The Horseplayers Early Pick 4 with 10% takeout! What if?

[andymays]

This went out this morning in on of my infamous emails to the big shots it California. Sometimes I don't know why they pay these people. When Horseplayers pick a loser they don't get paid. When Racing Executives pick a loser they still get paid.

Then again, I may be the dummy here (don't answer that ;) ).

Any opinions on the proposal?


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How Online Past Performances Affect Handle
Another Solution for California

The Horseplayers Early Pick 4 with 10% takeout

Every day more and more Horseplayers buy their past performances online. I’ve been using Formulator from the Daily Racing Form because they’re the best. One of the reasons I buy them online is that they have run up distances and turf rail positions. Traditional DRF past performances do not have them.

The traditional Form that I always bought at a liquor store or on track had the past performances for about five tracks. When Horseplayers buy the past performances online they have choices. Horseplayers can buy one card or ten cards. You can print one race from each card or a series of races like the Monmouth pick 5. I print out the Monmouth pick 5 (races six through ten) because they have 15% takeout on that bet. I have attached old past performances for the sixth race at Monmouth for 8-20 as an example.

When I download the Monmouth pick 5 and put in the bet I usually find myself making a couple of other bets at Monmouth. Why? Because I already paid for the past performances for the entire card.


How do you get Horseplayers to buy your past performances?

Getting Horseplayers who have a choice to download the California card should be a priority for the people who run California Racing. One way to get Horseplayers interested in the California card is to get them to play the early pick 4. The problem is that we normally have short fields out here, especially in the early races.

The solution for California would be to have “The Horseplayers Early Pick Four” with a 10% takeout. I would also make it a $1 or $2 bet. With the normal takeout and the short fields the bet isn’t that enticing. With a 10% takeout it becomes a very good bet.

We all know why this benefits the Horseplayer but here’s why it benefits California Racing. Again, when Horseplayers download the past performances for “The Horseplayers Early Pick Four” with a 10% takeout they are more likely to play the rest of the card. They’ve already paid for the past performances so you can be sure they will play the rest of the races. Handle will increase significantly. What’s wrong with that?

How about doing something smart in California instead of following the rest of the industry?

Thanks,

Andy

[InsideThePylons-MW]

Bad name.....won't work

How about naming it....

TOC "we must be recognized for our contribution of funding our sport" early P-4 10% takeout

CHRB "stop wasting our time we've already decided" early P-4 10% takeout

maybe it will work then

[elhelmete]

Nothing wrong with the specific idea, but I am not sure about drastically lowering takeout for specific wagers versus perhaps a more modest reduction on all wagers.

But given the kind of $$ that I'm supposed to believe populates the horizontal wager pools, this one should click.

And the time zone helps...

[andymays]

Nothing wrong with the specific idea, but I am not sure about drastically lowering takeout for specific wagers versus perhaps a more modest reduction on all wagers.

But given the kind of $$ that I'm supposed to believe populates the horizontal wager pools, this one should click.

And the time zone helps...

It gives people a another reason to download the pp's for SA, Hollywood, or Del Mar. Horseplayers have a reason to play short fields at 10% takeout. It also gets people to the track for the first race. In Southern California quite a few people just show up for the start of the pick 6 in races 3 or 4.

[InsideThePylons-MW]

Does anybody really want to support a 10% takeout P-4 with the hope that bettors will make bets on the other races/options with the new 2%-3% takeout raise possibly being implemented?

[andymays]

Does anybody really want to support a 10% takeout P-4 with the hope that bettors will make bets on the other races/options with the new 2%-3% takeout raise possibly being implemented?

If the bet takes off they won't be able to say nobody cares anymore. I'm trying to think of a creative way to get them to take the first step.

So far they are taking a beating for trying to raise the take. They feel the heat. The raise will go through but they may be willing to throw us a bone with the early pick four at 10%.

[InsideThePylons-MW]

If the bet takes off they won't be able to say nobody cares anymore. I'm trying to think of a creative way to get them to take the first step.

