In Racing, why does IF matter more than HOW?

[Stillriledup]

In Pro sports, the leagues are set up to where the team who wins the Super Bowl or World Series actually has to face the very best competition in order to get the title. If you're a pro sports champion, you earned it and there's really no debate on 'who you beat'. If you win the Super Bowl or World Series, you beat either the very best competition or you beat someone who beat the best competition.

In horse racing, this isn't the case. You can pile up wins and NOT face the very best yet we seem to defend this type of 'schedule' if you will.

Zenyatta beat the very best one time, in the BC Classic. Her other 17 races were, for the most part, NOT the best competition. Also, in the BC Classic, she had her own personal surface and was completely rested and didnt have to ship. No doubt she was great and awesome in victory, but she did have a lot of advantages in her corner. She's never attempted the 3 'signature' races in her backyard despite those races coming up relatively weak compared to historical standards. Nobody is going to confuse Richard's Kid with Candy Ride.

I know the Z fanatics will say that she won the BC Classic, what more do you want. I just think that there has been too much 'ducking'. There's absolutely no reason she wasn't being pointed for the Pacific Classic this year. It was a million dollar race against a bunch of allowance horses, she would have been 1-5 in that race for a million bucks.

So anyway, to make a long point longer, some people seem to just want to forget about the competition and not 'debate' this stuff. They just want to say "Z is undefeated, i dont even want to discuss all that other stuff, she's one of the best horses ever"

Why not discuss it? Racing is set up so that an all time great horse candidate, like Z, doesn't have to race against the very best competition in order for some people to annoint her an all time great. For those of you who are in the Z-is-an-all-time-great corner, why do you just ignore that she's never raced one time in the SA hcp, HGC or Pac Classic? Not one time.

I was very impressed with her BC Classic win, but for her to have remained in a nice and easy comfort zone bugs me a bit. I wanted to see her do more, in her backyard, than what she's done. Some wanted her to tour the country and run more races on dirt tracks, all i wanted is for her to race the very best horses in her own backyard! That's all i wanted. The horse colony is extremely depleted in So Cal, there's not one Pletcher horse, not one Zito horse, not one McLaughin horse and the list goes on and on. Not one of these elite east coast trainers have a horse on the west coast to run on these tracks in those big races. Its not like the SA Handicap or the HGC or even the Pac Classic are overloaded with 14 monsters from all over the country/world. Its just a bunch of local bums and her owners cant even find a way to race ONE TIME in these signature races.

Rachel, on the other hand, is touring the country, racing in all kinds of races on all kinds of surfaces and battling tooth and nail on or near the lead. She's put herself in 'harms way' for lack of a better term and has been beaten a few times now. The Shine off Rachel seems to be all but gone and now people are viewing her as just another very good horse who's really not great. If Z would have had the same ambitious schedule that Rachel has had, she would have also been beaten a few times and we would be saying the same thing about her.

Good but not great.

[Robert Fischer]

lots of potential fuel for debate.


I don't think Zenyatta is a great example of IF vs. HOW.

Zenyatta hasn't taken on the world's best, but she could have had a weaker schedule. Nobody really claims that she has had any kind of campaign to put her among the world's best. Pretty much everyone who knows racing has said they are bored/ disappointed with the conservative road to the Breeders Cup Classic, but that the Classic itself is a special race, and that pleasing fans and pacing a thoroughbred is not easy. There isn't really any other horse comparable to Zenyatta. Blame is a male and hasn't been around for long enough. QR seems to be over the initial Pletcher-boost and has many doubts about staying 10+ furlongs. Goldikova seems safe from Zenyatta (as Z haven't "manned up" and scheduled a world class turf race or even DWC'11 yet) [ditto w/ pacoboy workforce etc...]

while Z does get more respect than Peppers Pride(sp?) that really does more against your point. Zenyatta is at the mercy of the opponents in the Classic if she wants to be thought of as anything else than a really nice recent horse who was very big, possibly special.
Even if the Classic's runners put on a historic show and bring out the best in Zenyatta, she still will not have satisfied most realistic critics unless she takes on world class horses a few times.

