Ray2000
09-16-2010, 11:02 AM
This is an updated version of a SpreadSheet that I posted in T-bred section a while ago. I've been having some fun with it lately (and success) so I'll post it in Harness thread and note it in Tbred. Works best with smaller pools. It only works with TwinSpires ADW and probably with their SuperTote, but since the merger between Youbet and Spires is coming I won't be doing one for Youbet.
What does it do?
1. It imports WPS pools and Exacta probables and refreshes at the click of a mouse. (That's nothing new)
2. It shows minimum acceptable Exacta pays by the Harville method. See
http://libra.acadiau.ca/library/ASAC/v26/02/26_02_p032.pdf
3. It shows any strange disparity between Win - Place and/or Win - Show pools, (bridge jumper alert).
4. It compares current Win Odds with Win Odds based on Exacta key money. This is what the odds would be if all the money bet using a horse on top in the Exacta was put in a win pool. Often barn money comes in this way, Exacta part wheels, to disguise the bet and not drop the odds in the win pool.
Requirements
Excel 2003 or later
a twinspires account, might work with super tote not sure
some patience
How to use it.
If your computer is using trusted folders download to a trusted folder
Make a copy of this file before using it
This SS uses a macro that can be seen with the VBA editor, nothing is hidden
SS has 2 connections info (query table) as a part of the workbook that can be edited
The help sheet will guide you thru editing the query and getting connected.
You don't have to be connected with your browser unless you want to bet at Twin. You cannot bet from this SS.
Wether or not you're connected to Twin with a browser, you will have to log on with the SS the first time it's used. If you close the sheet and reopen then you will need to logon with the sheet again. No passwords are saved.
Aside from editing the pools query, the only changes you can make is to the table of tracks along with the track code, type number, win and exacta takeouts. Works with all tracks Harness and Tbred, but since I play only harness, the table is incomplete. Even some Harness tracks data needs to be updated, see help file on how.
Many will say it's worthless, the Odds change too much in the last minute to mean anything or do anything but I'm not so sure. I use it as "Check it out and follow this one" approach to watch the board. (It also helps with the boredom between races:sleeping:). Of course the whole sheet is based on the idea that there is such a thing as smart money, but that's a discussion for a different day.:)
Let me know if you have problems..I'll try to help.
The attached screen shot.
...4 quadrants
Upper Left Q reproduces the Exacta probables you can see when you're normally logged on.
Lower left Q has WPS amounts and current Win Odds, same as browser
below that row there is a new set of odds showing what the odds would be if the money
bet on the horse in the exacta pool was used for setting the win pool odds
To the right of this new set of 'whatif' odds in Q4 is a row of numbers showing strangeness between the two Win Odds method. ratios < .5 or >1.5 are shown, others hidden
In upper right quadrant is a table of Harville exacta minimum acceptable odds, in red if the current probable is below this minimum, in blue if the current probable is greater than acceptable. You can blank out the longshots with the minimum odds setting to make the table easier to read.
Below this table in the lower right Q is a row showing oddities between win pool amounts vs place and show. the 3 "???" means there is a strange disparity on how the money is coming in these 3 pools and a glance at the WPS pools for any "???" horse may point to a good place or show bet or possible a bridge jumper if the show pool is overloaded.
What does it do?
1. It imports WPS pools and Exacta probables and refreshes at the click of a mouse. (That's nothing new)
2. It shows minimum acceptable Exacta pays by the Harville method. See
http://libra.acadiau.ca/library/ASAC/v26/02/26_02_p032.pdf
3. It shows any strange disparity between Win - Place and/or Win - Show pools, (bridge jumper alert).
4. It compares current Win Odds with Win Odds based on Exacta key money. This is what the odds would be if all the money bet using a horse on top in the Exacta was put in a win pool. Often barn money comes in this way, Exacta part wheels, to disguise the bet and not drop the odds in the win pool.
Requirements
Excel 2003 or later
a twinspires account, might work with super tote not sure
some patience
How to use it.
If your computer is using trusted folders download to a trusted folder
Make a copy of this file before using it
This SS uses a macro that can be seen with the VBA editor, nothing is hidden
SS has 2 connections info (query table) as a part of the workbook that can be edited
The help sheet will guide you thru editing the query and getting connected.
You don't have to be connected with your browser unless you want to bet at Twin. You cannot bet from this SS.
Wether or not you're connected to Twin with a browser, you will have to log on with the SS the first time it's used. If you close the sheet and reopen then you will need to logon with the sheet again. No passwords are saved.
Aside from editing the pools query, the only changes you can make is to the table of tracks along with the track code, type number, win and exacta takeouts. Works with all tracks Harness and Tbred, but since I play only harness, the table is incomplete. Even some Harness tracks data needs to be updated, see help file on how.
Many will say it's worthless, the Odds change too much in the last minute to mean anything or do anything but I'm not so sure. I use it as "Check it out and follow this one" approach to watch the board. (It also helps with the boredom between races:sleeping:). Of course the whole sheet is based on the idea that there is such a thing as smart money, but that's a discussion for a different day.:)
Let me know if you have problems..I'll try to help.
The attached screen shot.
...4 quadrants
Upper Left Q reproduces the Exacta probables you can see when you're normally logged on.
Lower left Q has WPS amounts and current Win Odds, same as browser
below that row there is a new set of odds showing what the odds would be if the money
bet on the horse in the exacta pool was used for setting the win pool odds
To the right of this new set of 'whatif' odds in Q4 is a row of numbers showing strangeness between the two Win Odds method. ratios < .5 or >1.5 are shown, others hidden
In upper right quadrant is a table of Harville exacta minimum acceptable odds, in red if the current probable is below this minimum, in blue if the current probable is greater than acceptable. You can blank out the longshots with the minimum odds setting to make the table easier to read.
Below this table in the lower right Q is a row showing oddities between win pool amounts vs place and show. the 3 "???" means there is a strange disparity on how the money is coming in these 3 pools and a glance at the WPS pools for any "???" horse may point to a good place or show bet or possible a bridge jumper if the show pool is overloaded.