So far they are taking a beating for trying to raise the take. They feel the heat. The raise will go through but they may be willing to throw us a bone with the early pick four at 10%.

Fvck the bone.

Horseplayers are getting raped and you say it's OK if they use a condom?

What the hell is going on here?

Jeff on TVG was straight out asked "are you for or against the bill" and he had no answer.

Has everybody lost their mind?

[andymays]

Fvck the bone.

Horseplayers are getting raped and you say it's OK if they use a condom?

What the hell is going on here?

Jeff on TVG was straight out asked "are you for or against the bill" and he had no answer.

Has everybody lost their mind?

First of all I'm out there fighting as hard or harder than anyone to get something changed. What kind of bullshit comment is that? Second, I'm a HANA member but don't represent HANA in any way. I've been as critical as anyone when I think they're wrong on a certain issue. There are issues I agree with them on as well.

Jeff said he was for betting exchanges and against the takeout raise. That's what he said. Did I like the response? No, he should have been more forcefull.

What exactly is your solution?

[InsideThePylons-MW]

First of all I'm out there fighting as hard or harder than anyone to get something changed. What kind of bullshit comment is that? Second, I'm a HANA member but don't represent HANA in any way. I've been as critical as anyone when I think they're wrong on a certain issue. There are issues I agree with them on as well.

Jeff said he was for betting exchanges and against the takeout raise. That's what he said. Did I like the response? No, he should have been more forcefull.

What exactly is your solution?

We are all fighting.

We don't need a bone.

We don't need a reason to bet their product and then hopefully get extra handle on their non-10% takeout----extra 2%-3% takeout bets so that they can say "we told you idiot horseplayers that the takeout increase wouldn't affect handle"

That's my solution.....don't make it to where they can justify the takeout increase, keep it, and others possibly follow.

[andymays]

We are all fighting.

We don't need a bone.

We don't need a reason to bet their product and then hopefully get extra handle on their non-10% takeout----extra 2%-3% takeout bets so that they can say "we told you idiot horseplayers that the takeout increase wouldn't affect handle"

That's my solution.....don't make it to where they can justify the takeout increase, keep it, and others possibly follow.

What will they have to say if the early pick 4 handle goes up by 2-4 times?

Horseplayers don't have to play anything else if they don't want to. Take advantage of the 10% takeout bet and leave.

[andymays]

By the way Fravel (Del Mar) just got appointed to the Jockey Club. He isn't going anywhere but up. He's one of the most powerful racing executives in the country.

http://jockeyclub.com/mediaCenter.asp?story=451

That's the guy you have to convince to lower takeout.

[InsideThePylons-MW]

What will they have to say if the early pick 4 handle goes up by 2-4 times?

They will say that reduced takeout is OK on ONE reduced wager to get people in the door and that avg daily handle did not drop so the takeout increase is great for the track and horsemen. Horsemen should take note of this and possibly raise takeout in other jurisdictions.

Horseplayers don't have to play anything else if they don't want to. Take advantage of the 10% takeout bet and leave.

I know you know that won't happen. Some might leave but most will be induced to bet other races. Read your first post in this thread. I think that's the entire premise of it.

[InsideThePylons-MW]

By the way Fravel (Del Mar) just got appointed to the Jockey Club. He isn't going anywhere but up. He's one of the most powerful racing executives in the country.

http://jockeyclub.com/mediaCenter.asp?story=451

That's the guy you have to convince to lower takeout.

Fravel and Zetcher

Both 100% for raising takeout.

Why try to convince them....spend your energy elsewhere.

[andymays]

They will say that reduced takeout is OK on ONE reduced wager to get people in the door and that avg daily handle did not drop so the takeout increase is great for the track and horsemen. Horsemen should take note of this and possibly raise takeout in other jurisdictions.



I know you know that won't happen. Some might leave but most will be induced to bet other races. Read your first post in this thread. I think that's the entire premise of it.