[thaskalos]

In Pro sports, the leagues are set up to where the team who wins the Super Bowl or World Series actually has to face the very best competition in order to get the title. If you're a pro sports champion, you earned it and there's really no debate on 'who you beat'. If you win the Super Bowl or World Series, you beat either the very best competition or you beat someone who beat the best competition.

In horse racing, this isn't the case. You can pile up wins and NOT face the very best yet we seem to defend this type of 'schedule' if you will.

Zenyatta beat the very best one time, in the BC Classic. Her other 17 races were, for the most part, NOT the best competition. Also, in the BC Classic, she had her own personal surface and was completely rested and didnt have to ship. No doubt she was great and awesome in victory, but she did have a lot of advantages in her corner. She's never attempted the 3 'signature' races in her backyard despite those races coming up relatively weak compared to historical standards. Nobody is going to confuse Richard's Kid with Candy Ride.

I know the Z fanatics will say that she won the BC Classic, what more do you want. I just think that there has been too much 'ducking'. There's absolutely no reason she wasn't being pointed for the Pacific Classic this year. It was a million dollar race against a bunch of allowance horses, she would have been 1-5 in that race for a million bucks.

So anyway, to make a long point longer, some people seem to just want to forget about the competition and not 'debate' this stuff. They just want to say "Z is undefeated, i dont even want to discuss all that other stuff, she's one of the best horses ever"

Why not discuss it? Racing is set up so that an all time great horse candidate, like Z, doesn't have to race against the very best competition in order for some people to annoint her an all time great. For those of you who are in the Z-is-an-all-time-great corner, why do you just ignore that she's never raced one time in the SA hcp, HGC or Pac Classic? Not one time.

I was very impressed with her BC Classic win, but for her to have remained in a nice and easy comfort zone bugs me a bit. I wanted to see her do more, in her backyard, than what she's done. Some wanted her to tour the country and run more races on dirt tracks, all i wanted is for her to race the very best horses in her own backyard! That's all i wanted. The horse colony is extremely depleted in So Cal, there's not one Pletcher horse, not one Zito horse, not one McLaughin horse and the list goes on and on. Not one of these elite east coast trainers have a horse on the west coast to run on these tracks in those big races. Its not like the SA Handicap or the HGC or even the Pac Classic are overloaded with 14 monsters from all over the country/world. Its just a bunch of local bums and her owners cant even find a way to race ONE TIME in these signature races.

Rachel, on the other hand, is touring the country, racing in all kinds of races on all kinds of surfaces and battling tooth and nail on or near the lead. She's put herself in 'harms way' for lack of a better term and has been beaten a few times now. The Shine off Rachel seems to be all but gone and now people are viewing her as just another very good horse who's really not great. If Z would have had the same ambitious schedule that Rachel has had, she would have also been beaten a few times and we would be saying the same thing about her.

Good but not great.Why all the fuss about the "fanatics" in either camp? Should we really care what they think?

So, some people think that Zenyatta is the secondcoming of Secretariat, while some others think that she is the secondcoming of Peppers Pride.

So what? Is it our responsibility to change the opinions of others?

He have spoken (or typed) millions and millions of words in our lives...how many opinions do we think we have changed?

[wisconsin]

Rachel, on the other hand, is touring the country, racing in all kinds of races on all kinds of surfaces and battling tooth and nail on or near the lead. She's put herself in 'harms way' for lack of a better term and has been beaten a few times now. The Shine off Rachel seems to be all but gone and now people are viewing her as just another very good horse who's really not great. If Z would have had the same ambitious schedule that Rachel has had, she would have also been beaten a few times and we would be saying the same thing about her.

Good but not great.

Sorry, not that I think Zenyatta has had any kind of tough schedule, but your summary about Rachel's schedule is cloudy. All kinds of surfaces means what, dirt or slop. She was already stabled at Fairgrounds. Then she was already stabled at Churchill where she ran twice, and then she went to Belmont. A side trip to Monmouth for that glorified allowance event is like Zenyatta going from Santa Anita to Hollywood, and Saratoga is like Zenyatta going from Santa Anita to Del Mar. Zenyatta did travel to Oaklawn, however.

