The Travers - So who'd ya like ?

[point given]

Can't believe there is nary a thread i could find on the Travers,

For some reason I'm thinkng the Jim Dandy latecomers Afleet Express and Fly Down boxed with Trappe Shot will be my bet.

[David-LV]

These will be my plays in todays Travers:

:5: with:1::2::7: exacta box

:5:with :1::2::7:with:1::2::7: Trifecta

:1::2::7:with:5:with:1::2::7: Trifecta

:1::2::5: with :1::2::5::7::8::9::11: with :1::2::5::7::8::9::11: with :1::2::5::7::8::9::11:
ten cent superperfecta

Good Luck To All On a Great Day Of Racing On Both Coasts.

__________
David-LV

[redshift1]

These will be my plays in todays Travers:

:5: with:1::2::7: exacta box

:5:with :1::2::7:with:1::2::7: Trifecta

:1::2::7:with:5:with:1::2::7: Trifecta

:1::2::5: with :1::2::5::7::8::9::11: with :1::2::5::7::8::9::11: with :1::2::5::7::8::9::11:
ten cent superperfecta

Good Luck To All On a Great Day Of Racing On Both Coasts.

__________
David-LV

Good luck to you, I guess your hoping for a slow pace compromising the deep closers ..... no 6 in your selections.

[David-LV]

Good luck to you, I guess your hoping for a slow pace compromising the deep closers ..... no 6 in your selections.


I may be wrong but, I think the 6 is a little to slow for these.

You rarely get a very fast pace at 1 1/4 mile distance at Saratoga.

Good Luck,


_________
David-LV

[depalma113]

1) First Dude
2) Fly Down
3) Trappe Shot

[Bobzilla]

:6:
:11:
:8:
:7:

I was reading Ics Box is excitable. Zito hopes he can channel all his energy towards the race. I'm hoping that if there is some contention up front he can continue on the path he was starting in Florida and Kentucky. I don't have a strong opinion on this race at all but I'm thinking that if today is the last chance to get IB at a very good price, and if the FD and KD were better indicators of his potential form than the Belmont, then maybe today will be the day to play him. Then again he might disappoint again.
Heading up now for the 3 hour journey. Good Luck!

[jefftune]

TRAPPE SHOT had a pretty awful trip in the Haskell. He broke last from the gate, was wide on both turns, and still finished a very good second to Lookin At Lucky.

TRAPPE SHOT
A LITTLE WARM
AFLEET EXPRESS

[judd]

no 2 trappe shot w-p-s

[bane]

Afleet Express.

[GARY Z]

Afleet Express, Jim will continue the tradition of his dad.

Exacta box with Miner's Reserve and even toss in Admiral Alex, a Bro'
of AE

:jump: :jump:

[eastie]

Afleet Express.


I second that emotion

[horses4courses]

I think Trappe Shot continues to improve here......he ran well in the Haskell, and has no Lucky to contend with this time.

Trappe Shot takes it from Afleet Express (another with his best races ahead of him).

[Jasonm921]

A Little Warm
Trappe Shot
Miners Reserve

[GaryG]

:5: A LITTLE WARM
:7: AFLEET EXPRESS
:2: TRAPPE SHOT

[andymays]

I'm going to take a shot on Trappe Shot. I didn't think the got the best trip last time. Never comfortable.

[Canarsie]

:4: First Dude the horse has tons of heart maybe the blinkers will do it.

[rastajenk]

I went with a tri part wheel:
:1: :2: :4: with
:1: :2: :4: with
:1: :2: :3: :4: :5:

$Eighteen purchase of some rooting interest.

[Tom]

Looks on paper to be a weak race of un-appealing horses with limited capabilities. One decent Beyer and the next could be running at FL. :sleeping:

I'll take A Little Warm, because his trainers knows the "secret" of getting wins out of horses.

Not much excitement to this years excuse of the mid summer classic.

[WinterTriangle]

Travers --- I'd play longshots w/p and that would be #3 and #8. History doesn't favor Super Saver to win, and Trappe Shot and A Little Warm will be total chalk?
I would definitely give Ice Box (#6) a chance to hit the board here and he will have terrific odds.

