Why Horseplayers Continue to Struggle

[xfile]

Dr Robert Anthony sent this out and it really hits home for horseplayers. The struggle that 90% go through does not have to be. It is unnatural:

"We often talk about "going with the flow". Why? Because that is what you were created to do! Think about this...everything that has been created has a natural flow and when it operates in that flow there is no struggle. Water does not struggle to flow.
Grass does not struggle to grow.
Wind does not struggle to blow.
Rain does not struggle to fall.
Sun does not struggle to shine.
Earth does not struggle to rotate.
Flowers do not struggle to bloom.

What does this tell us? Struggle is unnatural. Why sentence ourselves to a life of struggle when it is clearly unnatural? In short, struggle is a "learned response" that has been taught to us by those who are in a trance of struggle. This "learned response" has become an UNCONSCIOUS HABITUAL PATTERN. Awareness is the first step to making any change in our lives. If you are aware that struggle is not "normal" and that it is a learned UNCONSCIOUS HABITUAL PATTERN, you can CONSCIOUSLY make the choice not to live your life paddling upstream.

Focus your attention on this; NOTHING YOU WANT IS UPSTREAM! Everything you want is DOWNSTREAM. This means you do not have to struggle (paddle up stream) to have it. All you need to do is put your boat in the stream and let it carry you. In fact, you don't need to paddle at all. Even if your boat is pointed in the wrong direction (upstream), as soon as you stop paddling the stream will turn your boat around without any effort on your part. Then you will be going in the direction where everything you desire takes place. It is a simple but powerful metaphor.

Give up the struggle once and for all. Let go of the paddles, trust that Source Energy will guide you downstream to your desire and start enjoying the trip. It's a heck of a lot easier! Today will bring you a new awareness, a lesson or a manifestation that you are making progress - IF YOU LOOK FOR IT! No matter how large or small, please record it in your Evidence Journal. It will only take a few moments and will AUTOMATICALLY put you in the Flow.

Truly Caring for Your Success!
Dr. Robert Anthony"

[misscashalot]

Dr Robert Anthony sent this out and it r.... Truly Caring for Your Success!
Dr. Robert Anthony"

whatz this sermon have to do with horse race gambling or horse racing in general??

[xfile]

whatz this sermon have to do with horse race gambling or horse racing in general??
It has everything to do with the psychology of this game and that one reason is the roadblock for most horseplayers.

[46zilzal]

There is much truth in this fellow's suggestions and having teamed with a pro, it is his contention that these habits are only to be recognized by a second impartial observer.....He's right as mine have been nakedly exposed in order to work with them and they are ALL on the wagering side of the coin.

[Fingal]

whatz this sermon have to do with horse race gambling or horse racing in general??

That things ( including horseracing ) can be as easy or as hard as one chooses them to be.

When something simple works & you strive to make it better, you usually make it worse.

[Light]

Awareness is the first step to making any change in our lives.

For me meditation has made the difference between winning and losing. I have the same skills whether I meditate or not. But I have seen over and over, I have a much higher success rate from meditating, and my biggest score was definitely due to a calm mind that didn't argue with itself.The KISS attitude.

Before playing in the January 2010 drf/nhc, I had stopped meditating, and not really winning and considered not playing in the contest cause I was doing poorly. I decided to give the contest a go by prepping myself with meditation again and finished 23rd. Afterwards, I stopped meditating and started losing again. Since May, I have been meditating again and winning again. I'm not really sure how I'm handicapping or betting any differently in the 2 modes of being except one is obviously more successful. That is what a successful handicapper cannot impart to a student of the game. His consciousness. Of course meditation also affects your everyday life by increasing awareness.

I think other factors are also important such as getting the right amount of sleep, eating right and not being stressed out from work or family. This game requires focus too,but the right amount. Too casual and you miss detail.Too serious and it becomes stressful and self defeating. That neutrality is something meditation helps me do.

[Tom]

I have a tape of the alpha sound to put my brain in alpha when I handicap at home. Don't know if it does or not, but it helps to do the Pizzola "soft focus" step.

[ralph_the_cat]

Grass gets burned, dried up
I cant see the sun shining on cloudy days
Rain is not falling in many farm areas this month, droughts happen
Flowers die all the time
Ever try and fly a kite with no wind?


Life is a big struggle... I've never found success without struggling.

[thaskalos]

It has everything to do with the psychology of this game and that one reason is the roadblock for most horseplayers. I have read some of Dr. Robert Anthony's books, and you are right...his "power of the mind" approach is helpful to horseplayers, as well as to other people who expose themselves to a great deal of "stress" at their jobs.

In fact, in one of his books - I think it was titled "Betting On Yourself" - he writes about a meeting he had with a grateful reader, who attributed his great success largely to Dr. Anthony's books.

They met at this man's lavish home...at which point, Dr. Anthony found out that the man was a very successful professional horseplayer.

Dr. Anthony was so intrigued with the idea of profitable horse race speculation, that he became a student of this man...after promising not to divulge this man's methods of play until after his death.

[xfile]

I have read some of Dr. Robert Anthony's books, and you are right...his "power of the mind" approach is helpful to horseplayers, as well as to other people who expose themselves to a great deal of "stress" at their jobs.

In fact, in one of his books - I think it was titled "Betting On Yourself" - he writes about a meeting he had with a grateful reader, who attributed his great success largely to Dr. Anthony's books.

They met at this man's lavish home...at which point, Dr. Anthony found out that the man was a very successful professional horseplayer.

Dr. Anthony was so intrigued with the idea of profitable horse race speculation, that he became a student of this man...after promising not to divulge this man's methods of play until after his death.
I did not know that - very interesting...

[Tom]

He was also a guest at several of Doc Sartin's seminars back in the day.

[Ted Craven]

Perhaps the horse-player referred to was not Dr Sartin, but Chapter 9 of 'Betting on Yourself' is about Sartin's Win Therapy approach.

Follow Up Issues 31 and 32 contain some articles by Dr Anthony and some recounting of his exploits at a few Sartin seminars (www.sartinmethodology.com (http://www.sartinmethodology.com) - Library, Follow Up section).

Ted

[Ted Craven]

Thank you for that opening quote, Xfile. I believe that state of effortless mindfulness, the zen, the 'zone' whatever is a crucial requirement in our game. Unless you have a 'bot' doing all the work for you, there are so many details, mental and emotional distractions pecking constantly at our attention that, in the heat of battle, it's a wonder we can remember and bring to bear what we know about handicapping and wagering at all, let along effectively and profitably.

After mastering one's handicapping software or method, and devising wagering strategies suitable to one's temperament and edge, 'mental skills' are what puts it all together.

Brushing up on Anthony's website info and reading a few particular lines from the opening quote, it appears he has embraced, or perhaps preceded by decades, the recent 'Secret' craze and continues to espouse the timeless aspects and utility of self-knowledge.

Time to check up on that a bit further, and re-read my old copy of Betting on Yourself :)

Ted

[WinterTriangle]

It has everything to do with the psychology of this game and that one reason is the roadblock for most horseplayers.

Thank you. I was going to start a topic on this

Use the analogy of getting a broad liberal arts education before moving to on advanced Physics degree. It's about learning how to think critically about different subjects, and learning about the holes in your own thinking. (We all have them).

