Final Odds Changes

[SchagFactorToWin]

There is much talk about the final odds changing drastically after betting closes that is caused by the delay in simulcast/ADW money. What I wanted to find out was just how much variance there is. To this end, I conducted a small study. I thought I would share the results.

I looked at 237 races from 3/26/10-9/18/10 at Yonkers. These were all picks chosen by my System and because my wagering guidelines vary with the Pick's odds (no shock there), I kept track of the last odds before betting closed (LOA-last odds available) and the final odds.

Each sample was put into one of 3 groups, based on the LOA: <=2:1, 2.01-4.5, and >4.5:1. The odds ranges were chosen because of the particular wagering guidleines of my System.

1) If a Pick was at or below 2:1 LOA, 97.9% of the time its final odds were at or below 2:1.

2) If a Pick was 2.01-4.5 LOA, 62.7% of the time its final odds stayed in that range.

3) If a Pick was above 4.5:1 LOA, 79.3% of the time its final odds stayed in that range.

I'm not sure if anything can be made of this except that low odds tend to stay low and high odds tend to stay high. Nothing new there but I like to see data that supports common conceptions.

I don't think it would matter if it were harness or flats, though. Rather, a function of pool size. I'm thinking that larger pools have less variance. Maybe others could produce some data for other tracks.

[Turkoman]

Looking closely at your stats, I can say what has been said so many times for years: favorites usually tend to be overbet in the final minute before the race starts. That's why you can see that the other two groups more or less stay the same.

Turkoman

[thaskalos]

You say that if a horse's LOA were 2:1 or under...the horse remained 2-1 or under 97.9% of the time.

That's all well and good...but it tells us nothing about what the horse's final odds were, compared to the LOA.

If the horse's LOA were 2-1...were his final odds 2-1, 3-2, 6-5... what?

These are important distinctions, IMO.

[lamboguy]

i just bet a 7 horse at flamboro for only $10 w-p. his final odds were 2-1, he left out of the gate he was 1/2

another race a horse had final odds of 1-5, the horse broke before the race and went off at 5/2. about $500 evaporated in thin air out of the win pool. those incidences seem to happen quite a bit that i see all over. earlier this year i say $20,000 come out of a show pool in monmouth. i actually called them on that, and the mutual guy said he knew about and asked the outlet where the mistake originated and said it was just a mistake. i asked him where the bet originated and he told me its none of my business. i happen to have a pretty decent idea where it came from because i had heard of those mistakes on prior occaisions, all of which the party that makes the mistakes catch them aproximately 10 seconds after the race comences! i have plenty of mistakes that i make everyday and would love to be able to rectify them.

[horses4courses]

Every bettor's biggest fear when it comes to odds fluctuations while a race is in progress is past posting. Totalisator systems can never be 100% safe when humans control them.

We all know this feeling.
For example, you play a horse at a track with a smallish pool, and see it enter the gate at 2-1 odds. Horse pops the gate and leads by 4.
Things are looking good in this sprint race on a speed-favoring track.
Until this happens.....
After they have gone the first quarter mile, the running order numbers appear on the screen. To your horror, your horse (now leading by 6 and coasting) has dropped from 2-1 to 6-5. There are few more frustrating situations for a bettor when cashing a winner. It's great to win, but you feel that you got screwed.

The vast majority of late odds fluctuations are legitimate.
History tells us, though, that past posting can, and does, happen.
Debates have gone on for years on how to combat the problem.
Tracks don't want to lockout races earlier - anything that might decrease handle is frowned upon.

Seems to me, though, that bettors would get used to races locking out as the first horse enters the gate. It seems the only way to stop the ADW/Satellite late-money vacuum that now exists.
While the earlier shutdown may help to some degree, the threat of past posting cannot be eliminated.

Any thoughts out there?

[thaskalos]

Every bettor's biggest fear when it comes to odds fluctuations while a race is in progress is past posting. Totalisator systems can never be 100% safe when humans control them.

We all know this feeling.
For example, you play a horse at a track with a smallish pool, and see it enter the gate at 2-1 odds. Horse pops the gate and leads by 4.
Things are looking good in this sprint race on a speed-favoring track.
Until this happens.....
After they have gone the first quarter mile, the running order numbers appear on the screen. To your horror, your horse (now leading by 6 and coasting) has dropped from 2-1 to 6-5. There are few more frustrating situations for a bettor when cashing a winner. It's great to win, but you feel that you got screwed.

The vast majority of late odds fluctuations are legitimate.
History tells us, though, that past posting can, and does, happen.
Debates have gone on for years on how to combat the problem.
Tracks don't want to lockout races earlier - anything that might decrease handle is frowned upon.

Seems to me, though, that bettors would get used to races locking out as the first horse enters the gate. It seems the only way to stop the ADW/Satellite late-money vacuum that now exists.
While the earlier shutdown may help to some degree, the threat of past posting cannot be eliminated.

Any thoughts out there?I agree. Unless something is done to solve this problem, the bettors will always suspect the worst.

I recently wagered on a horse at Fort Erie...which entered the starting gate at 10-1 odds.

As my horse was taking his picture at the winner's circle...I discovered that his odds now stood at 9-2.

When I complained to the fellow next to me at the OTB...he - predictably - told me to stop complaining that I was hungry...with a loaf of bread under each arm.

[lamboguy]

shut the pools down 1 minute before the race starts. if someone does pastpost the race with those controls have the guy arrested when he tries to catch his ticket, if he is able to do it from his house have him arrested as well. if the tracks did this they would get at least 50% more in handle within a year. i don't care if they need to stand the horses behind the starting gate a minute before the race starts. they must also constantly monitor the blind pools like they do in new york. the percentage that one loses due to post bell bets and cancels are alot more than any other form of takeout reduction that one could ever dream of. even the hana folks would be happy with that! and not only that if you have an increased handle you can have a decreased takeout that could work

[SchagFactorToWin]

You say that if a horse's LOA were 2:1 or under...the horse remained 2-1 or under 97.9% of the time.

That's all well and good...but it tells us nothing about what the horse's final odds were, compared to the LOA.

If the horse's LOA were 2-1...were his final odds 2-1, 3-2, 6-5... what?

These are important distinctions, IMO.

That was not a goal of this study. I can send you the raw data in Excel format, if you'd like to tinker with it.

Are you saying you would bet at 3:2 but not 6:5? I have trouble with a methodology that would slide odds ranges up that thin.

[46zilzal]

Wagers come through, nationally, 5 major betting hubs. They are encoded at the source and require going through a proprietary (NYRA's is Gold) decoder at the destination, and then, STILL have to be amalgamated into the local pool.

