Blind Luck Could Face Off Against Zenyatta In Lady's Secret

[andymays]

http://www.paulickreport.com/blog/blind-luck-could-face-off-against-zenyatta-in-ladys-secret/

Excerpt:

But it’s no sure thing. "We’re also going to nominate Blind Luck to the Cotillion at Philadelphia Park the same day," said Ward.

[andymays]

I'd like to see that race. :ThmbUp:

Blind Luck is a serious filly.

[andymays]

The HYPE from Oprah and the Huffington Post.

Zenyatta - O Magazine 2010 Power List - Oprah.com

http://www.oprah.com/world/The-2010-O-Power-List/20

Excerpt:

She could well be the world's most invincible athlete


Liz O'Connell: She is Simply... Zenyatta

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/liz-o/zenyatta_b_715478.html

[PhantomOnTour]

Won't happen.

[classhandicapper]

It would be a good race, but I doubt Blind Luck runs in that spot.

[gm10]

That would be some race ... Blind Luck is really good imo

[horses4courses]

Camp Zenyatta won't be changing their plans to run whether, or not, Blind Luck goes to post in this one. Or would they?

I, for one, would be sorely disappointed if Z suddenly didn't seem to be 100%, and they decide to train her up to the BCC. Chalk one up for the conspiracy theorists in that scenario.

Blind Luck v Zenyatta sure has a nice ring to it....... :cool:

[born2ride]

Interesting. Blind Luck is better on dirt than synthetics, but in the Lady's Secret she'd be toting far less weight than Zenyatta. Plus it means less shipping before the BC. Do you go with giving weight to Havre de Grace on your favorite surface or receiving weight and stay at home to run on a less favored surface?

[Fingal]

Taking on Zenyatta on her home track for a 250K purse vs. taking a plane ride & going for 750K ? She's already shown that she likes to ship.

[slew101]

Exactly. Never going to happen.

Taking on Zenyatta on her home track for a 250K purse vs. taking a plane ride & going for 750K ? She's already shown that she likes to ship.

[joanied]

When I frist saw the headline...I got excited over the prospect...indeed, Blind Luck is a hell of a race horse, and you just gotta love her...if she does go in the LS, I seriously doubt they'd find an excuse to scratch Zenyatta...her works have been awesome, just what sort of excuse could they come up with...and why would they...even giving weight, Zenyatta would simply over power Blind Luck in deep stretch, IMHO. They'd certainly finish 1, 2.
But, since Blind Luck seems to be a great shipper...doesn't bother her at all, wouldn't it be the better move to go to the Cotillion and pick up a nice fat purse!!

[classhandicapper]

....if she does go in the LS, I seriously doubt they'd find an excuse to scratch Zenyatta...her works have been awesome, just what sort of excuse could they come up with...and why would they...even giving weight, Zenyatta would simply over power Blind Luck in deep stretch, IMHO.

Yea, I'd make Zenyatta a huge favorite over Blind Luck even though I admire the latter also. Blind Luck has already failed to overcome a few extremely slow paced synthetic races against lesser horses of the type that Zenyatta has routinely won (sometimes for fun) against better. It would still be a fun race to watch and put another big name horse on her resume.

[joanied]

Yea, I'd make Zenyatta a huge favorite over Blind Luck even though I admire the latter also. Blind Luck has already failed to overcome a few extremely slow paced synthetic races against lesser horses than the type that Zenyatta routinely wins (sometimes for fun). It would still be a fun race to watch and put another big name horse on her resume.

Totally agree. Now, watch someone take your last sentence and add something like..."what big name horse has Zenyatta beaten" :bang:

[Phantombridgejumpe]

even $750K on the condition that both run?

[joanied]

even $750K on the condition that both run?

Maybe another track would, could...but I seriously doubt they have the available funds to do that...it's a good idea, but no way they find the extra money...

[DeanT]

even $750K on the condition that both run?

I wonder why they would. From an ROI perspective, Zenyatta with or without Blind Luck, would garner tens of thousands coming through the turnstyles, and eyes on the race over the net. If you up the purse $500k or something, there is very little change in viewership, or betting.

IMO.

[BluegrassProf]

Blind Luck has already failed to overcome a few extremely slow paced synthetic races against lesser horses than the type that Zenyatta routinely wins. ... It would still be...another big name horse on her resume.See, this drives me nuts. :bang:

Silly little things like surface be damned: it's "another big name," and that's what matters.

headdesk.

