All Beyer's equal ?

[MMM59]

Just wondering what others think. Do you view an 88 Beyer earned on the front end in wire to wire fashion the same as a deep closing 88 Beyer who worked his way through or around other horses. I prefer early speed horses, but the horses with an equal but " Closing" Beyer seem better to me. What do you think ?

[cj]

Just wondering what others think. Do you view an 88 Beyer earned on the front end in wire to wire fashion the same as a deep closing 88 Beyer who worked his way through or around other horses. I prefer early speed horses, but the horses with an equal but " Closing" Beyer seem better to me. What do you think ?

It all depends on the setup. If a race is run with a 98 pace, and three horses battling up front, and one of the front runners and the closer photo in an 88 Beyer, which ran better?

How about the same scenario, but a 78 pace alone on the lead? Now which ran better?

[46zilzal]

Pace can make them very UNEQUAL depending upon the pace pressures of the fields they meet. They don't work in isolation.

[cj]

Is there an echo in here?

[DeanT]

Just wondering what others think. Do you view an 88 Beyer earned on the front end in wire to wire fashion the same as a deep closing 88 Beyer who worked his way through or around other horses. I prefer early speed horses, but the horses with an equal but " Closing" Beyer seem better to me. What do you think ?

You make your best guess next time.

Street Sense got a nice Beyer for winning the Derby. Hard Spun got a lower one, and Curlin's was lower than that.

Hard Spun's was earned with a horrid 22, 46. Curlin's was earned wide, and SS's was earned with one of the luckiest trips since Unbridled. We might conclude HS was the fastest horse of the three, but it aint the way it played out.

[speed]

Is there an echo in here?
Not if using the ignore feature. :)

[harness2008]

Is there an echo in here?

I don't hear one I don't hear one

[Overlay]

All individual Beyers aren't equal, nor should they be used as a stand-alone criterion. But there are quantitative measures that treat Beyers equally (within broad categories of surface and distance), and that show a good cumulative reliability in predicting the winning chances of horses. It all depends on how much time you have, and how far down in the weeds you want to get, as far as the marginal value of qualitatively/subjectively judging the worth and meaning of Beyers from one race to another.

[Robert Goren]

If you make your own daily variants for a while, you discover bunch of things that cause you to question a race's numbers. The one thing that we tend to to forget is that on any given day, you/they are working with a very small sample from which you/they are making your number. Any statistician worth his salt would consider it madness to draw conclusions from the small samples that figure makers use to create numbers that almost become the word of God to many handicappers.

[cj]

If you make your own daily variants for a while, you discover bunch of things that cause you to question a race's numbers. The one thing that we tend to to forget is that on any given day, you/they are working with a very small sample from which you/they are making your number. Any statistician worth his salt would consider it madness to draw conclusions from the small samples that figure makers use to create numbers that almost become the word of God to many handicappers.

I would tend to disagree with the small sample size. If you look beyond the winner, and ignore the horses that ran poorly, you have anywhere from 30 to 50 horses you can use to create a variant.

[Cratos]

If you make your own daily variants for a while, you discover bunch of things that cause you to question a race's numbers. The one thing that we tend to to forget is that on any given day, you/they are working with a very small sample from which you/they are making your number. Any statistician worth his salt would consider it madness to draw conclusions from the small samples that figure makers use to create numbers that almost become the word of God to many handicappers.

Well stated, but figure makers are not using the principles of statistical theory as much as they are applying their own methodology.

[thaskalos]

I would tend to disagree with the small sample size. If you look beyond the winner, and ignore the horses that ran poorly, you have anywhere from 30 to 50 horses you can use to create a variant.I know what you mean CJ...but when variant creation becomes such an "artistic" procedure, isn't its accuracy dependent more on the handicapping prowess of the figure maker, than on the horses themselves?

[Cratos]

Just wondering what others think. Do you view an 88 Beyer earned on the front end in wire to wire fashion the same as a deep closing 88 Beyer who worked his way through or around other horses. I prefer early speed horses, but the horses with an equal but " Closing" Beyer seem better to me. What do you think ?


Yes, all Beyers are equal, but the effort(s) to earn the Beyer is not always equal and that effort is many times overlooked.

[cj]

I know what you mean CJ...but when variant creation becomes such an "artistic" procedure, isn't its accuracy dependent more on the handicapping prowess of the figure maker, than on the horses themselves?

Well, that is certainly part of it, and I think a very important part. Those that try to eliminate the artistic part create very poor figures many times. Check out BRIS' top Speed Ratings each week some time. Apparently, No Hesitation was by far the fastest horse in North America last week winning the Canadian Derby at Northlands Park...sure he was.

[thaskalos]

Yes, all Beyers are equal, but the effort(s) to earn the Beyer is not always equal and that effort is many times overlooked.I think that the problem with handicapping, is the same as the problem with life itself.

We handicap a race in advance, but we can only really understand it, by reflecting "backwards" on it...when it's over.

[Robert Goren]

I would tend to disagree with the small sample size. If you look beyond the winner, and ignore the horses that ran poorly, you have anywhere from 30 to 50 horses you can use to create a variant.Even 30-50 is small size. But then most Daily variants aren't even using that size. It is not unusual to see only middle distance run on a card, so you using 3 maybe 4 horses for your sample. If you are making your own numbers you know that, but if you are using some else's number you don't. That being said, I used your numbers for a year and they are as good as they get. I quit using them only because I cut way back on my wagering for health reasons and I no longer bet enough justify the cost.

[cj]

Even 30-50 is small size. But then most Daily variants aren't even using that size. It is not unusual to see only middle distance run on a card, so you using 3 maybe 4 horses for your sample. If you are making your own numbers you know that, but if you are using some else's number you don't. That being said, I used your numbers for a year and they are as good as they get. I quit using them only because I cut way back on my wagering for health reasons and I no longer bet enough justify the cost.

I certainly agree it is not an easy task and definitely not perfect, but you have to work with the date you have.