from your top four?

What is the lowest odds you accept on the underneath "bomb"?

Investment would go to $10 per race, but I frequently have two bombs I like in a race. If I pick between them; guess which one wins? :)

I am more confident tossing one of the top four than I am tossing one of my two "bombs".

Light
03-20-2013, 02:27 AM
Have you ever tried it by handicapping your top four, just to throw one of them out and then play two bombs underneath the three you kept from your top four?

That post was from 9/28/10. But to answer your question, this is a no handicapping strategy as far as taking the top 4.It seems inevitable that if you do handicap the top 4 and throw one out, there are times you or I will throw out the winner.And when your hit rate is very low using this strategy, you can't afford that.

What is the lowest odds you accept on the underneath "bomb"?

Depends on what the exactas are paying since its really an exacta strategy, not a focus on odds.

dav4463
03-22-2013, 01:11 AM
It is similar to the way I play.

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?p=1412977#post1412977