The Race of The Year—The Personal Ensign "Showdown At The Spa"

[Stevie Belmont]

Next Sunday.

This year there have been some really nice races. Rachel Alexandra & Zenyatta have done their thing, albeit against slightly lesser competition. Two great champions in their own right, and they both have delighted the crowds each and every time they have stepped on to the track this year.

The Alabama was a highly anticipated race, and so was the Whitney. But this Sunday is the one race I have waited to see the moment RA's crew pegged it on their calendar. The Personal Ensign's sex appeal even surpasses that of Travers Stakes this particular year. To me this is the headliner of the year so far. The Personal Ensign is thee main event of this year.

Rachel Alexandra takes on Life At Ten in the “Showdown at The Spa.” And a race that I feel will not leave too many disappointed. Rachel Alexandra has something to prove next week against a champion race mare in Life At Ten, who is riding a 6 race-winning streak into this. Life At Ten has trained very well leading up to this. She will gun for 7th consecutive win and looks ready. Rachel Alexandra will come in off a race where she won in absolutely brutal, hot conditions at Monmouth Park. Conditions not fit for man or horse. I don't think she showed her best that day by any means. I expect her to be at her best for this.

Summer is promising to go out with a big bang.

[PhantomOnTour]

Race of the year???

[Stevie Belmont]

Well, for me it is.

[OntheRail]

Race of the year???

Yep... it's a BIG WEEKEND COMING... :jump: .

[46zilzal]

Race of the year???
Ah I got that same jolt. Unless you OWN a horse in that race it would hardly qualify that high

[Hanover1]

The best thing I see about this race is the chance to see if RA has regained her former form at 100% A will to win will often prevail, but 100% in all areas is needed to prevail in this one......

[DeanT]

I think I am with you on this Stevie.

I watch Z's races, just to see if she can not lose. The TC races, of course. I was looking forward to the Haskell.

But this race, as a pure race for interest, I think for me is tops in 2010.

[joanied]

I can't wait either:jump: this one is going to be huge!! Devil May Care vs Blind Luck was big...and except that DMC just didn't fire, Blind Luck's impressive win was awesome...racing needs more of these head to head battles...trainers that don't run from the competion and getting Rachel & Life at Ten together is a great thing...and I consider it to be one of the top 3 races of the year, so far...
Rachel will ned her best effort, seems they have both been training great and I expect to see a battle royal down the stretch...just hope Calvin stays cool in the saddle...can't wait to see the other entries, but surely, it'll be a two horse race.
The Travers lost a little for me since Baffert decided to skip it with Lucky...still, a solid field.
Saratoga coming to a close:( ...but oh, what a weekend it'll be:jump: :ThmbUp: :jump:

[Hanover1]

Look at it this way...yer gonna get a chance to get a price on 2nd wagering choice who is not a slouch.......good gimmick race.

[Jasonm921]

I can't wait either:jump: this one is going to be huge!! Devil May Care vs Blind Luck was big...and except that DMC just didn't fire, Blind Luck's impressive win was awesome...racing needs more of these head to head battles...trainers that don't run from the competion and getting Rachel & Life at Ten together is a great thing...and I consider it to be one of the top 3 races of the year, so far...
Rachel will ned her best effort, seems they have both been training great and I expect to see a battle royal down the stretch...just hope Calvin stays cool in the saddle...can't wait to see the other entries, but surely, it'll be a two horse race.
The Travers lost a little for me since Baffert decided to skip it with Lucky...still, a solid field.
Saratoga coming to a close:( ...but oh, what a weekend it'll be:jump: :ThmbUp: :jump:

Still have the Woodward next week...so not done yet. I think this is the race of the weekend. Two horses at top level competition that run exactly the same way (on the lead). This may get very interesting.

[toussaud]

I think I am going to die from anticipation for the week after this one coming up

1. college football finally here

2. woodward

i could not sleep last year the night before, might be the same this year

[Jasonm921]

Joanied....I was bored and made a little promotional poster/photo of the matchup. http://www.flickr.com/photos/easygoer/4921817383/

[Jasonm921]

I just looked at the potential field for this race....Not much except for the top two. Can you say (unofficial) "Match Race".

[PhantomOnTour]

Yep... it's a BIG WEEKEND COMING... :jump: .
Can we agree to call it the Weekend Of The Year? We've got some nice ones lined up at Sar. Without Lookin At Lucky the Travers oughta be a value laden affair with the money spread out and a fine race.

I am just keeping my fingers crossed that the filly/mare division holds together and the top gals meet in the Ladies Classic. We could be lookin at Zen (maybe, if not the Classic), Rachel, Blind Luck, Devil May Care, Life At Ten and maybe even Evening Jewel. Who am I leaving out? Sure there are others....so what I am hoping for is a very close Personal Ensign this wknd. A tight finish btw the top two would set the table nicely.

[letswastemoney]

The Pletcher elixir has run out...

[Stevie Belmont]

You have the pulse of a rock.



Ah I got that same jolt. Unless you OWN a horse in that race it would hardly qualify that high

[Stevie Belmont]

"Match Up of The Year" would have been the better title. Nonetheless a great weekend coming.

[Dahoss9698]

The Pletcher elixir has run out...

Did you see the 8th yesterday?

[classhandicapper]

I making a trip up there Saturday night to see this one. Hope it's worth it. :ThmbUp:

[joanied]

Still have the Woodward next week...so not done yet. I think this is the race of the weekend. Two horses at top level competition that run exactly the same way (on the lead). This may get very interesting.

Yep...I shoulda said 'coming' to a close...and it's still strange for me that the Woodward is at Saratoga.
I read that the Spa surface has been playing slow...if that's true, hope they speed it up for the weekend...yeah, they do have the same style of running, we might see a match race within a race...the two of them running in tandem...well, may the best mare win...and like DMC & Blind Luck, I hope they get matched up again before the BC...I can't wait for the Cotillion and hope both DMC & Blind Luck make it to the gate...oh, the Woodward should be another great race too!!

[joanied]

Joanied....I was bored and made a little promotional poster/photo of the matchup. http://www.flickr.com/photos/easygoer/4921817383/

:ThmbUp: :ThmbUp: :ThmbUp: as always, Jason...excellent...you are a very talented dude...and, as always, I spent some time looking at your photos...absolutley love that one of Calvin having a smoke...fabulous candid shot.

I beleive you are correct about the feild for the PE...I was half in jest when I said we might see a match race within a race with RA & LaT...but now I'll say the same thing and be serious...me thinks this one's gonna be super good.

I think I already asked you, wether or not you'll be there, and you said no...bummer...I'll miss your photos of the great weekend ahead. I just love your stuff...you outta make a coffee table book because, between you & me :) ...you're as good as any pro I've seen, including Barbara Livingston:eek:

[Jasonm921]

Thanks Joanied. I learned alot from Barbara when I was a teenager. Yeah I'm done with Saratoga until next year. But I will be in front of TVG for all the stakes action this weekend.

[gm10]

Next Sunday.

This year there have been some really nice races. Rachel Alexandra & Zenyatta have done their thing, albeit against slightly lesser competition. Two great champions in their own right, and they both have delighted the crowds each and every time they have stepped on to the track this year.

The Alabama was a highly anticipated race, and so was the Whitney. But this Sunday is the one race I have waited to see the moment RA's crew pegged it on their calendar. The Personal Ensign's sex appeal even surpasses that of Travers Stakes this particular year. To me this is the headliner of the year so far. The Personal Ensign is thee main event of this year.

Rachel Alexandra takes on Life At Ten in the “Showdown at The Spa.” And a race that I feel will not leave too many disappointed. Rachel Alexandra has something to prove next week against a champion race mare in Life At Ten, who is riding a 6 race-winning streak into this. Life At Ten has trained very well leading up to this. She will gun for 7th consecutive win and looks ready. Rachel Alexandra will come in off a race where she won in absolutely brutal, hot conditions at Monmouth Park. Conditions not fit for man or horse. I don't think she showed her best that day by any means. I expect her to be at her best for this.

Summer is promising to go out with a big bang.

I think Sunday is going to be a bit of anticlimax for Rachel Alexandra fans. Even the 2009 Rachel would have been fully stretched to win this, and the 2010 Rachel shouldn't even be the favourite for this race. I hope she'll be 2/5 or something so I can lay the hell out of her on Betfair.

Just my opinion at this stage anyway, the complete field isn't even known yet. But Life At Ten looks the one to beat imo.

[the little guy]

I think Sunday is going to be a bit of anticlimax for Rachel Alexandra fans. Even the 2009 Rachel would have been fully stretched to win this, and the 2010 Rachel shouldn't even be the favourite for this race. I hope she'll be 2/5 or something so I can lay the hell out of her on Betfair.

Just my opinion at this stage anyway, the complete field isn't even known yet. But Life At Ten looks the one to beat imo.


Was there really any reason to further confirm what a cinch Rachel Alexandra is on Sunday?


" Even the 2009 Rachel would have been fully stretched to win this..."

Good stuff. I hope you don't mind if I borrow this.

[Fager Fan]

Can we agree to call it the Weekend Of The Year? We've got some nice ones lined up at Sar. Without Lookin At Lucky the Travers oughta be a value laden affair with the money spread out and a fine race.

I am just keeping my fingers crossed that the filly/mare division holds together and the top gals meet in the Ladies Classic. We could be lookin at Zen (maybe, if not the Classic), Rachel, Blind Luck, Devil May Care, Life At Ten and maybe even Evening Jewel. Who am I leaving out? Sure there are others....so what I am hoping for is a very close Personal Ensign this wknd. A tight finish btw the top two would set the table nicely.

How does Devil keep being mentioned, who Blind Luck and 2 other horses just trounced, and people forgetting about the filly who ran 2nd to Blind Luck in her last 2 races by a combined neck?

Stevie, I'm with you on this race. Not only is Rachel meeting up with another very good filly but we're going to see if she can go 1 1/4 miles. Huge ramifications coming out of this race. Is the old Rachel back? Can she be competitive in the Classic or do they have to cut the distance back and go in the Distaff?

[Fager Fan]

I think Sunday is going to be a bit of anticlimax for Rachel Alexandra fans. Even the 2009 Rachel would have been fully stretched to win this, and the 2010 Rachel shouldn't even be the favourite for this race. I hope she'll be 2/5 or something so I can lay the hell out of her on Betfair.

Just my opinion at this stage anyway, the complete field isn't even known yet. But Life At Ten looks the one to beat imo.

You'll either eat steak or crow Sunday night. I'm thinking crow.

[Charlie D]

" Even the 2009 Rachel would have been fully stretched to win this..."

Good stuff. I hope you don't mind if I borrow this.


Little Devil

:D

[46zilzal]

I think Sunday is going to be a bit of anticlimax for Rachel Alexandra fans. Even the 2009 Rachel would have been fully stretched to win this, and the 2010 Rachel shouldn't even be the favourite for this race. I hope she'll be 2/5 or something so I can lay the hell out of her on Betfair.

Just my opinion at this stage anyway, the complete field isn't even known yet. But Life At Ten looks the one to beat imo.
WITHOUT seeing the past performances, I tend to agree but will throw in my two cents once I can compare the lines to one another. RA is a bit like Hard Spun and 10 furlongs is a steep wall to climb.

[Jasonm921]

I think this is a BS argument. She hasn't been staggering at a mile and an eighth. Her finish up times have been extremely solid. I don't see any evidence that she can't handle a mile and a quarter. Is it possible that they duel each other into the ground...yeah that's possible but that can happen at a shorter distance as well.

[joanied]

Thanks Joanied. I learned alot from Barbara when I was a teenager. Yeah I'm done with Saratoga until next year. But I will be in front of TVG for all the stakes action this weekend.

Jason...I speak the truth...seems you learned well from Livingston, and I would think she'd be proud of all you did learn...horses are not easy to photograph, although, when they are in action, it's alot easier to get a good shot, it's those standing conformation type shots that are so difficult to get.
When I was in the horse business I bet i'd take 50 shots before I got the ones I'd use to market my babies...
I take my hat off to you...and still think a coffee table book would be great...I'd buy a copy:ThmbUp:

[joanied]

Oh, yee of little faith :faint: ...it's going to be a battle to the wire, but I beleive Rachel will take the PE...maybe not by much...she'll get the extra distance, IMO.

