Public Handicappers

[Trotman]

Because the forum has so many opinions and they certainly have been around lets throw out 6 names and only voice opinions on these 6 handicappers.
John Conte, Noel Michaels, John Piesen, Gasper Moschera,
Jerry Antonucci, Jim Hurley. Do you give em a :ThmbUp: or a :ThmbDown:

[Trotman]

The silence is speaking volumes, which I kind of had an idea it would.

[Robert Goren]

Most of the people who post here do their own handicapping.

[Trotman]

RG we know that, just wanted to know if anyone has been approached by these low life backroom tipsters with their so called inside info like a friend of mine was. They actually called him and he dosen't know how they got his number. He said it was like one of those football pick callers just won't take a no and he hung up only to get another call a few minutes later from some thug.

[Actor]

***RING***

Hello.

"Mr. Actor?"

Yes.

"This is Joe at WePickEm. I want to thank you for being one of our valued clients. Tell me, Mr. Actor, what is your betting level?"

Oh, I'm a $2 better.

"You subscribe to our service and only bet $2?"

Oh, that. Here's the thing. I'm working on my Ph.D. in actuarial science and my thesis is whether statistics can make betting at the track profitable. My thesis adviser insists that I include a survey of public selectors in my paper. That's why I subscribed to your service. I never take your advice.

***click***

[jamey1977]

RG we know that, just wanted to know if anyone has been approached by these low life backroom tipsters with their so called inside info like a friend of mine was. They actually called him and he dosen't know how they got his number. He said it was like one of those football pick callers just won't take a no and he hung up only to get another call a few minutes later from some thug.
You guys put all of your money on someone's opinions ? I have followed them all. They screw up so much, you are better off, going on your own. That way if you fail, you can blame yourself . It's better that way. You learn more and you can go back and review your own methods and revise them. Who the hell knows how they get their final selections ? , Who cares ? . Go on your own. It's better.

[xfile]

Because the forum has so many opinions and they certainly have been around lets throw out 6 names and only voice opinions on these 6 handicappers.
John Conte, Noel Michaels, John Piesen, Gasper Moschera,
Jerry Antonucci, Jim Hurley. Do you give em a :ThmbUp: or a :ThmbDown:
Didn't one of these guys win the $500,000 prize in the big handicapping contest last year? 1/2 million dollars. Conte I think it was.

[KidCapper]

John Conte won the DRF / NTRA National Handicapping Championship X in 2009.


http://www1.drf.com/news/article/101293.html

[GameTheory]

I actually liked the Gasman's book. But I would never use any service.

[GaryG]

Jerry A had recent health problems and is retired. I wish him nothing but the best.

[rispa]

'Jamey1977', who exactly have you followed?

[46zilzal]

I know personally, a DRF trackman, two newspaper handicappers as well as a few nationally. ALL say the same things: we have to do several tracks a day as well as other writings, we don't have the ability to cap the field after scratches or when the weather changes are apparent (bias developing during a program) so there are huge obstacles to overcome.

Given all these road blocks, is it a wonder they do as well as they do???

[mistergee]

Hate to admit it but not this year, but the year before I took a stab because I was familiar with his name as a trainer and purchased the "road to the derby" selections for all the pre derby races form Moschera. I can tell you that at least for that series of about a dozen races the results were horrifying. He maybe had one chalk winner from the dozen or so races selected.

[JimG]

When John Conte won the NHC in 09, he stated in an interview immediately thereafter that the 500,000 win "may" have gotten him even on horseplaying for life. Since I was there and watching the interview live, I did not get the impression he was kidding. He was grateful.

Are you sure you want to pay for his picks?

[exiles]

John Conte won the DRF / NTRA National Handicapping Championship X in 2009.


http://www1.drf.com/news/article/101293.html


Yeah and my aunt Mollie won the lottery for $500000, what doe's J. Conte and my aunt have in common?

[pandy]

There are legitimate public handicappers, like myself, The Wizard (Mike Kipness), National Turf, etc. The guys you mention decided to hook up with the scamdicapper outfits and it's very unlikely that they actually do any handicappping. There are untold horror stories about people where got suckered by these boiler room businesses, which operate on the fringe of legality.