They both have had cupcake schedules.

[Seabiscuit@AR]

Rachel Alexandra dodged the 2009 BC Classic and the 2010 Apple Blossom. We can see why yesterday they were smart to dodge the 2009 BC Classic. Rachel would have been 1000s to win at Santa Anita over 10 furlongs

In 2010 RA's starting prices have been 1.05, 1.20, 1.10, 1.10 and 1.45 or 1-20, 1-5, 1-10, 1-10, 1-2

Her odds and the size of the fields she has been facing suggest she has been facing easy tasks in 2010. Yet she has only won 2 from 5

RA is just another good but not great horse. Good 3YO but cannot make the transition to open company. Her flops in 2010 should make it clear how rare a true champ like Zenyatta is. I would be enjoying Zenyatta's final two starts rather than worrying about how easy her races supposedly are. Rachel's 2010 races all looked easy to her backers before the races happened otherwise they would not have been sending her off at odds of 1-20 etc

[Dahoss9698]

RA is just another good but not great horse. Good 3YO but cannot make the transition to open company. Her flops in 2010 should make it clear how rare a true champ like Zenyatta is. I would be enjoying Zenyatta's final two starts rather than worrying about how easy her races supposedly are. Rachel's 2010 races all looked easy to her backers before the races happened otherwise they would not have been sending her off at odds of 1-20 etc

It's amazing to me that second place finishes are now called flops. Reading some people here you would think Life At Ten put away Rachel instead of the other way around.

But you say she can't make the transition to open company. Maybe I was asleep last year, but what would you call the Preakness and Haskell? How much more open could the Woodward have been?

[Charlie D]

It's amazing to me that second place finishes are now called flops.


Amazing to me too Dahoss. Is there something in the water around here??

[wisconsin]

It's amazing to me that second place finishes are now called flops. Reading some people here you would think Life At Ten put away Rachel instead of the other way around.

But you say she can't make the transition to open company. Maybe I was asleep last year, but what would you call the Preakness and Haskell? How much more open could the Woodward have been?

Agreed. As much as anyone can say that she faced a weak schedule so far this year, you can never take away her grand schedule of last season. It was tremendous. Of course we are all disappointed with the results this year. Who wouldn't be?

[Dahoss9698]

Agreed. As much as anyone can say that she faced a weak schedule so far this year, you can never take away her grand schedule of last season. It was tremendous. Of course we are all disappointed with the results this year. Who wouldn't be?

I can see how she has been disappointing this year. I'd love to see her undefeated this year, but on dirt, it's just difficult to do. Part of why she has been disappointing this year because of what she accomplished last year. She's run 5 times this year, won twice and has been second three times. That's a bad year? Since when?

I know you didn't say it, but I've read it here and other places. It's crazy.

I hope they don't retire her. She deserves a chance to finish out the year and finish out her career at the track that made her a household name last year.

[OntheRail]

I can see how she has been disappointing this year. I'd love to see her undefeated this year, but on dirt, it's just difficult to do. Part of why she has been disappointing this year because of what she accomplished last year. She's run 5 times this year, won twice and has been second three times. That's a bad year? Since when?

I know you didn't say it, but I've read it here and other places. It's crazy.

I hope they don't retire her. She deserves a chance to finish out the year and finish out her career at the track that made her a household name last year.
This I also find astounding... 5/ 2-3-0 for the year and she's being pushed onto the meat truck as being done and a flop. :faint:

Any other horse this would be a first rate contender... and those 3 losses were not by open lengths either. Great horse throughout history have lost races when put outside their comfort zone some how this has been lost or glossed over many.

[PaceAdvantage]

Good 3YO but cannot make the transition to open company.This one was the knee-slapper of the bunch.

[Stillriledup]

Thanks guys for contributing.

Biscuit, i don't believe that Rachel 'dodged' the BC Classic. We have gone over this lots of times, we can't call her missing this race a 'dodge' it was run on a plastic surface, horses run on their best surfaces for the most part, there's dirt, there's turf and there is plastic. Rachel is not a plastic horse, Z is. Its not fair to call out Rachel for not shipping 3,000 miles to run on rubber when rubber is not her surface.