Studying FAILURE is critical; you may be able to see it coming next time around. Yet failure is so often stressed in the negative! I remember asking if people here carefully reviewed their failures at the end of the day, was suprised, many said they don't.

So yes, I read beyer, brohamer, et. al. But you must find your own truths, and methods, based on your own observations.
I believe that statistics can become propaganda, and sytems can become indoctrination. Both can lead followers to looking at information "the wrong way", or looking at data in a way that the real information they need is either not being looked at, or obscured. The devil is in the details and I believe a certain amount of critical thinking will get far. I believe that pragmatists, using varying but associated theories, probably have more of a shot than those who are overly systematic.

An example I saw recently was a maiden ..........with a sprinter's pedigree ......running in a long route. Once a friend pointed out that pedigree to me, I glanced at the speed figs, and realized the horse had no talent in the area of what he was bred to be good at. So they were running him long...... because there is nothing else to do with him. The trainer had a high % with 2nd time starters over a large number of starts. But looking deeper, the trainer runs so rarely "at that distance" so his % was actually dismal for "this" endeavor. So, most of the mantra-like evaluations used to analyze this horse were not of much use.


Weave some new patterns into your brain and you see what comes out!!! If you tend to look at the forest, put some serious time into looking at the trees. Those who concentrate on trees, spend some time looking at the forest. What comes out of doing this is invaluable in terms of perspective.


Experimenting led me to playing around with euro handicapping. Couldn't help but notice how few numbers there are (no beyers, points of call, etc.) and how people handicap those races successfully. These are horses running different distances on different surfaces quite often, too. yet, they are handicappable. It's achievement based and you have to learn about how these horses handle different footing......because they run many different distances, at many different tracks.

Read the horse racing books, but read outside them, too. One of the things about READING non-horse racing materials, because many of these books help you examine how you think.
"Psychology of Intelligence Analysis, by Richards J. Heuer, Jr."

http://www.amazon.com/Psychology-Intelligence-Analysis-Richards-Heuer/dp/B0016OST3O/ref=sr_1_1?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1284278930&sr=1-1

Malcolm Gladwell's "Blink".

On Being Certain: Believing You Are Right Even When You're Not, Robert Burton

　

　

[Trotman]

Ray Taulbot said repeatedly "Don't Look For Something Not There" and for any who should follow this wisdom the benefits or profits will follow. Then we had Doc Sartin who IMO contributed more to this same mind set, an extension I will call it, two different men in two different era's but the same winning message. And look who we're behind the Doc in his Methodology, a who's who of the people we discuss here from Beyer and Brohamer to Mahl, Mitchell and Pizzola. Forget your own personal feelings towards any of these men because of here say or whatever because now days it's all about the flavour of the day or month but what they did for the game of handicapping will always remain remarkable. :ThmbUp:

[thaskalos]

The handicapping authors are partly to blame for the misfortunes of the players, IMO.

Since their main motive is to sell as many books as possible...they downplay the inherent difficulties of this game...making it appear a lot easier than it really is.

Outrageous claims, and carefully chosen race examples, make these authors look like geniouses...and, as a result, beginning players copy their playing methods, and head to the track with very unrealistic expectations.

Our game comes equipped with heartbreaking losses, and head-spinning losing streaks...and the only players who profit, are the ones who have learned how to win the ongoing battle against their own emotions.

Unfortunately...that knowledge can take many years to aquire...and cannot be taught in any book.

[Trotman]

thaskalos the latter authors I will agree with you on that. Ray Taulbot always said you will lose many more than you win and some of the authors that many of us have given credit to changing the game outright stole idea's and published these idea's as their own, and these again would be these latter authors.

[Actor]

Dr Robert Anthony sent this out and it really hits home for horseplayers. The struggle that 90% go through does not have to be. It is unnatural:

"We often talk about "going with the flow". Why? Because that is what you were created to do! Think about this...everything that has been created has a natural flow and when it operates in that flow there is no struggle. Water does not struggle to flow.
Grass does not struggle to grow.
Wind does not struggle to blow.
Rain does not struggle to fall.
Sun does not struggle to shine.
Earth does not struggle to rotate.
Flowers do not struggle to bloom.

What does this tell us? Struggle is unnatural. Why sentence ourselves to a life of struggle when it is clearly unnatural? In short, struggle is a "learned response" that has been taught to us by those who are in a trance of struggle. This "learned response" has become an UNCONSCIOUS HABITUAL PATTERN. Awareness is the first step to making any change in our lives. If you are aware that struggle is not "normal" and that it is a learned UNCONSCIOUS HABITUAL PATTERN, you can CONSCIOUSLY make the choice not to live your life paddling upstream.

Focus your attention on this; NOTHING YOU WANT IS UPSTREAM! Everything you want is DOWNSTREAM. This means you do not have to struggle (paddle up stream) to have it. All you need to do is put your boat in the stream and let it carry you. In fact, you don't need to paddle at all. Even if your boat is pointed in the wrong direction (upstream), as soon as you stop paddling the stream will turn your boat around without any effort on your part. Then you will be going in the direction where everything you desire takes place. It is a simple but powerful metaphor.

Give up the struggle once and for all. Let go of the paddles, trust that Source Energy will guide you downstream to your desire and start enjoying the trip. It's a heck of a lot easier! Today will bring you a new awareness, a lesson or a manifestation that you are making progress - IF YOU LOOK FOR IT! No matter how large or small, please record it in your Evidence Journal. It will only take a few moments and will AUTOMATICALLY put you in the Flow.

Truly Caring for Your Success!
Dr. Robert Anthony"
Sounds anti-Darwinian.

Everything you want is upstream. Everything is a struggle. Those who succeed in the struggle live to procreate. Those who fail die and become extinct.

"No pain, no gain!" - Arnold Schwarzenegger

[Vinnie]

Sounds anti-Darwinian.

Everything you want is upstream. Everything is a struggle. Those who succeed in the struggle live to procreate. Those who fail die and become extinct.

"No pain, no gain!" - Arnold Schwarzenegger

Actor:

Activities in which a person is generally involved in most definitely don't have to be that way. Some times the things right in front of our faces are exactly "what you first perceived them to be". Often times, I believe that we as human beings make things much more difficult than they really need to be. I believe that it is part of the human condition so to speak. I really think that on a personal level it is very important to know what makes you tick and what makes you perform at an optimum level. If I am tired or worn/stressed out from a long day at work or what have you, I may just watch the races and I in all likelihood won't play. I have to be in a very positive state of mind, knowing that I can devote all of my energy and concentration to the task at hand before I undertake the endeavor of handicapping and wagering any money at the windows. There is a lot to be said for being within your own personal zone or "happy place" when you are handicapping the races. Honestly, my wife on occasion will say to me, "Aren't you going to play and take a shot today?" If I am tired and just not with it altogether, my reply will ordinarily be, "Maybe tomorrow, when I have the chance to get a little more rest". I am indeed fortunate to have a wife that encourages me to handicap and play the ponies. Believe me, I thank my lucky stars each day that I have such a wonderful wife. :)

[formula_2002]

"Grass does not struggle to grow.
Wind does not struggle to blow.
Rain does not struggle to fall.
Sun does not struggle to shine.
Earth does not struggle to rotate.
Flowers do not struggle to bloom."


