Thoughtful Books

[The Judge]

Like many at Pace Advantage I've read almost every book written on handicapping that's in publication I've gone to used book store , Gamblers Book Store etc. Two books that I recommend as being well written and that may give cause for re-thinking what you think you know about the game are "Handicapping Speed by Charles Carroll and Betting and Portfolio Management at the Racetrack by Its. Inc.

Here I'll just talk about Betting Tech. Most of us are looking for some form of value before we bet a horse not just a winner at all cost. This presents a huge problem because over the long run track stats. come into play. The top 2 horses win 50% of all races at all tracks top horse wins 33% etc. etc we've all heard it before, but what to do. BT tries to address the problem are your bets true overlays or wishful thinking.

It's difficult to find true overlays on high odds horses. What about multiple overlays in a race? Did the public not only miss one horse but two or three or is something wrong with your handicapping program. Is our bet just a random bet or is it above random? It shows why we should not be betting a lot of races if we are trying to make money at the track.

Check them out for yourself and don't leave them on the shelf they should be re-read.

Thanks

[mhrussell]

Judge-

I also bought the "Betting Techniques" paper about 4 months ago. I like the ITS "crowd" and use the Handicapping Magic methods in my work. However, I was disappointed in this paper. The basic concepts have been explained elsewhere and for the price of the report, I expected a lot more content and detail. This was only a very brief 27 page overview. For $20 I expected better.

regards,

[Bob Harris]

I agree...the ITS publication on betting is a real gem! Understanding what's going with the toteboard is as important as the contender process in my opinion.

My guess would be that half the races I pass are due to money showing up or not showing up as I had expected. Once in a blue moon I'll get bit on the backside but the vast majority of these passed races would have resulted in lost wagers.

If Eric ever decides to write a book on gambling theory and pari-mutual wagering, I predict it will have more impact on handicappers than any book yet written! Even Michael Pizzolla, who is the best all-around player I personally know, would happily admit that Eric's work has made him a much better player than he already was.

[JimL]

Speaking of Eric, could someone explain his concept of a non-linear odds line to me? I listen when he talks!

[The Judge]

I think the concept of randomness is worth $18.50, but the idea of waiting until you have a good bet and passing races where you have a bet, is worth a lot of money.

Then to give a set of mechanical rules to fit a persons betting style conservative, aggressive etc. is great, who has the nerve to give out mechanical rules these days. Mechanical rules is what we are all looking for(at least I am) its just that they don't work in picking horses ,and if they did we would be on the same horse. Here the mechanical rules for betting suggests that even the most aggressive player should be passing more races and it shows what those races are likely to be based on your odds line. He even admits that rules are made to be broken sometimes Pg.24.This is worth a lot of money.

Theres nothing new at the track, it all came from somewhere but I've never heard it laid out this way. 27 pages is a lot of information if it were $8.00 I would have been happier but it wasn't. A person could be a winning handicapper but plays too many races this "report" would help.