False Favorites

[goforgin]

What's the top two (2) handicapping factors that you use to determine a "false favorite"? Could be the ML or post-time favorite which you won't use as your top selection. If you only had 2 handicapping factors to use?
For example, Earnings per Start, Last Race Beyer +10 over average (i.e. expecting a bounce), Speed Figure is not top 3 of contenders (or within a certain number of the top figure for that race), Pace Figure is not top 3 of contenders (or within a certain number of the top figure for that race), Negative Class Drop, Negative Jockey change, +### Days Layoff, etc.
I'm trying to come up with a solid group of factors that I can use to determine a possible false favorite.

[anglemaster]

First time starter that wins a sprint and now goes two turns for the first time. They usually get bet down big time and are a good bet against. IMHO)

Fillies/Mares running back off an all time "big race" without being refreshed.

[RaceBookJoe]

The first 2 things that popped to mind were: taking a negative class drop especially right after either a win or a claim , and any favorite that doesnt measure up to par for the class. Honestly there are a large number of only 2 factors that would make sense though. rbj

[bettheoverlay]

Multiple losses at low odds, especially when favored, and especially when bet to odds-on.

[illinoisbred]

In maiden races I'd say an entrant with 10 or more starts,and also an entrant with as few as 5,6 and more starts that has already shown a propensity/willingness to finish 2nd or 3rd in many of it's starts.

[thaskalos]

1.) The horse is changing distances, after a sharp effort at a different distance.

2.) The horse is coming off a 6 week+ layoff. I know that layoff horses win more often now than they used to...but they should still not be favored.

[Robert Fischer]

WON last out @:


odds on
major circuit (or large enough pool size)
2. Showed a weakness while winning. (preferably a visual cue, if not then something from charts, and so on - the less obvious the better)


hopefully the "positive result"(cashed ticket) for the high volume of players in this horse's last race will "blind" players to the negative.

these types generally depend on satisfying a number of conditions in order to be considered in play.

[DJofSD]

What is a false favorite? Does it mean the same thing to every one?

Is a false favorite only considered to be an extremely short odds horse that does not win? Or, is a 2/1 favorite that losses a false favorite also?

Rachael Alexandra would likely fit the description most have it mind.

[thaskalos]

What is a false favorite? Does it mean the same thing to every one?

Is a false favorite only considered to be an extremely short odds horse that does not win? Or, is a 2/1 favorite that losses a false favorite also?

Rachael Alexandra would likely fit the description most have it mind.The favorite is the shortest price on the board. We call it a "false" favorite...when we think that the horse is undeserving of its favoritism.

[DJofSD]

The favorite is the shortest price on the board. We call it a "false" favorite...when we think that the horse is undeserving of its favoritism.
Right. But when the "favorite" is not an odds on favorite, can you really say it is not deserving? Lukewarm odds of the betting favorite implies some doubt about its abilities or superiority over the competition. A lukewarm favorite has a builtin excuse.

[thaskalos]

Right. But when the "favorite" is not an odds on favorite, can you really say it is not deserving? Lukewarm odds of the betting favorite implies some doubt about its abilities or superiority over the competition. A lukewarm favorite has a builtin excuse.Yes...but even a lukewarm favorite is considered by the collective public to be the best horse in the race...even if it's by a small margin.

"Favorite"...is a pretty loose term. It could mean "heavy" favorite, or "lukewarm" favorite.

[DJofSD]

OK, so, any favorite regardless of the odds can be considered a false favorite when it fails to win.

Does the finishing position of the false favorite enter into the discussion? Does it have to finish off the board?

[thaskalos]

OK, so, any favorite regardless of the odds can be considered a false favorite when it fails to win.

Does the finishing position of the false favorite enter into the discussion? Does it have to finish off the board?If the favorite fails to win...it has failed in its role as a favorite.

