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View Full Version : 2010 HOY - who do you think will win?


horses4courses
08-29-2010, 07:38 PM
From what I have seen so far this year, it looks like the BC Classic will pack alot of punch when it comes to finding a 2010 Horse of the Year.

Blame and Zenyatta will be popular choices for the Classic, and they should have a good pace to run at when they get towards the end of 10 furlongs.

There are, of course, other possibilities.
A longshot, with little claim to HOY, could upset in the Classic.
Or, another contender, such as Lookin At Lucky, Quality Road,or even Rachel,
could fire on the first Saturday in November.

Time will tell......

* Remember - the above poll is not based solely on what has already happened. Factor in what you think will happen down the road.

bane
08-29-2010, 07:42 PM
Whoever wins The Classic unless it's a Euro Invader, luckly the Classic is the one give me The Press is not willing to base HOY honors on.

tzipi
08-29-2010, 07:49 PM
You have to go with the horse who's facing the best and wins the most IMO.

tzipi
08-29-2010, 07:52 PM
Blame and Zenyatta will be popular choices for the Classic.

Well if RA is there and she just lost at the wire through suicidal fractions at a 1 1/4,I don't know how people will leave her off their tickets considering she wont have to go out by 10 through wicked fractions in the Classic.

PaceAdvantage
08-29-2010, 07:54 PM
Well if RA is there and she just lost at the wire through suicidal fractions at a 1 1/4,I don't know how people will leave her off their tickets considering she wont have to go out by 10 through wicked fractions in the Classic.It wasn't suicidal fractions..23.66 47.73 112.02 is not suicidal.

Have a look at Holy Bull's Travers or Seattle Slew's 1978 Jockey Club Gold Cup if you want to have a look at suicidal fractions and duels.

horses4courses
08-29-2010, 07:54 PM
Well if RA is there and she just lost at the wire through suicidal fractions at a 1 1/4,I don't know how people will leave her off their tickets considering she wont have to go out by 10 through wicked fractions in the Classic.

You don't think Quality Road will be in the lineup?
And, if so, you think he will rate?

tzipi
08-29-2010, 08:00 PM
It wasn't suicidal fractions..23.66 47.73 112.02 is not suicidal.

Have a look at Holy Bull's Travers or Seattle Slew's 1978 Jockey Club Gold Cup if you want to have a look at suicidal fractions and duels.

Bulls race was great. I will say that. But RA just lost at the end of a 1 1/4 race race through decent fractions. I'm just saying I wouldn't leave her off my tickets in the Classic considering the race will not set up that same way. No reason she can't be around after that race today.

GMB@BP
08-29-2010, 08:03 PM
It wasn't suicidal fractions..23.66 47.73 112.02 is not suicidal.

Have a look at Holy Bull's Travers or Seattle Slew's 1978 Jockey Club Gold Cup if you want to have a look at suicidal fractions and duels.

Holy Bull won though, beating trash though.

Who is a better horse, Holy Bull or RA? Interesting question but maybe for a different thread. Similar styles.

PaceAdvantage
08-29-2010, 08:05 PM
Holy Bull won though, beating trash though.

Who is a better horse, Holy Bull or RA? Interesting question but maybe for a different thread. Similar styles.Holy Bull didn't beat trash in the Travers! Are you joking?

He soundly defeated the Preakness AND Belmont winner Tabasco Cat and held off the eventual Breeders' Cup Classic winner Concern.

Holy Bull was leaps and bounds better than Rachel Alexandra, but that question shouldn't even need be asked.

GMB@BP
08-29-2010, 08:06 PM
Holy Bull didn't beat trash in the Travers! Are you joking?

He soundly defeated the Preakness AND Belmont winner Tabasco Cat and held off the eventual Breeders' Cup Classic winner Concern.

oh

tzipi
08-29-2010, 08:10 PM
The Bull was awesome. Two things that stunk. The first being he broke down in the Donn Handicap against Cigar. Who knows who would've won. Then The Derby came up sloppy. Might have cost him.

MickJ26
08-29-2010, 08:14 PM
Blame wins the JCGC and the BC Classic on his way to Champion Older Male and HOY.

cj
08-29-2010, 08:14 PM
oh

You make a silly statement and this is your response when called out? Quality post.

horses4courses
08-29-2010, 08:17 PM
I have said for some time that, for whatever reason, RA is not what she was.

The pace looked quick today, but the times don't back that up.
Rachel, also, ran the last quarter in over 27 seconds - not good.

At this point, Rachel Alexandra is a longshot to win the BC Classic.

It is, also, odds-against her going to post for that race, imo.

keithw84
08-29-2010, 08:54 PM
Holy Bull won though, beating trash though.

Who is a better horse, Holy Bull or RA? Interesting question but maybe for a different thread. Similar styles.

