quality road vulnerable in the woodward?

[bisket]

i think this may be the case. i can't narrow the possible winner to less than 3 others. a 4 horse trifecta box might just be the best way to go. although i'm not going to rule out an exacta as the play. i'll have to wait to see how the track is playing today to decide. i do think just like in rachel's race quality could drop to third here. judging from pletchers comments after the last race i do think quality road will be gunning from gate. its gonna be an interesting race today. heres some free pps from the drf website for everyone to look at.
the three horses i like for the upset are: convocation, tranquil manner, and mythical power.
http://www1.drf.com/formulator-web/FreeRace.do?trackId=SAR&country=USA&raceDate=20100904&dayEvening=D&raceNumber=10#past-performance-race/10

[Relwob Owner]

i think this may be the case. i can't narrow the possible winner to less than 3 others. a 4 horse trifecta box might just be the best way to go. although i'm not going to rule out an exacta as the play. i'll have to wait to see how the track is playing today to decide. i do think just like in rachel's race quality could drop to third here. judging from pletchers comments after the last race i do think quality road will be gunning from gate. its gonna be an interesting race today. heres some free pps from the drf website for everyone to look at.
the three horses i like for the upset are: convocation, tranquil manner, and mythical power.
http://www1.drf.com/formulator-web/FreeRace.do?trackId=SAR&country=USA&raceDate=20100904&dayEvening=D&raceNumber=10#past-performance-race/10





I am not a big QR fan, but he will romp....this is a pretty weak field for a 750K race

[GARY Z]

guess which Trainer deserves payback. :eek: :eek:

First clue:I picked this Trainer/Horse combo last week in the Travers.

final clue: son of the Giant Killer

:jump: :jump: :jump:

[cj]

i do think just like in rachel's race quality could drop to third here.


You mean the one where you said she would be 1st or 3rd and she finished 2nd?

[PaceAdvantage]

In examining QR's PPs, the first thing that stands out at me is how he's being wheeled right back in the Woodward. A very positive sign in my opinion. This doesn't happen often with QR...

QR tends to bounce a bit (uh oh...did I just use that word again?) second start off of LONG layoffs, which is what the Whitney was...he also has shown improvement off that bounce in the past in his third start off the layoff...

Thus, I look for him to run back towards his Met Mile effort..maybe not quite as good, but pretty much right there, which will easily take care of the rest of this field, unless Mine That Bird turns into a monster with the equipment change... :lol:

The only bet I will be making here will be a very small one on longshot Arcodoro. He woke up and said hello to the world in a big way last time in his first start on fast dirt...now he'll have to battle QR early which might spell certain doom, but crazy things happen and like I said, it will be a very small wager.

[cj]

The only bet I will be making here will be a very small one on longshot Arcodoro. He woke up and said hello to the world in a big way last time in his first start on dirt...now he'll have to battle QR early which might spell certain doom, but crazy things happen and like I said, it will be a very small wager.

I have him not running as fast on dirt as he did on turf. No thanks for me, but he'll be at least 50 to 1 so I'll root for you!

[PaceAdvantage]

I have him not running as fast on dirt as he did on turf. No thanks for me, but he'll be at least 50 to 1 so I'll root for you!The HTR Cramer numbers have him running lights out compared to anything he has done in the past...equal to Tranquil Manner's last...

And I edited my prior post...that last race was his second start on dirt...first start over a fast strip...

[bisket]

dropping mythical power and adding indian dance. he has a few really impressive races.....

cj i could be wrong on what i saw from you BEFORE the ensign: rachel has 80% chance of winning. really going out on a limb on that one :D . give us some specific information before a race for once in your life. then your comments might just be taken more seriously afterwards. you know most of us handicap the race beforehand, and know we might be wrong. that kinda comes with the territory. you will never see me criticize someone that tells us what they think beforehand, but i have lots of contempt for people who never post specific information before a race. then expound on how wonderfully they handicap the performance afterwards. which is the bottom line on our antagonistic relationship. taking a stance and being wrong is what REAL handicappers do.....

[PaceAdvantage]

dropping mythical power and adding indian dance. he has a few really impressive races.....

cj i could be wrong on what i saw from you BEFORE the ensign: rachel has 80% chance of winning. really going out on a limb on that one :D . give us some specific information before a race for once in your life. then your comments might just be taken more seriously afterwards. you know most of us handicap the race beforehand, and know we might be wrong. that kinda comes with the territory. you will never see me criticize someone that tells us what they think beforehand, but i have lots of contempt for people who never post specific information before a race. then expound on how wonderfully they handicap the performance afterwards. which is the bottom line on our antagonistic relationship. taking a stance and being wrong is what REAL handicappers do.....You didn't just do this, did you? That's a shame.

