SARATOGA $443,275 CARRY OVER, VEGAS PROPOSITION BET

[formula_2002]

SHOULD THE PIC 6 BE HIT TODAY, WHAT ODDS WOULD YOU THINK A VEGAS BOOK WOULD LAY THAT THE PAYOUT WILL BE LESS THAN FAIR VALUE?

FAIR VALUE = (1/(ODDS+1))/BOOK PERCENTAGE) FOR LEG1*LEG2*LEG3*LEG4*LEG5*LEG6.

[senortout]

SHOULD THE PIC 6 BE HIT TODAY, WHAT ODDS WOULD YOU THINK A VEGAS BOOK WOULD LAY THAT THE PAYOUT WILL BE LESS THAN FAIR VALUE?

FAIR VALUE = (1/(ODDS+1))/BOOK PERCENTAGE) FOR LEG1*LEG2*LEG3*LEG4*LEG5*LEG6.
dunno, but along those lines, Twinspires Players Pool is already closed, at $60,010! now the panel of experts puts in their selections using the $60 grand. This might make you stop and think what you are up against. I had thought about putting in a few bucks but did the math. If they (Twinspires PP) took down the whole pool it would be ok. They have hit it before.

[formula_2002]

ODDS (1/ODDS+1)/1.19
1.4 0.350140056
3.3 0.195427008
4.2 0.161603103
3.85 0.173265182
9.7 0.078536087
7.4 0.100040016 1.50533E-05

FAIR VALUE FOR A $2 TICKET $132861
$2 pic 6 payout was.......... .... $377,883

IF YOU BOUGHT 3 DIFFERENT COMBINATION $2.00 TICKETS, YOU WOULD HAVE BEEN SHORT CHANGED :rolleyes:

[formula_2002]

dunno, but along those lines, Twinspires Players Pool is already closed, at $60,010! now the panel of experts puts in their selections using the $60 grand. This might make you stop and think what you are up against. I had thought about putting in a few bucks but did the math. If they (Twinspires PP) took down the whole pool it would be ok. They have hit it before.

http://www.twinspires.com/content/news/2010/09/01/twinspires-players%E2%80%99-pool-takes-down-hefty-saratoga-double-carryover%21


TwinSpires Players’ Pool Takes Down Hefty Saratoga Double Carryover!
Wednesday, September 01
6:18 pm • Tags: Twinspires

Congratulations to all of our Players and our handicapping team at Bris!!
Today's Players' Pool held ONE OF ONLY FIVE winning Pick 6 tickets that returned a pre-tax total of $377,883. With thirty-one (31) 5 of 6 tickets coming back as well, the entire pool posted a gross (post-tax) return of $313,886 ($408,356 gross pre-tax).

Congratluations once again and thank you for participating in the TwinSpires.com Players` Pool.

$313,886/2= $156943

$156943/$60010= $2.61

what all that means is, for every $1 bet, the return was $2.61 for
net post -taxed profit of $1.61 or roughly 8/5 odds.

http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/instant_pdf.cgi?type=inc&country=USA&track=SAR&date=2010-09-01&race=10

[garyscpa]

http://www.twinspires.com/content/news/2010/09/01/twinspires-players%E2%80%99-pool-takes-down-hefty-saratoga-double-carryover%21


TwinSpires Players’ Pool Takes Down Hefty Saratoga Double Carryover!
Wednesday, September 01
6:18 pm • Tags: Twinspires

Congratulations to all of our Players and our handicapping team at Bris!!
Today's Players' Pool held ONE OF ONLY FIVE winning Pick 6 tickets that returned a pre-tax total of $377,883. With thirty-one (31) 5 of 6 tickets coming back as well, the entire pool posted a gross (post-tax) return of $313,886 ($408,356 gross pre-tax).

Congratluations once again and thank you for participating in the TwinSpires.com Players` Pool.

$313,886/2= $156943

$156943/$60010= $2.61

what all that means is, for every $1 bet, the return was $2.61 for
net post -taxed profit of $1.61 or roughly 8/5 odds.

http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/instant_pdf.cgi?type=inc&country=USA&track=SAR&date=2010-09-01&race=10

If I was a betting man, I'd bet that return was more than 4/1.:bang:

[sammy the sage]

they bet 61k...got back 313k...that's 4/1 in simple math :rolleyes:

[horses4courses]

Who takes the hit from the IRS?
I know that it will be deducted from everyone's winnings, but there will only be one W2-G form filled out. Maybe Twinspires files it as a corporation?


These huge tickets they put together, imo, are a joke.
The horse-betting equivalent of communism.
Pool all your resources for little return to the individual.

It's all well and good to earn the bragging rights of taking down a large part of a major PK6 pool, but for what? So, you triple or quadruple your investment.
That was a good day. I'm pretty sure, though, that if you played a part in all of their large tickets, you are in the red overall - and likely to stay that way.

