What If ON TRACK Handle at Santa Anita Tripled?

[andymays]

A way forward for California Racing.

What if on track handle tripled and the takeout was only one half of what it is now? What would be wrong with that?

The leadership in California or should I say the lack thereof has decided that the only way forward is to raise the takeout. They’ve also decided that there’s nothing wrong with raising the takeout because everyone else had done the same thing. Handle is down but that’s not so bad because everyone else’s handle is down as well.

Can anyone tell me what kind of Leader strives for mediocrity? What kind of Leader strives to take the low road time and time again? If you answered the leadership in California racing you would be a winner.

It is obvious that the leadership in California Racing is out of solutions so here is just one of many. The solution I’m outlining will need to be tweaked I’m sure but there is no doubt in my mind that the on track handle at Santa Anita will go up anywhere from three to five times if you give this a shot. Places like Del Mar might double or triple. There is an optimum price point (rebate) for each track or satellite wagering facility. I don’t expect the leadership to jump into this without trying it for one heavily promoted week or weekend. Here goes nothing.

Everyone would like people to come to the track or satellite wagering facility but the truth that all things considered it’s much easier to stay home and bet. That’s great for companies like TVG/Betfair and others. That’s not so great for the tracks or the health of the game.

As an incentive, Santa Anita should offer a 50% rebate to people who attend the live races there. They would be issued a betting card and other details would have to be worked out but I am convinced that Horseplayers in California would drive three or four hours to spend a weekend at Santa Anita. I’m guessing you’re going to attract quite a few players with between five and ten thousand dollars in their pockets who might churn anywhere from ten thousand to fifty thousand over the course of a weekend. Bigger players will come as well. If on track handle triples then everyone wins. What’s wrong with that? I’m guessing the hotels and restaurants in the area will do pretty well too. What’s wrong with that?

If the game begins to grow again because playing the horses becomes a good bet again then what’s wrong with that?

[andymays]

Just to clarify my position what I mean is 50% of the normal takeout rate.

I don't think you could just lower on track takeout alone without having a separate pool.

I'm sure it's possible without having a separate pool but I doubt the current system can handle it without a significant upgrade.

[lamboguy]

i am all in favor in trippling the handle. a matter of face with a dirt surface i can see santa anita doing $50 million handles on saturdays. the cut in takeout would help handle but not necessarily purses or profits.


most of the problems that california racing has are not really just california problems, they are industry related problems that i can't see how lowering takeout would solve them. as you know, the racing business is out of control and being run haphazzardly. until that part of the equasion gets worked out, takeout or naked girls running around the track will not help matters on a permanent basis.

[andymays]

i am all in favor in trippling the handle. a matter of face with a dirt surface i can see santa anita doing $50 million handles on saturdays. the cut in takeout would help handle but not necessarily purses or profits.


most of the problems that california racing has are not really just california problems, they are industry related problems that i can't see how lowering takeout would solve them. as you know, the racing business is out of control and being run haphazzardly. until that part of the equasion gets worked out, takeout or naked girls running around the track will not help matters on a permanent basis.

Wouldn't a significant increase in handle of 3 to 5 times more than offset the rebate?

[lamboguy]

Wouldn't a significant increase in handle of 3 to 5 times more than offset the rebate?
of course it would.

the racetracks need new people. the way the game is today they scare people away from it. is takeout the problem? just a small part of it. the game does not regulate itself. it gets regulated by government employees that only care about their paychecks that they pick up on friday. its the perception that people are betting and canceling after the bell rings. its the problem where drug rules are only punishable by fines. its about to many unexplained form reversals. its about to many horses breaking down on the track. its about a constant group of people that lie to the public on a consistant basis. there is much more wrong, i can spend the next 9 hours typing at you and i would not even scratch the surface. like i said, without getting to the core of the game, nothing helps it.

[Robert Goren]

If you cut the handle in half, then the handle would have double to be revenue neutral. Would that happen, I think so. We won't know until somebody tries. Will somebody try it, probably not. The horse people are scared that it won't work and are content to die a slow death rather try something new and bold. They will fight it at every turn.

[andymays]

If you cut the handle in half, then the handle would have double to be revenue neutral. Would that happen, I think so. We won't know until somebody tries. Will somebody try it, probably not. The horse people are scared that it won't work and are content to die a slow death rather try something new and bold. They will fight it at every turn.

You mean takeout. I think it would have to more than double for it to work.

They would have to try it for a heavily promoted weekend. California players aren't elligible for any significant rebates right now so I'm sure it would work if given a try.

[Canadian]

If you cut the handle in half, then the handle would have double to be revenue neutral. Would that happen, I think so. We won't know until somebody tries. Will somebody try it, probably not. The horse people are scared that it won't work and are content to die a slow death rather try something new and bold. They will fight it at every turn.