THAT TAKES TIME even today with high speed computers and that is what you are seeing

[thaskalos]

That was not a goal of this study. I can send you the raw data in Excel format, if you'd like to tinker with it.

Are you saying you would bet at 3:2 but not 6:5? I have trouble with a methodology that would slide odds ranges up that thin.No...that was not my point.

It is obvious that it takes a lot more "late" money to move the odds of a favorite, than it would to move a higher priced horse.

I often see the odds of short-priced horses decline during the run of the race...and I was hoping that your study would focus on the extent of the decline.

If a horse starts the race at 2-1 odds, and its odds drop to 6-5 by the time the race is over...that's a drastic decline, but it would go unnoticed in your study.

[Track Collector]

shut the pools down 1 minute before the race starts. if someone does pastpost the race with those controls have the guy arrested when he tries to catch his ticket, if he is able to do it from his house have him arrested as well. if the tracks did this they would get at least 50% more in handle within a year. i don't care if they need to stand the horses behind the starting gate a minute before the race starts. they must also constantly monitor the blind pools like they do in new york. the percentage that one loses due to post bell bets and cancels are alot more than any other form of takeout reduction that one could ever dream of. even the hana folks would be happy with that! and not only that if you have an increased handle you can have a decreased takeout that could work

Wow.....that's a pretty bold statement. That is a lot of money sitting on the sidelines under the perception that past-posting is abundant and common place.

How did you arrive at this (huge) specific percentage? My uninformed opinion would have the percentage to be in the very low single digits AT BEST.

[thaskalos]

Wow.....that's a pretty bold statement. That is a lot of money sitting on the sidelines under the perception that past-posting is abundant and common place.

How did you arrive at this (huge) specific percentage? My uninformed opinion would have the percentage to be in the very low single digits AT BEST.In a game with thin profit margins like horse racing...it doesn't take "abundant and common place" thievery to discourage the serious bettors.

[BlueShoe]

Wagers come through, nationally, 5 major betting hubs. They are encoded at the source and require going through a proprietary (NYRA's is Gold) decoder at the destination, and then, STILL have to be amalgamated into the local pool.

THAT TAKES TIME even today with high speed computers and that is what you are seeing
We are all aware of this, that is not the point. It is which horses make the after the off odds plunge. A very high percentage of the time it is the runner that breaks very alertly and establishes a clear unchallenged early lead. A guy able to past post by only as little as 10 seconds after the break has a huge advantage, that is plenty of time to size up the break and enter a bet, provided the front runner is a legit contender, and not just a pop and stop longshot. Turn this around; how often do we see a sharp late odds drop on a horse that breaks slowly, gets shuffled back, and is pinned down along the rail in the early going? This happens all the time to short priced contenders, but somehow these runners almost never take the late price plunge.

[Track Collector]

In a game with thin profit margins like horse racing...it doesn't take "abundant and common place" thievery to discourage the serious bettors.

Yes, but do you really think the wagering pools would swell by 50% within a year if the likelyhood of past posting were essentially eliminated today?

I simply do not buy the notion that correcting this issue would grow the wagering pools by anything remotely close to 50%. Did I miss some recent report and/or study?

[lamboguy]

if you like after the bell betting, you should take a look at today's 4th race at finger lakes, the 5 horse, cat's playmate leaves the gate at 4-1, unfortunately dennis carr falls off the horse, after the race you have your final odds of 12-1. of course the true odds after the poor rider falls off should 99 infinities-1, but unfortunately there are still guys like myself that are dead ducks who wind up being stuck with their bets.

i will update this board of further circumstances where there are withdrawells of money from parimutual wagering pools that seem to get swept under the rug.

[thaskalos]

if you like after the bell betting, you should take a look at today's 4th race at finger lakes, the 5 horse, cat's playmate leaves the gate at 4-1, unfortunately dennis carr falls off the horse, after the race you have your final odds of 12-1. of course the true odds after the poor rider falls off should 99 infinities-1, but unfortunately there are still guys like myself that are dead ducks who wind up being stuck with their bets.

i will update this board of further circumstances where there are withdrawells of money from parimutual wagering pools that seem to get swept under the rug.Lambo...who were the horses that declined in price during the run of the race...that made this Dennis Carr horse move from 4-1 to 12-1?

Did the odds of the race winner drop suspiciously during the race?

[lamboguy]

Lambo...who were the horses that declined in price during the run of the race...that made this Dennis Carr horse move from 4-1 to 12-1?

Did the odds of the race winner drop suspiciously during the race?i didn't see them because i bet on the horse that lost his rider and i was sick as it was.

[DeanT]

4 horse is the one: 6-1 to 12-1. Post is up on HANA blog. Thanks for the heads up Lambo.

[lamboguy]

4 horse is the one: 6-1 to 12-1. Post is up on HANA blog. Thanks for the heads up Lambo.i am not kidding you i saw 4-1.

you believe me on this one, this game ain't gonna last to much longer with this stuff going on. it is wearing me down already, and i don't think there are that many warriors that are as tough as me!

[DeanT]

i am not kidding you i saw 4-1.

you believe me on this one, this game ain't gonna last to much longer with this stuff going on. it is wearing me down already, and i don't think there are that many warriors that are as tough as me!

I am not saying you did not. Even if you didnt and he was only 6-1; 6-1 to 12-1 and another horse going from 2-1 to even, represents an obvious problem. 4-1, or 6-1, no matter to me, nor it should not matter to anyone. We got problems, big time. When someone caps a 35% chance on the deuce, hammers it, then has a negative expectation bet, your game in the win pools is nothing but folly.

http://blog.horseplayersassociation.org/2010/09/pari-mutuel-puzzles.html

[senortout]

Sooooooooooooo much bs. The odds on every other horse went up exponentially!........sometimes nothing is wrong. How many times have you tried to beat the favorite and decided you could not? This would be the proper thing to do then...either bet the favorite or pass the race. This is a hard lesson to learn though. Some people say go exotics to try to make something of the race. Your choice.

[lamboguy]

Sooooooooooooo much bs. The odds on every other horse went up exponentially!........sometimes nothing is wrong. How many times have you tried to beat the favorite and decided you could not? This would be the proper thing to do then...either bet the favorite or pass the race. This is a hard lesson to learn though. Some people say go exotics to try to make something of the race. Your choice.i'll be sure to take your advice next time.

[senortout]

Here are my wagers this day...I haven't skipped any races, just took em the way they came up. Slept in this am and bet the first two at Kempton, UK on my ipad before I even got outta bed. Did other things today, came back to racing when able, its my sanity release or something.