Probably a watch only race for me

[joanied]

Some of the fun was lost when Baffert decided not to ship in Lucky...but Zito always makes a big race interesting and I still have First Dude to watch...I know that colt has a win coming...he's always right there, and with blinkers on, this may be the one!!

First Dude
Ice Box
A Little Warm
Trappe Shot

be interesting to see how Admiral Alex runs...ya never know:eek:

Good luck :ThmbUp: to everyone...have a great :jump: weekend!!

[PaceAdvantage]

:2: Trappe Shot
:8: Fly Down
:4: First Dude
:7: Afleet Express

[Stevie Belmont]

Tough Travers this year. Miner's Reserve will go out, and that means anyone on the front end will have to deal with it, that means First Dude should have company. Not making a pick her, but Nick Zito holds a good hand. I expect both Ice Box and Fly Down to make a solid last bid. Trappe Shot should run well. Looking for value though, and he could go off the favorite.

The 5 I will use at this point are Trappe Shot, Ice Box, Fly Down, Afleet Express and Friend or Foe.

A Little Warm has never done anything wrong. I am looking for value here. Number dudes will tell you he is coming off twin tops. And they might not not dig that.

[Charlie D]

:8: Fly Down :7: Afleet Express
:5: A little Warm

[redshift1]

Track not playing to closers today

[nijinski]

Fly Down
Friend Or Foe
Super Saver

[46zilzal]

The early biased course today gives hope for earlier ones to be around in the big race.....so I suggest that :1: Miner`s Reserve may hand around for part of it here. as it appears this one can outlast First Dude. :5: A Little Warm has the best of both worlds being close and being able to come later. :7: Afleet Express :9: Friend or Foe and very very late :2: Trappe Shot round out the late movers, but the track is favoring earlier ones today.

[ArlJim78]

:5: A Little Warm
:7: Afleet Express
:2: Trappe Shot
:1: Miners Reserve

[Stevie Belmont]

Speed Continues To Rock the Spa--Rightly So All The Way In The Ballerina

[bane]

First Dude is a heck of a horse, that horse fights for every inch! Still think the distance and the pace will knock him out, keep the horse 1 1/8 and he will rule.

[Robert Goren]

I like Super Saver. The way things are going todays you can toss him.

[bisket]

2$ tri box
:2: :7: :8:
2$ ex box
:2: :7: :8:
super saver?
:2: :4: :5: :7: :8:

[PaceAdvantage]

There is a ton of speed in the Travers...which will prevail? The track, or the race dynamic? Race dynamic says an off-the-pace horse should win...

[Stevie Belmont]

Speed bias continues to roll on. It's a head bender the race, but Miner's Reserve is a shocking 48/1! Have to use this one.

[46zilzal]

Imagine the quality that this track has witnessed.

Holy Bull Easy Goer Chief's Crown, Runaway Groom, Alydar Point Given, Thunder Gulch, Honest Pleasure, Damascus, Buckpasser.
Sword Dancer, Gallant Man, Man O'War , Granville and my favorite Jim Dandy

[PaceAdvantage]

:2: Trappe Shot
:8: Fly Down
:4: First Dude
:7: Afleet Express

Gonna throw the big ol' speed longshot :1: Miner's Reserve into the mix... definitely a win bet on this one is required...

I still think :2: Trappe Shot has the best mix of speed and stamina and should win this race.

[46zilzal]

Gonna throw the big ol' speed longshot :1: Miner's Reserve into the mix... definitely a win bet on this one is required...

I still think :2: Trappe Shot has the best mix of speed and stamina and should win this race.
if the :2: wins this, that one will have to overcome some big obstacles of late late pace and traffic troubles....He is almost in the Silky Sullivan, Aldebaran area of energy distribution

[PaceAdvantage]

if the :2: wins this, that one will have to overcome some big obstacles of late late pace and traffic troubles....He is almost in the Silky Sullivan, Aldebaran area of energy distributionHe shouldn't be sitting any worse than 5th early on....and a close 5th that will be....no Silky Sullivan here...

[Beachbabe]

I've liked Trappe Shot since I saw him win at Gulfstream.

