Yonkers favorites

[SchagFactorToWin]

Does anyone keep track of the favs at Yonkers? I am looking for the favorite's win rate from 3/19/09-7/10/10 and from 7/10/10 to 8/21/10.

I am in the middle of the mother of all losing streaks and it seems as though the crowd is also getting kicked around. My win rate from 7/10/10 until now is down 40%! But the favorites win rate in those races in which I had a pick are down 30%. I was wondering if it's the same for all Yonkers races.

[Ray2000]

Shag
I've been thinking of putting up a poll on "How's this year going in your Harness Wagering?" because
I'm having my worst year in a decade.
I wonder how many bettors who keep track are in the same boat.

Here's what I have for Yonkers, strike rate about the same, ave payoff :ThmbDown::ThmbDown:



3/19/09-7/10/10
Races Pays AveWin Favwon %fav sumfvwins avefavprice Alwaysbetfav Retonfav ROIbetting fav
3962 $43,321 $10.93 1659 41.9% $6,991.10 $4.21 $7,924.00 $(932.90) -11.77%


7/10/10 to 8/21/10
Races Pays AveWin Favwon %fav sumfvwins avefavprice Alwaysbetfav Retonfav ROIbetting fav
376 $4,537 $12.07 154 41.0% $602.60 $3.91 $752.00 $(149.40) -19.87%

[pandy]

Ray, your pool is a good idea. I put up a poll for my yahoo email group but only 10 people responded, 6 said they used to do better than they are now.

As for Yonkers, my picks have been cold there the past two weeks, but the track is so weird now with the races starting on top of the turn that if your horse doesn't get early position you are in trouble.

[Not4Love]

I started getting back into this game in late 2008. My numbers are showing a big decline from 09 to 2010. I have played mostly Yonkers and Meadowlands with a little Tioga. My Tioga numbers are actually very good. Yes, 09 was a very good year for just getting back, but it's been a struggle for most of this year. Don't even ask about the thoroughbreds.

[pandy]

I am currently trying to create enough noise to help the sport with changes that I feel need to be made. The biggest problem with harness racing today, in my opinion, is the sulky. The races are too fast, period. If you watch the races closely at Yonkers for instance, you can see that drivers are afraid to pull first over against the speed. There is also the open rail, which makes things worse because the driver sitting third knows that he may get clear in the stretch so he sits in. If the horse sitting 4th is a longshot, this leaves the horse 5th the one that has to go first over. By the time he reaches the leader, the pace setter has had too much of a breather. These are just some of the problems and you see it at all tracks, although the half mile tracks have the most problems. Things like the slanted gate help, but the sport is in trouble and I don't see it getting any better if speed continues to rule. Harness racing cannot exist is there is not a good consistent outside flow in most races. Right now, the cover trip is actually not a good trip anymore because of dull flows, bad cover, wide trips, inside speed bias, etc. The only good trips are front end, pocket, or first over and clear the lead quickly. The off centered super bikes, like the Harmer, have made the game too speed favoring. Also, it's almost impossible to handicap using race shapes. In other words, years ago you could anticipate a fast pace and bet a closer. Now, even if you do this, and the pace is hot, the front runner often hangs on or even pulls away.

[SchagFactorToWin]

Shag
I've been thinking of putting up a poll on "How's this year going in your Harness Wagering?" because
I'm having my worst year in a decade.
I wonder how many bettors who keep track are in the same boat.

Here's what I have for Yonkers, strike rate about the same, ave payoff :ThmbDown::ThmbDown:

Rats- I was hoping I could blame the crowd!

Actually, the year has been going great until the beginning of July. I've had more over-$80 exactas than all of 2009. But as of July 10, Race 6- KABOOM!

[Ray2000]

I am currently trying to create enough noise to help the sport with changes that I feel need to be made. The biggest problem with harness racing today, in my opinion, is the sulky. The races are too fast, period. If you watch the races closely at Yonkers for instance, you can see that drivers are afraid to pull first over against the speed. There is also the open rail, which makes things worse because the driver sitting third knows that he may get clear in the stretch so he sits in. If the horse sitting 4th is a longshot, this leaves the horse 5th the one that has to go first over. By the time he reaches the leader, the pace setter has had too much of a breather. These are just some of the problems and you see it at all tracks, although the half mile tracks have the most problems. Things like the slanted gate help, but the sport is in trouble and I don't see it getting any better if speed continues to rule. Harness racing cannot exist is there is not a good consistent outside flow in most races. Right now, the cover trip is actually not a good trip anymore because of dull flows, bad cover, wide trips, inside speed bias, etc. The only good trips are front end, pocket, or first over and clear the lead quickly. The off centered super bikes, like the Harmer, have made the game too speed favoring. Also, it's almost impossible to handicap using race shapes. In other words, years ago you could anticipate a fast pace and bet a closer. Now, even if you do this, and the pace is hot, the front runner often hangs on or even pulls away.

Since the crowd becomes more and more knowledgeable in using early speed for making selections, shouldn't the tote reflect this? And even if closers are having a tougher time catching the front runners, the reward should still be there with higher payoffs when they do. Problem is the frequency of cashing a ticket goes down which raises the disgust factor.


Also, does the same speed effect, whether bike or breeding or both, show up in European racing where driver tactics have been historically different. (Move out, grind out 2 - 3 wide) or does racing on the trot mitigate it?

[pandy]

I wrote a column for Harness Eye last week and did some research on the Pick 4 payoff at Yonkers and the outside posts. The big Pick 4 payoffs that are in the 5 figures usually have a longshot or even two longshots from posts 7 and 8 and most of the longshots do come from off the pace at Yonkers. But they are tough to come up with and they pay $50 to $100.