[Trotman]

Pandy my appologies you my friend are a standup guy and I know many who use your software and are very happy with it, and yes a public handicapper.Never think for a minute any ill thoughts from me. But as you answered and a few others this is what I was trying to bring to the forefront with the original post. And now it's coming out, as you said they operate on the fringe of legality with probably phony names whether it is or isn't Kelso Sturgeon
come on give me a break :bang: the Fu**er is so full of it he has to use a great horses name to make him sound legit. National Race Masters :lol: :lol: :lol:

[castaway01]

I don't think you could take EVERY pick from most handicappers, much less public handicappers who have to make their selections without knowing scratches, track conditions, etc., and expect them to be profitable. That seems like Logic 101 to me.

I will say that the sharpest guys give you tidbits that help. For example, Craig Donnelly, who handicapped Philly Park, Delaware, and NJ (when Garden State was around) for 30 years and now has a website where you can pay a few bucks a day for his advice, is a sharp guy who follows the races closely. Reading what he wrote in the paper would help you, but obviously when everyone was reading it, the financial value was limited. Doesn't mean he's clueless or a con artist, just that information everyone can read is only worth so much.

[pandy]

Again, there's a huge difference between public/professional handicappers and boiler room operations. The boiler room business is all about trying to seduce you with a winner, then turning around and trying to sell you a bogus higher-priced service, which is the same service. Oldest scam in the books, started with sports. If 100 people buy your NFL game of the week for $100, give one team to 50 and the other team to 50, then call the 50 players who win and tell them that you have the "lock of the century" next week, but it's not $100, it will cost you $500. After a while the customer base is bound to decrease as they realize your picks are terrible, so these scamdicappers just keep advertising looking for new suckers.

[Trotman]

And thank ATM for every month they send you a whole new list to choose from.

[jk3521]

According to the story in the DRF ,Conte was in eleventh place and got lucky by picking a long shot in the final race of the contest.

[jamey1977]

'Jamey1977', who exactly have you followed?
I followed Winners Card -Turrell- For 2 years, No profit. Did everything, handicapped the top picks threw out the lousy ones, still no profit. Did everything, nothing. Have kept track of the D.R.F selectors for 3 years betting everything. No profit. It came down to either bet the horse or eliminate him, Just like musical chairs. That's why I always said it's better to go on our own. Because some people are keeping secrets to themselves. We have to find the secrets. Bob Mieszerski, I came real close to profiting. I made money one month in 2004. With Bob, he was the only one who can give us a shot. Take his top picks and try to eliminate the lousy ones. His service is 10 dollars a day. But it is still extremely difficult to profit. Because they don't tell us how they get their picks and we can't research either. Bob Mieszerski has shown a flat bet profit through complete meets in Southern California about 9 times in the past 6 years. Pretty impressive when public handicappers have to bet every single race. I followed Karlik, Duke, whoever Duke is. Just nothing. Mieszerski, I came the closest to actually achieving the goal.

[xfile]

It's not about picking winners. The real secret to success in this game is in the overlay (Like Barry Meadow wrote about many years ago - he was ahead of and still is ahead of his time). Public guys get paid to make picks of who should win each race. Not make you a profit.

[RaceBookJoe]

I would never pay anyone for picks...i handicap because i love to handicap. Having said that, every now and then i will read what an analyst in the form writes or i will read what Nick Tammaro from capital otb writes ( never before i handicap )....not for picks but for info i overlooked or didnt have access to...ie sire 1st out winner %. rbj

[exiles]

According to the story in the DRF ,Conte was in eleventh place and got lucky by picking a long shot in the final race of the contest.

Exactly my point.

[Trotman]

Exiles Lady Luck at one time or another kisses us all

[thaskalos]

Exiles Lady Luck at one time or another kisses us allYeah...but some of us only get a little peck on the cheek...

[Trotman]

:lol: true

[jelly]

I followed Winners Card -Turrell- For 2 years, No profit. Did everything, handicapped the top picks threw out the lousy ones, still no profit. Did everything, nothing. Have kept track of the D.R.F selectors for 3 years betting everything. No profit. It came down to either bet the horse or eliminate him, Just like musical chairs. That's why I always said it's better to go on our own. Because some people are keeping secrets to themselves. We have to find the secrets. Bob Mieszerski, I came real close to profiting. I made money one month in 2004. With Bob, he was the only one who can give us a shot. Take his top picks and try to eliminate the lousy ones. His service is 10 dollars a day. But it is still extremely difficult to profit. Because they don't tell us how they get their picks and we can't research either. Bob Mieszerski has shown a flat bet profit through complete meets in Southern California about 9 times in the past 6 years. Pretty impressive when public handicappers have to bet every single race. I followed Karlik, Duke, whoever Duke is. Just nothing. Mieszerski, I came the closest to actually achieving the goal.