It may be revenue neutral.... at first. But if that did happen and bettors would be that much happier..... people on the bubble with their ROI's at say 97% would suddenly be profitable.... and cronics like me might move into that 97% ROI category. The biggest thing IMO is to create that many more people that are long term profitable. I think when you can do that the new fans will come. Very oversimplified yes... put I don't feel like writing 3 pages.

[lamboguy]

It may be revenue neutral.... at first. But if that did happen and bettors would be that much happier..... people on the bubble with their ROI's at say 97% would suddenly be profitable.... and cronics like me might move into that 97% ROI category. The biggest thing IMO is to create that many more people that are long term profitable. I think when you can do that the new fans will come. Very oversimplified yes... put I don't feel like writing 3 pages.the idea is not to find more winners in this game, its to find people that enjoy the action that lose. like the guy that owns his own horse that bets him everytime he runs, or the guy that plays numbers. more winners only produce many more losers. you need to find and cultivate about 1 million new peoplet into the racing game. i have a good idea how to get about 100,000 of them.

[InsideThePylons-MW]

What if on track handle tripled ?

Horsemen and track executives would both want to raise takeout immediately so they could get more money.

[andymays]

Horsemen and track executives would both want to raise takeout immediately so they could get more money.
:lol:

Yes, history tell us that. ;) :D :D

[Bruddah]

For years, I have said they (tracks) need to market to put butts in the bleachers. You guys think by lowering the take out that "new butts" will come and gamble. Those "new butts" have no idea that takeout is any percentage, let alone a new lowered take out. Some of the "older butts" might return to the track rather than use on line accounts or other sources. I question that wisdom, as well.

Marketing consistently to attract "new butts" in the bleachers, will make a difference for the long run. In short, this sport needs new blood, or it will continue to die a slow death. Event Marketing to the "new younger butts" in the bleachers is the answer.

JMHO

[jelly]

If the takeout were cut in Half It would be HUGE.



The only people angry would be the other Tracks.

[kenwoodall2]

For years, I have said they (tracks) need to market to put butts in the bleachers. You guys think by lowering the take out that "new butts" will come and gamble. Those "new butts" have no idea that takeout is any percentage, let alone a new lowered take out. Some of the "older butts" might return to the track rather than use on line accounts or other sources. I question that wisdom, as well.

Marketing consistently to attract "new butts" in the bleachers, will make a difference for the long run. In short, this sport needs new blood, or it will continue to die a slow death. Event Marketing to the "new younger butts" in the bleachers is the answer.

JMHO
Since reading this thread I have thought of 5 new major promotions for SA; but Ca racing is crazy, PA members do not like my capping methods, and Extreme Day, MID, Winstar, Jockey's guild and others have not acknowledged 1 promotion they did due to my suggestions.
But here it goes (just 1 of the ideas!): Big ad in all SOCal newspapers- Anyone through the SA gates on an certain Wed-Fri with the ad gets free parking, free admit and programs for up to 5 adults, and handed a coupon for $5 worth of Magna Auto parts; a John Harris meat in-n-out burger, an A + (Jerry) M (oss) CD, and a Bo Derek DVD!

[CincyHorseplayer]

I don't know who it's going to be but one track out there is going to do this for a full meet.And when they do all the other tracks will be scrambling to keep up.Who is the man or woman out there with the foresight and stones to do it??

[magwell]

I don't know who it's going to be but one track out there is going to do this for a full meet.And when they do all the other tracks will be scrambling to keep up.Who is the man or woman out there with the foresight and stones to do it?? Monmouth Park ?

[Stillriledup]

Andrew, i think the problem with chopping the takeout in half is that the rebated whales wouldn't like that because their rebate would shrink to virtually nothing. Whales make up a large chunk of the handle.

[CincyHorseplayer]

Monmouth Park ?

Could be.They seem proactive.Jersey could the campaign of salvation.

Chalk one up for the Sopranos(when and if it happens)!!!:)

[andymays]

Andrew, i think the problem with chopping the takeout in half is that the rebated whales wouldn't like that because their rebate would shrink to virtually nothing. Whales make up a large chunk of the handle.

No, they (Whales) already get significant rebates without going to the track. This is designed for California players, most of whom are not eligible for significant rebates. I'm talking about the guys who go to the track or play from home with anywhere from $500 to 20k on any given day.

[Robert Goren]

Could be.They seem proactive.Jersey could the campaign of salvation.

Chalk one up for the Sopranos(when and if it happens)!!!:)The only thing proactive about Jersey racing is their wanting slots. I have never heard so much as one peep about lower the takeout rates from them.

[CincyHorseplayer]

The only thing proactive about Jersey racing is their wanting slots. I have never heard so much as one peep about lower the takeout rates from them.

Raising purses was pretty big.But for the player you are right.

[Dan H]

Big ad in all SOCal newspapers- Anyone through the SA gates on an certain Wed-Fri with the ad gets free parking, free admit and programs for up to 5 adults, and handed a coupon for $5 worth of Magna Auto parts; a John Harris meat in-n-out burger, an A + (Jerry) M (oss) CD, and a Bo Derek DVD!
You had me at "free parking."

