Baffert hates surface..

[senortout]

Baffert has remained and still running on hated surface...

He's got one in here about to go off in the first at DMar...For the Memories...the owners paid nearly a third of a mil for this one and yet he's starting on the hated surface....you can't have your cake and eat it too, or can you?

just wonderin'

ps I like her chances!

[cj]

Don't you think the owners have some say in the matter?

[andymays]

I'll predict Baffers filly opens up 5 near the top of the stretch and gets nailed by the #6 at the wire. That should piss Baffert off.

By the way I agree with him on synthetic surfaces.

[andymays]

How about Flores fighting for that one? I like that. :ThmbUp:

[senortout]

She hung like my old corduroys.

Yes, the owners, that must be part of the reason at least!

[andymays]

She hung like my old corduroys.

Yes, the owners, that must be part of the reason at least!
The #8 wins the second by several lengths.

[senortout]

be chasing the 4 but that ones lacking a finish. Hard to fault the one, other than having 3 chances to put it over the top. Odds are stressfully low on the one. I truly think Pedroza switch can get her thru inside with a groundsaving trip, and that may be the main reason for the change today. We'll see.

[andymays]

be chasing the 4 but that ones lacking a finish. Hard to fault the one, other than having 3 chances to put it over the top. Odds are stressfully low on the one. I truly think Pedroza switch can get her thru inside with a groundsaving trip, and that may be the main reason for the change today. We'll see.

I'm pretty sure they gave the #4 instructions to take back and make a run from mid pack.

[andymays]

I'm pretty sure they gave the #4 instructions to take back and make a run from mid pack.

I said that because Roger Stein was pissed the last time the #4 ran and said he instructed the jock to take back and he didn't. I'm sure he's pissed again.

[senortout]

good call on the eight!.....however....how dead is the rail? thats two straight with nothing left.....favored and well bet and all. I can't read the form today.

[andymays]

good call on the eight!.....however....how dead is the rail? thats two straight with nothing left.....favored and well bet and all. I can't read the form today.

The #8 was routing against better and stayed in touch with the field for a while. She had a fitness edge. She looked like a winner the whole way. This field was as weak as it gets on this circuit.

[andymays]

The rails are out 14 feet today on the turf course. That generally helps horses running near the lead. I need #1, #2, and #6 for the P3.

I think the #1 sends to the lead and the #2 tracks.

[senortout]

quick, my notes on the upcoming..
1..authoritative ride last out...bit steep on the class hike angle
2..only a bit of improvement can get this one home
3..loses a skilled jockey, am trying to comprehend ramifications
4..has been on slight improve last few races
5..a tough class hike and no turf exp
6..may be slumming here and could be very live
7..can't use
8..a factor if loose on the lead

[andymays]

This is the kind of race where you have a pretty good idea about who the winner is into the first turn.

[senortout]

I dunno...the four and six benefit most from a quick pace, perhaps, uh oh I really don't like the way the six is loading

[andymays]

I needed the #1 bad. Big difference in the p3 price.

I screwed up here too.

ACCEPTED: 66913213864520 DMR #3 $1 Superfecta 1,​WT,2,6,​WT,2,4,5,6,​WT,2,4,5,6 none $ 12.00 - -
2 ACCEPTED: 80927613440839 DMR #3 $1 Trifecta 1,​WT,2,6,​WT,2,4,5,6 none $ 6.00 - -
3 ACCEPTED: 48709693249110 DMR #3 $1 Trifecta 1,​WT,2,6,​WT,2,4,5,6 none $ 6.00 -

[andymays]

P3's to the #9 in the fourth.

[senortout]

good on ya pick 3....I couldn't follow my own inclinations on the two as you can see. six did seem slightly out of sorts loading, my bad. Valley Cat one to watch on the next turf try, I believe. Outran my assessment, took class hike and beat one of my picks.

[andymays]

I really thought the #1 would go to the lead from the rail.

[senortout]

I should watch the replay...first it was the eight and then the 1 with the 2 following or not?

[andymays]

I should watch the replay...first it was the eight and then the 1 with the 2 following or not?

8 on the lead then the 2 and then the 1.

This race the #9 is kind of dead on the board. It looks like 8-5 to me.

