FIRST TIME STARTERS

[SMOO]

I've always wondered if FTS's do better or worse in the long run when it comes to ROI. Anyone have an answer for that? TIA.

[xfile]

If you lump all FTS together I think you know the answer. I like to look at pattern of workouts (not nec. time) and the trainer.

[SMOO]

If you lump all FTS together I think you know the answer. I like to look at pattern of workouts (not nec. time) and the trainer.

Thanks, I was just wondering if playing only starters in maiden races gives one at least a slight advantage overall.

[xfile]

Thanks, I was just wondering if playing only starters in maiden races gives one at least a slight advantage overall.All FTS is a loosing prop in the general sense. But if you have a system that works for FTS's it can be profitable. Like I said. Workout patterns and trainers make the difference for me. I'd rather see long steady workouts than fast works. Any horse can work fast on any given day.

[RaceBookJoe]

I used to love FTS races, and even though i have modified my handicapping over the years, i still look at some of my original "FTS angles" mainly out of habit:

1. FTS is MSW...steady works with a few quick times, good trainer, good jock, tote actions.

2. FTS is Mcl.... if they show fast works i usually throw them out, if the experienced runners in the race look bad i will just pass the race.

3. FTS is a race other than maiden i will pay close attention, especially tote and what i would call trainer intention.

Now i know that tote action has changed over the years, but i started usuing these angles back in the early/mid 70's and habits are hard to break. I havent done any recent research on these angles either. Where these angles or any angles really get good are when " normal " handicapping leads you away from the other horses. rbj

[46zilzal]

Some barns have it figured out when the baby has enough experience to make a run first time out. We have a fellow here from Mexico who takes moderate horses, prepares them well and they run like the wind, BUT he is an exception and not the rule.

Many barns at Woodbine have the knack as well.

Still coming over there with all the noise and chaos of their first race, it takes a superior horse to overcome all that distraction and it is often very hard to make that distinction.

[soupman2]

[QUOTE=RaceBookJoe]I used to love FTS races, and even though i have modified my handicapping over the years, i still look at some of my original "FTS angles" mainly out of habit:

2. FTS is Mcl.... if they show fast works i usually throw them out, if the experienced runners in the race look bad i will just pass the race.
Joe- curious- why do you throw out the fast works?

I like the FTS races myself, particularly at the big tracks. I always view the works differently.

Thanks
Bob

[RaceBookJoe]

[QUOTE=RaceBookJoe]I used to love FTS races, and even though i have modified my handicapping over the years, i still look at some of my original "FTS angles" mainly out of habit:

2. FTS is Mcl.... if they show fast works i usually throw them out, if the experienced runners in the race look bad i will just pass the race.
Joe- curious- why do you throw out the fast works?

I like the FTS races myself, particularly at the big tracks. I always view the works differently.

Thanks
Bob

I always looked at it like this : If a trainer has a maiden who can run fast, then why would he put him in a Mcl race? Its like the trainer is already giving up on him, and if the horse has speed then the trainer should at least give him a shot where is he isnt up for sale. Its not a rule that is set in stone, but just something that makes me say hmmm. rbj

[skate]

SMOO


It really depends on "the Circuit".

[plainolebill]

I bet 1st time starters when the field they are facing is full of proven losers, good or unusual work patterns but never chalky ones. Sometimes it's just a process of elimenation.

Donald Warren had a 1st'er in a turf route about a week ago that had a very unusual pattern: working every 3 days, long work - blowout - long work. He won and I didn't have a penny on him even though I looked at that pattern for a good 10 minutes.

[Xman2]

I have found that the best use for first time starters is keying them on top of trifectas. I do this when there is only one of them in the race, and I will key them with 4 or 5 of the other "logical" horses in the race, and only when they are double digit odds. The payoffs are almost always much larger than anticipated and these have been the source of my largest payoffs in the game. Very few people will key them, especially when they are long priced. It is worth the 12-20 dollars because; Do you know who knows how first time starters are going to run? Nobody. So if you are going to bet them, you should be well compensated for doing so.

Xman2

[Stillriledup]

First timers are inherently overbet. Especially ones with fancy connections like a popular jock or top trainer.

People don't realize that an unraced horse has to be prepped specifically to win first time out. Very few win unless they're prepped to win as FTS. People think that if a FTS is the fastest horse he might win, but that's not how it works. Most trainers with a talented youngster arent going to crank them up to win first time out because they dont want to ruin the horse by doing too much too soon. They givem a race or two and then the horse might be ready to fire a great shot.

