Best program for Odds Line ?

[big frank]

Hi , I am looking for a program that makes a solid odds line.. Any ideas ?

[thoroughbred]

Hi , I am looking for a program that makes a solid odds line.. Any ideas ?

Big Frank,

Are you looking for a program to make your own odds line, or a handicapping program, that uses its results to analyze and create one?

Rube

[JimG]

By solid odds line, you mean the most likely winner on top, etc., the public odds are the best.

If you mean an out of the box line that can give you solid overlays high on the line I know of two that I have used over the years that do this well "out of the box". Capsheet, and Black Magic, the ultimate handicapper. The developer of Capsheet died several years ago and unfortunately his program is dying with it. Black Magic is very expensive if you are only a casual player.

Other programs such as JCapper also gives a good oddsline for overlays with user tweaking. A Plus 10.0 does as well. I would guess HTR and HSH also give a good oddsline but I have used neither for several years.

If you have questions about specific programs I have mentioned, be sure to use the search feature as all of these have been talked about in the past here at Pace Advantage.

Jim

[Tom]

Doesn't Multicaps generate an odds line?

[fast4522]

Has anyone evaluated HandiFasts fair odds?

[Greyfox]

Years ago I built a computer program and incorporated the ideas outlined in
the late Dick Mitchell's book Winning Thoroughbred Strategies.
It was excellent. I later built a second program that did not include his formulas, but many times I wish that I had.

http://g-ecx.images-amazon.com/images/G/01/ciu/58/1f/4d1a62e89da07f34ca5f3110.L._SL500_AA300_.jpg

It's available quite cheap at:

http://www.amazon.com/Winning-Thoroughbred-Strategies-Dick-Mitchell/dp/068807913X

[thoroughbred]

Hi , I am looking for a program that makes a solid odds line.. Any ideas ?

Big Frank,

If you are looking for a handicapping program that includes an oddsline, CompuTrak does that.

This oddsline is what Brad Free used when he obtained the CompuTrak test results that he wrote about in his DRF column. He only chose the horse with the lowest, (best), CompuTrak odds.

You can view his column and see the results he obtained at:

www.revelationprofits.com

Rube

[Jingle]

Tom

Yes, Multicaps does include various oddslines including an Ability, FPS, TPR, etc. The Ability oddsline is the default and probably the best although you do get many double-digit payoffs with the TPR and FPS oddslines.

[fast4522]

Years ago I built a computer program and incorporated the ideas outlined in
the late Dick Mitchell's book Winning Thoroughbred Strategies.
It was excellent. I later built a second program that did not include his formulas, but many times I wish that I had.

http://g-ecx.images-amazon.com/images/G/01/ciu/58/1f/4d1a62e89da07f34ca5f3110.L._SL500_AA300_.jpg

It's available quite cheap at:

http://www.amazon.com/Winning-Thoroughbred-Strategies-Dick-Mitchell/dp/068807913X



Your post made me look in my cellar today and pick it out of my racing boxes.

[Big Bill]

Greyfox,

I have two of Mitchell's books. One contained a program in the back of the book, written in a generic basic language. Did you use any of that program when you wrote your program, or did you use a different language?

Big Bill

[headhawg]

I've incorporated versions of C-C, P-S, and Mitchell's Power ratings from WTS into Handifast. The odds line that it generates isn't purely based on those factors but it might be worth a look-see as it's free.

[AAcoolguy]

Using the Mitchell power ratings from Handifast and the directions for odds line creation from WTS, it can be done manually pretty easily. I've done it a few times, it would be nice to have it programmed though. Actually you can use just about any figures with the odds line creation directions from WTS and come up with a pretty good odds line.

[fast4522]

I've incorporated versions of C-C, P-S, and Mitchell's Power ratings from WTS into Handifast. The odds line that it generates isn't purely based on those factors but it might be worth a look-see as it's free.

I have noticed and used it with the CSV export you did. I think the Fair Odds was coded by Mr Wood. Maybe there is some correction to what I might have said. Love the CSV feature that can be blended into other or changed to suit.

[Partsnut]

In my opinion, assigning an odds line is very subjective topic. I believe that the most representative odds line numbers are generated by the public.
Once you have your 3 top contenders and if you follow the tote board, you may want to look for the actual betting trends that occur during any particular race.
I accomplish this with a betting module that I recently acquired from Joe Zambuto, which is incorporated in his software, that shows me the betting trends in real time.
It shows me which horses are being bet (underlays) and those that are lightly bet (overlays) and those that stay flat in accordance with their intial opening odds.
Being as the public is right approxamitely 33% of the time, I can get an indication as to which of my contenders offer the best value during a given race.
Value is the name of the game.

[Greyfox]

Greyfox,

I have two of Mitchell's books. One contained a program in the back of the book, written in a generic basic language. Did you use any of that program when you wrote your program, or did you use a different language?

Big Bill

I made my own program incorporating Pace and Speed a la Brohamer and Mitchell using a Lotus 1-2-3 program. (I still use lotus 1-2-3, although more are using Excel.)
The key is to set up the formulas exactly as Mitchell tells you to.


P.S.
After many years I've just dug out the book again too.
First of all you have to develop a class rating.
Secondly a Power rating.
Then an ability rating and then a
Betting line.
Chapters 13 to 15 are the core of what I built my program on at the time.

[fast4522]

In my opinion, assigning an odds line is very subjective topic. I believe that the most representative odds line numbers are generated by the public.
Once you have your 3 top contenders and if you follow the tote board, you may want to look for the actual betting trends that occur during any particular race.
I accomplish this with a betting module that I recently acquired from Joe Zambuto, which is incorporated in his software, that shows me the betting trends in real time.
It shows me which horses are being bet (underlays) and those that are lightly bet (overlays) and those that stay flat in accordance with their intial opening odds.
Being as the public is right approxamitely 33% of the time, I can get an indication as to which of my contenders offer the best value during a given race.
Value is the name of the game.


Respectively Bill I have to differ with you on this one, I really feel the public either over bets too much or under bets runners. The absolute key is having a rock solid betting line that differs with the morning line. The solid betting line pulls things together when all the factors in the racing form are viewed.

[Partsnut]

fast4522: Respectively Bill I have to differ with you on this one, I really feel the public either over bets too much or under bets runners. The absolute key is having a rock solid betting line that differs with the morning line. The solid betting line pulls things together when all the factors in the racing form are viewed.

Steve, I'm not disputing the fact that the public underbets or overbets specific horses. What I'm saying is that the public tends to bet torwards the moring line.
The public's selection at post time will generally yield the winner of a race 70% of the time from it's top 4 selections.

In the many years I've been playing, I've looked at a lot of software and found for the most part, that those generating a subjective fair odds line which is derived from the data available to anyone and everyone is still predicated on what the public will eventually do and the odds set by the track linemaker(morning Line). The data doesn't change and will never change. So what makes ones subjective placement of their own line any better or worse then what already exists (The Public Line) and has been proven to yield the same results, year after year, over and over again?
It is my firm belief and opinion that you have to work with what is currently available in real time and that would be the publics odds line.

[HTRFGuy]

[QUOTE=Partsnut]fast4522:

........... So what makes ones subjective placement of their own line any better or worse then what already exists (The Public Line) and has been proven to yield the same results, year after year, over and over again?

The only test for a true odds line is how well does your line fit with the actual race results. Whatever formula, factor, etc. you use for your line it needs to be tested over hundreds of races.

Do your 30:1 horses win ~3% of their races?
Do your 20:1 horses win 5% of their races?
Do your 10:1 horses win 9% of their races?
etc.
Do your 2:1 horses win 33% of their races?
Do your 1:1 horses win 50% of their races?
Do your 1:5 horses win 83% of their races?

Your need to test each horse, in every race, until you get a decent
fit for the entire range of odds.

[bob77713]

[QUOTE=Partsnut]fast4522:

........... So what makes ones subjective placement of their own line any better or worse then what already exists (The Public Line) and has been proven to yield the same results, year after year, over and over again?

The only test for a true odds line is how well does your line fit with the actual race results. Whatever formula, factor, etc. you use for your line it needs to be tested over hundreds of races.

Do your 30:1 horses win ~3% of their races?
Do your 20:1 horses win 5% of their races?
Do your 10:1 horses win 9% of their races?
etc.
Do your 2:1 horses win 33% of their races?
Do your 1:1 horses win 50% of their races?
Do your 1:5 horses win 83% of their races?

Your need to test each horse, in every race, until you get a decent
fit for the entire range of odds.

OMG!!!! This is exactly what I been trying to tell someone who preaches "bet overlays". I agree with the concept, but if your odds line isn't accurate, I don't see how you can call them overalys.

I saw a 5 year study one time for NFL oddslines. I can't remember the exact amount of participants, but i believe it was 40. Some of these guys were well known math professors. Guess who had the closest correlation to the final score! It was the Las Vegas morning line.

We need the same Vegas guys to create us a horse racing oddsline, so we can just kick back and bet 'true' overlays.

[Overlay]

OMG!!!! This is exactly what I been trying to tell someone who preaches "bet overlays". I agree with the concept, but if your odds line isn't accurate, I don't see how you can call them overalys.

And even with an accurate line, it's possible to show overall winning percentages that correspond to the line at each fair-odds level, but to still lose money because most of the winners go off at actual odds that are underlaid (where they wouldn't be bet), while the horses with actual odds that make them overlays in comparison to the line don't win often enough to produce a profit.

[fast4522]

The relationships I draw from a good fair odds line may not be the same as you are using.
When Ken Messa first published “Elimination Handicapping” in July of 1999, I took note and found it very interesting as I find all of the mans work. When Rich Rosa was in the beginning stages of devoloping “HOS” I told him I was working on a simuilar project called “NFW’s” which was also elimination handicapping. We all are doing our own thing, and mine is all about finding what works and using it solely for personal use and nothing for sale. In this use of many of ideas in a program for “personal use only” I feel I am not hurting anyone and take what I please regardless of who the originator was. I worked on several programs over the years and the one I have been having much fun with is my own PP Generator that not only includes Dick Schmidt’s TPR’s but also William Scott’s Performance Class Ratings as well as many other not mentioned ideas. A PP Generator loaded with good stuff as past performances should be. The latest addition was the “Fair Value Odds” that fits quite well into my program. All of the old salts I have known to be of professional class who do very well make their own fair odds. Everyone has their own take on this, but I will just tell you I am having allot of fun with it.

[xfile]

While assigning odds to a horse are we taking in to consideration that about a million things can (and do) go wrong in any horse race as soon as the gate opens?

A strict line can never be accurate unless you run the same race 100 times which they obviously don't do. I use true odds as a guide to where an overlay might pop up. If a horse has true odds of 4-1, 9-2, 5-1 or 6-1 but is going off at 20-1 it doesn't matter to me whether he was 4-1 or 6-1.

If someone wants to use a "so-called strict oddsline" to bet horses under 5-1 I'll book all of your action and give you a half-point to full point bonus for each bet..lol..Obviously I kid about booking the bet. That is frowned upon in this country (a guy sitting in his house booking horse races)...lol.....But I'd get a lot of business with my half-point bonuses!

Then I'll donate 7.5% of all bets to the Disabled Jockey Fund and another 7.5% to horse rescues and call it "take out".

My real point is a player can't make a strict and accurate oddsline. I've seen good men go insane and locked up in the sanitarium trying to do so. You can't get there from here.

[fast4522]

Unlike yourself Xfile I have nothing for sale, well placed plug you got in there. I would suggest to you I am not a flat bettor, and a few generous gents here at PA have done a very impressive fair odds line that is in contrast to what you are saying.

[JimG]

and a few generous gents here at PA have done a very impressive fair odds line that is in contrast to what you are saying.

Hi Fast,

Which odds line are you referring to? Handifast?

Jim

PS...Hope you hit some good ones today on your line. There is some great racing today.

[fast4522]

Hi Fast,

Which odds line are you referring to? Handifast?

Jim

PS...Hope you hit some good ones today on your line. There is some great racing today.

Hi Jim,
Certainly Handifast has a real nice fair odds line, Doug Wood made the code open to the folks here at PA. Top shelf originator and all who worked on the code to make the different variations of the program. I will also credit Rabo with his work made available to the people of PA with AllData. I am certainly not one to blow warm air up anyone's but occasionally I like to recognize those who have been genuinely generous with their time. Thanks for dropping in my friend.