after a rough day...

[elhelmete]

I was a recreational player for a long time, still am, really. Never will bet horses for a living and that's fine with me. I really just want my enjoyment of the sport to be coupled with a little financial gain. So in the last 6 months or so have I really tried to study the game to improve my capping skills. Books, replays, bulletin boards, post-mortems, podcasts, etc.

After the last few days playing, most notably yesterday, I have realized I'm only seeing half the picture.

I need to learn to bet better.

Yesterday I could see race shapes, picked all the leading contenders, found legitimate overlays, etc., all the good stuff.

But I bet wrong. Every time I should have bet an exotic, I bet straight, vice versa, boxed when I should have wheeled a KH, no or wrong saver bets, etc. etc.

At least now I know what I'll be studying and experimenting with for the next few months.

[46zilzal]

Randomness reared its head as IT OFTEN DOES

[TrifectaMike]

Randomness reared its head as IT OFTEN DOES

Get off it already.

You read a book. You learned a new word, randomness. You remind me a of a child when he first learned the word fuk, could say it often enough.

Try a new word. It is VARIANCE.

Mike

[46zilzal]

Get off it already.

You read a book. You learned a new word, randomness. You remind me a of a child when he first learned the word fuk, could say it often enough.

Try a new word. It is VARIANCE.

Mike

Randomness has been a staple in wagering decisions as long as I can recall. It was only the recent works of Talel (Fooled by Randomness. The Black Swan) and The Drunkard's Walk by Leonard Mlodinow, that substantiated that concept along with the way to discern much of it via BLINK.

[SchagFactorToWin]

I was a recreational player for a long time, still am, really. Never will bet horses for a living and that's fine with me. I really just want my enjoyment of the sport to be coupled with a little financial gain. So in the last 6 months or so have I really tried to study the game to improve my capping skills. Books, replays, bulletin boards, post-mortems, podcasts, etc.

After the last few days playing, most notably yesterday, I have realized I'm only seeing half the picture.

I need to learn to bet better.

Yesterday I could see race shapes, picked all the leading contenders, found legitimate overlays, etc., all the good stuff.

But I bet wrong. Every time I should have bet an exotic, I bet straight, vice versa, boxed when I should have wheeled a KH, no or wrong saver bets, etc. etc.

At least now I know what I'll be studying and experimenting with for the next few months.

It took me a long time to figure out that there's a difference between handicapping and wagering. I wish I had this forum in the 1980s!

I'm trying to develop a methodology that combines them- my Unified Theory of Racing.

[lamboguy]

just remember this-------GOD HAS IT IN FOR HORSEPLAYERS----------------

[mannyberrios]

just remember this-------GOD HAS IT IN FOR HORSEPLAYERS----------------:1: NO! that is not true!

[Light]

I really just want my enjoyment of the sport to be coupled with a little financial gain.


We all want that. I had a very good day playing Ferndale today. Could have been better with smarter betting.Very satisfying to win their finale of the meet at a distance of 1 5/8 and watch my 10-1 shot go w-w. They went around 3 or 4 times (lost count) in that bullring with Frank M announcing. Fun to watch.

The point is I know why I did well today. I stayed with one track that had a card I felt competent to handicap and applied a little concentration. Its really that simple. KISS and the power of concentration is the difference. But I don't have the time I used to to play the ponies and when I try to shortcut it,it doesn't usually work.Now if I could only remember to take my own advice...

[lamboguy]

We all want that. I had a very good day playing Ferndale today. Could have been better with smarter betting.Very satisfying to win their finale of the meet at a distance of 1 5/8 and watch my 10-1 shot go w-w. They went around 3 or 4 times (lost count) in that bullring with Frank M announcing. Fun to watch.

The point is I know why I did well today. I stayed with one track that had a card I felt competent to handicap and applied a little concentration. Its really that simple. KISS and the power of concentration is the difference. But I don't have the time I used to to play the ponies and when I try to shortcut it,it doesn't usually work.Now if I could only remember to take my own advice...
personally, i am looking forward to the humbolt county meet again next year. i love mule racing. and humbolt gives you lots of that.

[raybo]

I was a recreational player for a long time, still am, really. Never will bet horses for a living and that's fine with me. I really just want my enjoyment of the sport to be coupled with a little financial gain. So in the last 6 months or so have I really tried to study the game to improve my capping skills. Books, replays, bulletin boards, post-mortems, podcasts, etc.

