MENTAL GAME

[teddy]

Has anyone heard of good advice to manage the mental game. When you have success with an method and it runs your bankroll to a new high. Then for some reason you seem to go haywire and start betting tons of different wagers. Things not in your "system" because you get the cant lose mentality from all the success. Then you start to lose, get behind , start chasing and blow your bankroll. I have done this 10 times or more and seen friends do the same.

I think its as hard to defeat as the game itself. Please no silly answers like dont go haywire and bet other races out of boredom. We all know thats impossible and we are all guilty of it.

[Charlie D]

Mr R Taulbot


patience with a capital "P"



http://www.americanturf.com/pace/rayarticles.cfm?articleid=22

[thaskalos]

Mr R Taulbot




http://www.americanturf.com/pace/rayarticles.cfm?articleid=22 (http://www.americanturf.com/pace/rayarticles.cfm?articleid=22)Is this meant to imply that you agree with Mr. Taulbot's wagering advice Charlie?

[Charlie D]

Nope!!


My post does however, imply i agree with him regarding patience is needed in this Great Game.

[thaskalos]

Has anyone heard of good advice to manage the mental game. When you have success with an method and it runs your bankroll to a new high. Then for some reason you seem to go haywire and start betting tons of different wagers. Things not in your "system" because you get the cant lose mentality from all the success. Then you start to lose, get behind , start chasing and blow your bankroll. I have done this 10 times or more and seen friends do the same.

I think its as hard to defeat as the game itself. Please no silly answers like dont go haywire and bet other races out of boredom. We all know thats impossible and we are all guilty of it.I hope you don't think that this is a silly answer...because it is something that it took me years to learn.

The most important quality that a horseplayer can have if he hopes to profit in this game, is discipline. Without discipline...even the best handicapper in the world is flirting with financial disaster.

What is discipline?

It is not easy to say what it is...but it is much easier to state what it isn't.

If you change your system or method every time you hit a losing streak...if you cannot accept a losing day at the track without making desperate efforts in order to get even...if you increase your bets when you are losing...if races that looked unplayable at home, suddenly become playable at the track when you are losing...then you don't have the discipline that we are talking about.

And if you are playing with insignificant money whose loss can easily be chalked up to entertainment...that's fine.

But if you are playing for serious money, and you lack discipline...then you are dead.

You just don't know it yet...

[Charlie D]

:ThmbUp: :ThmbUp: to that post thaskalos.

[teddy]

Thanks, the article was very good and it cracked me up because I'm a place player haha..... The article really reinforces the disapline needed to be successful. The silly answer is the best answer and really is correct. Stop betting when you win your profit goal. That would stop my issue of going wild and playing after I am way ahead. Removing profits from my bankroll would reduce the sense of wasting my time trying to win $100 when im ahead 3k for the week. With a low bankroll I would feel less likely to bet large amounts and to deminish mentally the accomplishments of winning $100.

[Ted Craven]

I've thought about this a lot and would agree with you that mental skills are the absolute dead-centre key to success in this game. We don't need 'more, better, best' analysis tools or wager decision tools - just pick a good one and master it. We need to master ourselves during the often counter-intuitive process of making decisions on imprecise information, in a risk environment where anything can happen in the short-term, over a long-term series of events.

You may find the following link useful: http://sartinmethodology.com/betting-psychology-mind-for-consistent-results

Ted

[46zilzal]

We don't need 'more, better, best' analysis tools or wager decision tools - just pick a good one and master it.


in a nutshell

[Charlie D]

Teddy


Not sure if it would help, but can you not make use of these conditional interfaces that are available.

Input your bets and leave them to trigger while your relaxing doing something else, if your conditions are not met no damage done.

[Learned Hand35]

Has anyone heard of good advice to manage the mental game. When you have success with an method and it runs your bankroll to a new high. Then for some reason you seem to go haywire and start betting tons of different wagers. Things not in your "system" because you get the cant lose mentality from all the success. Then you start to lose, get behind , start chasing and blow your bankroll. I have done this 10 times or more and seen friends do the same.



I am still new to the game (not quite two years), and I have already done his too many times to count. I am modest hobby player, but I have run my bankroll up to serious money as defined by my means, and then crashed and burned exactly how you described.

