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Ian Meyers
09-20-2010, 07:30 PM
Has anyone else noticed these? I did not until today when looking over PRM. anyone from DRF that reads this board want to provide some insight?

Speaking personally I'd be much more interested in both Quarters and Arabians with good figures.

BombsAway Bob
09-20-2010, 07:54 PM
Has anyone else noticed these? I did not until today when looking over PRM. anyone from DRF that reads this board want to provide some insight?

Speaking personally I'd be much more interested in both Quarters and Arabians with good figures.
I used DRF Formulator for Sat/Sun at Los Al.
Very interesting stuff, like trainer records with fillies,
and trainers bringing back horses off long layoffs.
I liked it so much,
i may not renew my "Nite Lines" Los AL PP's.

qhrick
09-20-2010, 08:31 PM
I don't remember all the details, but the AQHA had a committee that was working on enhanced speed ratings. Among others, Chris Kotulak was a committee member. These new ratings were introduced for this years All American futurity. Trackmaster produces a rating for q-horses, and that rating has appeared in the Los Alamitos program for some time. It appears that the "new" rating is simply the old Trackmaster number, based on the Los Al program. I'm not really sure

The attempt is to equate final times at all distances, adjusted by some sort of variant. Having reviewed the Trackmaster numbers I would rate them only fair. Probably the single biggest weakness in any q-horse rating is the lack of any adjustment for trouble encountered in a race, without that number, much accuracy is sacrificed. As a quick/dirty guideline to rough ability, I would look at a few recent starts to get a decent baseline. In that way, the ratings serve some purpose

If you see a string of numbers like 81-44-78-85-79. You can pretty clearly estimate somewhere around 80. The one bad number was likely a poor start or much trouble in the race

Most anything should be an improvement over the standard q-horse rating we've had for years, that's the number you will find to the right of a jockey's name. The construct of those numbers is both distance and track based.
In ways, the q-horses are way ahead of of tbreds in at least race timing. All horses are timed to a hundreth of a second, and right from the time the gate opens. No run ups. At one time ( until some point in the 70's ) running times were rounded to the nearest 10th of a second. Anyone who had actual running times then had a BIG edge. Back then, for example, an 18.06 and an 18.14 were both rounded to 18.10. In a game where every .01 counts, that was big

If you want to read more about speed ratings and how they are made/applied:
http://racing.aqha.com/Racing/dynamic_content.aspx?FQD=http://www.aqha.com/aqharacing.com/handicapping/horseplayer11.html