BELMONT is here. I have a Question:

[John]

Hi Guys.
At BELMONT, can any of you who have data bases tell me what profiles and what models I should be look for. Or is it the same old ,same old. You know. early speed in sprints and closer in routes and Turf. I would like to set up my spreadsheets for the best models.

Anyone out there that can advise me . I will sincerely appreciate your Help.

Thanks rockajack

[GR1@HTR]

WIN Bias/Profile 365 day Summary for BEL
Dist/S Races FldSz Bias Wire-wire 123-Early Energy% Ins Out
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
4.5D+ 17 7.2 +4 71% 88% 51.94 53% 12%
5.5D 11 7.6 +2 36% 82% 51.76 36% 27%
6.0D 142 8.1 0 25% 63% 51.85 28% 30%
6.5D 35 7.7 0 20% 60% 52.00 31% 20%
7.0D+ 99 8.1 0 26% 56% 51.98 26% 35%
D Spr 304 8.0 0 28% 62% 51.91 30% 30%
W Spr 60 6.8 +2 40% 80% 52.38 35% 32%

8.0D+ 69 7.4 0 28% 70% 51.97 33% 23%
8.5D 65 7.4 0 22% 65% 51.74 26% 31%
9.0D 19 7.5 +2 26% 79% 51.53 32% 26%
9.5D+ 8 6.9 +2 25% 75% 51.25 38% 50%
D Rte 161 7.4 0 25% 69% 51.79 30% 28%
W Rte 52 7.3 +2 33% 69% 52.00 37% 38%

T Spr 6 9.7 0 17% 50% 51.03 00% 17%

8.0T 77 9.8 -2 13% 44% 50.58 30% 19%
8.5T 51 9.2 -2 18% 39% 50.60 24% 22%
9.0T 56 9.5 -1 18% 54% 49.88 13% 20%
9.5T+ 45 9.2 -2 13% 49% 49.34 22% 20%
T Rte 229 9.5 -2 15% 46% 50.17 23% 20%
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
BEL Mon Sep 03 2001 10:48PM


Bias Ratings
------------
+5 = Extreme Early Bias (rare)
+4 = Dominant Early Bias
+3 = Strong Early Bias
+2 = Moderate Early Bias
+1 = Slight Early Bias
0 = No Bias (fair to all running styles)
-1 = Slight Late Bias
-2 = Moderate Late Bias _
-3 = Strong Late Bias _
-4 = Dominant Late Bias _
-5 = Extreme Late Bias (rare) _
_
Distance Key _
------------ _
4.5+ = 4.5f and/or 5.0f races _
7.0+ = 7.0f and/or 7.5f races _
8.0+ = 8.0f and/or 8.2f, 8.3f races _
9.5+ = 9.5f and/or 10.0f, 11.0f, 12.0f races _
D Spr = All Fast-Dirt Sprints _
W Spr = All Wet-Dirt Sprints _
D Rte = All Fast-Dirt Routes _
W Rte = All Wet-Dirt Routes _
T Spr = All Turf Sprints
T Rte = All Turf Routes
----------------------------------------------------------------------------+

¦ PLACE Bias/Profile 365 day Summary for BEL
Dist/S Races FldSz Bias Wire- 2nd 123-Early Energy% Ins Out _
------------------------------------------------------------------------- _
4.5D+ 17 7.2 0 06% 71% 51.35 00% 53% _
5.5D 11 7.6 -2 09% 45% 51.10 36% 27% _
6.0D 142 8.1 0 27% 59% 51.79 26% 25% _
6.5D 35 7.7 -1 20% 54% 51.82 37% 17% _
7.0D+ 99 8.1 -2 14% 47% 51.81 22% 26% _
D Spr 304 8.0 -1 20% 55% 51.75 25% 26% _
W Spr 60 6.8 -1 17% 57% 52.04 32% 38% _
_
8.0D+ 69 7.4 -1 20% 55% 51.66 29% 26% _
8.5D 65 7.4 -2 12% 51% 51.59 38% 23% _
9.0D 19 7.5 0 21% 68% 51.40 26% 42% _
9.5D+ 8 6.9 -3 13% 38% 50.96 00% 63% _
D Rte 161 7.4 -1 17% 54% 51.57 31% 29% _
W Rte 52 7.3 -2 12% 46% 51.85 33% 29% _
_
T Spr 6 9.7 -3 17% 50% 50.67 17% 17%

8.0T 77 9.8 -2 18% 36% 50.49 32% 13%
8.5T 51 9.2 -2 12% 37% 50.52 31% 12%
9.0T 56 9.5 -2 13% 34% 49.73 29% 16%
9.5T+ 45 9.2 -2 13% 40% 49.41 33% 16%
T Rte 229 9.5 -2 14% 37% 50.10 31% 14%
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
BEL Mon Sep 03 2001 10:50PM

[John]

GR1, Thanks very much !!!

What you gave me is better than I expected.

I owe you one my friend.

rocajack

P.S. Could you explain, Energy % and INS to me. I have a thick scull.

[GR1@HTR]

RocaJack,

You are welcome. Be cautious as the data above is for the last 365 days. As you know, what happens in the spring meet might be different than what happens in the fall. And what happens last year or last month may not be how the track runs today or for the next week. I wouldn't pay much attention the the %Early stuff unless you are into Sartin Figs. Additional definitions below:
Wire to wire = percent that led all the way. _¦
123 Early = percent of winners (or place) that were positioned 1-2-3 early _¦
Energy% = Average early energy% of the winners (or place). _¦
Ins = Inside (2) post position percentage of winners (or place). _¦
Out = Outside (2) post position percent of winners (or place). _¦

[John]

GR1, Thanks a millon. Say Hello to Steve for me....

rocajack

[Tom]

Be aware of how the turf course is playing-last year, there was one day that had an extreme early bias. The bad news was that everything closing lost (the ones I played). The good news is that a lot of them came back at good odds within the next month.

Tom 522

[John]

Tom,
Thanks , That is a good piece of information. I will work that in with GR1 excellent profile sheet.

rocajack

[Rick Ransom]

GR1,

Have you ever studied how these things hold up from one meet to the next? I've seen the most amazing changes in track bias occur from year to year and Belmont is one of them that seems among the most inconsistent.

[GR1@HTR]

Rick,

I have not truly studied it but yeah, sure does seem to change quite a bit from meet to meet. I recall about 2 years ago, the mighty Retama Park was a superhighway for early speed. Not any more.