I see more truth in the fact that every living thing struggles in one way or the other.

[GARY Z]

Thank you. I was going to start a topic on this


.
I believe that statistics can become propaganda, and sytems can become indoctrination. Both can lead followers to looking at information "the wrong way", or looking at data in a way that the real information they need is either not being looked at, or obscured. The devil is in the details and I believe a certain amount of critical thinking will get far. I believe that pragmatists, using varying but associated theories, probably have more of a shot than those who are overly systematic.

An example I saw recently was a maiden ..........with a sprinter's pedigree ......running in a long route. Once a friend pointed out that pedigree to me, I glanced at the speed figs, and realized the horse had no talent in the area of what he was bred to be good at. So they were running him long...... because there is nothing else to do with him. The trainer had a high % with 2nd time starters over a large number of starts. But looking deeper, the trainer runs so rarely "at that distance" so his % was actually dismal for "this" endeavor. So, most of the mantra-like evaluations used to analyze this horse were not of much use.


Winter:

While you first stated stats become propoganda, you utilized stats to
discount the sprinter going long in the next paragraph.

Through the years I've learned never to question the tactics of
winning trainers especially when the odds are valued in your favor.In this case, I'm uncertain of how good the trainer's % is for wins/or in the money.

Poor overall in the $ stats would lead me to agree with you,but
"good" trainers can score in the exotics,which can be examined
by your own notes or through Formulator under such scenarios
as jockey -trainer,long /short etc...


A sprinter going long on the grass might be a good play based upon the pace
scenario and post position of the sprinter including odds, not only
as a win bet but in the exotics, based on trainer stats listed above.

[Dave Schwartz]

Horse players struggle because the game is difficult. One could say that the game was designed to be difficult.

[thaskalos]

Sounds anti-Darwinian.

Everything you want is upstream. Everything is a struggle. Those who succeed in the struggle live to procreate. Those who fail die and become extinct.

"No pain, no gain!" - Arnold Schwarzenegger
"Even if you win the rat race...you are still a rat" - William Sloane Coffin

[Fingal]

...and the only players who profit, are the ones who have learned how to win the ongoing battle against their own emotions.

Unfortunately...that knowledge can take many years to acquire...and cannot be taught in any book.

To paraphrase Sun Tsu-

Know yourself, know your enemy. A thousand battles, a thousand victories.

[xfile]

Horse players struggle because the game is difficult. One could say that the game was designed to be difficult.
Players perceive it to be difficult. The simple methods work best. Betting overlays to win on a certain criteria nets a 'guy' I know 6 figures tax free off-shore every year.

[xfile]

BTW he bets $100 to win on selected overlays going off at 12-1 or higher. Low win percentage but a 6 figure net profit. Who cares about win% when you are raking in the ROI. He and another man I know have been doing this for quite a while. They don't even have any losing months ever that I can remember. Their methods are so simple yet so effective. Like I said - this game is "perceived" to be difficult. Hence the struggle....Horseplayers believe only a complicated mythical secret beats this game. Not true.....

[Dave Schwartz]

Players perceive it to be difficult. The simple methods work best.

XFile,

So, are you saying that the game is not difficult?



Dave

[DeanT]

Players perceive it to be difficult. The simple methods work best. Betting overlays to win on a certain criteria nets a 'guy' I know 6 figures tax free off-shore every year.

That sounds really simple; kinda like a guy I know who does a simple put writing strategy to make money. However, finding the horses (or the puts) to play, is not exactly like picking daisies.

[xfile]

That sounds really simple; kinda like a guy I know who does a simple put writing strategy to make money. However, finding the horses (or the puts) to play, is not exactly like picking daisies.
It's not a game of picking winners (Although there is a simple criteria used to find potential bets). Gambling involves odds. When odds are in your favor to a large degree, like I said, you will have a low win % but high profit with a successful strategy/process. A problem here is that psychologically a player can't handle the losing streaks. I'm talking about something like no winners for 10 days betting $100 win bets (several a day) and STILL ending the same month with over $8k net profit. Very few can handle that pressure. But these guys have been doing it so long they know what works and they don't freak out during a losing streak. Most players betting $100 win tickets who didn't cash for 10 days would be looking for a bridge to jump off of.

[xfile]

XFile,

So, are you saying that the game is not difficult?



Dave
I used to think it was Dave but it has been a few years since I had those ideas. Simple works best and makes the most profit. But most players believe a simple strategy could never be good enough to beat this game. They believe this has to be complicated. I, after decades of work, found otherwise.

[DeanT]

It's not a game of picking winners (Although there is a simple criteria used to find potential bets). Gambling involves odds. When odds are in your favor to a large degree, like I said, you will have a low win % but high profit with a successful strategy/process. A problem here is that psychologically a player can't handle the losing streaks. I'm talking about something like no winners for 10 days betting $100 win bets (several a day) and STILL ending the same month with over $8k net profit. Very few can handle that pressure. But these guys have been doing it so long they know what works and they don't freak out during a losing streak. Most players betting $100 win tickets who didn't cash for 10 days would be looking for a bridge to jump off of.

Well of course; that is rudimentary. But you are making it sound easy. If I am making $8k a month and have a losing three days, I could not care less. The problem is: It is hard to make $8000 a month to get into that position in the first place.

[Horseplayersbet.com]

The game is negative expectation game. If 1 billion is bet, at least 150 has to be lost by players. And most players these days know how to read a form and pretty much know as much as the next player.
Dumb money has pretty much gone away.
So to think this game is easy is to fool yourself.

[xfile]

Well of course; that is rudimentary. But you are making it sound easy. If I am making $8k a month and have a losing three days, I could not care less. The problem is: It is hard to make $8000 a month to get into that position in the first place.That would be 10 straight losing days (in once instance) of $100 win bets (several a day) and sill making that profit at the end of the month (minimum accept odds of 12-1 on selected overlays - average MEDIAN about 20-1 on the winners - had an 80-1 the other day). When figuring average we throw out those 80-1 (or other huge odds a few a month) winners as to not skew the average. Once again low win% but high return. Win % means absolutely nothing. This is a numbers game. Like Barry Meadow wrote about many years ago. I mentioned in another post that he is still ahead of his time (subject=overlays). So few of us are actaully doing what he said could be done over a decade ago. I have only known less than a handful of players who can mentally withstand the losing streaks it requires for this ultimately successful strategy.

[thaskalos]

That would be 10 straight losing days (in once instance) of $100 win bets (several a day) and sill making that profit at the end of the month (minimum accept odds of 12-1 on selected overlays - average MEDIAN about 20-1 on the winners - had an 80-1 the other day). When figuring average we throw out those 80-1 (or other huge odds a few a month) winners as to not skew the average. Once again low win% but high return. Win % means absolutely nothing. This is a numbers game. Like Barry Meadow wrote about many years ago. I mentioned in another post that he is still ahead of his time (subject=overlays). So few of us are actaully doing what he said could be done over a decade ago. I have only known less than a handful of players who can mentally withstand the losing streaks it requires for this ultimately successful strategy.Xfile...forgive me for being skeptical, but what you are saying is hard to believe.