CJ has given specific info countless times before a race on this board, and you claiming he has not either exposes your true level of ignorance or your true level of trolldom. Either way it ain't pretty for you.

CJ gets one response and then I lock this thread and transfer my thoughts to the other Woodward thread on here, which is where your initial comments should have gone in the first place (but then again, I missed that thread too.)

[Relwob Owner]

dropping mythical power and adding indian dance. he has a few really impressive races.....

cj i could be wrong on what i saw from you BEFORE the ensign: rachel has 80% chance of winning. really going out on a limb on that one :D . give us some specific information before a race for once in your life. then your comments might just be taken more seriously afterwards. you know most of us handicap the race beforehand, and know we might be wrong. that kinda comes with the territory. you will never see me criticize someone that tells us what they think beforehand, but i have lots of contempt for people who never post specific information before a race. then expound on how wonderfully they handicap the performance afterwards. which is the bottom line on our antagonistic relationship. taking a stance and being wrong is what REAL handicappers do.....


Two questions....first, do you really think that taking a stance and being wrong makes a real handicapper? Seems like if you do that enough, you would fall into the category of being a bad handicapper, no?

Next, which of Indian Dances' races would you label as being "impressive"?

[JBmadera]

I hope PA's pick runs well enough to pressure QR and set it up for my pick, :7: , should get a perfect stalking trip.

[Dahoss9698]

dropping mythical power and adding indian dance. he has a few really impressive races.....

cj i could be wrong on what i saw from you BEFORE the ensign: rachel has 80% chance of winning. really going out on a limb on that one :D . give us some specific information before a race for once in your life. then your comments might just be taken more seriously afterwards. you know most of us handicap the race beforehand, and know we might be wrong. that kinda comes with the territory. you will never see me criticize someone that tells us what they think beforehand, but i have lots of contempt for people who never post specific information before a race. then expound on how wonderfully they handicap the performance afterwards. which is the bottom line on our antagonistic relationship. taking a stance and being wrong is what REAL handicappers do.....

I don't know if I have ever laughed so hard after reading something. Thanks...

[PaceAdvantage]

I don't know if I have ever laughed so hard after reading something. Thanks...Second only to me placing actual money on Arcodoro I would presume. Hey bisket, thanks for taking the heat off me!

Maybe I'll leave this thread open after all...

[DeanT]

In examining QR's PPs, the first thing that stands out at me is how he's being wheeled right back in the Woodward. A very positive sign in my opinion. This doesn't happen often with QR...



Two ways to look at that - a good thing because he bounced last time and coming back quickly might suit him (and it lends credence to the fact that there is nothing wrong with him after his last sub par effort). However, it might be a bad thing because Pletcher's quick wheel backs are really bad bets.

[cj]

Second only to me placing actual money on Arcodoro I would presume. Hey bisket, thanks for taking the heat off me!

Maybe I'll leave this thread open after all...

I would venture a guess HTR is way off on this one.

As for bisket, he can say what he likes. I can take it. He likes to zing me when he gets the chance, but can't take it in response. I don't mind.

[Charlie D]

However, it might be a bad thing because Pletcher's quick wheel backs are really bad bets.




Interesting info Dean and i like Convocation a bit more now. :)

[PaceAdvantage]

Two ways to look at that - a good thing because he bounced last time and coming back quickly might suit him (and it lends credence to the fact that there is nothing wrong with him after his last sub par effort). However, it might be a bad thing because Pletcher's quick wheel backs are really bad bets.In QR's case, it has proven beneficial in the past, last time being in the JCGC

[cj]

Two ways to look at that - a good thing because he bounced last time and coming back quickly might suit him (and it lends credence to the fact that there is nothing wrong with him after his last sub par effort). However, it might be a bad thing because Pletcher's quick wheel backs are really bad bets.

28 days is a quick wheel back? For the record, I put in 25 to 31 days and he is 25% and ROI is about 81 cents on the dollar. His record with all horses is 23% and 86 cents on the dollar ROI.

[DeanT]

Interesting info Dean and i like Convocation a bit more now. :)

I had not looked at the race until now, but I see it is 28 days. That is not bad for TP. For some dumb reason I thought it was shorter than that.

It seems odd that he said at the start of the year he wanted to space his races out this year, but now he is in in 28 days, so that might make one pause.

Regardless, if it was 14 days like the Preakness with SS you were prolly fading hard on this angle, but at 28 it is much less of a factor.

He looks like a lock, but 28 days, the fact that he will probably be sent hard, the fact he raced flat last time all has to make us pause I think. If he is too low I will take a swing on some exotics with him off the ticket.

[PaceAdvantage]

28 days is a quick wheel back for this particular horse lately.

