Does anybody bet to win anymore

[BELMONT 6-6-09]

Went to Saratoga last week with a few buddies and bet my friend that he could pick up ten separate discarded tickets from the floor and maybe one out of the ten tickets would have a win wager. The total was zero. The money on the toteboard does not lie, however, the overwhelming small bettors at the track are betting anything but the win pool...We had a few laughs.

[Tom]

You test would suggest that win bettors cash and the others throw the tickets away. ;)

[BELMONT 6-6-09]

You test would suggest that win bettors cash and the others throw the tickets away. ;)

:lol: :lol: :lol: NIce one Tom!

[Turkoman]

You test would suggest that win bettors cash and the others throw the tickets away. ;)

Yeah, that's why he couldn't find any.......hehe

Turkoman

[misscashalot]

Went to Saratoga last week with a few buddies and bet my friend that he could pick up ten separate discarded tickets from the floor and maybe one out of the ten tickets would have a win wager. The total was zero. The money on the toteboard does not lie, however, the overwhelming small bettors at the track are betting anything but the win pool...We had a few laughs.

My typical bet is win plus exacta x/xxx

I bet 5 units win and 1 unit exacta

win strike 40% exacta 15%

so there are more of my losing exacta tickets on the floor than my wins.
:)

[Turkoman]

My typical bet is win plus exacta x/xxx

I bet 5 units win and 1 unit exacta

win strike 40% exacta 15%

so there are more of my losing exacta tickets on the floor than my wins.
:)

That makes a lot of sense.

[Fingal]

You test would suggest that win bettors cash and the others throw the tickets away. ;)

As Dick Mitchell said- If you can't make a profit betting to win, you have no business playing the exotics.


Or as in Glen Frey's Smuggler's Blues

It's the lure of easy money
It's gotta very strong appeal

[Robert Goren]

The once or twice a month better who shows up at track is almost ways an exacta or tri box better. They have budgeted a loss and are looking for a score. Most of the win pool money on favorites is coming from large betters. The people who are at the track every day are either looking for really good price in the win pool or are betting tri or supers. I have feeling that most pick 3s or pick 4s are bet online. I am sure most pick 6s are.

[BELMONT 6-6-09]

It seems to me that some portion of the bettors today are less inclined to make a stance and single a 'key horse' for the purposes of a win bet and generally box up a number of horses in the exotics ie. superfectas, trifectas , exactas to broaden the wager for the sole purpose of cashing a ticket.

The win wager (especially at 4/1 and up), should be the focal point for the majority of recreational players...then the exotics are the extras.

[46zilzal]

every day but that is not where the best ROI comes from

[CincyHorseplayer]

Win bets stabilize the ROI.Gotta have em.

[Stillriledup]

Win pools in Calif will start getting much bigger on Dec 26th.

[thaskalos]

As Dick Mitchell said- If you can't make a profit betting to win, you have no business playing the exotics.


Or as in Glen Frey's Smuggler's Blues

It's the lure of easy money
It's gotta very strong appealI agree with the the last comment...but not the first one.

Dick Mitchell was wrong...you CAN make a profit in the exotics, even if you have failed as a win bettor.

I had always included win betting in my "arsenal", but I realized that it was a losing proposition for me...and I eliminated it.

I have concentrated on the superfecta for about 3 years now...and I am very happy with the results.

Results in win betting have nothing to do with results in exotics betting in my opinion.

Exotics wagering is all a matter of personal temperment, and the proper rating of horses...assuming one has the discipline to avoid overdoing it, and playing every race.

[CincyHorseplayer]

I agree with the the last comment...but not the first one.

Dick Mitchell was wrong...you CAN make a profit in the exotics, even if you have failed as a win bettor.

I had always included win betting in my "arsenal", but I realized that it was a losing proposition for me...and I eliminated it.

I have concentrated on the superfecta for about 3 years now...and I am very happy with the results.

Results in win betting have nothing to do with results in exotics betting in my opinion.

Exotics wagering is all a matter of personal temperment, and the proper rating of horses...assuming one has the discipline to avoid overdoing it, and playing every race.

Spoken like someone who's been there and done that.Nice post and totally true at a lot of levels.:ThmbUp:

[tubesockshakur]

I agree with the the last comment...but not the first one.

Dick Mitchell was wrong...you CAN make a profit in the exotics, even if you have failed as a win bettor.

I had always included win betting in my "arsenal", but I realized that it was a losing proposition for me...and I eliminated it.

I have concentrated on the superfecta for about 3 years now...and I am very happy with the results.

Results in win betting have nothing to do with results in exotics betting in my opinion.

Exotics wagering is all a matter of personal temperment, and the proper rating of horses...assuming one has the discipline to avoid overdoing it, and playing every race........agree 100%

[skate]

every day but that is not where the best ROI comes from

every day....WHAT?:)

[judd]

i am mostly a win bet type of person
i play tris & supers just at times
like to pound a win place show bet across the board

[1GCFAN]

Analyized my Twin Spires account and it shows a nice balance but I am $0 when betting win and place and an alarming $0 return when submitting 57 exacta bets. My game is tri partwheels and I am going to stick to it!