After the last few days playing, most notably yesterday, I have realized I'm only seeing half the picture.

I need to learn to bet better.

Yesterday I could see race shapes, picked all the leading contenders, found legitimate overlays, etc., all the good stuff.

But I bet wrong. Every time I should have bet an exotic, I bet straight, vice versa, boxed when I should have wheeled a KH, no or wrong saver bets, etc. etc.

At least now I know what I'll be studying and experimenting with for the next few months.

Sounds all too familiar in this game. Many players are "all over the place" in their wagering. "Diversity" may be acceptable in the financial markets, but in my experience, "specialization" is an important key regarding success as a handicapper.

Find out what works best, for you, and concentrate all your efforts there. For me, it's superfectas, but, most players can't get their hands around all the intricacies involved in that wager type.

[kenwoodall2]

Study the charts closer!

[billyball]

August 22, 2010 8:42 PM Ferndale 9 0.50 E5 (PWHL) 6 / 7 / 2 / 4 / 1, 5 $1.00 $120.05



My .50 lucky P5 at Ferndale-----never would hit if I would pump up the bet.

[Shelby]

I have a feeling I shouldn't even respond to this....

BUT, here goes

I think that sometimes one can study too much. When I do that, I second guess myself and end up like this---> :bang:

Go with your first picks and stick with them.

And, may the horse Gods be with you :)

[Stillriledup]

You mentioned replays as one of your tools. Here's some advice as to how you can become a better bettor.

Become a better handicapper. Evaluate those replays and learn each and every horse and know them like the back of your hand. Then, your 'betting' will get better.

Lets face it, if you know who the winner is going to be and know who the 2nd best horse is in the race and the 3rd best etc, you don't have to really possess any 'betting skill', you just punch a cold 1-2-3 trifecta and watch the race. My example is a bit extreme, but when you know the winner and you are a total expert on evaluating the talent of each racehorse, than you're on your way to becoming a more complete player.

[Robert Goren]

I remember when I was playing a lot of online poker, I never read a book that didn't cost me money, at least in the short run. Remember books are talking about very specific instances and are not generally applicable across a wide spectrum of races. I think that trying to handicap the pools is a very hard game. My advice is to pick one and master it. It doesn't have to be the win pool. There are posters who go after tris and supers and almost never bet a win ticket. There are some who go after pick 3s and/or pick 4s The only thing I have to say about "splashing" in those pools make sure you have the bankroll to do it.

[carlonr]

You mentioned replays as one of your tools. Here's some advice as to how you can become a better bettor.

Become a better handicapper. Evaluate those replays and learn each and every horse and know them like the back of your hand. Then, your 'betting' will get better.

Lets face it, if you know who the winner is going to be and know who the 2nd best horse is in the race and the 3rd best etc, you don't have to really possess any 'betting skill', you just punch a cold 1-2-3 trifecta and watch the race. My example is a bit extreme, but when you know the winner and you are a total expert on evaluating the talent of each racehorse, than you're on your way to becoming a more complete player.

Not until one understands pace. That is why, for the most part, the 3 "best horses" do not a trifecta make.

[precocity]

just remember this-------GOD HAS IT IN FOR HORSEPLAYERS----------------
:lol:
just do a 1$tri 5 horse box :ThmbUp:

[classhandicapper]

I was a recreational player for a long time, still am, really. Never will bet horses for a living and that's fine with me. I really just want my enjoyment of the sport to be coupled with a little financial gain. So in the last 6 months or so have I really tried to study the game to improve my capping skills. Books, replays, bulletin boards, post-mortems, podcasts, etc.

After the last few days playing, most notably yesterday, I have realized I'm only seeing half the picture.

I need to learn to bet better.

Yesterday I could see race shapes, picked all the leading contenders, found legitimate overlays, etc., all the good stuff.

But I bet wrong. Every time I should have bet an exotic, I bet straight, vice versa, boxed when I should have wheeled a KH, no or wrong saver bets, etc. etc.

At least now I know what I'll be studying and experimenting with for the next few months.

I've had period like that in my life including periods where all my small bets won and all my large bets lost.

I think the best approach for getting yourself out of that kind of funk is to flatten your bets and build rules/guidelines that will take some of the subjectivity out of it.