Newbie learning curve

[Learned Hand35]

Teddy's thread got me thinking.

For you veterans of the game, what was the learning curve for you regarding achieving positive ROI or at least negative ROI you could live with until you got back into the black in the next time frame.

My goal after my first year, a realistic one I hoped, was to cut my negative ROI in half. So far this year I have cut it down by a third. My goal was to show my first positive ROI by year four. Don't know if that is going to happen.

Thoughts, experiences, advice?

[DeanT]

It depends on what a newbie is doing, in my opinion.

If they are reading old-time handicapping books and are getting indoctrinated that way, I think it is tough to move from 0.80 to 0.90 in a year. Getting to 1.00 is tough for everyone - newbie or not.

If they are trying to look for edges that others are not from the beginning, and concentrate on gambling their money not just betting it, I think a newbie can do fine at 0.95 pretty quickly.

IMO, to do that, they would need (for example) an ADW that rebates, or be able to play Betfair, figures like CJ's and work on them, or handicapping software, horse behavior in the post parade and some knowledge of and an ability to know how to bet, when to bet and how to bet size.

Just my opinion. But I think the learning curve is much shorter if you try and do something that others are not doing from day one, and concentrate on that the best you can with sound gambling principles.

[thaskalos]

Teddy's thread got me thinking.

For you veterans of the game, what was the learning curve for you regarding achieving positive ROI or at least negative ROI you could live with until you got back into the black in the next time frame.

My goal after my first year, a realistic one I hoped, was to cut my negative ROI in half. So far this year I have cut it down by a third. My goal was to show my first positive ROI by year four. Don't know if that is going to happen.

Thoughts, experiences, advice?It largely depends on how much time you have to dedicate to this game. Learning how to play the game, and then handicapping the races in a comprehensive manner, are time consuming activities. As with any other hobby, the more time you dedicate to it, the quicker you will learn.

Certain handicapping books are a must, if you want to take the "fast track" to learning about this game. The bad thing is that even veteran horseplayers do not often agree on which are the most beneficial handicapping books out there.

For what it's worth, here is my list...to be read in the order given:

1. ) HANDICAPPING 101...by Brad Free...OR,
1A) RECREATIONAL HANDICAPPING...by James Quinn

2. ) THE WINNING HORSEPLAYER...by Andrew Beyer

3. ) PACE MAKES THE RACE...by Tom Hambleton and Dick Schmidt (the large softcover one). This book also offers some great money management and self-discipline advice.

[46zilzal]

I tell everyone and anyone who will listen: FORGET ABOUT LEARNING TO HANDICAP, learn how to gamble first.

When you understand value and overlays, then come back and learn the easier task of finding contenders.

[thaskalos]

I tell everyone and anyone who will listen: FORGET ABOUT LEARNING TO HANDICAP, learn how to gamble first.

When you understand value and overlays, then come back and learn the easier task of finding contenders.Don't you have to learn to handicap, before you can spot value and overlays?

Why can't you learn handicapping first...and then learn how to gamble?

[dav4463]

I'm still on the curve!

[46zilzal]

Don't you have to learn to handicap, before you can spot value and overlays?


No learn odds lines via a myriad of other sports betting until it is 2nd nature

[menifee]

Teddy's thread got me thinking.

For you veterans of the game, what was the learning curve for you regarding achieving positive ROI or at least negative ROI you could live with until you got back into the black in the next time frame.

My goal after my first year, a realistic one I hoped, was to cut my negative ROI in half. So far this year I have cut it down by a third. My goal was to show my first positive ROI by year four. Don't know if that is going to happen.

Thoughts, experiences, advice?

10,000 hours for handicapping. Handicap every card every day. Watch the replays. Before you know it, you'll look at a card and start to see things you never saw before. You'll see how a race will develop and likely winners. You'll be able to spot bad favorites in an instant and live longshots.

Once you do that, then you need to learn how to gamble. That's twice as hard.

[bigmack]

No learn odds lines via a myriad of other sports betting until it is 2nd nature
:lol:

[Charlie D]

My goal after my first year, a realistic one I hoped, was to cut my negative ROI in half. So far this year I have cut it down by a third. My goal was to show my first positive ROI by year four. Don't know if that is going to happen.



I can only go by what you have written so don't take this wrong way.


Stop betting and do more reading would be my advice as it seems you need to gain more knowledge.

[Trotman]

:lol:
Bigmack I agree :lol: "Duh"

[Robert Goren]

Teddy's thread got me thinking.