I will grant them this.
It's pretty cheap publicity for Twinspires.

[formula_2002]

they bet 61k...got back 313k...that's 4/1 in simple math :rolleyes:
313 was the return for a $2 bet
they got back 156.5 for a $1 bet
and 60 thousand was their own money.

that should work out to about 8/5

[garyscpa]

313 was the return for a $2 bet
they got back 156.5 for a $1 bet
and 60 thousand was their own money.

that should work out to about 8/5

How am I going to be a long-term capital winner at those odds? :D

[sammy the sage]

1st of all..."Toga" has NO $1 p/6
2nd..61k was the TOTAL invested..PERIOD
3rd..313k was take AFTER tax's

[sammy the sage]

I'll make this EVEN simplier :rolleyes:

if you pluncked down $250 in this pool you're getting back a few bucks over$1250...just over 1k in profit...

now whether it was worth the risk or not...

[formula_2002]

I'll make this EVEN simplier :rolleyes:

if you pluncked down $250 in this pool you're getting back a few bucks over$1250...just over 1k in profit...

now whether it was worth the risk or not...
GREAT MINDS ENDURE;

TRY THIS
YOUR $250 IS .00416 PARTS OF THE 60010
YOUR SHARE OF THE $156943 X .00416 = $652
652- YOUR 250 = A PROFIT OF 402.
402/250 = 1.6 OR 8/5 ODDS.
IS THIS A FAIR RETURN?
IT DEPENDS ON THE THE EXPECTED PROBABILITY OF THE BET
AND I GATHER ONLY TWINSPIRES KNOWS.

MY GUT FEELING IS I'D RATHER BE PLAYING THE COME LINE FOR A POINT OF 6 WITH A 10X BACK BET. :)

[sammy the sage]

I was wrong...they ACTUALLY PAID 5x's the money...vs some self proclaimed THEORETICAL nonsensical pay-off projections posted by other's :lol:

[garyscpa]

I was wrong...they ACTUALLY PAID 5x's the money...vs some self proclaimed THEORETICAL nonsensical pay-off projections posted by other's :lol:

Yes, Formula lives in his own little world. :)

[skate]

Who takes the hit from the IRS?
I know that it will be deducted from everyone's winnings, but there will only be one W2-G form filled out. Maybe Twinspires files it as a corporation?


These huge tickets they put together, imo, are a joke.
The horse-betting equivalent of communism.
Pool all your resources for little return to the individual.

It's all well and good to earn the bragging rights of taking down a large part of a major PK6 pool, but for what? So, you triple or quadruple your investment.
That was a good day. I'm pretty sure, though, that if you played a part in all of their large tickets, you are in the red overall - and likely to stay that way.

I will grant them this.
It's pretty cheap publicity for Twinspires.

good one #4, on the "poolall etc....

[formula_2002]

Yes, Formula lives in his own little world. :)
apparently..

where's the error?

$313,886/2= $156943

$156943/$60010= $2.61

what all that means is, for every $1 bet, the return was $2.61 for
net post -taxed profit of $1.61 or roughly 8/5 odds.

[garyscpa]

apparently..

where's the error?

$313,886/2= $156943

$156943/$60010= $2.61

what all that means is, for every $1 bet, the return was $2.61 for
net post -taxed profit of $1.61 or roughly 8/5 odds.

You are saying that they receive only $156,943 for their $60,010 bet, when, in fact, they received $313,886 for their $60,010 bet.

[formula_2002]

You are saying that they receive only $156,943 for their $60,010 bet, when, in fact, they received $313,886 for their $60,010 bet.
hummmm


$313,886/($60010/2)= $10.48

what all that means is, for every $2 bet, the return was $10.48 for
net post -taxed profit of $8.48 or $4.24-1 odds.

thanks

twinspires has posted there pic 6 plays.
it's now possible to calculate the 'expected" return vs the actual return.

[garyscpa]

[QUOTE=formula_2002]hummmm


$313,886/($60010/2)= $10.48

what all that means is, for every $2 bet, the return was $10.48 for
net post -taxed profit of $8.48 or $4.24-1 odds.

thanks

/QUOTE]

You've got it now.:)

[formula_2002]

[QUOTE=formula_2002]hummmm


$313,886/($60010/2)= $10.48

what all that means is, for every $2 bet, the return was $10.48 for
net post -taxed profit of $8.48 or $4.24-1 odds.

thanks

/QUOTE]

You've got it now.:)
I calculated the probability of their ticket #1, the winning ticket having a cost of $30,0000. It came out to an expected probability of 20% or 4-1 odds.

I'll caalculate the win probability of the remaining 6 tickets and post them here. i have the races in my data base so its not difficult to do other than checking off the right horse on each ticket.

what i ultimately want to know is the combined probability of all the tickts that consumed the $60010 bet.

not quite sure how i'll do that.