Gotta agree with Pace on this one. The horses he beat (Travers and otherwise) represented one of the best 3 year old crops in recent years.

One similarity between Rachel and the Bull is that neither had to run in the BCC for people to realize that they were the best 3-year old and horse in training that year.

Audioslavery
08-29-2010, 11:55 PM
No one has stood out enough this year to earn it except maybe either Blind Luck or Lookin at Lucky.

Fortunately, we have the BCC to decide

whoever wins it gets it.

cpitt84
08-30-2010, 01:16 AM
zenyatta! 20-0 with another BCC under her saddle! :)

RXB
08-30-2010, 02:19 AM
The Bull was awesome. Two things that stunk. The first being he broke down in the Donn Handicap against Cigar. Who knows who would've won. Then The Derby came up sloppy. Might have cost him.

Holy Bull could handle a sloppy track.

Dr. Harthill, were he alive and injected with truth serum (somehow would seem fitting to inject him with something), might have offered an informed explanation for Holy Bull's failure that day. But I digress.

PaceAdvantage
08-30-2010, 03:35 AM
Holy Bull could handle a sloppy track.

Dr. Harthill, were he alive and injected with truth serum (somehow would seem fitting to inject him with something), might have offered an informed explanation for Holy Bull's failure that day. But I digress.I seem to recall Holy Bull was never drug tested after the Derby.

Imagine that...a losing Kentucky Derby favorite NOT tested after the race...whatever became of that investigation? Oh, here's an article:

http://billyreedsays.com/2003/04/23/no-one-doubts-that-alex-harthill-is-a-veterinary-genius/

Shelby
08-30-2010, 10:33 AM
I think Blind Luck might sneak in there.

46zilzal
08-30-2010, 12:48 PM
Too early....If Blame continues to get better that one could have a shot...TOO EARLY

DeanT
08-30-2010, 12:56 PM
JMO and going off simple board odds for some races. Z and blame seem to be the only ones who control their own destiny's

Z runs the table, she wins with unanimous support. 1-9 * 4-1
Blame has to win both, plus stilll has a chance if none of the other horses do well. Maybe a 2-1 * 4-1 chance
LAL - has to win the BC impressively, with the others faltering, imo.
QR - must win out or win the BC with the others racing bad
RA - very little shot
BL - wins out impressively and the others above dont do a hell of a lot in their last two

GMB@BP
08-30-2010, 01:05 PM
You make a silly statement and this is your response when called out? Quality post.

you really dont think I know who was in the race, how the race was run, the exact fractions, who the rabbit was........you disappoint me.

bane
08-30-2010, 06:32 PM
Just a reminder Kelso's last HOY honors was made up in the fall and RA does have a shot but I doubt it.


Kelso made up for a rather lucklast Summer with an impressive Fall, it can happen granted The BC has really hurt Fall racing she can do it.

Alacrity
09-01-2010, 12:14 AM
Zenyatta. I can't see this current crop beating her.

redshift1
09-01-2010, 03:22 AM
Its wide open the favs are:


Zenyatta

Lookin At Lucky

Blame

My pick is ...... LAL

SharpCat
09-03-2010, 11:42 PM
Holy Bull didn't beat trash in the Travers! Are you joking?

He soundly defeated the Preakness AND Belmont winner Tabasco Cat and held off the eventual Breeders' Cup Classic winner Concern.

Holy Bull was leaps and bounds better than Rachel Alexandra, but that question shouldn't even need be asked.


Without question Holy Bull was better than Rachel Alexandra.

What kind of Monster was Holy Bull to hold off eventual Breeders Cup Classic winner Concern after that speed duel with D. Wayne's rabbit Commanche Trail. LikeTom Durkin said "But it is Holy Bull, as game as a racehorse can be coming down to the wire. Holy Bull wins what a hero"

Holy Bull also crushed the eventual Breeders Cup Sprint winner Cherokee Run in the Met-Mile by 5 being geared down the final 1/16. Which got me to thinking. Has anyone besides Holy Bull beat the winner of the Breeders Cup Sprint and Classic in the same year. That's just crazy.

PaceAdvantage
09-04-2010, 01:35 AM
Holy Bull beat every single horse there was to beat in 1994, which in itself was a very salty year as far as talent goes.

I can't say enough about that horse. He is my all time absolute favorite horse among any I have seen run since I got into the game in 1987.

I had the opportunity to travel to Kentucky to say hello to him many years ago when Jonabell was still Jonabell (sans the Darley). I hope to see him again soon, as he is getting up there in years (can't believe he's 19 now...wow, time flies...).

Saw a bunch of others as I went from farm to farm, and I highly recommend all racing fans take at least one trip to Kentucky to visit some of these breeding outfits. They are quite accommodating to regular Joes just looking to meet and greet past champions.