Note, 5 of these six horses won. I played place and show as you can see.

senortout

[SchagFactorToWin]

If a horse starts the race at 2-1 odds, and its odds drop to 6-5 by the time the race is over...that's a drastic decline, but it would go unnoticed in your study.

I see. But like I said, that wasn't the goal of my study. I was looking specifically for the rate and which horses stay within certain odds ranges, 2:1 and under being one of them. What you're looking for would probably require a larger sample, though.

[SchagFactorToWin]

A very high percentage of the time it is the runner that breaks very alertly and establishes a clear unchallenged early lead. A guy able to past post by only as little as 10 seconds after the break has a huge advantage, that is plenty of time to size up the break and enter a bet, provided the front runner is a legit contender, and not just a pop and stop longshot. Turn this around; how often do we see a sharp late odds drop on a horse that breaks slowly, gets shuffled back, and is pinned down along the rail in the early going? This happens all the time to short priced contenders, but somehow these runners almost never take the late price plunge.

One reason I started this study was to eliminate the use of anecdotal evidence. I know everyone thinks they know, but, especially in gambling, it is too easy to remember events that support one's theory and forget those that disprove it. Unless you are keeping track of when these past postings occur, it is my contention that it is idle speculation.

However, when it is applied to parimutual gambling, I think the more people who use such speculation to determine theirbets, the better (for me)! ;)

[SchagFactorToWin]

if you like after the bell betting, you should take a look at today's 4th race at finger lakes, the 5 horse, cat's playmate leaves the gate at 4-1, unfortunately dennis carr falls off the horse, after the race you have your final odds of 12-1. of course the true odds after the poor rider falls off should 99 infinities-1, but unfortunately there are still guys like myself that are dead ducks who wind up being stuck with their bets.

i will update this board of further circumstances where there are withdrawells of money from parimutual wagering pools that seem to get swept under the rug.

As long as you also update us when it doesn't occur.

[lamboguy]

As long as you also update us when it doesn't occur.i stated before that it does not occur with NYRA, they know it goes on and if an outlet comes in with after the bell they are going to pull the signal from the place that it occurs. why do you think the handle in saratoga only went down 4%? its because they maintain i higher standard than the rest.

[PaceAdvantage]

i stated before that it does not occur with NYRA, they know it goes on and if an outlet comes in with after the bell they are going to pull the signal from the place that it occurs.And you know this how?

[therussmeister]

I am not saying you did not. Even if you didnt and he was only 6-1; 6-1 to 12-1 and another horse going from 2-1 to even, represents an obvious problem. 4-1, or 6-1, no matter to me, nor it should not matter to anyone. We got problems, big time. When someone caps a 35% chance on the deuce, hammers it, then has a negative expectation bet, your game in the win pools is nothing but folly.

http://blog.horseplayersassociation.org/2010/09/pari-mutuel-puzzles.html

Quite frankly, if you ignore the odds and just look at the amount bet on each horse minute-by-minute I don't see an obvious problem. The horse moving from 6-1 to 12-1 had his pool size double (approx.) while the win pool tripled.

[jamey1977]

Quite frankly, if you ignore the odds and just look at the amount bet on each horse minute-by-minute I don't see an obvious problem. The horse moving from 6-1 to 12-1 had his pool size double (approx.) while the win pool tripled.
Frickin Cheating Scum-Bags- Island Sunset - 3 to 1 off. At Fairplex Race 4 - Sep.22, 2010. Takes the lead and goes wire to wire. And of course after the race is over he is 2 to 1 . What the hell is going on ? . If the horse got off to a bad start. His final odds would have been 3 to 1 holding. This crap happens again and again. Who are the cheating scumbags who are doing this ?. This doesn't even happen half and half. 9 times out of 11. The winnning horse is way low after, the race. Only 2 times, they get taken but they do that just not to call attention to themselves. Stop these thieves. I should have gotten 8 dollars back. I am sick of this crap.

[PaceAdvantage]

I am sick of this crap.Stop betting.

[cj]

Stop betting.

In case you haven't noticed, that is exactly what lots of people are doing.

[PaceAdvantage]

In case you haven't noticed, that is exactly what lots of people are doing.It's the most powerful message we can send.

[Charlie D]

It's the most powerful message we can send.



Correct.

[cj]

Correct.

Unfortunately, those that should be listening are deaf.

[thaskalos]

Unfortunately, those that should be listening are deaf.Are you talking about the industry's leaders...or about the bettors who are continuing to play this game?

[cj]

Are you talking about the industry's leaders...or about the bettors who are continuing to play this game?

The "leaders". Bettors have stopped betting or cut back, and not in small amounts.

[thaskalos]

The game's demise is just around the corner...

[Charlie D]

The game's demise is just around the corner...

It'll keep chugging along while slot money is avaliable. It will also keep chugging along while Horseplayers remain "stupid" (Finley) "addicts and idiots" ( Mullins).

[jamey1977]

Stop betting.
I'm stuck here. 2004 - My Plant closed. I sold 2 movie scripts. 1 for 30 thousand, another for 25 thousand in 2005 and 2007 respectively. I have to profit at this damn racetrack venture. My savings isn't gone yet. But this game just stinks. These damn last minute changes are just a nightmare. Someone is screwing around. I bet at final odds when the horses enter the gate. On paper, yeah, I get 48 percent winners at 7 dollars 60 cents average. But real time betting, with all the money moving around. And screwing up all of my research and formulations . My win rate is approx. 40 percent at around 7 dollars and 20 cents. And that's after a great day from about 9 lousy ones. This last minute crap ruins everything. I'll eat the losses. They are the idiots who are the fools. Keep plunging on those 3 to 1's. I hope you plungers lose and you can shove your computer programs too. I wanna take a hammer to your damn computers. Go To Hell. Plungers

[Stillriledup]

shut the pools down 1 minute before the race starts. if someone does pastpost the race with those controls have the guy arrested when he tries to catch his ticket, if he is able to do it from his house have him arrested as well. if the tracks did this they would get at least 50% more in handle within a year. i don't care if they need to stand the horses behind the starting gate a minute before the race starts. they must also constantly monitor the blind pools like they do in new york. the percentage that one loses due to post bell bets and cancels are alot more than any other form of takeout reduction that one could ever dream of. even the hana folks would be happy with that! and not only that if you have an increased handle you can have a decreased takeout that could work

why shut the pools early? That would only hurt people who like to bet late. A better idea would be to find a way to make sure no money comes in after the race starts and don't allow any cancels. Once the race starts, it starts, all bets are in, no refunds.