One of the many useless things in the DRF.

[billyball]

Here is what John Conte said after the win in 2009.


“My whole life has been a series of wouldas, couldas, shouldas,” said Conte, who has been married 21 years to his wife Arlene and has six children and 10 grandchildren. “I finally made it to the winner’s circle. If I win five more of these contests, I might be even!”


Looks like Three Million might make him whole.


http://horseracinginsider.com/Press-Release/comments/new/yorker-john-conte-captures-drf-national-handicapping-championship/

[Bobzilla]

I can't speak to Trotman's concerns about the bad experience his friend had when pressured during a hard call. I'm sorry to hear it as I'd hate to think these guys would allow themselves to be associated with anything unscrupulous. I do know that Michaels is, or was, the director of player development at Nassau OTB and that his daily picks, as well as those of the others listed, were available on the Nassau OTB website. Michaels is also the author of Handicapping Contests Handbook.

What may be of interest to those who understand how difficult it is to demonstrate consistancy in tournament play is that both Conte and Michaels represented themselves well during the most recent contest at Belmont this past June. Michaels, who had won the Keeneland tournament this past December while earning a berth to the NHC, was the Day one leader of the Belmont event and was able to do well enough on Day 2 to finish second, earning himself another trip to LV. Conte didn't have a good Day 1 but outscored all of his competitors on Day 2 to pull himself to a respectable 6th place finish for the two day tourney. Actually there were many media members in the hunt to take down the top prize at Belmont this year. Well known handicapper Dave Gutfreund (The Maven) won the event. Some may remember him as being one of the colour commentators during the few years ESPN2 provided a small amount of coverage for the NHC. Long-time public handicapper for The Star-Ledger and past NHC champion Ron Rippey also was in the mix and finished towards the top. I believe 5th but I could be wrong.

[rusrious]

Many say they WOULDNT pay for picks. But, what if someone was right 85% of the time, how much would YOU pay for the picks then?

[Bobzilla]

Many say they WOULDNT pay for picks. But, what if someone was right 85% of the time, how much would YOU pay for the picks then?


It's hard for me to imagine any professional tout who could produce an 85% hit rate ever wanting to sell his picks. Actually it's difficult for me to accept any handicapper producing that kind of strike rate period. Hypothetically, if this were even possible I wouldn't pay anything for them. Aside from taking satisfaction in doing my own work, I would think that a tout this successful would dramitically lower his own prices to the point where there would be no value at all.

[pandy]

I'll tell you something that many people don't realize. When a handicapper shows a consistent flat bet profit, you will not see anyone mention that on this or any forum because players want to protect the odds. Today the pools are smaller than ever so this is even more critical. Think of yourself, say that you subscribed to a touts service a year ago and you have shown a nice profit. Would you go on this forum and say, "Hey, this guy is great, everyone should sign up!" No, you wouldn't, because with a few hundred more people betting the same picks you would no longer be showing a profit.

[markgoldie]

I'll tell you something that many people don't realize. When a handicapper shows a consistent flat bet profit, you will not see anyone mention that on this or any forum because players want to protect the odds. Today the pools are smaller than ever so this is even more critical. Think of yourself, say that you subscribed to a touts service a year ago and you have shown a nice profit. Would you go on this forum and say, "Hey, this guy is great, everyone should sign up!" No, you wouldn't, because with a few hundred more people betting the same picks you would no longer be showing a profit.
Bob:

Understand what you are saying, but doesn't this hold for the handicapper who gives out the picks as well? For example, if you sell your picks for X dollars, it stands to reason that each satisfied client will certainly bet more than enough to recover his costs for the selections. And since each client will be doing the same, logic dictates that it is impossible for the handicapper to make as much selling the picks as he would betting them himself because the aggregate actions might soon make the picks unprofitable.

So I therefore have an inescapable conundrum when it comes to anybody who claims to sell winning picks. The condrum is: (1) He must be very, very smart in order to beat the game; (2) He is smart enough and values money enough such that he realizes that his picks are worth something to others- that they are marketable; (3) That he goes through the trouble to set up marketing for his picks (wherther he does this himself or pays a third party to do it for him); BUT (4) He is so dumb that he doesn't realize he could make far more money playing his own selections than he possibly can marketing them.

I have a hard time believing that this combination of brilliance and idiocy coexists in the same person.