[Charlie D]

Make your mind up guys. I've got to decide if it should be minimum staking or not on the #1 :)

[Dahoss9698]

Second only to me placing actual money on Arcodoro I would presume. Hey bisket, thanks for taking the heat off me!

Maybe I'll leave this thread open after all...

I try not to talk anyone off of huge longshots, but yeah I don't get that one.

I will mention that running in this race has always been the plan for QR. Pletcher wants him fresh for the BC and unless he changes his mind, this will be his last race before the BC.

[DeanT]

In QR's case, it has proven beneficial in the past, last time being in the JCGC
Ya, certainly something you can hang your hat on as an angle.

There is enough funky stuff going on with this horse to make this more interesting than it is on paper, imo.

[Dahoss9698]

It seems odd that he said at the start of the year he wanted to space his races out this year, but now he is in in 28 days, so that might make one pause.



This has been the plan since at least before the Met Mile, maybe earlier. The Met, Whitney, Woodward then the BC.

[DeanT]

This has been the plan since at least before the Met Mile, maybe earlier. The Met, Whitney, Woodward then the BC.

Yep, but I am just reading between the lines; and not even doing that. TP also said in a BH chat in May that they were thinking of giving him a start between the Met Mile and The Whitney, but they did not. I think if he won the Whitney by daylight they would have stuck with what worked and thought about giving him a longer break. But since he was flat and lost, they are in the race to see if he bounces back.

[Dahoss9698]

Yep, but I am just reading between the lines; and not even doing that. TP also said in a BH chat in May that they were thinking of giving him a start between the Met Mile and The Whitney, but they did not. I think if he won the Whitney by daylight they would have stuck with what worked and thought about giving him a longer break. But since he was flat and lost, they are in the race to see if he bounces back.

http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/57235/fresh-quality-road-tops-met-mile-lineup

Pletcher has plotted a course this summer that will include the Whitney Handicap (gr. I) and the Woodward Stakes (gr. I) at Saratoga, leading up to the Breeders' Cup Classic (gr. I) at Churchill Downs. He said he considered the Stephen Foster Handicap (gr. I) next weekend at Churchill, but opted for this spot instead.

[DeanT]

JS: You mentioned the Whitney, Woodward, and Breeders' Cup as the other three races you have planned out for him. Will it just be those three?

TP: We're still deciding if we'll give him a race between Met Mile and the Whitney. We wait until after this race to decide.



I can quote too. :)

[Relwob Owner]

dropping mythical power and adding indian dance. he has a few really impressive races.....

cj i could be wrong on what i saw from you BEFORE the ensign: rachel has 80% chance of winning. really going out on a limb on that one :D . give us some specific information before a race for once in your life. then your comments might just be taken more seriously afterwards. you know most of us handicap the race beforehand, and know we might be wrong. that kinda comes with the territory. you will never see me criticize someone that tells us what they think beforehand, but i have lots of contempt for people who never post specific information before a race. then expound on how wonderfully they handicap the performance afterwards. which is the bottom line on our antagonistic relationship. taking a stance and being wrong is what REAL handicappers do.....


I am a little confused here...you attack CJ, lecture him on what it takes to be a real handicapper, etc. etc. Then you throw out that Indian Dance has a few impressive races...I asked for your reasoning but so far, the silence has been deafening. You talk the talk about what it takes to be a real handicapper, now walk the walk man!

[Dahoss9698]

I can quote too. :)

You said it was weird he is wheeling back. It's not. This has been the plan all along. Had he won the Whitney by 15 lengths where do you think they would have run him next?

[DeanT]

You said it was weird he is wheeling back. It's not. This has been the plan all along. Had he won the Whitney by 15 lengths where do you think they would have run him next?

This is why people do not get in a conversation with you. You say they are wrong about a fact they post, then they show you the instance that explains their opinion and you go on in some other circular argument.

I have ignored you for months, and now I know why.

You have your opinion and I have mine. That's wonderful. Have a great day at the races on this fun Saturday.

[Dahoss9698]

This is why people do not get in a conversation with you. You say they are wrong about a fact they post, then they show you the instance that explains their opinion and you go on in some other circular argument.

I have ignored you for months, and now I know why.

You have your opinion and I have mine. That's wonderful. Have a great day at the races on this fun Saturday.

I stand corrected on my earlier comment about Bisket's post. This one is much funnier.

I get it Dean. You're above discussing things with me. You don't like someone asking you to explain your opinion. Fair enough. But take your insults and shove them up your disingenuous, pompous ass.

[DeanT]

But take your insults and shove them up your disingenuous, pompous ass.

Thanks for not disappointing me :)

I will still wish you a good day, however.

[gm10]

QR will probably win, but I think Mine That Bird will improve a lot today and Convocation isn't a bad sort - needs to turn the form around with QR, though. On even weight terms, this has to be QR's race to lose. But 3/10 ... no thanks.

[DeanT]

QR will probably win, but I think Mine That Bird will improve a lot today and Convocation isn't a bad sort - needs to turn the form around with QR, though. On even weight terms, this has to be QR's race to lose. But 3/10 ... no thanks.

It seems to be troll bait to like Mine That Bird if you are thinking QR will regress, but I dont think it's a stretch. He could fire a nice race today, in my opinion. If QR is way too low, or looks a little off in the paddock or PP, I will prolly box up 1,2 and 7, and maybe play 2-17-A and 2-A-17 tris.

[Dahoss9698]

Thanks for not disappointing me :)

I will still wish you a good day, however.

Like I said, you know where to shove your disingenuous posts.

It's too bad you think you are above a simple question. You aren't.

[gm10]

It seems to be troll bait to like Mine That Bird if you are thinking QR will regress, but I dont think it's a stretch. He could fire a nice race today, in my opinion. If QR is way too low, or looks a little off in the paddock or PP, I will prolly box up 1,2 and 7, and maybe play 2-17-A and 2-A-17 tris.

QR is the superior animal but obviously he lost last time. The jock probably screwed up, but at 3/10 I am not eager to test that theory.

Know what you mean with MTB. He ran quite fast late last time (when there is a hidden improvement, this is often a good way of finding it), and he is one of those horses whose form seems to be cyclical. Who knows - I have sympathy for the horse anyway.

[Relwob Owner]

QR is the superior animal but obviously he lost last time. The jock probably screwed up, but at 3/10 I am not eager to test that theory.

Know what you mean with MTB. He ran quite fast late last time (when there is a hidden improvement, this is often a good way of finding it), and he is one of those horses whose form seems to be cyclical. Who knows - I have sympathy for the horse anyway.


He ran fast late last time? I dont have the pp's in front of me but I could swear he lost several lengths in the last part of the race

[DeanT]

QR is the superior animal but obviously he lost last time. The jock probably screwed up, but at 3/10 I am not eager to test that theory.

Know what you mean with MTB. He ran quite fast late last time (when there is a hidden improvement, this is often a good way of finding it), and he is one of those horses whose form seems to be cyclical. Who knows - I have sympathy for the horse anyway.

The interesting part for MTB and the race set up in general is TP's quote after the Whitney, when he was looking for something to explain the effort. this throws an interesting dynamic into the race, if you choose to believe they will fire him hard.

But Quality Road’s trainer, Todd Pletcher, is not about to lose faith, and he made an interesting observation following the Whitney. The trainer said that although Quality Road was loose on the lead through soft fractions (universally accepted as an ideal trip for a front-runner), the colt would have been better served if he had been permitted to utilize his knockout punch earlier in the race. Theoretically a much faster pace would have actually been beneficial to Quality Road; he is most effective when permitted to use his best weapon to run his rivals off their feet. A faster early pace, as the theory goes, would have sapped the late kick of the ultimate winner, Blame, a grinder who would have been forced to burn much of his energy just to enter contention.

[Charlie D]

You have a good memory RO

5-6.5 5-12.5

[ArlJim78]

No matter how I look at the race I'm not able to see where QR is vulnerable to any of these.

[DeanT]

No matter how I look at the race I'm not able to see where QR is vulnerable to any of these.
He'll have to race poorly to lose, that's for sure.

[Robert Fischer]

Agree with PA about both the relative recency of QR being probably a good sign, and the reflection on 28 days being recent in some of these trainers and divisions. Also turned me on to ARcodoro. I really like his race 2 back as well 7.5Turf. In that race the pace was tougher than it looks in the form, and I'm not a fan of the pilot. His fast ascent

The longshot that caught my eye was Mythical Power. Could do anything here.


I have no concrete insight that QR is "off form", so one of these races I can't really bet, but will have fun watching and breaking down.

[Charlie D]

He'll have to race poorly to lose, that's for sure.

QR 1.37 (4/11) on my line Dean

I'm still going have a min stake win bet on #1 though if price appeals.

[InsideThePylons-MW]

Greg Wolf on TVG talking the $1 minimum $500K guaranteed P-4 at Saratoga........

"If you beat Quality Road, you might get the whole pool"

[DeanT]

Greg Wolf on TVG talking the $1 minimum $500K guaranteed P-4 at Saratoga........

"If you beat Quality Road, you might get the whole pool"

That's cute :)

[toetoe]

Bar JF Hot Ticket might get second if he (it ?) were entered. Atrocious field. Mr. Walton, your thoughts ?

BW: "Ho-o-o-orrible !"

[PaceAdvantage]

Also turned me on to ARcodoro.I apologize in advance... :lol:

The pace setup is completely against him today with QR in the race, although he might soften up QR if they both gun for the front...QR is the much faster animal early, which puts Arcodoro at an even greater disadvantage.

Plus, if you watch Arcodoro's last race like I did, he didn't exactly inspire confidence down the stretch..$2 is still the minimum wager, correct? :lol: :lol:

This all begs the question as to why I ever mentioned him in the first place...well...he fits the model for 9f at Saratoga...came in second on my model behind Quality Road.

With all that said, I think I will play an exacta with him under QR in addition to my tiny win bet.

[bisket]

I am a little confused here...you attack CJ, lecture him on what it takes to be a real handicapper, etc. etc. Then you throw out that Indian Dance has a few impressive races...I asked for your reasoning but so far, the silence has been deafening. You talk the talk about what it takes to be a real handicapper, now walk the walk man!
maybe you didn't read that i had somewhere to go...

anyhow i like indian's two races at 1 1/8 mile at laurel and ct. 3 of his last 5 races have been high 90's figs. it says to me high 90's are a run of the mill effort, and he may just be ready show lay a big one down. i will have to admit i have a soft spot for this barn though. i don't like mythical power because baffert's best runners are usually raced in pairs. meaning two big efforts and short break and two big efforts. he has runners that he runs regularly like this that i think just need experience. i mainly don't like him because his best races all came at shorter distances, and is efforts at this distance lacked any kind of punch.

i think quality may just be vulnerable because he is going to be on the rail with arcodoro on his flank. i see quality running hard enough to stay in front just like in the met mile. will it be to hard and he falters? a common occurrence at saratoga this summer! although when quality is allowed to run like this it does make him more aggressive in the stretch. which means he could run one of his best...

[bisket]

oohh ramon is on indian!!

[Relwob Owner]

maybe you didn't read that i had somewhere to go...

anyhow i like indian's two races at 1 1/8 mile at laurel and ct. 3 of his last 5 races have been high 90's figs. it says to me high 90's are a run of the mill effort, and he may just be ready show lay a big one down. i will have to admit i have a soft spot for this barn though. i don't like mythical power because baffert's best runners are usually raced in pairs. meaning two big efforts and short break and two big efforts. he has runners that he runs regularly like this that i think just need experience. i mainly don't like him because his best races all came at shorter distances, and is efforts at this distance lacked any kind of punch.

i think quality may just be vulnerable because he is going to be on the rail with arcodoro on his flank. i see quality running hard enough to stay in front just like in the met mile. will it be to hard and he falters? a common occurrence at saratoga this summer! although when quality is allowed to run like this it does make him more aggressive in the stretch. which means he could run one of his best...



Fair enough....from my view, the races you are referring to arent near the level he is entering today. Maybe he will come up big, as you never know at the Spa

[bisket]

the cambell at laurel was a new track record, and indian was practically the only horse to move forwardly all day in the stretch. it was better than it looks.

[46zilzal]

Real brilliant speed begins to falter after 8.5 furlongs. I have spoken to many a rider and they all agree..Only true speed in the race but distance limited?

open up BIG, rest down the back side and run again....When you control the show it is up to the rest to come get you.

[Charlie D]

:1: a bet at 8-1+ (minimum stakes)

:1: :3: Box

[Robert Fischer]

mythical power ...i mainly don't like him because his best races all came at shorter distances, and is efforts at this distance lacked any kind of punch...

Mythical Power's Sunland Derby puts him in the conversation.

[46zilzal]

The one thing that bothers me about QR's early speed figures, they are going backwards as the distance increases as is the FX ([velocity F1 + velocity F3]/2) so if this were a step over 9 furlongs that one would be vulnerable from the late movers :5: and :6:

:1: may hand close for awhile but it will cost him

[bisket]

this is how i played it

1$ tri box
:1: :3: :5: :6:
3$ ex box
:3: :5: :6:
2$ straight exacta
:1: :3:

[46zilzal]

this is how i played it

1$ tri box
:1: :3: :5: :6:
3$ ex box
:3: :5: :6:
2$ straight exacta
:1: :3:
logical

[Relwob Owner]

the cambell at laurel was a new track record, and indian was practically the only horse to move forwardly all day in the stretch. it was better than it looks.


That track was absurdly fast.....you are really reaching IMO

[bisket]

Mythical Power's Sunland Derby puts him in the conversation.
its not out of the question that either he and mine that bird could step up and beat me. i just don't give performances early in a horses 3 year old year alot of credence unless the horse shows it again. could this be the race that happens? yes! thats why its gambling

[sonnyp]

ut oh that forelock is in the middle of his face again

[bisket]

Mythical Power's Sunland Derby puts him in the conversation.
good call

[gm10]

Commentator on At The Races ... 'I'm not knocking QR, but look at his late action, Zenyatta will eat him alive in the Classic'.

Can't wait.

[Charlie D]

Torn up tickets, but enjoyable nonetheless

:ThmbUp: winners.

[DeanT]

Bounced back nicely!

Poor MTB. Wow, he looks pretty bad out there.

[PaceAdvantage]

Commentator on At The Races ... 'I'm not knocking QR, but look at his late action, Zenyatta will eat him alive in the Classic'.

Can't wait.Problem being she's going to have to eat a whole bunch alive, not just QR...good luck with that...

Last I heard, Rinterval isn't going in the BC Classic...

[Grits]

Commentator on At The Races ... 'I'm not knocking QR, but look at his late action, Zenyatta will eat him alive in the Classic'.

Can't wait.

This thread doesn't have a thing to do with Zenyatta, for God's sake--could you for JUST ONCE give it a rest.

You need a muzzle!:lol:

[PaceAdvantage]

This thread doesn't have a thing to do with Zenyatta, for God's sake--could you for JUST ONCE give it a rest.

You need a muzzle!:lol:The Euros have adopted Zenyatta as their own apparently...

[Charlie D]

The Euros have adopted Zenyatta as their own apparently...

Excuse me Sir, but this Euro has not adopted any horses ;)

[Grits]

Between reading about Zenyatta and laying, getting laid, odds or whatever . . . . this dude's unreal.:faint:

Charlie D is a joy to read!!! GM10, take lessons from him, PLEASE.

[speed]

The Euros have adopted Zenyatta as their own apparently...
Why not, Zenyatta is kinda like a gelding. :)
Only worth more than 2 million.

[BluegrassProf]

Zenyatta-Tourette's aside...
Can't wait.Egads...neither can I. :ThmbUp:

For once, I'm with Gary S.: haven't nearly bottomed QR out, and he's the responsive type...looking forward to seeing him with some stronger competition...

[Charlie D]

Been in against stronger (Blame) and got run down BP


Think we know why JV was looking around now, he has been getting away with it at 9f against tomato cans, but in against tougher, he don't quite do it.

8f for him at BC, not 10f imho.

[ArlJim78]

with all due respect to Gary Stevens, no way does Quality Road win the classic.

[gm10]

The Euros have adopted Zenyatta as their own apparently...

nah it was Steve Millar
Canadian I believe

but yes we do like her
transcends borders, she does

[DeanT]

Interested to see what CJ says about the final time.

[GregReinhart]

with all due respect to Gary Stevens, no way does Quality Road win the classic.

The horse should be in the BC Dirt Mile but they would never do that.

[BluegrassProf]

Think we know why JV was looking around now, he has been getting away with it at 9f against tomato cans, but in against tougher, he hasn't quite done it.

8f for him at BC, not 10f imho.Perhaps a bit more accurate on the former, but remains to be seen. Not that I necessarily disagree outright w/ the latter...

[Charlie D]

Watching last two BP, he would be a chuck in my opinion if he went to Classic.

[DeanT]

I was too busy turning to MTH to get knocked out of the pick 4 to look at the fractions too close. Hmm. 150 and a heavy stick.

How is that track today? Slow? Anyone watch the whole card?

[gm10]

Perhaps a bit more accurate on the former, but remains to be seen. Not that I necessarily disagree outright w/ the latter...

I don't think he is without a chance in the Classic. It all depends on who is in the race. He needs to be softened up somewhat, even if he isn't the most natural 10F horse. Quality animal.

[Charlie D]

BP

Beaten 5 lengths in Travers (decent fractions) beaten again by Summer Bird in JCGC ( QR setting slowish fractions)

He's not going to get slowish fractions in Classiic to help him.

[gm10]

BP

Beaten 5 lengths in Travers (decent fractions) beaten again by Summer Bird in JCGC ( QR setting slowish fractions)

He's not going to get slowish fractions in Classiic to help him.

Yes, but Summer Bird was a very good horse in his own right and QR was (imo) brought back too quickly after the injury. Plus, we don't know who will be in the Classic. Who will want to take on QR for the lead, knowing that Zenyatta, Lucky and Blame are in the same race? I agree that he doesn't look like the most likely candidate, but I wouldn't mind backing him in a field of 8 @ 15/1.

[Charlie D]

Yes Summer Bird was, but so is Zen, Blame, Lookin, he'll not be ITM if they run thier races.