[Robert Fischer]

To be concise, poorly managed game as a system and on so many individual fronts including Final Odds Changes.

[thaskalos]

why shut the pools early? That would only hurt people who like to bet late. A better idea would be to find a way to make sure no money comes in after the race starts and don't allow any cancels. Once the race starts, it starts, all bets are in, no refunds.Betting late is one thing. Saving huge bets for the last possible second, and creating havoc in the horses' odds is a different thing altogether.

The horseplayer should know the approximate return on his bets...anything less is grossly unfair.

[Track Collector]

I'm stuck here. 2004 - My Plant closed. I sold 2 movie scripts. 1 for 30 thousand, another for 25 thousand in 2005 and 2007 respectively. I have to profit at this damn racetrack venture. My savings isn't gone yet. But this game just stinks. These damn last minute changes are just a nightmare. Someone is screwing around. I bet at final odds when the horses enter the gate. On paper, yeah, I get 48 percent winners at 7 dollars 60 cents average. But real time betting, with all the money moving around. And screwing up all of my research and formulations . My win rate is approx. 40 percent at around 7 dollars and 20 cents. And that's after a great day from about 9 lousy ones. This last minute crap ruins everything. I'll eat the losses. They are the idiots who are the fools. Keep plunging on those 3 to 1's. I hope you plungers lose and you can shove your computer programs too. I wanna take a hammer to your damn computers. Go To Hell. Plungers

Perhaps you need to find a source (other than racing) for your income.

Not sure I understand your math either, because if your overall win rate is approximately 40% and your average $2 return is approximately $ 7.20, you are making a profit which is much better than about 95% of the players. Perhaps your wagering amounts at these rates do not result in enough profits to make a full-time and/or part-time living?

Kind of selfish (and unrealistic) to want others to refrain from wagering on YOUR selection, it is not?

Time to man up, and accept personal responsibility. You can never hope to be a successful handicapper if you do not do so.

(Some situations call for some tough love. ;))

[jamey1977]

Perhaps you need to find a source (other than racing) for your income.

Not sure I understand your math either, because if your overall win rate is approximately 40% and your average $2 return is approximately $ 7.20, you are making a profit which is much better than about 95% of the players. Perhaps your wagering amounts at these rates do not result in enough profits to make a full-time and/or part-time living?

Kind of selfish (and unrealistic) to want others to refrain from wagering on YOUR selection, it is not?

Time to man up, and accept personal responsibility. You can never hope to be a successful handicapper if you do not do so.

(Some situations call for some tough love. ;))
Just frustrating. I have a method that spots overlays. I will not tell anyone. But with the odds changing during the race, this fouls everything up. Just frustrating. I will have to learn to deal with it. But remember everything you research, is the final odds. and when you bet. those are the post time odds. They change so much. Your research results are always going to be altered. Perhaps off 15 to 20 percent. Also add many more losses to your tally .Should most likely add 12 a month. You will win some of the slips. But you will lose too. Because of the odds moving around.

[Nitro]

Frickin Cheating Scum-Bags- Island Sunset - 3 to 1 off. At Fairplex Race 4 - Sep.22, 2010. Takes the lead and goes wire to wire. And of course after the race is over he is 2 to 1 . What the hell is going on ? . If the horse got off to a bad start. His final odds would have been 3 to 1 holding. This crap happens again and again. Who are the cheating scumbags who are doing this ?. This doesn't even happen half and half. 9 times out of 11. The winnning horse is way low after, the race. Only 2 times, they get taken but they do that just not to call attention to themselves. Stop these thieves. I should have gotten 8 dollars back. I am sick of this crap.
I'll tell YOU what's going on! Because obviously you don't have a clue!

Tote Board activities for the 4th race at Fairplex Park, Sept. 22, 2010.
M/L 30 15 5 5/2 10 8/5 8 8
Entry # 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Min to Post
18 55 80 3 9/2 14 1 11 5


15 50 60 3 9/2 13 1 11 5


12 43 60 7/2 5 14 4/5 10 6


10 41 50 4 9/2 14 4/5 10 6


7 47 47 5 5/2 16 1 10 7


5 43 43 5 5/2 16 1 9 7

0 71 83 4 2 17 4/5 18 11
I read all this incredible nonsense and how others actually fell for it. In the meantime no one bothers to question the credibility of these erroneous complaints. Instead others jump in with their words of wisdom of how to solve this “so-called” problem and how it will impact what they term a dying industry. Apparently everyone is out lunch on this one!

You don’t even have be a handicapper to recognize what was going with the betting on 2nd choice on the M/L! This guy is complaining about crooks? Give me break! Even a novice player could see what was happening with the betting in this race! The problem is that 9 times out 10 the only time these betting geniuses even bother to look at board is after the gate opens! Then they’ve got balls to complain about losing 30 cents on the dollar (the #4 actually went off at $2.20/1) after playing a horse that was getting solid action. You might notice that #4 was alread 5/2 by 7 mins to post! What was supposed to happen? The odds go up? (Especially after everyone who might be watching the action decides to jump on the band wagon and send their money in late on an obviously strong play with odds dropping repeatedly into on odds-on money favorite in the race)!!

By the way, when odds on one or more horses goes down, the odds on the others generally go up. So obviously these chronic complainers are either betting the wrong horses or losing their shirts by betting chalk! LOL

[Dave Schwartz]

Nitro,

A very good, and IMHO, accurate, post. :ThmbUp:


There IS past posting, but it is relatively rare and not a lot of money. It is probably still being done by ticket writers cashing tickets. If they were doing it for more than a few hundred here and there, they'd get caught and fired.

It is simply the trend.


Dave

[PaceAdvantage]

Just frustrating. I have a method that spots overlays. I will not tell anyone. But with the odds changing during the race, this fouls everything up. Just frustrating. I will have to learn to deal with it. But remember everything you research, is the final odds. and when you bet. those are the post time odds. They change so much. Your research results are always going to be altered. Perhaps off 15 to 20 percent. Also add many more losses to your tally .Should most likely add 12 a month. You will win some of the slips. But you will lose too. Because of the odds moving around.You write as if this is supposed to be an easy game. It never was and never will be.

Nothing worthwhile ever is...

[riskman]

I'll tell YOU what's going on! Because obviously you don't have a clue!

Tote Board activities for the 4th race at Fairplex Park, Sept. 22, 2010.

