Sloppy Tracks

[sq764]

When you handicap a track, and you then notice its sloppy, do you:

1) Skip the card entirely
2) Adjust your picks based on the off-track
3) Stick with your original selections


Obviously, value is value, but I was curious how most people deal with off-tracks..

[doophus]

Originally posted by sq764
When you handicap a track, and you then notice its sloppy, do you:

1) Skip the card entirely
2) Adjust your picks based on the off-track
3) Stick with your original selections

sq764...

Invariably I will choose #2 above...

1) Look at young horse races.
2) Check pedigree for off-track ability, then
3) Look for form among those pedigree eligibles
4) Pray for a hard dn-pour not just a light sprinkle.
5) Look at older horse races later, but insist on pedigree, also.

The largest ex I ever cashed was due to pedigree ability in a Mdn Clm'r at Evd during a monsoon. The top (2) were 0/14 and 0/11, had terrible PP's but were rated "A" for off-track. The favorite was formful but an old bigfoot. I missed the tri because I singled the bigfoot in pl hole.

If I can find a Crafty Prospector with no slop PP's, it will get some of my $$ on an off-track, preferably really sloppy.


George

[Zaf]

I tend to shy away from them. There are so many other choices with multi-track simulcasting these days. Though if I notice a speed bias I will try to capitalize if possible.

I remember a situation at Bay Meadows about 3 years ago when there was a lot wet weather and there was a serious front running bias. One sloppy day I caught 4 $15.00 plus winners ( all E7 & E8's if I remember ).

I noticed this at Charles Town recently also. Had a few good nights earlier this year on off tracks playing horses with excellent 1st fraction pace ratings.

My 2 cents.

ZAFONIC

[SAL]

With the tendency to seal tracks with rain in the forecast, I like frontrunners in the slop. Plus, races taken off the turf can sometimes produce nice prices because the public bets turf form. In these cases the DRF lifetime PP's are invaluable.

[kitts]

I follow a suggestion I got once from Gordon Jones. I handicap the same way. Gordon's suggestion was to handicap the same way but bet less but I just disregard track condition. If I am manually inputting a paceline from an off track, I still call it fast. If I am just choosing pacelines, I also disregard track condition. Obviously, my models reflect this. However, if a race goes off turf, I just don't bet it. I am a longshot player and depend on form reversal. I kept many records on both ways and I am content with my final decision.

[so.cal.fan]

I tend to agree with Kitts, nowadays, I don't think it really matters as it did years ago.
You can waste too much time trying to second guess the track condition and the breeding and how this horse or that jockey will handle the track.
I just look for the best horse and take my chances.

[kenwoodallpromos]

2.- but I adjust for conditions every day!

[takeout]

Originally posted by zafonic
I noticed this at Charles Town recently also. Had a few good nights earlier this year on off tracks playing horses with excellent 1st fraction pace ratings.

The trick with Charles Town is getting them to stay open long enough to finish a card in the slop. :D

CT beats them all when it comes to closing down because of rain. They just cancelled their Labor Day card after the 6th because of a rain shower. The rain had stopped and there never was any lightning - just a sloppy track.

Either the track needs a redo or the jocks are spoiled (they're finally making some money because of the slot-fueled purses) or a combination of both. Either way the problem needs a solution. In the last few years it has gotten ridiculous. Year-round racing? Hell, they can't even get off a card in the summertime if they have a hard shower up there.

I wonder if the horsemen get as mad as the customers?

I would love to see these slot tracks have to cancel their slot side if they cancelled their races. I'll bet the rain and other problems would end up with some quick solutions then. :rolleyes:

[Zaf]

I can understand why they cancel. Even on a fast track horses are blowing those bull ring turns badly. It must be quite scary for the jocks in the slop. I read some where that they were considering re doing the track and eliminating the bull ring. Any recent news on this ?

ZAFONIC

[Milleruszk]

Keep a close eye on the shoe board. Use every horse in exotics that are wearing 1/4 inch bends, caulks or both! You will be surprised at the shots that hit the board.

Tom

[Buddha]

Originally posted by takeout
The trick with Charles Town is getting them to stay open long enough to finish a card in the slop. :D

CT beats them all when it comes to closing down because of rain. They just cancelled their Labor Day card after the 6th because of a rain shower. The rain had stopped and there never was any lightning - just a sloppy track.



Did you happen to see any of the races on Monday at Charles Town? I was watching the 6th on TV while I was at Mountaineer, and it looked like they were running in about 4 inches of rain on the track. I can understand why they would think that might not be safe, and as someone else mentioned, with the tighter turns, it could become disasterous if not careful.

[Buddha]

And to answer the original question in the post, I usually adjust my picks to the offtrack, but sometimes might pass a race that I would have played on a fast track.

[takeout]

Charles Town has already cancelled AGAIN for tonight! Was I lying?! :rolleyes:

[takeout]

Originally posted by zafonic
I read some where that they were considering re doing the track and eliminating the bull ring. Any recent news on this ?

I heard some rumors that they were considering making it a 7f track (it's 6f now) by making the turns wider. Also heard or read somewhere that they were thinking of running at Shd while they worked on CT, but I won't believe any of it until I see it. :)

[takeout]

Originally posted by Buddha
Did you happen to see any of the races on Monday at Charles Town? I was watching the 6th on TV while I was at Mountaineer, and it looked like they were running in about 4 inches of rain on the track. I can understand why they would think that might not be safe, and as someone else mentioned, with the tighter turns, it could become disasterous if not careful.
Yeah, I was there and it had a LOT of water on it. They started floating it twice between races before they shut down. My guess is that the track must not drain at all. It sure doesn't appear to. The jocks keep refusing to ride so I guess it gets slippery or something. Sure is aggravating though. I remember a stretch a long time ago when that track was a quagmire for almost a week and they never missed a beat. So, I'm wondering what the difference is between then and now. :confused:

I used to love to go up there when it was raining. Used to get a lot of speed on the rail types in the slop and it took some of the mystery out of the handicapping. Now it's more important to handicap the track as to whether they will stay open before making that "fools trip" for nothing.

[Valuist]

I will either pass them entirely or significantly cut back the number of races I play if its sloppy or muddy. With full card simulcasting, there's really no need to throw away money on sloppy tracks.

Soft turf is altogether different; I love soft turf courses because there's a number of horses who love the soft or yielding courses.