There's a time and a place to bet firsters, you can make nice money knowing when and where.

[WinterTriangle]

I have found that the best use for first time starters is keying them on top of trifectas.
Xman2

Makes a very nice ticket! if I can confirm sire/bmsire "wins early" and surface/distance, plus trainer ability for prepping these as SRU mentions. It helps to know that some are bred for longer (than 6F which is often what some start out running) and winning later, so I can usually find these to bet against with very good result.

[cj]

In races with 3 or less first timers, the first timers return about 68 cents per dollar bet. Those that have run return about 73 cents per dollar.

[pandy]

I've had some of my best scores with longshot firsters. My rule for first time starters, longshots only, betting first time starters below 9-1 odds, rarely a good bet, trainer intent and win percentage with firsters, works, win early or speed pedigrees. Trainer intent is pretty basic, for instance a horse that debuts with blinkers is not prepping, it's a go. Two year olds debuting for top barns at Saratoga, Del Mar, are not prepping, the owners are there to watch their horse win. That's why even a patient trainer like Nick Zito has popped many two year old firsters at Saratoga over the years.

A bullet work or fast gate work, not prepping, trying to win. I also like to bet firsters from barns that are suddenly winning with firsters. For instance, John Sadler used to be terrible with firsters then a few years ago he got hot with firsters and has stayed hot.

But streaks can end. John Kimmel was once the best firster trainer in New York, now he rarely wins with a firster.

A good way to catch boxcar prices, high dosage in sprints, 3.00 or higher, many winners that pay between $40 and $100 right out of the box. Horses bred for speed win far more often first time out than horses bred for stamina.

Workout reports can help, for instance, Zenyatta's debut was amazing, I bet her because the clocker reports raved about her and said that she was finishing her workouts very fast and on her own, breezing. Breezes are always more impressive than handily.

[BlueShoe]

In races with 3 or less first timers, the first timers return about 68 cents per dollar bet. Those that have run return about 73 cents per dollar.
Believe that some years ago a study was done that confirms this; that first starters have a lower impact value and do not win their share compared to experienced runners that have had at least one start. That said, perhaps the best way to use first starters is to tab the tote. Firsters that are live on the board and receive heavy betting action are often very good plays. Not the highly publicized high cost babies that are M/L favorites, these are already public property, and offer no value.

[lamboguy]

its I've had some of my best scores with longshot firsters. My rule for first time starters, longshots only, betting first time starters below 9-1 odds, rarely a good bet, trainer intent and win percentage with firsters, works, win early or speed pedigrees. Trainer intent is pretty basic, for instance a horse that debuts with blinkers is not prepping, it's a go. Two year olds debuting for top barns at Saratoga, Del Mar, are not prepping, the owners are there to watch their horse win. That's why even a patient trainer like Nick Zito has popped many two year old firsters at Saratoga over the years.

A bullet work or fast gate work, not prepping, trying to win. I also like to bet firsters from barns that are suddenly winning with firsters. For instance, John Sadler used to be terrible with firsters then a few years ago he got hot with firsters and has stayed hot.

But streaks can end. John Kimmel was once the best firster trainer in New York, now he rarely wins with a firster.

A good way to catch boxcar prices, high dosage in sprints, 3.00 or higher, many winners that pay between $40 and $100 right out of the box. Horses bred for speed win far more often first time out than horses bred for stamina.

Workout reports can help, for instance, Zenyatta's debut was amazing, I bet her because the clocker reports raved about her and said that she was finishing her workouts very fast and on her own, breezing. Breezes are always more impressive than handily.all true. i ran a horse this year at monmouth for $50k mcl, she got beat 10 lengths, she win next out msw and paid $25.00. she didn't win the first time because she didn't train over the monmouth surface, she came up ready, but she went farm to gate which is very tough to do on a surface like monmouth. its completly impossible to do in calder. you can win going farm to gulfstream and saratoga though. i had one in for a saratoga race but had to scratch because the horse got sick on the ride up.

[SMOO]

In races with 3 or less first timers, the first timers return about 68 cents per dollar bet. Those that have run return about 73 cents per dollar.

Thanks cj, this is pretty much what I was looking for. :ThmbUp:

I would assume the ROI gets closer together with 4 or more first timers?

[cj]

Thanks cj, this is pretty much what I was looking for. :ThmbUp:

I would assume the ROI gets closer together with 4 or more first timers?

I'll check later, just seemed like a good place to start. I'll try it with 1 through ALL.

[SMOO]

I'll check later, just seemed like a good place to start. I'll try it with 1 through ALL.
Thanks cj.