By the way, when odds on one or more horses goes down, the odds on the others generally go up. So obviously these chronic complainers are either betting the wrong horses or losing their shirts by betting chalk! LOL

A point well taken. Lots of bitching and moaning.jamey,if you can't take the heat,get out of the kitchen.

[lamboguy]

I'll tell YOU what's going on! Because obviously you don't have a clue!

Tote Board activities for the 4th race at Fairplex Park, Sept. 22, 2010.
M/L 30 15 5 5/2 10 8/5 8 8
Entry # 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Min to Post
18 55 80 3 9/2 14 1 11 5


15 50 60 3 9/2 13 1 11 5


12 43 60 7/2 5 14 4/5 10 6


10 41 50 4 9/2 14 4/5 10 6


7 47 47 5 5/2 16 1 10 7


5 43 43 5 5/2 16 1 9 7

0 71 83 4 2 17 4/5 18 11
I read all this incredible nonsense and how others actually fell for it. In the meantime no one bothers to question the credibility of these erroneous complaints. Instead others jump in with their words of wisdom of how to solve this “so-called” problem and how it will impact what they term a dying industry. Apparently everyone is out lunch on this one!

You don’t even have be a handicapper to recognize what was going with the betting on 2nd choice on the M/L! This guy is complaining about crooks? Give me break! Even a novice player could see what was happening with the betting in this race! The problem is that 9 times out 10 the only time these betting geniuses even bother to look at board is after the gate opens! Then they’ve got balls to complain about losing 30 cents on the dollar (the #4 actually went off at $2.20/1) after playing a horse that was getting solid action. You might notice that #4 was alread 5/2 by 7 mins to post! What was supposed to happen? The odds go up? (Especially after everyone who might be watching the action decides to jump on the band wagon and send their money in late on an obviously strong play with odds dropping repeatedly into on odds-on money favorite in the race)!!

By the way, when odds on one or more horses goes down, the odds on the others generally go up. So obviously these chronic complainers are either betting the wrong horses or losing their shirts by betting chalk! LOLi would love for you to come up with the explanation on how a horse at finger lakes that looks like he should be 3-1. leaves the gate at 4-1, loses his rider and crosses the wire at 12-1. when you have a good answer for that one, you will have some validity in your posts. as far as the finger lakes horse goes there were other people that in pace advantage world that saw the very same thing that i saw!

[RaceBookJoe]

I'll tell YOU what's going on! Because obviously you don't have a clue!

Tote Board activities for the 4th race at Fairplex Park, Sept. 22, 2010.
M/L 30 15 5 5/2 10 8/5 8 8
Entry # 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Min to Post
18 55 80 3 9/2 14 1 11 5


15 50 60 3 9/2 13 1 11 5


12 43 60 7/2 5 14 4/5 10 6


10 41 50 4 9/2 14 4/5 10 6


7 47 47 5 5/2 16 1 10 7


5 43 43 5 5/2 16 1 9 7

0 71 83 4 2 17 4/5 18 11
I read all this incredible nonsense and how others actually fell for it. In the meantime no one bothers to question the credibility of these erroneous complaints. Instead others jump in with their words of wisdom of how to solve this “so-called” problem and how it will impact what they term a dying industry. Apparently everyone is out lunch on this one!

You don’t even have be a handicapper to recognize what was going with the betting on 2nd choice on the M/L! This guy is complaining about crooks? Give me break! Even a novice player could see what was happening with the betting in this race! The problem is that 9 times out 10 the only time these betting geniuses even bother to look at board is after the gate opens! Then they’ve got balls to complain about losing 30 cents on the dollar (the #4 actually went off at $2.20/1) after playing a horse that was getting solid action. You might notice that #4 was alread 5/2 by 7 mins to post! What was supposed to happen? The odds go up? (Especially after everyone who might be watching the action decides to jump on the band wagon and send their money in late on an obviously strong play with odds dropping repeatedly into on odds-on money favorite in the race)!!

By the way, when odds on one or more horses goes down, the odds on the others generally go up. So obviously these chronic complainers are either betting the wrong horses or losing their shirts by betting chalk! LOL

Thanks for that, i love tote-board study. To put a positive spin on this...you can look at it like this...that your horse IS a solid choice and will be a factor in the outcome, at least that is what the "old-time" theory is/was. rbj

[jamey1977]

Thanks for that, i love tote-board study. To put a positive spin on this...you can look at it like this...that your horse IS a solid choice and will be a factor in the outcome, at least that is what the "old-time" theory is/was. rbj
Well I just get ticked off. I have experience and I get mad. How do you think the lesser ones feel.? They feel they are being taken. I've kept track at Fairplex. The late money gets their butt kicked too. They do this on purpose. I will take the odds changes. With the morning line, just common sense the 2nd pick would be bet. But after he takes a 7 length lead.? We all get frustrated. The game is never easy. Yes on paper we can win many but betting at post. With all of the odds changes during the races. Our results and research tally is off by 15 to 25 percent. This game is never easy. Also. just plain screwing up. Being on track looking at some woman with shorts on. We can miss an easy 4 to 1 overlay. This game is always difficult. Where do you get those odds charts at?

[RXB]

I agree. Unless something is done to solve this problem, the bettors will always suspect the worst.

I recently wagered on a horse at Fort Erie...which entered the starting gate at 10-1 odds.

As my horse was taking his picture at the winner's circle...I discovered that his odds now stood at 9-2.

When I complained to the fellow next to me at the OTB...he - predictably - told me to stop complaining that I was hungry...with a loaf of bread under each arm.

This has happened to me three times in the past month at FE. Horses at 9/1, 10/1 and 6/1 ended up 5/1, 7/2 and 5/2 respectively. (They all got tagged late and finished second, curiously.) But so what? I was one of those people betting at the last second, too. People want to bet late; there's nothing wrong with that. I do it. Why shouldn't others?

[RXB]

Well I just get ticked off. I have experience and I get mad. How do you think the lesser ones feel.? They feel they are being taken. I've kept track at Fairplex. The late money gets their butt kicked too. They do this on purpose. I will take the odds changes. With the morning line, just common sense the 2nd pick would be bet. But after he takes a 7 length lead.? We all get frustrated. The game is never easy. Yes on paper we can win many but betting at post. With all of the odds changes during the races. Our results and research tally is off by 15 to 25 percent. This game is never easy. Also. just plain screwing up. Being on track looking at some woman with shorts on. We can miss an easy 4 to 1 overlay. This game is always difficult. Where do you get those odds charts at?

Are you stoned? I have no idea what this post is supposed to be about. Seriously.