Is it Sunday yet :)

[gm10]

Was there really any reason to further confirm what a cinch Rachel Alexandra is on Sunday?


" Even the 2009 Rachel would have been fully stretched to win this..."

Good stuff. I hope you don't mind if I borrow this.

You think she's a cinch? I hope you can convince everyone around you and that the odds will be very very low. She's got a chance, but I think she'll lose.

[gm10]

You'll either eat steak or crow Sunday night. I'm thinking crow.

If it's steak I'll send you the bill.
Have you seen the numbers from Life At Ten? She's at her peak and has won over the distance. The others aren't exactly slow either.
Rachel has not shown me anything special this year, and lost twice. I make her 3/1 4/1 but I suspect she'll be 2/5.

Someone once called this a RIP - a Reputation Induced Play.

[gm10]

I think this is a BS argument. She hasn't been staggering at a mile and an eighth. Her finish up times have been extremely solid. I don't see any evidence that she can't handle a mile and a quarter. Is it possible that they duel each other into the ground...yeah that's possible but that can happen at a shorter distance as well.

Yes AND no.

Last year she would finish fast after going fast in the early and middle part of the race.

This year, she has managed to throw in few fast last fractions, but only when she got a slower early or middle fraction in her race.

The distinction is there, and it can have big consequences. It has served me very well in the past when it came to separating the very strong horses from the strong horses.

[thespaah]

Yep... it's a BIG WEEKEND COMING... :jump: .
Weather forecast looks magnificent!!!!!!
From the National Weather Service
NYZ041-260815-
NORTHERN SARATOGA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SARATOGA SPRINGS
342 PM EDT WED AUG 25 2010




.SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...CLEAR. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S. LOWS
IN THE MID 50S.
.SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...CLEAR. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S. LOWS IN THE
LOWER 60S.


Ya can't beat that with a stick!!!!!

[PaceAdvantage]

If it's steak I'll send you the bill.
Have you seen the numbers from Life At Ten? She's at her peak and has won over the distance. The others aren't exactly slow either.
Rachel has not shown me anything special this year, and lost twice. I make her 3/1 4/1 but I suspect she'll be 2/5.

Someone once called this a RIP - a Reputation Induced Play.Numbers don't mean squat anymore. Haven't you heard?

[the little guy]

If it's steak I'll send you the bill.
Have you seen the numbers from Life At Ten? She's at her peak and has won over the distance. The others aren't exactly slow either.
Rachel has not shown me anything special this year, and lost twice. I make her 3/1 4/1 but I suspect she'll be 2/5.

Someone once called this a RIP - a Reputation Induced Play.


Not that this is a revelation, but anyone that actually thinks Rachel Alexandra is 20% to 25% to win the Personal Ensign doesn't have even a vague clue about handicapping.

This is not to say her rep doesn't play into her odds, but considering your nonsense, 1:9 feels like an overlay.

[gm10]

Not that this is a revelation, but anyone that actually thinks Rachel Alexandra is 20% to 25% to win the Personal Ensign doesn't have even a vague clue about handicapping.

This is not to say her rep doesn't play into her odds, but considering your nonsense, 1:9 feels like an overlay.

For all your big words, it seems like it's you who doesn't really understand handicapping. She has never won over the distance, the time she tried 9.5F she didn't exactly look like she was relishing it. It was her weakest effort of a stellar year (by my numbers).

She has lost twice in 2010. The two races she won were against Distinctive Dixie who managed to follow up with a crushing defeat in a stakes race at Indiana, and Queen Martha who I remember seeing in 2K races at Windsor last year. The moment she faced anything that could actually run over two turns, she lost.

She will be facing plenty of talented fillies and mares. For example, Life At Ten won has won six in a row, including a grade 1 over Unrivaled Belle (!) and a grade 2 over 10F.

In my opinion, you aren't handicapping, you are speculating that the RA from 2009 shows up on Sunday. Good luck.

[the little guy]

Honestly, anyone that doesn't understand what a gigantic race she ran in last year's Preakness doesn't know anything about handicapping.

Once again, no new territory here either.

[Fager Fan]

For all your big words, it seems like it's you who doesn't really understand handicapping. She has never won over the distance, the time she tried 9.5F she didn't exactly look like she was relishing it. It was her weakest effort of a stellar year (by my numbers).

She has lost twice in 2010. The two races she won were against Distinctive Dixie who managed to follow up with a crushing defeat in a stakes race at Indiana, and Queen Martha who I remember seeing in 2K races at Windsor last year. The moment she faced anything that could actually run over two turns, she lost.

She will be facing plenty of talented fillies and mares. For example, Life At Ten won has won six in a row, including a grade 1 over Unrivaled Belle (!) and a grade 2 over 10F.

In my opinion, you aren't handicapping, you are speculating that the RA from 2009 shows up on Sunday. Good luck.

From what I can tell, your criticism isn't based on fact but instead the picture that you use as your avatar. I wouldn't call that handicapping but instead letting bias cloud your handicapping.

[Dahoss9698]

She will be facing plenty of talented fillies and mares. For example, Life At Ten won has won six in a row, including a grade 1 over Unrivaled Belle (!) and a grade 2 over 10F.

In my opinion, you aren't handicapping, you are speculating that the RA from 2009 shows up on Sunday. Good luck.

Aside from Life At Ten, who else will RA be facing that is talented? You say "she will be facing plenty of talented fillies and mares." Since your are in the know, who else is she facing?

The race is essentially a match race. Now, if you are of the opinion Life Is Ten will defeat RA, fair enough. She's run well this year. However a little bit of handicapping will show her form is a bit dressed up. She rode a speed bias in the Ogden Phipps and that was a horrible field she beat at Delaware, and she was allowed to crawl on the lead.

She's a nice horse and at this point it's hard ignoring anything Pletcher sends to the track. But she's going to have to run a lot harder to beat RA than she has her last two.

As for your betting line...laughable.

[westny]

For all your big words, it seems like it's you who doesn't really understand handicapping. :lol: In my opinion, you aren't handicapping, you are speculating that the RA from 2009 shows up on Sunday. Good luck.


Post of the YEAR! :lol:

[Stevie Belmont]

Form cycle and class if you know even a little about this. Who gives a crap who beat her. Those race meant crap. Life At Ten faces a champ this time. No guarantees in anything. But they will both show up and run.

[Stevie Belmont]

The ole circle jerk of who beat who. Who cares?

Abstract thinking will get ya beat everytime. What about Jessica is Back? She was smoked in the Fleur de lis by RA. Life At Ten worked hard to beat her in her race before that in April. Not that it really matters on Sunday. And it doesn't. Just like all your talk of who she lost to. It's only one side of the pie with these posts.

For all your big words, it seems like it's you who doesn't really understand handicapping. She has never won over the distance, the time she tried 9.5F she didn't exactly look like she was relishing it. It was her weakest effort of a stellar year (by my numbers).

She has lost twice in 2010. The two races she won were against Distinctive Dixie who managed to follow up with a crushing defeat in a stakes race at Indiana, and Queen Martha who I remember seeing in 2K races at Windsor last year. The moment she faced anything that could actually run over two turns, she lost.

She will be facing plenty of talented fillies and mares. For example, Life At Ten won has won six in a row, including a grade 1 over Unrivaled Belle (!) and a grade 2 over 10F.

In my opinion, you aren't handicapping, you are speculating that the RA from 2009 shows up on Sunday. Good luck.

[NTamm1215]

If it's steak I'll send you the bill.
Have you seen the numbers from Life At Ten? She's at her peak and has won over the distance. The others aren't exactly slow either.
Rachel has not shown me anything special this year, and lost twice. I make her 3/1 4/1 but I suspect she'll be 2/5.

Someone once called this a RIP - a Reputation Induced Play.

So wiring on one of the most speed favoring tracks of the spring-summer meet then winning when the absolute lone speed on a notoriously speed-favoring track should make Life at Ten the favorite on Saturday?

NT

[gm10]

Honestly, anyone that doesn't understand what a gigantic race she ran in last year's Preakness doesn't know anything about handicapping.

Once again, no new territory here either.

No I don't think she ran a 'gigantic' race. She ended up beating a closing Mind That Bird and Musket Man. The first won ZERO races since. The latter won a stakes race at Tampa in his next race and nothing afterwards. No offense, they are both good horses, but it's not like beating them could ever be called gigantic. It was impressive, nothing more nothing less.

And that's only half the point. The other half is that that was LAST YEAR. She has not impressed me this year.

Anyway, I curious to learn about your handicapping logic that makes her a cinch.

[Charlie D]

Looks an interesting Match Up between RA and LAT. Also an interesting Match Up between GM10 and Rest of entries from Paceadvantage :D

[gm10]

Looks an interesting Match Up between RA and LAT. Also an interesting Match Up between GM10 and Rest of entries from Paceadvantage :D

It's a game of opinions and I gave mine. Good luck to all, especially me.

[Charlie D]

It's a game of opinions .


Can not argue with above gm10

[Dahoss9698]

It's a game of opinions and I gave mine. Good luck to all, especially me.

Still waiting to hear about the other talented fillies that will be running in the race. Give Mo's cousin a call and get back to us.

[Charlie D]

Honestly, anyone that doesn't understand what a gigantic race she ran in last year's Preakness doesn't know anything about handicapping.

.


Well, i guess i know nothing about handicapping.


She was the favourite for a reason and that reason was she was superior in every department to all, but maybe one horse who was probably her equal at that time and that horse ran second.

So no gigantic effort was really needed.

[the little guy]

No I don't think she ran a 'gigantic' race. She ended up beating a closing Mind That Bird and Musket Man. The first won ZERO races since. The latter won a stakes race at Tampa in his next race and nothing afterwards. No offense, they are both good horses, but it's not like beating them could ever be called gigantic. It was impressive, nothing more nothing less.

And that's only half the point. The other half is that that was LAST YEAR. She has not impressed me this year.

Anyway, I curious to learn about your handicapping logic that makes her a cinch.


OK, since you're at a beginner's level....

Races are frequently won because of how they are run. In the Preakness, Rachel Alexandra got involved in a very strong pace with a horse that is now considered one of the top sprinters in the country ( Big Drama ) but had also had reasonable success going long. She drowned him while holding off a horse that had just won the KY Derby by seven lengths and followed his Preakness effort with a solid one in the Belmont despite receiving a poor ride and likely not being comfortable with the mile and a half distance. Musket Man, the other horse you have cited, lost the Grade 1 Carter by a nose this year and finished a solid third to Blame and Quality Road in the Whitney despite being a sacrificial lamb when Quality Road was faced with a potential cakewalk on the front end. However, more importantly, Rachel greatly beat the dynamics of the race in the Preakness, something she also did in the Woodward, which is never an easy task, as playing as significantly into the hands of your opposition the way Rachel did in these two races usually ends up with significantly inferior rivals winning ( or, I suppose you think, for example, that Storm Flag Flying was a fair match under equal circumstance for Azeri when they met in the Personal Ensign a few years ago ).

Since Rachel Alexandra's accomplishments of 2009 don't impress you either, why exactly should anyone care what you think of her this year? You have so clearly shown a complete lack of understanding here that your opinion is moot.

However, since you are so keen on Rachel's opposition that you rate her no more than 25% to win ( she is the 2:5 ML favorite ), please explain what exactly you found impressive about the recent efforts of Life at Ten, Miss Singsix, Classoffiftysix and Persistantly......or is Life at Ten 60% to win....and if so.....why? Take apart her recent races for us please.

[46zilzal]

If RA is 75% the horse she was last year I would be surprised. Over the years I have followed many a female runner and they usually (she is not usual) run about three to four top efforts and then plummet. The smart trainer sees the change and says Break time! There are many a good one that left their best on the track and it never came back again, i.e. Storm Flag Flying, Winning Colors, and the pitifully over-raced and damaged champion, Lady's Secret.