1. I tried writing those :bang: moments down and the date so as to have a reminder to "never do that again." Worked for awhile and I still avoid certain tracks, but was not the complete solution.

2. Next I tried putting aside a small portion for action bets, but realized those action bets really add up when playing with a small bankroll.

3. Right now I am trying the cold dime super with live longer odds horses for action. That seemed to work and even hit a cold $200.00 dime super. Recently however, "I did it again."

My wife is supportive and impressed when I am playing smart, but says I don't have the traits to show the discipline over the long run to not have to reload the bankroll. (At least, that is what she told me when she took the majority of the cash from my first signer.)

Fact is, she is right.

[46zilzal]

The mental game has to be learned and become ingrained.

The best thing is to KNOW yourself. Keep a diary of your logic, wager choices and why. REVIEW....It is where I discovered two situations that hemorrhaged money for some time before I was even aware of it.

Understand that handicapping is not wagering but only the first step in isolated contenders before you THEN tackle wager creation if the odds even warrant it.

I find that most people new to the game have a hard time passing a race. If the money is not there simply look elsewhere as simulcasting offers many prospects each day....BE SELECTIVE.

[Trotman]

First hand I learned from the best which was Andy Smitts who mentored under Ray Taulbot and first and formost was patience, the taking a win pool down came next. I never had the chance to meet Ray as he passed on in 69 but I met Andy in 1970 and he passed on his time with Ray.

[Stillriledup]

Not handling the mental ups and downs of this game has ruined many a top notch handicapper. You can pick em great, but when it comes to investing hard earned money (and lots of it) at the windows on unpopular opinions is the toughest thing to master.

Handling vicious beats and unwarranted DQs is the hardest thing to get over. As the years go by, you'll get better and better at dealing with the heartbreak, but its definitely something you have to master.

Never get too high when you win and never get to low when you lose as the next opportunity is 20 minutes away.

[Tuffmug]

Winning and an expanding bankroll, for many people, is like Viagra for your ego. It expands your ego till you THINK you are a handicapping GOD! Stop expanding your ego when you win and you will stop those UP/Down cycles.

[Pell Mell]

I've thought about this a lot and would agree with you that mental skills are the absolute dead-centre key to success in this game. We don't need 'more, better, best' analysis tools or wager decision tools - just pick a good one and master it. We need to master ourselves during the often counter-intuitive process of making decisions on imprecise information, in a risk environment where anything can happen in the short-term, over a long-term series of events.

You may find the following link useful: http://sartinmethodology.com/betting-psychology-mind-for-consistent-results

Ted

Thanks for that link. I have been thinking about starting a thread in the hopes of getting an answer to my problem and that article probably answered it as well as anyone could.

I have been playing the same patterns for about 40 yrs and it has withstood the test of time. The problem I've had is that I very often try to separate winning plays from losing plays and many times will eliminate a horse because it just doesn't figure using pace, speed or other handicapping methods. Yet I know from long experience that the most unlikely looking of my plays are the ones that produce the most profit.

As the article states; you may know the pattern works but there is no way of telling which individual bet will win. It's chaos within an orderly process; randomness!

Thanks again......very good info.

[speculus]

I hope you don't think that this is a silly answer...because it is something that it took me years to learn.

The most important quality that a horseplayer can have if he hopes to profit in this game, is discipline. Without discipline...even the best handicapper in the world is flirting with financial disaster.

What is discipline?

It is not easy to say what it is...but it is much easier to state what it isn't.

If you change your system or method every time you hit a losing streak...if you cannot accept a losing day at the track without making desperate efforts in order to get even...if you increase your bets when you are losing...if races that looked unplayable at home, suddenly become playable at the track when you are losing...then you don't have the discipline that we are talking about.

And if you are playing with insignificant money whose loss can easily be chalked up to entertainment...that's fine.

But if you are playing for serious money, and you lack discipline...then you are dead.

You just don't know it yet...
:ThmbUp: :ThmbUp: :ThmbUp:

[TEJAS KIDD]

Here's one statement you may want to tell yourself when you've gone on tilt.

YOU HAVE THE REST OF YOUR LIFE TO GET EVEN FOR THAT LAST RACE (TOUGH BEAT,DQ,BAD TRIP,ETC....), YOU DON'T NEED TO DO IT BY THE END OF THE DAY.