[Nitro]

i would love for you to come up with the explanation on how a horse at finger lakes that looks like he should be 3-1. leaves the gate at 4-1, loses his rider and crosses the wire at 12-1. when you have a good answer for that one, you will have some validity in your posts. as far as the finger lakes horse goes there were other people that in pace advantage world that saw the very same thing that i saw! I would love to give you the answer for this apparent tote abnormality, but I gave up playing Finger Lakes a long time ago. It’s unfortunate that you can’t recognize a credible post when you see it. Like I’ve nothing better to do with my time then post bogus information. A good friend of mine maintains a data base of tote data going back over 6 years for about 50 tracks. I don’t question the validity or accuracy of that information because its REAL time data which I have personally confirmed and used.
But go ahead believe Jamey’s original post if you wish. I could really care less!


Thanks for that, i love tote-board study. To put a positive spin on this...you can look at it like this...that your horse IS a solid choice and will be a factor in the outcome, at least that is what the "old-time" theory is/was. rbj You’re most welcome! By the way that “old-time” theory is NOT a theory at all and it’s as alive and well today as it ever was! Believe me!

[lamboguy]

I would love to give you the answer for this apparent tote abnormality, but I gave up playing Finger Lakes a long time ago. It’s unfortunate that you can’t recognize a credible post when you see it. Like I’ve nothing better to do with my time then post bogus information. A good friend of mine maintains a data base of tote data going back over 6 years for about 50 tracks. I don’t question the validity or accuracy of that information because its REAL time data which I have personally confirmed and used.
But go ahead believe Jamey’s original post if you wish. I could really care less!

You’re most welcome! By the way that “old-time” theory is NOT a theory at all and it’s as alive and well today as it ever was! Believe me!i pointed out a race where the horse should have been a legit 2nd choice in a full field, the horse leaves the gate at 4-1, the rider falls off and now the horse crosses the wire at 12-1. you want to tell me that you have some genius in cyberland that does tote analysis and how i am crying sour grapes. i think you should and your friend should take a lesson in common sense before you post about this rediculous tote board analysis again.

[Nitro]

i pointed out a race where the horse should have been a legit 2nd choice in a full field, the horse leaves the gate at 4-1, the rider falls off and now the horse crosses the wire at 12-1. you want to tell me that you have some genius in cyberland that does tote analysis and how i am crying sour grapes. i think you should and your friend should take a lesson in common sense before you post about this rediculous tote board analysis again.I could really care less about what you pointed out. As far as I’m concerned it’s either a figment of your imagination or just a tote aberration at best.

No! What I’m telling you is I can’t offer an explanation for what you saw or imagined because the tote data isn’t available at least from my source. But now that you mention it, it does sound like you’ve got real hang up about it. Why not just get over it and move on?

What I posted was not a tote analysis by any stretch of the imagination. It was simply the changing odds for a typical betting cycle. In case you missed the point, it was posted to expose some erroneous statements made about a wining entry that happened to be getting a lot more support from 10 min. to post to post time, then was previously stated.

I appreciate your concerns about my mental well-being, but please don’t presume that you of all people could offer me any lessons in common sense about how to use the tote board or its value. Its skeptics like yourself who apparently have their heads in the sand when it comes to topics that are probably a bit over your head. But please don’t let that bother you too!

[Nitro]

And by the way! You want some “common sense”? Well how about this wake up call?

The betting closes lets say when the horses are in the gate and bell goes off. Now how much time does it take to accumulate all the monies from all the betting locations both on track on off? In most cases it’s about 60 seconds! A 6 furlong race is run on average about 1 min. & 12 sec (72 sec) give or take. So how far have the horses already traveled in 60 sec. by the time you notice the final pool totals and odds? It certainly doesn’t take a rocket scientist to see how all of these complaints are ill conceived. And if they actually totaled up 12 secs later when they reached the finish line? So what!

[thaskalos]

And by the way! You want some “common sense”? Well how about this wake up call?

The betting closes lets say when the horses are in the gate and bell goes off. Now how much time does it take to accumulate all the monies from all the betting locations both on track on off? In most cases it’s about 60 seconds! A 6 furlong race is run on average about 1 min. & 12 sec (72 sec) give or take. So how far have the horses already traveled in 60 sec. by the time you notice the final pool totals and odds? It certainly doesn’t take a rocket scientist to see how all of these complaints are ill conceived. And if they actually totaled up 12 secs later when they reached the finish line? So what!Nitro...I understand the point you are trying to make, but I would like to ask you a question.

When it was revealed that past-post betting incidents had, in fact, repeatedly taken place in this game...weren't you surprised? I know I was.

And the fact that this happend more than once, in this day and age, is ridiculous, IMO. We all knew that the computer systems used in handling these bets were not exactly "state of the art"...but nobody thought that it would be possible for someone to bet a pick-6 after the races were over.

But people did...and they did it in the Breeders Cup...horse racing's "shining moment".

Since the integrity of the betting pools have been compromised to such an extent in the past...how can we convince people that it is not still going on?

[jamey1977]

Nitro...I understand the point you are trying to make, but I would like to ask you a question.

When it was revealed that past-post betting incidents had, in fact, repeatedly taken place in this game...weren't you surprised? I know I was.

And the fact that this happend more than once, in this day and age, is ridiculous, IMO. We all knew that the computer systems used in handling these bets were not exactly "state of the art"...but nobody thought that it would be possible for someone to bet a pick-6 after the races were over.

But people did...and they did it in the Breeders Cup...horse racing's "shining moment".

Since the integrity of the betting pools have been compromised to such an extent in the past...how can we convince people that it is not still going on?
There have been cheaters forever. The Breeders Cup fiasco proves it. But I did watch a horse go wire to wire up at Golden Gate Fields today. The odds stayed at 3 to 1 the whole time. Unchanged. We are always going to watch everything and damn right we will complain too. Where the heck do we get that full board analysis cards at from 15 minutes to post all the way to post time ?

[Nitro]

Nitro...I understand the point you are trying to make, but I would like to ask you a question.

When it was revealed that past-post betting incidents had, in fact, repeatedly taken place in this game...weren't you surprised? I know I was.

And the fact that this happend more than once, in this day and age, is ridiculous, IMO. We all knew that the computer systems used in handling these bets were not exactly "state of the art"...but nobody thought that it would be possible for someone to bet a pick-6 after the races were over.

But people did...and they did it in the Breeders Cup...horse racing's "shining moment".