[appistappis]

my game has turned profitable again in the last six months......the reason, WIN betting only.

[judd]

my game has turned profitable again in the last six months......the reason, WIN betting only.


thats what im talking about, sure you can get lucky and hit a pick 4 etc but
daily win betting you have better odds at success :liar:

[Robert Fischer]

As Dick Mitchell said- If you can't make a profit betting to win, you have no business playing the exotics.


Or as in Glen Frey's Smuggler's Blues

It's the lure of easy money
It's gotta very strong appeal
Fundamentals, Fundamentals, Fundamentals.

[CincyHorseplayer]

If you are a win bettor,what is your criteria for a bet and what is your ROI using such strategy?

[Space Monkey]

Misscashalot, do you ever box your win bet in your exactas?

I always considered win betting boring, but lately I've embraced it. I've totally revamped my handicapping and for August I showed a win profit and an exotic loss. No surprise really and I've come to realize win betting isn't boring if you take the $ you would be spreading around on exotics and just put it on the nose. Saying that, I am now playing 5 times a week, instead of 4 or 5 times a month. That helps.

[Trotman]

For 40 years WIN betting only and Exacta's when it fits.

[bugboy]

o.k. gonna try two bets for 9-8-10
pen nat. race 7 # 10 win only
rpx r 1 # 3 win only

[misscashalot]

Misscashalot, do you ever box your win bet in your exactas?

I always considered win betting boring, but lately I've embraced it. I've totally revamped my handicapping and for August I showed a win profit and an exotic loss. No surprise really and I've come to realize win betting isn't boring if you take the $ you would be spreading around on exotics and just put it on the nose. Saying that, I am now playing 5 times a week, instead of 4 or 5 times a month. That helps.

Yes, win betting is an acquired taste. But when you're on to it, it is sweet

My prime situation is where I key one horse to win, and play him on top in exactas with 3 others underneath. I never have a horse less than 8/1 underneath. The average win price is $7.50, and I usually put horses that are 8-1 (many times 25/1) or higher underneath. Average X mutuel is $75.00. Strike rate for win is 42%. Strike rate for X is 17%. I bet 1 unit in X and 5 units win. I bet NYRA only. So far this calendar year I have 158 bets of this kind. I have several other different types of situations which are handled differently. The numbers for these differ widely as compared to my prime. I wont bet into a situation where my strike rate is about less than 40% and roi no less than about +40%. That's my comfort level. I use an excel data base. I spend nothing for info, and bet at home. I'm strictly a board player. I don't know or care to know one end of a horse from another. I spend about 3 hrs a day in data entry and analyzing data. I live for what I do. I tell you all this because I'm curious about what other players here are doing in regard to what I've covered, and would appreciate finding out about what their comfort levels are, and what they, in fact realize in profitability. Thanx Misscash

[thaskalos]

Yes, win betting is an acquired taste. But when you're on to it, it is sweet

My prime situation is where I key one horse to win, and play him on top in exactas with 3 others underneath. I never have a horse less than 8/1 underneath. The average win price is $7.50, and I usually put horses that are 8-1 (many times 25/1) or higher underneath. Average X mutuel is $75.00. Strike rate for win is 42%. Strike rate for X is 17%. I bet 1 unit in X and 5 units win. I bet NYRA only. So far this calendar year I have 158 bets of this kind. I have several other different types of situations which are handled differently. The numbers for these differ widely as compared to my prime. I wont bet into a situation where my strike rate is about less than 40% and roi no less than about +40%. That's my comfort level. I use an excel data base. I spend nothing for info, and bet at home. I'm strictly a board player. I don't know or care to know one end of a horse from another. I spend about 3 hrs a day in data entry and analyzing data. I live for what I do. I tell you all this because I'm curious about what other players here are doing in regard to what I've covered, and would appreciate finding out about what their comfort levels are, and what they, in fact realize in profitability. Thanx Misscash Am I reading this right? Are you saying that these "prime" win bets bring you a ROI of +58%, and your exactas an ROI +114%?

If that is the case...my hat is off to you. I never thought that results like these were possible.

I am showing a ROI of +11.5% on my bets - which involve a rather complicated, structured form of superfecta wagers - and I couldn't be happier. But my bet sample is a lot larger than yours.

You say that you bet only NYRA. Is that because you have tried other circuits and were not pleased with the results...or do you just prefer to only bet one circuit?

[appistappis]

space money, I couldn't agree more.

[misscashalot]

Am I reading this right? Are you saying that these "prime" win bets bring you a ROI of +58%, and your exactas an ROI +114%?

If that is the case...my hat is off to you. I never thought that results like these were possible.

I am showing a ROI of +11.5% on my bets - which involve a rather complicated, structured form of superfecta wagers - and I couldn't be happier. But my bet sample is a lot larger than yours.