For you veterans of the game, what was the learning curve for you regarding achieving positive ROI or at least negative ROI you could live with until you got back into the black in the next time frame.

My goal after my first year, a realistic one I hoped, was to cut my negative ROI in half. So far this year I have cut it down by a third. My goal was to show my first positive ROI by year four. Don't know if that is going to happen.

Thoughts, experiences, advice?Quit before you get hooked. If you are smart enough to beat this game, you will make a lot more, a heck of lot more money some place else and you will be a lot happier. I will say this. Nobody I know (or even heard of) who makes any real money at this game wasn't positive almost at immedately. I never heard of any one becoming positive after 4 years of losing.

[Charlie D]

Quit before you get hooked. If you are smart enough to beat this game, you will make a lot more, a heck of lot more money some place else and you will be a lot happier. I will say this. Nobody I know (or even heard of) who makes any real money at this game wasn't positive almost at immedately. I never heard of any one becoming positive after 4 years of losing.



You didn't learn to write like this in a couple of months or years. Why should beating the Great Game be any different.

[Dave Schwartz]

Find a mentor. Years of practicing by yourself is a brute force way of doing this that may never produce fruit.

Consider an sport... How many PGA players do you suppose never took a lesson from anyone? Almost all of them were taught, often at a young age, how to play.

Baseball? Although Little League coaches are famously under-equipped, they provide a beginning level of fundamentals which are then strengthened by coaches at the high school and college levels.

If you want to compete on a level that allows you to win consistently, get some help. Very few people reach their potential all by themselves.


Regards,
Dave Schwartz

[Robert Goren]

Find a mentor. Years of practicing by yourself is a brute force way of doing this that may never produce fruit.

Consider an sport... How many PGA players do you suppose never took a lesson from anyone? Almost all of them were taught, often at a young age, how to play.

Baseball? Although Little League coaches are famously under-equipped, they provide a beginning level of fundamentals which are then strengthened by coaches at the high school and college levels.

If you want to compete on a level that allows you to win consistently, get some help. Very few people reach their potential all by themselves.


Regards,
Dave SchwartzBetting horses has one thing in common with the PGA. Most people who take up golf do not have innate ability to play professional. The same is true of betting horses. The idea that a losing horse player is just one book away from becoming a winning horse player is absurb.

[Dave Schwartz]

The idea that a losing horse player is just one book away from becoming a winning horse player is absurb.

I could not agree more.

Becoming a winning player is not, generally, the result of adding a single idea. It is usually the result of several, small, incremental improvements.

The idea that a player is just one concept away from improvement is very believable.

To me, the logical progression is to learn what everybody is assumed to know. From there, the process is to either prove that some of the things that are so well known are either not true or more true (forget Aristotle here) than the public thinks.

The final idea or two that usually brings it together is adding something that is not so well-known to the equation. The more obscure and counter-revolutionary the idea, the better. Of course, it must be a good idea to begin with.

[Charlie D]

I could not agree more.

Becoming a winning player is not, generally, the result of adding a single idea. It is usually the result of several, small, incremental improvements.

The idea that a player is just one concept away from improvement is very believable.

To me, the logical progression is to learn what everybody is assumed to know. From there, the process is to either prove that some of the things that are so well known are either not true or more true (forget Aristotle here) than the public thinks.

The final idea or two that usually brings it together is adding something that is not so well-known to the equation. The more obscure and counter-revolutionary the idea, the better. Of course, it must be a good idea to begin with.

:ThmbUp:

Sorting the wheat from the chaff

[headhawg]

Find a mentor. Years of practicing by yourself is a brute force way of doing this that may never produce fruit.
...
If you want to compete on a level that allows you to win consistently, get some help. Very few people reach their potential all by themselvesGreat advice. I wish that I had one when I was a noob. Hell! I wish that I had one now! :) The only people that I knew were not winners. I relied a lot on handicapping books and the ones that I read at least drove home the point about value bets.

And as Charlie D just posted, if you can sort out the wheat from the chaff on this site you will also learn a great deal.

[Track Collector]

Learn to model the elements of your handicapping methodology. Then study the records to determine the ROI's of each factor and/or group of factors. Become selective and only make wagers where historical records show you have an edge.

The tricky part will be when to decide when you have enough records for the ROI's to be reliable. (Many small samples show profitability, only to turn in to losses once more records/races are added to the sample.:().

One additional point.....learn the difference between wagering to make a profit and wagering just to have action.

Best wishes and handicapping!

[TEJAS KIDD]

Quit before you get hooked. If you are smart enough to beat this game, you will make a lot more, a heck of lot more money some place else and you will be a lot happier. I will say this. Nobody I know (or even heard of) who makes any real money at this game wasn't positive almost at immedately. I never heard of any one becoming positive after 4 years of losing.


Couldnt disagree with you more.
1. I couldnt imagine doing anything else with my life no matter how much more money I made.
2. From 1985-1993 ALL Terrible losing years.
3. From 1994-Current (with the exception of 2008 that I'd rather forget about) profitable.
Agree with whoever said find a mentor. Or just find someone you know is successful and sit close by and listen to them speak. Some of the sharpest guys I've learned from never even knew they were teaching me (of course, there hard to find now with the internet and adw's in play)
Also agree with whoever said learn how to wager. That's the key to success. I have many friends that go to the track with me. I tell them which horses to bet. I walk out winning thousands and they walk out losers.

[DeanT]

People sitting with Dave for a month or two, with zero handicapping knowledge about horse racing, would be far ahead of someone else who has read every book known to man who did not sit with Dave, imo. That to me, is a little known fact about our game, that others in other games embrace (like poker).

Guys who know how to bet in a similar arena (like poker) already have the skills in place to be a winner with some help. Newbies who don't know how to bet or have those skills are up against it.

If Phil Ivey sat with Dave, or Massa or Platt for example, and who does not know a fetlock from a form cycle, would know edge and common sense by playing poker.

Take for example, a MSW to MCL dropper with a positive jock switch. A newbie would want to bet the horse more than likely. While a guy like Ivey would probably say "he's dropping in class, he is getting this big jockey change and he is advertised as the ML fave, which everyone can see plain as day on the form; so why would I want anything to do with him?"

That horse with those angles is like holding pocket queens, but a gambler knows when to fold pocket queens.

Ivey, or someone like him, would be ahead of 60 or 70% of horseplayers because he would be gambling, not betting and searching for winners. Our game is counterintuitive to many because we are supposed to pick winners, however picking winners has nothing to do with us being successful as horseplayers.

[Native Texan III]

Betting horses has one thing in common with the PGA. Most people who take up golf do not have innate ability to play professional. The same is true of betting horses. The idea that a losing horse player is just one book away from becoming a winning horse player is absurb.

Yes, that's just the way it is Robert.
Nick Mordin wrote that successful punters have natural and learned skill sets that far exceed those of major company CEOs. You also cannot just work at it and ensure success. You have to work very smart, not hard. Unlike real life, there are no compensatory prizes for near misses - it's tough. About 4% scrape a tiny profit and 1% a living.

[Dave Schwartz]

Nick Mordin... isn't that the guy who told us at Saratoga one year that he never bets?

(Doesn't negate his good advice.)

[Greyfox]

Take for example, a MSW to MCL dropper with a positive jock switch. A newbie would want to bet the horse more than likely. While a guy like Ivey would probably say "he's dropping in class, he is getting this big jockey change and he is advertised as the ML fave, which everyone can see plain as day on the form; so why would I want anything to do with him?"

.

Your example wouldn't be an automatic toss in my play and the newbie may be right over Ivey. A MSW to MCL drop and Positive Jockey Switch are huge factors in Southern California. It may be the favorite, but it cannot be ruled out until you've determined that it's vulnerable in the race.
Low odds alone do not make a horse vulnerable.

[Robert Goren]

The one piece of advice I will give. You need think about certain situations that arise from time to time ahead of time. A classic example of this is a horse who ran a reasonable close 2nd or 3rd in a stakes races at fairly high odds dropping back into a NW of 1 or 2 or maybe even a maiden race. What do you think about that horse? You should have idea of about it (and others just like it) before you see in it in the past performances. There are hundreds of cases like that one where you should not be trying guess what do as the post time approaches. You need to think it through ahead of time without the pressure of making a bet. Very good poker players do this. It is like knowing chess openings. If you play "on the fly" you will get burned bad.

[DeanT]

Your example wouldn't be an automatic toss in my play and the newbie may be right over Ivey.

He may be right - in fact he is by my database over 32% of the time. But at a 0.70 ROI, people like Ivey will be tossing said horse out often times, trying to get paid a nice score to be ROI positive, and not worrying about losing a ticket 32% of the time.

Any "obvious" bet into 22% takeout is a bad bet in racing. If everyone else is doing something, true gamblers with a shot at beating the rake want nothing to do with it.

This is difficult for people to understand because handicapping books, ad nauseum, have conditioned them to do one thing and one thing only - pick winners. Picking winners that everyone else is picking is a one way ticket to the poor house.

[Robert Goren]

Ivey, or someone like him, would be ahead of 60 or 70% of horseplayers because he would be gambling, not betting and searching for winners. Our game is counterintuitive to many because we are supposed to pick winners, however picking winners has nothing to do with us being successful as horseplayers.The ability to pick winners is under rated by many so called experts of the game. Whenever I hear the term value picks, I think of the old story told by stat profs everywhere of a drunk walking following the center line of a busy hi way. On average he will be very close the the center line, but it doesn't matter because he will be dead.

[speculus]

Teddy's thread got me thinking.

For you veterans of the game, what was the learning curve for you regarding achieving positive ROI or at least negative ROI you could live with until you got back into the black in the next time frame.

My goal after my first year, a realistic one I hoped, was to cut my negative ROI in half. So far this year I have cut it down by a third. My goal was to show my first positive ROI by year four. Don't know if that is going to happen.

Thoughts, experiences, advice?

Most losers who enter this game with stars in their eyes make the grave mistake of thinking this is quick and easy money.

Quick? Maybe.

Easy? Hell, NO.
Millions of bankrupts will take the stand to say it was not their experience.

But then again, there is a paradox.

Once you have a winning method in place, and patience & discipline NOT to venture out of your circle of competence whatever the temptation, the game is easy, in the sense it then becomes 'mechanical'.

[thaskalos]

You have to have a pretty big edge over your competition if you are going to beat the takeout in this game...but it doesn't necessarily need to be a handicapping edge.

If you have the ability to control your emotions under pressure...if your financial situation is stable, and it allows you to operate without the constant strain of money worries...if you have adequate time to dedicate to the game, making sure that your work is done in a comprehensive, error-free manner...all these are advantages that give you a sizeable edge over the competition by themselves.

Out-handicapping the competition is not the only edge...avoiding the mental gaffes that most people make is another big advantage, IMO.

[Aerocraft67]

I'm a new player too. The question posed here is refreshingly reasonable. Achieving a positive ROI is obviously a worthy goal. But how realistic is it? If only the top 5% of players sustain a profit, are we willing to do what it takes to be part of that 5%? If not, is it acceptable not to sustain a positive ROI? Or must the hapless losers play in shame whilst lining the pockets of the smarties?

This thread includes references to other sports, including golf. Are they not worth pursuing unless we aspire to turn pro and profit from them? I'm not a golfer, but I suspect that equipment and fees can run into the thousands per year for even a modestly avid player. To put it in extreme terms, you could wager $400 per month on random horses and reliably spend $1,200 per year on your pastime. That's a lot of action for a modest expense compared with many other pursuits that have absolutely no chance of yielding a profit.

I don't mean to make a gratuitous devil's argument for being a losing horseplayer, or make excuses for being one, and I'm certainly not recommending betting random horses as a fulfilling pastime. But I am trying to put the endeavor into perspective, especially after reading a lot of ultimately uninspiring threads about profit and playing at a professional level. I appreciate the wisdom of top-notch players and those that aspire to be among them, but sometimes the standard for success can seem a bit severe (a sentiment that's perhaps driven more by the latter group than the former). I mean, just beating the takeout on a sustainable basis is a worthy measure of success, and that milestone is still a way's off from profit.

[thaskalos]

I'm a new player too. The question posed here is refreshingly reasonable. Achieving a positive ROI is obviously a worthy goal. But how realistic is it? If only the top 5% of players sustain a profit, are we willing to do what it takes to be part of that 5%? If not, is it acceptable not to sustain a positive ROI? Or must the hapless losers play in shame whilst lining the pockets of the smarties?

This thread includes references to other sports, including golf. Are they not worth pursuing unless we aspire to turn pro and profit from them? I'm not a golfer, but I suspect that equipment and fees can run into the thousands per year for even a modestly avid player. To put it in extreme terms, you could wager $400 per month on random horses and reliably spend $1,200 per year on your pastime. That's a lot of action for a modest expense compared with many other pursuits that have absolutely no chance of yielding a profit.

I don't mean to make a gratuitous devil's argument for being a losing horseplayer, or make excuses for being one, and I'm certainly not recommending betting random horses as a fulfilling pastime. But I am trying to put the endeavor into perspective, especially after reading a lot of ultimately uninspiring threads about profit and playing at a professional level. I appreciate the wisdom of top-notch players and those that aspire to be among them, but sometimes the standard for success can seem a bit severe (a sentiment that's perhaps driven more by the latter group than the former). I mean, just beating the takeout on a sustainable basis is a worthy measure of success, and that milestone is still a way's off from profit.Horse racing is an "acquired taste"...even among gamblers. The vast majority of gamblers have no interest in this game, and they ridicule those of us who do.

You make repeated references to "betting" on horses in your post...and even mention betting on random horses as a "pastime".

What you fail to realize is that, for most of us "serious" players, the betting aspect of the game was not the first attraction...the handicapping aspect of it was what initially "hooked" us. And once you become attracted to handicapping...then the gradual improvement you make along the way is more a labor of love...rather than the struggle that you may now perceive it to be.

If the handicapping part of the game does not appeal to you, and you view this game as just throwing a few bucks on some random horses...then you will not avail yourself of the opportunity to really learn this game, and you are not likely to be in it for long...

[jelly]

Teddy's thread got me thinking.

For you veterans of the game, what was the learning curve for you regarding achieving positive ROI or at least negative ROI you could live with until you got back into the black in the next time frame.

My goal after my first year, a realistic one I hoped, was to cut my negative ROI in half. So far this year I have cut it down by a third. My goal was to show my first positive ROI by year four. Don't know if that is going to happen.

Thoughts, experiences, advice?




One of the biggest things you can do to help your ROI is not to bet anything with a takeout of over 15%.

[DeanT]

Aero,

You bring up a great point. The take is very high and beating it is hard. A new guy coming in can not get hooked because it is so very hard, so he looks to other games to put some time into (betting sports, or poker). We have seen that time and time again, and it is a huge reason why we are sinking at 10B in handle, while other skill games get over $400B in legal handle.

I had a friend who got out of racing after 25 years for poker. It was not a quick change, he just one day put $200 in a poker account. After six months he had $100. He played for a half a year three times a week or so, for many hours all on his original bankroll. He thought he could beat the game.

In racing, it is why I am of the opine that trying to gamble your way to learning it is best. Sign up with an ADW that can give you rebates. Dont bet what everyone else is betting. Try and grind out a few dollars while you get better, and try and last the bankroll.

With a 8% rebate at some smaller tracks you can give it a go like a poker game. For example, using something rudimentary like Bris Prime Power, not betting the #1 ranked who are ML chalk, with a solid win rebate, can get you up in the 0.90's (last year with no rebate it was 0.90 and this year about 0.89). As you get better, playing track biases or what have you, you might be even or maybe even up a bit, and you can last, like that poker playing friend of mine.

People do not have time to learn racing and handicapping and betting because it is a different world today, than it was yesterday. Some folks who gamble have found betfair and with no skill on racing barely at all, can make big money being good at what they do (http://adamheathcote.blogspot.com/). We do not have that in the US, so that is a non-starter, but the principles are similar - get a good price, keep it simple and give it a shot, just like if you were trying to bet a football game, or playing a 50 cent/$1 table in online poker.

My 2 cents.

I wish racing would help you be a long term customer with more choice and better pricing, but I aint holding my breath.

[Aerocraft67]

What you fail to realize is that, for most of us "serious" players, the betting aspect of the game was not the first attraction...the handicapping aspect of it was what initially "hooked" us. And once you become attracted to handicapping...then the gradual improvement you make along the way is more a labor of love...rather than the struggle that you may now perceive it to be.

If the handicapping part of the game does not appeal to you, and you view this game as just throwing a few bucks on some random horses...then you will not avail yourself of the opportunity to really learn this game, and you are not likely to be in it for long...

Let me say again that I do not view the game as random wagering; I just wanted to make a point about the relative cost of a hobby. That handicapping is engaging is a primary reason I play, too. Although wagering strategy is certainly fascinating, too.

We're partly trying to make the same point, that handicapping and wagering are worthwhile and enjoyable. I'm exploring the prospect of pursuing that as part of a group including 95% of players that will most likely not profit from it. I view it as a worthy pursuit with expenses associated with it. I'm not arguing against achieving a profit, but I am exploring the merit of pursuit despite not profiting, or not insisting on terribly unlikely profits as a condition of playing.

[Aerocraft67]

The take is very high and beating it is hard. A new guy coming in can not get hooked because it is so very hard, so he looks to other games to put some time into...I wish racing would help you be a long term customer with more choice and better pricing, but I aint holding my breath.

Horse racing is an "acquired taste"...even among gamblers. The vast majority of gamblers have no interest in this game, and they ridicule those of us who do.

I know takeout has been discussed exhaustively elsewhere, but as it relates to realistic profit expectation for newcomers, it's obviously a huge factor. I guess the only thing keeping racing viable for a newcomer is the possibility, however remote, of making a profit. Just the principle must be sufficient to continue play. Otherwise, for the vast majority of players, they'd be better off financially playing casino games.

We're having a serious discussion about overcoming a takeout that implies at best a .85 baseline ROI, yet trying to achieve more than 1.00. We speculate that only 5% of players accomplish the latter. Let's be generous and say that 10% of players hit .99. Thing is, a disciplined craps player can be assured of an ROI between .99 and 1.00 over the long term (albeit absolutely less than 1.00). So 90% of horseplayers have no realistic chance of beating the game of craps in terms of ROI, which is guaranteed to produce a loss over the long term.

No wonder they think we're crazy. I don't want to let the industry off the hook and make a case for a viable enterprise based on players with insurmountable prospects for financial gain. At the same time, I want to be realistic about what can be achieved here for the vast majority of players, and suggest that it's reasonable to pursue the game with those realistic expectations. More bluntly, not achieving a profit does not mean you're a failure and should leave the game in shame.

[thaskalos]

Let me say again that I do not view the game as random wagering; I just wanted to make a point about the relative cost of a hobby. That handicapping is engaging is a primary reason I play, too. Although wagering strategy is certainly fascinating, too.

We're partly trying to make the same point, that handicapping and wagering are worthwhile and enjoyable. I'm exploring the prospect of pursuing that as part of a group including 95% of players that will most likely not profit from it. I view it as a worthy pursuit with expenses associated with it. I'm not arguing against achieving a profit, but I am exploring the merit of pursuit despite not profiting, or not insisting on terribly unlikely profits as a condition of playing.Sorry Aerocraft...

I have gone back and read some of your prior posts, and I now know a little more about you than I did when I made my reply to you in this thread.

When I read your comment about the road to profitability "being a bit severe"...I thought that you were a totally new player, who has not yet been exposed to the enjoyable parts of this game.

If I had to give you one piece of advice now...it would be to reconsider your position about giving Mountaineer Park a sizable share of your play. It is a very hard track to get a handle on...with many occurrences that are hard to explain.

[Native Texan III]

Nick Mordin... isn't that the guy who told us at Saratoga one year that he never bets?

(Doesn't negate his good advice.)

He used to bet full time in South Africa (9% tax) and UK (0% tax).
Don't expect he would bet in USA with the take out and tax which is what he might have meant in Saratoga.
He spends most of his time writing books and weekly articles which are some of the most thought provoking in the business. Not that the normal standard is too hard to beat. He also makes speed ratings for half a dozen countries which makes his annual Breeders Cup analysis well worth reading (supplied to PA in the past).

[46zilzal]

If I had to give you one piece of advice now...it would be to reconsider your position about giving Mountaineer Park a sizable share of your play. It is a very hard track to get a handle on...with many occurrences that are hard to explain.
Try NYRA...It is usually formful with better horses and you have multiple distances and surfaces to learn from.

[Dave Schwartz]

Maybe Sweetye John can confirm. He brought someone - I thought it was Nick - to Saratoga one year. When I asked him about his play he said, "Oh, I never bet. Everything I write about is theoretical."

But before this goes any further - until I can get confirmation from John, let's assume that I have this wrong. I do not wish to be guilty of spreading rumors about an author that might be incorrect. I really should have checked my source first.

Regards,
Dave Schwartz

[Overlay]

Maybe Sweetye John can confirm.

I've always enjoyed his posts, too, but I wouldn't go that far! :)

[Learned Hand35]

I can only go by what you have written so don't take this wrong way.


Stop betting and do more reading would be my advice as it seems you need to gain more knowledge.

I don't get get offended and appreciate your honesty. I have a few books and always looking for more to mine a nugget or two that will get me thinking about something new or a tweak to my system.

I believe in this game as in life in general, there is a lifelong learning process and always looking to gain more knowledge with the wisdom to put that knowledge to good use.

I do feel I am on the right track and my knowledge base continues to grow. I think my bigger problem is the discipline aspect from the other thread.

My ROI for this year so far is .77 My biggest problem still seems to be betting on marginal plays were I don't have a strong enough feeling and playing crap tracks where I have shown no ability.

For instance: My ROI on 357 bets at Belmont last year was 1.57 Some other crap tracks that I should not be touching or other tracks where I know I can't figure out was substantially in the negative. Santa Anita on 338 bets ROI of .46 Might be too small sample and could be just beginners luck, but it really seem to feel like I "got" Belmont.

Again, I do appreciate the insight.

[Learned Hand35]

Quit before you get hooked.


Too late. Fallen in love and no signs of divorce. :)

[Charlie D]

:cool: LH. Keep working on those other tracks (analyse the results) but resist the tempatation of investing. ;)

[Nitro]

I’ve read through this entire thread and it looks like there’s varying opinions on what someone new to the game should consider when they’ve decided to get involved. While some have emphasized learning handicapping techniques first, others talk about getting a handle on the betting side of the game. Both of these things are important, but the newcomer has to realize they’re ONLY a means to an end. The newcomer has to decide at some point just what they want to get out of this game.

That’s why there are so many different levels of players from the casual weekend warrior to the Pro and everything in between. Most at any level want to win money and that should be the ultimate goal. The desired amount of money and consistency for winning that money should dictate how much someone needs to learn about the game.

I find that those who focus too much on the handicapping tend to become fans rather then players. Many seem to think that handicapping a 10K Claimer is the same as a Grade-1 Stakes. They’re too caught up on believing everything they read in both the handicapping books and later in the Form. On the other hand those who emphasize the betting seem to have more of the desire to just “gamble”. Either of these profiles are fine for those who are not seriously involved because they don’t offer any real expectations for long term profitability.

If you’re looking to pursue greater rewards and operate at a higher level, then think about all of the handicapping books and literature as your basic education. Then consider yourself an apprentice and learn how to apply your education by seeking out those who are already successful (your mentors). Try to absorb as much as possible about playing the game from their perspective. Then and only then can you expect any real results. Anyone who believes that a graduate of higher education can go out into the real world and perform as well as those with years of practical experience is really only kidding themselves.

Good Luck!

[Charlie D]

If you’re looking to pursue greater rewards and operate at a higher level, then think about all of the handicapping books and literature as your basic education. Then consider yourself an apprentice and learn how to apply your education by seeking out those who are already successful (your mentors). Try to absorb as much as possible about playing the game from their perspective. Then and only then can you expect any real results. Anyone who believes that a graduate of higher education can go out into the real world and perform as well as those with years of practical experience is really only kidding themselves.





:ThmbUp: to those comments Nitro.


Sort the wheat from the chaff.

[Beachbabe]

Teddy's thread got me thinking.

For you veterans of the game, what was the learning curve for you regarding achieving positive ROI or at least negative ROI you could live with until you got back into the black in the next time frame.

My goal after my first year, a realistic one I hoped, was to cut my negative ROI in half. So far this year I have cut it down by a third. My goal was to show my first positive ROI by year four. Don't know if that is going to happen.

Thoughts, experiences, advice?

A positive ROI in a year is no indicator of how good a handicapper or money manager you are; nor will it push you to even higher goals the following year.
You can make 1,000 bets at, lets say $20 a bet,....lose 999 of them and hit one pick 6 for 30k and have a postive ROI.
Rather, check out how many winning wagers you made as compared to the year before. That'll show whether you're getting better at the "game".

[fmolf]

I keep separate records Beach for every different type bet .....this is easy for me as i am an old school win and exacta bettor.I would recommend to any new player that they keep detailed records of what types of bets and what types of races they have the best roi in......What is happening with hialeah now?

[Dave Schwartz]

Beach,

Can you explain your tag line? I don't get it.


Dave Schwartz

[Overlay]

Can you explain your tag line? I don't get it.

In the context of a superfecta, perhaps?

[Beachbabe]

Beach,

Can you explain your tag line? I don't get it.


Dave Schwartz

What's to get ?
It's like a joke......hello !!
If it offends you religiously I'm sorry.

Yeah, I think superfecta might cover it.

[Robert Fischer]

some generics off the top

1.Know Yourself - why are you doing this? What are you willing to do? Know your style, interests, limits etc...
2.attain insight into Wagering
3.attain insight into The Sport
4.Stand on the Shoulders of Giants =if it interests you to do so, take advantage of: teachers, books, and self improvement(including virtues and complimentary skills)

[Learned Hand35]

A positive ROI in a year is no indicator of how good a handicapper or money manager you are; nor will it push you to even higher goals the following year.
You can make 1,000 bets at, lets say $20 a bet,....lose 999 of them and hit one pick 6 for 30k and have a postive ROI.
Rather, check out how many winning wagers you made as compared to the year before. That'll show whether you're getting better at the "game".

That is an interesting perspective BB. I have been concentrating on ROI as I have learned from the wonderful resource that is this board. I actually had to go back and calculate for YTD as I haven't in a month or so, and found that my win % this year is currently up from last year 6%, pretty commensurate with my ROI improvement. However, your point is well taken and need to pay more attention to win %.

[Greyfox]

What's to get ?
It's like a joke......hello !!
.


Questioning the tagline looked like a calling card to me.
I don't think you offended Dave.
With that great avatar , I think he's wants to know:
"What beach are you on babe?":D
(Of course I've been wrong before. In the instance above, the high 5 came into play.)

[Dave Schwartz]

BB,

Lighten up!

I wasn't offended in the least. I just do not understand... why is it funny?

[Greyfox]

Alternative Suggestion to Beachbabe:

tagline ( example )

I told a guy named Moses that a longshot would come forth.
He bet it and won.
He gave me a fifth.
I drank it.
Upon leaving I think he said: "Red....See... Parting ....is such deep sorrow."

[Dave Schwartz]

Now, I can see the humor in THAT!

[Greyfox]

Now, I can see the humor in THAT!

Good on you Dave. You and I might be the only ones who do. :lol:
That is a groaner.

[Beachbabe]

BB,

Lighten up!

I wasn't offended in the least. I just do not understand... why is it funny?

My uncle told it to me.
And anything my unc said sounded funny.

Anyway, it got your attention.
Once I get my own website with my expert picks, I'll put the links up & remove the "joke". :cool:

[Greyfox]

My uncle told it to me.
And anything my unc said sounded funny.



Did he tell it to you when you were in Grade 5? :lol:

[Beachbabe]

Did he tell it to you when you were in Grade 5? :lol:

I skipped that grade, Greyfox.
Went right in the Army after 4th.

[Investorater]

I've been wondering what ever happened to that Exotic Dancer....? :D

The serious horse player is one who has a method of keeping track of his/her action. Over any time frame an accurate record of wagers, number of wins, and the amounts of pay-off will do as much to make us a winner as any method of picking a horse. What every player must know is percentages. What percentage of races that you bet do you win? What is the average pay-off? To get a clear picture of your action you should multiply your pay-off by your win percentage.

Example > ON 2.00 BET
of all the races you play (100%) you win 28%
of the pay-off average which is $8.00
.28 @ $8.00 = $2.24_You have made .24 on $2.00

Only by paying attention to the averages can you see your real take, and your real cost. The above is a way to get your R.O.I.R. > Return On Investment Ratio.

[Learned Hand35]

Only by paying attention to the averages can you see your real take, and your real cost. The above is a way to get your R.O.I.R. > Return On Investment Ratio.

I am so glad I started this thread. Everyone's ideas and thoughts are really getting me thinking. (For example the above.) I hope it is helping our lurkers.

PA is the best resource on the web for this game. If you don't find the answer someone will point you to it.

[Greyfox]

I am so glad I started this thread..

Yes. Thank you for starting it as well.
Sorry for taking it a bit off track.
I still think that there's a lot more meat on this chicken so let's keep it going.

But in the meanwhile, there is a Question begging an answer?

"Was that a blonde joke that Dave S. didn't find funny?" :lol:
or
"Was that a blonde joker that didn't find Dave S. funny?":lol:

Luv ya Dave and Babe. :ThmbUp:

[Learned Hand35]

Yes. Thank you for starting it as well.
Sorry for taking it a bit off track.

I just realized how I sounded with my post. I hadn't been home too long from a rough day and a few (or six) post work happy hour drinks and started spewing my thoughts without engaging internal filter.

I truly do appreciate the informative as well as humorous posts.

[Robert Fischer]

1.Know Yourself - why are you doing this? What are you willing to do? Know your style, interests, limits etc...

can't stress this enough.
If I were to lay outthe steps that I take, I think it would be foreign and above and beyond the technology(meaning process, not gadgetry) and commitment of what most newbies would be willing to invest. A lot of stuff is simply not an interest to many players and I might describe it as old-dog-new-tricks or simply not-cup-of-tea...

[raybo]

One of the biggest things you can do to help your ROI is not to bet anything with a takeout of over 15%.

Except superfectas, I hope!