Since the integrity of the betting pools have been compromised to such an extent in the past...how can we convince people that it is not still going on?Well I wasn’t surprised in the least! This game is based on money and greed just as many other well know activities (like the stock market). Let’s face it there are those in nearly every walk of life that will attempt to take advantage of others, especially when it involves money. (Watch that program "American Greed" a few times and you'll see what I mean)

However, in the case you mentioned about the breeder’s cup, that little group had direct access to creating tickets, and it wasn’t the first time they pulled off that scheme, but sure was their last. Keep in mind too that it occurred over a period of races, and not a single race. There aren’t too many people that have that kind of direct access. I don’t know about anyone else, but I’m satisfied with what’s in place for monitoring unusual betting activities right now. But hey that was yesterday. Today someone else could surely come up with another scheme I’m sure. As soon as they get greedy they’ll be caught too.

[senortout]

I think I know what has made odds-drops-after-the-gate-opens seem more noticeable now than ever!

Consider conditional wagering, now offered at TwinSpires and I imagine, most of the other Internet wagering sites.....what's the rule...you make your bet conditional which only means, at a set time before the bell rings if the bet meets your odds requirements, the bet is made. You should be good to go right and you are happy as hell. But of course, your bet and thousands of others just released,,,,,,flood into those pools and if you have any kind of a visible, obvious standout or standout contender at a fairer price even, those odds just went to he'll and back, because you used the very device which was designed to give you a false sense of security in the first place....reason it out, it only makes sense now that you think about it right? try not to use conditional wagering, it really won't help you in the majority of cases. (maybe it would help you if your bet was in the vicinity of ten or fifteen to one, but of course you usually like to see those drop a bit, it's a sign a few others in the crowd have noticed what you noticed, are we thinking along the same lines now?) I bet Nicanor yesterday, think his odds dropped a few points, no biggie I expected lower odds. I can't accurately tell you what the odds ended up but say they were 8 to 1 when I bet him. Had my bet been conditional for 8 to 1 I would have missed out. Think he closed a bit less maybe wrong on these figures. so what good is it.....

[lamboguy]

And by the way! You want some “common sense”? Well how about this wake up call?

The betting closes lets say when the horses are in the gate and bell goes off. Now how much time does it take to accumulate all the monies from all the betting locations both on track on off? In most cases it’s about 60 seconds! A 6 furlong race is run on average about 1 min. & 12 sec (72 sec) give or take. So how far have the horses already traveled in 60 sec. by the time you notice the final pool totals and odds? It certainly doesn’t take a rocket scientist to see how all of these complaints are ill conceived. And if they actually totaled up 12 secs later when they reached the finish line? So what!now you are barking up the very wrong tree, it takes miliseconds to calculate the wagers and total them up. some totes can be delayed as far as the transmission of data is concerned and that is where your thesis is 100% wrong. when i worked for tote in a racetrack years ago the transmission of data was done thru phone lines and often times when the transmission was done there were multiple outlets coming in at the same time, and depending upon how advanced the system was at the race track the capabilites of the system could not accomodate all the transmissions hitting them at the same time and the transmitter would have to re-dial the number for a connection. during that period of time the transmitter could possibly remain open to a computer terminal so a wager could possibly be alterered, changed or removed. that sir is the ineficiencies of the system where wagers go thru hubs and are well known in the industry. the only protection that the system employs on these circumstances is that the times of the bets are recorded. that is how the pick 6 players got caught. in a nutshell what i am trying to say is that if the transmitter does not allow any terminal to remain open there is no problem, if they do then an after the bell bet can and often does occur. not having worked for over 10 year now, i suspect that the transmissions must be done over the internet, but unless the host systems have been updated the same problems can still occur and from what i understand the cost to revamp the whole system cost muti-millions to do.

[fmolf]

this is the one thing the nyra does well.They are quite vigilant in policing their pools as you do not see very many suspicious late drops.This could also be a factor of their having larger pools as well.I have not personally seen an instance where monies have disappeared from the pool after a horse broke poorly or a rider fell off at the gate.I am not saying it does not happen in new york just that i have not noticed it.I think betting at the outlets should be halted 60 sec. before the bell (approx)and at the bell at the track.Perhaps serious bettorswouldreturn to the track if this advantage were offered.

[Robert Goren]

No matter when you set the cutoff time, there is always going be a lot of money bet at last possible second. What I don't understand is why win pool odds are not always being updated instead of every minute or so. We have had the technology to do that for years.

[misscashalot]

No matter when you set the cutoff time, there is always going be a lot of money bet at last possible second.

Yes, but at the larger handle tracks the proportion of last second $ entering the total pool doesn't change the odds that often.

What I don't understand is why win pool odds are not always being updated instead of every minute or so. We have had the technology to do that for years.

I'm a board watcher. If odds changed with each passing bet my eye balls would be spinning like lemons in a slot machine. The brain, mine at least needs some lag time to absorb and process the $ change, granted every 60 seconds in much too long a drag, maybe every 15 seconds will do nicely.



.

[fmolf]

.
hope you had Motts' horse in the ninth yesterday.Opened at its morning line...was the favorite early on in the wagering and drifted upwards as post time approached.Went off at 4/1....

[misscashalot]

hope you had Motts' horse in the ninth yesterday.Opened at its morning line...was the favorite early on in the wagering and drifted upwards as post time approached.Went off at 4/1....


As it comes time to decide who and if I'm betting a race, I don't watch odds, I watch money flow. The diff btwn odds and $ flow? It's like looking at a pretty woman in a mink coat. You can only imagine what her bod is like, but until she sheds the coat you really don't know. Odds are the coat and masks what really happening but $ flow is the real deal as far as what's going on. So when you guys talk about one particular race to make a point....it's meaningless. remember you can't beat a race but you can beat the races. That's why no sane person bets the farm on one race. There's not enough posting here on roi, strike rate and comfort level. Those elements are the key to success in knowing how to profit consistently.

[fmolf]

As it comes time to decide who and if I'm betting a race, I don't watch odds, I watch money flow. The diff btwn odds and $ flow? It's like looking at a pretty woman in a mink coat. You can only imagine what her bod is like, but until she sheds the coat you really don't know. Odds are the coat and masks what really happening but $ flow is the real deal as far as what's going on. So when you guys talk about one particular race to make a point....it's meaningless. remember you can't beat a race but you can beat the races. That's why no sane person bets the farm on one race. There's not enough posting here on roi, strike rate and comfort level. Those elements are the key to success in knowing how to profit consistently.
when a horse odds drops a significant amt. in the second or third click of the betting you can be assured some serious money has come down on him/her.

[RaceBookJoe]

when a horse odds drops a significant amt. in the second or third click of the betting you can be assured some serious money has come down on him/her.