They hold all the cards and always have because they know a boycott isn't going to happen.

Absolutely, I know most will play other races on the card. You have to give them a good reason to do something. It's a first step and there isn't any other way short of a boycott to get them to do something in the near future.

[andymays]

Fravel and Zetcher

Both 100% for raising takeout.

Why try to convince them....spend your energy elsewhere.

Yes, they are both on the wrong side of the issue as usual.

In my opinion Fravel is one of the strongest racing executives in the country and is strong nationally as well. Our positions are opposed to one another in most instances. Having said that he's been taking a lot of heat lately for his position on takeout and on synthetic surfaces and rightly so. He could be willing to take a shot with the 10% early pick 4 because Del Mar doesn't have an early pick 4.

[jballscalls]

This went out this morning in on of my infamous emails to the big shots it California. Sometimes I don't know why they pay these people. When Horseplayers pick a loser they don't get paid. When Racing Executives pick a loser they still get paid.



do you include this quote in your emails to them?

[andymays]

do you include this quote in your emails to them?

If you were on my list you would know the anwer to that question. ;)

Do you think he would make a comment like this if he never got a email?

http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/55369/race-surfaces-dominate-california-summit-talk

Excerpt:

“Why do handicappers hate us?” Fravel asked.
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Having said all that he's one of the few who has responded to my last two emails. Both were cordial and positive. Actions do speak louder than words though. ;)

[InsideThePylons-MW]

That's the guy you have to convince to lower takeout.

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=73048&highlight=increase

posts 15,16,17

[andymays]

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=73048&highlight=increase

posts 15,16,17

Yes, I remember all that. Tell me how to get these guys out of California racing? I don't think it can be done in the near future. The only way to get something done in incrementally. If you have any better ideas throw them out.

[Charlie D]

Horseplayers are getting raped and you say it's OK if they use a condom?





:lol:

very good line ITP

[DeanT]

It is kind of like we are in medieval times where we take blood.

The blood takers take a pint every day. But it is a bit too much and people cant make it every day because they have no energy to give blood, and people are avoiding giving blood all together because they need energy to live their lives.

The braintrust, to make up for the shortfall, raises the daily take on the others to 1.5 pints a day. But people get even sicker and words spreads throughout the land that they should hide from the blood takers, so the amount taken falls again.

Then someone has an idea that they should offer a promotion for 0.5 pints of blood (which people dont mind at all), and then somewhere later in the month they will take their 1.5 pints out of this new blood giver, without them knowing it.

Long story short - people who want more blood will try and get it at all costs, and I dont believe helping them achieve that is a very good policy.

Just my opinion on that, but I am not going to be playing anything in CA when the take goes up. Even if it is a $100 million dollar carryover, or a low take pick 3 or something.

[andymays]

Dean are you saying they're Vampires or Leeches or both? ;)

[DeanT]

I'm sure they are great guys. We'd probably hang out at the track and have some beers, and have a dandy time watching the races. But with most folks who raise takeout and think it means more money in the long run, I will sit back and watch my wallet.

It's of course not only them Andy, and it shows what a hill to climb with this stuff......

In Australia the head of racing there was at a conference. This past year in Australia, betting turnover went up 36% because they had less takeout. Revenue to the sport went up by 8%.

So, you'd think this guy would be happy, and you'd think horseplayers like me and you would be happy, because it showed that when you lower the takeout, more is bet, and more goes to purses, right? In addition, this validates what every economist says about wagering - i.e. it is "elastic".

Well nope, you'd be mistaken. He had serious trouble understanding elasticity, and told the crowd that this proves that wagering in not elastic, and that dropping it had no benefit to racing.

Even when you prove a concept right, they argue against the concept. it's a good time for that bang head emoticon over at the side, but I digress.


Twice – I honestly thought the first time that I must have misunderstood him – he said that the argument that gambling is an elastic product had been proved to be wrong by the following piece of evidence: turnover had gone up by 36% this year, but revenue had only gone up by 8%. Ergo, the product wasn’t elastic.