I'm making a decent win bet on him & playing him on top in exactas & tris:

:2: over the :1: , :5: , :8:
in both exactas & tris.

[Robert Fischer]

Afleet Express.:ThmbUp:

[bisket]

There is a ton of speed in the Travers...which will prevail? The track, or the race dynamic? Race dynamic says an off-the-pace horse should win...
this would be why i have dude and warm in the super. under normal conditions i wouldn't have included them.

[Stillriledup]

Here's what you play:

10 cent Supers:

2578 with ALL with ALL with 6, 8, 10

ALL with 2578 with ALL with 6, 8 10.

1 dollar tri's:

25678 with ALL with 6 8 10
ALL with 25678 with 6 8 10

Good Luck.

[Robert Fischer]

blue horseshoe lo ves Afleet Express

[MickJ26]

Wow, with two minutes to post and a million dollars in the win pool, Trappe Shot is an amazing 4-1 favourite.
My heart says Admiral Alex and my head says A Little Warm.
Let's see if Kent saves ground with the post position relief and turns him loose once the rail opens up in the stretch.

[Robert Fischer]

booooooo yahhhhhhhh



BOOOOOMMMMM SHAKA~LAKKA

[46zilzal]

First Dude is a heck of a horse, that horse fights for every inch! Still think the distance and the pace will knock him out, keep the horse 1 1/8 and he will rule.
run was impressive however short, but IMPRESSIVE just like Pimlico

[Charlie D]

It was worth the wait in my humble opinion- cracking finish.


More of the same please owners and trainers please.

[Beachbabe]

Here's what you play:

10 cent Supers:

2578 with ALL with ALL with 6, 8, 10

ALL with 2578 with ALL with 6, 8 10.

1 dollar tri's:

25678 with ALL with 6 8 10
ALL with 25678 with 6 8 10

Good Luck.


Nice call on the super

[Tom]

Imagine the quality that this track has witnessed.

Holy Bull Easy Goer Chief's Crown, Runaway Groom, Alydar Point Given, Thunder Gulch, Honest Pleasure, Damascus, Buckpasser.
Sword Dancer, Gallant Man, Man O'War , Granville and my favorite Jim Dandy

And it ain't seeing anything close to quality today!
A bad bunch taking turns.

The results scream mediocrity.

[Stillriledup]

Nice call on the super

Thanks, Both supers won. You hit that for 20 cents if you bet what i listed. :jump:

[PaceAdvantage]

if the :2: wins this, that one will have to overcome some big obstacles of late late pace and traffic troubles....He is almost in the Silky Sullivan, Aldebaran area of energy distributionWell, I may have lost the race, but at least I got to see how wrong you were with that insane "Silky Sullivan" comment

[Stillriledup]

The cost of those super wagers?


Probably less than the 700+ that they paid.

[46zilzal]

Well, I may have lost the race, but at least I got to see how wrong you were with that insane "Silky Sullivan" comment
energy distribution, for the gazinllionth time, is NOT position and the energy distribution said NOTHING

[MickJ26]

There was almost $1.5 million in the pick four pool, well exceeding the guarantee. Four very logical winners paid $422. for a buck. Nothing wrong with that.

[Stevie Belmont]

That's the zacter if you played it. I got off my original plays. I would have had it as well. Darn it!

:8: Fly Down :7: Afleet Express
:5: A little Warm

[Tom]

energy distribution, for the gazinllionth time, is NOT position and the energy distribution said NOTHING

They why did you mention traffic? :rolleyes:

[Robert Fischer]

good stuff

[Stillriledup]

good stuff


Thanks. I don't ever give out Saratoga bets i usually leave that to the people who follow the circuit closer than i do, but once in a while, something just strikes your fancy, you know?

:jump:

[WinterTriangle]

Nice super SRU. Even for 10 cents it paid awfully well. congrats on the Exactas Pace and Charlie, Bisket, et. al.


My #8 losing by what....a 1/2 nostril, boy that was a tough beat! Fly Down did awfully good, considering a closer and he was way way back.

[Stevie Belmont]

Nice!