[PhantomOnTour]

WON last out @:


odds on
major circuit (or large enough pool size)
2. Showed a weakness while winning. (preferably a visual cue, if not then something from charts, and so on - the less obvious the better)


hopefully the "positive result"(cashed ticket) for the high volume of players in this horse's last race will "blind" players to the negative.

these types generally depend on satisfying a number of conditions in order to be considered in play.
Yep...absolutely LOVE going against big maiden breakers (esp. wire to wire jobs) who have a weak pace figure but recorded a nice final time figure. They usually get hooked and fade while going too fast early.

[horses4courses]

When studying an oddsboard before a race, assuming that it is a fairly sizeable pool, I ask myself the following question with each runner:

Why is that horse at those current odds?

You need to watch opening click, 15 mtp, 10 mtp, 5 mtp
If the pool is too small, there is too much fluctuation close to post time.

The biggest factor for public money blindly betting a favorite is jockey/trainer
combination. The best ones win 3 out of 10 times, therefore losing the other 7

If you can spot a horse that may be lacking in any given category, and looks beatable, but is the public's choice through it's connections - that is the time to identify the horses you like better in the race. If the odds say yes, then bet your choices as you see fit.

Good luck!

[formula_2002]

IN MY CURRENT DATA BASE, 14720 FAVORITES RETURNED A .84 FLAT BET ROI.

I CAN IDENTIFY 747 OF THOSE FAVORITES THAT RETURN A .70 FLAT BET ROI.

I DESIGNATE THOSE 747 HORSES "DBF" DON'T BET THE FAVORITE.

TAKING THING A BIT FURTHER.

SOMETIMES THE "DBF" DESIGNATED HORSE DOES NOT BECOME THE FAVORITE.
IN THOSE RACES (371 RACES), WHEN THE SUM OF THE WIN POOL PERCENTAGE OF THE "DBF" HORSES >=35 %, THEN THE FAVORITE RETURNES ABOUT A 1.01 ROI

[Aner]

I just looked back on August races. Of the 239 races I handicapped, 84 of the morning line favorites( or lowest ML if there were scratches) won --35%. It would cost $478.00 to bet $2 on each to win. Return was $391.70 for a loss of $86.30 (18% loss). All this is within expectation.

If you break this set into two groups -those where the horse was 5 or more lengths behind at any call last race- and those where all calls were less than 5 lengths behind, this is the picture.

All calls less than 5 lengths --------61 wins in 162 races (38%)----- $36.60 loss for $324 bet (11% loss)

One or more calls 5+ behind ------23 wins in 77 races (30%)------ $49.70 loss for $154 bet (32% loss)

[Stillriledup]

I would say that just because a horse loses, doesnt mean it was a false favorite. What if a 6-5 shot is much the best, gets blocked, crashed into and overcomes a slow start to make big move to lose by a nose. That horse, even though he lost, was a legit favorite who just happened to have bad luck.

Horses i look to beat are horses who look much better on paper than they are in real life. Sometimes a horse gets a letter perfect trip and just falls across the wire as the winner. Next time he races, he's going to look great on paper, but not as good as he is in real life. Horses like this is what i look to bet against going forward as short prices.

[Fastracehorse]

.............alot of favorites are legit but are burnt in favour of a better wagering return.

fffastt

[GARY Z]

any horse not named Secretariat unless running against a horse named
Onion, or running against a trainer like Alan Jerkens. :D

That said, why even bother betting the race unless this fav is in a pick 3,4,6,
or daily double?

I generally go against the fav in these exotics on my pick 6's, but
do throw a few "savers" in case the public is correct, which generallyi
nails me in these bets.

However, at most tracks, pick 3/4 and dd overlap the pick 6 so
there are possibilities hedging and catching a value/overlooked
horse in the horizontal bets.

[teddy]

Bet against a JBM at your own peril if it won its first start.

[JohnGalt1]

I will almost always bet against favorites, ns non-favorites for that matter, off a lay off with only a 3f or no workouts, unless trained by a trainer with a high pct. of lay off winners.