WinterTriangle
09-04-2010, 03:00 AM
I highly recommend all racing fans take at least one trip to Kentucky to visit some of these breeding outfits.

I agree! Member of this board who is going to BC has appts. at farm to meet n' greet Big Brown and Smarty Jones. The latter is one of his favs, and the former is one of his friend's faves.

I would probably enjoy the farm visits more than going to the BC races. :jump: Not fond of crowds. I would really have to decide who I want to see. I would have loved to see Seattle Slew when he was alive.

Steve R
09-04-2010, 10:08 PM
Blame wins the JCGC and the BC Classic on his way to Champion Older Male and HOY.
Sounds right to me.

rastajenk
09-05-2010, 11:24 AM
Blame seems to be the flavor of the month. Nice animal; I wouldn't mind having a barnful of Blames. But he hardly seems clearly superior. Since nothing really does, maybe it sets up for a Volponi-type outsider to further scramble the Horse of the Year discussions.

keithw84
09-05-2010, 06:46 PM
Blame seems to be the flavor of the month. Nice animal; I wouldn't mind having a barnful of Blames. But he hardly seems clearly superior. Since nothing really does, maybe it sets up for a Volponi-type outsider to further scramble the Horse of the Year discussions.
If that happens, I think Zenyatta wins although she may not be the most deserving.

Lasix67
09-06-2010, 12:03 PM
I think there is no doubt the winner of the Classic will get the nod, unless Zenyatta finishes second in a close race.

bisket
09-06-2010, 12:32 PM
i think they way things have gone only one horse can take it from zen if she wins her next race, and runs a good race in the classic. blame needs to win both jockey club and classic to take it from her. one of the first criteria for many voters is: the hoy has to dominate their particular division. if blame loses jockey club and wins classic i wouldn't say he has dominated the older horse division. zen wins her next race, she has dominated the filly/mare division. on top of that she has pretty much single handily kept interest high in california at a time when the game could have imploded. i think there will also be many voters a little more willing to give her the nod in a questionable situation like this scenario. in regards to losing it so closely last year.

Relwob Owner
09-06-2010, 12:49 PM
i think they way things have gone only one horse can take it from zen if she wins her next race, and runs a good race in the classic. blame needs to win both jockey club and classic to take it from her. one of the first criteria for many voters is: the hoy has to dominate their particular division. if blame loses jockey club and wins classic i wouldn't say he has dominated the older horse division. zen wins her next race, she has dominated the filly/mare division. on top of that she has pretty much single handily kept interest high in california at a time when the game could have imploded. i think there will also be many voters a little more willing to give her the nod in a questionable situation like this scenario. in regards to losing it so closely last year.


Since when has keeping interest high in a certain geographic area been a criteria for HOY? Doesnt make too much sense to me.......

If lookin at Lucky or Blame beat her in the Classic, they win IMO. They will have run against MALES all year and also would have beaten Zenyatta in a race for which Zenyatta spent all year preparing and saving her best stuff for......

cj
09-06-2010, 12:54 PM
Since when has keeping interest high in a certain geographic area been a criteria for HOY? Doesnt make too much sense to me.......

If lookin at Lucky or Blame beat her in the Classic, they win IMO. They will have run against MALES all year and also would have beaten Zenyatta in a race for which Zenyatta spent all year preparing and saving her best stuff for......

You can add Quality Road to the list. I wish Blind Luck was running, she could probably do it as well.

Relwob Owner
09-06-2010, 12:59 PM
You can add Quality Road to the list. I wish Blind Luck was running, she could probably do it as well.


Good call....have the connections definitely ruled out Blind Luck? With things shaping up the way they are, it must be tempting for her connections to consider it.

Cratos
09-06-2010, 01:20 PM
From what I have seen so far this year, it looks like the BC Classic will pack alot of punch when it comes to finding a 2010 Horse of the Year.

Blame and Zenyatta will be popular choices for the Classic, and they should have a good pace to run at when they get towards the end of 10 furlongs.

There are, of course, other possibilities.
A longshot, with little claim to HOY, could upset in the Classic.
Or, another contender, such as Lookin At Lucky, Quality Road,or even Rachel,
could fire on the first Saturday in November.

Time will tell......

* Remember - the above poll is not based solely on what has already happened. Factor in what you think will happen down the road.

This is a “weak” year for Horse-of-the-Year candidates. Unlike in the past when one or more horses had spectacular campaigns, this year has been rather lackluster.

The Triple Crown series has produced one “maybe” contender in Looking at Lucky, but his connections appear to be very cautious and protected of him.

Rachel Alexandra haven’t been able to duplicate or even come close to her sensational 2009 season and Zenyatta’s connections appear to be saving her for the BC Classic and in between they will pick up enough victories to retire her undefeated with 20 wins.