You say that you bet only NYRA. Is that because you have tried other circuits and were not pleased with the results...or do you just prefer to only bet one circuit?
Yes youre reading right.

I collected data fr SoCal, Gulf and Churchill. But, because of several factors I gave it up. Reasons: 1- Using data that is successful at one track does not necessarily transfer to others. So new analysis is required. 2- Time involved left me no time to enjoy life. 3- Profitability was greatest at NYRA, so since all we are dealing with is hard cash, the more I needed, the more I can lay it in at NYRA.

You talk about complicated. My method is likewise very complicated. So we both know how difficult it is, at certain times to keep our heads on straight.
My Data entry is all manual input. My db is unique and is extremely complicated and contains many convoluted macros without which I couldn't function.
Your 11% roi is good. All it takes is cash, and if a player is profitable, they can lay it in (after all, a bank gives shit interest now). But that requires self confidence and the ability of maintaining your sanity in long stretches of consecutive losses which is inevitable. It requires balls, confidence and the ability to maintain concentration. In my example the longest losing streak, at a strike rate of 42% is 9; and this is on the win end. On the x its much more. Thanks for your info...and keep it going.

[DeanT]

With you two, I'm thinking of changing my name to mrcashnotsomuch.

[jamey1977]

My typical bet is win plus exacta x/xxx

I bet 5 units win and 1 unit exacta

win strike 40% exacta 15%

so there are more of my losing exacta tickets on the floor than my wins.
:)
40 percent win, that's a great strike rate. Jim Quinn still says the best one can do is 35 percent wins at 7 dollars? I want to better, what he said . But hell ,I'm always around 35 percent wins at 7 dollars anyway. I have done everything. conserving plays, going on so-called expert handicapper comments, everything and still around 35 percent at 7.. What is your average payoff. ? 40 percent at 6 dollars , 40 percent at 8 dollars ? Or such ? . I hate losing and damn, the hit rate is extremely important. I have analyzed trifectas, exactas, the losing streaks are awful. One can go 8 racing days with barely getting some money back. Terrible. But in 8 racing days. We can get 21 official win plays off, and win around 8 at a 7 dollar average. And at 100 dollars to win. We can be up 700 dollars. With trifectas and exactas. it's so damn hard to get even one.

[classhandicapper]

I still mostly play to win but that's only because I rarely find more than one significant mistake on the odds board. The ability to exploit multiple mistakes is the primary value of exotic wagering because it can lead to higher returns. Otherwise, all you are doing is bucking a higher take and the potential for tax tickets chasing after scores that don't net out to better profits and could possible be hurting you long term.

[ikeika]

MissCashALot, I do the same at home. Lotsa work. A long time ago, I figured if I had just one good bet a day at 4-1 or greater and put $200 to win, and it won, I could clear over $200,000 a year in So. Calif. I don't normally play exactas as I predate their introduction in SoCal. My hit rate is around 90% on what I play. However, I "mentally" lose the other 8 races run that day. In that regards I'm hitting 1 in 9, I just don't play the other 8.

It's not how many races you bet, it's the ones you bet win.

[rusrious]

I've been hitting my win bets,

my last 40 races,

40 races
Out $80
IN $94.90
1.18 ROI
23 wins
.57 win%
9 placed

With $300 bankroll, how can I generate a steady profit?

[misscashalot]

I've been hitting my win bets,

my last 40 races,

40 races
Out $80
IN $94.90
1.18 ROI
23 wins
.57 win%
9 placed

With $300 bankroll, how can I generate a steady profit?

1. Do u bet place? If yes is it the same amount as the win bet?

2. If you bet place, whats your return for the place?
Higher or lower than win?

3. If it's lower then don't bet place but double your win bet.

4. If you don't bet place just continue what youre doing.

[rusrious]

I dont usually bet place, Im concentrating on hit rate, so I win bet only.. Im thinking of 2% progressive betting or due column..selective bets, 3/1 or better, adjusting bankroll% daily, but looking for the 2% gain per bets, win or lose.. If I'm hitting 54%, then I look clear without 3 in a row in the loss column.

So, each bet, looking to profit 2% of my bankroll, and raising the bet% daily, but might chance to every other day, not sure yet..

Thanks for the input.

[Space Monkey]

I tell you all this because I'm curious about what other players here are doing in regard to what I've covered, and would appreciate finding out about what their comfort levels are, and what they, in fact realize in profitability. Thanx Misscash

I've created spot plays that are the basis of all my wagers. If the play is not performing at an ROI of 1.50, I don't use it. Like I mentioned before, I've just embarked on this recently and am still in beta test mode. That means my wagers are small as the experiment progresses. :) Unlike you, I can't devote the time to this that it deserves. You know, the work thing. My ROI is showing a slight overall profit, with win wagering outperforming my exotic attempts. But the sample is small. I just have to go along at my own pace until I'm confident enough to fund a bankroll and bet accordingly.

[Robert Fischer]

what SUCKS is when a horse you like, is cold on the board, and wins for fun.

you have to develop a confidence to be a good win player. 20% thats 1/5 if you are doing well.
BOOM

[Space Monkey]

Just happened to me except that he didn't win for fun :mad: Porcupine in Del 4th. Was 12-1 until the last flash. Went off 8-1, was behind a wall of horses entering stretch, had to move outside, took a few strides to get going and lost by a diminishing head, no, forehead. Tough beat. :bang:

[BELMONT 6-6-09]

I always believed that a winning player has a certain 'instintive' style of play that has no definite rules. They simply have the confidence to wager, at that moment the best possible way to have the percentages favor absolutely...if they don't have their perceived edge they pass.

The win wager, imo, seems to be the wager that holds together the player of this type as he can cover his total investment with a win wager at a healthy price (maybe 4/1 or higher), and let the exotic combinations play for the power of improving the win ROI. Or at times the right wager is an exacta or double etc. and no win wager.

[misscashalot]

I always believed that a winning player has a certain 'instintive' style of play that has no definite rules. They simply have the confidence to wager, at that moment the best possible way to have the percentages favor absolutely...if they don't have their perceived edge they pass.

The win wager, imo, seems to be the wager that holds together the player of this type as he can cover his total investment with a win wager at a healthy price (maybe 4/1 or higher), and let the exotic combinations play for the power of improving the win ROI. Or at times the right wager is an exacta or double etc. and no win wager.

Well put and right on the mark
I bet win 5 units and
X 1 unit (3 bets a/bcd)
My win strike rate of 42% pays for the exacta with a strike of 17%.
Together my long term roi is +.77

[BELMONT 6-6-09]

Well put and right on the mark
I bet win 5 units and
X 1 unit (3 bets a/bcd)
My win strike rate of 42% pays for the exacta with a strike of 17%.
Together my long term roi is +.77

Plenty of power in that combination.You play for profit...bravo!

[Sunday Silence]

MissCashALot, I do the same at home. Lotsa work. A long time ago, I figured if I had just one good bet a day at 4-1 or greater and put $200 to win, and it won, I could clear over $200,000 a year in So. Calif. I don't normally play exactas as I predate their introduction in SoCal. My hit rate is around 90% on what I play. However, I "mentally" lose the other 8 races run that day. In that regards I'm hitting 1 in 9, I just don't play the other 8.

It's not how many races you bet, it's the ones you bet win.
You mean to tell me out of 100 selections, with odds of 4-1 or better, you hit NINETY of those? Sorry, I call BS. Bridge jumpers can't even get 90% of 3-5 shots in 5 horse fields to show, yet you can get 90% of 4-1 shots or higher..Apologize in advance if I'm misunderstanding your claim. Actually, a lot of claims of hit rates in these threads seem bogus to me. Guys that wail about long losing streaks, are trying 15 different methodologies, yet quote stats like 35% win rates and $7.40 returns like it's easy. I agree money management is key, but I hardly see posts on how to pick the winner in the first place. This is the age of the milkshake. The only ones hitting those percentages are trainers with the best vets. Follow them to the winners circle. This is true at almost every track in the country right now. And it's not just 6/5 shots. It's the horses with bad form claimed from straight up trainers that produce big payoffs with the milkshake barns. I'm not a conspiracy theory guy. I've just seen it way too much. And now I don't fight it - I look for those opportunities. Wish I hit 90% of the time though..

[jamey1977]

You mean to tell me out of 100 selections, with odds of 4-1 or better, you hit NINETY of those? Sorry, I call BS. Bridge jumpers can't even get 90% of 3-5 shots in 5 horse fields to show, yet you can get 90% of 4-1 shots or higher..Apologize in advance if I'm misunderstanding your claim. Actually, a lot of claims of hit rates in these threads seem bogus to me. Guys that wail about long losing streaks, are trying 15 different methodologies, yet quote stats like 35% win rates and $7.40 returns like it's easy. I agree money management is key, but I hardly see posts on how to pick the winner in the first place. This is the age of the milkshake. The only ones hitting those percentages are trainers with the best vets. Follow them to the winners circle. This is true at almost every track in the country right now. And it's not just 6/5 shots. It's the horses with bad form claimed from straight up trainers that produce big payoffs with the milkshake barns. I'm not a conspiracy theory guy. I've just seen it way too much. And now I don't fight it - I look for those opportunities. Wish I hit 90% of the time though..
It is so hard to get just one damn horse across the line. I actually do want to start betting Win And Place now. I can't take the losing streaks. Yes, I get 35 percent at 7 dollars. But long term. There are dry spells. Can lose 7 in a row. Can win 2 for 13. We all wait for that great period where something happens. I guess we get a great crop of horses and the track is just right and we win 14 out of 26 plays at 7 dollars. This great period takes us to 35 percent at 7 dollars average. Betting is never easy. Getting the winner is one of the hardest things of all. We can't even follow the so-called Public Handicappers, they screw up so much we are just better off going on our own. No one can win 90 percent. No one can even win 90 percent show bets. I am lucky that my selections can place 60 percent of the time. But, we all hang in there.

[rusrious]

50 races
Out $100
IN $118.30
1.18 ROI
29 wins
.58 win%
11 placed

my last 50 bets

9-3-10

Mth

R10-6--win $9.40

Wo

R9--10--win $5.80

Crc

R9--2--placed
R0--7--lost

Elp

R8--1--win $3.80
R9--5--lost

Lad

R7--4-lost
R8--3-lost

Sar

R3--3-placed
R5--1--win $6.40

9-4-10

Phi

R2--6--place
R6--3--place
R0--4--win--$4.60

MTH

R2--6--win-$2.60
R4--7--win-$4.00
R5--2--lost

RD

R1--5-place

SARA

R1--2--win--$3.30
R2--8--win--$4.90
R0--3--win--$2.60

9-5-10

MTH

R12--7--win--$3.60

CRC

R1--4--showed
R6--3--scratch

TIM

R4--5--scratch
R9--6--win--$4.00

GG

R6--4--win--$3.00

SAR

R3--3--win--$4.20
R7--2--win--$2.70

LAD

R5--4--placed

DMR

R1--2--win--$3.40

SAR (replacement)

R8--1--lost
9-6-10

TIM

R2--2--WIN--$2.40
R5--7--WIN--$2.80

CT

R5--5--PLACE

MTH

R1--6--SCRATCH
R3--1--PLACE

RD

R1--6--WIN--$2.80
R4--3--WIN--$3.40

WO

R8--1--PLACE

LAD

R5--2--WIN--$3.00

PHI

R10--4--WIN--$7.00

9-7-10

mnr

R6--1

9-08-10

DEL

R7--6--win--$5.20
R0--6--place

TDN

R6--6--win--$3.20
R8--4--4th

GG

R6--4--win--$3.60
R7--2--place

DMR

R2--4--lost
R5--10-win--$3.20
R8--4--win--$3.60

WO

R5--5--win--$4.60

[thaskalos]

MissCashALot, I do the same at home. Lotsa work. A long time ago, I figured if I had just one good bet a day at 4-1 or greater and put $200 to win, and it won, I could clear over $200,000 a year in So. Calif. I don't normally play exactas as I predate their introduction in SoCal. My hit rate is around 90% on what I play. However, I "mentally" lose the other 8 races run that day. In that regards I'm hitting 1 in 9, I just don't play the other 8.

It's not how many races you bet, it's the ones you bet win.Now I have heard everything...:faint:

[raybo]

Personally, for me anyway, it's a matter of "risk vs reward. I find that superfectas offer much better rewards while requiring less risk than any other wager type.

45+% net profit, 6 years running.

[ikeika]

I was gonna put up a long rebuttal, however, I'll just leave it at this. They're aren't alot of people who can do as well as raybo, misscashalot or myself. It's just a lot of work and patience.

And as I was told after being escourted out of Circus Circus in Las Vegas, "You see all these tall buildings?"
I answer, "Yes".
"Well they're built by losers not winners"

That was a long time ago, however, I now knew were Vegas placed me.

[thaskalos]

I was gonna put up a long rebuttal, however, I'll just leave it at this. They're aren't alot of people who can do as well as raybo, misscashalot or myself. It's just a lot of work and patience.

And as I was told after being escourted out of Circus Circus in Las Vegas, "You see all these tall buildings?"
I answer, "Yes".
"Well they're built by losers not winners"

That was a long time ago, however, I now knew were Vegas placed me.Do you have a 90% win rate with your casino bets too?

[ikeika]

I never play anything but the ponies. If I play another man's game I will surely lose.

To expand on that Vegas thing, a friend of mine, who was a bookie (though he never booked me), took me to Vegas. I had never been and I was rather naive about things. So, I sat myself down at the Stardust, got every Racing Form I could, and began to handicap. Since I didn't know anything about Vegas, I was proud as punch to share my picks with those around me. In a span of an hour or so, I placed 7 win/place bets of $10 each. My longest paid $38 to win, the lowest $16 to win and one paid $16 to place. 6 wins and 1 second from 7 races. I had a crowd around me. The guy next to me said I really knew those eastern tracks. I told him I didn't even know which state those tracks were in. All that mattered to me was what the trainer was doing to get his horse ready and then I looked at the horses in the post parade to see which horse was fit and ready and felt like he was the best in the race.

A change girl came up to me and asked how I was doing. I said that I win a few, lose a few. She said I hadn't lost any. The comment went over my head. I didn't think anything about. During this time, my bookie friend came to where I was sitting and the conversation went something like this:
He said, "It' time to go".
"Look at what I've played."
"Well, have you been giving out your numbers?"
"Sure."
"You may be only betting $10 but they're betting $10,000. You've probably cost the Stardust a quarter of a million dollars." (Back then Nevada was a bookmaker state on horseracing, not pari-mutual) "And you've been pegged"
"What are you talking about?"
"You see that change girl sitting next to you?"
"Yep"
"They don't make change in the racebook. Let's go."

A year later, I took my daughter to Vegas for her 21st birthday. That's when I walked into Circus Circus, heard a bunch of clickers (like the ones in a Cracker Jacks box), then two big guys came to each side of me, another in front of me, and out the door we went. They then said what I told you earlier. I asked them how they knew me. "No one wins. Those that do, every casino is shown your picture. It's my job not to let you play. And once you leave here, every casino will know and you won't be able to play, anywhere."

They put the Fear of God in me. I never went back to Vegas.

[Space Monkey]

Gee, and I felt good back in the 70's when a Central Falls bookie wouldn't take my bets anymore. :lol:

[JohnGalt1]

I never play anything but the ponies. If I play another man's game I will surely lose.

To expand on that Vegas thing, a friend of mine, who was a bookie (though he never booked me), took me to Vegas. I had never been and I was rather naive about things. So, I sat myself down at the Stardust, got every Racing Form I could, and began to handicap. Since I didn't know anything about Vegas, I was proud as punch to share my picks with those around me. In a span of an hour or so, I placed 7 win/place bets of $10 each. My longest paid $38 to win, the lowest $16 to win and one paid $16 to place. 6 wins and 1 second from 7 races. I had a crowd around me. The guy next to me said I really knew those eastern tracks. I told him I didn't even know which state those tracks were in. All that mattered to me was what the trainer was doing to get his horse ready and then I looked at the horses in the post parade to see which horse was fit and ready and felt like he was the best in the race.

A change girl came up to me and asked how I was doing. I said that I win a few, lose a few. She said I hadn't lost any. The comment went over my head. I didn't think anything about. During this time, my bookie friend came to where I was sitting and the conversation went something like this:
He said, "It' time to go".
"Look at what I've played."
"Well, have you been giving out your numbers?"
"Sure."
"You may be only betting $10 but they're betting $10,000. You've probably cost the Stardust a quarter of a million dollars." (Back then Nevada was a bookmaker state on horseracing, not pari-mutual) "And you've been pegged"
"What are you talking about?"
"You see that change girl sitting next to you?"
"Yep"
"They don't make change in the racebook. Let's go."

A year later, I took my daughter to Vegas for her 21st birthday. That's when I walked into Circus Circus, heard a bunch of clickers (like the ones in a Cracker Jacks box), then two big guys came to each side of me, another in front of me, and out the door we went. They then said what I told you earlier. I asked them how they knew me. "No one wins. Those that do, every casino is shown your picture. It's my job not to let you play. And once you leave here, every casino will know and you won't be able to play, anywhere."

They put the Fear of God in me. I never went back to Vegas.


Interesting story.

Thank goodness they went pari-mutual.

[JohnGalt1]

Went to Saratoga last week with a few buddies and bet my friend that he could pick up ten separate discarded tickets from the floor and maybe one out of the ten tickets would have a win wager. The total was zero. The money on the toteboard does not lie, however, the overwhelming small bettors at the track are betting anything but the win pool...We had a few laughs.


I have never thrown a losing ticket away. If I ever get audited, the tax man wouldn't like it.

Does anyone here ever throw away their losing tickets?

[ikeika]

It's more than that. The IRS thinks that everything in your home you just bought yesterday with your winnings. They come out, look around, and say, "Looks like you made $60,000 last year." So, you keep all your receipts of everything you ever bought and break them out year after year proving when you purchased what you have in your home. When you deal strictly in cash, the IRS has no way of tracking it. You need to make your own paper trail.

[BELMONT 6-6-09]

It is so hard to get just one damn horse across the line. I actually do want to start betting Win And Place now. I can't take the losing streaks. Yes, I get 35 percent at 7 dollars. But long term. There are dry spells. Can lose 7 in a row. Can win 2 for 13. We all wait for that great period where something happens. I guess we get a great crop of horses and the track is just right and we win 14 out of 26 plays at 7 dollars. This great period takes us to 35 percent at 7 dollars average. Betting is never easy. Getting the winner is one of the hardest things of all. We can't even follow the so-called Public Handicappers, they screw up so much we are just better off going on our own. No one can win 90 percent. No one can even win 90 percent show bets. I am lucky that my selections can place 60 percent of the time. But, we all hang in there.

The psychological factor is of utmost concern to the horseplayer. however, though I understand your point in relation to the losing runs..however, the win pools will always offer the most profit in the long term.The difference between the winning player and the losing one is the ability and willingness to accept the fact that losing is all a part of winning...confidence in your plan it the key to success.

[PaceAdvantage]

I never play anything but the ponies. If I play another man's game I will surely lose.

To expand on that Vegas thing, a friend of mine, who was a bookie (though he never booked me), took me to Vegas. I had never been and I was rather naive about things. So, I sat myself down at the Stardust, got every Racing Form I could, and began to handicap. Since I didn't know anything about Vegas, I was proud as punch to share my picks with those around me. In a span of an hour or so, I placed 7 win/place bets of $10 each. My longest paid $38 to win, the lowest $16 to win and one paid $16 to place. 6 wins and 1 second from 7 races. I had a crowd around me. The guy next to me said I really knew those eastern tracks. I told him I didn't even know which state those tracks were in. All that mattered to me was what the trainer was doing to get his horse ready and then I looked at the horses in the post parade to see which horse was fit and ready and felt like he was the best in the race.

A change girl came up to me and asked how I was doing. I said that I win a few, lose a few. She said I hadn't lost any. The comment went over my head. I didn't think anything about. During this time, my bookie friend came to where I was sitting and the conversation went something like this:
He said, "It' time to go".
"Look at what I've played."
"Well, have you been giving out your numbers?"
"Sure."
"You may be only betting $10 but they're betting $10,000. You've probably cost the Stardust a quarter of a million dollars." (Back then Nevada was a bookmaker state on horseracing, not pari-mutual) "And you've been pegged"
"What are you talking about?"
"You see that change girl sitting next to you?"
"Yep"
"They don't make change in the racebook. Let's go."

A year later, I took my daughter to Vegas for her 21st birthday. That's when I walked into Circus Circus, heard a bunch of clickers (like the ones in a Cracker Jacks box), then two big guys came to each side of me, another in front of me, and out the door we went. They then said what I told you earlier. I asked them how they knew me. "No one wins. Those that do, every casino is shown your picture. It's my job not to let you play. And once you leave here, every casino will know and you won't be able to play, anywhere."

They put the Fear of God in me. I never went back to Vegas.So a bunch of people who don't know you from a hole in the wall, but have the wherewithal to be betting $10,000 a pop just start playing your picks for the hell of it?

I guess it's been a while since the tall tales started flowin' 'round here...

[ikeika]

I don't know if they bet $10,000 or not. It's just what my friend said. He was just trying to make a point. One of which I forgot. Don't talk to anyone about horse racing.

[DeanT]

I'll share my story where I can explain my peak 75% ROI.

I was in grade seven. I had never been to the track. We went to Flamboro Downs for the harness races. I walked in and was thrilled with the action. We got a program and I began studying the first race. It was a maiden race for trotters, and I had no idea what that was. I looked at the lines on the 8 and the horse came 3rd last time and had a decent time compared to the others. I looked at the back and he was driven by Mike Shaefer, and he was the leading driver. How could this horse be 4-1?!

Im in. I got my brother to bet $2 place and $2 show.

The horse got off last, but about four horses started running like I just watched Spectacular Bid do on TV a couple of weeks earlier. I figured they could not do that, and be legal. They pulled to the outside and my horse moved up. It was exciting, 5th, 4th , 3rd then the wire came. Photo!

I waited and waited and boom! I was second!

I cashed $4 for the place and $3 for the show for $3 profit.

I calculated my ROI and it was great.

It's been all downhill since then.

[thaskalos]

Don't talk to anyone about horse racing.Is that why you have been absent from this website for so long...you were afraid that we are going to "pick" your brain?

Don't worry about Las Vegas anymore, by the way. Now that the bets are infused into the track pools, they will let you win all the money you want.

[ikeika]

When I talk about horse racing it sounds like I'm bragging, even to me. I'm not though. The truth never changes.

I have lots of examples of what I've done but here's just a couple. I helped a friend of mine make some extra money. He wanted to play the stock market at that time. He was a nice guy with an ordinary job. There was a stock market show on TV in L.A. and Clover Racing Stable was talking about syndicating a horse. My friend asked me about it and I told him what I thought. I went down to the track, had a look at the horse and gave the check. The horse was Martial Law. I told my friend, and was correct within 72 hours of when the horse would be on the track to race. I knew Julio Canani's training schedual. Martial Law won. That night, on the front room floor, looking at the condition books my friend asked me if we were dreaming where could we run the horse. I told him if the owners took what they won today, they could supplement the horse to the Santa Anita Handicap. He called Jeff Seigel and Barry Irwin about this idea. They had a meeting with the other owners and Martin Pedroza and Martial Law was in. Martial Law won the Santa Anita Handicap at odds of 50-1 just one-fifth of a second off of the stakes track record. If you see an old Clover Racing Stable ad, I'm the bald guy in the winner's circle, second row, near the middle. With the money my friend got, he bought into Colway Rally, Kansas City, and Eradicate all of which were stakes/handicap winners. Colway Rally went to the Breeder's Cup and I was there. We didn't win. My friend just convinced everyone to go because it's the Breeder's Cup. When will we ever be able to go again?

Getting back the Santa Anita Handicap, in the thrid race that day, Ruhlmann, Martial Law's half brother, set the track record for a mile. One hour later, Martial Law is just one-fifth of a second off of the stakes record. Now this wasn't lost on me or the trainer of Ruhlmann. If your horse can win for $50,000 or $1,000,000 where would you run it?

Ruhlmann was taken off of the track but that September his name was on the nominations list for the up coming Big Cap. I told my friends about it. Ruhlmann came out at the end of the Hollywood meet and won a race. I told my friends that if Ruhlmann won his next start he would lose the Big Cap. However, if Ruhlmann lost his next start he would win the Big Cap. He lost his next start.