Average odds 20-1, long losing streaks, but never any losing months?

Six digits a year with $100 win bets?

You mentioned that your "friend" bets off-shore. If the depressed odds are not a concern...why does he limit himself to $100 win bets? If I was as sharp and as consistent as your friend, I would be looking to bet as much as I could get away with...

[Overlay]

The game is negative expectation game. If 1 billion is bet, at least 150 has to be lost by players. And most players these days know how to read a form and pretty much know as much as the next player.
Dumb money has pretty much gone away.
So to think this game is easy is to fool yourself.

I agree entirely about the high rate of takeout compared with other wagering games, as well as the toughness of the competition. I also understand the point that you're trying to convey with your comment about betting on races being a negative-expectation game, in the sense of the take plus breakage being skimmed off the top in every race before the first penny is paid out to winning bettors.

I don't mean to split semantic hairs, or minimize the difficulty of the task confronting the horseplayer, but if handicapping were in fact a true negative-expectation game (in the same sense that casino games of pure chance are), I'd quit playing today, since any short-term winnings would be totally dependent on blind luck, and consistent long-term success would be a complete impossibility. More than ever, the player's hope rests in being able to recognize and capitalize on betting value, wherever in a field or wager type it may occur.

[thaskalos]

I agree entirely about the high rate of takeout compared with other wagering games, as well as the toughness of the competition. I also understand the point that you're trying to convey with your comment about betting on races being a negative-expectation game, in the sense of the take plus breakage being skimmed off the top in every race before the first penny is paid out to winning bettors.

I don't mean to split semantic hairs, or minimize the difficulty of the task confronting the horseplayer, but if handicapping were in fact a true negative-expectation game (in the same sense that casino games of pure chance are), I'd quit playing today, since any short-term winings would be totally dependent on random chance, and consistent long-term success would be a complete impossibility. The player's hope lies in being able to recognize and capitalize on betting value, wherever in a field or wager type it may occur.I agree with you...the game cannot be called a negative-expectation game...because if it were, there would be no possibility of winning in the long run.

But what is your opinion about these outrageous claims we sometimes read on this board?

60% - 100% ROI after years of play...Six-figure annual incomes with $100 win bets...never any losing months...could all this be true, Overlay?

Where have all the rest of us gone wrong? :)

[DeanT]

I agree with you...the game cannot be called a negative-expectation game...because if it were, there would be no possibility of winning in the long run.

But what is your opinion about these outrageous claims we sometimes read on this board?

60% - 100% ROI after years of play...Six-figure annual incomes with $100 win bets...never any losing months...could all this be true, Overlay?

Where have all the rest of us gone wrong? :)

If you are betting horses that are 20-1, and hitting them at a monster 8% hit rate, you are probably going to have a losing streak of 65 as a regular occurrence. If you bet two horses a day, start with a 10k bankroll, where you bet 1%, you are probably going to have a random month where you are down $6000+ or so for the month.

[lansdale]

For all those who have enjoyed this thread I got some nice Florida swampland waiting for you.

[Overlay]

I agree with you...the game cannot be called a negative-expectation game...because if it were, there would be no possibility of winning in the long run.

But what is your opinion about these outrageous claims we sometimes read on this board?

60% - 100% ROI after years of play...Six-figure annual incomes with $100 win bets...never any losing months...could all this be true, Overlay?

Where have all the rest of us gone wrong? :)

I don't judge them. If any information is provided indicating that there might be something behind the claims that would be useful for me to know, I might explore further and gather what value I can. The question that I always want the answer to is: whether these claims may be (or have been) true or not, what will keep the method or selection service that generated those winnings from becoming unprofitable/obsolete in the future as more people find out about it, and start using it?

[thaskalos]

For all those who have enjoyed this thread I got some nice Florida swampland waiting for you.WHERE...and how much?

[xfile]

You guys have fun and keep on struggling.....peace.....cheers and best of luck with all your wagers. In the words of Rex Ryan "If you want to be a Jet then play like a f***ing Jet!"....So much for that as they are 0-1....well long season it is....lol. I've been a Jet fan since the days of Joe Namath who, by the way, has an interesting radio show on NFL radio sirius/xm. Check it out, Those guys on NFL radio are sharp. They were picking the KC Chiefs Monday night upset in week 1. And I listened to a show that had me loving the Steelers in week 1 as underdog moneyline bet which I sank a small off-shore boat with on Sunday.

[Greyfox]

What does this tell us? Struggle is unnatural. Why sentence ourselves to a life of struggle when it is clearly unnatural? In short, struggle is a "learned response" ..........................Focus your attention on this; NOTHING YOU WANT IS UPSTREAM! Everything you want is DOWNSTREAM. "

"Poppycock." Lewis and Clark and anyone else who made breakthroughs knew the value of struggle. Yes, there is value in the Flow Experience. But there is also value in the Struggle Experience. You need both to integrate meaningful constructs in your understanding of virtually anything.

[Stillriledup]

People have a general tendency to gravitate towards 'the smart money'. If you bet an even money shot, you have lots of people who agree with you, that feels good to a horseplayer who knows nothing.

You gotta go against the crowd to have any shot at success.

[jamey1977]

People have a general tendency to gravitate towards 'the smart money'. If you bet an even money shot, you have lots of people who agree with you, that feels good to a horseplayer who knows nothing.

You gotta go against the crowd to have any shot at success.
Going against the crowd. What do you mean? Betting overlays that go from 3 to 1 official morning line to 7 to 1 off ? . Or doing entirely different things? All I know is this can be effective. But losing streaks are just awful? Can lose 17 in a row, betting these overlays. But which books tell us how to bet smart overlays. ? No one has ever said how they do what they do and provide examples and data. No one says nothing. Joe Takach would pick his spots and get half winners at about 6 to 8 dollars. He would bet 200 dollars to a thousand to Win sometimes. Does he still do this? Wouldn't it be easier waiting for our spots and winning half ? We just have to be patient and bet those live second picks that always come up. every day. Can't we win half. Say play 3 tracks a day. 80 plays for the 3 tracks a month and win about half at 6 dollars. Why can't we do what Joe did for 30 years. He would just use the Southern Cal. circuit, now we could use multi-circuits. Heck with a 7 dollar average or even a 6 dollar average. We would just need 40 percent winners to profit. It seems that everyone is doing different things. One guy makes a living betting odds-on horses. Damn hard but it works for him. These circuits are hard and the damn crowd is smart. They do screw up, they screw up all the time. Any good books that talk about overlays and shows us how, with examples and samples ? It seems that no one wants to actually show us how they do it. They just beat around the bush. Hiding what they think is some sort of a secret.

[Overlay]

No one has ever said how they do what they do and provide examples and data. No one says nothing....Any good books that talk about overlays and shows us how, with examples and samples ? It seems that no one wants to actually show us how they do it. They just beat around the bush. Hiding what they think is some sort of a secret.
Ahem. ;)

[Greyfox]

No one has ever said how they do what they do and provide examples and data. No one says nothing............... Any good books that talk about overlays and shows us how, with examples and samples ? It seems that no one wants to actually show us how they do it. .

Do you read much jamey1977??
Actually I've found several that tell you "how."
I didn't have to go far for an example.
I recently bought Dr. P's book advertised here on this site and it's all about "Overlays" although he calls them "Longshots." It's a good read.
From the bottom of a PA page I pulled up:

New Book Logical Longshots
and Quickgap ability figures are
now available at Dr. Jim Park's
gapfire.com Come for a visit at
http://www.gapfire.com (http://www.paceadvantage.com/Ads/adclick.php?bannerid=194&zoneid=4&source=&dest=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.gapfire.com&ismap=)

[xfile]

Going against the crowd. What do you mean? Betting overlays that go from 3 to 1 official morning line to 7 to 1 off ?
No that's not it. Horses with ml of 20-1 that have my true odds of 2-1 that go off at 30-1. Now THAT is an overlay.

[atlasaxis]

No that's not it. Horses with ml of 20-1 that have my true odds of 2-1 that go off at 30-1. Now THAT is an overlay.

Kind of like the 7 in the 9th @ Belmont yesterday with morning line @ 8-1, FCR gave it 3-1 fair bet odds (listed on top & best longshot of the race too no less) and it goes off @ 20-1 paying $42.80 for the win??? :) Oh so sweet!

[Charlie D]

No that's not it. Horses with ml of 20-1 that have my true odds of 2-1 that go off at 30-1. Now THAT is an overlay.


Might be misunderstanding you here, but are you saying, a horse that is say evens in a live market and 1-2 on your odds line is not an overplay?? because if you are, you are totally off your rocker

[Charlie D]

Also, you should pay very little attention to a ML as it is of little imprtance really.

The important odds lines are the LIVE markets and your OWN, as it these two that tell you the overlays and underslays.

[thaskalos]

Might be misunderstanding you here, but are you saying, a horse that is say evens in a live market and 1-2 on your odds line is not an overplay?? because if you are, you are totally off your rockerIt is an overlay Charlie...but many players, myself included, have a strong aversion to betting even money shots to win.

[Charlie D]

It is an overlay Charlie...but many players, myself included, have a strong aversion to betting even money shots to win.


Why??

The aim of this game is to BACK the overlays not PASS them over.

[thaskalos]

Why??

The aim of this game is to BACK the overlays not PASS them over.The beauty of the full-card simulcasting game is that you can find whatever you want...without having to wait too long.

To answer your question...I find that I get a terrible headache whenever I am about to place a win bet on an even money shot. Surprisingly...the headache seems to subside whenever I use that even money shot in the exotics...:)

[Charlie D]

So if i'm understanding correctly. Your oddline tells you a horse is an overlay, but because that horse is priced evens you PASS.


Bit of a mad stance to take thaskalos imho as you are PASSING on a GOOD INVESTMENT opportunity according to YOUR analysis.


Each to their own though.

[Charlie D]

ok thaskalos

evens in live maket, 1-2 on your line
6-1 in live market, 2-1 on your line


Both represent GOOD INVESTMENTS according to your line, the only difference is the ROI on the 6-1 will be greater should they win.


Why would you place a bet on one GOOD INVESTMENT and pass on the other one???

Signed

:confused:

Gods County, United Kingdom.

[thaskalos]

ok thaskalos

evens in live maket, 1-2 on your line
6-1 in live market, 2-1 on your line


Both represent GOOD INVESTMENTS according to your line, the only difference is the ROI on the 6-1 will be greater should they win.


Why would you place a bet on one GOOD INVESTMENT and pass on the other one???

Signed

:confused:

Gods County, United Kingdom.Ok Charlie...since you insist, I will give you a more detailed answer.

I am not a slave to my betting line when it comes to the extreme odds ranges...either too high, or too low.

For instance...when a horse is 25-1 on my line, but it goes off at 50-1... it might be an overlay, but I refuse to bet it...because my experience tells me not to trust my betting line in this situation.

The same thing applies to your even money shot...only in reverse. Yes, the even money shot might "theoretically" be an overlay...but I feel that I am entitled to fair compensation for my risk...and I don't think that even money is enough...regardless of what my betting line says.

Not to mention that, in today's game, the even money shot is likely to be 3-5...by the time the race is over...:)

Do you think that it is unreasonable to operate with odds limits...even while using a betting line?

Why should I feel obligated to bet an even money shot, when I have so many races to choose from?

[Charlie D]

Ok Charlie...since you insist, I will give you a more detailed answer.

I am not a slave to my betting line when it comes to the extreme odds ranges...either too high, or too low.

For instance...when a horse is 25-1 on my line, but it goes off at 50-1... it might be an overlay, but I refuse to bet it...because my experience tells me not to trust my betting line in this situation.

The same thing applies to your even money shot...only in reverse. Yes, the even money shot might "theoretically" be an overlay...but I feel that I am entitled to fair compensation for my risk...and I don't think that even money is enough...regardless of what my betting line says.

Not to mention that, in today's game, the even money shot is likely to be 3-5...by the time the race is over...:)

Do you think that it is unreasonable to operate with odds limits...even while using a betting line?

Why should I feel obligated to bet an even money shot, when I have so many races to chose from?


Thaskie


Your 25-1 is telling you the probability is around 4% instead of 2%, which means you have horses ahead of it with a higher probability of winning.

1-2 is around 66% probablity instead of 50%, which probably means no horses ahead of it with a higher probability of winning.


BIG, BIG difference isn't there???


Odds limits are daft as i've tried to demonstrate above. The risk is exactly the same.

[thaskalos]

Thaskie


Your 25-1 is telling you the probability is around 4% instead of 2%, which means you have horses ahead of it with a higher probability of winning.

1-2 is around 66% probablity instead of 50%, which probably means no horses ahead of it with a higher probability of winning.


BIG, BIG difference isn't there???


Odds limits are daft as i've tried to demonstrate above.Charlie...

The whole point of a betting line is to identify overlays REGARDLESS of whether or not there are other horses in the race with higher probabilities of winning.

I am not interested in the horse with the highest probability of winning...I am interested in the best BET in the race.

There is a HUGE difference...

[Charlie D]

Charlie...

The whole point of a betting line is to identify overlays REGARDLESS of whether or not there are other horses in the race with higher probabilities of winning.

I am not interested in the horse with the highest probability of winning...I am interested in the best BET in the race.

There is a HUGE difference...



The best bet in race is not a 50-1 poke that you have 25-1 Thaskie. These are the type of scenarios you should be PASSING and NOT an evens that you have 1-2.

[thaskalos]

The best bet in race is not a 50-1 poke that you have 25-1 Thaskie. These are the type of scenarios you should be PASSING and NOT an evens that you have 1-2.I DID say that I pass the 25-1 "poke" Charlie-boy...maybe you should re-read my post.

If you are confortable betting even money shots to win...go ahead...but I won't be joining you anytime soon...

To each his own, I guess...

There was a guy I met about 15 years ago, who fancied himself to be a "pro"...

He would run over little old ladies on his way to the betting window, in his haste to bet 3-5 shots to show...thinking that he had uncovered great overlays.

Like I said before...I have no interest in betting on the most likely winners...that's a trap, in my book.

I want to make the best BETS possible...and even money shots don't qualify, IMO...except in very rare cases.