[misscashalot]

Find niches
Break them down one at a time
Niches may be speed or trainer or surface __________(fill in the blanks.)

[Greyfox]

Before the races:
1. do your handicapping
2. layout alternative betting schemes

From then on : "Keep your eyes open and your ears closed."

[bks]

Good comments in this thread. Many thanks for that video, which I'll watch with a beverage this evening.

Then for some reason you seem to go haywire and start betting tons of different wagers. Things not in your "system" because you get the cant lose mentality from all the success.

If you have identified a system that you believe can be successful, and then make bets that are not dictated by it (whether ahead or behind, makes no difference), think about what that means you are doing.

It means you are doing something you yourself recognize to be suboptimal practice. You are now making bets not primarily because they represent the best calculating you can do, but for emotional (or at least less rational) reasons. You are now doing more hoping and less figuring. By your own determination, if these bets are not supported by the 'system' approach you've decided to adopt, then these bets should not be made. Unless of course you feel like you really need the action (but see below).

I keep coming back to: Why are these bets being made? Aren't the system bets enough? Can't you remember (of course you can) that the reason you're ahead is not because you "can't lose", but because you've applied a system well? So why are they made?

Always for emotional reasons. If they're made too often, there's good evidence that there's an emotional problem there. Tellingly, we try to minimize the importance of these habits in ourselves by calling them "leaks" or using other euphemistic language to describe them, when in fact these habits can lead not only to the potential ruination of a good approach to betting the races, but also one's life (if you don't just blow back your winnings but then also lose the mortgage money, for instance).

The successful system player needs to find something else to do for action than betting. If he can't find anything, then I think one has to consider whether one is gambling compulsively.

And Greyfox, the use of the word "You" is not meant to refer to you, obviously, since I don't know you. It's meant as a generic "you" :)

[RaceBookJoe]

Before the races:
1. do your handicapping
2. layout alternative betting schemes

From then on : "Keep your eyes open and your ears closed."

Exactly !!! rbj

[bks]

Double oops. Sorry, Greyfox, you didn't start the thread. Meant teddy.

[teddy]

yes I agree if you bet 6 or 8 hours in a row its very compulsive gambling at many levels. Whether that spills over into my life im not really sure. My gambling time has very little to do with my real world time. Unless it makes me late for something to watch the last race run. haha

[46zilzal]

Before the races:
1. do your handicapping
2. layout alternative betting schemes

From then on : "Keep your eyes open and your ears closed."
that is it in a nutshell

[teddy]

The video was excellent. Depicting betting your method or spot continually with no regard to wins or losses. Beats home the fact that things run in cycles and to take the emotion out of it. A play that is profitable to show and hits at 86% should be bet with the same amount of money.. say $50 and with a substantial bankroll of say 1k should be sufficient to grow significantly without busting out if you don't change the wager amount and or bet other non system wagers. Losing 5 in a row should not change your wager or amount of wager. Just keep the same course.

[Light]

I'm as guilty as anyone in deviating from the path of the straight and narrow. Two weeks ago I decided I wanted action bets and my bankroll tanked. So I decided to bring it back to a healthy state last week. I decided to stick to a spot play I know is profitable and had 6 days in a row of profits which did bring the bankroll back up and more. This spot plays has rules and I just scanned cards from tracks across the country for a play that fit the rules. When there was a borderline play,I passed because I knew there would be many more solid plays popping up.

You would think that we would have learned to just stay on this straight and narrow path after losing so many times when we stray from it, but we still constantly stray. I can only blame myself when I do stray because I know it is a conscious choice of free will and consciously know my ROI will probably suffer.Maybe we look at these "action" bets as the cost of entertainment. But after its done,we aren't so amused because now we have to go back to doing real work again to make up for that cost of "entertainment".

[Light]

In retrospect to what I just said,I think the reason I stray is because the premise of this game is entertainment,not serious work. There are many times when the burden of the straight and narrow is just too confining and lacks relaxation and fun.I don't like to always have to get so serious about earning a positive ROI. So I do blow off some steam with those thoughtless "action" "FUN" bets. Maybe someday a random thoughtless bet will hit for something lottery style. But unfortunately I don't think you can make money in this game consistently without a lot of HARD WORK,which is not my idea of relaxation after working hard in my day job. It's Yin Yang. Pleasure pain. Win lose. Duality.