The day of the Santa Anita Handicap, there was a group of about 14 of us. I was asked, "You had that longshot last year, who do you have this year?" I said that I had told you last year, "Ruhlmann." They looked at the tote board and it displayed odds of 25-1. One girl bet a $2 show ticket. The horse paid, I believe, $47.60 to win. That was the longest time I had spent waiting for a race it was also a very quiet time around the dinner table.

As for "picking my brain", everyone has their own style or method for handicapping. I'll give one example that I get taken to task on, Beyer Speed figures.

I was in the library, a long time ago, and saw a book about handicapping. At this time, I had never read anything by anyone about horse racing other than the past performances in the Daily Racing Form. It was by Adrew Beyer. I glanced through it and near the back it had a reprint of past performances of a race. He had his circles and numbers written over some horses. This was for a filly maiden race. One filly looked like it couldn't find its way out of the gate over and over and over again. But she had been racing solely against the boys. Now she was in with the girls. To me, she was a stand out from having been in tougher races. I turned the page for the results and my horse won. It paid around $29, if memory serves me well. Beyer's horse ran second. In the first sentence after the charts he said he didn't know why that longshot won but then he goes on to tell you about his horse. I figured if he didn't know then there was no reason for me to read this book. I put it back. When class looks speed in the eye, speed loses.

P.S. DeanT, I had a start like you. If I had lost that first time I probably would never have bet again.

[PaceAdvantage]

I was in the library, a long time ago, and saw a book about handicapping. At this time, I had never read anything by anyone about horse racing other than the past performances in the Daily Racing Form. It was by Adrew Beyer. I glanced through it and near the back it had a reprint of past performances of a race. He had his circles and numbers written over some horses. This was for a filly maiden race. One filly looked like it couldn't find its way out of the gate over and over and over again. But she had been racing solely against the boys. Now she was in with the girls. To me, she was a stand out from having been in tougher races. I turned the page for the results and my horse won. It paid around $29, if memory serves me well. Beyer's horse ran second. In the first sentence after the charts he said he didn't know why that longshot won but then he goes on to tell you about his horse. I figured if he didn't know then there was no reason for me to read this book. I put it back. When class looks speed in the eye, speed loses.I mean, we had to know this was coming...of all the authors in the world, you just happened to stumble upon a Beyer book... :lol:

[ikeika]

The Downey Public Library wasn't into horse racing. I did start spending many days over the next few years at the CHRB library across from Santa Anita and their selection seems almost endless. Like I said, I knew I'd be taken to task. That's the Carleton F. Burke Memorial Library.

[PaceAdvantage]

Like I said, I knew I'd be taken to task.How did you know?

[ikeika]

The same reason I can pick winners. If you look through the court records in L.A. county back in '87 you'll see where my ex took me to court over playing the horses. The judge said that it was gambling and she couldn't have anything of what I had won. She said that with me it wasn't gambling. She said that she felt like the woman who put her husband through medical school and was now leaving to go and make a bunch of money. The judge said that I did put her through graduate school and she had her directorship and I wasn't asking anything of her. Case dismissed.

[Robert Fischer]

:lol:

[BELMONT 6-6-09]

:lol:

The group on this fine site represent a broad range of successful and non-successful players in terms of long-term profitability playing this 'tough' game. That being said a 90% win rate is simply hard to understand and accept and I think most, if not all ,would agree with me. That's simply my opinion.

[ikeika]

Yep, you're right. People don't remember that I bet very few races and I can sit at the track for days on end and never make a bet. I don't count all the races in a week that I didn't bet, just the one I did bet.

[BELMONT 6-6-09]

Yep, you're right. People don't remember that I bet very few races and I can sit at the track for days on end and never make a bet. I don't count all the races in a week that I didn't bet, just the one I did bet.

Andy Beyer wrote about a friend that he was assocaiated with years ago that was a fixture on the New York circuit. His name was Charlie and he would wait for the right opportunities with extreme patience. He could go to the track every day for weeks or months without making a single move...when he did bet he could earn on one winning bet, a sum which the average middle class American would consider a decent annual income. Yes, he had an occasional loser.

More power to you.All the best.

[markgoldie]

The group on this fine site represent a broad range of successful and non-successful players in terms of long-term profitability playing this 'tough' game. That being said a 90% win rate is simply hard to understand and accept and I think most, if not all ,would agree with me. That's simply my opinion.
A 90% win rate over any sort of reasonable sample is totally, completely, and utterly impossible with a 100% degree of certainty. Anyone making such a statement should be given the amount of credibility and respect that they justly deserve.

[thaskalos]

A 90% win rate over any sort of reasonable sample is totally, completely, and utterly impossible with a 100% degree of certainty. Anyone making such a statement should be given the amount of credibility and respect that they justly deserve. Especially when that person claims to possess the ability to "look at the horses in the post parade and see which horse is fit and ready"...FROM THE CONFINES OF A LAS VEGAS SPORTSBOOK.