[Stillriledup]

No, they (Whales) already get significant rebates without going to the track. This is designed for California players, most of whom are not eligible for significant rebates. I'm talking about the guys who go to the track or play from home with anywhere from $500 to 20k on any given day.

But my point was that if the takeout drops, so does the whale's rebates which means they bet less. Its going to be hard to triple handle with whales scaling back. Unless, you're just talking about on track handle, than its more than likely it would triple.

[andymays]

But my point was that if the takeout drops, so does the whale's rebates which means they bet less. Its going to be hard to triple handle with whales scaling back. Unless, you're just talking about on track handle, than its more than likely it would triple.

I'm talking about on track handle not total handle. The top 4 largest players are all out of state. Someone can correct me if I'm wrong. I know Dana Parham is out of Vegas.

[affirmedny]

Didn't Laurel try something like this and have it fail?

[macdiarmida]

There is still the state of Cali to deal with that would still want its cut. They are one of the elephants in the room.

Still:
The racing whales are now still indirectly subject to the remaining takeout after rebates are figured in. With this idea, rebates will be quite a bit less but lower track takeout may encourage some whales to come back to the regular pools. I guess also there will be a change in strategy for them to win outright rather than play just for the rebate as I think they do now.

[cj]

The way to start is for all tracks to lower take on WPS pools. It will be a no brainer to see the effect since handle is broken down by type of bet. It is also true that most money goes to exotics so the pain would be felt less in the short term, and there will be pain.

As has been stated many times, it will not work if only a few tracks try, especially lesser tracks. Any gains will be swallowed up as people still play other, higher takeout tracks.

Make all WPS pools 12% takeout and see what happens. Does handle increase in those pools? Does money shift from exotics to straight pools? There is only one way to find out, but racing would rather die a slow, painful death than show some balls and try something different.

[DeanT]

The way to start is for all tracks to lower take on WPS pools. It will be a no brainer to see the effect since handle is broken down by type of bet. It is also true that most money goes to exotics so the pain would be felt less in the short term, and there will be pain.

As has been stated many times, it will not work if only a few tracks try, especially lesser tracks. Any gains will be swallowed up as people still play other, higher takeout tracks.

Make all WPS pools 12% takeout and see what happens. Does handle increase in those pools? Does money shift from exotics to straight pools? There is only one way to find out, but racing would rather die a slow, painful death than show some balls and try something different.

It's a juxtaposition that I have with this sport. And I can not figure it out.

I remember being at a harness sale once, just for a lark. I do not know a hock from a pastern, I don't know a trainer there, nothing. Anyhow, a horse is in the ring and the price is cheap; lines aint bad, trainer aint a juice monkey, and he looked at me. So I put my hand up. New horse.

Stupid, sure. Risky sure. I have a horse. I have no way to get the horse home. Not sure if I can ride him on the highway or what. His knees could be the size of grapefruits for all I know. But it was not that much cash, and if you dont take a shot sometime, you should not have gone there in the first place.

That's horse racing.

This happens every day with weanlings, yearlings, claimers. Risk, risk, risk. People claiming a horse for 100k and he might have a tendon tear. The Green Monkey - nuff said.

Owners and trainers partake in probably one of the most risky games ever - horse ownership.

But ask those same risky people to drop takeout by 0.75% in the win pools to try and grow betting, where every study known to man tells them they will grow the business if they do?

No way, "too risky."

It's one of the most bizarre businesses in history.

[InsideThePylons-MW]

So I put my hand up. New horse.

Wacko

;)

[Stillriledup]

Didn't Laurel try something like this and have it fail?

something like what?

[affirmedny]

something like what?

Having a meet with low takeout. I'm pretty sure they did and business didn't increase.

[therussmeister]

Having a meet with low takeout. I'm pretty sure they did and business didn't increase.
Not an across-the-board takeout reduction. Only certain pools, and it was a very short meet. For a person like me, who makes their own speed and pace figures, and doesn't know anything about local trainers, it wasn't worth it for me to play. Not a long enough meet to try and learn the ins-and-outs of the local circuit.

[Stillriledup]

Having a meet with low takeout. I'm pretty sure they did and business didn't increase.

Its a false non increase and here's why. Because fans aren't going to drop everything they're doing in order to spend years learning the MD circuit so that they can bet into a small pool just because of a small takeout increase.

Tracks who offer these takeout experiments are doing so on small pools, there's no way those pools are going to increase. For example, if Lone Star offers a 10 percent pick three and the pool is 8k, big bettors are not going to bet into that pool because its so small. So, its kind of misleading to think that the pick 3 at Lone Star is going to go from 8k per pool to 100k per pool overnight just because of a takeout reduction. Even with the takeout reduction, its not worth it for large players to drop everything and learn the lone star/texas circuit in order to invest in an 8k pick 3 pool.