Nice call on the super

[PaceAdvantage]

energy distribution, for the gazinllionth time, is NOT position and the energy distribution said NOTHINGDude, you were dead wrong about Trappe Shot's energy distribution...and I was dead right...it's ok...you can admit it...there was no traffic...there was no Silky Sullivan...he sat fourth the whole time early on...

He was third after a quarter in 23.42
He was fourth after a half in 47.25
He was fourth after six panels in 111.39

Exactly like I said...no worse than 5th...you were wrong...his energy distribution in this race was not skewed late and the results prove that.

Aldebaran my ass...

[David-LV]

Thanks, Both supers won. You hit that for 20 cents if you bet what i listed. :jump:

Your total investment in the race was $349.20 with a return of $1484.40. Very Nice.

Excellent structuring of your tickets, I learned something today from you about building tickets even thou I got beat in this race, but I hit the pick 4 for a bean and it sort of got me even at this stage of the day.

Thank You,

___________
David-LV

[David-LV]

Dude, you were dead wrong about Trappe Shot's energy distribution...and I was dead right...it's ok...you can admit it...there was no traffic...there was no Silky Sullivan...he sat fourth the whole time early on...

He was third after a quarter in 23.42
He was fourth after a half in 47.25
He was fourth after six panels in 111.39

Exactly like I said...no worse than 5th...you were wrong...his energy distribution in this race was not skewed late and the results prove that.

Aldebaran my ass...

This race may have been one furlong to long for Trappe Shot, I thought he ran a perfect race right up to the 1/8 pole, but then he was on empty.

Next time he goes at 9 furlongs and under I will be there like white on rice.

__________
David-LV

[speed]

if the :2: wins this, that one will have to overcome some big obstacles of late late pace and traffic troubles....He is almost in the Silky Sullivan, Aldebaran area of energy distribution
I had to take 46 off ignore for a moment to read a few of these comments.

Silky Sullivan was just seen turning over in his grave.

[PaceAdvantage]

I had to take 46 off ignore for a moment to read a few of these comments.

Silky Sullivan was just seen turning over in his grave.But...but...he's talking about energy distribution, not POSITIONAL... :lol:

He'll tell us all we have no clue what he is talking about...then again, I have been a student of Sartin for 20+ years...

So tell us 46, I guess by posting what you did, you meant to say that Trappe Shot would have a very easy trip tracking the early pace in 3rd and 4th? Is that what you meant to say?

[joanied]

Congrats :ThmbUp: to everyone who did good on their wagers...man, what a heartbreaker for Zito...and I hope Ice Box is OK...as he was pulled up...anyone has news on that?
Great stretch run, for sure...as for my picks...DUH:bang: , at least First Dude was right there, just like always...starting to remind me of Hard Spun...maybe they need to shorten that big boy up!!


I didn't look yet for a thread...but the Pacific Classic was a good one...of course I'm thrilled Richard's Kid won...again:jump: ...I posted someplace about wanting him to win...so, I'm a happy camper:)

(What happened to Informed Decision...maybe time to retire that mare...I was bummed)

[Stevie Belmont]

I totally blew this one. I changed the exactas I had with Fly Down and Afleet Express.

I never used Ice Box after seeing the bias.


Tough Travers this year. Miner's Reserve will go out, and that means anyone on the front end will have to deal with it, that means First Dude should have company. Not making a pick her, but Nick Zito holds a good hand. I expect both Ice Box and Fly Down to make a solid last bid. Trappe Shot should run well. Looking for value though, and he could go off the favorite.

The 5 I will use at this point are Trappe Shot, Ice Box, Fly Down, Afleet Express and Friend or Foe.

A Little Warm has never done anything wrong. I am looking for value here. Number dudes will tell you he is coming off twin tops. And they might not not dig that.

[Stillriledup]

Your total investment in the race was $349.20 with a return of $1484.40. Very Nice.

Excellent structuring of your tickets, I learned something today from you about building tickets even thou I got beat in this race, but I hit the pick 4 for a bean and it sort of got me even at this stage of the day.

Thank You,

___________
David-LV

I appreciate that, you're welcome.

You can build tickets like this.

Divide the race up into 4 sections.