It happens historically too, as Gallorette fell apart after competing against the big guns, Stymie, Assault and Armed. One day she just lost it, never to return. I have seen countless lesser distaffers suffer the same fate: go to the well too often and there is nothing left. We had a good one here that won 7 races in a row against the best on the grounds and after that, nothing in claimers.....a pattern that repeats itself at all levels.

[gm10]

Still waiting to hear about the other talented fillies that will be running in the race. Give Mo's cousin a call and get back to us.

Life At Ten: G1/G2/G3 winner this year
Milwaukee Appeal: G2 winner this year
Miss Singhsix: G3 winner this year
Classofsixtythree: no big wins this year but don't underestimate her, 10F might be what she needs

Rachel Alexandra: G2 winner this year

I think we've got a well balanced field here. IF I RA had regained her 2009 form, I'd make her the favourite, but she hasn't yet, and the evidence that she will find that form is not overwhelming imo. If she runs as she done throughout the season, she still has a reasonable chance but so do the others.

[the little guy]

Life At Ten: G1/G2/G3 winner this year
Milwaukee Appeal: G2 winner this year
Miss Singhsix: G3 winner this year
Classofsixtythree: no big wins this year but don't underestimate her, 10F might be what she needs

Rachel Alexandra: G2 winner this year

I think we've got a well balanced field here. IF I RA had regained her 2009 form, I'd make her the favourite, but she hasn't yet, and the evidence that she will find that form is not overwhelming imo. If she runs as she done throughout the season, she still has a reasonable chance but so do the others.


That's quite a useful critical analysis. At least now we know how you arrived at Rachel being 23% to win.

[Stillriledup]

Gamer, Rachel is an all time great horse. Maybe she's not as good as last year, but she's still pretty darn good.

[Dahoss9698]

Life At Ten: G1/G2/G3 winner this year
Milwaukee Appeal: G2 winner this year
Miss Singhsix: G3 winner this year
Classofsixtythree: no big wins this year but don't underestimate her, 10F might be what she needs

Rachel Alexandra: G2 winner this year

I think we've got a well balanced field here. IF I RA had regained her 2009 form, I'd make her the favourite, but she hasn't yet, and the evidence that she will find that form is not overwhelming imo. If she runs as she done throughout the season, she still has a reasonable chance but so do the others.

And I thought Zilly was making a fool of himself. Those are the talented fillies you were speaking of?

[Stevie Belmont]

You have zero clue. I am sorry. She ripped fast fractions from the get go on the lead and ran Big Drama into the ground, and still had enough to stay on at 1 3/16 and win. What race were you watching? It was a absolutley brilliant front running win.

It's the who beat who circle jerk again.

Oh yea Big Drama came back to smoke a solid field down there at Calder.


No I don't think she ran a 'gigantic' race. She ended up beating a closing Mind That Bird and Musket Man. The first won ZERO races since. The latter won a stakes race at Tampa in his next race and nothing afterwards. No offense, they are both good horses, but it's not like beating them could ever be called gigantic. It was impressive, nothing more nothing less.

And that's only half the point. The other half is that that was LAST YEAR. She has not impressed me this year.

Anyway, I curious to learn about your handicapping logic that makes her a cinch.

[cj]

No I don't think she ran a 'gigantic' race. She ended up beating a closing Mind That Bird and Musket Man. The first won ZERO races since. The latter won a stakes race at Tampa in his next race and nothing afterwards. No offense, they are both good horses, but it's not like beating them could ever be called gigantic. It was impressive, nothing more nothing less.

And that's only half the point. The other half is that that was LAST YEAR. She has not impressed me this year.

Anyway, I curious to learn about your handicapping logic that makes her a cinch.

I'm not sure how her Fleur De Lis couldn't impress you. She ran faster than older colt and many time winner Blame at all points of the race, including the finish. Blame has since defeated Quality Road fairly easily.

Certainly you don't think she was all out in the public workout at Monmouth called the Lady's Secret in searing heat.

[cj]

Well, i guess i know nothing about handicapping.


She was the favourite for a reason and that reason was she was superior in every department to all, but maybe one horse who was probably her equal at that time and that horse ran second.

So no gigantic effort was really needed.

Did you forget she drew the 14 post and dueled wide around the first turn in fast fractions?

[gm10]

OK, since you're at a beginner's level....

Races are frequently won because of how they are run. In the Preakness, Rachel Alexandra got involved in a very strong pace with a horse that is now considered one of the top sprinters in the country ( Big Drama ) but had also had reasonable success going long. She drowned him while holding off a horse that had just won the KY Derby by seven lengths and followed his Preakness effort with a solid one in the Belmont despite receiving a poor ride and likely not being comfortable with the mile and a half distance. Musket Man, the other horse you have cited, lost the Grade 1 Carter by a nose this year and finished a solid third to Blame and Quality Road in the Whitney despite being a sacrificial lamb when Quality Road was faced with a potential cakewalk on the front end. However, more importantly, Rachel greatly beat the dynamics of the race in the Preakness, something she also did in the Woodward, which is never an easy task, as playing as significantly into the hands of your opposition the way Rachel did in these two races usually ends up with significantly inferior rivals winning ( or, I suppose you think, for example, that Storm Flag Flying was a fair match under equal circumstance for Azeri when they met in the Personal Ensign a few years ago ).

Since Rachel Alexandra's accomplishments of 2009 don't impress you either, why exactly should anyone care what you think of her this year? You have so clearly shown a complete lack of understanding here that your opinion is moot.

However, since you are so keen on Rachel's opposition that you rate her no more than 25% to win ( she is the 2:5 ML favorite ), please explain what exactly you found impressive about the recent efforts of Life at Ten, Miss Singsix, Classoffiftysix and Persistantly......or is Life at Ten 60% to win....and if so.....why? Take apart her recent races for us please.

I think there are a few misunderstandings here.

I explicitly called her Preakness an impressive performance. Where do you get it from that I find her 2009 campaign unimpressive?

I asked for your logic why she is a cinch on Sunday. I wasn't remotely interested in your view of the Preakness. But since you gave it anyway, let's go over it.

The first half mile was indeed reasonably fast. Not exceptional, but still fast. However, that was followed by a slow second half mile (49''11) and an equally slow last 1.5F (19''26). She ran impressively, but I fail to see that it was gigantic. There was no Hard Spun that could apply pressure for a mile, there was no Curlin to fend off in the stretch. It was impressive. The Woodward was gigantic.

Anyway, back to Sunday. Based on 2010 form and what I think are RA's distance limitations, I'd make LAT 2/1, RA 3/1, Milwaukee Appeal 4/1, ClassOf and Miss Sing 8/1.

[Charlie D]

Did you forget she drew the 14 post and dueled wide around the first turn in fast fractions?


I'm not forgetting anything CJ.



It's quite simple , no other EP horse could Match her, no other closer could Match MTB at that time. It was a two horse race and she didn't have to put in a gigantic effort because of these factors.

[gm10]

You have zero clue. I am sorry. She ripped fast fractions from the get go on the lead and ran Big Drama into the ground, and still had enough to stay on at 1 3/16 and win. What race were you watching? It was a absolutley brilliant front running win.

It's the who beat who circle jerk again.

Oh yea Big Drama came back to smoke a solid field down there at Calder.

:)
That's quite a way to start your post.

I'm not knocking Big Drama, he is clearly a good sprinter. He does seem to prefer to do his winning at Calder, Charles Town and Delta Downs but which true grade 1 horse doesn't?

I'm not really interested in the Preakness to be honest. We disagree only to a small extent, anyway. She was impressive, I just think that a champion horse would have beaten her that day because it wasn't an easy trip. But there wasn't any champion in the field besides herself.

[gm10]

I'm not sure how her Fleur De Lis couldn't impress you. She ran faster than older colt and many time winner Blame at all points of the race, including the finish. Blame has since defeated Quality Road fairly easily.

Certainly you don't think she was all out in the public workout at Monmouth called the Lady's Secret in searing heat.

Her second half mile was 0.70 sec slower than Blame's, her final furlong was slower as well. It all depends on how you make your figures of course, but to me these are quite important parameters in a race such as this. The level of competition they were facing was of a different level as well, of course.

I wouldn't call Blame's defeat of QR fairly easy. I'm fairly sure that QR would beat him on equal weights and with a less moronic ride from the jockey.

I thought the MTH race was quite good. The extreme heat would be captured in the DTV anyway, as it surely affected all horses. Admittedly, DTV is a bit of a misnomer in this case.

[letswastemoney]

lololol Rachel - the front runner - has a higher chance to have slower closing fractions/closing half than Blame - stalker/closer

If not, Blame is doing something wrong!!!!!!!!!!!

[Dahoss9698]

Anyway, back to Sunday. Based on 2010 form and what I think are RA's distance limitations, I'd make LAT 2/1, RA 3/1, Milwaukee Appeal 4/1, ClassOf and Miss Sing 8/1.

You are aware Miss Singsix finished in front of Milwaukee Appeal last time right?

[cj]

I wouldn't call Blame's defeat of QR fairly easy. I'm fairly sure that QR would beat him on equal weights and with a less moronic ride from the jockey.


Wow, I really wish you bet in our pools. What exactly was moronic about rating a comfortable horse on an open lead in slow to average fractions?

Is there a contest between gm10 and 46 that I didn't know about this week?

[Market Mover]

From what I can tell, your criticism isn't based on fact but instead the picture that you use as your avatar. I wouldn't call that handicapping but instead letting bias cloud your handicapping.
oh snap that is SO messed up!!!

[gm10]

lololol Rachel - the front runner - has a higher chance to have slower closing fractions/closing half than Blame - stalker/closer

If not, Blame is doing something wrong!!!!!!!!!!!

It's a bit more complicated than that. I take the relative importance of each fraction over C&D into account.

Anyway, I was just pointing out that RA wasn't necessarily going faster than Blame at each point in the race.

[gm10]

Wow, I really wish you bet in our pools. What exactly was moronic about rating a comfortable horse on an open lead in slow to average fractions?

Is there a contest between gm10 and 46 that I didn't know about this week?

He was allowing the horse to lose momentum because he thought it was in the bag. Allowing your horse to lose momentum a furlong from home is always risky, but especially so when you are giving 5 lbs away to a horse who has a known closing kick. The 5lbs may be of little significance when you're just cruising along, but they make a big difference when you're asking your horse to deliver some extra. It was a dumb ride. Put Kieren Fallon in that position and he beats Blame 90% of the time.

[gm10]

You are aware Miss Singsix finished in front of Milwaukee Appeal last time right?

Yes I am.
What's your odds-line?

[Market Mover]

Wow, I really wish you bet in our pools. What exactly was moronic about rating a comfortable horse on an open lead in slow to average fractions?

Is there a contest between gm10 and 46 that I didn't know about this week?



The big question remains: how must Life At Ten react early in that run to the first turn to keep Rachel honest? It will be interesting to see if Calvin gets any two turn experience on this track prior to Sunday. This is a pure jockeys' race: Calvin vs. Johnny. They are going to dare each other to go faster and faster for each quarter, and see who is left standing at the end. Safe to say these two in ezactas will be overbet.

[Dahoss9698]

Yes I am.
What's your odds-line?

I prefer to laugh at yours. It's a waste of time making an oddsline for a match race.

[gm10]

I prefer to laugh at yours. It's a waste of time making an oddsline for a match race.

Come on, tell us. Why sit on the fence?

[Dahoss9698]

Come on, tell us. Why sit on the fence?

I'm not sitting on the fence. I have zero interest in betting the race, so I don't have an oddsline.

Plus, like I said, it's just so much fun laughing at yours.

[gm10]

I'm not sitting on the fence. I have zero interest in betting the race, so I don't have an oddsline.

Plus, like I said, it's just so much fun laughing at yours.

If only you had the courage to tell us what chance you give to RA, instead of telling us how stupid someone else's assessment is.

[Dahoss9698]

If only you had the courage to tell us what chance you give to RA, instead of telling us how stupid someone else's assessment is.

Yeah, that's me. Afraid to give my opinion.

Have you ever been right about anything?

[cj]

I would say Rachel has about an 80% chance of winning this. Rachel has 10 straight races of 101 or higher. The 101 was in her return this year, and the 102 her last race in a workout. Her others this year were 105 and 111.

No other horse in the field can run a 105. Life at Ten has a 104 and a 102 showing, the rest are weak. So, her best race beats Rachel on a very off day. Good luck with that. As for the other horses, it would take an epic speed duel to give them any chance...possible, but unlikely.

So that is my 80%...10% to Life at Ten, 10% to the rest, all underlays at any price.

[Hanover1]

Gonna try my best to have it both ways here.....RA is deserved favorite, but no shock if she gets nipped here. An old horseman told me long ago: The quality of your horse does not determine the outcome of the race......

[gm10]

I would say Rachel has about an 80% chance of winning this. Rachel has 10 straight races of 101 or higher. The 101 was in her return this year, and the 102 her last race in a workout. Her others this year were 105 and 111.

No other horse in the field can run a 105. Life at Ten has a 104 and a 102 showing, the rest are weak. So, her best race beats Rachel on a very off day. Good luck with that. As for the other horses, it would take an epic speed duel to give them any chance...possible, but unlikely.

So that is my 80%...10% to Life at Ten, 10% to the rest, all underlays at any price.

I have LAT last figure's as 88/90
Rachel's as 90/87

flip of a coin if you ignore what RA was once capable of (Haskell 97, Mother Goose 98)

be honest .... if you had access to Betfair and RA was 1/5 ... would you not lay her? 1/5 is 83% chance of winning
I think she is a massive lay at anything under 4/5

[DeanT]

She would not be a positive expectation bet for me at 2-5.

I would bet her at anything over 1.9 at betfair and lay at anything 1.70 and below.

[Dahoss9698]

Life At Ten: G1/G2/G3 winner this year
Milwaukee Appeal: G2 winner this year
Miss Singhsix: G3 winner this year
Classofsixtythree: no big wins this year but don't underestimate her, 10F might be what she needs

Rachel Alexandra: G2 winner this year

I think we've got a well balanced field here. IF I RA had regained her 2009 form, I'd make her the favourite, but she hasn't yet, and the evidence that she will find that form is not overwhelming imo. If she runs as she done throughout the season, she still has a reasonable chance but so do the others.

Not that it really matters, because she isn't running, but Milwaukee Appeal isn't a grade 2 winner this, or any other year.

The comment on Classofsixtythree is priceless as well. It will be a miracle if she finishes within a dozen lengths of RA.

[cj]

I have LAT last figure's as 88/90
Rachel's as 90/87

flip of a coin if you ignore what RA was once capable of (Haskell 97, Mother Goose 98)

be honest .... if you had access to Betfair and RA was 1/5 ... would you not lay her? 1/5 is 83% chance of winning
I think she is a massive lay at anything under 4/5

No offense intended, but I don't think anyone here is familiar with your figures or how to interpret them.

LAT's last race was a joke once the other contender broke poorly. If you think she ran better than Rachel in that contest, good luck.

[classhandicapper]

I make Rachel a big favorite in the race Sunday, but I'm not convinced she's the same horse this year as last year (at least yet).

I think it's very likely she was short in her first and possibly even her second start. But her 3rd race was on a track that I marked as potentially very speed favoring. Subsequent performances made me more inclined to think that. So I think the winning figure and impressiveness of that race is probably overstating her current form.

Then came her 4th start where she backed down to a 105.

I think it's reasonable to think her "suspect 109" on that speed favoring track at CD had some impact on the thinking in giving her a 105 figure for the MTH race. In that race, the 2nd place finisher was a turfer that was given a lifetime top and the well beaten 3rd place finisher was also given a top (which she failed to duplicate in her next start in a NW1 ALW race) I'm not saying that 105 figure is inflated. It does seem to fit in reasonably well with the other routes that day. But I don't think that one is concrete either and it's almost certainly not too low.

So "if" she's really somewhere between 100 and 103 horse this year then she's nowhere near where she was last year when she was running faster and more impressively against better horses. That would then mean she's not as big a lock over Life at Ten as many people will think. That's especially true at 10F given that LAT has already gone that far and RA has not.

Like I said, I make her a big favorite. I'm not making a case to bet against her. I will definitely just be a spectator (going there Saturday night). But if this turns into a tough race or if she shortens stride late at 10F or if she runs a disappointing figure I won't be surprised.

[Jasonm921]

Lately Pletcher's grade1horses in NY have been short for whatever reason so either this will be competitive or it will be a 10length route by Rachel. Let's just hope they all return safe and we'll do it again in the Beldame.

[DeanT]

Wolfson had a funny kinda comment.

"I think the distance will help Miss Singhsix, and there should be some pace. Rachel Alexandra and Life at Ten may not both go out for it, but they do like to keep close to the pace, so we hope to have something to run at. I do think Life at Ten is the horse to beat."

[jamey1977]

Post of the YEAR! :lol:
All of you Rachel lovers are going to have to put up or shut up. If she can't beat Zardana , how the hell is your over-hyped Beatle-mania gal going to do against Life At Ten. ? I always said the poor horse is shot. If she can win this she will get my respect. Highly unlikely. Life At Ten by 3 lengths. Maybe I'll get 9 to 5.

[OntheRail]

Life At Ten by 3 lengths. Maybe I'll get 9 to 5.

Yes I agree Rachel will beat her by three lengths. ;)

[gm10]

No offense intended, but I don't think anyone here is familiar with your figures or how to interpret them.

LAT's last race was a joke once the other contender broke poorly. If you think she ran better than Rachel in that contest, good luck.

No offense taken.
Her second last was higher than her last, btw.

Anyway, still wondering, would you not lay her at her 1/5?

[aharon5741]

Mr. Jackson needs to let Borel let her take the lead and go with it. She will simply wear down this field, and she can hold off late comers.

[letswastemoney]

All of you Rachel lovers are going to have to put up or shut up. If she can't beat Zardana , how the hell is your over-hyped Beatle-mania gal going to do against Life At Ten. ? I always said the poor horse is shot. If she can win this she will get my respect. Highly unlikely. Life At Ten by 3 lengths. Maybe I'll get 9 to 5.You do realize that in their next race together, Rachel beat Zardana in the La Troienne by double digit lengths right?

The idiocy of those who question Rachel is beyond illogical.

[Dahoss9698]

All of you Rachel lovers are going to have to put up or shut up. If she can't beat Zardana , how the hell is your over-hyped Beatle-mania gal going to do against Life At Ten. ? I always said the poor horse is shot. If she can win this she will get my respect. Highly unlikely. Life At Ten by 3 lengths. Maybe I'll get 9 to 5.

Poor horse?

At least RA and her connections have something extra to motivate them. Winning your respect....:lol:

[Grits]

All of you Rachel lovers are going to have to put up or shut up. If she can't beat Zardana , how the hell is your over-hyped Beatle-mania gal going to do against Life At Ten. ? I always said the poor horse is shot. If she can win this she will get my respect. Highly unlikely. Life At Ten by 3 lengths. Maybe I'll get 9 to 5.

Who needs your respect, including this filly?

Respect coming from a guy all over the page who plans to beat the game either living on longshots or betting to show. Damn! Give it a rest.:faint:

[Charlie D]

I'm sure there are plenty of owners out there wishing they owned the "poor horse is shot" Rachel A.

Btw, do people make these kind of statements to wind people up or is it just a lack of knowledge showing through??

[cj]

Then came her 4th start where she backed down to a 105.

I think it's reasonable to think her "suspect 109" on that speed favoring track at CD had some impact on the thinking in giving her a 105 figure for the MTH race. In that race, the 2nd place finisher was a turfer that was given a lifetime top and the well beaten 3rd place finisher was also given a top (which she failed to duplicate in her next start in a NW1 ALW race) I'm not saying that 105 figure is inflated. It does seem to fit in reasonably well with the other routes that day. But I don't think that one is concrete either and it's almost certainly not too low.



I think the 105 is even too high, but I don't think it matters. It was an extremely hot day and I would be fairly certain the instructions were to win, nothing more. She wasn't going to run a big race in that heat.

[GaryG]

Btw, do people make these kind of statements to wind people up or is it just a lack of knowledge showing through??Charlie, I would say a combination thereof, plus extreme bitterness.

[cj]

No offense taken.
Her second last was higher than her last, btw.

Anyway, still wondering, would you not lay her at her 1/5?

I had her second last her best, but it still wouldn't beat Rachel's CD race.

As for the 1/5, I just don't have much interest betting races with two standouts that will be overbet. We can't lay horses here so I won't pretend to have the expertise needed to take bets.

[cj]

All of you Rachel lovers are going to have to put up or shut up. If she can't beat Zardana , how the hell is your over-hyped Beatle-mania gal going to do against Life At Ten. ? I always said the poor horse is shot. If she can win this she will get my respect. Highly unlikely. Life At Ten by 3 lengths. Maybe I'll get 9 to 5.

Jamey in 1973:

If he can't beat Angle Light, how is your over-hyped Beatle-mania boy going to do against Sham?

[thaskalos]

Jamey in 1973:

If he can't beat Angle Light, how is your over-hyped Beatle-mania boy going to do against Sham?Nooo...

I am fairly certain that Jamey was born in 1977...which is hardly an excuse, of course...

[eastie]

Yeah, that's me. Afraid to give my opinion.

Have you ever been right about anything?


he might be a lot of things, but a mugwump he ain 't. i'm a Zenyatta man, but RA coming home in 29 1/5 in last years preakness after her trip makes it the race of the year. She won't need her best to beat those fillies on Sunday. She will need her best when she takes on the Champ, it won't be good enough to win, but it will make for an awesome race to watch.

[Grits]

I'm sure there are plenty of owners out there wishing they owned the "poor horse is shot" Rachel A.

Btw, do people make these kind of statements to wind people up or is it just a lack of knowledge showing through??

LOLOLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLL:lol:

CharlieD, honey, its takes more than this to wind me up. Jamey didn't. I was letting him know . . . . I just don't think he's the brightest bulb in the room.

[gm10]

I had her second last her best, but it still wouldn't beat Rachel's CD race.

As for the 1/5, I just don't have much interest betting races with two standouts that will be overbet. We can't lay horses here so I won't pretend to have the expertise needed to take bets.

I know you can't, it was only hypothetical. Sadly even if she's 1/5 in the US, Betfair bettors will be less sentimental and I suspect the price will be closer to 2/5 or 1/2. Still a lay, though.

[joanied]

I can't imagine any of the other fillies in the PE will finish any where near the top two...
and I haven't seen anyone yet bash this field...a race like the PE and we have two standouts, and just like Zenyatta's competition...not much else....how come no one is saying anything about the quality of this race? I am kind od disappointed that no one else wants to show up and face Rachel & Life at Ten...
anyway...I can't wait...the stretch run should be extremely exciting...Rachel & Life at ten going head to head...and Rachel gets in the winners circle:jump: :ThmbUp:

[46zilzal]

anyway...I can't wait...the stretch run should be extremely exciting...Rachel & Life at ten going head to head...and Rachel gets in the winners circle:
If these two are close down the lane, I would only bet Rachel to PLACE

[delayjf]

The interesting thing for me is to see how she handles 1 1/4, personally I think shes vunerable. However she could win by default if Life At Ten doesn't show for whatever reason.

I don't think it's any secret that a match up with Zenyatta in the BC classic is at stake. If RA performs well then the race is on, if she gets beat or is otherwise unimpressive, she will be bound for the distaff.

[the little guy]

he might be a lot of things, but a mugwump he ain 't. i'm a Zenyatta man, but RA coming home in 29 1/5 in last years preakness after her trip makes it the race of the year. She won't need her best to beat those fillies on Sunday. She will need her best when she takes on the Champ, it won't be good enough to win, but it will make for an awesome race to watch.


Forgetting about everything else.....Rachel is the Champ....like it or not.

[Charlie D]

The interesting thing for me is to see how she handles 1 1/4, personally I think shes vunerable. However she could win by default if Life At Ten doesn't show for whatever reason.

I don't think it's any secret that a match up with Zenyatta in the BC classic is at stake. If RA performs well then the race is on, if she gets beat or is otherwise unimpressive, she will be bound for the distaff.


Any reason other than Calvin not being able to control her Early speed to suggest 10 panels is beyond her???

[tucker6]

Any reason other than Calvin not being able to control her Early speed to suggest 10 panels is beyond her???
No. It's a fantasy argument against Rachel. She won the Preakness against males going 110 yards less, and would have gotten the victory if longer. There's no shred of evidence to support the claim, but just like UFO's, only the kooks seem to see it. Rational people need not apply.

[joanied]

If these two are close down the lane, I would only bet Rachel to PLACE

First of all, zil...I wouldn't BET this race anyway...some races are just meant to enjoy...I guess you might take a chance and plunk down a few bucks on the longest shot in the field...
but, if RA & LaT go head to head in the stretch...I'll take Rachel to win:)

[Charlie D]

No. It's a fantasy argument against Rachel. She won the Preakness against males going 110 yards less, and would have gotten the victory if longer. There's no shred of evidence to support the claim, but just like UFO's, only the kooks seem to see it. Rational people need not apply.


Not sure i'd put delayjf in the kook catergory tucker. The RA/Zen fanatics are maybe in that catergory though. :)

[Hanover1]

Considering the apparent lack of many competitors in this one, only shot they got to beat her is to let her go early and press her on the backside, but I suspect noone will step up. Now if they hook on the backside (favorites), its on.....

[DeanT]

No. It's a fantasy argument against Rachel. She won the Preakness against males going 110 yards less, and would have gotten the victory if longer. There's no shred of evidence to support the claim, but just like UFO's, only the kooks seem to see it. Rational people need not apply.

Steve A I would consider rational and not a kook. It's an honest question, and it should be (like any other horse trying something for the first time) reflected in an odds line.

“I think it's time,” Asmussen told the NY Daily News earlier this week when asked about her ability to handle the extra distance. “It's still a big question and Sunday’s the best time to answer it."

[tucker6]

Not sure i'd put delayjf in the kook catergory tucker. The RA/Zen fanatics are maybe in that catergory though. :)Didn't mean to imply delayjf was a kook. I was speaking of the run-of-the-mill fanatics as you suggest. Your post made me think of it, but it was not directed at delayjf.

[Charlie D]

Didn't mean to imply delayjf was a kook. I was speaking of the run-of-the-mill fanatics as you suggest. Your post made me think of it, but it was not directed at delayjf.

Ah!! My mistake tucker.

[tucker6]

Steve A I would consider rational and not a kook. It's an honest question, and it should be (like any other horse trying something for the first time) reflected in an odds line.I think Steve is just lowering expectations, as he should. I don't think he'd enter a 10F race if he didn't think she had the goods. Kinda like a guy that pans a horse walking by as he's handing a teller a $20 to bet the horse to win.

I take all trainer comments with many grains of salt.

[tucker6]

Ah!! My mistake tucker.No, it was my mistake, and you correctly corrected me. I should have added qualifiers. All is well.:)

[cj]

The whole she can't go 1 1/4 miles thing is ridiculous. Do people forget about the Oaks and the Mother Goose, let alone the Preakness? She beat G1 females by a pole going 9f twice.

Now, sure, it would be tougher against older males, but isn't that always the question? Any horse can get any distance, just depends on the competition. If she loses, it is because she isn't as good as last year, not because of some silly distance argument. She already showed she can run 10f against the type competition she faces Saturday, even if that wasn't the official distance of the race.

These kinds of silly beliefs are what make this game worthwhile. Rather than do the work, people just repeat and then bet beliefs with no basis in fact.

[Charlie D]

I just can't see why she can not sit in behind and pounce on LaT CJ. It's not as if she needs to lead or get into an Early duel with her or any one else.

[cj]

I just can't see why she can not sit in behind and pounce on LaT CJ. It's not as if she needs to lead or get into a duel with her.

Of course she could probably do that, but the safe route is to take it to her and hold off the other tomato cans late.

[Fager Fan]

I have LAT last figure's as 88/90
Rachel's as 90/87

flip of a coin if you ignore what RA was once capable of (Haskell 97, Mother Goose 98)

be honest .... if you had access to Betfair and RA was 1/5 ... would you not lay her? 1/5 is 83% chance of winning
I think she is a massive lay at anything under 4/5

Why do you even talk about this race from a betting perspective? It's not a good betting race. It's a good race to watch.

[Charlie D]

Of course she could probably do that, but the safe route is to take it to her and hold off the other tomato cans late.


She did that in Preakness, Woodward and almost got run down CJ


Despite winning those were not good rides from Calvin imo, but i can understand the i'm on best, catch me if you can thinking.

[cj]

She did that in Preakness, Woodward and almost got run down CJ


Despite winning those were not good rides from Calvin imo, but i can understand the i'm on best, catch me if you can thinking.

Those were against colts that were much faster early. In the Preakness, she drew the 14 post so I'm not sure there was much other choice. In the Woodward, she was drawn on the rail and I guess they didn't want to get stuck behind.

Life At Ten is certainly not of that caliber in my opinion.

[Charlie D]

I understand where your coming from CJ, but this race has to be treated as though it's Classic imho. She wants riding a little reserved early just like she will have to be in Classic to have any chance of beating Zen, Blame etc.

[gm10]

Why do you even talk about this race from a betting perspective? It's not a good betting race. It's a good race to watch.

Betting perspective is completely subjective. How do you know how another person handicaps? How do you know how I bet? In my opinion, this is a great betting race, both for pure betting and arbitraging.

[cj]

I understand where your coming from CJ, but this race has to be treated as though it's Classic imho.

She wants riding a little reserved early just like she will have to be in Classic to have any chance of beating Zen, Blame etc.

I don't think she is going in the Classic, but who knows?

When she wins the Distaff and Z loses the Classic, she'll win the top Distaffer Eclipse! (if she can beat Blind Luck that is!)

[Charlie D]

Surely not going to Duck Zen if she wins this CJ

[cj]

Surely not going to Duck Zen if she wins this CJ

I don't know if it would be ducking. Zenyatta skipping the Personal Ensign is ducking. Either horse not going in the Classic is reasonable in my opinion, though Z's pathetic schedule has probably made it a must now for the connections.

[Hanover1]

RA would appear to have the upper hand if a swift victory this weekend develops. So much speculation out there regarding the handling/condition of Z right now (really nothing new except Smiths comments regarding her pulling up, and walking the shed a week after last out.) that any move other than a BCC entry would really wake up the duck fans. And this goes for BOTH mares.

[Charlie D]

If she does win Personal Ensign and goes elswhere come Classic time, i'll be a very, very disappointed US racing fan

[gm10]

I don't know if it would be ducking. Zenyatta skipping the Personal Ensign is ducking. Either horse not going in the Classic is reasonable in my opinion, though Z's pathetic schedule has probably made it a must now for the connections.

:D

Please tell me you're not serious. She didn't show up at Santa Anita and Oaklawn, she has disputed zero grade 1's this year but still managed to lose twice. She isn't even eligible for the Distaff at this point. If Zenyatta has to beat every horse that qualifies under these criteria, she'll be racing twice a week.

[Charlie D]

This race is right up Zens street gm10, so i can understand the "ducking" comment from CJ

[cj]

:D

Please tell me you're not serious. She didn't show up at Santa Anita and Oaklawn, she has disputed zero grade 1's this year but still managed to lose twice. She isn't even eligible for the Distaff at this point. If Zenyatta has to beat every horse that qualifies under these criteria, she'll be racing twice a week.

Well, as much as you would like to do so, you can't just skip last year. She is the reigning Horse of the Year. They didn't care a lick about losing those first two races. It was actually pretty predictable since there was no undefeated record to protect and the fact Assmussen is not exactly a good layoff trainer.

It has nothing to do with who Zenyatta has to beat. There really is no reason not to run in the Personal Ensign. It is the perfect conditions for Zenyatta (allegedly), the perfect prep for a dirt start in the BC, perfect in every way except that she would probably get beat...oh the horror! We wouldn't want to actually challenge her.

[Hanover1]

Well, as much as you would like to do so, you can't just skip last year. She is the reigning Horse of the Year. They didn't care a lick about losing those first two races. It was actually pretty predictable since there was no undefeated record to protect and the fact Assmussen is not exactly a good layoff trainer.

It has nothing to do with who Zenyatta has to beat. There really is no reason not to run in the Personal Ensign. It is the perfect conditions for Zenyatta (allegedly), the perfect prep for a dirt start in the BC, perfect in every way except that she would probably get beat...oh the horror! We wouldn't want to actually challenge her.

Lots of truth here, excepting many unknown factors.

[gm10]

This race is right up Zens street gm10, so i can understand the "ducking" comment from CJ

A lot of races are up her street, judging by her PP's.

Some people here make it sound like Sheriffs should be begging for an audience with the pope when it comes to racing against RA.

[cj]

A lot of races are up her street, judging by her PP's.

Some people here make it sound like Sheriffs should be begging for an audience with the pope when it comes to racing against RA.


...and others act like staying in SoCal and racing claimers on a surface that is irrelevant in 2010 is the ultimate test of greatness.

[gm10]

Well, as much as you would like to do so, you can't just skip last year. She is the reigning Horse of the Year. They didn't care a lick about losing those first two races. It was actually pretty predictable since there was no undefeated record to protect and the fact Assmussen is not exactly a good layoff trainer.

It has nothing to do with who Zenyatta has to beat. There really is no reason not to run in the Personal Ensign. It is the perfect conditions for Zenyatta (allegedly), the perfect prep for a dirt start in the BC, perfect in every way except that she would probably get beat...oh the horror! We wouldn't want to actually challenge her.

It is not up to you to determine what Zenyatta's perfect prep is (and I would fundamentally disagree that such a paceless, small field could ever serve as a perfect prep).

Sheriffs and nobody else is the trainer, he has stated his target and he seems to know what he's doing. Why didn't RA go to California last summer for a race at Del Mar? A perfect prep for the BC, surely? Or is that different?

Bottom line ... a) RA has it all to prove after a grade 1 drought of nearly a year and b) prepping on the synthetic before a big dirt race has proven to be a good strategy for many horses by now.

As a fan you might well be disappointed that she isn't there. But nobody is ducking anyone here. RA is strictly the one to catch in that contest.

[gm10]

...and others act like staying in SoCal and racing claimers on a surface that is irrelevant in 2010 is the ultimate test of greatness.

I think SoCal racing is underestimated by quite a few. They've had good horses recently.

[cj]

It is not up to you to determine what Zenyatta's perfect prep is (and I would fundamentally disagree that such a paceless, small field could ever serve as a perfect prep).

Sheriffs and nobody else is the trainer, he has stated his target and he seems to know what he's doing. Why didn't RA go to California last summer for a race at Del Mar? A perfect prep for the BC, surely? Or is that different?

Bottom line ... a) RA has it all to prove after a grade 1 drought of nearly a year and b) prepping on the synthetic before a big dirt race has proven to be a good strategy for many horses by now.

As a fan you might well be disappointed that she isn't there. But nobody is ducking anyone here. RA is strictly the one to catch in that contest.

So many senseless things in here I'm not sure where to start.

Gee, thanks for letting me know I'm not her trainer. I had no idea. I guess we should take everything said by trainers at face value...oh wait, Shirreffs has changed his tune about 20 times this year.

Paceless? The top two contenders in the Personal Ensign both run on or very near the front, yet it is paceless? Sure...

Why didn't RA go to Delmar to prep for the BC? That is so dumb I'll let it stand on its own merits.

[cj]

I think SoCal racing is underestimated by quite a few. They've had good horses recently.

Not in the Distaff division.

[gm10]

Not in the Distaff division.

I think that goes for the East Coast too, to a certain extent. Look at the Personal Ensign for example.
Also don't forget that a second stringer like Zardana actually beat RA this year. Sure sure she wasn't 100%, but it was still remarkable.

[Grits]

I think SoCal racing is underestimated by quite a few. They've had good horses recently.

WHERE is Ringkoebing?

Is it in this hemisphere?

[gm10]

So many senseless things in here I'm not sure where to start.

Gee, thanks for letting me know I'm not her trainer. I had no idea. I guess we should take everything said by trainers at face value...oh wait, Shirreffs has changed his tune about 20 times this year.

Irrelevant. He's the trainer, he decides. If RA entered the Classic and he didn't enter Zenyatta, he'd be ducking. Right now, he's just following his own schedule.

Paceless? The top two contenders in the Personal Ensign both run on or very near the front, yet it is paceless? Sure...

LAT is not a pace horse. She'll lead if nobody else is interested but that's about it. RA is not a pure pace horse either. Calling this a perfect prep for Zenyatta is stupid. It's putting her in one of the most difficult pace scenario's for no other reason than to PREP for the race that actually matters to connections.

Why didn't RA go to Delmar to prep for the BC? That is so dumb I'll let it stand on its own merits.

She didn't go. Why not? Because it wasn't in her schedule.
The PE isn't in Zenyatta's schedule. Same thing, one standard.

[gm10]

WHERE is Ringkoebing?

Is it in this hemisphere?

it's in Denmark
I'm actually going there in a few weeks
a very peaceful place - Danish hygge

[bisket]

this will probably be the first time i've ever bet against her. the post draw didn't do her any favors in this race. i think there's a decent chance she's gonna lose tomorrow. although i haven't decided who i'm gonna play to beat her just yet. if the race goes like i think it will she won't run one of her best races.

[cj]

Irrelevant. He's the trainer, he decides. If RA entered the Classic and he didn't enter Zenyatta, he'd be ducking. Right now, he's just following his own schedule.



LAT is not a pace horse. She'll lead if nobody else is interested but that's about it. RA is not a pure pace horse either. Calling this a perfect prep for Zenyatta is stupid. It's putting her in one of the most difficult pace scenario's for no other reason than to PREP for the race that actually matters to connections.



She didn't go. Why not? Because it wasn't in her schedule.
The PE isn't in Zenyatta's schedule. Same thing, one standard.

Your posts remind of that movie...what is it called...oh yeah, Dumb and Dumber.

I thought the greatness of Zenyatta was because of how she overcomes completely paceless races? Surely you can't think the PE will have less pace than many of her synthetic races.

Life At Ten has been 1st or 2nd at the first call in every route race this year. If she isn't there again Sunday, her chances are nil.

Why would RA prep for a race she was never going to run in. I hate to do it, but time for this again:

http://www.pacefigures.com/images/z.jpg

[delayjf]

Any reason other than Calvin not being able to control her Early speed to suggest 10 panels is beyond her???

I know not all agree, but imo Mine that Bird runs her down with another 1/16 of a mile. And I realize Macho Again is a grade 1 winner, but nobody is going to make an argument that he is or was a top handicap horse last year. Neither horse had done anything since to indicate they belong in the upper eschelons of the handicap division.

I also suspect the RA camp has reservations as to her ability at 11/4 - which was a factor in running her in the Woodward and not the Travers last year - again, just my opinion.

RA reminds me of a female version of Bernadini - who also looked unbeatable at 9 furlongs.

This race makes perfect sence for RA - the connections want to test her at 10 furlongs before taking on Z and the boys in the classic. But one race, even if she wins, may not necessarily be definative. If RA wins with a below par (for her) figure, then in my mind her ability at 10 furlongs will still be in question. For me to be convince that she can handle 1 1/4 she needs to run about the same figures she runs at the shorter routes.

We shall see.

[eastie]

Forgetting about everything else.....Rachel is the Champ....like it or not.


I reiterate ....If you want to be the champ, you have to BEAT the champ Zenyatta has beaten everyone they've put in front of her. Rachel has not. I'll bet you dinner at Rao's if Zen doesn 't whip Rachel when they run on Dirt. Zenyatta's best surface. Loser has to also chug a pint from the big red spring.

[Dahoss9698]

I reiterate ....If you want to be the champ, you have to BEAT the champ Zenyatta has beaten everyone they've put in front of her. Rachel has not. I'll bet you dinner at Rao's if Zen doesn 't whip Rachel when they run on Dirt. Zenyatta's best surface. Loser has to also chug a pint from the big red spring.

More brilliance...:rolleyes:

[Charlie D]

Well, i've scanned PP, watched RA's last four and come to conclusion she has to be opposed here.

[Jasonm921]

I reiterate ....If you want to be the champ, you have to BEAT the champ Zenyatta has beaten everyone they've put in front of her. Rachel has not. I'll bet you dinner at Rao's if Zen doesn 't whip Rachel when they run on Dirt. Zenyatta's best surface. Loser has to also chug a pint from the big red spring.

Zenyatta is the champ of nothing. Rachel is the reigning Horse of the Year. This fallacy of Zenyatta's preferred surface being dirt is a joke. They wont ship her anywhere. She one a race called the Breeder's Cup Classic which was nothing of the kind. That is like taking the Hirsch Turf Classic and calling it the Jockey Club Gold Cup for a year. Come back to reality please. If you want to see real competition look no further than Sunday. Now I know Life At Ten can't compare to St. Trinians :lol: but we will watch and enjoy a real good old fashioned horse race.

[DeanT]

Well, i've scanned PP, watched RA's last four and come to conclusion she has to be opposed here.

Why?

[Charlie D]

Why?


Not impressed by Lady Secret performance. I think she should have waved goodbye to second off those fractions, but she wasn't really on Top until late. The race against Unrivaled Belle shows she is vulnerable to a decent one. Life At Ten looks decent going by last three. Unknown of 10 panels and RA odds of 2-5


Thats enough for me bud.

[gm10]

Your posts remind of that movie...what is it called...oh yeah, Dumb and Dumber.

No need for insults please, mr Moderator.

I thought the greatness of Zenyatta was because of how she overcomes completely paceless races? Surely you can't think the PE will have less pace than many of her synthetic races.

Why would that be her greatness? Who told you that? It's a remarkable feature of hers, but it's her record that tells me the story.


Life At Ten has been 1st or 2nd at the first call in every route race this year. If she isn't there again Sunday, her chances are nil.

And do you really think she'd take up that role if she had Zenyatta sitting behind her? I can't believe what you try telling me sometimes.

I don't think that trying to beat the caliber of Life At Ten and Rachel Alexandra under these circumstances, just for the sake of prepping a deep closer, is ever going to be a smart training strategy, but I guess we have to agree to disagree.

[tucker6]

Why would that be her greatness? Who told you that? It's a remarkable feature of hers, but it's her record that tells me the story.

So, Peppers Pride is in your "great" category??

[eastie]

Zenyatta is the champ of nothing. Rachel is the reigning Horse of the Year. This fallacy of Zenyatta's preferred surface being dirt is a joke. They wont ship her anywhere. She one a race called the Breeder's Cup Classic which was nothing of the kind. That is like taking the Hirsch Turf Classic and calling it the Jockey Club Gold Cup for a year. Come back to reality please. If you want to see real competition look no further than Sunday. Now I know Life At Ten can't compare to St. Trinians :lol: but we will watch and enjoy a real good old fashioned horse race.

She "one" the Classic, which is the biggest race, against males. And the 2 Grade I races she ran on dirt, she galloped. Maybe you should grab your camera and go take some pictures of the Queen. Seeing is believing. She'd be odds on today if she were in the Personal Ensign. Too bad the connections don't understand that if you have a horse like Zenyatta, you run her at the Spa. Any idiot knows that, even Duh Hoss.

[Jasonm921]

She "one" the Classic, which is the biggest race, against males. And the 2 Grade I races she ran on dirt, she galloped. Maybe you should grab your camera and go take some pictures of the Queen. Seeing is believing. She'd be odds on today if she were in the Personal Ensign. Too bad the connections don't understand that if you have a horse like Zenyatta, you run her at the Spa. Any idiot knows that, even Duh Hoss.

Got me on the "One"...but realize that the Classic was not the "Classic".

[gm10]

So, Peppers Pride is in your "great" category??

Anyone else getting bored of that moronic analogy?

Plus, I didn't bring her 'greatness' into this, it was CJ. It's got nothing to do with this topic.

[tucker6]

Anyone else getting bored of that moronic analogy?

Plus, I didn't bring her 'greatness' into this, it was CJ. It's got nothing to do with this topic.You equated record to greatness. Read your own post. If so, then it doesn't take any time to equate Pepper's Pride to greatness, and thus Pepper's Pride to Zenyatta. I know you don't want to hear it, but Zenyatta's career most closely resembles that of Pepper's Pride than ANY horse ever considered great. Prove that statement incorrect.

[Dahoss9698]

She "one" the Classic, which is the biggest race, against males. And the 2 Grade I races she ran on dirt, she galloped. Maybe you should grab your camera and go take some pictures of the Queen. Seeing is believing. She'd be odds on today if she were in the Personal Ensign. Too bad the connections don't understand that if you have a horse like Zenyatta, you run her at the Spa. Any idiot knows that, even Duh Hoss.

It's like reading the thoughts of a slow 6 year old.

[FenceBored]

Anyone else getting bored of that moronic analogy?

Plus, I didn't bring her 'greatness' into this, it was CJ. It's got nothing to do with this topic.

I get bored with people who don't seem to be able to grasp why it keeps getting used.

[eastie]

It's like reading the thoughts of a slow 6 year old.


thanks, it's usually that of a 4 year old. who do you like today hot shot ?

[Dahoss9698]

thanks, it's usually that of a 4 year old. who do you like today hot shot ?

If you are asking about the Travers I'm going to try and get live to Ice Box, First Dude, Fly Down and Afleet Express in the pick 4. Maybe a win bet on Ice Box.

[thaskalos]

You equated record to greatness. Read your own post. If so, then it doesn't take any time to equate Pepper's Pride to greatness, and thus Pepper's Pride to Zenyatta. I know you don't want to hear it, but Zenyatta's career most closely resembles that of Pepper's Pride than ANY horse ever considered great. Prove that statement incorrect.We cannot say that we have "truly considered" a horse's career, unless we look at the RACES the horse has run in, along with the degree of success therein.

Peppers Pride ran exclusively against New Mexico breds, and never ventured longer than a mile.

I agree that her level of consistency was phenomenal...but in Zenyatta, we have the same level of consistency...at the Grade 1 level - debatable though that might be.

To think, that the records of these 2 horses are comparable, is insane IMO.

But I bet you already know that...

[tucker6]

We cannot say that we have "truly considered" a horse's career, unless we look at the RACES the horse has run in, along with the degree of success therein.

Peppers Pride ran exclusively against New Mexico breds, and never ventured longer than a mile.

I agree that her level of consistency was phenomenal...but in Zenyatta, we have the same level of consistency...at the Grade 1 level - debatable though that might be.

To think, that the records of these 2 horses are comparable, is insane IMO.

But I bet you already know that...What I know is that some here refuse to admit that Zenyatta has been handled to a degree that has tarnished her legacy. Spare me the Grade 1 record. Her competition (I know she can't pick her competition) leaves a lot to be desired and makes a mockery of the G1 status afforded several of her races.

And for the record, I'm not comparing Zenyatta to Pepper's Pride. I'm simply stating that Zenyatta's career resembles Pepper's Pride career rather than that of any other horse considered great. I'm just asking for you or anyone else to prove that statement incorrect. There's a reason both mares were undefeated, and it wasn't/isn't because they're great in the historical sense of the word. They were both managed, and I use that word in the most negative of implications.

[thaskalos]

What I know is that some here refuse to admit that Zenyatta has been handled to a degree that has tarnished her legacy. Spare me the Grade 1 record. Her competition (I know she can't pick her competition) leaves a lot to be desired and makes a mockery of the G1 status afforded several of her races.

And for the record, I'm not comparing Zenyatta to Pepper's Pride. I'm simply stating that Zenyatta's career resembles Pepper's Pride career rather than that of any other horse considered great. I'm just asking for you or anyone else to prove that statement incorrect. There's a reason both mares were undefeated, and it wasn't/isn't because they're great in the historical sense of the word. They were both managed, and I use that word in the most negative of implications.Yes, I agree...Peppers Pride's career resembles that of Zenyatta's.

In fact...if you exclude the Grade 1 victories, the BC victories - including the Classic against the "boys", and the 7 million in earnings...their careers would be identical.

PS...Isn't it amusing that it took Zenyatta, to point out to us "the mockery of the Grade 1 status"? In the pre-Zenyatta era...ALL grade 1 races seemed to command at least a small amount of respect...

[PaceAdvantage]

Grade 1s on synthetic take things to an even lower low...

I think everyone has forgotten they are running the Pacific Classic today...and rightfully so....

I remember the days when I would be looking forward to both the Hollywood Gold Cup and Pacific Classic...nowadays, it's nothing but a snooze fest... :sleeping:

Not a bias against west coast, but a bias against minor league racing masquerading as the majors...

My second favorite horse of all time after Holy Bull? Sunday Silence.

Tell me again I have east coast bias... :lol:

[cj]

Not a bias against west coast, but a bias against minor league racing masquerading as the majors...



And that is the whole story in a nutshell.

[tucker6]

Yes, I agree...Peppers Pride's career resembles that of Zenyatta's.

In fact...if you exclude the Grade 1 victories, the BC victories - including the Classic against the "boys", and the 7 million in earnings...their careers would be identical.

PS...Isn't it amusing that it took Zenyatta, to point out to us "the mockery of the Grade 1 status"? In the pre-Zenyatta era...ALL grade 1 races seemed to command a certain amount of respect...Only zealots consider her race against the boys on poly historically meaningful. Most consider it a clear case of a course favoring one horse. Who would likely win a 10F race between a 10F horse and a sprinter? Who would likely win a race in the mud between a mudder and a horse who's never raced in muddy conditions? Who would likely win a BC Classic between a horse that races continuously on poly and those who only met the surface a few days prior?

Those what-ifs look awfully similar don't they?

[46zilzal]

Only zealots consider her race against the boys on poly meaningful. Most consider it a clear case of a course favoring one horse. Who would likely win a 10F race between a 10F horse and a sprinter? Who would likely win a race in the mud between a mudder and a horse who's never raced in muddy conditions? Who would likely win a BC Classic between a horse that races continuously on poly and those who only met the surface a few days prior?

The confirmation bias is surely alive and well

[Charlie D]

Hey guys. Aint this thread about Personal Ensign at Spa on Sunday ;)

[tucker6]

Hey guys. Aint this thread about Personal Ensign at Spa on Sunday ;)You are correct. Unfortunately, every time a Rachel thread pops up, a Zenyatta rash breaks out.

[joanied]

Hey guys. Aint this thread about Personal Ensign at Spa on Sunday ;)

I thought it was, Charlie D...
it's a two horse race... Rachel will prevail :jump:

[thaskalos]

:sleeping:

Tell me again I have east coast bias... :lol:Who...ME?

I have never said that you have an east coast bias.

I have you labeled as a hater of anything "synthetic"...and I think that's a fair position to hold.

It's just a shame that a horse like Zenyatta ever got caught up, in this "mess" of a racing surface...

[PaceAdvantage]

I have you labeled as a hater of anything "synthetic"...and I think that's a fair position to hold.not a hater...I've stated before that Keeneland tends to be one of my more profitable meetings of the year as a bettor. I just find it very difficult (as a fan of the sport) to put much stock into any race run over artificial surfaces.

[Cratos]

The Personal Ensign is Rachel’s race to lose (and I think she will). This race in terms of its content of horses isn’t better or worse than the race which Zenyatta has run in and maybe worse.

Life At Ten look to be Rachel’s chief competitor, but as of November 2009 at 4yos she had only won 1 of 8 lifetime starts and she was much travelled on the East Coast. Additionally she got a G2 win at Delaware in a pedestrian time for the 1 ¼ mile distance
.
The horse that I like in this race is Classofsixtythree and only because she appears to be asking for a distance, but I don’t think she has the class to sustain her potential.

Therefore I will keep my “wooden nickels” in my pocket.

[PaceAdvantage]

This race in terms of its content of horses isn’t better or worse than the race which Zenyatta has run in and maybe worse.really? How about Zenyatta's last "Grade 1" race?

The Personal Ensign has one other Grade 1 winner in it besides Rachel, thus the Personal Ensign is automatically twice as much quality as the Clement Hirsch.

Plus you have Miss Singhsix who is a Grade 3 winner...an infinitely BETTER race than the Clement Hirsch....

[gm10]

And that is the whole story in a nutshell.

The best 3yo filly is from California. The best mare is from California. The best 3yo colt is from California.

That is the story in a nutshell.

[PaceAdvantage]

The best 3yo filly is from California. The best mare is from California. The best 3yo colt is from California.

That is the story in a nutshell.The filly and the colt came to prominence on the dirt. And the best mare is still in question. That's the story in a nutshell.

[depalma113]

The filly and the colt came to prominence on the dirt. And the best mare is still in question. That's the story in a nutshell.

Rachel's still a filly.

[OntheRail]

Yes, I agree...Peppers Pride's career resembles that of Zenyatta's.

In fact...if you exclude the Grade 1 victories, the BC victories - including the Classic against the "boys", and the 7 million in earnings...their careers would be identical.

PS...Isn't it amusing that it took Zenyatta, to point out to us "the mockery of the Grade 1 status"? In the pre-Zenyatta era...ALL grade 1 races seemed to command at least a small amount of respect...
Well Synthetics in CA and Zenyatta in CA arose at the same time... the dynamics on the West Coast Grade 1's change. At least SA will bring about the conversion back to dirt in the west. To bad it will be after the Zenyatta Area.

So an * may be linked to Zenyatta... and that's the falt of Moss and Sheriffs.


As for the PE I will again predict Rachel ahead at the wire. In all her races this year they ran her off the rail in the 3-4 path so in each race they were working her for a greater distance. :jump:

[CincyHorseplayer]

What about the Jockey Club Gold Cup before the BC?We deserve to at least see the 2 girls meet more than once or the racing industry has straight up robbed and raped us,bruised and scraped us.If not what is the ideal race these 2 meet beforehand?

[PaceAdvantage]

Rachel's still a filly.He was referring to Zenyatta. He termed her the best mare. Whether she actually is the best or not this year is still in question.

But I get your point.

[gm10]

Well Synthetics in CA and Zenyatta in CA arose at the same time... the dynamics on the West Coast Grade 1's change. At least SA will bring about the conversion back to dirt in the west. To bad it will be after the Zenyatta Area.

So an * may be linked to Zenyatta... and that's the falt of Moss and Sheriffs.


As for the PE I will again predict Rachel ahead at the wire. In all her races this year they ran her off the rail in the 3-4 path so in each race they were working her for a greater distance. :jump:

If the track runs like yesterday, the horse on the rail wins.
Talk about a biased surface. How are you supposed to find the strongest animal in the race if the rail is much quicker than the other lanes?

Quite impressed by Castellano, though. He rode the perfect race, briefly leaving the rail to go by the faltering pace setter, and then back to it as soon as he could. No doubt Fly Down would have won if there hadn't been a bias. (my money was on Afleet - I got lucky).

[depalma113]

He was referring to Zenyatta. He termed her the best mare. Whether she actually is the best or not this year is still in question.

But I get your point.

Yeah I know, I was trying to make a little sarcastic joke, but it just doesn't read with the same intent.

[Charlie D]

If the track runs like yesterday, the horse on the rail wins.
Talk about a biased surface. How are you supposed to find the strongest animal in the race if the rail is much quicker than the other lanes?

Quite impressed by Castellano, though. He rode the perfect race, briefly leaving the rail to go by the faltering pace setter, and then back to it as soon as he could. No doubt Fly Down would have won if there hadn't been a bias. (my money was on Afleet - I got lucky).



If track behaves like it does when i wactch (most days, including yesterday) best horse will win.

[Charlie D]

best horse will win.

Sorry that needs a correction. It shouldd be, The horse best suited by the race dynamics or the Match Up will win. Finish second, finish third and so on.


Hope this helps.

[Dahoss9698]

If the track runs like yesterday, the horse on the rail wins.
Talk about a biased surface. How are you supposed to find the strongest animal in the race if the rail is much quicker than the other lanes?

Quite impressed by Castellano, though. He rode the perfect race, briefly leaving the rail to go by the faltering pace setter, and then back to it as soon as he could. No doubt Fly Down would have won if there hadn't been a bias. (my money was on Afleet - I got lucky).

Great redboard!

[PhantomOnTour]

Only way to play this race imo is to hope that Miss Singhsix can pick up Life At Ten after Rachel drops her. Even that isn't very likely. Life At Ten is a nice mare but I think Rachel gets away from her.

There; now that you've been dosed with the obvious, imo, you may get back to your coffee. ;)

[OntheRail]

If the track runs like yesterday, the horse on the rail wins.
Talk about a biased surface. How are you supposed to find the strongest animal in the race if the rail is much quicker than the other lanes?

I did not say they would run this race wide as they have in her other starts this year. I'm looking for a Bo-Rail ground saving trip today. ;)

[joanied]

I did not say they would run this race wide as they have in her other starts this year. I'm looking for a Bo-Rail ground saving trip today. ;)

Me too:jump:

[Stevie Belmont]

Personal Ensign Showdown--RA & Life At Ten--No TV, No Stream, No Audio. And only a handful of people were able to watch The Travers.

If you have TVG or HRTV you will see it. The rest see nothing unless you have an online account.

NTRA streamed the Pac Classic yesterday, but c'mon, they can't stream this, or the Travers?

What a joke!

[DeanT]

Personal Ensign Showdown--RA & Life At Ten--No TV, No Stream, No Audio. And only a handful of people were able to watch The Travers.

If you have TVG or HRTV you will see it. The rest see nothing unless you have an online account.

NTRA streamed the Pac Classic yesterday, but c'mon, they can't stream this, or the Travers?

What a joke!

Isnt that a rule in NYS or something (not showing a race to outside residents live)?

[tucker6]

Isnt that a rule in NYS or something (not showing a race to outside residents live)?What economic benefit comes to NYS by doing that??

[Charlie D]

Personal Ensign Showdown--RA & Life At Ten--No TV, No Stream, No Audio. And only a handful of people were able to watch The Travers.

If you have TVG or HRTV you will see it. The rest see nothing unless you have an online account.

NTRA streamed the Pac Classic yesterday, but c'mon, they can't stream this, or the Travers?

What a joke!


It's NOT a fantastic way to promote a product or a fantastic way to generate interest in a product. "Sharp minds" are in short supply where racing is concerned imho.

[sonnyp]

Isnt that a rule in NYS or something (not showing a race to outside residents live)?


no such rule. it would be shown live if one of the networks thought there was an audience and could muster advertisement revenue.


i mentioned in another thread that espn is showing 8 live highschool football games (which i happen to enjoy) and the little league world series this weekend but no travers, personal ensign or pacific classic .

[Grits]

i mentioned in another thread that espn is showing 8 live highschool football games (which i happen to enjoy) and the little league world series this weekend but no travers, personal ensign or pacific classic .

No problem with little league or high school football, I assure you. But, THIS is truly, truly pathetic!!!

[tucker6]

No problem with little league or high school football, I assure you. But, THIS is truly, truly pathetic!!!
The problem with horse racing is that there are 200 voices at any one time that speak on behalf of the sport. There is no focus. That's why racing needs a commissioner with a marketing dept and daily pressers. TV doesn't come to you. You go to TV and tell them why they should show you more often.

I'll tell you what, someone went to ESPN and pitched a good economic story for the showing of all those HS games. Why isn't someone doing that for racing.

[PaceAdvantage]

The problem with horse racing is that there are 200 voices at any one time that speak on behalf of the sport. There is no focus. That's why racing needs a commissioner with a marketing dept and daily pressers. TV doesn't come to you. You go to TV and tell them why they should show you more often.

I'll tell you what, someone went to ESPN and pitched a good economic story for the showing of all those HS games. Why isn't someone doing that for racing.Probably because racing isn't being run by those with a true passion for the game.

[46zilzal]

Probably because racing isn't being run by those with a true passion for the game.
True it is being taken over by idiot MBA's who haven't a clue what the game is all about.

RACE OF THE YEAR? This isn't even the race of the WEEK

[tucker6]

True it is being taken over by idiot MBA's who haven't a clue what the game is all about.

RACE OF THE YEAR? This isn't even the race of the WEEKI hear you, but that seems overly simplistic. Marketing is a process, not an occasional big race. Sending most big names to the breeding shed after a year in the headlines doesn't help either.

[sonnyp]

The problem with horse racing is that there are 200 voices at any one time that speak on behalf of the sport. There is no focus. That's why racing needs a commissioner with a marketing dept and daily pressers. TV doesn't come to you. You go to TV and tell them why they should show you more often.

I'll tell you what, someone went to ESPN and pitched a good economic story for the showing of all those HS games. Why isn't someone doing that for racing.



don't forget horseracing offers a very "fragile" product. it takes a lot to set up a telecast in terms of planning and logistics.

how would you like to be the t v people in position to telecast z's last race. personnel and equipment in place.....advertising sold....audience in position and less than an hour before post sherrifs and company cant commit to a start !!! given the above.....if she scratched, what's left for t v ? if RA comes down with a temp this am what then ?

[46zilzal]

I hear you, but that seems overly simplistic. Marketing is a process, not an occasional big race. Sending most big names to the breeding shed after a year in the headlines doesn't help either.
I know, FOR A FACT, that three courses, right now, are being run, from top to bottom, by people with little to no experience in the game and as subsidiaries of large conglomerate casino operations.

The curse of the racino, is when you make a deal with the devil, the devil figures out that the fixed overhead of the slots, etc., is your money maker and put much more effort into that arena.

It is sad that given the option of promoting both, they miss the boat and overload promotions for the casino.

[Stevie Belmont]

Yes there is. NYRA can't share it's audio or video live in NY. Correct me if I am wrong.

Something with the OTB's. They can stream the live video. Ridiculous.

Replays up a few minutes after each race.

Isnt that a rule in NYS or something (not showing a race to outside residents live)?

[Saratoga_Mike]

True it is being taken over by idiot MBA's who haven't a clue what the game is all about.

RACE OF THE YEAR? This isn't even the race of the WEEK

Do you honestly think tracks - or any business for that matter - would be run more successfully by medical doctors vs MBAs? Because you sure do seem to think you could do a better job. Here's my observation: MDs are great at practicing medicine. In general (note I said in general), MDs make lousy businessmen. Sorry Zilly.

[sonnyp]

Yes there is. NYRA can't share it's audio or video live in NY. Correct me if I am wrong.

Something with the OTB's. They can stream the live video. Ridiculous.

Replays up a few minutes after each race.

you're talkin for simulcast use on a going basis and we're talkin a network telecast like the belmont stakes or the whitney meant for general consumption.

[Stevie Belmont]

Zilly still thinks War Emblem was a closer? Ok.

Do you honestly think tracks - or any business for that matter - would be run more successfully by medical doctors vs MBAs? Because you sure do seem to think you could do a better job. Here's my observation: MDs are great at practicing medicine. In general (note I said in general), MDs make lousy businessmen. Sorry Zilly.

[Stevie Belmont]

How difficult would it be to stream it. A kid with a mac could probably do it. It's not that hard people.

you're talkin for simulcast use on a going basis and we're talkin a network telecast like the belmont stakes or the whitney meant for general consumption.

[thaskalos]

Do you honestly think tracks - or any business for that matter - would be run more successfully by medical doctors vs MBAs? Because you sure do seem to think you could do a better job. Here's my observation: MDs are great at practicing medicine. In general (note I said in general), MDs make lousy businessmen. Sorry Zilly.Who is it that "runs" this business now? Is there even such a thing as "The Horse Racing Industry"?...or is this just a term invented by the press, and us horseplayers on the message boards?

[Saratoga_Mike]

Who is it that "runs" this business now? Is there even such a thing as "The Horse Racing Industry"?...or is this just a term invented by the press, and us horseplayers on the message boards?

I have no idea how many people actually running tracks have MBAs. My guess is not a high percentage, but I'm guessing. Do I think tracks would be better off run by the likes of the Zillys of the world? No, I don't.

[DeanT]

(taken from another thread that I posted wrong to :rolleyes:)

It is always interesting when we see a race with some interest. This race has a few things of interest, and from a betting perspective it is pretty cool.

With uber popular horses like Z and Rach, trading overseas seems to start earlier. I think because there is a bit of an edge because so many newbies and racing fans will be overbetting them in the pools.

I am fascinated to see where the betting goes on the exchange. It is pretty rare to see any action this early. Currently there is cash lining up to lay Rachel at 3-5. The sharks seem to smell overbet blood.

When the tote board opens a couple of hours (less than that now I guess) she is sure to be 1-5 isnt she? That is a fairly big spread if so. Maybe we will see her at 3-5 and have LAT 8-5 or so, but I just cant see it. Does anyone think she will be close to 3-5 at off time?

[Charlie D]

Should i go on BF forum and tell everyone i think she is a Lay at odds on Dean?? :)

[gm10]

Should i go on BF forum and tell everyone i think she is a Lay at odds on Dean?? :)

... for the bridge jumpers -> 1/10 on the place.

[Charlie D]

The bettor thinks we have to take her on here gm10 at odds on. However, the racing fan is at adds with this and he is thinking GO RACHEL, GO RACHEL, GO RACHEL :D

[gm10]

The bettor thinks we have to take her on here gm10 at odds on. However, the racing fan is at adds with this and he is thinking GO RACHEL, GO RACHEL, GO RACHEL :D

BF customers (=non-American) won't really have any sentimental connection with her, they mainly want to make money in this race. There'll definitely be some sentimental money in the win pool, on the other hand.

[DeanT]

I think the oddsmaker had the ML odds line right on, and we will see 2-5 on her on the board. The public will hammer her.

But that has to be for the public, imo. Years ago in the Belmont Secretariat was 2-5ML and Sham was 5-2. That might have been "fair odds" but it certainly was not off odds (he was 1-9 I believe). This year we have Rach at 2-5 and LAT 5-2, the same as the Belmont. But I dont think anyone would think Rachel is an equal cinch as Big Red was.

I think the 2010 ML odds maker at NYRA is doing a pretty good job on this race.

[Charlie D]

Yep, i would agree. NYRA lineman (Eric Donovan i think) won't be far away in his prediction of how US public bet her Dean.

[my_nameaintearl]

I dont have a good feeling about this one for Rachel

[DeanT]

Carbon copy trading offshore as happened in the Vanity with that match race. I could not believe Zen traded at 4-5 in that one, and Rachel just hit 4-5 here.

The faders were wrong in the vanity. Let's see if they go 0 for 2.

[Tom]

Going at it early on.....47 112......cost her.
L@10 no match.

[46zilzal]

Jim Dandy's ghost is alive and well at Saratoga...There are other horses in the race guys!

[Bruiser1]

She's just not the same.....

[Tom]

Did you post any of them earlier that we missed?

[PaceAdvantage]

She's just not the same.....Whatever...

[my_nameaintearl]

She's just not the same.....

She is not built for that distance.

[cpitt84]

wow, what a shame.

this just goes to show how great zenyatta is with all her wins

[DeanT]

Classy fans at Saratoga. Disappointed, but they give the winner a round of applause.

[gm10]

Stunning.
What a rousing ride by Alan Garcia.

[BluegrassProf]

wow, what a shame.

this just goes to show how great zenyatta is with all her winsLess than two minutes 'til the first moronic Z post. Excellent time.

[cpitt84]

rachel just isn't built for that distance..so sad..

[bisket]

big difference between 1 3/16 and 1 1/4 mile...... i don't even think she has the points to be in the classic if its a full field. she'll be running with the fillies in november

[gm10]

Whatever...

Maybe give her a prep on the plastic before she goes to the Distaff.

[PaceAdvantage]

She is not built for that distance.She absolutely smoked the horse who WON at 10f last time out...but she's not built for the distance?

What happened to the horse that just won at that distance? Is she not built for the distance either?

[my_nameaintearl]

Less than two minutes 'til the first moronic Z post. Excellent time.


There was a Rachel Sucks thread immediately after the race that some idiot posted

[46zilzal]

2:04.49 hmmmmm

[BluegrassProf]

Finally, Jeff makes a spot-on observation: the winner didn't so much win as Rachel lost. As always, for the folks most likely to squawk after this show, all that matters is the win - absolutely ignorant of everything else.

Gotta love it. :D

Good race from all.

[redshift1]

No shame today pressured all the way in fast fractions and held on fairly well.

[Audioslavery]

My name is Calvin Borel and all I do is whip the living crap out of my horses.

Geez Calvin, she was tired as ever, I was bummed to see her lose but I guess this just means we'll see a great matchup with Blind Luck and Devil May Care in the Distaff.

I'd much rather see her race Zen, but 4 year old Rachel could not keep up with the males/Zen this year.

[Miss Disco]

As a RA fan, Calvin was really using the bat. I guess she is not a 1 mile & quarter mare. exciting race, kudos to the Phipps stable.

[Bruiser1]

She absolutely smoked the horse who WON at 10f last time out...but she's not built for the distance?

What happened to the horse that just won at that distance? Is she not built for the distance either?

Sure didn't appear to me that Rachel put up much a fight against a filly that couldn't win against NW2/allowance company in 4 of her last 5.

Your point is well taken, though it sure seems like RA (this year) is making stars out of previously good horses.

[Charlie D]

No shame today

Totally agree

I guess this just means we'll see a great matchup with Blind Luck and Devil May Care in the Distaff.



A race to look forward to.

[tzipi]

As a RA fan, Calvin was really using the bat. I guess she is not a 1 mile & quarter mare. exciting race, kudos to the Phipps stable.

So you lose at the wire through insane fractions at a 1 1/4 and that means you can't win at a 1/14. :rolleyes: .

So if they slowed down just a bit(if they were smart) and she won easily over Persistently,she would be a 1 1/4 horse? :rolleyes:

She ran the distance one time and lost at the wire through fast fractions. Miss Disco was every route champion undefeated?

[gm10]

Totally agree




A race to look forward to.

I doubt she'll be there. This was a weak race and she couldn't finish the job. It was a RA 2010 performance, which isn't exactly grade 1 level.

[BluegrassProf]

Sure didn't appear to me that Rachel put up much a fight against a filly that couldn't win against NW2/allowance company in 4 of her last 5.

Your point is well taken, though it sure seems like RA (this year) is making stars out of previously good horses.That's because you're looking at the race through a keyhole.

Please, everyone pay attention to this post...and I mean everyone:

RA locked horns with Life at Ten from the break. Life at Ten. Are we paying attention here? Speed duel from the gate with Life at Ten at 1 1/4. A closer comes in and snips them both, just after RA puts L@T away without a second look - by 10 1/4 lengths.

That was a great race; calls of "she's done" are silly as hell. Grow up, people.

[Charlie D]

I doubt she'll be there. This was a weak race and she couldn't finish the job. It was a RA 2010 performance, which isn't exactly grade 1 level.


If she were mine she'd be in Classic, but not running EP, but she is not mine, so i guess we'll have to wait and see what happens next.

[46zilzal]

Riders riders! It was not a match race....There were several horses behind you.....Get perspective. This happened with Conquistador Cielo/Aloma's Ruler and Gallant Fox/Whichone the famous 100/1 shot Jim Dandy

[Bruiser1]

Finally, Jeff makes a spot-on observation: the winner didn't so much win as Rachel lost. As always, for the folks most likely to squawk after this show, all that matters is the win - absolutely ignorant of everything else.

Gotta love it. :D

Good race from all.

Just watched the head-on...she was very tired by mid-stretch.

[tzipi]

Just watched the head-on...she was very tired by mid-stretch.

Yeah she was tired but any horse would be after running those fractions for a 1 1/4 race. Horrible job by the jocks.

[gm10]

If she were mine she'd be in Classic, but not running EP, but she is not mine, so i guess we'll have to wait and see what happens next.

I'm pretty sure she won't have earned enough points to get into that.

[BluegrassProf]

I can not wait for the fake Beyer for this---Mikki

PS----However Rachel is truly better than this training job.The substance is bad enough; no need to make tangible efforts to look like a nut.

Way to contribute, though. :ThmbUp:

[Stevie Belmont]

I knew Life At Ten could not run with Rachel Alexandra. She put her away, but she did not have enough to stay on for the mile and a quarter.

She was worn down by the winner.

Phipps Persistently wins the Personal Ensign.

And it was still a great race. One you will never forget.