SARATOGA'S P-6 CARRYOVER

[canleakid]

JUST A FRIENDLY REMINDER TO SAVE A FEW $'s FOR TOMORROW's P-6 CARRYOVER OF $443,275.00 @ SARATAOGA ;) GOOD$$$LUCK$$$$$$

[Phantombridgejumpe]

I don't know how the mechanics would work, but I'd like to be a part.

[netbet]

If you like turf racing, this Pick Six is for you.

5 of the 6 races are on the turf.

5th: Mcl 25K 3yo+ going 1M on grass.
6th: 12.5K Clm going 6f on dirt.
7th: NY 2yo's MSW going 1-1/16 on grass.
8th: The P.G. Johnson 70K overnight -2yo fillies going 1-1/16 on grass.
9th: 25K Clm 3yo+ going 5f on grass.
10th: 20K Clm 3yo+ going 1-1/16 on grass.

Looks like a decent card to start the week.

[positive4th]

If you like turf racing, this Pick Six is for you.

5 of the 6 races are on the turf.

5th: Mcl 25K 3yo+ going 1M on grass.
6th: 12.5K Clm going 6f on dirt.
7th: NY 2yo's MSW going 1-1/16 on grass.
8th: The P.G. Johnson 70K overnight -2yo fillies going 1-1/16 on grass.
9th: 25K Clm 3yo+ going 5f on grass.
10th: 20K Clm 3yo+ going 1-1/16 on grass.

Looks like a decent card to start the week.

I consider myself a Turf sprint specialist in terms of handicapping races - - I say that with some trepidation, but my results there have been good for most of this year. (So naturally most of the turf races are routes!!)

Anyhow, here's my plan for this P6 - - - come home tonight, eat a nice balanced dinner, and then sit down with the form(s) and begin ruling horses out. I'm already guessing a few things about this card, namely:

-- 5th and 7th races will probably be the toughest to get a good handle on.

-- I'm guaranteed to go fairly deep in the 10th, b/c turf routes at Saratoga just seem to warrant it these days.

-- I'll probably be spending moderately on the entire proposition. Carryovers tend to attract SO MUCH money on the obvious combinations that sometimes they still wind up paying relative peanuts, so I'll spend more $$ than usual, but I'm really going to try to smoke out 1 or 2 favorites that have no shot, and find the mid-priced winners that will take their places in a winning sequence. If I miss, no sweat. (Most ppl say they're going to do this, then they just fill out a $128 ticket full of chalk and sweat it out.)

[canleakid]

I don't know how the mechanics would work, but I'd like to be a part.

Well it might be late for this ONE, but if we get a group of real players we could start a pool and play all the Big Carryovers, send the money to the person who will buy the ticket,via paypal so thats a starting point for the next one!!! So lets all who want to TALK about ok

[Phantombridgejumpe]

I probably won't do a phantom ticket on here as I'm in a meeting that will start before scratches are out, but should be dry for the turf races.

[sammy the sage]

To be honest..the Wed. card is a Ball-buster...could go 5 deep EVERY race and feel CERTAIN that I'm gonna lose...

that means (of course) one of three things (w/my luck)...all chalk rolls home or somebody spends 20k+ to hit it or rolls over...

all that said..if anybody playing...you'd better include in the 7th #7..the aptly named Rocky Fortune :D :lol:

B.O.L. to those brave enough to go after.

[positive4th]

To be honest..the Wed. card is a Ball-buster...could go 5 deep EVERY race and feel CERTAIN that I'm gonna lose...

that means (of course) one of three things (w/my luck)...all chalk rolls home or somebody spends 20k+ to hit it or rolls over...

all that said..if anybody playing...you'd better include in the 7th #7..the aptly named Rocky Fortune :D :lol:

B.O.L. to those brave enough to go after.

Yeah, its a mess for sure............I'm considering going 3x3x5x1x1x2 for my main ticket, which would be a pretty do-able $180 play, but with back-up tickets it will get expensive, so I'm not sure.

One thing is for sure - - I'm not going to spend a ton on it, b/c the same thing always happens with big carryovers, and you're actually BETTER playing a small ticket into a giant card.

It'll be interesting to see the new handle into the pool tomorrow, as I'm pretty sure that the take-out goes up from 16 to 26% on multi-day carryovers for NYRA tracks.