1) Singles
2) Alls
3) small packets (2 or 3 runners)
4) Larger packets (4 or 5 runners)

Work it like this.

Pick out a single and place him in a certain spot. For example, the 10 horse who finished 4th was over 40-1. Even though that horse had a shot to win, he was more likely to finish 3rd/4th than he was to win or finish 2nd. You can still make a nice score by getting him in the bottom of the belly.

I made a larger pack (because of the toughness of the race), used an ALL because even the longest odds horses were good and structured it to get that longshot to finish 4th. (and then 3rd in the tri)

If i went All w ALL w ALL w 10 that's too expensive. So, i took 4 horses and used them in the top 2 spots with the attitude that i just need one 'contender' to finish either 1st or 2nd.

You can use ALL's in certain spots, but you need SOME kind of opinion somewhere else because like i said three alls and a horse for 4th is too pricey.

Depends on your bankroll for a particular race in how many runners you want to use in your packet.

[Bullet Plane]

Stillriledup,

Good job with the exotic structure in this race.

[MNslappy]

How much did the bump at the start affect Trappe Shot's overall race?

[Tom]

and I hope Ice Box is OK...as he was pulled up...anyone has news on that?

Like a moron, I bet Ice Box by mistake....I thought A Little Warm was the 6.:bang:

So, I watched him and rooted...but it looked like he could not run straight in the stretch - kept veering in and bumped a horse twice...if that was him. Very erratic.

[Richard]

I'm pleased to say I had Afleet Express picked out Friday night.Used The old standby,the RTPC coupled with Taulbot's "V" for Victory angle which I detected in AE's Jim Dandy running line.In my initial handicapping,AE's raw score was only three points less than that of A Little Warm(the overall high scorer).Angle Percentage Points-wise,AE was definitely short of ALW(25 to 32).Nonetheless,in examining the JD running lines of both horses,AE ran much faster in the stretch than ALW.Translating this fact from 1-1/8m to 1-1/4m I felt this could contribute to the difference.I think I was more right than wrong,but not by much as it turned out.Ours can be a game of nostrils.

[redshift1]

I may be wrong but, I think the 6 is a little to slow for these.

You rarely get a very fast pace at 1 1/4 mile distance at Saratoga.

Good Luck,


_________
David-LV

You're right he was amazingly slow his two derby efforts were visually impressive but turned out to be mediocre and the apparent result of pace or track bias.

[rastajenk]

My selections were evenly distributed throughout the lower half of the chart. :ThmbDown:

[joanied]

Like a moron, I bet Ice Box by mistake....I thought A Little Warm was the 6.:bang:

So, I watched him and rooted...but it looked like he could not run straight in the stretch - kept veering in and bumped a horse twice...if that was him. Very erratic.

AArrggghhh, Tom...bad boo-boo there...I had him picked for the place, figured the horse would redeem himself...gotta watch a replay and take a look at him, and as I said, hope he's OK...Zito cannot have slept well last night, missing the win by a hair and having Ice Box run so strange...I really thought my pick, First Dude, was in a great spot and he'd really run well in the stretch...maybe the change to blinkers didn't do him any good at all...and maybe they need to shorten him up a little...he sure is a tryin' SOB...just can't seem to get there...another Musket Man:faint:

[Robert Fischer]

and he lo ves 7-1

blue horseshoe lo ves Afleet Express

[DeanT]

and he lo ves 7-1

We've all hit horses over 7-1 before, but yours and Bane's picks here is nothing short of impressive. He was 7-1, but he was fifth choice, in one of the most interesting and chaotic races we have seen in a long while. What a great betting race.

Great job on the pick!

[46zilzal]

How is one to make a point if you delete the data that substantiates that point?

[cj]

How is one to make a point if you delete the data that substantiates that point?

I delete them because you never explain the graphs. They aren't needed, just say it in English.

[46zilzal]

I delete them because you never explain the graphs. They aren't needed, just say it in English.
Graph says early late balance: early on one side, late on the other...How complex is that?