Now, I’m no economist. But surely anyone running a business needs to know that by “elasticity”, people mean the relationship between turnover and margin, and their combined effect on revenue. So, turnover of 100 on margin of 10% makes revenue of 10. If margin is cut to 5% and turnover increases to 200, revenue remains 10; and the product being sold is deemed to have perfect elasticity (or, to be strictly accurate, elasticity of -1).

[andymays]

I'm sure they are great guys. We'd probably hang out at the track and have some beers, and have a dandy time watching the races. But with most folks who raise takeout and think it means more money in the long run, I will sit back and watch my wallet.

It's of course not only them Andy, and it shows what a hill to climb with this stuff......

In Australia the head of racing there was at a conference. This past year in Australia, betting turnover went up 36% because they had less takeout. Revenue to the sport went up by 8%.

So, you'd think this guy would be happy, and you'd think horseplayers like me and you would be happy, because it showed that when you lower the takeout, more is bet, and more goes to purses, right? In addition, this validates what every economist says about wagering - i.e. it is "elastic".

Well nope, you'd be mistaken. He had serious trouble understanding elasticity, and told the crowd that this proves that wagering in not elastic, and that dropping it had no benefit to racing.

Even when you prove a concept right, they argue against the concept. it's a good time for that bang head emoticon over at the side, but I digress.

In a perfect world people would do something because it's the right thing to do.

We all know that doesn't work in the real world.

These guys do what's in their own interests and in the interest of the tracks they run. Right now they're doing what's in their short term interests. A guy like Fravel brings home the bacon for Del Mar and himself year after year. The truth is that Del Mar kicks butt from stuff besides horse racing like concerts. It's pretty hard to convince someone that has/is successful to take a different approach.

[DeanT]

I know.

But it is not hard to get some sort of clarification on things if you do not understand it. I did. I sent that link to a wagering economist with two phd's. The response was the following:

Hi Dean,

Ha, well this gave me my "chuckle for the day" - thanks for passing it along.

I agree - it's sad and frustrating.... And this is only one fundamental economic concept that racing executives fail to "get", but I digress.

If people with Phds are "having a chuckle" that you do not understand a simple concept, it cant be a good thing for our sport.

[andymays]

I know.

But it is not hard to get some sort of clarification on things if you do not understand it. I did. I sent that link to a wagering economist with two phd's. The response was the following:

Sooooooooo we have to sell lower takeout to them. They're not going to do it without a little push. ;)

The Horseplayers early pick 4 with a 10% take is a start. I'm sure they'll want 15% but that doesn't get it done with 5 or 6 horse fields. It's a "door buster" to get people to buy your brand.

[Charlie D]

Andy

Charles H and his buddies at NYRA have finally SEEN the Light. It's only a matter of time before someone turns people like Mr Fravel into the light.


Keep banging the drum bud.

[andymays]

Andy

Charles H and his buddies at NYRA have finally SEEN the Light. It's only a matter of time before someone turns people like Mr Fravel into the light.


Keep banging the drum bud.

Charles H has always known what he said the other day to be true. High takeout is an addiction that is not easily cured. He can say all he wants and I'm glad he did but getting it done is a totally different story.

[Charlie D]

Your probably right about him knowing. It would be interesting to hear him answer this question.

"Right Charles, you admit your overpricing, what are you going to try and do about it???"

Edit to add.


Maybe a HANA rep can ask him above on behalf of his customers.

[andymays]

Your probably right about him knowing. It would be interesting to hear him answer this question.

"Right Charles, you admit your overpricing, what are you going to try and do about it???"

He's probably powerless to change it.

[Charlie D]

He's probably powerless to change it.


Maybe, maybe not. However, i'm sure he gets listened to in the corridors of power by some.