[bisket]

cohen allowing johnny v to circle him in the first 1/16 is what killed the race for me. when you see a jock on the best speed pull that maneuver you know if you figure to get the speed pinned on the rail you have a chance for a score.... this little maneuver by borel is what sealed a similar analysis for rachel alexandra back in june.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=37TaDAMDIkw

my wager was based on quality running the rail early with the pace killing stalkers like convocation and mythical power. when you can find a weakness like this for the best horse in the race it gives you an opportunity to bet against a short priced speed horse:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QqC_YdG7GtM&feature=related

going hungry tonight :bang:

[Relwob Owner]

cohen allowing johnny v to circle him in the first 1/16 is what killed the race for me. when you see a jock on the best speed pull that maneuver you know if you figure to get the speed pinned on the rail you have a chance for a score.... this little maneuver by borel is what sealed a similar analysis for rachel alexandra back in june.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=37TaDAMDIkw

my wager was based on quality running the rail early with the pace killing stalkers like convocation and mythical power. when you can find a weakness like this for the best horse in the race it gives you an opportunity to bet against a short priced speed horse:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QqC_YdG7GtM&feature=related

going hungry tonight :bang:


So you are blaming picking this race incorrectly on a jockey maneuver? I am surprised that a Real Handicapper like yourself would make such post race excuses.....

[gm10]

Yes Summer Bird was, but so is Zen, Blame, Lookin

No doubt about that. But I just can't rule out a horse like QR at this stage. If there is a chance he gets an easy lead, there is a chance he wins. Look at Cape Blanco. No way was that the best animal in the race, even after receiving 7lbs. But he still won.

[Charlie D]

He's got any Easy lead in Whitney and Blame ran him down, he will do it again, Zen will run him down too, just like she runs everyone else down. Lookin probably will too, Rachel probably will too if she goes to Classic.

[DeanT]

His two previous big numbers he looked like the fastest horse in the world, now not so much off his last two races.

Such is horse racing I guess.

[gm10]

He's got any Easy lead in Whitney and Blame ran him down, he will do it again, Zen will run him down too, just like she runs everyone else down. Lookin probably will too, Rachel probably will too if she goes to Classic.

After a lay-off and a dumb ride (last 2F) and giving 5lbs away to Blame. If they run that very same race on equal weight terms next month, I think QR wins. Not knocking Blame, but I think he got favourable circumstances in the Whitney.

[Charlie D]

Look at his PP, watch his races, most were against tomato cans. In against decent he is done by Blame, Summerd Bird X 2

QR is a miler imho who gets away with further when race dynamics help, Mile is where he should head.


If you want to bet him in Classic i wish you well.

[gm10]

Look at his PP, watch his races, most were against tomato cans. In against decent he is done by Blame, Summer Bir X 2

QR is a miler imho and thats where he should head at BC.


If you want to bet him i wish you well.

If he's the right price on the day, I'll have no problem backing him.
He's a horse who can win a grade 1 over 10F if the circumstances are right imo.

[Grits]

Is this place not international or what? We have two Brits going, back and forth, about American horses, east coast and west coast, on a native New Yorker's message board.

This could never be a bad thing!

I can't speak for others, but I know far less about the Euros--that is--until they board the plane bound for Breeders' Cup. Unless, of course, its a star like Goldikova.

[gm10]

Is this place not international or what? We have two Brits going, back and forth, about American horses, east coast and west coast, on a native New Yorker's message board.

This could never be a bad thing!

I can't speak for others, but I know far less about the Euros--that is--until they board the plane bound for Breeders' Cup. Unless, of course, its a star like Goldikova.

no looking up ... who's Goldi's usual rabbit?

[Charlie D]

GM

Thinking about it, i've seen QR before, but he had another name. His name was George Washington. Go watch his first Classic, because same will happen to QR imho - NO PETROL LEFT.


Grits

We aim to please :)

[bisket]

He's got any Easy lead in Whitney and Blame ran him down, he will do it again, Zen will run him down too, just like she runs everyone else down. Lookin probably will too, Rachel probably will too if she goes to Classic.
charley yes time wise he got an easy lead in the whitney, but i think the fact he wasn't comfortable has more to do with the poor stretch performance in that race. this is biggest problem i have with pace figures. a horse can run a half in 47 and change and 3/4 in 112 and be comfortable and look like a million bucks. he can also run that time in a stressful situation (my contention is for a rachel and quality being trapped along the rail rates as a stressful situation) and give the lead up in the stretch. now figure makers will say oh the track was slow and the pace to fast and this is why the horse faded in the stretch. yes sometimes this may be the case, but i think race dynamics play just as an important role in the equation. a dynamic that causes a horse to tire or not be aggressive in the stretch can be different for all horses!!

[Grits]

I told ya GM, may know her . . . .don't know her rabbit. And know, only primarily, when she's on the grounds she just loves to win races. So, there ya go.

Y'all carry on--don't want to take you off topic.

[Charlie D]

Bisket



All the best betting QR in Classic if thats what your going to do. I'll place lay him against Zen, Blame, Lookin, Rachel.


No point keep repeating myself. I'm done.

[DeanT]

Fellow moderators are not immune to the wrath of the emoticon only zapper!!!