Suggested that Trappe was later than most, graph showed same thing more balanced to the late....and, as predicted, here and other places, that he would be nowhere unless the entire pace collapsed and on yesterday's track that wasn't likely

[cj]

Graph says early late balance: early on one side, late on the other...How complex is that?

Suggested that Trappe was later than most, graph showed same thing more balanced to the late....

He certainly did not run that way on Saturday, even after a troubled start.

[PaceAdvantage]

He certainly did not run that way on Saturday, even after a troubled start.Oh, you don't get it cj...it's not POSITIONAL... :lol:

[46zilzal]

Oh, you don't get it cj...it's not POSITIONAL... :lol:
No it is not and ANY student of Energy would know

[cj]

Oh, you don't get it cj...it's not POSITIONAL... :lol:

I know you're joking, even without the emoticon, but lets look at this reasonably. Lets clear one thing up right away. Trappe Shot did not run "Late" on Saturday using position or energy distribution, he was decidedly early.

That said, the horse liked to run up near the front, just a few lengths back, while going slowly. However, that does not usually translate to being able to drop back in a race with a faster pace and do the same thing. Notice despite the faster pace, the horse still assumed his preferred POSITION. That is what really happens, not what some graph says is going to happen energy wise.

Horses with his style that win are tough to judge. Sometimes a quick pace allows them to run to full potential, other times it exposes them. I thought the horse would run better, but luckily the odds were too low to bet. His trip wasn't great on that track by any means, but he was still pretty disappointing.

I stand by my belief that it is both position and how a horse distributes it energy that are important. Neither in isolation is as strong as both together.

[46zilzal]

I

I stand by my belief that it is both position and how a horse distributes it energy that are important. Neither in isolation is as strong as both together.
About 10% are animals that are PFR's (positional front runners no matter the pace) the rest distribute energy in response to the pressure of the pace they are up against.......So there are some locked into positional status but they are in the minority

[cj]

About 10% are animals that are PFR's (positional front runners no matter the pace) the rest distribute energy in response to the pressure of the pace they are up against.......So there are some locked into positional status but they are in the minority

So you admit you were wrong about Trappe Shot, that he is one of the 10%. Very good.

I disagree with that 10% number by a long shot, but at least we're getting somewhere.

I can find many more horses that win with wildly varying energy distributions than I can find horses that win with wildly varying positional styles...it isn't even close. Explain Discreetly Mine's last race, the Amsterdam, and the King's Bishop yesterday if you don't mind.

[46zilzal]

So you admit you were wrong about Trappe Shot, that he is one of the 10%. Very good.


No that one is not even close...a good example, actually the one that changed my mind about this class of horse was Barbaro, who could not be classified on a racing style and like Nashua (about which Sunny Jim Fitzsimmons always said "He runs just enough to stay up with crowd no matter the pace.")

The King's Bishop horse, like many a good one, adapts to the pace by compensating its style......The style of its last 10

[cj]

No that one is not even close...a good example, actually the one that changed my mind about this class of horse was Barbaro, who could not be classified on a racing style and like Nashua (about which Sunny Jim Fitzsimmons always said "He runs just enough to stay up with crowd no matter the pace.")

Translation, anyone? Way to duck.

[46zilzal]

Translation, anyone? Way to duck.
The horse in question (King Bishop) only had LATER, i.e. sustained to sustained/presser, versus the slower early pace of a few routes, and usually runs earlier in sprints (hardly a surprise that is the standard of most race tracks)

When there is NO early pace pressure (War Emblem's Illinois Derby was an example) the horse alone on the lead usually slows down allowing for a more evenly distributed energy so he,in fact, was on the lead all the way and finished up with better energy and in fact ran in a LATE style, which gave the hint that 10 furlongs, if not too much pressure was around, was in that one's grasp.

POSITION is dependent on the relative pace pressures of the field whereas the running style of the horse is uniquely REACTIVE to that pressure.....The field pace pressure is only evaluated once the combined effect of the other horses is matched up.

In the case of Barbaro, no matter the pace pressure, the colt stayed up front, slow or fast. a POSTIONAL front runner

[cj]

The winner of the King's Bishop ran two RADICALLY different races in regards to energy distribution, but quite similar positionally. He won both. I guess he is part of the 10% too.