Blame, Blind Luck, and Quality Road are outsiders looking in and if one of them win a race like the JCGC and come back and win the BC Classic the Horse-of-the-Year in all probability will go to that horse.

However Zenyatta is a sentimental choice at this point with her unblemished record.

bisket
09-06-2010, 09:27 PM
Since when has keeping interest high in a certain geographic area been a criteria for HOY? Doesnt make too much sense to me.......

If lookin at Lucky or Blame beat her in the Classic, they win IMO. They will have run against MALES all year and also would have beaten Zenyatta in a race for which Zenyatta spent all year preparing and saving her best stuff for......
hoy isn't an award thats given to the fastest and best horse. now the majority of years this would definately be the case. i don't think hoy was given to the fastest and best horse last year. it was given to the horse that showed excellance in regards to her classification and place in the game. how could anyone say with a straight face that any of the horses you listed above show that type of contribution this year over zenyatta. unless of course blame sweeps his last two races.

Relwob Owner
09-06-2010, 09:42 PM
hoy isn't an award thats given to the fastest and best horse. now the majority of years this would definately be the case. i don't think hoy was given to the fastest and best horse last year. it was given to the horse that showed excellance in regards to her classification and place in the game. how could anyone say with a straight face that any of the horses you listed above show that type of contribution this year over zenyatta. unless of course blame sweeps his last two races.


I must admit that Zenyatta has contributed a ton to the increased use of the phrase "restricted race".....I have never seen a year where it has been brought up so much when discussing which horse should win the Horse of the Year.....


So, Lookin at Lucky wins his next, then beats Zenyatta in the Classic and he doesnt get it? Interesting........


Your idea of HOY having something to do with the horse that has "contributed the most" is a pretty flawed notion IMO

bisket
09-06-2010, 10:13 PM
I must admit that Zenyatta has contributed a ton to the increased use of the phrase "restricted race".....I have never seen a year where it has been brought up so much when discussing which horse should win the Horse of the Year.....


So, Lookin at Lucky wins his next, then beats Zenyatta in the Classic and he doesnt get it? Interesting........


Your idea of HOY having something to do with the horse that has "contributed the most" is a pretty flawed notion IMO
in a year when the older male horses leave much to be desired. its the fall back..

i'm a big fan of lucky, and next to zen he's probably my favorite runner this year. i don't think a win in the classic is basis for hoy for him though. unless there is another horse that is head and shoulders above the rest. i don't see zenyatta losing the toss up this time. i think if blame sweeps these last two he wins. other than that it becomes murky and zen wins.

Relwob Owner
09-06-2010, 10:26 PM
in a year when the older male horses leave much to be desired. its the fall back..

i'm a big fan of lucky, and next to zen he's probably my favorite runner this year. i don't think a win in the classic is basis for hoy for him though. unless there is another horse that is head and shoulders above the rest. i don't see zenyatta losing the toss up this time. i think if blame sweeps these last two he wins. other than that it becomes murky and zen wins.

If LAL(or Blame, or Quality Road) beats Zenyatta, they win.......think about how illogical it would be if one of those three beats Zenyatta and then she wins HOY-would make no sense whatsoever.......her schedule this year has been cake on her preferred surface and she will have lost the BC so what would she hang her hat on? A bunch of relatively slow wins against soft opponents. The other three have accomplished much more and will have beaten her head to head.


Well enough of these hypotheticals....hopefully, they all stay healthy and face off.

bisket
09-06-2010, 10:34 PM
i think the others are hanging their hat on a bunch of slow wins against bad competition on their favorite surface just as well.

Relwob Owner
09-06-2010, 10:44 PM
i think the others are hanging their hat on a bunch of slow wins against bad competition on their favorite surface just as well.


If that is the case, then wouldnt a head to head win be the deciding factor?

joanied
09-07-2010, 06:32 PM
I agree! Member of this board who is going to BC has appts. at farm to meet n' greet Big Brown and Smarty Jones. The latter is one of his favs, and the former is one of his friend's faves.

I would probably enjoy the farm visits more than going to the BC races. :jump: Not fond of crowds. I would really have to decide who I want to see. I would have loved to see Seattle Slew when he was alive.

Winter & Pace...I would give a lot to visit the farms in kentucky...and I'd have many special horses I'd like to see, including a lot of mares...Winter...if given the choice, I really think I'd choose to visit the farms than attend the BC....hey, let's go:jump: :D :jump:

as for this topic...way to soon, but I do beleive the Classic winner, unless it's some kind of shocking upset, will get the votes...as of right now, I'd be torn between Zen & LaL...in my perfect little world, they'll hit the Classic wire in a dead heat:eek: