Your Single Best Handicapping Insight

[markgoldie]

Seems that many of the threads here rehash old arguments and opinions.

So, as a recap, I thought it might be interesting to survey the troops as to the single best handicapping insight you have proposed here (or even if you haven't proposed it here).

Take some time to think about it and just give us the best of the best because I know we all have many different operating methodologies going on concurrently.

Just pure handicapping theory here, although if we get enough interest, we could expand it on another thread to include wagering strategies. Explain in as much detail as necessary.

Any takers??

[46zilzal]

Completely disregarding man made class structures and just comparing relative abilities and stage of form cycle of the horses....

[Overlay]

Not original with me certainly, but it's preferable to handicap a race in terms of the value offered by each horse's or combination's chance of success in comparison with its odds or probable payoff, rather than from the perspective of removing entrants entirely from consideration through a process of elimination until only the one most likely winner remains.

[Brogan]

Completely disregarding man made class structures and just comparing relative abilities and stage of form cycle of the horses....

Empasis added above....isn't that what class is????

Btw, my response to the original question is class, Class, CLASS!

[46zilzal]

Empasis added....is that what class is????

Btw, my response to the original question is class, Class, CLASS!
not my definition of it, no

[Greyfox]

Find the pace, and who if any, can overcome it on today's surface while taking into account the "shape" of the race (as determined by the number who will seek to set the pace).

[thaskalos]

I am ashamed to admit that it took me 20 years to realize, that the horses are often "victims of circumstance", as far as their performances are concerned.

Now, I would advise the open-minded player, to be a lot more "visual" in his handicapping.

Every horseplayer is aware of the obvious reasons that affect the horses' performances...but the real value lies in the more subtle indications of trouble, IMO.

A slight, almost unnoticeable hesitation at the start, coupled with an outside post, can easily mean the difference between a win, and an 8th place finish, in some cases.

The same can be said about speed horses, entered in races "loaded" with early speed. The ones that contest the hot pace are often excused for their "suicide" performances...but the same is often not the case for those speed horses that are a length or two behind, in the early going.

Those "slower" speed horses are also greatly affected by the "hot" pace...and should also be excused for their lackluster efforts.

There are many cases like these, in which the horses are made to look a lot worse on paper, than they really are.

The speed figures are there for everyone to see, but...unless the player learns to relate these figures to the trips of the horses, and the pace of the race...he/she will never develop "real" understanding of this game.

[pandy]

Very good post Thaskalos!

[Charlie D]

The speed figures are there for everyone to see, but...unless the player learns to relate these figures to the trips of the horses, and the pace of the race...he/she will never develop "real" understanding of this game.




:ThmbUp:

[Charlie D]

This is from a handicapping book so you may think it's not much use Mark ;) :) (but it is)

1, Evaluate the Early part of the race.

Evaluate the chances of the horses involved in that part of the scenario then disqualify runners who don't measure up.

2, Evaluate the Pressers.

Most often, a weak Early pace picture strongly favours this type. They have first run at the leaders and must be given strong consideration.

3, Consider the Closers.

In most races these are the least probable winners. Avoid closers that are unable to reach a striking position by the stretch call. They are proven losers at every track in the country and only win with a complete collapse of the pace.


The format is simple. Unfortunately, most players have little organization in their approach and often proceed too quickly to betting decision. This procedure will give each type it's proper due. It will also ensure adequate understanding of the pace picture for the race you are about to bet.


See sig
V

[toetoe]

If Light hates the horse, take the rubber band off the bankroll. 'N dat's da name a dat tune. ;) .

[Robert Fischer]

"greed is good"

[CincyHorseplayer]

Recognizing a shift in the way races are playing within a card that is contradicting what happened yesterday.

As a diehard advocate and believer in "The Matchup" and all it's immortal truths,some might see it as apostasy,but I can recognize a bias.And sometimes it's because of overnight rains or wind etc.That's why I've learned to check weather reports.

Just as an example I noticed we had overnight rains here and our turf course was playing speed for weeks during the heatwave.I know when the turf gets wet in mid summer it favors offspeed horses.Plus I noticed a certain Florida stallion last winter producing winners at all prices on Turf when watching GP and TB last winter and had an entrant.2nd time on turf vs speed battle.That confluence of circumstances led to a great bet.He won by 9 at 7/2.But it was the single observation that got me on him.I felt utmost confidant.

I was rereading Litfin's 1st book the other day and it reaffirmed the impression, "Winning handicappers eventually discover that subjective,unmeasurable factors,such as trainers,trips,track biases,and physical appearance are the most potent source of concealed condition plays.It's all well and good to construct personal betting lines that alert you to to a first choice being overbet and a 2nd or 3rd choice being underbet,but only the most accurate oddsmaker can survive this way.""Vague" is a vague term until and unless a handicapper has informatoin about a horse that is concealed from most other bettors"

And in my young horseplayer youth(since 1996)I think it is.

It's all idiosyncratic.Whatever opinion and narrow view to any single race that is worth it's salt,that you believe in,is definitely the path to truth.And cashing is just a reinforcement.

But that's mine.

[CincyHorseplayer]

not my definition of it, no

"From a sample of more than 1,000 class droppers which showed they increased their BSF significantly on the drop.Taking all droppers,including those 29% whose BSF decreased the average figure Beyer figure improvement was an impressive 7 points"

"I brandished another control set of research stats that showed class risers decreasing their BSF by an average of 4 points"-Mark Cramer



Zil,I am from the same schoo as you are and would like to learn more from you on energy and such.But there has to be a recognition of the symmetry between class and numbers.They are relevant.And why isolate yourself from a broder perspective of knowledge?There is no Rosetta Stone for winning.

[offtrack]

To begin winning at the races specialize your research efforts until you have insights that the general wagering public does not have.

[rmania]

I am ashamed to admit that it took me 20 years to realize, that the horses are often "victims of circumstance", as far as their performances are concerned.

Now, I would advise the open-minded player, to be a lot more "visual" in his handicapping.

Every horseplayer is aware of the obvious reasons that affect the horses' performances...but the real value lies in the more subtle indications of trouble, IMO.

A slight, almost unnoticeable hesitation at the start, coupled with an outside post, can easily mean the difference between a win, and an 8th place finish, in some cases.

The same can be said about speed horses, entered in races "loaded" with early speed. The ones that contest the hot pace are often excused for their "suicide" performances...but the same is often not the case for those speed horses that are a length or two behind, in the early going.

Those "slower" speed horses are also greatly affected by the "hot" pace...and should also be excused for their lackluster efforts.

There are many cases like these, in which the horses are made to look a lot worse on paper, than they really are.

The speed figures are there for everyone to see, but...unless the player learns to relate these figures to the trips of the horses, and the pace of the race...he/she will never develop "real" understanding of this game.
I second that statement.

[lamboguy]

paying attention is what the greatest handicapping tool. i am guilty of it, i missed a $22 winner yesterday at saratoga because i fell asleep. i missed a $29 last week in calder by the newest reason i have ever seen, i sold a horse for $20k to an exercise rider, i had the name plugged in to my stable alerts, the guy outsmarted me, he changed the name of the horse! you can change the name before the horse ever runs. the guy left nothing to chance he ran the horse for $25k mcl.

[HUSKER55]

I think horses have a "comfort zone", (for lack of a better term), where they pay off at.

The race melds at this point: "What are the dynamics of the race" and "does this horse have a shot".

There are a lot of subleties and top numbers don't always show a profit.

I guess I am more concerned with "did I make a good bet".

[Robert Goren]

The size of the daily track variant matters. Horses who earned a high number on day when the daily variant was high do not always run back that number when the daily variant is low and vice versa. That is my opinion the most overlooked thing when dealing with speed figures.

[GaryG]

The size of the daily track variant matters. Horses who earned a high number on day when the daily variant was high do not always run back that number when the daily variant is low and vice versa. That is my opinion the most overlooked thing when dealing with speed figures.Robert, I agree 100%. Those that just use published figures don't have the variant that went into the figs. There was a fast filly at Del Mar a few years back named Desert Stormer. If the track was hard and extra fast she was money in the bank.

[baldvin]

mY single bigest insite is that with Outrageous rake off game cant be beat by average Joe. That why game is dying and new blood staying away.

horse racing game of old codgers who don't know better than to stay away and stop wasting time.

[ikeika]

Learning the body language.

[markgoldie]

"From a sample of more than 1,000 class droppers which showed they increased their BSF significantly on the drop.Taking all droppers,including those 29% whose BSF decreased the average figure Beyer figure improvement was an impressive 7 points"

"I brandished another control set of research stats that showed class risers decreasing their BSF by an average of 4 points"-Mark Cramer



Zil,I am from the same schoo as you are and would like to learn more from you on energy and such.But there has to be a recognition of the symmetry between class and numbers.They are relevant.And why isolate yourself from a broder perspective of knowledge?There is no Rosetta Stone for winning.
Since I started the thread, only appropriate that I post my main contribution.

This touches on it in part- that there is a direct correlation between the speed fig and the class in which it is earned.

Since I normally use Bris figs, I can say after looking at many thousands of races over the years, that a very good ballpark average is that speed types will be affected by a factor of 2 SPD pts. per 1 class pt. move. Bris designates the class strength with the abbreviation RR (race rating). Non-speed types will be affected by a factor of 1 SPD pt. per class difference. I used to simply look at Quirin speed points to decide if a horse was properly designated a speed type or non-speed type, with my cutoff being =>3 as being a speed type. I have refined this now to where I look at average early pace versus average late pace to make the determination. If the horse shows at least a 3 pt. greater average early pace than late pace, I consider him a speed horse; if not, he's a closing type and this is the determination I use to adjust the earned SPD fig by 1 or 2 points. For ultimate accuracy, I believe a formula could be derived that makes very extreme speed types even affected by more than a factor of 2 pts. per class and very late runners affected by less than 1 pt. per class, but I have not refined it that closely.

[I should also note that I agree that the written condition of the race tells us little about the strength of the event. And that's why I like the Bris RR designation. It evaluates the strength of the race on the basis of the strength of the horses entered and not a class par.]

My second insight is that the pace of the race affects all horses in the event as to SPD fig. The faster the pace, the more difficult the event such that we must adjust the SPD number upward and the slower the pace, the easier the event such that we must adjust the SPD number lower. The key distinction here is that I am not talking about finish position. So, for example, a very hot pace may allow a C-type to finish much better positionally than he would have in a slow-paced race, but it will not allow him to produce a higher personal SPD fig for himself than he otherwise would have. As I have said, there is nothing at all about a fast pace raging far ahead of the slow-footed closer that allows him to post a better personal speed performance. In fact, in most cases, it puts the closer out of his preferred "positional" zone such that the jockey is apt to ask for a self-defeating earlier-than-normal run from the badly lagging animal. And this is why an very fast pace tends to disadvantage the coser as well as the speed horses as to personal SPD number.

I look at E2 pace, either + or - from class par and adjust at the rate of 1 SPD point per 3 pace points (either + or -) as it varies from par. Hence a horse racing in a +3 E2 race gets 1 SPD point added and a horse in a -6 E2 race gets 2 SPD points subtracted.

Clearly this is all a small part of the total picture, but IMO important in understanding the meaning of SPD figs.

[markgoldie]

mY single bigest insite is that with Outrageous rake off game cant be beat by average Joe. That why game is dying and new blood staying away.

horse racing game of old codgers who don't know better than to stay away and stop wasting time.
Okay.

So why are you lurking on this site??

[cj]

My second insight is that the pace of the race affects all horses in the event as to SPD fig. The faster the pace, the more difficult the event such that we must adjust the SPD number upward and the slower the pace, the easier the event such that we must adjust the SPD number lower. The key distinction here is that I am not talking about finish position. So, for example, a very hot pace may allow a C-type to finish much better positionally than he would have in a slow-paced race, but it will not allow him to produce a higher personal SPD fig for himself than he otherwise would have. As I have said, there is nothing at all about a fast pace raging far ahead of the slow-footed closer that allows him to post a better personal speed performance. In fact, in most cases, it puts the closer out of his preferred "positional" zone such that the jockey is apt to ask for a self-defeating earlier-than-normal run from the badly lagging animal. And this is why an very fast pace tends to disadvantage the coser as well as the speed horses as to personal SPD number.


I would say this may be true with BRIS figures, but not with Beyers and others. All horses are different, but most closers run faster figures when the pace is hot. It really depends on the jockey and how well the actual pace is gauged. Monarchos is a textbook case. His Derby was by far his fastest race, and it was also the race with, by far, the hottest, most contested pace.

[raybo]

Current condition evaluation!

How you accomplish it isn't as important as accomplishing it. Through this analysis one gains a familiarity with each horse in the race, his/her likes and dislikes, capabilities, running style preferences, pace capabilities vs final run, etc..

It's like reading a book, the more often you do it the more complete knowledge of the subject you gain, and the quicker you can accomplish it.

[markgoldie]

I would say this may be true with BRIS figures, but not with Beyers and others. All horses are different, but most closers run faster figures when the pace is hot. It really depends on the jockey and how well the actual pace is gauged. Monarchos is a textbook case. His Derby was by far his fastest race, and it was also the race with, by far, the hottest, most contested pace.
My statement is general, of course, and will not apply to all situations. However, I have noticed a difference in better quality races than in the run-of-the-mill variety which compromise most of the racing in NA. Better-quality races, especially those over 7f, tend to be somewhat tactical in nature. Hence, closing types may have to be rated in the early going, simply because they don't want to be part of the speed. This is particularly true on grass. Consequently, when such closers find an unusually fast-paced race, they may get into a comfortable stride and indeed will post better-than-normal numbers. So, if you only bet stakes and high-quality allowance races at a distance, my generalization will not hold well.

On the other hand, in most races which we encounter, C types are pretty much running what they can in the early stages in most, if not all, of their efforts. Of course, C types have good and bad days as do all horses, but the race in which the pace is unusually fast, there's nothing going on which will help them post a faster personal speed. Once in awhile, a C type will actually respond to more vigorous handling a bit earlier in the event when the jockey sees himself falling helplessly behind. But I think these cases are pretty isolated. More likely is that the premature movement hinders, rather than helps the personal speed number. Just as speed types have a "pace comfort" zone, so to do C types. We pretty much accept as a given that early speed types can easily be taken out of their pace comfort zone by a hot pace, but I think this generally applies to closers as well. Unlike harness racing, where there is a demonstrable "drafting" effect, thoroughbreds do do get "dragged along" by fast early speed.

[Ocala Mike]

It's not really an insight as much as an observation, and at that I'm sure it's common knowledge.

Simply put, it is a truism that many horses will EITHER improve dramatically or regress dramatically from their FIRST to their SECOND start. Your job, if you like to play maiden races (as I do), is to try to figure out the relative chances of each type of occurrence against the tote board.

As an anecdotal example (and they are not hard to find), I offer up today's 2nd race at Saratoga for your consideration. The 3-5 favorite and the 10-1 winner were both coming out of the SAME race and both running for the second time. One moved forward, and one regressed; happens all the time.

Put another way, I generally take a horse's great performance in its debut with a grain of salt, and am willing to "forgive" a poor initial outing.

Ocala Mike

[Fastracehorse]

"From a sample of more than 1,000 class droppers which showed they increased their BSF significantly on the drop.Taking all droppers,including those 29% whose BSF decreased the average figure Beyer figure improvement was an impressive 7 points"

"I brandished another control set of research stats that showed class risers decreasing their BSF by an average of 4 points"-Mark Cramer



Zil,I am from the same schoo as you are and would like to learn more from you on energy and such.But there has to be a recognition of the symmetry between class and numbers.They are relevant.And why isolate yourself from a broder perspective of knowledge?There is no Rosetta Stone for winning.

I think the important point is whether or not these droppers are good wagers.

I think most times they are not - even with a 7 point increase. There are droppers that win yes; but over time I doubt it is a profitable angle.

Alot of droppers aren't doing well; or aren't competing well. U and Cramer might want to look at risers; I luv these types.

fffastt

[Fastracehorse]

It's not really an insight as much as an observation, and at that I'm sure it's common knowledge.

Simply put, it is a truism that many horses will EITHER improve dramatically or regress dramatically from their FIRST to their SECOND start. Your job, if you like to play maiden races (as I do), is to try to figure out the relative chances of each type of occurrence against the tote board.

As an anecdotal example (and they are not hard to find), I offer up today's 2nd race at Saratoga for your consideration. The 3-5 favorite and the 10-1 winner were both coming out of the SAME race and both running for the second time. One moved forward, and one regressed; happens all the time.

Put another way, I generally take a horse's great performance in its debut with a grain of salt, and am willing to "forgive" a poor initial outing.

Ocala Mike

Probably could bet the 3 off works; don't know how good they are after running like it did it's first start but looks like they backed their charge

fffastt

[Fastracehorse]

I'm a paper handicapper for sure; but I love to watch the parade. I really think it connects me better to the race.

There are countless times where the looks of a horse have aided me in a positive way.

It probably takes some seasoning and confidence if you aren't used to watching horses warm up but my advice is to let them come to you; IOWs relax and wait for a horse to grab your attention; looks combined with your best angles will lead you in the right direction.

fffastt

[Greyfox]

More likely is that the premature movement hinders, rather than helps the personal speed number. .

Absolutely true. :ThmbUp:
(Probably why top jocks get top steeds.)

[speculus]

Realizing that even the "best numbers" can only be the second-best solution to the handicapping puzzle.

[baldvin]

Okay.

So why are you lurking on this site??

becuz my best friend is horse racing degenrate; and sometimes somebody say sumthing intellegnt i can help him with.

[Greyfox]

becuz my best friend is horse racing degenrate; and sometimes somebody say sumthing intellegnt i can help him with.

Looks like your best friend has a degenerate for a friend. Move on to another message board.

[baldvin]

Looks like your best friend has a degenerate for a friend. Move on to another message board.not degenerate. i work hard and go to school. i live in las vegas and don't gamble. i see people lose much money every day gambling. if i learn how to win then maybe. but from what i see no one win--unless, of course, you pay big bucks to learn. my friend work hard and lose all his money gambling. motsly on horse racing. sad to see.

i come from Iceland to America because free country. you are allowed to expres opinoin here.

if my opinon not welcome owner of board please tell me. then i go.

mean time i don't take orders from troll.

[Greyfox]

not degenerate. i work hard and go to school. i live in las vegas and don't gamble. i see people lose much money every day gambling. if i learn how to win then maybe. but from what i see no one win--unless, of course, you pay big bucks to learn. my friend work hard and lose all his money gambling. motsly on horse racing. sad to see.

i come from Iceland to America because free country. you are allowed to expres opinoin here.

if my opinon not welcome owner of board please tell me. then i go.

mean time i don't take orders from troll.

The title of this thread is: "Your single best handicapping insight."

You have made 3 posts in it (# 21, # 34 and # 36.)
None of these posts have addressed the topic at hand.
For instance, even if you had said "Beware the lone speed horse."
you would have made a contribution here.
But your posts don't do that. They simply reflect that you are essentially ignorant of horse racing dynamics. Hence, your comments detract from the remainder of the discussion in a serious qualitative manner.
My comments have nothing to do with your freedom to express your opinion.
They are about the value of the opinions that you are expressing in this forum. For starters they are not on topic at all. Surely they teach comprehension of subject in Iceland. Do yourself and us a favor, move on.

Now back to handicapping insights.

[Fastracehorse]

Realizing that even the "best numbers" can only be the second-best solution to the handicapping puzzle.

....are awesome.

fffastt

[andymays]

There is no way to predict certain random events that unfold during the course of any given race.

[Fingal]

Whether one uses fundamentals or a number based means of selection, learning the hard way that when things look too good they usually are.

[cj]

Isn't Persistently a perfect fit for what I mentioned yesterday? She certainly ran a lifetime best off of very fast fractions.

[markgoldie]

Isn't Persistently a perfect fit for what I mentioned yesterday? She certainly ran a lifetime best off of very fast fractions.
Cj;

Clearly, you are one of the very top handicappers and respected members of this forum. So please believe me when I say that I am honestly baffled a bit by your two posts relative to closers into fast paces and personal best speed numbers.

You mention Monarchos as a "textbook" example and now mention Persistently. But surely you understand that a two-sample anecdote proves so little it shouldn't be worth mentioning. In fact, a two hundred-horse example would prove nothing useful as well.

We all know that anything can and does happen in individual races. And we seem to have a group here that takes every opportunity to point out the unpredictability and randomness of events. But unfortunately, if we are going to play these things, we have to somehow, somewhere begin to rely on generalities. A good example would be the numbers you produce. Certainly, you believe they have some general validity and applicability. Does that mean that they will predict the outcome of all races? Of course not. We understand that. But, in general we know that your lowest-rated horse will seldom beat your top-rated horse. Does it ever happen in reverse? Sure. And if we cited 50 cases where this happened, would it prove your numbers worthless? Of course not.

Now. Among posters here, I am as scrupulous as anyone in pointing out anecdotal evidence as opposed to controlled, large-sample research. Sometimes I preface a comment by the phrase "I have noticed..." This is a shorthand disclaimer that what I am about to say is based on anecdotal observations, rather than a controlled, exhaustive study.

In the curent case, I have stated two things: (1) What I have observed anecdotally (albeit over a number of years and over many thousands of events). Yet even this is purely anecdotal because my memory could be bad or I am routinely dismissing counter examples due to an ingrained belief. And (2) The basic theory of the proposition seems to make sense on the basis of how I see races being run and the behavior of horses in those races.

Does this make me right? No. Not necessarily, and I will defer to any large-sample, controlled research that shows the contrary. But until then, I believe what I believe and I proceed as I proceed.

[cj]

Cj;

Clearly, you are one of the very top handicappers and respected members of this forum. So please believe me when I say that I am honestly baffled a bit by your two posts relative to closers into fast paces and personal best speed numbers.

You mention Monarchos as a "textbook" example and now mention Persistently. But surely you understand that a two-sample anecdote proves so little it shouldn't be worth mentioning. In fact, a two hundred-horse example would prove nothing useful as well.

We all know that anything can and does happen in individual races. And we seem to have a group here that takes every opportunity to point out the unpredictability and randomness of events. But unfortunately, if we are going to play these things, we have to somehow, somewhere begin to rely on generalities. A good example would be the numbers you produce. Certainly, you believe they have some general validity and applicability. Does that mean that they will predict the outcome of all races? Of course not. We understand that. But, in general we know that your lowest-rated horse will seldom beat your top-rated horse. Does it ever happen in reverse? Sure. And if we cited 50 cases where this happened, would it prove your numbers worthless? Of course not.

Now. Among posters here, I am as scrupulous as anyone in pointing out anecdotal evidence as opposed to controlled, large-sample research. Sometimes I preface a comment by the phrase "I have noticed..." This is a shorthand disclaimer that what I am about to say is based on anecdotal observations, rather than a controlled, exhaustive study.

In the curent case, I have stated two things: (1) What I have observed anecdotally (albeit over a number of years and over many thousands of events). Yet even this is purely anecdotal because my memory could be bad or I am routinely dismissing counter examples due to an ingrained belief. And (2) The basic theory of the proposition seems to make sense on the basis of how I see races being run and the behavior of horses in those races.

Does this make me right? No. Not necessarily, and I will defer to any large-sample, controlled research that shows the contrary. But until then, I believe what I believe and I proceed as I proceed.

I understand your point, and I agree it can and does happen. I have a very large database and test out almost everything I post. I just try not to bore people with all the data because that tends to be a thread killer.

What I have found is that most closers run their best figures (at least the ones I make) when the pace is fast. BRIS could very well do things differently, I really don't know. That goes for good horses and cheap horses alike. There is a point where a blistering pace makes all horses run slower, but it is very tough to analyze and find that exact breaking point. I try to adjust my figures for pace, and by far the toughest adjustment is to figure out what adjustment should be made for deep closers when they run above average pace times. It does happen often enough to be a problem, and the two I mention are just a few well known examples. What I have found is that it is almost never a good idea to boost the speed figure of a closer when the pace was fast. They almost always run their best figure wise on those days. Again, maybe BRIS and I do something vastly different philosophically, but I don't think that is the case.

In my opinion, a ton of it has to do with the jockey and how far back he lets the horse stay and when he makes his move. It also, of course, depends on the relative quality of the closers in the race.

[DeanT]

I find (using my jcapper DB) that closers are a smooth curve. However, individually, there are some amazing sticking points,, which I think Mark touches quite well.

Some closers absolutely have to go 25, 25 to fire their best shot in the last quarter and run a top. if the jock gets excited (say he is "keeping an eye" on his main foe) and he goes 25, 24, the horse can and will falter late. The same occurs in the internal two splits from 2 to 6f. Horses that do not move tactically there whom are closers, will run a slower number. With deep closers the internal splits, even if the raw time is the same play a big part in how good they are late. Being comfortable is so very underrated, imo.

As well, a lot of closers do need a target, and if that target is swallowed up, they will relax.

Speed horses go, they run fast, straight and do what they do, and will run very similar numbers all things being equal (ie there is a duel or a horse hads them and they call it a day). For closers, a lot can go wrong, other than the obvious (traffic). I tend to look what a closer did internally, a lot more closely than what a speed horse did.

[cj]

I will add that fast paces tend to string out the fields and make for easier travel for the closers. Slow paces bunch the fields and cause traffic.

[Greyfox]

In my opinion, a ton of it has to do with the jockey and how far back he lets the horse stay and when he makes his move..

I think that you are on to something there.
When the Pace is blistering, the front runners are expending high early energy.
The astute jockey can sense that the closer that he is riding may have a shot at the win and runs by tiring horses.
When the Pace is moderate or soft, the jockey realizes that those in front will have considerable energy left for the stretch run and the win won't be possible. I suspect that some jocks won't kill their horses by turning on all the burners of these closers and hence have something left in the tank for another day. (That suspicion more likely holds water for non-Graded races.)

[thaskalos]

CJ,

Have you found your theory (that stretch runners run their best speed figures in fast-paced races), to be equally valid, in sprints and routes alike?

I have observed that the fast pace has a more detrimental affect on the closer in a sprint, rather than a route.

[Robert Fischer]

I think the best insight that I have shared online has been explaining how important favorites are in the parimutuel system.

it's a beginners concept, but still shapes the way that I invest my time. I don't mind sharing general beginner's concepts, as much as I do more advanced things. Some players thrive off of the discussion and believe in a highly "transparent" process, but I would rather some of the insights stay dark.

Another lesser, but interesting insight I have touched on has been micro-capping (nano-capping?, detail oriented?, your name here etc...) where one takes advantage of HD video and/or digital photography, along with an understanding of the physics or physiology in order to gain insights into the sport. Some other members (jasonm? come to mind?) have also uploaded wonderful pictures with insight into big moments. With the information biz, anything that provides valuable info is very cool.

[cj]

CJ,

Have you found your theory (that stretch runners run their best speed figures in fast-paced races), to be equally valid, in sprints and routes alike?

I have observed that the fast pace has a more detrimental affect on the closer in a sprint, rather than a route.

I haven't found a big difference to be honest, but sprints do tend to be affected more. I think it is very tough for a jockey to drop way, way back in a sprint.

[riskman]

Find the pace, and who if any, can overcome it on today's surface while taking into account the "shape" of the race (as determined by the number who will seek to set the pace).

This basically is my strategy. In addition, it is important to know what did work as well as what did not work on the races we wager on.

[therussmeister]

My best insight:

Winning at this game is straight-ahead, no-holds-barred, blinkers-on, don't-be-distracted, rational thinking. Something for which the human brain is poorly equipped, and has no interest in doing.

Put your thought process under a microscope, and mercilessly seek and destroy all irrational thinking.

[BELMONT 6-6-09]

I believe that handicapping yourself is an important item for every bettor to address. For example: How do I react to bad beats, prolonged losing/winning streaks, betting mistakes,bordem, periods of little confidence, etc. This is just as important as any handicapping factor responsible for selecting consistent winners IMO

Interesting thread.

[Fastracehorse]

Whether one uses fundamentals or a number based means of selection, learning the hard way that when things look too good they usually are.

................a horses looks to good to be true and it isn't :(

fffastt

[speculus]

The best numbers....are awesome.

fffastt

Awesome? Maybe.

Profitable long term? Perhaps not.

[W2G]

I think the singular approach to handicapping is embodied in the old axiom: "It's not how fast they run, it's how they run fast."

Just one little sentence but it reminds one to evaluate all of the important factors (pace, trips, class, conditions, etc.) of each and every past performance as well as the race under study. Just one little sentence but so easy to forget.

[Altair1]

I look for patterns in the running lines, with running styles. Usually don't play one dimensional types, front runners that haven't showed ability to close ground, or closers. Never key these types in exactas, which is my main bet. I recommend going over pps starting with sprints from 5 and a half, to 7f. Write down the running lines prior to a horses winning. If the horse was in trouble, write the running line before it down. Look for a minus pace running line action. Start with horses running on the same track, or with equal trk class. Use this for class drop downs only, or for horses coming out of key fast races in the same class. There are patterns in the running lines that are useful in handicapping. Also, do what your good at, specialize.

[mountainman]

Good handicapping requires both sound logic and seasoned intuition. Maintain a balance. Don't let either rule the other.

[Market Mover]

3rd off a layoff angle. its one of the most powerful and yet volatile angles in all of racing. Astute handicappers will realize races more often than not are used to get a horse into shape. Form cycles, if read and understood correctly, could yield tremendous dividends....

[Irish Boy]

Don't be afraid to hammer an overlay that looks too "low" to be profitable. A $22 exacta might be small, but 10-1 for what could very easily be the most likely result in the race is very good. Sometimes, you can outcute yourself. Take the 10-1 if you feel there's a better than 10% chance of that happening.

[Fastracehorse]

Awesome? Maybe.

Profitable long term? Perhaps not.

Absolutely; any good # should show a profit.

Bet them blindly when they show a 4 length advantage and you will make a profit.

fffastt

[46zilzal]

Zil,I am from the same school as you are and would like to learn more from you on energy and such.But there has to be a recognition of the symmetry between class and numbers.They are relevant.And why isolate yourself from a broader perspective of knowledge?There is no Rosetta Stone for winning.
Disregarding helps the ROI as class structure may be the biggest con in the entire game....Horses run to their form cycle and abilities.....
Selling racing are another thing altogether

[metroman]

FIND ONE RACE A DAY THAT YOU FEEL STRONGLY ABOUT AND BET IT EVERY WHICH WAY BUT LOOSE............EASIER SAID THAN DONE.THEN MAKE IT EXTRA CHALLENGING BY MAKING THE PLAY 5-1+! SEE THE SEVENTH AT SARATOGA TOMORROW # 5 POWER DREAMS.

[thaskalos]

Absolutely; any good # should show a profit.

Bet them blindly when they show a 4 length advantage and you will make a profit.

fffasttGuess again...

[Stillriledup]

Can't give out my best stuff, but i would say that big edges lie in NOT overrating the humans. Getting a very good horse with a no name jock and/or trainer is usually the best bet in racing.

[CincyHorseplayer]

Disregarding helps the ROI as class structure may be the biggest con in the entire game....Horses run to their form cycle and abilities.....
Selling racing are another thing altogether

Are you saying that you never encounter races that are unpredictable??That chaos rules without figs and energy??

I find that pretentious.

By your standards I'm some hillbilly scrub bettor but I have a 69% ROI since April using my feeble concepts.

You use your figures on an isolated circuit where IMO they work best.But they don't embody universal truth.

And oh by the way.Quit speaking in deliberate cryptic,obscurities,it's annoying!!!!:)

[GARY Z]

a:read the various handicapping books previously mentioned on this siite,
understand the nuances associated with speed, pace,tranier/jockey
stats and positiion, and issues with trips.

B: visualize the way the race will unfold and make notes after the race
as to figure horses who lost due to trip,pace etc..

C: Always demand value in betting .


D: for further advice on proper manueuvers, watch the selections
of the TVG crew in pick 3/4/ and 6 selections. You potentially
will have a gold mine by selecting Remaining entries in each race
if they present(generally) higher odds and have a poetntal of
hitting the board on the above described scenarios.

[46zilzal]

Are you saying that you never encounter races that are unpredictable??That chaos rules without figs and energy??

I find that pretentious.


And oh by the way.Quit speaking in deliberate cryptic,obscurities,it's annoying!!!!:)
Quit READING cryptic malarkey into what I DID NOT SAY and you will be fine

[markgoldie]

This is not about a particular handicapping methodology, but more of a mindset. When I was a young man sitting at the knee (so to speak) of the man we called "The Professor," I noticed the following:

On his Racing Form (or possibly the Morning Telegraph in those days), he had every raced marked up in different colored ink. There were trip notes, class notes, track bias notes, trainer notes, fractional highlighting, etc. Clearly, he had done hours of work on the card.

However, many times, as the race approached, while going over the race, he would glance at the odds's board and with a couple of minutes to post, he would put the form down, look up and say, "There's nothing here." This meant he wasn't playing the race and others in the group could do so, of course, at their own peril.

The point is that despite all the excruciating work he had put in on the event, he was perfectly willing to sit and pass it simply because he didn't sense the value in the bet. So here was an expert with a much better opinion than the average player who would routinely defer to the crowd. He used to sometimes say, "You're betting horses, but you're playing the other players.

I often wonder how he would handle this day and age where the betting line is set 30 seconds after the race goes off.

[mountainman]

Horses show their limitations when they win, not when they lose.

[bisket]

the single most important angle that i use is looking at how a race will take shape, and how that will affect the runners. what happened during all the races that the fastest horse ran his best races. what happened during a race that the fastest horse ran his worst races.

for instance in the ensign i noticed that rachel reacts negatively to running inside the early speed in a race. no matter whether the early pace was fast or slow she never ran a productive race under these circumstances. i was fairly sure she would be inside life at ten early. every time this happened this year she lost to inferior horses at shorter distances. why would this not happen again? especially with her running an extra 1/16 further than she has ever run.

horses are creatures of habit and are fairly predictable. distance is a big factor in an analysis like this. who ran their best races at today's distance and on a similar surface as today? if they are going longer in distance than before: were they moving forwardly in the majority of their races at the shorter distances (of course you have to take fitness into consideration with this analysis). many times looking at these things will yield good plays on longshots. this angle can be very powerful, and most handicappers don't even consider it....

[Nitro]

Acknowledging that the overall Conditions of each race change from day-to-day, are different from race to race, and govern the intentions of those who enter their horses.

Understanding that the conclusions derived from handicapping in any form are purely subjective speculation.

Realizing that humans control every aspect of the game and that their primary goals involve making money at the expense of both sophisticated and naïve players alike.

Accepting that those on the inside know much more about the actual condition of their animals at any given time then those reading about them or viewing them in a post parade.

Playing only those types of races that have previously produced a reasonable profit and positive hit rate frequency.

Accepting losses without letting them affect subsequent plays or disrupting money management strategies.

[sammy the sage]

Quit READING cryptic malarkey into what I DID NOT SAY and you will be fine

that's :lol:

perhaps if you'll QUIT WRITING cryptic malarkey, your ACTUAL message..(that is if there EVER is one) might be better perceived by others! :bang:

[sammy the sage]

ok, back to thread topic...some tracks when muddy/sloppy then starting to dry out develop an EXTREME inside speed bias VERY quickly!

Calder, Charlestown, Ellis Park to name a few!

[TrifectaMike]

Avoid Kelly wagering like the plague.

Risk of ruin is too great due to uncertainity of all the parameters, which makes Kelly wagering ineffective as a long term wagering strategy.

Avoid methods that are average based: NN's, GA's, etc.

Methods based on averages maximize calibration at the expense of sharpness.
Whereas the goal should be to maximize sharpness subject to calibration.

Each race is a unque event and should be viewd as such in determining probabilities and wagering strategies.

The tote odds are well calibrated pooling schemes. Maximizing sharpness will separate you from the pooling.

Anyone making their own oddsline (probabilities) should strife for a concave probability distribution.

Mike

[skate]

Completely disregarding man made class structures and just comparing relative abilities and stage of form cycle of the horses....


Sometimes...but it depends on the Circuit.

[skate]

When you are done cappin, put your higher odds on TOP.

[Exotic1]

that's :lol:

perhaps if you'll QUIT WRITING cryptic malarkey, your ACTUAL message..(that is if there EVER is one) might be better perceived by others! :bang:

To Cincy and Sammy,

Don't waste time responding to that guy. Not to say that his posts aren't valuable.... They are, by knowing which horses to throw out. If he says that class is meaningless or doesn't exist, then class is the way to go until he changes his mind. If he says energy median is the way to go, then you throw away all the energy distribution stuff and you go Cramer's running positions. If he says he likes the 6,3,2 with the 1 chasing and the 4 coming from out of the clouds, then you just box 5 and 7 and wait at the window. Have you seen this guys selections? 5 horses in every race without the winner - how is that even possible?

[RaceBookJoe]

I cant really call this insight, but the main thing i would say would be that not only do you have to use ALL of your knowledge, first you have to get the knowledge and then know WHEN to apply it. Even though the overall concept of handicapping is constant ( front runners out winging it while the pressers and closers attempt to mow them down )....the race by race applications are different, ie turf vs dirt, sprint/route. rbj

[cj]

Very few horses maintain form more than a couple races. They are either in decline or improving.

[Irish Boy]

Very few horses maintain form more than a couple races. They are either in decline or improving.
Quick question CJ: with so much of figure-making based on projections and assumptions about at least some of the horses in the field running to previous form, doesn't your point above someone go against the projection method? Not saying either is wrong, just wondering if there isn't a tension there.

[cj]

Quick question CJ: with so much of figure-making based on projections and assumptions about at least some of the horses in the field running to previous form, doesn't your point above someone go against the projection method? Not saying either is wrong, just wondering if there isn't a tension there.

I try to project these improvements and declines in my numbers. I'm not perfect, but after years of doing this I've become pretty good. I also use pace numbers which give me an edge on final time only figure makers, a big edge.

[pandy]

Can't give out my best stuff, but i would say that big edges lie in NOT overrating the humans. Getting a very good horse with a no name jock and/or trainer is usually the best bet in racing.

At the big tracks, this isn't usually true, for instance at Saratoga there are always trainers/rider who go the entire meet without a win. But at the small tracks, I totally agree. It amazes me how many horses win off a seemingly negative rider change at the small tracks.

[TurfRuler]

FIND ONE RACE A DAY THAT YOU FEEL STRONGLY ABOUT AND BET IT EVERY WHICH WAY BUT LOOSE............EASIER SAID THAN DONE.THEN MAKE IT EXTRA CHALLENGING BY MAKING THE PLAY 5-1+! SEE THE SEVENTH AT SARATOGA TOMORROW # 5 POWER DREAMS.

"To Know and to keep Silent" is not your favorite handicapping method.

[TurfRuler]

Some tidbits from the life of Frank H. Burnell: The father of the Racing Form on how to unlock the secrets of handicapping, learn from your mistakes, learn form, and gain knowledge of horses preferred distance, tracks, etc., figures outclass all other measures in handicapping, time is an important factor, perform laborious mathematical and intellectual analysis of the sport, a horse’s past record is predictive of his next performance…..

After my years of picking losers here is what I’ve discovered….in utilizing the entire past performance data, don’t put your entire stock in the crowd favorite “today”, if he ain’t retired he will lose by a nose a whisker or a hair, i.e. Gio Ponti, Informed Decision, Trappe Shot, Phola….. Disregard the crowd favorite and your own top pick if it is the one the crowd is going with and find the horse that is ready to run a winning race today.

[Greyfox]

Disregard the crowd favorite and your own top pick if it is the one the crowd is going with and find the horse that is ready to run a winning race today.

Good betting advice, but 1/3 of the time the favorite is ready to run a winning race today. A horse can't be tossed just because he/she is the favorite.

[TurfRuler]

Good betting advice, but 1/3 of the time the favorite is ready to run a winning race today. A horse can't be tossed just because he/she is the favorite.

Of course not, don't toss the favorite in a multi-race play, but on a single race "bet a little to win a lot, not a lot to win a little."