Beware of Public Selectors

[toetoe]

Okay, no experienced handicapper pays attention to the "experts" in the paper, but neophytes should know the uselessness of a high win percentage without decent prices. Today's case in point is Dave Litfin's handicap for tomorrow's Saratoga card. Herewith the picks, including the second choices, as if we were so parched with chalk that we might clutch at the closest alternative:

[* = favorite; 2f = second favorite, and so on ...]

1) 2f, *

2) *, 3f

3) 3f, 5f ( :eek: --- where'd those come from ?)

4) *, 2f

[Now starts the pick-six]

5) *, 2f

6) *, 3f

7) *, 2f

8) 3f, *

9) *, 2f

10) 2f, *



Now, pickin' like this will hit 30% or more of the time ... and you'll lose your shirt.

Does anybody agree that 3f's and up are needed to make playing the pick-six worthwhile, especially with the 26% rake ?

[pandy]

I love Litfin's analysis, he does a good job of giving you the prime contenders with the reasons why he is picking them, including key race analysis, tracks bias, pedigree, trainer info, etc. He tells you when a race is a crap shoot, so he's basically tipping you off on which races to spread or pick longshots, plus he also lets you know when he thinks a favorite is solid. As for the longshots, that's your job.

[RXB]

I read Litfin's books and thought they were quite good. He strikes me as being one of the sharper public handicappers.

[JustRalph]

anybody got any numbers for favs this year?

Seems to me Litfin's probably getting more winners playing chalk

I seem to feel like there is more chalk winning this year........maybe not?

one thing for sure........playing the chalk isn't very much fun and I am starting to get really tired of looking for decent races........

[pandy]

Favorites are up overall and will go higher after the summer meets close, shorter fields due to the recession and downturn in the racing industry.

[lamboguy]

anybody got any numbers for favs this year?

Seems to me Litfin's probably getting more winners playing chalk

I seem to feel like there is more chalk winning this year........maybe not?

one thing for sure........playing the chalk isn't very much fun and I am starting to get really tired of looking for decent races........playing the race time favorite has produced more than the 33% win ratio than in past years. years ago betting the post time favorite in msw races across the board yielded a very small profit. the problem with that is that when there are 2 horses in the race that show odds of 2-1 you are not going to know the actual favorite untill after the race. the only way you could play that system is if you had a bookmaker that would accept that type of conditional wager. years ago when horseracing had 30k people show up on a friday afternoon at rockingham park there were hundreds of bookies on the track that loved to book horses that were "chalk". so when you went to them with that idea they loved it at first until they lost and shut you off!

[misscashalot]

playing the race time favorite has produced more than the 33% win ratio than in past years. years ago betting the post time favorite in msw races across the board yielded a very small profit. the problem with that is that when there are 2 horses in the race that show odds of 2-1 you are not going to know the actual favorite untill after the race. the only way you could play that system is if you had a bookmaker that would accept that type of conditional wager. years ago when horseracing had 30k people show up on a friday afternoon at rockingham park there were hundreds of bookies on the track that loved to book horses that were "chalk". so when you went to them with that idea they loved it at first until they lost and shut you off!

The truest way to separate 2 horses that are same odds at post time is to check the place $. That seldom lies to which is the hot horse (If that's what you're looking for). Try it, you'll like it.

[lamboguy]

The truest way to separate 2 horses that are same odds at post time is to check the place $. That seldom lies to which is the hot horse (If that's what you're looking for). Try it, you'll like it.for sure that was always the system before the age of fast computers. today with after the bell betting often times the horse with the lead gets pounded. so it is easy to make a favorite after the break.

in saratoga this year the place pool has worked to a T

[misscashalot]

for sure that was always the system before the age of fast computers. today with after the bell betting often times the horse with the lead gets pounded. so it is easy to make a favorite after the break.

in saratoga this year the place pool has worked to a T

It's like anything else. You take what they give you. If you know your numbers it'll all equal out in the long run. Contrary to the belief...You can't beat a race, but you can beat the races (in the long run).

[Stillriledup]

Someone told me one time that these public selectors are great favorite identifiers. Just look at their picks and there's a great chance they'll be picking the post time favorite on top.

[toetoe]

Glad to see the magnanimous responses.



Mark Cramer always said to back the least "popular" selector, if any at all. I guess I'm still baffled that these guys have to pick four beasts per race. I guess it's not really set in stone. Maybe one day, a guy can say, "I love today's card. I have one horse I like in practically every race." Another day: "Underwhelming card today; let's talk about Rachel Alexandra [or the Eclipse Awards, or Jessica Pacheco's Wonderbra] ..." Am I expecting way too much here ?

[Indulto]

Glad to see the magnanimous responses.



Mark Cramer always said to back the least "popular" selector, if any at all. I guess I'm still baffled that these guys have to pick four beasts per race. I guess it's not really set in stone. Maybe one day, a guy can say, "I love today's card. I have one horse I like in practically every race." Another day: "Underwhelming card today; let's talk about Rachel Alexandra [or the Eclipse Awards, or Jessica Pacheco's Wonderbra] ..." Am I expecting way too much here ?tt,
You should expand your expectations to a Thunderbra. ;)

[toetoe]

I'm always lightning things up, eh ? :rolleyes: .

[lamboguy]

It's like anything else. You take what they give you. If you know your numbers it'll all equal out in the long run. Contrary to the belief...You can't beat a race, but you can beat the races (in the long run).
ain't that the case.


as far as public selector's go, i think they are alright. the ones i got no use for are the ones that charge for their picks.

my mother had a saying, "those that tell don't know, and those that know don't tell".

[pandy]

Mike Welsh's Florida picks are also very in the Form.

[appistappis]

if you were a public handicapper and found a nice 14-1 shot, would you put it in print for all to see??????????????

[Overlay]

Now, pickin' like this will hit 30% or more of the time ... and you'll lose your shirt.

I wouldn't fault Litfin too much. Are his picks purported to be anything other than his opinion of the horses that are the most likely to win? (As you have implied, that says nothing about the value that they will offer. I think that you have to expand your view to the full field for that.)

[Stillriledup]

if you were a public handicapper and found a nice 14-1 shot, would you put it in print for all to see??????????????


I asked a public selector one time, "if you love a horse, why not hide him and pick some horse you hate and try and convince the public he's a good bet, ya know, protect your price on stuff you really love"

The answer?

"I've tried that, it didnt work"