[teddy]

I spent yesterday talking to a friend about why he lost 2k on sun when he got off his method, got behind , chased and blew his wad on bets he never makes. Trying to catch lightning in a bottle. He agreed he had made this mistake and was going back to the straight and narrow. Well he got behind yesterday , was down, went into the same nose dive, started betting wildly, was down 1500 or more.. but got lucky and hit 3 win bets. I told him his luck would run out and he would blow his last 2k. To go back to small bets and he told me he was behind and their was no way he would have gotten back quickly by staying with his method that scrapes $40 a race. Its the same trap, over and over ...Without disapline there is no way to win....

[46zilzal]

YOU cannot win with scared money....Old adage true as ever.

[jamey1977]

YOU cannot win with scared money....Old adage true as ever.
We all go through this. Be prepared. Do a pre-work study of every race and track you will play for the next day. 4 hours of homework the night before. You now have 6 pages of research notes. It takes work, but this is work. This is serious, serious business. And when the day comes, you are ready. You are to bet official plays only. Meaning plays of your pre-conceived method of operations. No Unofficial Plays. I will never bet an unofficial play, ever again. I say one thing " Do you like fuc----ing losing ? No. I don't. I bet - Official plays only. I know I will win, I never know when. I do not care if I lose . All I care about is if the bet was official or not. Always think like this.

[Robert Fischer]

We all go through this. Be prepared. Do a pre-work study of every race and track you will play for the next day. 4 hours of homework the night before. You now have 6 pages of research notes. It takes work, but this is work. This is serious, serious business. And when the day comes, you are ready. You are to bet official plays only. Meaning plays of your pre-conceived method of operations. No Unofficial Plays. I will never bet an unofficial play, ever again. I say one thing " Do you like fuc----ing losing ? No. I don't. I bet - Official plays only. I know I will win, I never know when. I do not care if I lose . All I care about is if the bet was official or not. Always think like this.

you've got good spirit Jamey1977:cool:
don't ever lose it and keep trying to channel it!

[nalley0710]

I got tired of being caught up in the daily seesaw of winning and losing. I watched an interview of some gangster who said that he blew money and never really cared because hey in that life you'll end up dying in prison or killed anyway. I realized that my mental outlook was all wrong. I was always worried about ending up broke even though I have had a bunch of near death experiences that didnt bother me. I reviewed my life and skills and all the biographies of speculators I've read. I came to this conclusion. My parents and grandparents died of cancer. I have learning disabilities galore and even though I kept my nose to the grindstone in highschool while my brothers and friends were basicly wastrel drug addicts, they have passed me up in mainstram life and try to rub my nose it any chance they get. So I was basicly Fu... ked at birth and likely in the end too. But I do have a keen ability to predict outcomes of events which led me in economic desperation to speculation and I could possibly accumulate and spend a lot of money in the course of my life if I get bolder. So here is what I did. I redefined winning. I research a speculative endeavor (like horseracing). I come up with a game plan and methodology for how I am going to execute (bet) research and testing. A winning day is any day that I deviated 0% from my methodology and plan and a losing day is any day with deviation greater than %0 regardless of whether that horse I skipped won at 60-1 or the horse I won with got disqualified. Because despite my efforts spent in the mainstream (and they were considerable) I ended up fu...ked at birth and in the end and all I can hope for is a good middle. I look at my Roi at the end of the meet. Hopefully its positive. I guess my point is knowing and being honest with yourself so that You develop a mental outlook that gives you the best shot at minimizing your weaknesses and leveraging your strengths is for me the key.

[citygoat]

You don't have to win it all in one day and you don't have to lose it all in one day.There's always tomorrow.

Horse racing is more than a numbers game.
Blood and breath are the major components of this game so when you are referring to your picks by number instead of by name you are overloading yourself and usually your losses.

[xfile]

Good money turns into scared money so fast in this game. You master THAT and you win the game.