[PhantomOnTour]

I could easily draw up a $100 ticket for the P3 on races 7-9 alone. This P6 is way too tough for someone with my bankroll.

[JustRalph]

One of my StableMail horses is coming back after a month off.

Dutrow has him entered in the PG Johnson Stakes (8th)

The horse is still a maiden.............8-1 on the morning line

:9: Believe in A.P.

Ballsy move ? Or dreaming ?

I like the horse......he got a bad trip last out and finished like he wanted another mile............

we shall see........

[positive4th]

Well, I think I'm opting for the only reasonable strategy that I can think of - -- - I'm going to play a ridiculously thin main ticket, and then spread out in individual races on the back-up tickets, so for now I'm posting the MAIN ticket, but I'll add the others and/or reserve the right to edit this one based on scratches in the AM.

Main Ticket ($4):

:1: ( :1a: ) :5:
:3:
:5: :10: :11:
:1: ( :1a: ) :3:
:2: :6:
:4:

So 2x1x3x2x2x1 = $96 on a $4 Base Unit, back-up tickets to follow in the morning.

I'm guessing at this rate that I'll wind up with 5 or 6 tickets total and maybe $550-$750 tied up in it.

[positive4th]

One of my StableMail horses is coming back after a month off.

Dutrow has him entered in the PG Johnson Stakes (8th)

The horse is still a maiden.............8-1 on the morning line

:9: Believe in A.P.

Ballsy move ? Or dreaming ?

I like the horse......he got a bad trip last out and finished like he wanted another mile............

we shall see........

I was really interested in that horse and will definitely get him worked into a ticket somewhere - - - I think he's a nice horse, honestly. If the pace is hot, he should have a strong closing run. He liked the move from dirt to turf, and get Julien Leparoux, always a solid jock on turf.

I also like the pedigree (AP Indy, obv.), the recent works (so the month off shouldn't be an issue..............yeah, I really like this one alot.

[positive4th]

:5:
:3:
:5: :10: :11:
:1: ( :1a: ) :3:
:2: :6:
:4:

I just decided to single 3 legs in my main ($4 base) ticket - - - so this "main" is $48, and the back-ups will rotate through the singles (so I'll have a spread in R5, R6, R10), along with a HUGE spread in R7, and we'll see about R8 & R9.

[PaceAdvantage]

Well it might be late for this ONE, but if we get a group of real players we could start a pool and play all the Big Carryovers, send the money to the person who will buy the ticket,via paypal so thats a starting point for the next one!!! So lets all who want to TALK about okBoard policy prohibits the discussion of any such group plays that involve the exchange of money amongst the group...something to do with varying state laws concerning placing bets with other people's money.

[eastie]

pre scratch spread play

:1::2::5:
:1::2:
:2::5::10:
:3::4::6::8::9:
:7::8:
:3::5:

[positive4th]

Posting tickets was getting annoying. Here's an A-B-C Matrix that will serve the same purpose:


R5 A :1: :3: :5:


R6 A :3: B :1: :2: C :4: :5: :6: :7:


R7 A :5: :10: :11: B :1: :6: C :2: :7: :8: :9:


R8 A :3: B :1: :6: C :2: :4: :8: :9:


R9 A :6: :10: C :1: :2: :3: :4: :7: :9:


R10 A :1: :4: :9: C :2: :7:

[positive4th]

Posting tickets was getting annoying. Here's an A-B-C Matrix that will serve the same purpose:


R5 A :1: :3: :5:


R6 A :3: B :1: :2: C :4: :5: :6: :7:


R7 A :5: :10: :11: B :1: :6: C :2: :7: :8: :9:


R8 A :3: B :1: :6: C :2: :4: :8: :9:


R9 A :6: :10: C :1: :2: :3: :4: :7: :9:


R10 A :1: :4: :9: C :2: :7:


this should wind up being about 8 tickets and $600, I think.

[Steven Kolb]

__
For the pre-scratch report, the following will be the backbone of my tickets. Tentatively, eight tickets = $108 & $72 & four to six $32 wagers

The following selections are heavily incorporated in to most tickets. There will be a few fav's and longshots, but these guys are the backbone...the tickets will be well mixed wtih a variety of possibilities.


3,5 / 2,6 / 5,6 / 2,8 / 2,8 / 4,6 / 4,5

On NO tickets will I be covering these ML Fav's ...
R7 #1 and R8 #3 - - I believe they are false faves and beatable

It's very late.
Really wish you all well !!

See you at the IRS window!

sk
:

[canleakid]

Board policy prohibits the discussion of any such group plays that involve the exchange of money amongst the group...something to do with varying state laws concerning placing bets with other people's money.


ok, sorry about that, will not happen again :blush: :blush:

[canleakid]

EARLY QUICK P-4:

8-1-4 // 1-2-7 // 6-5 // 5-1-3 =$54.00

LATE P-4:

6-5-1 // 9-3-6 // 10-3-9 // 1-3-9 =$81.00


THE BIG P-6 :cool:

5-1 // 2-3 // 6-5 // 9-3-6 // 10-3 / /1-9-3 =$288.00

[netbet]

My Contenders....runners I will use to create a few tickets.

5th: :4: :5: :7:
6th: :2:
7th: :5: :6: :7: :8:
8th: :1: :4: :6: :9:
9th: :4: :6: :10:
10th: :1: :2:

[Beachbabe]

I wont be betting a pick 6. Don't have the "resources" to make a wothwhile ticket.
Like Canleakid, I'll play an early pick 4:

:4:
:1: :2: :4:
:2: :6:
:1: :4:

Race 2: Mdn claimers; a lot of firsters .Who knows? I'll single this race:
#4 Mama Get Even; trainer is decent with firsters; horse had a gate work here that is faster than most of these had at the dist

Race 3:
#1 Up in Lights has had 2 tough trips in her last 2; daughter of Smart Strike should love distance & grass, but needs a better ride from Borel
#2 Flourish is Mott/Desormeaux who was in tight late in last
#4 Dandyna moved late off a slow pace; gets Leparoux

Race 4:
#2 Bad Action off 6 weeks for Pletcher; gets rider who's had the most success with him in return.
#6 Regal Ransom ; Godolphin runner exits Suburban and has had 2 bullet works since. Will be speed here

Race 5:
#1 Arr Pirates Booty gets back on what looks to be preferred surface. 200k purchase gets hot turf rider in afield he should beat.
#4 Stroke turf bred started first on dirt for turf trainer .May have been all he could get into at the time & may have prepped him for this. Needs to break better today.

[formula_2002]

MY $15,000 TICKET
1,2,3,5,7/ 1,3,5,6/ 5,7,8/ 2,4,6,8,9/ 1,3,6,7,9/ 1,3,4,9,10

[46zilzal]

3rd :1: :7: :6:

[PhantomOnTour]

Said I wasn't playing the P6, but I lied....hey, when the powerball gets up there I buy a ticket, ya' know?

Here's my powerball ticket:

R5 :2: :5:
R6 :1: :6:
R7 :1: :6:
R8 :2: :9:
R9 :6: :10:
R10 :8:

[46zilzal]

4th :7: :5: :1:

[46zilzal]

5th :6: :9: :3:

[speed]

Good Luck all in the Pick 6

[menifee]

Good Luck all in the Pick 6

Sorry guys - don't mean to redboard, but have been too busy to post this:

3,4,5,7,​WT,2,​WT,1,2,3,4,6,7,8,9,10,​WT,1,2,4,9,​ WT,1,9,​WT,1,4,9

$1728

[positive4th]

well, most tickets are alive for me through the first two legs - - - I'll admit I thought very little of the :6: in R6, glad I turned out to be right :eek:

[Beachbabe]

Late Pick 4:

:8: :9:
:6: :9:
:3: :6: :10:
:1:

Good luck everyone .

[PhantomOnTour]

Well that #9 Newman Rocks sure looked nice on the track, but he isn't on top on any ticket in this race...like the :1: :6: :10: with big worries about the :8: ...

Let's go EX: :6: :10: w :1: :6: :8: :10: and a win bet on the :8:

[menifee]

Sorry guys - don't mean to redboard, but have been too busy to post this:

3,4,5,7,​WT,2,​WT,1,2,3,4,6,7,8,9,10,​WT,1,2,4,9,​ WT,1,9,​WT,1,4,9

$1728

Lesson 1 - if you hit the ALL button - use ALL and don't get cheap.

[speed]

Lesson 1 - if you hit the ALL button - use ALL and don't get cheap.
Was gonna bring it up pre race but erased what i was typing. Hopefully you miss a leg finishing up.

[46zilzal]

stake race we have :6: :8: up close and :9: coming from Southern Vermont late

[Steven Kolb]

Very much alive & well on the Pick 6
__

TwinSpires (I often wager their) put together a $60K Players pool. I now wish I had given them $10 so I could see their selections. I'd guess they put together 20 to 30+ tickets....a guess.

Does anyone have their selections?
__
Hope you're still alive going into the 8th race!

sk
:

[Beachbabe]

I see "Kolb" & "Netbet" are alive; cant tell on "46" or positive4th.......but anyway, best of luck to you peeps.

[JustRalph]

I just canceled my modest bets on the Dutrow horse in the 8th

I made the bets earlier and just logged in with 10 min to post and he is

8/5..............

I will save my money for another day

[positive4th]

The :5: / :2: / :5: start was pretty good for my tickets, but I'm sure that there are a zilllion others still alive as well...........

Coming up on R8, I'm torn - - - my "top" pick, :6: , is super-obvious, much more so than my 2nd choices ( :1: & :9: ), and I have no idea how the AP Indy baby ( :9: ) is covered in the P6, so I may just cheer for the :6: and keep more options open in legs 5 & 6

[Beachbabe]

Graziano to knock 'em out in the 9th at Delaware at 5/2. I'm on it.

[positive4th]

The :5: / :2: / :5: start was pretty good for my tickets, but I'm sure that there are a zilllion others still alive as well...........

Coming up on R8, I'm torn - - - my "top" pick, :6: , is super-obvious, much more so than my 2nd choices ( :1: & :9: ), and I have no idea how the AP Indy baby ( :9: ) is covered in the P6, so I may just cheer for the :6: and keep more options open in legs 5 & 6

The :4: was a "C" Horse on 1 ticket for me, meaning I'm alive to :6: :10: / :1: :4: :9: in the last 2 legs.

Interesting Side-note, that :4: was 12-1 on the ML so should be paying siginificantly better in the P4 and P6 than he did in the intrarace pools.

[46zilzal]

I see "Kolb" & "Netbet" are alive; cant tell on "46" or positive4th.......but anyway, best of luck to you peeps.
Don't play horizontal bets

[positive4th]

I see "Kolb" & "Netbet" are alive; cant tell on "46" or positive4th.......but anyway, best of luck to you peeps.


I'm on life support, but still in it........see the above post :)

[positive4th]

As I mentioned, I'm alive to this combo with 2 races to go:

:6: :10: / :1: :4: :9:


In the interest of full disclosure, I have $820 wrapped up in 7 tickets, and 1 of those is still hanging on to the above combo.

Now, I'm thinking that with a 12-1 ML winning R8, there's enough implied value to my 1 living ticket to start hedging, so here goes:

- - I'm taking no extra pieces of the :6: or :10: in R9, wins will be enough for me as they'll keep me alive to 3 horses in the finale.

- - I'm taking 4 units to win on the :3: and 2 units to win on the :9: - - if one of those horses wins, it'll knock me out of the P6 but the win bets will almost cover my initial P6 costs.

- - So if anyone but the :3: :6: :9: :10: wins R9, I'll just bang my head on the wall and move on.

[speed]

this should wind up being about 8 tickets and $600, I think.
I use a similar A B C but looking at your's quickly would cost me at least 4-6 thousand to get a B and a C on same ticket.
I like your math of $600 better. :)

Good Luck

[positive4th]

I use a similar A B C but looking at your's quickly would cost me at least 4-6 thousand to get a B and a C on same ticket.
I like your math of $600 better. :)

Good Luck

Yeah, the :2: in R6 wound up being an A Horse this morning, so it actually started AAAC for me...............and the only "C"'s I actually put into any tickets were the ones for R8 and R10 - - and of course now the R10 ones are dead for me

[46zilzal]

9th :6: :1: :3:

[positive4th]

well, that was fun while it lasted............

[speed]

If Net played it he is alive to the 1 and 2

$56,000 and $169,000

Good Luck

[46zilzal]

10th :6: :1: :3:

[positive4th]

I'm alive to the :1: :4: :9: for 3 conso 5 of 6 payouts

[46zilzal]

10th :6: :1: :3:
six is not there any longer would like to say :9: as well but wrong wrong wrong

[menifee]

Wow - check out Crist's blog. He had the 10 as a B and was alive going into the last leg, but didn't use the 10. Going to pay 300k.