[46zilzal]

The winner of the King's Bishop ran two RADICALLY different races in regards to energy distribution, but quite similar positionally. He won both. I guess he is part of the 10% too.
way to win any arguement just delete all my data

the sustained races were routes and of course, garden on horse adapt far better than any others ...that is one of the reasons they are stakes horses

Since all of these numbers are percentage based, a proportion evaluation of fractional velocity, the actual times of the fractions are not part of the evaluation of that proportion...Many times horses of slower final times beat faster ones since the energy profile is ore like the track profile

[cj]

way to win any arguement just delete all my data

the sustained races were routes

WE DON'T USE YOUR PROGRAM. WE DON'T KNOW HOW TO READ IT. GET IT?

So, post for me how the winner of the King's Bishop distributed his energy yesterday, and how he did it in the Amsterdam in his last start? There is zero chance they are remotely close.

[46zilzal]

Kings Bishop winner's 1st 2nd 9th and 10th lines in 7 furlong races are all presser

yesterday's race was NOT available before it ran so in handicapping that race, that information was wholly irrelevant.

[cj]

Kings Bishop winner's 1st 2nd 9th and 10th lines in 7 furlong races are all presser

yesterday's race was NOT available before it ran so in handicapping that race, that information was wholly irrelevant.

That isn't what I asked. It is available now. His last race was 6.5, and I know he ran as a presser. He certainly distributed his energy much differently yesterday. Do you have the numbers, or do you need your program to calculate them? I can do it for you if you like.

[Saratoga_Mike]

That isn't what I asked. It is available now. His last race was 6.5, and I know he ran as a presser. He certainly distributed his energy much differently yesterday. Do you have the numbers, or do you need your program to calculate them? I can do it for you if you like.

CJ, has he ever conceded a point to you?

[46zilzal]

CJ, has he ever conceded a point to you?
this is an OLD OLD argument which I have stated ad nauseum, as it is akin to his looking at racing in English and my looking at in in Japanese..Completely different perspectives so why should I concede a thing to something that is completly different>

[rastajenk]

Who would know? Zilzal has his own syntax, grammar, and vocabulary that requires a translator; nobody has stepped forward to take on the job.

[46zilzal]

That isn't what I asked. It is available now. His last race was 6.5, and I know he ran as a presser. He certainly distributed his energy much differently yesterday. Do you have the numbers, or do you need your program to calculate them? I can do it for you if you like.

Presser. big surprise as all the sprints have been presser

[46zilzal]

Who would know? Zilzal has his own syntax, grammar, and vocabulary that requires a translator; nobody has stepped forward to take on the job.
no...there are no advanced, not basic, Sartinites in the mix here

[cj]

Who would know? Zilzal has his own syntax, grammar, and vocabulary that requires a translator; nobody has stepped forward to take on the job.

It kills him that I understand his language, though I disagree with much of it. He'll bob and weave now. He probably can't even do the energy calculations I requested.

[cj]

Presser. big surprise as all the sprints have been presser

Numbers, not words. He was very clearly early yesterday.

[Saratoga_Mike]

Numbers, not words. He was very clearly early yesterday.

As an advanced Sartinite, he's clearly holding back. :rolleyes:

[46zilzal]

Numbers, not words. He was very clearly early yesterday.
probably...as both the track bias and being a stakes horse allows the best to become...But that remains after the fact. One would have only known the bias was there yesterday.

[cj]

As an advanced Sartinite, he's clearly holding back. :rolleyes:

I'm pretty convinced now he can't do the math.

[46zilzal]

I'm pretty convinced now he can't do the math.
algorithms do the math from the data

[cj]

algorithms do the math from the data

See, I knew it!

[Saratoga_Mike]

See, I knew it!

You've identified the good doctor's one weakness: math. And I thought he was perfect.

[46zilzal]

You've identified the good doctor's one weakness: math. And I thought he was perfect.

Hardly...I went all the way through calculus. physics, etc


having a computer the calculations are accurate,,,,It is our philosophy behind them that is different....NOT WRONG different

[Saratoga_Mike]

Hardly...I went all the way through calculus. physics, etc


having a computer the calculations are accurate,,,,It is our philosophy behind them that is different....NOT WRONG different

So you are perfect after all. Philosophy won't change the number, so please post the calculation. Thanks.

[46zilzal]

So you are perfect after all. Philosophy won't change the number, so please post the calculation. Thanks.
every time I put up anything explanatory , his nibs removes it.....

[Saratoga_Mike]

every time I put up anything explanatory , his nibs removes it.....

If he agrees not to remove your calculation, will you post it? I'd honestly like to see your calculation. I've only read one book on Sartin, and I can't remember even remotely how the numbers were derived.

[cj]

I only remove the graphs because they mean nothing to 99% or more of the posters.

[46zilzal]

If he agrees not to remove your calculation, will you post it? I'd honestly like to see your calculation. I've only read one book on Sartin, and I can't remember even remotely how the numbers were derived.
The algorithms are proprietary. The early late balance is defined as the WEIGHTED (subject to track variant) difference between the 2nd call velocity and final fraction velocity. Track standards for distance and surface vary from track to track but pressers at 7 furlongs are usually around 0 to +4

Racing STYLE is simply a matter of percent median. Sum or the velocities of F1 and F2 divided by the sum of fractions 1 2 3. early 69% pressers in the range of 68, sustained in the range of 67 and late 66.

Rather than get sore finger tips from all of the data entry, one uses set mathematical calculations to get the results.

Trappe Shot's last 6 were Sustained, Late, Late, s/p, Sustained, Sustained.

the two late ones were the fastest total ones

Nothing mysterious as these two complement on another.

[cj]

The algorithms are proprietary. The early late balance is defined as the WEIGHTED (subject to track variant) difference between the 2nd call velocity and final fraction velocity. Track standards for distance and surface vary from track to track but pressers at 7 furlongs are usually around 0 to +4

Racing STYLE is simply a matter of percent median. Sum or the velocities of F1 and F2 divided by the sum of fractions 1 2 3. early 69% pressers in the range of 68, sustained in the range of 67 and late 66.

Rather than get sore finger tips from all of the data entry, one uses set mathematical calculations to get the results

Nothing mysterious as these two complement on another.

I know all this. All I'm asking is to explain a few horses, the winner of the King's Bishop, Discreetly Mine, and Trappe Shot using previous races compared to the races yesterday.

All we hear from you is that style is about energy distribution, not position, yet both of the above ran radically different energy wise yesterday while maintaining similar early position to previous races. One won and one lost. I'm saying you need them both to handicap, at least successfully.

[46zilzal]

whatever I post you will either delete of disagree with.....Like I have said over and over....So I will keep getting my winners and you can too

[cj]

whatever I post you will either delete of disagree with.....Like I have said over and over....So I will keep getting my winners and you can too

Well, it took longer than I thought for you to run away. We'll get there some day.

46 can say what he likes, but in real life horses are much more likely to run to the same positional style than some human manufactured energy distribution range. The key is to determine if that preferred position is likely to be a good or bad place in today's race.

[46zilzal]

Well, it took longer than I thought for you to run away. We'll get there some day.

46 can say what he likes, but in real life horses are much more likely to run to the same positional style than some human manufactured energy distribution range. The key is to determine if that preferred position is likely to be a good or bad place in today's race.
that is not true as I have observed for over 40 years. POSITION depends upon pace: if it is very fast the horse with the same velocity is 5th, if it is very slow that same velocity is way out front.

There are the positional front runners but they are in the minority

[cj]

that is not true as I have observed for over 40 years. POSITION depends upon pace: if it is very fast the same velocity is 5th, if it is very slow the same velocity is way out front.

So, back again, how do you explain the two horses from yesterday?

[Tom]

About 10% are animals that are PFR's (positional front runners no matter the pace) the rest distribute energy in response to the pressure of the pace they are up against.......So there are some locked into positional status but they are in the minority

Nonsense.
How the hell does the horse know what the race will shape up to be.
It has two choices early one - run positionally or run the SAME VELOCITY it always does. Percentages do not come into play until you finish the race.

Did TS run the same early pace he normally does yesterday?