[teddy]

I got tired of being caught up in the daily seesaw of winning and losing. I watched an interview of some gangster who said that he blew money and never really cared because hey in that life you'll end up dying in prison or killed anyway. I realized that my mental outlook was all wrong. I was always worried about ending up broke even though I have had a bunch of near death experiences that didnt bother me. I reviewed my life and skills and all the biographies of speculators I've read. I came to this conclusion. My parents and grandparents died of cancer. I have learning disabilities galore and even though I kept my nose to the grindstone in highschool while my brothers and friends were basicly wastrel drug addicts, they have passed me up in mainstram life and try to rub my nose it any chance they get. So I was basicly Fu... ked at birth and likely in the end too. But I do have a keen ability to predict outcomes of events which led me in economic desperation to speculation and I could possibly accumulate and spend a lot of money in the course of my life if I get bolder. So here is what I did. I redefined winning. I research a speculative endeavor (like horseracing). I come up with a game plan and methodology for how I am going to execute (bet) research and testing. A winning day is any day that I deviated 0% from my methodology and plan and a losing day is any day with deviation greater than %0 regardless of whether that horse I skipped won at 60-1 or the horse I won with got disqualified. Because despite my efforts spent in the mainstream (and they were considerable) I ended up fu...ked at birth and in the end and all I can hope for is a good middle. I look at my Roi at the end of the meet. Hopefully its positive. I guess my point is knowing and being honest with yourself so that You develop a mental outlook that gives you the best shot at minimizing your weaknesses and leveraging your strengths is for me the key.


Fascinating post. 0% deviation from my own personal wagering plan would make me a huge winner.... easy to talk about, very hard to do. Probably is the writing on the wall. My method is cut and dry and I can go thru it fairly quickly in 2 hours I think I will have my 20 plays for the day.

My friend took his wad from 3900 to 500...I had him look back on his bets and his deviation to win bets cost him his wad. So hes now back to the drawing board and trying to write down his wagering plan and stick to it this time. Thier is no doubt he will run it back up to 2k or so , I just want to see how long before hes back betting to win when winning $100 a day becomes boring. I have done this myself so I know the saga and scenarios....

I am going to try to use the definition of staying to plan as winning or losing and real winning in $$ is automatic for me.

[raybo]

You don't have to win it all in one day and you don't have to lose it all in one day.There's always tomorrow.

Horse racing is more than a numbers game.
Blood and breath are the major components of this game so when you are referring to your picks by number instead of by name you are overloading yourself and usually your losses.

No disrespect intended, but, I find the opposite to be true. I don't want to know the name of any horse, before I wager. Reason? There are many horses names that contain names or references to truly great horses; Native, Dancer, etc., etc., etc..

I don't want anything like that to have the possibility of influencing my doing my job as a handicapper, least of all, a name. I'd rather let the horse's performances speak for him, not the fact that he may have been named similar to another horse.

The way you get overloaded with numbers is by looking at all the myriad of "screens" produced by so many pieces of software. Use the ones that help you be successful and ignore all the others.

[raybo]

Has anyone heard of good advice to manage the mental game. When you have success with an method and it runs your bankroll to a new high. Then for some reason you seem to go haywire and start betting tons of different wagers. Things not in your "system" because you get the cant lose mentality from all the success. Then you start to lose, get behind , start chasing and blow your bankroll. I have done this 10 times or more and seen friends do the same.

I think its as hard to defeat as the game itself. Please no silly answers like dont go haywire and bet other races out of boredom. We all know thats impossible and we are all guilty of it.

The answer to this problem is obvious, discipline.

Some people have it, but, many more don't.

If you don't have discipline you're doomed in this game. The game is extremely difficult to succeed at, even with discipline. Without it, there is only one direction you're going, down.

You must have processes: handicapping processes, wagering processes, wager tracking processes, etc.. These processes must have strict rules. Sure the rules must contain some room for evolution and adjustment, but, not out of character for the process.

Stick to the rules and you have a chance. Deviate from them and you'll crash and burn.

If you can't set good rules or you can't stick to them, then you better find another game or have money to burn.

[Dick Schmidt]

Couple of random thoughts on betting:

If you are looking for excitement or entertainment at the races, you will lose. You know you are doing it right when racing becomes boring; even tedious. If you are in it for the money, it is a job and should be treated as such. And who loves their job that much? Decide which is the best way to bet by looking at your records and do it for the rest of your life without change. Not fun, but the road to consistent profits. I more or less hated racing but made a living at the track for 19 years.

Use a very rigorous record keeping system, so that each bet is entered in your record book and deviations stand out. I found that Dave Schwartz's "Opponent Method" was a good place for many to start. By the time you do all the math, you are ready to bet and not screw around. Keeps you focused.

Divide your bankroll into sections. One for exactas, one for win bets, one for tris or place or whatever. Bet each in a disciplined manor completely independently of one another using sound money management. Never add any more money to any bankroll. If you do well, then your bets will increase along with your bank and you'll be making money. If you lose the bankroll for any one type of bet, stop betting it for at least a year. You have proved you don't know what you are doing with that bet. Fire the money where you have a history of hitting the target.

Dick

"Run and find out "

...Rikki-Tikki-Tavi

[raybo]

Couple of random thoughts on betting:

If you are looking for excitement or entertainment at the races, you will lose. You know you are doing it right when racing becomes boring; even tedious. If you are in it for the money, it is a job and should be treated as such. And who loves their job that much? Decide which is the best way to bet by looking at your records and do it for the rest of your life without change. Not fun, but the road to consistent profits. I more or less hated racing but made a living at the track for 19 years.

Use a very rigorous record keeping system, so that each bet is entered in your record book and deviations stand out. I found that Dave Schwartz's "Opponent Method" was a good place for many to start. By the time you do all the math, you are ready to bet and not screw around. Keeps you focused.

Divide your bankroll into sections. One for exactas, one for win bets, one for tris or place or whatever. Bet each in a disciplined manor completely independently of one another using sound money management. Never add any more money to any bankroll. If you do well, then your bets will increase along with your bank and you'll be making money. If you lose the bankroll for any one type of bet, stop betting it for at least a year. You have proved you don't know what you are doing with that bet. Fire the money where you have a history of hitting the target.

Dick

"Run and find out "

...Rikki-Tikki-Tavi

Exactly! Playing the ponies, for profit, is a "real" job!

Like you, I don't have any great love for the job.

If you think it's fun and entertaining, then you're probably not going to profit.

[teddy]

Whats that about. Sounds like the matchup thing.

[Overlay]

Whats that about. Sounds like the matchup thing.

Refer to Dave Schwartz's website (http://www.horsestreet.com).

[johnhannibalsmith]

...Maybe we look at these "action" bets as the cost of entertainment...

Sounds like we justify things similarly. Fact is, I enjoy betting the races far too much to handcuff myself with hard-fast policy and as a consequence, I will never be a profitable bettor. Just a guy who does pretty well with some timely hits, but contributes just the same while enjoying the day.

[Rook]

Exactly! Playing the ponies, for profit, is a "real" job!

Like you, I don't have any great love for the job.

If you think it's fun and entertaining, then you're probably not going to profit.
I have to respectfully disagree. If you do find it fun and entertaining you are going to bet every day and as many races as you can handle.

If you have a positive expectation, then you are going to make far more than the guy who hates his job and feels the need to take days and weeks off.

[Trotman]

Handicapping is variables and to win one needs to stick with a plan. The variance in the way I have capped for 40 years has never gone off the rails. I am not into action therefore I am not betting as many races as many. I am not questioning whatever anyone else thinks or does but just saying not for me. To each their own but IMO this game without a plan is bound to confound with no return.

[raybo]

I have to respectfully disagree. If you do find it fun and entertaining you are going to bet every day and as many races as you can handle.

If you have a positive expectation, then you are going to make far more than the guy who hates his job and feels the need to take days and weeks off.

Again, no disrespect meant, but:

A "positive expectation" can have more than one meaning to different players. It can mean that you expect to be successful, even though you haven't really been successful yet, long term, but think you will be. Which means, to me, that your love of the "job" hasn't yet produced long term profit, much less make more than "the guy who hates his job and feels the need to take days and weeks off".

A "positive expectation" can mean that you have already shown a long term profit, with your particular method, playing "every day and as many races as you can handle". In that case, more power to you, but, I've yet to hear of more than a couple doing that in racing (and they are whales, with state of the art software and equipment, that have many employees doing the majority of the "job").

The players, who handicap and wager as many races as they can, every day, and are also successful long term, and also think the job is fun and entertaining, can probably be counted on both hands, nationwide (maybe worldwide).