[RaceBookJoe]

__
For the pre-scratch report, the following will be the backbone of my tickets. Tentatively, eight tickets = $108 & $72 & four to six $32 wagers

The following selections are heavily incorporated in to most tickets. There will be a few fav's and longshots, but these guys are the backbone...the tickets will be well mixed wtih a variety of possibilities.


3,5 / 2,6 / 5,6 / 2,8 / 2,8 / 4,6 / 4,5

On NO tickets will I be covering these ML Fav's ...
R7 #1 and R8 #3 - - I believe they are false faves and beatable

It's very late.
Really wish you all well !!

See you at the IRS window!

sk
:

Did you type 2,8 twice or inventing the Pick 7 :) ps: your book was a good read. Tried a concept of yours today..didnt work out because of my horse deletions...but see ways i can twist it. thanks rbj

[positive4th]

Wow - check out Crist's blog. He had the 10 as a B and was alive going into the last leg, but didn't use the 10. Going to pay 300k.

Yeah, he had a great shot at cashing a big one..........wish I knew as much as him :)

[canleakid]

EARLY QUICK P-4:

8-1-4 // 1-2-7 // 6-5 // 5-1-3 =$54.00

LATE P-4:

6-5-1 // 9-3-6 // 10-3-9 // 1-3-9 =$81.00


THE BIG P-6 :cool:

5-1 // 2-3 // 6-5 // 9-3-6 // 10-3 / /1-9-3 =$288.00
RESULTS:

EARLY P-4: $2 Pick 4 :7-2-6-5 PAID $501.00

LATEP-4: $2 Pick 4: 5-4-4-10 PAID $14,708.00

P-6: 5-2-5-4-4-10 PAID $377,883.00

[formula_2002]

RESULTS:

EARLY P-4: $2 Pick 4 :7-2-6-5 PAID $501.00

LATEP-4: $2 Pick 4: 5-4-4-10 PAID $14,708.00

P-6: 5-2-5-4-4-10 PAID $377,883.00


ODDS (1/ODDS+1)/1.19
1.4 0.350140056
3.3 0.195427008
4.2 0.161603103
3.85 0.173265182
9.7 0.078536087
7.4 0.100040016 1.50533E-05

FAIR VALUE FOR A $2 TICKET 132861.
IF YOU BOUGHT 3 DIFFERENT COMBINATION $2.00 TICKETS, YOU WOULD HAVE BEEN SHORT CHANGED :)

[netbet]

Hi all,

Well I came close.

I actually singled 3 horses on the tickets that I put in.

Here are the 3 tickets I played:
Ticket 1:

:4: :5: :7:
:2:
:5: :6: :7: :8:
:4:
:4: :6:
:2:

Ticket 2:

:4: :5:
:2:
:5: :7: :8:
:4:
:4: :6:
:2:

Ticket 3:

:5:
:2:
:5: :6: :7: :8:
:4:
:4: :6:
:1: :2:

So I did okay....

[formula_2002]

Hi all,

Well I came close.

I actually singled 3 horses on the tickets that I put in.

Here are the 3 tickets I played:
Ticket 1:

:4: :5: :7:
:2:
:5: :6: :7: :8:
:4:
:4: :6:
:2:

Ticket 2:

:4: :5:
:2:
:5: :7: :8:
:4:
:4: :6:
:2:

Ticket 3:

:5:
:2:
:5: :6: :7: :8:
:4:
:4: :6:
:1: :2:

So I did okay....


KEEP IN MIND
5 OF 6 PAID JUST UNER $1000
FAIR VALVE WAS SAY $10,000 TO $13,000 FOR A $2.00 BET
IN THIS CASE A BETTER EXPRESSION FOR "..I DID OK " IS, " I ESCAPED!! :)

[speed]

KEEP IN MIND
5 OF 6 PAID JUST UNER $1000
FAIR VALVE WAS SAY $10,000 TO $13,000 FOR A $2.00 BET
IN THIS CASE A BETTER EXPRESSION FOR "..I DID OK " IS, " I ESCAPED!! :)
Is this Polish for Good Job

[Beachbabe]

5 of 6 sounds pretty fricken good to me.
Nice going Netbet.

[netbet]

Thanks everyone.

I have never hit 6/6 but this is now the 8th time I've had 5/6....some day :lol: