A Turf Race Without any Turf Horses?

[aharon5741]

OK, I started to go over the race sequence for the 8/28 all stakes pick four at Calder and the first race in the sequence is the Fasig Tipton Turf Dash. Not one of the horses entered has ever raced on Turf before!?

Is this common for two year old turf stakes like this, if there are many? What should I be looking for? There are a few horses who have run on the AW surfaces at Woodbine and Keeneland but that's about it.

Do you think that the face that none of them have ever run on the grass adds a lot of uncertainly into the race, or should it be handicapped like any other 2 year old race?

Thanks!

Aaron

[andymays]

Start with the Trainer (how they do in turf races percentagewise) and the Breeding. Some trainers just can't get a horse to win on turf no matter how good the breeding is for it. Some trainers can get a horse that really doesn't seem to be bred for it and do well on turf.

For turf dashes the breeding might not matter as much.

There's a lot more to it but this might get you started.

[horses4courses]

As Andy stated, sharp turf trainers and decent turf breeding are key factors.
Stats are readily available on those fronts through DRF and Brisnet.

Two other things to consider might help you, also.

In this type of situation, take a close look at any horses with listed works over the turf. This shows that a trainer is likely pointing towards the lawn with this horse, and that he deserves consideration.

Lastly, if you are able to wager close to post time on the day, do not ignore the oddsboard. If this race is the opening leg of your P4, pay attention to horses that are live on the board.

I would list the factors above in order of importance as follows:

(1) Trainer record on turf
(2) Turf breeding
(3) Live on the oddsboard?
(4) Listed turf works

Good luck!

[illinoisbred]

Not to be a contrarian here...I wouldn't eliminate those that have shown real ability already on dirt. Many times precociousness in 2 yr. olds overides turf breeding and the trainer. Turf ability( slop and routing ability too for that matter) displayed by 2 yr. olds often doesn't translate into a career affinity for said surfaces.

[JohnGalt1]

And if, after following the above good advice, and you are not certain you can find an edge, you can PASS the race or hit the ALL button (if the rest of a multi-race bet can be narrowed down to just stron contenders).

Even with good breeding, speed, good turf jockey and trainer, every horse's ability is UNKNOWN on a new surface.

[skate]

Like you say, adds Uncertainty.

If you gotta play, start with the highest price and we'll split it, thanks.

[RaceBookJoe]

Randomness?? :)

[46zilzal]

And if, after following the above good advice, and you are not certain you can find an edge, you can PASS the race or hit the ALL button (if the rest of a multi-race bet can be narrowed down to just strong contenders).

Even with good breeding, speed, good turf jockey and trainer, every horse's ability is UNKNOWN on a new surface.
Exactly...of all fields, turfer firsters are next to impossible to sort out

[Tom]

Some of the best betting opportunities there are.
Many tools out there to use to cut through the noise.

[therussmeister]

Is this common for two year old turf stakes like this, if there are many? What should I be looking for?


Yes, it is common because there are very few races carded for 2yo on turf until fall.

[Trotman]

Looking for something that's not there seals the deal for me. IMO the race is unplayable "NO BET"

[RaceBookJoe]

Looking for something that's not there seals the deal for me. IMO the race is unplayable "NO BET"

Thats the biggest advantage we have...if you dont like what you see, you dont have to risk your money. rbj

[aharon5741]

Thanks everyone for your opinions and feedback. The second race is a dirt route with no hose that has ever run a route race and the third race is all turf firsters again!. I capped the pick four, but its not going to be a big ticket, like most of you said, too much uncertainty.

I do think its a great collection of races though, and the fact that they're all 2 year olds only adds to the complexity.

[plainolebill]

Dirt form is good here and as has been stated already a good trainer with a decent rider. I think just about any kind of breeding can win turf races for young horses. From my observations not many of the winners of 2 and early 3yo turf races will amount to much later on.

[therussmeister]

Dirt form is good here and as has been stated already a good trainer with a decent rider. I think just about any kind of breeding can win turf races for young horses. From my observations not many of the winners of 2 and early 3yo turf races will amount to much later on.
Maybe I just haven't been able to figure it out, but it seems to me any kind of breeding can win turf races at 5 or 5 1/2 furlongs.

[aharon5741]

Looks like those who said that this race was unpredictable were right. The winner paid $97 :bang: :bang: :bang:

See the news clip for more info.

MIAMI GARDENS, Fla. – Richard Rowan’s Texas homebred 2-year-old colt Machisa won the $70,000 Fasig-Tipton Turf Dash, the first of six stakes races for 2 year olds at Calder Casino & Race Course’s Juvenile Showcase on Saturday.

The longshot covered the five furlongs on firm turf in :56.51 under jockey Sebastian Madrid for trainer Juan Arias. Machisa returned $97.60, $29.40, and $10.40. Dual Exhauzt finished 5¼ lengths back in second, while Motin was another 2¾ lengths back in third.

(Because Machisa was bred in Texas, he was not eligible for funding from the Florida Thoroughbred Breeders’ and Owners’ Association, thus $30,000 in purse money was reverted and the total purse for this race was $70,000.)

Winning trainer’s quotes: Juan Arias — “I was expecting him to run big, being his first time on turf. Our goal was to break his maiden and then try him on grass. I trained both his sire and dam (sire Safado never raced), but they were never tried on grass. But I knew he (Machisa) would run well. He’ll get a little rest now, a little freshening. I’d say we’ll keep him on the turf after that performance.”

Winning jockey’s quotes: Sebastian Madrid – “He just barely got up in time to break his maiden last time out and he didn’t really beat much of a tough field either. Mr. Rowan and Juan Arias told me they were going to run him on the turf and he would be even better. I have to give both of them all the credit because he didn’t just win, he did it impressively. He broke so sharp and his acceleration was much improved over last time.”