Glad CJ is not here or your post would be toast :)

OK, back to the battle of Tipperary :)

[bisket]

So you are blaming picking this race incorrectly on a jockey maneuver? I am surprised that a Real Handicapper like yourself would make such post race excuses.....
i try to predict pace in situations that the odds of the horses getting the biggest benefit from a probable scenerio are long enough to warrant a play. the horses i figured to get biggest benefit were better than 20-1. last week i did the exact same thing and one of them actually won. go figure.. although i didn't collect. which seems to be my luck lately....

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=omB-HVs6sRw

[Robert Fischer]

its not out of the question that either he and mine that bird could step up and beat me. i just don't give performances early in a horses 3 year old year alot of credence unless the horse shows it again. could this be the race that happens? yes! thats why its gambling

Mine That Bird is not competitive here at all.

While you can't find form or condition in a race from a past campaign, you can get useful information on things like stamina, distance, surface preference etc...

I thought it was significant that Mythical Power ran a standout race going 9F dirt near a strong pace, in a race that closers stormed the wire. Better yet it was essentially hidden form, and most money in the pool wouldn't be aware that it was even a standout performance over the distance and surface.

looking further at his actual form following each race, and it was clear to see that he is best on dirt, that he has had a few races that he was put against a grain or bias and no or few horses would have done anything in some of those spots, and he still managed to rack up $600K.
Unfortunately Quality Road was in the race.

[bisket]

Bisket



All the best betting QR in Classic if thats what your going to do. I'll place lay him against Zen, Blame, Lookin, Rachel.


No point keep repeating myself. I'm done.
he won't be my wager in that race. at best he figures to finish second.

[Charlie D]

he won't be my wager in that race

Glad to hear that Bisket.

[bisket]

Mine That Bird is not competitive here at all.

While you can't find form or condition in a race from a past campaign, you can get useful information on things like stamina, distance, surface preference etc...

I thought it was significant that Mythical Power ran a standout race going 9F dirt near a strong pace, in a race that closers stormed the wire. Better yet it was essentially hidden form, and most money in the pool wouldn't be aware that it was even a standout performance over the distance and surface.

looking further at his actual form following each race, and it was clear to see that he is best on dirt, that he has had a few races that he was put against a grain or bias and no or few horses would have done anything in some of those spots, and he still managed to rack up $600K.
Unfortunately Quality Road was in the race.
my wager was based on arcordoro on the outside of quality pushing quality into fast fractions. i didn't like convocation or mythical in this situation. although i thought convocation had enough quality to stay in the picture. i think the race played to mythical power's strengths. all i really do in handicapping a race like this is take a probable situation and play it out according to the pps the best that i can. i thought the pace would be much faster throughout the first 1/2 mile. quality and mythical received the best trip that played to their strengths. they ran outside the speed which made them the aggressors at a slow pace. its not surprising they excelled in that role.

[PaceAdvantage]

Is this place not international or what? We have two Brits going, back and forth, about American horses, east coast and west coast, on a native New Yorker's message board.Slight correction. I'm not a native New Yorker...I was born in Ohio.

[cj]

Interested to see what CJ says about the final time.

I played golf today, but I'll chime in later. I'm pretty certain we can finally lay the 121 GP Beyer to rest.

[Grits]

Slight correction. I'm not a native New Yorker...I was born in Ohio.

When I saw Bill's post, I was wonderin', Lord what have I said wrong . . . . . :lol:

[cj]

Interested to see what CJ says about the final time.

I will add it is getting a little tiresome having NYRA run like 50 races the last three big G1 days (Travers, Personal Ensign, Woodward) and they can't find enough to horses to run another two turn dirt race on any of the cards. It is pretty sad.

[JustRalph]

Slight correction. I'm not a native New Yorker...I was born in Ohio.

With an Air Force Connection too! :ThmbUp: It puts you in a fine light !!

[RXB]

Quality Road wants a tenth furlong about as much as Rachel Alexandra wants a tenth furlong. He looked like he didn't even much want the ninth furlong today. Will take a stand against him anytime at 10f... even though he is the greatest frontrunner since Ack Ack... ( or is that the :4: :6: th greatest frontrunner since Ack Ack?)

Beyer figure comes up 108 for me. About three lengths below par. 6f pace figure right around par. Not a particularly impressive performance by times or via my visual impressions. Frankly, whenever QR meets a real G1 stakes horse, he seems to lose. (Summer Bird twice, Blame)

[PaceAdvantage]

Say what you want about Quality Road and his connections, but one thing is for certain. Thank goodness Pletcher didn't listen to some of the armchair quarterbacks around here who postulated he should have been either immediately retired or laid up for about a year after his gate "freak out" in the BC Classic.