[The_Knight_Sky]

Maybe another track would, could...but I seriously doubt they have the available funds to do that...it's a good idea,
but no way they find the extra money...





It's okay. California bill 1083b http://i51.tinypic.com/2vjopwo.gif is in the works in Sacramento.

Will raise WPS takeouts to 30.68% to pick up revenue from the customers
precisely for these kind of matchups. Such geniuses over there. ;)

[SharpCat]

Yea, I'd make Zenyatta a huge favorite over Blind Luck even though I admire the latter also. Blind Luck has already failed to overcome a few extremely slow paced synthetic races against lesser horses of the type that Zenyatta has routinely won (sometimes for fun) against better. It would still be a fun race to watch and put another big name horse on her resume.


I have to agree completely. I think the key is the size difference between Zenyatt and Blind Luck. Zenyatta is much bigger than Blind Luck and has a much longer stride. Zenyatta is able make up a significant amount of ground into the quickest part of the race, she then fires a fast final 1/8th to finish the race. Bling Luck is not able to make up as much ground during the same part of the race and has does not fire a fast final 1/8th. In those slow paced races you need to fire a fast final 1/8th because the speed is not slowing down as much. Blind Luck is just better suited to dirts tracks.

[classhandicapper]

See, this drives me nuts. :bang:

Silly little things like surface be damned: it's "another big name," and that's what matters.

headdesk.

It shouldn't drive you nuts.

Blind Luck was one of the leading 3YO fillies in the country based one her SYNTHETIC FORM before she even tried dirt. The perception is that she's way better on dirt because most handicappers are so geared towards speed figures, winning margins, and don't understand synthetic racing at all. But she was an improving filly before she switched to dirt and her losses on synthetic were mostly related to extremely slow paces.

I think any horse that beats her on either dirt or synthetic is beating a very good horse in both name and ability.

[Dahoss9698]

The perception is that she's way better on dirt because most handicappers are so geared towards speed figures, winning margins, and don't understand synthetic racing at all.


Thanks for the laugh.

[classhandicapper]

Thanks for the laugh.

You're welcome. I'm aware that most good handicappers disagree with me on this and I'm more than comfortable with my understanding of the game relative to others.

I wish we could run an isolated experiment and give some these slow unimpressive synthetic horses like Blind Luck, Lookin at Lucky, Zenyatta, Midnight Lute, Life is Sweet, Rail Trip, St Trinians etc... a rapid dirt like pace to close off to see if they could put up dirt like numbers, larger winning margins, and be as visually impressive on synthetic tracks. Oh wait a minute, that's happened a few times over the years and when it does they look way better and run a lot faster.

The reality is that it's almost impossible for top level horses to run fast, win by large margins, or look as good on synthetic tracks because of the nature of the surfaces and the most effective way of running on them. But that doesn't make the horses any less talented.

Specific to horses like Blind Luck and Lookin at Lucky, they made their reputations on synthetic much earlier in their careers. Huge improvement was to be expected throughout the year regardless of surface, but the appearance of improvement on dirt was exaggerated by the differences in the surfaces and occasional snail like paces on synthetic.

Blind Luck may be better on dirt, but it's not by a huge amount.

[cj]

It shouldn't drive you nuts.

Blind Luck was one of the leading 3YO fillies in the country based one her SYNTHETIC FORM before she even tried dirt. The perception is that she's way better on dirt because most handicappers are so geared towards speed figures, winning margins, and don't understand synthetic racing at all. But she was an improving filly before she switched to dirt and her losses on synthetic were mostly related to extremely slow paces.

I think any horse that beats her on either dirt or synthetic is beating a very good horse in both name and ability.

Couldn't it be geared to the fact she WINS on dirt, but has lost a few times on synthetics at short prices, including twice at 1 to 2? How does that involve speed figures?

Also, she has overcome slow paces to win on dirt a few times already, something much harder to do on that surface.

[andymays]

Everyone needs to remember that the race is at Hollywood and not Santa Anita on Pro Ride. I think the only reason Hollendorfer is considering the race is because the Hollywood cushion track plays a lot more like a dirt surface.

[Dahoss9698]

You're welcome. I am aware that most good handicappers disagree with me on this and I'm more than comfortable with my understanding of the game relative to most others.

I wish we could run an isolated experiment and give some these slow unimpressive synthetic horses like Blind Luck, Lookin at Lucky, Zenyatta, Midnight Lute, Life is Sweet, Rail Trip etc... a rapid dirt like pace to close off to see if they could put up dirt like numbers, larger winning margins, and be as visually impressive on synthetic tracks. Oh wait a minute. That happened a few times and when it did they looked way better and ran a lot faster.

The reality is that it's almost impossible for top level horses to run fast, win by large margins, or look as good on synthetic tracks because of the nature of the surfaces and the most effective way of running on them. But that doesn't make the horses any less talented.

Specific to horses like Blind Luck and Lookin at Lucky, they made their reputations on synthetic much earlier in their careers. Huge improvement was to be expected throughout the year regardless of surface, but the appearance of improvement on dirt was exaggerated by the differences in the surfaces and occasional snail like paces on synthetic.

Blind Luck may be better on dirt, but it's not by a huge amount.

I'm pretty comfortable with my understanding of the game as well. I don't have to make long, drawn out posts to show it either. I find it funny that you seem to have it pretty much figured out for everyone else. You have no idea why people think the way they do. You think you do.

Was Midnight Lute really a synthetic horse?

[classhandicapper]

Couldn't it be geared to the fact she WINS on dirt, but has lost a few times on synthetics at short prices, including twice at 1 to 2? How does that involve speed figures?

Also, she has overcome slow paces to win on dirt a few times already, something much harder to do on that surface.

Racing record is an alternative way of looking at it (one that I like to use), but a slow pace on synthetic is a lot different than a slow pace on dirt.

A couple of her losses on synthetic had paces that made it close to physically impossible for all but a special horse with the ability to hit a super high gear late to win. She apparently doesn't have that gear or need it on dirt. (one reason I said I'd prefer Zenyatta over her earlier in the thread)

So if you want so say that horses that don't have that high octane close aren't as good on synthetic because they are more vulnerable to extremely slow paces, you can say that. But I'd prefer saying that horses that do have that gear are really special.

[classhandicapper]

I'm pretty comfortable with my understanding of the game as well. I don't have to make long, drawn out posts to show it either. I find it funny that you seem to have it pretty much figured out for everyone else. You have no idea why people think the way they do. You think you do.

Was Midnight Lute really a synthetic horse?

I think Midnight Lute was more versatile than given credit for despite having a few sub par races with excuse on synthetic.

I don't think I know what everyone thinks, but it's quite common for people to point out slow figures, narrow winning margins over mediocre horses, specific excusable losses etc... as criticisms of some of the top synthetic horses.

Those are the things that most handicappers rightfully look at when evaluating dirt horses. The problem is that the dirt model of handicapping does not transfer very well to synthetic. So my assumption that many people don't understand some of the nuances of synthetic is not a stretch. It's a new game and they are way more familiar with the one they have been playing for decades. I don't recall including you in that.

[classhandicapper]

Couldn't it be geared to the fact she WINS on dirt, but has lost a few times on synthetics at short prices, including twice at 1 to 2? How does that involve speed figures?

Also, she has overcome slow paces to win on dirt a few times already, something much harder to do on that surface.

I forgot to add one minor thing. If it wasn't for a few favorable head bobs, she would also have a couple of losses on dirt.

[joanied]

It's okay. California bill 1083b http://i51.tinypic.com/2vjopwo.gif is in the works in Sacramento.

Will raise WPS takeouts to 30.68% to pick up revenue from the customers


precisely for these kind of matchups. Such geniuses over there. ;)
:D Ya know what I think...the politicians have been through too many earthquakes, and their brains got rattled:ThmbUp: ...
yep, 30.68% will help:rolleyes: :faint: :bang:

[classhandicapper]

Everyone needs to remember that the race is at Hollywood and not Santa Anita on Pro Ride. I think the only reason Hollendorfer is considering the race is because the Hollywood cushion track plays a lot more like a dirt surface.

That's a good point.

Her biggest victory came on that surface, but she also lost a snail race there.

[cj]

I forgot to add one minor thing. If it wasn't for a few favorable head bobs, she would also have a couple of losses on dirt.

If if and buts were candies and nuts...

In my mind, without regard to figures, she is a much better dirt horse. She overcomes poor scenarios on dirt but does not on synthetics. I think horses that excel on one surface are very unlikely to be as good on another. She is just like LAL, he does OK on rubber, but wins on dirt. He has a running style of a grinder just like Blind Luck that doesn't transfer very well to rubber.

It is also why I think Zenyatta won't beat top horses on dirt. She is more a plodder that explodes late. That doesn't transfer very well to dirt. Sure, she is talented and will beat horses like Ginger Punch and Brownie Points, but top horses on dirt, I don't think so.

[andymays]

That's a good point.

Her biggest victory came on that surface, but she also lost a snail race there.

Rosario is a better rider than Bejarano as well. If Hollendorfer runs her at Hollywood he's probably confident he can beat Z.

[classhandicapper]

If if and buts were candies and nuts...

In my mind, without regard to figures, she is a much better dirt horse. She overcomes poor scenarios on dirt but does not on synthetics. I think horses that excel on one surface are very unlikely to be as good on another. She is just like LAL, he does OK on rubber, but wins on dirt. He has a running style of a grinder just like Blind Luck that doesn't transfer very well to rubber.

It is also why I think Zenyatta won't beat top horses on dirt. She is more a plodder that explodes late. That doesn't transfer very well to dirt. Sure, she is talented and will beat horses like Ginger Punch and Brownie Points, but top horses on dirt, I don't think so.

I don't necessarily disagree with anything you said except the word "much".

I'd rather have LAL/BL on dirt and Z on synthetic, but I wouldn't be afraid to run LAL or BL against any member of their sex/age on synthetic either and I think Zenyatta could win the Ladies Classic again this year if they tried (assuming she's still peak).

IMO there are numerous horses that are "much" better on one surface or the other, but these three are not among them.

[classhandicapper]

Rosario is a better rider than Bejarano as well. If Hollendorfer runs her at Hollywood he's probably confident he can beat Z.

I doubt he does that unless the feeling is that Zenyatta is not as good this year as she was in 2008 or in the Classic last year. Some people believe that. I'm agnostic pending another race. :lol:

IMHO Blind Luck is nowhere near as good as peak Zenyatta on any surface (at least at this stage). I also haven't seen anything that makes me believe Z doesn't like Hollywood.

[PaceAdvantage]

See, this drives me nuts. :bang:

Silly little things like surface be damned: it's "another big name," and that's what matters.

headdesk.I actually found his use of the word "another" to be rather amusing, especially when viewed in the context of the 2010 campaign.

[classhandicapper]

If Hollendorfer runs her at Hollywood he's probably confident he can beat Z.

This raises a point that IMO is worthy of discussion.

Virtually everyone agrees that Moss and Shirreffs have taken a very conservative approach with Zenyatta by avoiding shipping, only running on dirt twice, scratching when CD came up sloppy, not running against males except in the Classic etc... Some think they have been doing it specifically to protect her record because she's not that good and not because they are trying to peak later in the year.

Hopefully WITHOUT debating the merits of the campaign and their motives for it (already done to death) what does that say about what they think if she wins her next start, is 19 for 19, and they still run her in the Classic on dirt at 10F against Grade 1 males?

After all that, would they really risk embarrassing her badly if they didn't absolutely know from their trip to CD with her last year that she loves the surface, is going really well, and can be competitive?

I think there's almost no chance they run unless they think they have a huge shot and they still seem pretty determined to run.

[cj]

This raises a point that IMO is worthy of discussion.

Virtually everyone agrees that Moss and Shirreffs have taken a very conservative approach with Zenyatta by avoiding shipping, only running on dirt twice, scratching when CD came up sloppy, not running against males except in the Classic etc... Some think they have been doing it specifically to protect her record because she's not that good and not because they are trying to peak later in the year.

Hopefully WITHOUT debating the merits of the campaign and their motives for it (already done to death) what does that say about what they think if she wins her next start, is 19 for 19, and they still run her in the Classic on dirt at 10F against Grade 1 males?

After all that, would they really risk embarrassing her badly if they didn't absolutely know from their trip to CD with her last year that she loves the surface, is going really well, and can be competitive?

I think there's almost no chance they run unless they think they have a huge shot and they still seem pretty determined to run.

Let's not forget she was scratched out when she had to face Nashoba's Key.

[classhandicapper]

Let's not forget she was scratched out when she had to face Nashoba's Key.

Which race was that?

That must have been way before she had even developed????

[cj]

March of 2008, San Margarita Handicap.

[SharpCat]

I wish I owned a plodder like Zenyatta that could close into a slow pace, while usually going widest of all and then fire a fast final 1/8th if needed. I've watched the 2008 Apple Blossom several times. Sure seemed to me that she was every bit as effective on dirt as she has been on the synthetic. I think the Classic right now comes down to Zenyatta and Blame. Blame is a serious horse but I think Zenyatta will get him.

[cj]

I wish I owned a plodder like Zenyatta that could close into a slow pace, while usually going widest of all and then fire a fast final 1/8th if needed. I've watched the 2008 Apple Blossom several times. Sure seemed to me that she was every bit as effective on dirt as she has been on the synthetic. I think the Classic right now comes down to Zenyatta and Blame. Blame is a serious horse but I think Zenyatta will get him.

Brownie Points is no Blame.

[classhandicapper]

March of 2008, San Margarita Handicap.

It don't remember the details of that.

She only had 3 races at that point, but she may have had a minor physical problem because they ran her in January and she didn't come back until April in the Apple Blossom. I doubt they were avoiding Nashoba's Key to take on Gingers Punch at that stage. It's too bad Nashoba's Key was retired after that race.

[SharpCat]

Brownie Points is no Blame.


No question about that. I think Blame is a nice race horse and Zenyatta will have to fire a big race to win. I believe she will do so.

[Dahoss9698]

It don't remember the details of that.

She only had 3 races at that point, but she may have had a minor physical problem because they ran her in January and she didn't come back until April in the Apple Blossom. I doubt they were avoiding Nashoba's Key to take on Gingers Punch at that stage. It's too bad Nashoba's Key was retired after that race.

Nashoba's Key didn't retire. She had an accident in her stall and had to be euthanized.

I've mentioned Zenyatta being scratched from the Margarita the morning of the race before. According to her connections she wasn't 100%.

http://www.thefreelibrary.com/SANTA+MARGARITA+HANDICAP%3A+NASHOBA'S+KEY+CRUISES+ HORSE+RACING%3A+GAINES'...-a0176622290


Zenyatta, three for three and coming off a 13/4-length victory in the Grade II El Encino Stakes (http://encyclopedia.thefreedictionary.com/El+Encino+Stakes) The El Encino Stakesis a race for thoroughbred race horses held in the United States. The El Encino Stakes, run at Santa Anita Park each year, is open to fillies and mares, age three and up, willing to race one and one-sixteenth miles on the dirt. on Jan. 13, was withdrawn Sunday morning by trainer John Shirreffs because she had missed some training and wasn't 100 percent for the race.

[classhandicapper]

Nashoba's Key didn't retire. She had an accident in her stall and had to be euthanized.



Wow, I can't believe I either missed that or don't remember it. I hope something important was going on in my life because if not, I might be getting old.

What a shame. Tragic loss.

[andymays]

Blind Luck nominated to Lady's Secret, though showdown with Zenyatta unlikely - Thoroughbred Times

http://www.thoroughbredtimes.com/racing-news/2010/September/16/Blind-Luck-could-face-Zenyatta-in-Ladys-Secret.aspx

[classhandicapper]

Blind Luck nominated to Lady's Secret, though showdown with Zenyatta unlikely - Thoroughbred Times

http://www.thoroughbredtimes.com/racing-news/2010/September/16/Blind-Luck-could-face-Zenyatta-in-Ladys-Secret.aspx

“You nominate to keep your options open, to cover all your bases, and if Zenyatta doesn’t run maybe you would run,” Hollendorfer said.

I guess just like the Apple Blossom, the Zenyatta camp is still ducking all the good filly and mare competition. :lol:

[cj]

Nobody ever said trainers were smart. Maybe he is learning from "King Duck" Shirreffs.

http://www.justducks.co.uk/Images/Lanco/Lanco%20King%20Duck.jpg

Seriously, why would they want to stay to run on that surface for what is not very good money? I guess we'd have to ask the Z camp to get an answer.

[BluegrassProf]

I guess just like the Apple Blossom, the Zenyatta camp is still ducking all the good filly and mare competition. :lol:Right on!! I don't know how on earth people could think Zenyatta's been hiding. I mean, she clearly hasn't been. Clearly.

:D

I know your comment is largely in jest, since it sorta has to be...might as well at least find some humor in the state of affairs...

[PhantomOnTour]

Let's not forget she was scratched out when she had to face Nashoba's Key.
Poor Nashoba's Key. She got dealt a bad hand at Mth for the BC Filly/Mare Turf. That course was a marshland and she still ran very hard and very well. I think she came in 4th or thereabouts on a course she clearly wasn't handling. Tough gal-sad story. Joe Talamo's first big horse and I think she carried him to his first GrStks win.