Rachel had a much harder 2009 than Z did, so if she shipped to the Classic and got beat, people would have said "see, Z is better". That wouldnt have been fair either since Rachel would have been the beat up horse going to get slaughtered. She was drained in her Saratoga win last year and still hasn't fully recovered. Also, Rachel was racing at 2 years old while Z never even started until she was almost 4.

Thasker, you're right, very few opinions are changed. I don't really mind Z camp fans defending her, but i would just like to put something in their brains that says "you're right, she's never raced in the SA Hcp, Pac Classic or HG Cup" even though those races have come up extremely light for historical standards and the purses were far greater than what Z had run for.

RF, you make good points, i just think that if Z would have ventured out of her So Cal comfort zone and tried this year's Pacific Classic instead of beating Jerry Jam's glorified 30k claimer by a neck, i would have been satisfied that she actually went to race elite SO Cal males in a million dollar grade 1 race.

What So Cal based owner has an elite horse and doesn't point to either the SA Hcp, the Hollywood Gold Cup or the Pacific Classic? They all do, except Jerry Moss. If you want to be elite, you have to race in these races. If you want to remain undefeated, you race against Anabaa's Creation and Rinterval.

[Sericm]

(Rachel, on the other hand, is touring the country, racing in all kinds of races on all kinds of surfaces and battling tooth and nail on or near the lead. She's put herself in 'harms way' for lack of a better term and has been beaten a few times now. The Shine off Rachel seems to be all but gone and now people are viewing her as just another very good horse who's really not great. If Z would have had the same ambitious schedule that Rachel has had, she would have also been beaten a few times and we would be saying the same thing about her.)

What have you been smoking lately! This is an ambititious schedule!
Two unlisted, two grade twos and a grade 1.

Five races total with 3 losses!


Get real!

[Phantombridgejumpe]

If you win the BC Classic you aren't the best horse? Not following...

Would the Super Bowl count differently if it was played on turf vs. dirt? Don't think so.

Do speed horses have it tougher than come from behind horses? If speed horses are at the mercy of someone running with them than come from behind horses are certainly at risk of being in a paceless race.

Oh, and who ducked the Apple Blossom this year, if I remember correctly Zenyatta ran, Rachel didnt.

PS - I don't consider myself in any way someone who worships Zenyatta, in fact I've said before if I had a HOY vote last year I would have split it, but if you made me pick one over the other I would have voted for Rachel. However, at this point, if I had to vote on who has had a better career it would take me about .0005 seconds to say Zenyatta.

[Stillriledup]

If you win the BC Classic you aren't the best horse? Not following...

Would the Super Bowl count differently if it was played on turf vs. dirt? Don't think so.

Do speed horses have it tougher than come from behind horses? If speed horses are at the mercy of someone running with them than come from behind horses are certainly at risk of being in a paceless race.

Oh, and who ducked the Apple Blossom this year, if I remember correctly Zenyatta ran, Rachel didnt.

PS - I don't consider myself in any way someone who worships Zenyatta, in fact I've said before if I had a HOY vote last year I would have split it, but if you made me pick one over the other I would have voted for Rachel. However, at this point, if I had to vote on who has had a better career it would take me about .0005 seconds to say Zenyatta.


This was addressed in my OP. The BC is not the Super Bowl because its not an elimination series. To win the SB, you're forced to beat Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, etc along the way. In racing, you don't have to race against anyone or anywhere you don't want to, so you can rest up and then show up on the big day and take one swing. I'm sure the Houston Texans would have loved it if they didnt' have to make the playoffs and win 3 elimination games before getting to the SB, I'm sure they would have just preferred to show up on the big day all rested and healthy to take their one shot at it.

[Phantombridgejumpe]

The Texans example is a good one, I understand that point better now - thanks.


If you had a HOY vote for 2010 up to this point who would be in the top 3 spots?

Right now I'd go...

1) Zenyatta
2) Blame
3) Lookin' at Lucky


If you want to say that would be giving Zenyatta a lifetime award I fully undertand, but that is how I would currently vote.