[thaskalos]

A tiny minority of the touts may show a small profit on their picks...but they find that their race track profits are too unreliable...and so they trade-in this extra profitability, for the "security" that their regular-paying customers provide.

[pandy]

I've never wanted to be a professional gambler who relies solely on betting with no other source of income. I've always wanted to be a professional handicapper who supplements his income with betting. Maybe that's small thinking on my part but when I was young and raising a family the idea of quitting my job to become a full time gambler seemed pretty crazy.

In my opinion, there are very few professional gamblers who don't have another source of income, too much pressure. I know bettors who call themselves pros, but they have other income from real estate investments, inheritance, etc., they do not actually have only one source of income. Some people think that guys like Gary Fotias, Andy Beyer, Len Freidman, for example, are pro bettors, but they all make money from selling handicapping services, and from what I've heard, they are all very good gamblers, too.

Of course, things are changing. Years ago I had a streak of 7 years in a row where my harness Best Bets at the NY tracks show a flat bet profit of 25% on the dollar, to win. The fact that I gave the picks out to the public was inconsequential because the pools were huge. I had one Best Bet pay $71.00 at Yonkers. But now the pools are small, so your point is well taken when you look at the dwindling pools.

[thaskalos]

It's one thing to provide figures - like in the cases of people like Beyer, Fotias, and Ragozin...and another thing to sell your plays.

Figures are "raw tools", and they still have to be interpreted before final selections can be made. Handicappers can buy the same set of figures...and still end up betting on different horses.

A tout selling his final selections for a $10 phone call...can hardly be viewed with credibility, IMO.

[pandy]

I agree with your prior post about touts who show a profit but also want the security, but not with this latest post because Beyer, and the other guys did in fact give up some profitability when they made their numbers available to the masses. So did Freidman/Ragozin, and others. Yet they still bet. Fotias sheets actually point to his key "new pace top" and "cyclical pace top" plays and there's no doubt that his clients are now betting on many of the same horses that he claims are his bread and butter plays.

[Greyfox]

Figures are "raw tools", and they still have to be interpreted before final selections can be made. Handicappers can buy the same set of figures...and still end up betting on different horses.

.

:ThmbUp: That bears repeating over and over.

[Trotman]

Bobzilla I don't know if I agree with you or not just because of certain names that we're associated with contests DRF books and all the rest. The fact is he has had a call from each and every one of them almost daily, or at least they say that is who they are.Fred needs no one to pick winners for him as he does quite well, nothing earth shattering but he keeps himself in the black. He uses a software program with Bris files and only started back with the horses a few years ago after his wife died to keep himself busy. I guess what I was trying to say is that here is this gentleman who does not chat on line but bought his software and buys his files online and some how these blood suckers got his number and have disrupted his life this past week that today we called the phone company to have his number changed. The phone company was very good about it and said they would investigate where the calls came from and there would be no fee as is normal to change the number because of the circumstances. This really bothered him and the calls would come mid day late at night and the worst one was at dinner time when a guy claming to be Gasper Moschera after asking for Fred then told him to put his fork down and listen real careful to what he has to say in this gruff voice and when Fred said just leave him alone the guy says he'll be sorry and hangs up. I'm upset about all this I'd like to get a hold of this pimp tipster and ring his f*****g neck.

[atlasaxis]

I hear what you're saying Trotman. In this day and age of info accessability (including phone numbers), I'm sure we all get our share of phone calls (wrong numbers, tele-marketers, etc). I'm to the point just short of changing my number that if I don't recognize the number, it goes to voice mail. Business I use 2 different answering machines. One is I'm in the office but with a client, leave a message and I'll return your call within 5 minutes. The other is I'm out of the office, leave a message and I'll retuirn your call asap. Home and cell just say leave a message and I'll get back to you asap.

At one time I'll admit to calling one of those you listed a few years back (not Noel. I know him personally, he's a stand up guy). I made the mistake of answering once when one of his workers called to get me buy another service and was working it big time. After he finally took a breath I thanked him for his previous services that I purchased but informed him that I had picked up a piece of software and had all of the winners that they had given me (3) plus 2 more double digit monsters they mad missed so I'll no longer have need of your services. Thank you very much and hung up. They did call a few more times over the next few months but voice mail picked it up and I just deleted it. It's been quite a while since I've heard from him. Watch, I'll probably get a call over the weekend :)

[Trotman]

atlasaxis I can buy that he is a standup guy, then maybe is it possible guys like Noel have no idea it's going on. These pimps that are doing the calling could make it rough for him.

[PaceAdvantage]

Bobzilla I don't know if I agree with you or not just because of certain names that we're associated with contests DRF books and all the rest. The fact is he has had a call from each and every one of them almost daily, or at least they say that is who they are.Fred needs no one to pick winners for him as he does quite well, nothing earth shattering but he keeps himself in the black. He uses a software program with Bris files and only started back with the horses a few years ago after his wife died to keep himself busy. I guess what I was trying to say is that here is this gentleman who does not chat on line but bought his software and buys his files online and some how these blood suckers got his number and have disrupted his life this past week that today we called the phone company to have his number changed. The phone company was very good about it and said they would investigate where the calls came from and there would be no fee as is normal to change the number because of the circumstances. This really bothered him and the calls would come mid day late at night and the worst one was at dinner time when a guy claming to be Gasper Moschera after asking for Fred then told him to put his fork down and listen real careful to what he has to say in this gruff voice and when Fred said just leave him alone the guy says he'll be sorry and hangs up. I'm upset about all this I'd like to get a hold of this pimp tipster and ring his f*****g neck.I find this all a little hard to believe.

[Bobzilla]

Bobzilla I don't know if I agree with you or not just because of certain names that we're associated with contests DRF books and all the rest. .

I feel sorry for your friend if all of this is true. All I was saying before is that it's disappointing to think that any of the people mentioned would be personally involved with calling folks while at home and trying to drum up business in an overly pushy way. I'm on a nocall list which helps quite a bit but it doesn't screen out everyone. I don't even like to answer the phone unless I recognize the number/name. If not I'll get back at my convenience. I thought you may have been asking what other readers knew about these guys so I brought up the consistancy of a few of them in major tournaments in recent years. I agree with you on the topic of phone harassment and I feel bad for your friend.

[markgoldie]

I've never wanted to be a professional gambler who relies solely on betting with no other source of income. I've always wanted to be a professional handicapper who supplements his income with betting. Maybe that's small thinking on my part but when I was young and raising a family the idea of quitting my job to become a full time gambler seemed pretty crazy.

In my opinion, there are very few professional gamblers who don't have another source of income, too much pressure. I know bettors who call themselves pros, but they have other income from real estate investments, inheritance, etc., they do not actually have only one source of income. Some people think that guys like Gary Fotias, Andy Beyer, Len Freidman, for example, are pro bettors, but they all make money from selling handicapping services, and from what I've heard, they are all very good gamblers, too.

Of course, things are changing. Years ago I had a streak of 7 years in a row where my harness Best Bets at the NY tracks show a flat bet profit of 25% on the dollar, to win. The fact that I gave the picks out to the public was inconsequential because the pools were huge. I had one Best Bet pay $71.00 at Yonkers. But now the pools are small, so your point is well taken when you look at the dwindling pools.
What you needed was a partner/financier during the halcyon days. He would have provided the sufficient capital to maximize the profits from your selections and you would provide the picks. This would have removed the financial pressures from you and I quite sure would have made you tons more money. With such an arrangement, the sum total of all price-value degradation through invested action would have accrued to you and your partner by way of profits and not to the players who were paying the (I'm assuming) nominal fee you were getting for making the selections public.

[pandy]

Obviously when these guys sell out they go for the money with no regard for their reputation at all. They rationalize it as, "it's just business." Unfortunately, there are many business people in all types of businesses who do the same thing, just as the thread running on this site about the car dealers, many of which also walk a fine line between honest and unethical business tactics.

[Trotman]

Pa I picked up Fred's extension the other day when we came back from coffee when supposedly it was Kelso Sturgeon that was on the other end. The voice sounded too young and too pushy. When I jumped in and said who is this all the fellow said was have a good day and hung up. But for your satisfaction call them up they call themselves National Race Masters and wait for the boiler room to call you.

[PaceAdvantage]

Pa I picked up Fred's extension the other day when we came back from coffee when supposedly it was Kelso Sturgeon that was on the other end. The voice sounded too young and too pushy. When I jumped in and said who is this all the fellow said was have a good day and hung up. But for your satisfaction call them up they call themselves National Race Masters and wait for the boiler room to call you.Sounds like someone is pulling your friend's leg to me...

[Trotman]

PA better yet here is the number the phone company got from the search 1-888-***-**** give them a call and ask for anyone of them