When i used to follow each flash of the odds, the above became more interesting if after that drop, that the odds then went up in the next few flashes...ie 8-1 down to 3-1 then back up to at least 6-1. I term i learned to use on this was a " v-pattern ". If the odds dropped from 8-1 to 3-1 and stayed there, i figured that either the ML was way off, or the public was jumping on this horse...but i was doing this in the days before simulcast, and most money was being bet on track. rbj

[therussmeister]

this is the one thing the nyra does well.They are quite vigilant in policing their pools as you do not see very many suspicious late drops.This could also be a factor of their having larger pools as well.I have not personally seen an instance where monies have disappeared from the pool after a horse broke poorly or a rider fell off at the gate.I am not saying it does not happen in new york just that i have not noticed it.I think betting at the outlets should be halted 60 sec. before the bell (approx)and at the bell at the track.Perhaps serious bettorswouldreturn to the track if this advantage were offered.
Or it could be the on-track betters at NYRA are as smart, or smarter as the simulcast betters, whereas at Finger Lakes et al. the simulcast crowd has a much different, and more accurate opinion than the on-track crowd.

[therussmeister]

Just frustrating. I have a method that spots overlays. I will not tell anyone. But with the odds changing during the race, this fouls everything up. Just frustrating. I will have to learn to deal with it. But remember everything you research, is the final odds. and when you bet. those are the post time odds. They change so much. Your research results are always going to be altered. Perhaps off 15 to 20 percent. Also add many more losses to your tally .Should most likely add 12 a month. You will win some of the slips. But you will lose too. Because of the odds moving around.
You don't have to tell anyone, they already know. Whilst you are placing your bet thinking, "Wow, I can't believe they are letting this horse go off at 6-1," there are hundreds of people around the country thinking, "Wow, I can't believe they are letting this horse go off at 6-1." So it doesn't.

I contend that this is a problem mainly for people whose handicapping methodology is not unique enough.

[Stillriledup]

Big bettors become big bettors because they're great at betting, handicapping and knowing lots about math, percentages and the odds. They know that a certain sized bet into a certain sized pool will make an 8-1 shot go down to 5-1. Why then, would they make such a large wager if they were indeed making that wager BEFORE the gate actually opens? They wouldnt. This is damning evidence that these large bets are coming in after the gates open, large players who know what they are doing aren't going to take 5-1 on an 8-1 shot by betting all their money into the smaller win pool.

[Dave Schwartz]

Big bettors become big bettors because they're great at betting, handicapping and knowing lots about math, percentages and the odds

While that is true for whales I do not find that it has to be true for all the big bettors. Some of the worst players I have ever known bet many hundreds of dollars per race.

[Nitro]

Big bettors become big bettors because they're great at betting, handicapping and knowing lots about math, percentages and the odds. They know that a certain sized bet into a certain sized pool will make an 8-1 shot go down to 5-1. Why then, would they make such a large wager if they were indeed making that wager BEFORE the gate actually opens? They wouldnt. This is damning evidence that these large bets are coming in after the gates open, large players who know what they are doing aren't going to take 5-1 on an 8-1 shot by betting all their money into the smaller win pool.I'd like to know where you dream up this crap!

Does everyone around here speak for everyone else or do they have minds of their own? I could go into alot of detail and refute every comment in your paragraph, but since you don't understand the basics of betting psycology particularly when it comes to betting large amounts of money then I'm afraid even a sober explantion won't relieve you of your paranoia.

Do me and maybe a few others here a favor. Take your BIG $2 dollars and let us know where, when and how you were able to place that large wager after the gates opened. And as far as I'm concerned, if you can't document it properly any hearsay is about as valid as your original comment.

[lamboguy]

While that is true for whales I do not find that it has to be true for all the big bettors. Some of the worst players I have ever known bet many hundreds of dollars per race.a matter of fact, some of the best bettors i have ever met in my life were very small ones.

[judd]

a matter of fact, some of the best bettors i have ever met in my life were very small ones.
yea but whers the thrill of victory

[therussmeister]

Big bettors become big bettors because they're great at betting, handicapping and knowing lots about math, percentages and the odds. They know that a certain sized bet into a certain sized pool will make an 8-1 shot go down to 5-1. Why then, would they make such a large wager if they were indeed making that wager BEFORE the gate actually opens? They wouldnt. This is damning evidence that these large bets are coming in after the gates open, large players who know what they are doing aren't going to take 5-1 on an 8-1 shot by betting all their money into the smaller win pool.
Maybe it's just me, but I can't follow the logic of this post. Plus, I don't know why you assume the action is coming from one big bettor rather than a hundred small and medium size bettors. I guess you might think that the people that bet in the last minute have the same handicapping opinion as the people betting in the previous 20 minutes, but I see no reason to assume that. Indeed, even before simulcasting it seemed to me that the people that bet in the final minute have, as a group, a different decision making methodology than the rest of the crowd, and thus often preferred a different horse.

[Fastracehorse]

............to me is that cheating goes on in this game everyday at every racetrack in North America.

This thread is noting instances at something that is visually available.

Some of you aren't going to like what I am saying but I watch alot of favorites burnt everyday.

It is a very strong part of the game and should be handicapped - if you really like an odds-on you have to worry that it may not win - and not because it's not good enough.

I see favorites paraded like their monsters to add comfort to the punter - just to be shot down in flames.

When you watch a horse race, and they are going fast and they are strung out, and the best horse is out of it early, it really appears as if he's not good enough, even when he is; I realize there are situations where the fave is vulnerable or a poor choice - there are lots of those too.

So my point is, this thread is arguing the validity of the poster's rants - it's almost like it is distracting us from the fact that cheating is just a 'matter of fact' in this game - no, not every race - not even most races - but often the races with the most likely favorite are dangerous to the favorite player.

That means you have to be careful when you make your selections - and if you thinks it's too good to be true - it may not be - but the results may say different.

If you think I have definitive proof of this - I don't - it's all anecdotal.

And yes, money can be made at this game, the cheating aspect is like an angle, like blinkers off.

fffastt

[Show Me the Wire]

It is a common practice. I have seen it with my own eyes. The large bettor tells the pari-mutuel clerk the amount of the bet and has the clerk delay pushing the button until the horses are sent on their way. if the horse breaks well the wager is finalized, if not the bettor instructs the clerk to hit the cancel button.

This method works where the pari-mutuel has the option to cancel a bet within 20 seconds of the start of the race. It is very easy to have a clerk assist you in this manner. All you have to do is tip him sufficiently.