[senortout]

Nine, continues class drops off 2 straight wins...liars poker?

[andymays]

Nine, continues class drops off 2 straight wins...liars poker?


They already got two wins out of him and they don't care if they lose him. If they win again that will be three wins in a row. If they claim him off a win they get another 8k. This is smart on the part of the owners and trainer.

[senortout]

Yes, agreed, realistically, very smart. Its playing the claiming game the right way, no doubt all of these have physical problems to some degree. The claiming rules have changed considerably over the years though.

I have settled on the twelve as my choice here.

[andymays]

The #9 was claimed out of the race.

Hit the p3 but the #10 ruined me in the tri and super. Tri's and supers paid huge. Shit. I bet the #10 last time too. :mad:


ACCEPTED: 31084911722916 DMR #4 $0.50 Superfecta 9,​WT,1,3,5,12,​WT,1,3,5,12,​WT,1,3,5,12 none $ 12.00 - -
5 ACCEPTED: 90279221892073 DMR #4 $0.50 Superfecta 9,​WT,1,3,5,12,​WT,1,3,5,12,​WT,1,3,5,12 none $ 12.00 - -
6 ACCEPTED: 98535860291000 DMR #4 $1 Trifecta 9,​WT,1,3,5,12,​WT,1,3,5,12 none $ 12.00

[senortout]

that 10 ruined a whole lotta bets.

But you keep those p3's rollin!

[andymays]

that 10 ruined a whole lotta bets.

But you keep those p3's rollin!

Singled the #6 here. I didn't like the card today so I rolled $10 P3's to the fifth race. The only race I spread a little was the third. All the others were singles. No prices but I didn't want to get hurt playing today.

After this race everything is wide open.

[senortout]

In the Zenyatta race, they ran so slow, trying to defeat her. Does a race like that flatter her all the more?....this six is an obvious choice, since Rinterval brought some credentials to the race herself.

I keyed the six over the 1, 5, 7 for exacta

Misread the fitness of Damini, who really stunk up the joint today. JMHO

[andymays]

In the Zenyatta race, they ran so slow, trying to defeat her. Does a race like that flatter her all the more?....this six is an obvious choice, since Rinterval brought some credentials to the race herself.

I keyed the six over the 1, 5, 7 for exacta

On many synthetic surfaces like Del Mar or Santa Anita a slower pace doesn't really hurt closers.

I spread in the next race but I would like to see the #3 win. I played it more times with the #3.

[andymays]

Time to look to Saturday. Good luck tomorrow senortout. Thanks for the exchange. :ThmbUp:

[senortout]

I kinda lost my way today. Hope you did well.

[andymays]

I kinda lost my way today. Hope you did well.

Nothing super but I did OK for the day. Tomorrow is the day to hit. Good Luck tomorrow.

[bks]

Baffert may hate the surface, but his horses don't seem to. Unreal.

Who on earth besides Joel Rosario saw El Brujo going to the lead in the POB?

[Stillriledup]

Baffert may hate the surface, but his horses don't seem to. Unreal.

Who on earth besides Joel Rosario saw El Brujo going to the lead in the POB?

The Bonde horse was 100 percent lone speed after the scratch of the Dollase runner, why he wasnt placed on the front end in this race is a bigger mystery than the Loch Ness Monster, Bigfoot or UFO's.

:eek:

[Robert Fischer]

In the Zenyatta race, they ran so slow, trying to defeat her. Does a race like that flatter her all the more?....


yes.

some of the paces in previous races that were in the normal pace range where unbelievably bad strategy. Maybe the absence of Martin Garcia helped return some thinking tactics?

slowing the pace, effectively shortens Zenyatta's margin for error. It doesn't make the others better than her but it gives her a smaller window in which to fire. It also increases the risk of two additional longshot occurances = First that traffic will be Zenyatta's downfall(traffic is more "deadly" with a smaller margin for error), = second that someone else will run a huge race on the lead(they would need to have strengths that were accentuated by the forward running style, and have a perfectly timed ride, "leaving" at the right time).

the clement hirsch field was allowance quality, so we are talking about strategy to even out a huge disparity, not things that truly handicap out equal opportunity.