[Charlie D]

I read your post Thaskie,YOU made the correct move, but used your 25-1 as an example of races people should be passing.



Like I said before...I have no interest in betting on the most likely winners...that's a trap, in my book.








Why would anyone NOT bet on horses that are falling into the most likely winners category???

Betting a 25-1 at 10-1 when horses are more likely to win is just as daft, YOUR 25-1 poke idealy needs to be the Fav, second fav or at a piush 3rd fav on YOUR line before betting it. If it is not - PASS the race.

[Greyfox]

Like I said before...I have no interest in betting on the most likely winners...that's a trap, in my book.

.

Not always a trap.
The most likely winners should be bet, especially in horizontal bets. The "False Favorites" are the ones that you need to toss.
That's when Overlays really shine.

[Charlie D]

Ok

Hore A is fav and a underlay, but still fav on your line. Horse B is an underlay but still 2nd fav to win on your line, horse C is an underlay, but still in 3rd fav to win the race on your line.


Horse D is 25-1, 14-1 but 10-1 on your line.



. Your horses claims are nowhere near as good A, B or C

This is a PASS race

[thaskalos]

I read your post Thaskie,YOU made the correct move, but used your 25-1 as an example of races people should be passing.








Why would anyone NOT bet on horses that are falling into the most likely winners category???

Betting a 25-1 at 10-1 when horses are more likely to win is just as daft, YOUR 25-1 poke idealy needs to be the Fav, second fav or at a piush 3rd fav on YOUR line before betting it.Charlie...

The 25-1 shot was only an example that I used, to make a point about betting situations that I avoid...and yet, you refer to it in all your posts.

Forget about the 25-1 shot. It says nothing about the way I play.

YOU ASK: "Why would anyone NOT bet on horses that are falling into the most likely winners category?"

ANSWER: When the most probable winner is not going off at the "right" price - as far as our betting line is concerned - should he be bet to win?

What are we arguing about here? Even money shots to win?

Is this why you became such an advanced pace handicapper...and "match-up" enthusiast? In order to isolate on the even money shots? :)

[thaskalos]

Not always a trap.
The most likely winners should be bet, especially in horizontal bets. The "False Favorites" are the ones that you need to toss.
That's when Overlays really shine.Charlie and I were talking about WIN bets...not horizontal bets.

[Charlie D]

YOU ASK: "Why would anyone NOT bet on horses that are falling into the most likely winners category?"

ANSWER: When the most probable winner is not going off at the "right" price - as far as our betting line is concerned - should he be bet to win?


Demonstrate what you mean here as i'm not quite sure what you saying



Is this why you became such an advanced pace handicapper...and "match-up" enthusiast? In order to isolate on the even money shots? :)


Even allowing for the smiley. Why you make this comment is beyond me. I'm trying to show you what i think is an error in thinking not take pee out of you or anyone else.

[thaskalos]

Ok

Hore A is fav and a underlay, but still fav on your line. Horse B is an underlay but still 2nd fav to win on your line, horse C is an underlay, but still in 3rd fav to win the race on your line.


Horse D is 25-1, 14-1 but 10-1 on your line.



. Your horses claims are nowhere near as good A, B or C

This is a PASS raceThis is not where we disagree Charlie...

We were talking about betting even money horses to win...and I said that I refuse to do it. I never said that I would bet on another horse in a race where an even money standout is running.

I REFUSE TO BET EVEN MONEY HORSES TO WIN...EVER!

It doesn't fit with my philosophy of how this game should be played.

With over 100 races available to me on a daily basis...why would I be interested in bets like these?

[Charlie D]

I REFUSE TO BET EVEN MONEY HORSES TO WIN...EVER!



Fine, thats your choice, but that does not mean it's the correct approach does it??

[thaskalos]

Demonstrate what you mean here as i'm not quite sure what you saying






Even allowing for the smiley. Why you make this comment is beyond me. I'm trying to show you what i think is an error in thinking not take pee out of you or anyone else.Charlie...I don't mean to offend.

I am just telling you that, to me, even money horses are no bargain...except in very rare cases. You are welcome to disagree with me...differences of opinion are what this game is all about.

But you keep insisting on showing me the error of my ways.

The game is very chaotic...and we should be adequately compensated for the risks that we take.

IMO...betting on even money shots is "taking the worst of it", except, as I said, for some very rare cases.

[Charlie D]

even money horses are no bargain...except in very rare cases

Utter rubbish, next you'll be telling us 6-5, 2-1, 3-1 shots are no bargain too.

[thaskalos]

Utter rubbish, next you'll be telling us 6-5, 2-1, 3-1 shots are no bargain too. Sorry Charlie...I should have known better than to disagree with a betting expert such as you...

I have only been playing this game for 30 years...I never claimed to know everything...

[SMOO]

A 3-2 that should be even money is just as good a bet as a 15-1 that should be 10-1.

[Charlie D]

Sorry Charlie...I should have known better than to disagree with a betting expert such as you...

I have only been playing this game for 30 years...I never claimed to know everything...


See, there you go again, Why is it when people don't like what i say they resort to this kind of BS


Evens money shots win around 54% in UK and i would guess the rate is similar in US so saying this


even money horses are no bargain...except in very rare cases



Is utter rubbish as stated imho.

[Charlie D]

A 3-2 that should be even money is just as good a bet as a 15-1 that should be 10-1.


Thats probably a bit tight Smoo, but the point your making is correct imho

[thaskalos]

See, there you go again, Why is it when people don't like what i say they resort to this kind of BS


Evens money shots win around 54% in UK and i would guess the rate is similar in US so saying this




Is utter rubbish as stated imho.When you say "there you go again" to me...what does it mean?

When have I EVER gotten into an argument with you?

I would NEVER consider calling your opinion RUBBISH Charlie...because I know nothing about you, or your handicapping prowess.

By calling my opinion "rubbish"...YOU are disrespecting ME. And yet...you spin it around as if it is ME who has insulted YOU!

Nobody in this game has it all figured out...and if you think that even money shots win 54% of the time in the USA...then you have a lot to learn about this game.

[Eddie W]

Because they think they have a good thing tell everybody about
there program, put there picks online and most of the time lose
because they want there names up in lights, when really they
should be trying to win....With-0ut there names in light

[Charlie D]

Evens money shots win around 54% in UK

Sorry, that should be evens and below.

[Charlie D]

When you say "there you go again" to me...what does it mean?

When have I EVER gotten into an argument with you?

I would NEVER consider calling your opinion RUBBISH Charlie...because I know nothing about you, or your handicapping prowess.

By calling my opinion "rubbish"...YOU are disrespecting ME. And yet...you spin it around as if it is ME who has insulted YOU!

Nobody in this game has it all figured out...and if you think that even money shots win 54% of the time in the USA...then you have a lot to learn about this game.


Excuse thaskalos, but it's you who seems to have started the BS remarks and it's you who seems to be implying your an expert and know everything with "i've been betting X number of years" .

Anyway, i'm done with you as i've had enough of people who can not debate/discuss topics without resorting to this kind of BS.

People can read the posts and make thier own decisions as to how to approach game.

All te best.

[thaskalos]

Excuse thaskalos, but it's you who seems to have started the BS remarks and it's you who seems to be implying your an expert and know everything with "i've been betting X number of years" .

Anyway, i'm done with you as i've had enough people who can not debate without resorting to this kind of BS.

People can read the posts and make thier own decisions as to how to approach game.Go back and read our posts again...and see who has the more bitter tone.

I was just stating my opinion...you were the one trying to correct me...as if you had this game all figured out.

The only BS remark I made was when you called my opinion "utter rubbish".

Enjoy your night.

[Charlie D]

Is this why you became such an advanced pace handicapper...and "match-up" enthusiast? In order to isolate on the even money shots


The start of your BS thaskalos and you know it.

And with that i'm done


All the best

[DeanT]

Not to get into this brou-haha too much.... but it is an interesting topic in this day and age (IMO).

Charlie is of course arguing that any overlay is an overlay; Thask is arguing that a 3-5 shot might be an overaly in his line, but the risk for the return (i.e. that his line is wrong, and with the changing odds board) does not pay off at low odds.

I agree with both of you of course!

But Thask, I could not agree more that lower odds horses, even if you *think* you are getting an overlay are a mugs game in this century. The computer teams own this part of the market and they set the odds. They are setting the odds with a 10% rebate in most cases. In addition, if a likely obvious horse, with all that perfect information out there (like there is on heavy chalk) is too high, you are probably the sucker.

I often read about "dumb money" when a chalk loses. But that is completely not the case. It might make us feel good when we bet against a heavy chalk like that and win, but the numbers are not on our side.

Take Zenyatta against St. T. She touched 4-5 on the board. There was 20,000 people at the track all wanting to bet Z, but she touched 4-5! One would think she would have been 1-9 with all that "dumb money". Clearly the big computer teams saw a good horse with a good chance to beat her - and the odds line was set accordingly. If we think the 'public ' is setting these lines, we are delusional, imo.

The point being - with low odds horses we are not getting an overlay almost ever, as a weekend warrior or casual bettor. Over time, we get raked to death on those horses, and it is much easier to see a gap in the lines in horses 3-1 to 10-1, so spending time on those looking for overlays is often a very good strategy.

All my opinion. But in this day and age I think it has some merit. It's not like 1970 anymore.

[Charlie D]

Charlie is of course arguing that any overlay is an overlay;


Correct Dean

But Thask, I could not agree more that lower odds horses, even if you *think* you are getting an overlay are a mugs game in this century.



Incorrect thinking Dean inho.


Edit to add

The point being - with low odds horses we are not getting an overlay almost ever,



Incorrect inho Dean, there are plenty of low odds horses going off as overlays and if your not seeing them your methodology probably needs a tweak or two.


All the best.

[Charlie D]

Dean

If i remember correctly QR was 1.37 on my tissue, but heavily bet at lower by some on Betfair.


Were these SHARP MINDS or MUG bettors backing QR iyo???

[DeanT]

Dean

If i remember correctly QR was 1.37 on my tissue, but heavily bet at lower by some on Betfair.


Were these SHARP MINDS or MUG bettors backing QR iyo???

There are tons of examples we can use, most certainly. If it works long term, it is a good strategy. I would never say anyone can not do it; that would be silly. There are many ways to win at the game.

I am using my personal betting experience and some chatter with other players who play the game with rebated bettors in mind.

I track all my win bets and have for years. I group even money and lower bets, even to 2-1 bets, 2-1 to 3-1 bets, 3-1 to 5-1 bets, 6-1 to 10-1, 10-1 to 20-1 and over 20-1 in a spreadsheet. It is amazing to me to watch the drop off in ROI under 2-1. I have tens of thousands of bets and it is clear as day.

So I asked Dave S and a few other players about it. The answer was "that is common", because the low end of the odds board is more perfectly accurate than the higher ends, and you are battling people who are getting 10 points back and betting huge money, down to fair. So, in effect, competing there is a crowded house, where I am taking a knife to a gun fight.

That is for me; if others are doing great with premier capping and selective plays or whatever, then great.

I often long for my old pal Dan G as we would get into chats here about racing, and respect people who were doing something (even show bettors or super-exotic players etc) that some of us were not, and doing well at it. We have strong opines as players that usually ends up with "if we can not do it, no one can". I take the opine that "there are plenty of ways to skin a cat in racing, and if you are doing something I am not and succeeding; well good for you!"

For me, this is a non-starter, and my data over years proves it. If someone else is betting 1-2 shots and showing long term ROI, I simply tip my cap, because in my opinion, it is very hard to do.

[Charlie D]

There are tons of examples we can use, most certainly. If it works long term, it is a good strategy. I would never say anyone can not do it; that would be silly. There are many ways to win at the game.





And now, i'm totally confused by and not uderstanding why you made this statement Dean


I could not agree more that lower odds horses, even if you *think* you are getting an overlay are a mugs game in this century

[Charlie D]

So I asked Dave S and a few other players about it. The answer was "that is common", because the low end of the odds board is more perfectly accurate than the higher ends, and you are battling people who are getting 10 points back and betting huge money, down to fair. So, in effect, competing there is a crowded house, where I am taking a knife to a gun fight.





Dean

If these dudes were so smart at forecasting would not the result be a higher % of winning favs than now?? Also, if these dudes are so smart, would not the rest be wasting thier time, as what we would probably see is 1-10 winner after 1-10 instead of evens winner , 3-2 , 2-1winners etc


KISS thinking Dean.

[Dave Schwartz]

If these dudes were so smart at forecasting would not the result be a higher % of winning favs than now??

Actually, the favorites' win percentage has gone up a little - almost 3 points.

And that's a lot, considering they see the world similarly to you and me.


Actually, Charlie, I agree with you. I see my "overlayed" odds-on horses showing a profit. albeit a very small one. I have a client who uses a strictly trainer-based approach. (He is unique in the availability of this approach in our software.) Essentially, he looks for a trainer that is "all go-signs" in a race with no other trainers being "all go."

His experience is 54% winners, with an average mutuel that nets him about 3%. On a typical card he will get a little over one bet. (There is no line involved.)

Having the system in front of me (an advantage of being the programmer) I tested several days of races. The sample I tested hit precisely 54% winners and showed a 1% edge. I am confident that had I continued the test I would see the 3% he described simply because this man has been a professional for so long.


But, like Dean, I also agree with Thaskalos. Imagine this player, wagering $500 per race, with (say) 20 bets per day. He lays out $10,000 to net $300. Now, I can see that as a great, consistent investment, but in order to feel that way you really need to be able to pop for $500 a horse. Somehow at $50 per horse ($30 daily profit) it feels like a waste of time.


I really liken this example to commercial fishing boats. Do you want to catch marlin or minnows? Or perhaps a more appropriate analogy would be to say that there are just some fish that aren't worth catching because of their size. Despite that, somebody, somewhere is making a living from small fish.


BTW, when it comes to whales, they typically do not make money when the low favorites come in. That means that all/most of the whales agreed, making it impossible for any of them to make money in the race.



I have advocated dutching as a viable approach for a long time. My usual approach was to play multiple horses, netting even-money or better. Obviously, my hit rate was high.