[thaskalos]

Do speed horses have it tougher than come from behind horses? If speed horses are at the mercy of someone running with them than come from behind horses are certainly at risk of being in a paceless race.

Not to mention that the stretch runner is exposed to many "traffic" problems during the run of the race...

Stillriledup...what is this stuff about the front runner "battling tooth and nail on or near the lead"?

Isn't a front-running style the advantageous way to go, on the dirt?

Didn't William Quirin call the front-running trip..."the universal bias"?

If a speed horse is in search of a Grade 1 race, with an "uncontested" early lead...there is always the "plastic" track in So.Cal. :)

[Stillriledup]

Not to mention that the stretch runner is exposed to many "traffic" problems during the run of the race...

Stillriledup...what is this stuff about the front runner "battling tooth and nail on or near the lead"?

Isn't a front-running style the advantageous way to go, on the dirt?

Didn't William Quirin call the front-running trip..."the universal bias"?

If a speed horse is in search of a Grade 1 race, with an "uncontested" early lead...there is always the "plastic" track in So.Cal. :)

Front running is more advantageous if you dont get dueled up. Sometimes you get loose and save ground on both turns and that's the way to go.

In other words front running/pace pressing is better and more advantageous.....unless its not.

[Stillriledup]

The Texans example is a good one, I understand that point better now - thanks.


If you had a HOY vote for 2010 up to this point who would be in the top 3 spots?

Right now I'd go...

1) Zenyatta
2) Blame
3) Lookin' at Lucky


If you want to say that would be giving Zenyatta a lifetime award I fully undertand, but that is how I would currently vote.


I think Z has a huge case, at this point, as HOY. She's going to be hard to deny just because i think Voters are going to give her the lifetime award and honor her this year with the HOY. Hopefully she earns it on the track.

[cj]

I think Z has a huge case, at this point, as HOY. She's going to be hard to deny just because i think Voters are going to give her the lifetime award and honor her this year with the HOY. Hopefully she earns it on the track.

Z has to win the Classic. They are all in. If she loses by a nose, she won't be horse of the year. She has done nothing else to matter.

[46zilzal]

Z has to win the Classic. They are all in. If she loses by a nose, she won't be horse of the year. She has done nothing else to matter.
loses by a nose and out? You have to be kidding, for body of work alone she gets it if anywhere competitive.

[Stillriledup]

Z has to win the Classic. They are all in. If she loses by a nose, she won't be horse of the year. She has done nothing else to matter.

I think it depends on who beats her by a nose. If its Blame, than she's got a problem. If its someone else, you never know.

[cj]

I think it depends on who beats her by a nose. If its Blame, than she's got a problem. If its someone else, you never know.

She has zero other wins that matter. Beating only females (forgetting they are bad ones for a minute) has never been enough to get HOY.

[Stillriledup]

She has zero other wins that matter. Beating only females (forgetting they are bad ones for a minute) has never been enough to get HOY.

But she's Zenyatta, that might be good enough.

[cj]

But she's Zenyatta, that might be good enough.

You are right, but the list is longer than Blame. Lookin at Lucky, Quality Road, Blind Luck are a few others.

[PaceAdvantage]

loses by a nose and out? You have to be kidding, for body of work alone she gets it if anywhere competitive.That's not the way HOY works. And voters get that FACT.

I'm pretty sure (although not 100% certain) that Zenyatta has yet to encounter a single Grade 1 winner this year.

And you're going to tell me that a horse who hasn't beaten a single Grade 1 winner and fails to win the BC Classic is going to get HOY?

Should never happen.

[Stillriledup]

That's not the way HOY works. And voters get that FACT.

I'm pretty sure (although not 100% certain) that Zenyatta has yet to encounter a single Grade 1 winner this year.

And you're going to tell me that a horse who hasn't beaten a single Grade 1 winner and fails to win the BC Classic is going to get HOY?

Should never happen.

Lots of things in racing shouldn't happen. Racing is a shouldnt happen type of sport. I totally agree, she hasn't done enough if she doesn't win the BCC.