PDA

View Full Version : win/place place only


misscashalot
09-08-2010, 10:34 AM
Do win players bet place

or

Do win player bet win - place?

In my case I have never found a situation where playing place in a win/place bet gave me a better roi. And when my horse didn't win it usually didn't place either, so my comfort level did not benefit.

I imagine there might be situations that I don't get into where betting win/place may produce a substantial increase in both roi and comfort level. Any input here?

Are there any place bet only players? I don't know?

SchagFactorToWin
09-08-2010, 11:00 AM
Not me. Sample size of over 600 picks in 18 months, broken down by Win odds shows no profit on Place bets at any odds level. Win bets show profits at the even-2:1 range and over 9:2.

xfile
09-08-2010, 11:05 AM
Unless you are on a live 20-1 shot or higher it doesn't make sense to bet place. There was a horse the other day 200-1 odds that paid over $100 to place. I forget the track.

ikeika
09-08-2010, 11:08 AM
I'm with you. If my horse doesn't win, then it's so far back they need to put lights on it so it can finish after dark.

rusrious
09-08-2010, 11:23 AM
In it to win it.. If you dont think your horse can win, then he shouldnt be a contender to start with, thats my logic. But like said, Live longshots are a totally differant ball game, and are played differantly, across the board..

dansan
09-08-2010, 11:31 AM
I bet to win also is their a scale that shows how much to wager according to the odds I was told you put more money on the bigger odds and less money on the lower odds but the I hear the opposite

horses4courses
09-08-2010, 11:37 AM
There was a horse the other day 200-1 odds that paid over $100 to place. I forget the track.

I think it was Suffolk....

Robert Goren
09-08-2010, 12:32 PM
There may be a case for betting a horse to place only sometimes, but is pretty hard for me to come up a case for betting both to win and place. I think combo bets are among the worst bets that can be made by the average better.

Canadian
09-08-2010, 01:24 PM
I kind of have my own idea that I think place/show tickets should be discounted even more then I think the rest of the pools should be (max rake of 15% for any ticket,... maybe 10% for ps... maybe less I haven't studied it like alot of people on here)..... anyway... reason being is all tghe new people I bring to the races feel comfortable betting these tickets..... I think if they won a bit more out of it... and maybe learned to master it, they would stick around to try more complicated tickets.

Robert Fischer
09-08-2010, 02:33 PM
pool inefficiencies yes, betting approach no

TheFlagIsUp
09-09-2010, 12:54 AM
I have a friend who bets win/placeX2 as a rule and has done very well with it.....I don't do it, but he's done real well over the years. Of course he doesnt bet every race on a card, but money can be made in the place pool.

the goal isn't to pick the winner, the goal is to make money.

jamey1977
09-09-2010, 01:13 AM
I have a friend who bets win/placeX2 as a rule and has done very well with it.....I don't do it, but he's done real well over the years. Of course he doesnt bet every race on a card, but money can be made in the place pool.

the goal isn't to pick the winner, the goal is to make money.
If you deal with the Top 3 picks. Win and Place betting can be useful. It just helps in confidence to get some of the money back. Yes, straight win betting is more profitable. But losing 9 in a row is just awful. Place helps our confidence somewhat and yes confidence is real important in our well-being. Losing 9 in a row over 2 days is just terrible. But with 4 places, at least we got something. Anything that gets some accounts receivable in. In the long run, win pays more. Even if we show a small place profit. It's better than losing 9 in a row and changing a successful method because of some bad beats. Never change, keep on keeping on. But, Place does help.

jamey1977
09-09-2010, 01:47 AM
Many play 5 tracks at one time. And it's possible to lose 13 win plays in one day. I bet 80 dollars to win and that means I will lose 1040 dollars in one day. I can't take that. I play 2 tracks at the same time now. Thanks To Hollywood Park and their stupid 4 day weeks. And I can easily lose 9 in one day. 720 dollars in one day. No way I am going to accept that. 40 dollars to win and place. And I will get usually something back. I haven't lost 9 in one day. But dammit, I sure in the heck can, real easy. And thanks for this thread. I do want to bet 40 dollars to win and place now. I will change from 80 to Win to 40 to Win And Place . I do not like losing win plays in a row. 11, 12. Some can take it. I can't. So Place is effective just to keep me from being hurt. LOL But it helps. My selections place. 35 percent win but about, 60 percent place on both circuits ,Place average of about 4.20. California pays low places, they're thieves. A 4 to 1 place in California, lucky to get $ 4.40 . Anything that gets some accounts receivable in. The same as a trifecta or a big exacta player hitting for small chops. Anything that gets something back. I agree, totally.

SchagFactorToWin
09-09-2010, 10:08 AM
I bet to win also is their a scale that shows how much to wager according to the odds I was told you put more money on the bigger odds and less money on the lower odds but the I hear the opposite

I just ran a test on a data set of 600 races in which I had a pick. Betting X to win vs. .5X on low odds (even money to 2:1) picks and 2X on long shots (over 9:2). Flat betting yielded 24% more profits.

misscashalot
09-09-2010, 10:16 AM
I just ran a test on a data set of 600 races in which I had a pick. Betting X to win vs. .5X on low odds (even money to 2:1) picks and 2X on long shots (over 9:2). Flat betting yielded 24% more profits.

Very interesting
What was roi before and after adjustment?

SchagFactorToWin
09-10-2010, 10:22 AM
flat 1.5
varies 1.43

I'm a big flat bet believer. I have tried numerous scenarios and have not been able to get a varied bet method to work better than a flat bet method, in profits or ROI, over any time frame that is meaningful (over 1 year).

I have found that as long as you have a reserve bank set properly, that flat bets are the way to go. That's what makes bank building difficult- it seems as though it's a variation on a varied bet size method (increasing your bet size as bank grows).

I've not used Kelly for bank building because I have not been able to calculate my edge each race, only as an average edge- which appears to be an incorrect application of Kelly.

misscashalot
09-10-2010, 10:48 AM
flat 1.5
varies 1.43

I'm a big flat bet believer. .......

When I experimented with varying my bet that had several different scenarios lumped into one study, I also found that the roi varied only slightly. So I decided, for bookkeeping sake not to mix and calculate. This way I get a clearer picture of which was greater in roi and strike. Just a matter of style I guess.

Shemp Howard
09-10-2010, 09:05 PM
Do win players bet place

or

Do win player bet win - place?

In my case I have never found a situation where playing place in a win/place bet gave me a better roi. And when my horse didn't win it usually didn't place either, so my comfort level did not benefit.

I imagine there might be situations that I don't get into where betting win/place may produce a substantial increase in both roi and comfort level. Any input here?

Are there any place bet only players? I don't know?


"Place it on Lucky Dan, 3rd race at Riverside Park."

Capeche?

misscashalot
09-10-2010, 09:14 PM
"Place it on Lucky Dan, 3rd race at Riverside Park."

Capeche?

"I said place, that horse is not going to win..." Lonnigan gets stung

clore1030
09-10-2010, 09:22 PM
Ever notice the goof in THE STING?

We're told that "Wrecking Crew" is 3/1 when Harold Gould's character finds him on the tape when looking for a play. But when the results are given, he's announced as paying six dollars to win.

Shemp Howard
09-10-2010, 09:24 PM
I made a load of money betting a grey by the name of Jacques Who to place back in the 70's. Then he went and won a low level handicap at the old Liberty Bell Park one winter over an odds on, paying boxcars to win and 4.60 to place. I felt like such a Stooge.

ManeMediaMogul
09-11-2010, 07:35 AM
I have a friend who bets win/placeX2 as a rule and has done very well with it.....I don't do it, but he's done real well over the years. Of course he doesnt bet every race on a card, but money can be made in the place pool.

the goal isn't to pick the winner, the goal is to make money.

This is my standard wager. I bet overlays...usually 5-1 or better so when my horse runs second I still win. I love making money when I lose!

There are lots of situations when a 5-1 horse will pay $7.00 to place, so let's say you bet $20 to win and $40 to place. You get back $140 for your $60 - That's an $80 profit. What is really fun is when you bet a 45-1 shot like I did at Saratoga a couple of weeks ago and got $36 to place. At the same wagering level, that would be a return of $720 on your $60 investment for a profit of $660! That adds 11 more bets to your bankroll. How can that be bad?

fmolf
09-11-2010, 08:36 AM
i will bet place bets some.... depends on the horse...some horses records are 25-5-0-2.....these horses are usually must lead types who expire in the stretch to finish off the board if they do not win...i'll bet place if the horse is a game gritty horse with as many seconds as he has wins.Odds have nothing to do with it for me...betting a low odds horse for place is as good as a longer one when you break it down,much less risk, and if a horse is paying 3.80 to win i may bet him in the place only,.. hoping to get 3.00 with less risk.

jamey1977
09-11-2010, 02:50 PM
Ever notice the goof in THE STING?

We're told that "Wrecking Crew" is 3/1 when Harold Gould's character finds him on the tape when looking for a play. But when the results are given, he's announced as paying six dollars to win.
I suppose the stupid screenwriter just assumed that 3 to 1 meant being paid twice which meant 6 dollars. Lousy lame amateur assumption. We all know in horseracing they pay 8 dollars. I write, have sold 2 Screenplays. These writers, the ones who do not cover themselves, through research and common-sense. Look like idiots. The Twilight Zone also had some huge mistakes. Too countless to name and they had a script research service too. Lame writers.

misscashalot
09-11-2010, 04:13 PM
I suppose the stupid screenwriter just assumed that 3 to 1 meant being paid twice which meant 6 dollars. Lousy lame amateur assumption. We all know in horseracing they pay 8 dollars. I write, have sold 2 Screenplays. These writers, the ones who do not cover themselves, through research and common-sense. Look like idiots. The Twilight Zone also had some huge mistakes. Too countless to name and they had a script research service too. Lame writers.

wrong Jamey he went off at 3/1 but late $ came in at 1/4 pole
knocking him down to 2/1. I know cause I was the one who got it in late.

SchagFactorToWin
09-12-2010, 09:03 AM
When I experimented with varying my bet that had several different scenarios lumped into one study, I also found that the roi varied only slightly. So I decided, for bookkeeping sake not to mix and calculate. This way I get a clearer picture of which was greater in roi and strike. Just a matter of style I guess.

I'm not sure I'm following you- Are you saying that you use different samples when comparing two wagering methods?

thaskalos
09-12-2010, 02:17 PM
The Twilight Zone also had some huge mistakes. Too countless to name and they had a script research service too. Lame writers.C,mon Jamey...

Most of the Twilight Zone episodes were written by Rod Serling himself...and he was as far away from the "lame writers", as you could get.

jamey1977
09-12-2010, 04:00 PM
C,mon Jamey...

Most of the Twilight Zone episodes were written by Rod Serling himself...and he was as far away from the "lame writers", as you could get.
Nah, Rod wrote the majority. Like 67 percent, approx. The Zone writers are all brilliant. But they had a script research service Deforest Research Service, they ignored so many infactual errors. One episode, they had the nearest planet in the nearest galaxy was 72 million miles away. Huge mistake. They had an exact day in 1865. They said it was Monday, all of us checked it was a Thursday, They had Mars like 11 million miles away from Earth, I can name 50. A lot of times, the writers are busy and can't check everything. Everything should be checked and covered. Inherit the Wind- The Candidate, Network- great scripts, great writers, everything is thorough.