One day I was looking at a race that had a 2/5 favorite in the race that I did not like. As I structured my bet - probably 4 horses that would net me maybe 6/5 - I suddenly had an epiphany: This 2/5 favorite looks bad, but how bad can he be? If I figure him to be a $1.60 $net (i.e. -20% bet) and that is very bad for an odds-on horse, he still wins 57% of the time!

Where does that leave me trying to win money netting 6/5? I've got to win 45% just to be even and, if the favorite is going to win 57% there is only 43% left! (Not to mention that the horses I don't bet are certainly going to win some percentage of the time.)


My point is that there are certainly races where the low-priced, bad bet makes the rest of the race unplayable simply because they will win too often to fit your particular strategy. Yes, you can certainly have a different strategy, but many people find it simpler to just move their fishing boat to a different part of the ocean.


Just my opinion.

Dave

[DeanT]

Dave,

What would you recommend for a weekend warrior or newer player who wants to play win only?

Is it futile, with late odds changes, and no rebate to give them some direction to win long term. Or is there a spot you would recommend?

I, from chatting with many of you and with my own opinion, would recommend the 3-1 to 7-1 ranges, with a field size of 8 or more. Simple reason: A little better chance at finding an overlay, and the hit rate would be high enough to keep you sane.

I wonder, in the absence of dutching, or building a trading plan on an exchange or other fixed odds mechanism, what you would recommend.

D

[Charlie D]

But, like Dean, I also agree with Thaskalos. Imagine this player, wagering $500 per race, with (say) 20 bets per day. He lays out $10,000 to net $300. Now, I can see that as a great, consistent investment, but in order to feel that way you really need to be able to pop for $500 a horse. Somehow at $50 per horse ($30 daily profit) it feels like a waste of time.





Dave, but making money is not a waste on time though is it?? If we multiply that $30 daily profit by 365 days, you've got a nice little earner going on have you not??

[Charlie D]

As you know we are probably not going to win everyday, but if you profit from this strategy to the tune of say 3/4/5K over a year you've not wasted your time, in fact, you are WINNER unlike the majority out there in betting land.

You can use this profit to increase stakes and if you continue in a similar vien, you'll be the next guy betting $500 a race that Dave mentioned.

[46zilzal]

I see the same poor slobs each weekend: they have 5 tip sheets and the newspaper and they are switching (while trying to handicap in the noise of the track) standard breds & T-bred short and long on turf and poly in New York Florida and California all at the same time.

They spend ZERO time on evaluating a line or in wager creation, YET they somehow keep coming back yelling that the trainers and owners have it "fixed."

If they think that why play?

And these same out of touch fellows come up to the computer screen all the time telling our group that we don't know what WE are doing...It is pitiful.

[Fastracehorse]

The handicapping authors are partly to blame for the misfortunes of the players, IMO.

Since their main motive is to sell as many books as possible...they downplay the inherent difficulties of this game...making it appear a lot easier than it really is.

Outrageous claims, and carefully chosen race examples, make these authors look like geniouses...and, as a result, beginning players copy their playing methods, and head to the track with very unrealistic expectations.

Our game comes equipped with heartbreaking losses, and head-spinning losing streaks...and the only players who profit, are the ones who have learned how to win the ongoing battle against their own emotions.

Unfortunately...that knowledge can take many years to aquire...and cannot be taught in any book.


.........if U are a seasoned player U can handle the 'cruelness' of the game alot better; it must be more stressful than we realize; the game can actually snatch well deserved money right from your hands.

Next time you win from a fortuitous happenstance: Tell yourself you deserve it - because you do!

fffastt

[jamey1977]

The handicapping authors are partly to blame for the misfortunes of the players, IMO.

Since their main motive is to sell as many books as possible...they downplay the inherent difficulties of this game...making it appear a lot easier than it really is.

Outrageous claims, and carefully chosen race examples, make these authors look like geniouses...and, as a result, beginning players copy their playing methods, and head to the track with very unrealistic expectations.

Our game comes equipped with heartbreaking losses, and head-spinning losing streaks...and the only players who profit, are the ones who have learned how to win the ongoing battle against their own emotions.

Unfortunately...that knowledge can take many years to aquire...and cannot be taught in any book.
This game sucks. I tried to win half at 6 dollars. In my tests. I can't. Too many variables. Wow. I can make 1000 rules and still lose. I have tested the overlays. In my overlay tests with just 15 rules. Not 1000. It is possible to obtain a 20 to 30 percent profit. It can be done. But damn, in my tests. I did runs for 3 months, on 3 circuits at the same time. New York, North. And South Calif. I play all 3. I got the plays out but the losing streaks were awful. I lost 13 in a row over 3 days. I mean how the hell is someone going to take that ? . And you wait for races for your race and you bet your horse and the other contender comes in.! It just comes to the point. We are setting ourselves up to get our butts kicked. The Overlays can turn a profit. It can be done. Overlay was right. He gets Kudos from me. Winning Half at 6 dollars. Not In This Life.

[classhandicapper]

The game is tough because we are often working with incomplete or inaccurate information and a less than perfect understanding of the situation, type of race, issues in the race etc...

Sometimes we are competing with people that have a better combination of both in that specific situation. But our egos tend to make us think that all our information is accurate and complete and we understand everything. So what we perceive to be underlays or overlays are sometimes perfectly efficient odds.

That's what makes it tough.

To overcome that, you have to limit yourself to situations that you know you understand well and where you know you know something that the general public and perhaps even other high level handicappers do not.

For example, I know that I'm not as good a turf handicapper as I am a dirt handicapper and also know a major weakness in my game is pedigree and the associated values of that kind of information.

So you'll never see me play a turf race with a lot of 1st time starters and/or 1st time turfers. However, I also know that turf and dirt speed figures do not translate well and some very informed handicappers in the public eye do not grasp that as well as I do. So I sometimes have opportunities on surface switches where the horses have clear form on both surfaces because I know other people are misunderstanding their surface preferences, performances, and current form based on figures that do not translate.

[Tom]

If they think that why play?

Entertainment?
We need to cultivate this group. We need these people.

[WinterTriangle]

I have a tape of the alpha sound to put my brain in alpha when I handicap

The zebra in the movie Racing Stripes would hear African drums and singing from his native land. Worked for him!:D

[BUD]

I was lucky to read the same Sh1t early as everyone----Then After My Struggle-Stagnet straggle---I Got some help-----Early -Very early in that help I jumped
around to my freakin folly- The Wind Blew a Winner this way--Im On it-----

I stopped that------Stayed with my Helps System---Learned to think like that--
Learned to implement My best---Rid my worst------

I will Piss off some---SORRY-----But Its a Fu#*N Pleasure to wake and play this Great Game---

Yep I Lose----Yes I win----------Me? Im a Li'l Fish at a BIG Window-------

I Still Love My Hommies Tips when I get them too-----

I guess what I am saying----In my short time---I learned to stick with a sytem-
If you think the Game sux your Perception rules---Stop playing------Its Freaking Fun when you can play with or against others-------The Most Fun Playing with someone-----Punt- only what you can afford------

The State of Affairs Sux EVERYWHERE so Escape in the game---Focus on the positive and fuc--k the negative-------Life way to damned short---I Know-

Im Really not preaching-Thanking many---And Thanking this Awesome Game.