Longshots for Friday, Sep 3

[Ray2000]

Try a different font, maybe that'll help:)

Betting Win and Key Box Exactas

Georgian R9.........8 w/4,7 ...Terror Time-8/1
Scott Zeron has been on a driving "terror" (23%) and now it's Terror Time
The 2 will take action even after 24 days off scratch lame...toss out?

Meadows R6..........5 w/4,6 ...An Original-8/1
Need Palone #2 and Brett #7 to do battle early and knock each other out, if they do
this could pay nicely with Hall and Stillings or Charlie

Mohawk R10..........7 w/2,8 ...Grin Goddess-8/1
Odds should be there even with the class drop, nice closer she has bested the 10,9,3,1,4 before
The beast #8 will be tough

Rideau-Carleton R13.4,3,1 ...Mood Rings-8/1 Debster-10/1 Wannabee Panic-20/1
Horrible Morning Line, but box these 3 in Exacta unless they are 3 crowd choices.

Vernon R7...........3 w/6,8 ...Casimir Honkytonk-12/1
"Invadia from Batavia". She's not performing this year like last (7 for 30 $30k)
but what can you expect from a trainer named Mihajlo Zdjelar....:)

Good Luck to Everyone.

[markgoldie]

Hey Ray:

Jamming this in here rather than starting a different thread that nobody cares about. Anyway, know you use TM because we've discussed it before. The other day I saw something yet again new from them- the other new thing being the multiple track variant changes on one card. This time we have an adjustment on the same card for the pace of the race. Think it was from separate divisions of a class at Springfield. In one of the divisions they went the half in around 1:00.3 and a mile in 2:01.2 and in the other they went the half in 1:03.2 and a mile in 2:02. They gave the horses in the 2:02 mile higher numbers than those in the 2:01.2 mile.

Personally, I think they're right as I have been saying here for some time- that the numbers have to be adjusted to pace. But this is the first time I've seen them do it.

Anyway, it seems like they're tinkering with the algorithm in a number of new ways which is actually making it harder, not easier for me. Since I crunch a whole bunch of their numbers on a daily basis, now I have to worry about what they've already adjusted and haven't adjusted.

And, of course, this from a company that is trying new advanced methods of projecting numbers, while blissfully turning a blind eye to their track-to-track gross inequalities. As I have said before, this 5 point discrepancy between BMLP and MAY numbers is totally unforgivable because the very same horses are cross-shipping all the time. But there are discrepancies all over the place. When The Red Mile opens, we see it badly exposed, as the M1 numbers are stronger than Indy numbers, which are stronger than SCD numbers, which are stronger then TR numbers, etc.

[Ray2000]

Mark


They gave the horses in the 2:02 mile higher numbers than those in the 2:01.2 mile.

To be sure ... Do you mean the DTV is different for 2 pp lines from 2 different races on the same day, same track (the 2 divisions) due to the pace of each race or are you referring to some other ratings such as the speed, class or pace numbers being adjusted by the DTV ?

I haven't noticed these changes because I rely on my own speed rating calcs and trend analysis to come up with an individual's projected Speed for today's race. (that's how I get by with the 'cheap' program)

So I need to refresh my memory on the value added programs and make sure I'm looking at the numbers you're talking about, but I wanted to clear this up for me first.

Sorry, sometimes this old brain gets lost...:)

[markgoldie]

I think I threw the thing away, so I don't have it in front of me now.

What I am talking about is their individual-horse speed rating for the race (otherwise known as a fig). In the race in question, they did not change the track variant as I recall because the races were back-to-back, like the third and the fourth. Normally, with the same track variant, the faster the final time, the higher the spd. number. Now, for some time, they have been doing some very minor tinkering with trips and or post positions when creating the final spd. number. So, if a horse had an outside post and dead-heated with another horse who had an inside post, they might give the horse with the outside post a point higher, even though they both finished in the identical times. But these adjustments are only a point here and there.

This time, we have horses who raced a second slower getting a higher rating with the same DTV. The only explanation I can come up with for this is they are adjusting for the much slower pace in the slower final-time event. And I can't remember ever having seen that before.

[Ray2000]

OK, now I get you, and it falls in line with my long time contention that TM does not account for trailing post positions. (Not this case but others). I used to have a list of races where the furthest outside post and the first trailer finished in an almost dead heat, and the trailer was rated way above the outsider, as if he started further out. I'm guessing here, but I think they used older T-bred formulas when they started Harness Ratings and trailers weren't considered.

Anyway the "grain of salt" is quite large when looking at some ratings.


BTW

Meadows R6..........
I got the Pace I wanted but ...........there was a Joker in the deck....:bang:
26.4 27.3 27.2 30.2

3 Palazzo Princess Eric Ledford 23.40 13.60 6.60
4 Natalie Richard Stillings ................. 8.40 9.20
5 An Original Tony Hall ..........................15.40 :eek:

Bet Type Runners Pay Out Exacta 3/4 170.00 Trifecta 3/4/5 881.60