[andymays]

Horseplayers disagree with California's plan to raise takeout on exotic bets

http://www.drf.com/news/horseplayers-disagree-californias-plan-raise-takeout-exotic-bets

Excerpt:

“We certainly hear them,” said Craig Fravel, the president of Del Mar, referring to horseplayers, “and we hope that if we can keep field sizes up, we can offer them some better opportunities.”

[cj]

10% would be great, but it won't matter much if the fields don't improve about tenfold in Cali.

[andymays]

10% would be great, but it won't matter much if the fields don't improve about tenfold in Cali.

That's why they have to make it 10%. 15% with short fields won't excite anyone. 10% makes it a decent bet.

[cj]

That's why they have to make it 10%. 15% with short fields won't excite anyone. 10% makes it a decent bet.

I wouldn't play it. The races are just too bad in the early P4 most days...every day actually in recent memory. Takeout is important, but it isn't everything.

[andymays]

I wouldn't play it. The races are just too bad in the early P4 most days...every day actually in recent memory. Takeout is important, but it isn't everything.


How about 0 takeout and a bonus on your winnings of 10%? ;) :D

[DeanT]

How about 0 takeout and a bonus on your winnings of 10%? ;) :D

Dont laugh, that is pretty much done - just not here.

There is a ceiling on takeout in some places overseas. You can only charge X%. If you charge more (ie have some super exotics at 25% takeout) you have to give it back to the customer.

One way they do that is with a zero takeout pick 4. Sometimes it grows to $3M in one pool.

http://www.racingandsports.com.au/racing/rsNewsArt.asp?NID=150404&story=TAB_Boost_For_Warrnambool_and_Wagga

[andymays]

Dont laugh, that is pretty much done - just not here.

There is a ceiling on takeout in some places overseas. You can only charge X%. If you charge more (ie have some super exotics at 25% takeout) you have to give it back to the customer.

One way they do that is with a zero takeout pick 4. Sometimes it grows to $3M in one pool.

http://www.racingandsports.com.au/racing/rsNewsArt.asp?NID=150404&story=TAB_Boost_For_Warrnambool_and_Wagga

Yes, I'll get right on it. Fravel will send the guys with the white uniforms and the butterfly nets for me.

[DeanT]

Fravel will send the guys with the white uniforms and the butterfly nets for me.

Pretty sure it would be like Shutter Island. I hope for your sake that they have internet access so you can still post.

[andymays]

Pretty sure it would be like Shutter Island. I hope for your sake that they have internet access so you can still post.

Shutter Island works for me. I think they give you some special powers once you get there. I'll communicate with you guys somehow.

YouTube - "Shutter Island" - Official Trailer [HD]
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5iaYLCiq5RM

[Charlie D]

Fravel SEES the Light, but refuses to admit to it by looks of it Andy :D

[andymays]

Fravel SEES the Light, but refuses to admit to it by looks of it Andy :D

He plays hardball.

[Charlie D]

If anyone of you guys would like to ask Charles Hayward a question, he can be found here http://www.nyra.com/livechat/index.shtml

[jelly]

0% takeout late pk4.It won't cost them a dime It will actually make them money.


The light just hasn't come on yet.These aren't the brightest people they remind me of Hacks.

[Stillriledup]

0% takeout late pk4.It won't cost them a dime It will actually make them money.


The light just hasn't come on yet.These aren't the brightest people they remind me of Hacks.


That would be amazing. they could even do a 3 percent takeout, just to make a little bit of money. That pool would be 5 million or more every day and the 'buzz' around Del mar would be spectacular with this bet. People who wagering into this bet would be downloading all the races and betting other stuff, the handle on all the other races would go way up, they would make it back and create new players in the process.

[jelly]

That would be amazing. they could even do a 3 percent takeout, just to make a little bit of money. That pool would be 5 million or more every day and the 'buzz' around Del mar would be spectacular with this bet. People who wagering into this bet would be downloading all the races and betting other stuff, the handle on all the other races would go way up, they would make it back and create new players in the process.



Spot on.